RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (Full Version)

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Speedysteve -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 2:22:49 PM)

Hi String,

I believe it is just covering the period from when the 8th entered service until the end of the war (just looking at the 8th not BC for example). I also believe the loss rate was 1:1 on average against bombers. Sure I know you have the Schweinfurt raids which out balance it but ON AVERAGE across the war the losses were 1:1. When escorts came on the scene you can forget that ratio.........

Regards,

Steven




Sardaukar -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 2:25:03 PM)

Well, going in low against competent fighter opposition and heavy flak will give results similar like Schweinfurt raid. I don't see anything wrong with those results..maybe I'd adjust the ratio of destroyed/damaged more towards damaged, though...but that can be just FOW.
Unescorted bombers against heavy fighter opposition was quickly discovered to be not a good idea. It was done basicly because there were no fighters with enough range and the targets were deemed more valuable than planes and crews. One reason why Brits went to night time bombing was their bad experiences about daylight bombing in early WW II.

Gamewise, I never fly 4-engined bombers lower than 15 000 ft. Even 2-engined rarely go under 10 000 ft against land targets. Flak can be devastating under 10 000 ft.

Cheers,

M.S.




Speedysteve -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 2:33:23 PM)

Hi M.S,

You're right going in loan against heavy flak and decent heavy fighters should lead to heavy losses BUT
Jap flak is not German flak or anywhere near it and a Tony or Tojo ain't a 190. I'm not going to make anymore claims now until i've done a lot of tests. Lets do the tests and see what they bring up. As I said before maybe all is well and good and i'm concerned over nothing [:)]

Regards,

Steven




bstarr -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 3:02:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: doktorblood

Oh I'm sure B-17 crews claimed more scores than any others. Hell, gunners from every B-17 in the formation would be shooting at the same fighters; if one went down they all thought they hit it.



Yep, that's the way it seems to me. German loses were never close to allied bomber claims. I can't recall the source, but I remember one book stating that bombers very seldom shot down fighters, they just drove them off. It makes sense, really. A fighter takes a few hits will probably escape - it's not like the B-17 is going to give chase or anything. (Now that's a mental picture)




Sardaukar -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 3:14:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedy

Hi M.S,

You're right going in loan against heavy flak and decent heavy fighters should lead to heavy losses BUT
Jap flak is not German flak or anywhere near it and a Tony or Tojo ain't a 190. I'm not going to make anymore claims now until i've done a lot of tests. Lets do the tests and see what they bring up. As I said before maybe all is well and good and i'm concerned over nothing [:)]

Regards,

Steven


Yea, Japanese planes are not FW-190 A-8 (for example) in firepower..well, George may be close with 4x20 mm, though. Still, any aircraft with 20 mm or heavier armament was able to bring down B-17 (any model, even the "gunship" YB-40 model).
I don't think Japanese 20 mm were quite as effective in muzzle velocity as German ones, but their effect in target were close each other, AFAIK.
Then I'm starting to get concerned if light-armed Oscars start to shoot down droves of B-17s [:)]. But I agree, this could use some testing.

Cheers,

M.S.




castor troy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 5:13:57 PM)

My opinion: Yes heavy bomber losses are REALLY REALLY too high. And Iīm playing as Japanese. Against AI I shoot those B17 down just like they were WWI aircraft. Have a look at my 2 Rufe daitais stationed at Gili Gili which is attacked regularly by AI with unescorted B17, about 25 - 30 B17 per attack. These are my best Rufe pilots, there are others also with B17 kills. They never fought an other plane, so all kills are B17. Not to mention what my Tonies are doing to the B17 which I just brought in.


[image]local://upfiles/13774/EDC758CFE7B043FC862334E9797EB72B.jpg[/image]




castor troy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 5:18:14 PM)

And here are the total A2A losses of B17! In return I lost about 10 Rufes and 2 or 3 Tonies. My pilots are really experienced (all 75-99) but I think it should just be impossible to shoot down these amount of B17 with Rufes. Even not with my Tonies which are my best anti bomber weapon at the moment.



