Nearing September... (Full Version)

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ADavidB -> Nearing September... (11/30/2005 11:48:54 PM)

August 20 -

It looks like the KB is on the move again. One of my S-boats on picket duty halfway between Baker Island and Kwajalein was spotted and bombed by Kates and Vals. So I've got that sub limping off to Palmyra and will send another in its place. Right now I'm only using S-boats on picket duty because all of my more modern subs that are due for October upgrades are being sent to naval shipyards ahead of time. I'm hoping that the subs get radar this coming upgrade.

With the KB on the prowl again I've started to pull back my transport TFs in the South Pacific atolls. If Tophat chooses he can send the KB in on a "dash" and reach the atolls in a couple of days, and I don't want to leave easy targets around. I've also ordered another recon and air bombardment of Baker Island in the hopes of getting Tophat to hang around there for a bit. Now that I've pulled my combat ships out of the region I would prefer not to have to face Tophat with the limited LBA that I have in the South Pacific.

Elsewhere, my B-17 squadron in Darwin took off and hit the airfield and troops at Kai Island hard again. Once again, Tophat didn't try to have any CAP over the base. That's fine; I'll take what I can get. I am looking forward to finally getting P-38s in October because the Darwin to Kai run will be the first training ground for the new planes. BTW Tophat did send recon planes over Derby again. It must look sort of "tempting" to him; all that is there is a base force, a patrol squadron and a fighter squadron.

My Chinese bombers didn't fly again, but neither did Tophat's bombers in China. One Japanese fighter sweep flew over Homan, but there was "nobody home", so they just got to pick up some fatigue. I'm trying to "shake things up" a bit by moving some units around. Therefore I moved the Mohawks that have been building up experience in Lautem down to Sian. Mohawks have a longer range than Hurricanes, just in case the SB-2cs haven't been attacking Homan because of Japanese LR CAP being present and there being no escorts around that can reach. I had thought that Hurricanes could reach Homan from Sian, but maybe they can't.

I then moved the least experienced Hurricane squadron out of Sian and into Lautem, and set it to ground attack so that it can start to improve its experience. Finally, I moved one more Hurricane squadron out of Sian and back to Chungking in order to keep the number of planes at Sian less than the number of air support points at the base. It's all "voodoo science" and likely won't make a difference if the weather continues to be rainy all the time, but at least I am reducing the possible variables. The only thing I can't do is move an Air HQ to Sian because I don't have any in China.

I'm also still shuffling Chinese ground units around. I've been pulling the badly weakened Chinese combat units out of the front line Chinese bases that aren't being threatened and sending them back to the bases that have plenty of support. I've also pulled all of the Chinese units out of the countryside except for those few near Wuchow that are holding on to crossroads. In those cases I've exchanged worn-out units for rebuilt units. Essentially, I'm betting that Tophat doesn't start a fourth front in China beyond the three that he currently has going; Hengchow, Homan and Kungchang. SIGINT does keep on telling me that a number of Japanese units are preparing to attack Wuchow, but they have stayed a hex away and haven't moved in. Anyway, those six units won't make much of a dent in my fortifications at Wuchow, nor on the good, strong units that I have there.

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Luck of the Rain... (12/1/2005 4:15:19 AM)

August 21 -

Tophat certainly got the "luck of the rain" this turn. Whereas the rain let up a bit and allowed some air strikes to go out, only minor attacks flew for me while major mass attacks flew for the Japanese. But then, the turn didn't start out so well for me anyway. First off, AVD Hulbert, which I had sent off on an ASW mission to find that Japanese sub that was hanging around between Johnson and Palmyra Islands found the sub alright, or more correctly, I-17 found the Hulbert and put a torpedo into it, causing heavy damage. Later during the day MSW Cessnock found I-17, but again I-17 got an attack off, which fortunately missed this time. So now Cessnock is escorting Hulbert to the closest level 3 port while I send another ASW TF containing 3 DMS ships and a good commander to try to find I-17.

