RE: Magazine explosions (Full Version)

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Ron Saueracker -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 9:51:03 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tankerace

Wrong dude. 2 cases.

On 21 November 1944, the battleship Kongo took 1 torpedo (some sources speculate 2) from the submarine Sealion II. After a few hours, she was dead in the water and sinking. Then, without anywarning, she blew up and sank.

On 25 November 1941, HMS Barham took 3 torpedoes from U-331 in the Mediterranian. As she bgan to list very rapidly, her magazines suddenly exploded and she capsized and sank very quickly.


Kongo blew up due to her boilers going I believe. Progressive flooding caused her to capsize.



Tankerace -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 10:19:52 AM)

Eh? Report I read, supposedly cited from the official Japanese history, claim her forward 14" magazine went off, rather unexpectedly.



Tankerace -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 10:27:13 AM)

As cited by Eclipse: The Last Battles of the IJN - Leyte to Kure 1944 to 1945., the author, Anthony P. Tully, spent some 20 years researching the Kongo, and based on the 4 large detonations in the forward part of the ship, and the nature of the damage, concluded that the foreward magazine went off.



Ron Saueracker -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 10:28:30 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tankerace

Eh? Report I read, supposedly cited from the official Japanese history, claim her forward 14" magazine went off, rather unexpectedly.


Two versions. I read one on the IJN page (Niho Kaigun or something like that there[:'(]) dealing specifically with Kongos loss and it is a convincing arguement. Barham was a boiler detonation originally as well, with sympathetic magazine detonations followingI believe.



tsimmonds -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 4:09:33 PM)

quote:

As to Barham, boilers flood. They would have to be cranked wide open to blow.

Water would flash into superheated steam when it came into contact with the boilers. Yes, the fire would be extinguished, but it isn't just the fire that is hot. The boilers themselves represent a significant thermal mass. All that energy would have to go somewhere. In a similar way I have read about an accident in a steel mill in which the molten contents of a crucible spilled onto a concrete floor. The floor itself exploded when the water contained throughout its porous structure flashed instantly into steam.

Having said all that, here is a photo of Barham from a slightly different angle from the one we are used to seeing. The explosion seems to come from the vicinity of the after turrets rather than from amidships. The Brits do say that the magazine, not the boilers, went up.

[image]local://upfiles/10816/Xv648620588.jpg[/image]



Fallschirmjager -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 6:48:51 PM)

Math has to be wrong. In 3 surface combats on the same night I got 2 magazine explosions in one combat and one more in the other two.
4 in one night should be excedingly rare.



moses -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 6:55:34 PM)

I've don't ever recall having had a mag explosion. Is this a new issue with the patch?



Nikademus -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 7:30:49 PM)

no. this was observed well before the patch.



Mr.Frag -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 8:32:26 PM)

Keep in mind that surface combats are bloodier now as per your requests.

This means you will be seeing more of this type of result simply because combats last more rounds even without any change in the odds.



Ron Saueracker -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 9:35:13 PM)

In the old Avalon Hill "Bismarck" Advanced Rules, there was a secondary roll for a magazine explosion. Might work well here for different types of ships. Keep the 4% chance, but use this as the qualifier for the actual chance for a magazine explosion. CVs were really just big gas stations with a fireworks emporium, so the second roll should be a higher percentage for example.

Possible breakdown...

Initial chance for magazine explosion check roll instead of explosion: 4%

Check roll for type (reason):

CV 20% (lightly armoured magazines, high level damage control but ordanace stowage)
BB 5% (armoured magazines)
BC/CA/CL 10% (lightly armoured magazines)
all other warships 15% (flash and handling protection)
AKs,TKs, ASs, ADs, 50% (wide variety of cargo from, ammo and av gas very hazardous)
AEs, MLEs 75% (ordinance ships)
all other auxilliaries 30% (lesser chance and amount of hazardous cargo)



Nikademus -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 9:42:24 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag

Keep in mind that surface combats are bloodier now as per your requests.

This means you will be seeing more of this type of result simply because combats last more rounds even without any change in the odds.


No, not a connection in this case. The requests, at least the ones i made were for more decisive surface warship vs merchant vessel combat, but merchants appear to be exempt from the critical hit rule. I have never seen one Merchant class ship suffer a "magazine explosion"

warship vs warship combat remains pretty much as in terms of combat rounds exchanged. Further, airplane vs warship combat is also unchanged but is impacted by the critical hit frequency as well.



Nikademus -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 9:46:50 PM)

only problem i see here is that some warship types, regardless of armor would be less likely to see massive ammo explosions. Take DD's for example, pretty much unarmored, but in most cases their ammo was self conained (shell/charge) so there were no "powder magazines" to set off. One reason why you dont see alot of DD's exploding. Such a situation may have well contributed CL Boise avoiding that fate when a 8 inch diving shell penetrated her forward magazine in 42.