[image]local://upfiles/13774/1DC95079406C40CD95150BA48F535A4C.jpg[/image]

So whatīs the ratio? In my case 173/15. 1 to 11!!! And that with Rufe as the most used ac in my case! THATīS JUST NUTS!!!!!![:(][:(][:(][:(][:(]




freeboy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 5:25:41 PM)

what was the experience level of the 17's?




tsimmonds -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 5:36:55 PM)

quote:

what was the experience level of the 17's?


exactly.




Speedysteve -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 5:37:20 PM)

Interesting Castor Troy. More tests and results the merrier. I hope to and plan on doing a lot of detailed tests over the weekend (provided my PBEM opponents slow down on their turns [;)]). We'll see what happens.

Go Rufe's [;)]




Speedysteve -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 5:38:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: irrelevant

quote:

what was the experience level of the 17's?


exactly.


I agree that more info is needed - height of bombing. Leadership values. Morale etc.

When I do my tests I plan to test and record a lot (leader values, exp, morale, fatigue, altitude changes, plane types, range to target size of airfield etc)




castor troy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 5:44:48 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: freeboy

what was the experience level of the 17's?


They are in the 60s. But morale is low now because theyīve been slaughtered for a while now. Theyīre attacking between 6.000 and 19.000 feet and my CAP is always on 15.000 feet. My daitais are high experienced but I think not only the experience should count here when attacking these monsters with FLOAT PLANES, repeat FLOAT PLANES. Why are we talking about leaders, experience or moral? Look at the results folks!! If float planes were so effective against B17, hey, why didnīt the German put their 500 best pilots of the Luftwaffe into some float planes and took down 200 of a 500 B17 raid over Germany! [:-][:-] Weīre talking about Rufes and the German had enough problems with Fw190 and Me109 to kill the bombers off.




Speedysteve -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 5:53:53 PM)

Castor I do agree that at FACE VALUE it does seem a bit much for Rufe's to be shooting down forts but maybe the following info would be helpful anyhow -

How many missions has this occurred?
Exp, morale and fatigue levels of all involved?
Altitude and what affect it has on your results?
Flak at site?
Level of airfield?
Sound Detector involved?
Numbers of planes involved?

Regards,

Steven




freeboy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 6:16:41 PM)

I want to see the plane by plane nuts and bolts, unfortunately we cannot.. it would be interesting.. just a note .. I saw a lot of 17's go down and always wondered how and why??? as the game progressed I started to escort them.. if able to just seems this model really does not like long rang non escorted heavies.. ie normally damaged cannot make it back etc




Speedysteve -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 6:25:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: freeboy

I want to see the plane by plane nuts and bolts, unfortunately we cannot.. it would be interesting.. just a note .. I saw a lot of 17's go down and always wondered how and why??? as the game progressed I started to escort them.. if able to just seems this model really does not like long rang non escorted heavies.. ie normally damaged cannot make it back etc


That doesn't sound right to me if thats happening. I agree that unescorted losses should be higher but these guys are known for their ruggedness and durability




castor troy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 6:50:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedy

Castor I do agree that at FACE VALUE it does seem a bit much for Rufe's to be shooting down forts but maybe the following info would be helpful anyhow -

How many missions has this occurred?
Exp, morale and fatigue levels of all involved?
Altitude and what affect it has on your results?
Flak at site?
Level of airfield?
Sound Detector involved?
Numbers of planes involved?