My air attack on Baker Island also didn't do that well. The main part of the B-17 squadron couldn't find the target and turned back. This left three B-17s and a Coronado to fly into a group of 18 Zeros on CAP. [X(] Fortunately, the B-17s were able to sneak in and out, shooting down one Zero and even dropping their bombs on the airfield while receiving only minor damage!

In China another minor air mission consisting of those IL-4cs hit some troops at Nanning, causing a bit of damage. But my main air forces at Sian and vicinity were totally rained out. However, the rain didn't stop the Japanese who sent a number of very big bombing raids against Homan. Seeing 75 Sallys flying without escort really made me grind my teeth, but there isn't much I can do if my planes won't fly. To "add insult to injury", the Japanese artillery bombardment at the end of the turn caused more casualties than usual due to the "softening up" of the troops by the air raids. All I can do is shake my head and move out the wiped-out ground units while I try to move new units in place. However, I will probably loose Homan before I can bring sufficient reinforcements to bear. [8|]

In other news, Tophat finally sent some troops to invade the Russell Islands in the Solomons. For whatever reason, he had left them alone for a couple of game-months. Maybe he was expecting it to be captured automatically like so many of the dot-bases.

And it looks as if the Japanese carriers are sitting to the north of Baker Island in order to provide cover for another transport TF that is offloading more troops. There is a Japanese surface combat TF there too, just to discourage me from trying to sneak in a surface attack. So I've called off my "cockroach special" and have returned my transport TFs in the region to their original courses.

Dave Baranyi



frank1970 -> RE: Luck of the Rain... (12/1/2005 9:53:05 AM)

As far as I know full units are hit harder by artillery than torn out ones, so maybe your units have built up and so loose more to artillery?



wobbly -> RE: Luck of the Rain... (12/1/2005 11:23:18 AM)

It may well be considered gamey by you but I don't particularly like the idea of training pilots in your new shiney P-38s. Better to use the wirraway for its intended purpose and change when they are capable air jockeys.



ADavidB -> RE: Luck of the Rain... (12/1/2005 1:22:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Frank

As far as I know full units are hit harder by artillery than torn out ones, so maybe your units have built up and so loose more to artillery?


That's true, but artillery also causes more casualties if the target units were hit by air attacks first. That's why combined attacks are so important and why the @#$%^ weather is making things so hard for me.

Thanks -

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> RE: Luck of the Rain... (12/1/2005 1:25:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: wobbly

It may well be considered gamey by you but I don't particularly like the idea of training pilots in your new shiney P-38s. Better to use the wirraway for its intended purpose and change when they are capable air jockeys.


There are no "safe targets" in the range of Wirraways, or any other fighter that I currently have. Tophat is playing it very, very smart and making it very hard for me to build pilot experience. Kai Island is the only undefended Japanese possession within range of any of my fighters.

Anyway, I intend to put pilots who are already as good as I've got into the P-38s and just train them better.

Thanks -

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Slugging in the mud... (12/2/2005 12:00:19 AM)

August 22 -

I'm "slugging through the mud" in China now that I can't get bomber attacks to fly. There has to be some subtle reason why the Japanese bombers get to fly so much more frequently despite the uniformly bad weather throughout the region. There must be some "magic number" thresholds that need to be reached - maybe experience, maybe leadership, maybe supply level - but I can't figure out what the proper combination is in this situation. I've seen this in all my WitP PBEM games - I reach a point at which air units that had been flying regularly just won't fly any more.

This is the case right now in China with the SB-2c units. They were flying regularly and gaining experience and morale. Now that they have good levels of both and are well rested, they won't fly at all. And my fighters are behaving the same way, even in bases where there is plenty of supply and the air support is clearly in the "black". What worries me is that I am starting to see database memory failures pop up at random - the HQ in NZ that won't let me assign a leader, the Chinese unit in northern Manchuria that has no enemy units between it and the Chinese bases but continues to suffer from the "59 to 0" syndrome are prime examples. Could the inability of my bombers to fly be due to something similar? Or is it simply a case of the combination of advantages that the Japanese have in terms of experience, leadership, supply and so on pushes them over the "magic limit" and allows them to attack?