For simplicity's sake, i'd prefer just making it 1% per belt/deck penetration and making sure the math is functioning correctly. 1% is further justified vs older wargames again because of the smaller # of HL's two of three majors of which can trigger this event (Tower armor/Belt armor/Deck armor) Weapons mount hits always include either a deck/belt HL being struck as well.



Ron Saueracker -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 9:57:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

only problem i see here is that some warship types, regardless of armor would be less likely to see massive ammo explosions. Take DD's for example, pretty much unarmored, but in most cases their ammo was self conained (shell/charge) so there were no "powder magazines" to set off. One reason why you dont see alot of DD's exploding. Such a situation may have well contributed CL Boise avoiding that fate when a 8 inch diving shell penetrated her forward magazine in 42.

For simplicity's sake, i'd prefer just making it 1% per belt/deck penetration and making sure the math is functioning correctly. 1% is further justified vs older wargames again because of the smaller # of HL's two of three majors of which can trigger this event (Tower armor/Belt armor/Deck armor) Weapons mount hits always include either a deck/belt HL being struck as well.


What about auxilliaries? I've yet to see an AK explode. They are too darn tough right now.



tsimmonds -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 10:32:46 PM)

quote:

Such a situation may have well contributed CL Boise avoiding that fate when a 8 inch diving shell penetrated her forward magazine in 42.


Boise's sister Savannah was struck by an FX-1400 guided bomb (the same weapon that sank Italian BB Roma) while off Salerno. This was the largest bomb to strike any US warship during WWII. It went through the roof of #3 gunhouse, passed down the barbette, and 600 pounds of Amatol exploded in the midst of the forward magazines. But whether because the flooding was so rapid or because all of the 5" and 6" propellant charges were in brass cartridges, there was no devastating secondary explosion.



Nikademus -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 10:57:09 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ron Saueracker

What about auxilliaries? I've yet to see an AK explode. They are too darn tough right now.


I think loaded merchants should be elligable for a critical hit. In this case instead of a "magazine explosion" per se, it would be an munitions explosion or fuel explosion. I'm also playing around with merchants with DUR halved. I'm liking the results i am seeing.

KA-BOOM! [;)]



Ron Saueracker -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 11:02:26 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ron Saueracker

What about auxilliaries? I've yet to see an AK explode. They are too darn tough right now.


I think loaded merchants should be elligable for a critical hit. In this case instead of a "magazine explosion" per se, it would be an munitions explosion or fuel explosion.

KA-BOOM! [;)]



This is exactly why I included all the different % chance of explosions for various ship types. For game purposes, a magazine explosion does not neccesarily have to be from a magazine hit for all ship types. The point is that it is fatal and can be used to simulate a variety of causes for massive explosions.



Rabbakahn -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 11:04:57 PM)

Howdy,

Just curious. In the combats with magazine explosions, how many penetrating hits are there? How many hits total?

Answers to those questions will go a long way to help know if the results are probable. Sometimes our gut feeling is not in line with the resulting probability distribution at hand.

btw, no I do not yet own the game. I do enjoy reading these fine forums everyday until I receive the game for my upcoming birthday or christmas. (digging through my wallet)

Frederick



Nikademus -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 11:27:09 PM)

for simplicity's sake though....it would just be easier for the devs to include merchants as elligable. In this case, i'd agree, a slightly higher % for merchants could be warrented but i wouldn't want to see "too" big an increase. After all...not all merhcants will have volitile cargo aboard. Maybe give merchants a 5% chance.....all warship types 1%



Tankerace -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/7/2004 11:27:42 PM)

In my first 1.3 surface action, here is the breakdown of hits sustained by ship:

Prince of Wales fires 14" main battery against Chikuma (I think it was her)

Shell 1: Miss
Shell 2: Hit on 8" turret, turret destroyed, penetration, magazine explodes
Shell 3: Miss
Shell 4: hit
Shell 5: hit
Shell 6: hit
Shell 7: hit
Shell 8: hit
Shell 9: Miss
Shell 10: Miss

On the second one, HMS Mauritus (Light cruiser) versus Mogami

Shell 1: Miss
Shell 2: Miss
Shell 3: 8" turret hit, destroyed, magazine explodes!
2 or 3 other shell hits, all belt penetrations.

However, Mogami got off 3 more salvoes, and disabled Mauritus, before sinking along with Chikuma.

On the plus side, with mag explosions like this, I think it will really help out my War Plan Orange mod. People will be more cautios about deploying their battlecruisers.



Black Cat -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 1:55:52 AM)

That`s extraordinary shooting ( hits ) for the POW, I have never seen that in many, many starts of pre 1.30 Games.