Regards,

Steven



I think about 30 - 40 attacks now. No matter how much I kill off, every turn there are coming more. Always about 25 -30. My fighters are high experienced with about 75-80 average exeperience each daitai. B17 with about 60 exp. Moral of my daitais is high, not so with the B17. I canīt really see great differences no matter at what altitude they come in (6000-19000), so my fighters stay at 15000. AF is size 5, 2 sound detectors. About 25-30 B17 each attack and 20-25 Tonies and 10-12 Rufes now.




castor troy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 6:53:48 PM)

Hereīs the last combat report :


[image]local://upfiles/13774/DCD2D64F653640CEA18B86D0F27D6EDA.jpg[/image]

Attack was totally fought off and a total of 13 was lost referring to the ac losses list. Hey, these B17 in WITP are not the B17 which flew in RL over Europe.




Speedysteve -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 6:58:05 PM)

Thanks for that Castor. Tests are always good. More the merrier. I hope to have a lot more after the weekend.

Steven




Mr.Frag -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 7:04:46 PM)

quote:

I think about 30 - 40 attacks now. No matter how much I kill off, every turn there are coming more. Always about 25 -30. My fighters are high experienced with about 75-80 average exeperience each daitai. B17 with about 60 exp. Moral of my daitais is high, not so with the B17. I canīt really see great differences no matter at what altitude they come in (6000-19000), so my fighters stay at 15000. AF is size 5, 2 sound detectors. About 25-30 B17 each attack and 20-25 Tonies and 10-12 Rufes now.


These attacks running non-stop? Morale is probably in the toilet which is going to affect results.




Speedysteve -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 7:10:15 PM)

Ok this is what i've decided on my tests:

Will vary the following for each sets of attacks (10 per round):

Number of planes involved
Leaders
Experience of pilots
Range of attack
Target airfield
Length of attack (continuous, every 2 days every 3 days etc)
Altitude

1. Forts against Zero
2. Forts against Oscar 1
3. Forts against Tonies
4. Forts against Ki84A
5. Superforts against Zero
6. Superforts against Oscar 1
7. Superforts against Tonies
8. Superforts against Ki84A

What do you all think? Any suggestions?

Regards,

Steven




Mike Scholl -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 7:13:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

They are in the 60s. But morale is low now because theyīve been slaughtered for a while now. Theyīre attacking between 6.000 and 19.000 feet and my CAP is always on 15.000 feet. My daitais are high experienced but I think not only the experience should count here when attacking these monsters with FLOAT PLANES, repeat FLOAT PLANES. Why are we talking about leaders, experience or moral? Look at the results folks!! If float planes were so effective against B17, hey, why didnīt the German put their 500 best pilots of the Luftwaffe into some float planes and took down 200 of a 500 B17 raid over Germany! [:-][:-] Weīre talking about Rufes and the German had enough problems with Fw190 and Me109 to kill the bombers off.


CASTOR. You are absolutely right, the results ARE rediculous. The B-17's are fully trained and have some experiance if they are in the 60's, and it's not like these pilots need to refine their air-to-air tactics and skills. 60's should be ample for holding pretty tight formations, which exposes any aircraft attacking to massed defensive fire. More than enough to deal with most Japanese fighters with their light armament and construction no matter how "experianced" they are. This is NOT a dogfight! It's a flying porcupine, with the Japanese trying to get close enough to bite without getting a facefull of quils.

The system wasn't that good to start with, and with the additional hamstringing of Allied capabilities that the Japanese Fanboys have lobbied into the game, it's gotten worse.
The "kill ratio" you are reporting is way beyond ahistorical. It's idiotic.




castor troy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 7:50:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag

quote:

I think about 30 - 40 attacks now. No matter how much I kill off, every turn there are coming more. Always about 25 -30. My fighters are high experienced with about 75-80 average exeperience each daitai. B17 with about 60 exp. Moral of my daitais is high, not so with the B17. I canīt really see great differences no matter at what altitude they come in (6000-19000), so my fighters stay at 15000. AF is size 5, 2 sound detectors. About 25-30 B17 each attack and 20-25 Tonies and 10-12 Rufes now.


These attacks running non-stop? Morale is probably in the toilet which is going to affect results.