In any event, Japanese bombers were able to attack Hengchow and Homan at will and Tophat even sent a big 49 Zero sweep over Sian that creamed the squadron of Mohawks that I had there. I had laboriously trained those Mohawks in ground attacks on the Japanese troops at Kungchang for over a game month to get them up from experience around 60 to experience 70. But they were totally overmatched by the "Gods of the Skies" and 11 Mohawks were shot down for a loss of 3 Zeros. And to "add insult to injury" my SB-2cs still didn't fly to attack the Japanese troops at Homan. So I'm pulling back my planes further.

I'm also trying to increase my training in the backwater bases, but because China, India, Australia, Hawaii and North America are constantly under thunderstorms (I kid you not - this is unfortunately no exaggeration!) I constantly have fighters damaged by weather-induced operational damage when I set the fighter units even to a 20% training level. Therefore, I still have tons of pilots with experience in the mid-to-high 50s and no way to train them regularly. So you can well understand why I don't like to confront Tophat in the air - bad planes, poor pilots and no improvement in sight for months. And I keep on getting the uneasy feeling that Corsairs won't be the "answer to my prayers" that so many people have told me.

Anyway, my dissatisfaction with the game model aside, there was other action outside of the one-sided air war in China. For example, Tophat captured Russell Islands this turn. This was his first base captured in quite a while. He is also using Topsys somewhere - probably to transport supplies - and is losing a few of them from time-to-time due to operational losses.

Japanese sub I-17 disappeared from view in the waters between Johnson and Palmyra Islands and none of my ASW activity in the region could find it again. One of my air attacks did get off the ground - my B-17 squadron in Darwin flew and hit the airfield at Kai unopposed again, adding more damage and causing more casualties. Interestingly enough, the bomber pilots aren't adding experience despite the ease of these missions. But why should I be surprised…

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> RE: Slugging in the mud... (12/2/2005 5:11:28 AM)

August 23 -

I was splitting a few fighter air groups up in the hopes that they would receive ops damage less quickly while training than as whole groups when I suddenly ran out of "divides" after I split four groups. So I emailed Tophat and it turns out that he was under the mistaken impression that the Game allowed 20 "divides" per side instead of a total of 18 for the two sides together. So he is now scrambling to bring air units back together. I was wondering how he was able to put air units at so many bases.

But splits or not, the Japanese air forces own the air over China right now. Tophat sent several huge bomber raids on Homan, causing all sorts of damage and casualties, followed by a couple of big fighter sweeps. I never understand why so many Japanese players complain about big Allied bombing raids - good Japanese players like Tophat and PzB have no difficulty at all in bringing together raids of hundreds of bombers and hundreds of fighters. Those raids are just as effective as any Allied bomber raids and have the advantage of being escorted by much better fighters than the Allies can put up in 1942.

But never fear, 14 Hurricanes and 9 SB-2cs finally launched from Lanchow for the first time in a couple of game-weeks and caused 15 casualties among the 150,000 plus Japanese troops that are besieging Kungchang…Obviously the Allied air forces are way over-equipped and way over-rated… ([sm=vomit-smiley-020.gif])

Okay, soapbox aside, Tophat followed up on those air raids with another deliberate attack on Homan:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Homan

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 237954 troops, 2408 guns, 184 vehicles

Defending force 85975 troops, 124 guns, 0 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 6)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 5

Japanese ground losses:
6342 casualties reported
Guns lost 89
Vehicles lost 5

Allied ground losses:
4375 casualties reported
Guns lost 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm running out of supply at Homan and I don't have any more replacement troops nearby to reinforce it, so in combination with my inability to launch any air strikes against the besieging troops, I expect Homan to fall at the next serious attack. Oh well, those troops held up for quite some time.

In other regions, Tophat continued to recon Derby and followed up with another big sweep by 53 Zeros. That's okay, I don't have any fighters in the air over Northern Australia - there's no point since I don't have anything good enough nor in big enough numbers to stop those sorts of sweeps. Tophat also started to recon Darwin. I'm sending out more bombers next turn to hit Kai Island. We'll see if that gets Tophat to act in some manner.