Have the upped the ships rating in the DB ?, or perhaps added another 4 gun turret[:D]



EUBanana -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 2:02:19 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wolftrap

I think magazine explosions could use a little work also. I just sunk the Hyuga with one well placed Dutch torpedo... BOOM!!! I'm not sure there's any precedent to torpedoes causing a magazine explosion in a battleship.


The German pre-dreadnought Pommern was hit by a torpedo in the closing stages of the Battle of Jutland in 1916, and was blown to pieces as a result in what was almost certainly a magazine explosion.



Rabbakahn -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 4:09:47 AM)

If 4% chance of penetrating hit causes mag explosion, then P(1)=6(.04)(.96)^5 = 0.196 approx.

We should then expect to see the PoW vs Chikuma happen one time five (about). Is this combat typical?

If the chance was changed to 1%, then P(0)=(.99)^6=0.94 approx. or .06 probability of at least one mag explosion.

One note: I wonder if the check for explosion was done on the penetrations after the first. If not, then the calculated probability is not right.

Frederick



Tankerace -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 4:18:29 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Black Cat

That`s extraordinary shooting ( hits ) for the POW, I have never seen that in many, many starts of pre 1.30 Games.

Have the upped the ships rating in the DB ?, or perhaps added another 4 gun turret[:D]


This was her third salvo, at a night range of 2,000 yards. I too was surprised. So much so I thought the game looped. But, it was a full 10 gun broadside.



Hard Sarge -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 5:05:14 AM)

Hi Niki

quote:

Interestingly enough, i have never seen a merchant suffer one. They seem to be either exempt or the code is working properly in their case.


I didn't know that Merchants had Mags

:)

HARD_Sarge



SteveV -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 5:26:32 AM)

Couple quick comments as I chime in:

1) 14 inchers at 2000 yards *should* penetrate and have a high probability of major damage. I have zero problem with the model for that result v. a CA. The bigger problem would be the 14 inchers passing through before exploding.

2) I would love to see AE's and tankers carrying *fuel*, not oil, have an extremely high probability of a magazine explosion. On the Arctic convoys, the merchant marine crew of AE's didn't even bother wearing life jackets. They knew that if a UBoat hit them, it was curtains. Playing a PBEM game now and hit an AE with a torp and it was a simple hit, not big "blooie" like I was hoping for. Can't imagine this would be too tough to include and adds one of those nice details that are so appreciated.

SteveV



Ron Saueracker -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 6:03:32 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SteveV

Couple quick comments as I chime in:

1) 14 inchers at 2000 yards *should* penetrate and have a high probability of major damage. I have zero problem with the model for that result v. a CA. The bigger problem would be the 14 inchers passing through before exploding.

2) I would love to see AE's and tankers carrying *fuel*, not oil, have an extremely high probability of a magazine explosion. On the Arctic convoys, the merchant marine crew of AE's didn't even bother wearing life jackets. They knew that if a UBoat hit them, it was curtains. Playing a PBEM game now and hit an AE with a torp and it was a simple hit, not big "blooie" like I was hoping for. Can't imagine this would be too tough to include and adds one of those nice details that are so appreciated.

SteveV


Even bigger problem is the incessant 2000 yrd engagements between battleships. Gimme a break. There was one or two instances of this point blank range battleship involved brawls in the whole war in every ocean. Be nice if only the small fry closed to these ranges at anything approaching the frequency we see here.



Nikademus -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 8:22:53 AM)

"Niki?"

Sounds like someone's favorite cat. [;)]

How about......."Cargo Hold full of Ammunition Explosion" (will that fit on the screen???!!!!) [:'(]



dtravel -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 8:50:06 AM)

That may not fit, but "Oh sh.... BOOM!!!" should. [:D]



Tankerace -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 8:58:05 AM)

ooh, ooh, how about KABLOOEY!!!!!!!!!!! followed by You sank my battleship.



fbastos -> RE: Magazine explosions (11/8/2004 8:58:39 AM)

quote:

In my first 1.3 surface action, here is the breakdown of hits sustained by ship:

Prince of Wales fires 14" main battery against Chikuma (I think it was her)

Shell 1: Miss
Shell 2: Hit on 8" turret, turret destroyed, penetration, magazine explodes
Shell 3: Miss
Shell 4: hit
Shell 5: hit
Shell 6: hit
Shell 7: hit
Shell 8: hit
Shell 9: Miss
Shell 10: Miss

On the second one, HMS Mauritus (Light cruiser) versus Mogami

Shell 1: Miss
Shell 2: Miss
Shell 3: 8" turret hit, destroyed, magazine explodes!
2 or 3 other shell hits, all belt penetrations.


Hey, Tanker? How did you get that information? By looking in the animation or is there some report with that?

F.



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