Nearly non-stop. I think 6 or 7 attacks in 10 days. But the low morale is the big advantage of the B17 because thatīs why only 8 or 9 are killed and than the rest is heading home. At the beginning of the attacks even more were killed because they didnīt break off the attack. So itīs just good for them that their morale is low. I couldnīt see a difference in their performance. They didnīt shoot more RUFES down but more of the "mighty" B17 were shot down.




Mr.Frag -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 7:52:28 PM)

quote:

So itīs just good for them that their morale is low.


Actually not, if it was high, you'd have a reverse situation ... more fighters would be shot down and *they* would be the ones breaking off. Morale is a critical part of air combat.




castor troy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 7:55:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

They are in the 60s. But morale is low now because theyīve been slaughtered for a while now. Theyīre attacking between 6.000 and 19.000 feet and my CAP is always on 15.000 feet. My daitais are high experienced but I think not only the experience should count here when attacking these monsters with FLOAT PLANES, repeat FLOAT PLANES. Why are we talking about leaders, experience or moral? Look at the results folks!! If float planes were so effective against B17, hey, why didnīt the German put their 500 best pilots of the Luftwaffe into some float planes and took down 200 of a 500 B17 raid over Germany! [:-][:-] Weīre talking about Rufes and the German had enough problems with Fw190 and Me109 to kill the bombers off.


CASTOR. You are absolutely right, the results ARE rediculous. The B-17's are fully trained and have some experiance if they are in the 60's, and it's not like these pilots need to refine their air-to-air tactics and skills. 60's should be ample for holding pretty tight formations, which exposes any aircraft attacking to massed defensive fire. More than enough to deal with most Japanese fighters with their light armament and construction no matter how "experianced" they are. This is NOT a dogfight! It's a flying porcupine, with the Japanese trying to get close enough to bite without getting a facefull of quils.

The system wasn't that good to start with, and with the additional hamstringing of Allied capabilities that the Japanese Fanboys have lobbied into the game, it's gotten worse.
The "kill ratio" you are reporting is way beyond ahistorical. It's idiotic.


Yeah thatīs correct. I think itīs not that problem in PBEM because every player will avoid such attacks or will get slaughtered like AI in my game. But itīs a killer for AI because Gili Gili is the graveyard of the heavy bombers. I donīt fear about later because if itīs going on like this there wonīt be enough bombers to fill out the squadron. But what should I do? Should I abandon every AF that is attacked with B17? Not because my airforce gets clobbered, no, just not to kill to many heavy bombers. I donīt need flak Iīve got my RUFES!




castor troy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 8:01:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag

quote:

So itīs just good for them that their morale is low.


Actually not, if it was high, you'd have a reverse situation ... more fighters would be shot down and *they* would be the ones breaking off. Morale is a critical part of air combat.


No Mr. Frag. I donīt know if I do have an other version of WITP but with MY version thatīs just not correct. As I said, at the beginning I shot even more B17 down and of course I lost more fighters but in the same ratio as it is now. Iīm killing them in a 1 to 10 or better ratio. From the beginning. The difference was that 5 - 10 bombers were able to drop bombs, ok, but the took even heavier losses each attack. Now, if they are lucky, they break off their attack after 2 are shot down. But whatīs the discussion here? As I already said, no matter what morale or leader - HOW CAN RUFE KILL B17 WITH THAT KILL RATIO?? And of course my Tonies are even better.




doktorblood -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 8:51:44 PM)

Maybe you guys should employ the that famous hindsight and reach the same conclusion that air commanders took years to reach, in every theater ... unescorted daylight raids over fighter defended targets are a bad idea. Especially at the low altitudes these raids are being assigned.