In the Central Pacific, poor old S-30 was "run over" by 4 Japanese DDs, but the ASW attack missed the sub as it continues to try to limp to safety. I'm guessing that those DDs are part of the carrier TF that is guarding the TFs that are supplying Baker Island. Speaking of "limping home", it doesn't look like the Hulbert will make it to safety - system damage is now at 99 and floatation at 95 and the ship is a hex from port.

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Bettys in the Afternoon... (12/2/2005 7:29:09 AM)

August 24 -

Tophat rebuilt two more air groups, leaving only two more to go for him. But because he has been using the split groups for upgrading it will be a couple of weeks before he can get the rest of the planes to the point that he can rebuild them. Oh well, at least I've got a bit of flexibility now.

Tophat's patrol planes finally spotted the small transport TF that has been sitting in Darwin Harbor for the past few days and which had sailed ever so slowly across the northern edge of Australia for a game-week or so. Of course, once the ships were spotted in the AM air phase a bunch of Bettys flew out from Amboina in the PM air phase and were able to put a torpedo each into two of the AKs. I've got to wonder about the reality of a reaction in an afternoon over such a long distance, but who am I to question such a robust Game design… [8|] In any event, I've now put a couple of Hurricane squadrons in place in the hopes that the Bettys come back next turn, even though they were accompanied by Zeros this turn.

Tophat got off his now regular massive air attacks on Homan, further pounding the remaining Chinese forces. The overall base supply is now gone and a number of units are totally out of supply, so as I mentioned last time, the next deliberate attack ought to take the base. BTW - my planes in Lanchow didn't fly again this turn.

My squadron of IL-4cs did fly this turn and surprised me by flying right past a squadron of Tonys at Changsha. No one was shot down on either side, but the IL-4cs did little damage and one bomber was lost to operational damage.

My squadron of B-17s at Darwin also flew again to hit Kai Island. The Fortresses flew in the morning, and then the squadron of Hudsons flew in the afternoon. For whatever reason, the squadron of Beauforts didn't fly. The B-17s caused some damage but the Hudsons caused no damage at all.

And as expected, the Hulbert sank in Palmyra harbor.

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> RE: Bettys in the Afternoon... (12/3/2005 12:49:05 AM)

August 25 -

The Bettys didn't come back to Darwin this turn despite a recon flight and a patrol plane that spotted the transport ships still unloading in port. I guess that the Hurricanes were noticed. However, the Bettys had escorts last time so I don’t know why they wouldn't fly if the escorts were still with them. The weather forecast was for rain all over, but that doesn't usually affect a "hungry" Betty… [8|]

One of the damaged AKs was emptied out and so I was able to pull it out of the TF and disband it into port. The damage isn't too bad so it ought to survive if the port at Darwin isn't bombed or bombarded. The other damaged AK is in its own TF and is still unloading. If it empties out successfully I'll also disband it into port. The other two undamaged AKs are set to head south if they get to unload undisturbed.

In China there were medium sized Japanese air raids on Hengchow and Homan again. The big 100+ bomber run didn't fly this time. I've moved a couple of Hurricane squadrons into Hengchow in hopes of surprising Tophat - he hasn't bothered to sweep Hengchow for quite a while because I haven't been keeping CAP there. We'll see if I get away with this.

Elsewhere, a couple of Wellington squadrons flew from India to hit Pagan for practice. I'm now flying recon flights all over Burma just to keep Tophat edgy. My night fighters are also occasionally getting a few hits so I let them go just for nuisance value.