Mr.Frag -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 9:02:44 PM)

Castor, b-17's flying at low altitude take a morale hit which seriously affects their performance ... run your tests at 15,000 feet and see the difference (before you have cratered the morale to 20, sending them out like that is death). I just ran the entire Coral Sea scenario with 17's from PM smacking Rabaul non-stop against 2 groups of Rufes ... 3 17's lost to ops and none shot down over the course of 30 attacks. You go in low, you pay the price tag.




ltfightr -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 9:03:19 PM)

I look at the losses as total losses during the raid. Planes that may have not been shot down but that on return from the raid were write-offs and were canabilized for parts, Planes that ditched because they ran out of fuel. Ect. ect. Ect. I view the Ops loss line as planes lost during " regular missions" Search, Cap, trainning, transport.




castor troy -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 9:30:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag

Castor, b-17's flying at low altitude take a morale hit which seriously affects their performance ... run your tests at 15,000 feet and see the difference (before you have cratered the morale to 20, sending them out like that is death). I just ran the entire Coral Sea scenario with 17's from PM smacking Rabaul non-stop against 2 groups of Rufes ... 3 17's lost to ops and none shot down over the course of 30 attacks. You go in low, you pay the price tag.


Now whatīs low? Usually they come in between 12 and 17000 feet. And as you can see in my top pilot list MY Rufes are shooting AIs B17 down like they would have 30 mm cannons. You just have to believe me that they only have engaged these B17. And Rufe pilots with 10 kills of B17? Now what?




Feinder -> RE: Heavy Bomber Losses (5/6/2005 10:09:02 PM)

Be careful of trying to fix one thing and breaking another. True enough, it was -very- difficult for Japanese planes to shoot down Allied heavies. They had fewer 20mm cannons. The 20s they did have, were far inferior to German ones. But even then, their planes often didn't have sufficient ammo to even bring them down anyways (Germans had a tough enough time with this also).

I do think the ammo loadouts on the aircraft (for all scenarios, fighter vs. fighter, fighter vs. bomber), is too liberal. Seeing single pilots racking up 7 kills in single mission (in the frequency that we see), is a bit over the top. Doesn't matter if it's Allied or Japan, a pilot with high exp can, and will, know down scads of planes in a single sortie; far more frequently that was historical.

However, that being said, the air-to-air model is one of the most highly tuned aspects of WitP. Air-to-air and air-to-naval are THE best routines in WitP. Are they perfect? Nope. But over-all, most of us will agree that, Matrix has it "almost right".

Consider if you -do- lower the loss rate of heavies. Japanese players already groan at the replacement rates of Allied heavies (rightfully so). If you make them that much harder to kill, you're going to see that many more heavies in theater.

Or if you tweak the routine to make bombers harder to kill. You're then up against screwing up the kill ratios of Betty/Nells/B-25s. Or if you made a DB change (modders, have fun), to increase the durabilty of heavies (which would only affect the loss rate of the heavies), a little bit can go a long way. It would take a LOT of very methodical testing, to find the "correct" durability of a heavy considering all the variables of the air-to-air routine (I think the current durability is based on the unloaded weight of the aircraft). Good luck with that by the way.

And while I understand the argument that exp can make a major difference in fighter vs. fighter, a vast differential in exp in a fighter vs. heavy is lessened somewhat, simply because the heavy is (historically) so difficult to bring down anyways. But if you lessen the effect of exp in fighter vs. bomber, it's going to bork the fairly correct representation in fighter vs. fighter (or what if it's fighter vs. bombing fighter?).

My point is, there are so many things that can be affected here. True the model is not exact. I wish it could be better. But overall, the model works. If you start screwing with the routines to fix the heavies, you stand a real chance of breaking something else. And even if you -did- fix the heavies, without breaking anything, you then bury the Japanese under even more heavies than before, because they're much more survivable now. Don't send bombers unescorted if you think there will be enemy fighters there. Send escorts, or sweep to break them up before you get there. If you want your bomber crews to be heros and bomb alone, you certainly can. But just know that if you do, you have to pay the price.

But adjusting the routines in favor of the heavies, may end up being "cutting off your nose to spite your face". In this case, I think well-enough should be left alone. As there are other things that far more in need of "adjusting".

-F-




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