A couple of more Japanese subs showed up in the South Pacific so I'm sending out a couple more ASW ships to see if I get luckier this time. I'm assuming that the Japanese carrier force has retired to Kwajalein because my picket line subs didn't report any Kates or Vals this turn. If not, then I may get to see the KB in all its "glory" charge off after an MSW or something like that… [;)]

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> A Little trap... (12/3/2005 5:34:25 AM)

August 26 -

My little trap at Hengchow worked. Tophat sent in the usual squadron of Helens escorted by a squadron of Oscars and my Hurricanes pounced on them, shooting down three of each for the loss of one Hurricane in air-to-air combat and one to operational damage. Then my IL-4cs flew in to hit Tophat's besieging troops and finally my troops at Hengchow got off a strong artillery barrage. I've now pulled back the Hurricanes, stood down the IL-4cs, set the troops back to "defend" and have jumped into the deepest foxhole around as I await Tophat's response. [sm=00000622.gif]

But that little surprise aside, things went as usual for Tophat in Homan as he sent around 100 fighters and over 100 bombers to hammer the airfield. But for whatever reason, my troops in Homan have started to receive supplies again, so they may well stand up to one more attack, particularly if Tophat gets distracted by Hengchow and eases off on his attacks on Homan for a bit.

One other thing worked in my favor in China; my pilots in Lanchow found their way to attack the Japanese troops at Kungchang again. It would be nice if those pilots would keep that up for a while. It certainly helped at artillery bombardment time this turn when the Japanese accomplished nothing but my Chinese troops were able to hit them hard.

Elsewhere, only about half of my B-17 squadron flew and hit Kai Island this turn. I don't know why the rest of them stayed away. Those who did fly hit the airbase well. So all-in-all this was one of the best air-combat days for me in a long while. At the end of the day Tophat lost 12 planes to 3 of mine.

But Tophat isn't just having problems with the Allied air forces. He is also starting to fight the Game engine. As he was recombining some of his split air groups a group of Sonias vanished. They must be around somewhere because I can't split any more groups this turn than last, but Tophat can't find them. He must be very glad that it wasn't a group of his crack Zero pilots! [X(]

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Railroaded... (12/3/2005 2:01:41 PM)

August 27 -

Tophat must not play the Allied side too often because it turns out that there was a simple answer to his missing air units - he had accidentally sent them by railroad to another base in China! Apparently, he has never used railroad transport of air units before. As I wrote to him, I wouldn't know what to do in Australia without that feature. [&o] So Tophat is a lot less worried now about the general state of the Game. Let's hope that his confidence is well-founded; we've both put much too much time into this match to lose it to Design problems.

In the War itself, the daily Japanese air bombardment of Hengchow included more escorts today, but that's fine because my Hurricanes were safely away and resting on their laurels. [:D] At Homan a big Daitai of Tojos flew through on a sweep before a group of Anns attacked. The multi-group attacks of Sallys and Helens didn't fly against Homan this turn.

I did get off my first equivalent big bomber attack this turn; 99 Wellingtons flew against Pagan and whacked the airfield really hard. Tophat didn't actually have any CAP over Pagan, nor did he have any troops in there, but it was still nice to see some of my planes actually cause some serious damage. If Tophat doesn't defend Pagan I'll probably send those Wellingtons back for an attack on the facilities there; Pagan supplies something to the Japanese, I just can't remember what at the moment.

Only half of my B-17s in Canton Island flew against Baker Island today and the result wasn't good; a couple of bombers were lost and no results were achieved. I may pull those guys out and replace them with some other bomber unit for a while.

The most surprising result of the day for me was that my Hudsons in Darwin flew against a couple of transport TFs in Lautem Harbor and hit a DD and an AP. Tophat had the CAP away or sitting down. And since my CAP was still up in Darwin Tophat's Bettys didn't fly again my transports.

The next most surprising result of the day was that Homan held again against another deliberate attack. But this will likely be the last one. I don't expect that I will have the time to bring in the replacements that I need. Oh well, it's now time to defend Sian.

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Big news (sort of)... (12/3/2005 10:44:34 PM)

August 28 -

The big news today is that another of my Pearl Harbor survivors, the West Virginia, finally repaired down to the "magic level" of three and was then upgraded to receive radar and slightly better AA. That leaves only two more battleships to be repaired, and both are in their teens as far as system damage goes. So with any luck by the first anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor all of my surviving battleships will be repaired and upgraded.

The big news for Tophat this turn was that all of his bombers and fighters were able to attack Homan this turn, despite the presence of heavy clouds and rain over the base. They caused massive damage to the airbase and the supply, and then the following artillery bombardment caused huge casualties. Homan is obviously a lost cause, so I set all the troops to retreat to Sian. I'm hoping that Tophat has set another bombardment attack this coming turn instead of a deliberate attack. If he has, most of my troops ought to escape. If not, oh well, we'll worry about that when we get to it.

In the meanwhile my SB-2cs at Lanchow attacked the Japanese troops at Kungchang again. This aided the following artillery attack by the Chinese troops who cause more casualties on the Japanese than ever before. It's just too back that I have to fall back from Homan; once Sian becomes the next major defensive point it will be harder to bring new forces to Kungchang.

This coming turn I am sending out my Wellingtons again in an attempt to attack the resources at Pagan. We'll see how well that works and if Tophat attempts to put some CAP over Pagan. Of course, considering that all bases in India, Burma, Indochina, China, etc. are covered with thunderstorms, there's no telling what will happen.

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> So far, so good... (12/4/2005 12:01:59 AM)

August 29 -

So far, so good - Tophat did another bombardment attack at Homan, along with the usual heavy air raids. (Once he does take Homan it will take him quite some time to repair all the damage that he has caused.) Two of my units "got out of town" this turn and if Tophat does another artillery bombardment next turn the rest of the units will get out next turn too.

Elsewhere in China, my IL-4cs ran into a squadron of Tonys that were defending the Japanese troops to the south of Wuchow. The IL-4cs came out much the worse for the wear, losing two planes and having two more damaged. But overall in the turn Tophat still lost 5 planes to operational damage compared to my two combat losses, so I'm satisfied.

BTW - if you are wondering what the "Weather Map" is showing in the game, here is what is written in the 9 sections this turn:

Precipitation, Precipitation, Heavy Precipitation
Precipitation, Precipitation, Precipitation
Heavy Precipitation, Overcast, Heavy Precipitation

This is pretty typical of what I see every turn; just move the order around, and once every 15 or 20 turns, substitute a single "Clear" in the mix.

In other news, the B-17s in Darwin hit Kai hard again. The Hudsons in Darwin are on Naval Attack with a Port Attack on Kai as the alternate, so they hit Kai too, but didn't cause any damage. Tophat now has TFs in both Lautem and Dili, but he also has CAP at both places so the Hudsons aren't flying there.

And finally, AVD Gregory found I-1 sitting halfway between Baker and Canton Islands, but missed the sub during the ASW attack.

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Advance to the rear... (12/4/2005 9:34:44 PM)

August 30 -

The weather cleared for Tophat as all of his bomber attacks flew over Homan this turn; devastating the airbase, airfields, infrastructure and air supply. Then came the big artillery attack as all 250,000 of his besieging troops joined in a combined bombardment. But, no one was home… [:D] All of my troops got out. Tophat was surprised; he expected me to stay around longer. But there was no reason to do so; all the supply was gone and the air base and air fields were at 85% damage each. So Tophat is welcome to take the base unopposed this turn. And now my supply lines in China shorten a bit and Tophat's supply lines lengthen a bit more. As I wrote to Tophat, "Those who fight and run away, live to fight another day". [;)]

So Sian will likely be the next major battle. However, Tophat has been accumulating troops one hex away from Wuchow. Will Tophat start yet another assault in addition to the ones that he already has going in China? He has been pulling troops out of Indo-China in order to build up his forces outside of Wuchow. It's almost too bad that I don't have any paratroops in India at this stage of the game… [;)]

In other news, SIGINT came up with the following tidbit of information:

38th Division is planning for an attack on Noumea

Tophat has been unnaturally quiet in that region. Is he planning a concerted offensive to the south of the Solomons, or just a specific raid? I actually have a fair amount of forces in the region, but not at Noumea. Instead I have "pseudo-forces" at Noumea, just to keep Tophat thinking, but I have no intention of getting into a "do or die" situation there as so many other folks have done in other PBEM games. Tophat is still edgy because he hasn't reduced my forces at all in this game. And the longer he waits, the stronger I become. So I have no great reason to contest Noumea in a serious manner at this time. If however, some opportunities for raiding present themselves I am more than prepared to cause some serious problems for Tophat.

In other news, 100 Wellingtons hit Pagan and destroyed about a third of the resource capability there. I'm not sure whether or not this will cause any slight incremental reduction in Tophat's war effort, but it was another good opportunity for my bomber pilots to gain experience at no risk. It also continues to send a message to Tophat that one of these days something more important of his will be smashed. [sm=00000622.gif]

Dave Baranyi



Tom Hunter -> RE: Advance to the rear... (12/4/2005 9:49:45 PM)

But "Do or Die is so exciting."



ADavidB -> RE: Advance to the rear... (12/4/2005 10:10:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

But "Do or Die is so exciting."


True, but winning is even more "exciting" for me. [;)]

Anyway, I want to be able to get Tophat to where he is in a "do or die" situation...thus my philosophy continues to be one of "patience is a virtue"...

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Another little trap... (12/5/2005 3:20:14 AM)

August 31 -

Some little "dot" base with the unlikely name of "Thousand Ship Bay" was occupied by the Japanese this turn. My attitude towards all those "occupied" but, in fact, empty bases is that at some point I will be happily getting "free" experience for some of my weaker LCUs as I grab those "dots" back. But for now, I just want to set the occasional trap and see what I catch. [;)]

This past turn gave me a very nice "catch" in China. As I mentioned last time, my pullout from Homan means that Sian becomes a key location for me. One might expect that I would throw all sorts of forces into Sian to try to make it as strong a fortress as I can. Certainly Tophat thought so, because he sent a bunch of attacks at Sian including dive bombers and fighter sweeps. Now, things are a little different at Sian than they were at Homan, not the least of which is that I have a couple of full-strength Chinese base forces in there that have working and supplied AA. I also didn't bother putting any CAP over Sian specifically because I expected Tophat to send the "works" after the place. So Tophat's efforts at Sian went for naught. Tophat also sent 100 fighters on a sweep of Chungking, but my fighters that were there were set to training, so that attack also did nothing but accumulate operational damage for Tophat.

What I did instead was put two of my best Hurricane squadrons into Hengchow. I always remember how a pilot friend who is also a history buff once commented to me that; "Hurricanes really won the Battle of Britain." So I set both squadrons up high and at 80% CAP. Sure enough, Tophat sent the usual squadron of Helens in, along with some rookie fighters:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Hengchow, at 45, 37

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 12
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 19
Ki-49 Helen x 19

Allied aircraft
Hurricane II x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 3 destroyed
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 4 destroyed
Ki-49 Helen: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane II: 2 damaged

Runway hits 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At the end of the day, between that ambush, the AA at Sian, and the general operational losses caused by bad weather everywhere, the air losses were 16 for the Japanese and only 1 for the Allies. Now, if I can only figure out ways to do that more often. [sm=00000622.gif]

Elsewhere, AVD Gregory attacked S-18 again, but missed once again. Oh well, practice makes perfect…

I noticed some "good news" peaking up at the bottom of my chronological ship arrival listing - I get two more fast battleships in two weeks. I don't know if they will need the October upgrades or not, but it will certainly be nice to have them around. [:)]

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> September 1, 1942 ... (12/5/2005 6:02:43 AM)

September 1 -

September started out fairly quietly, with the exception of hundreds of Japanese bombers and fighters attacking Sian. Flak and operational damage cost Tophat seven planes, but his forces were still able to damage the airfield at Sian badly. In any event, in the spirit of "what's good for the goose is good for the gander", I'm sending out some big air attacks of my own next turn, weather permitting, and one may even turn out to be a surprise to Tophat.

Otherwise, not much happened. Tophat didn't try an air attack on Hengchow and his artillery bombardment at Hengchow did little while his artillery bombardment at Kungchang did nothing. My troops at Kungchang got in a fairly good artillery attack of their own.

Tophat is massing a lot of ships at Lautem, I'm not sure if he is just reinforcing the base or preparing for an assault on northern Australia. I'm going to try to interfere with his plans a little bit.

In any event, the September 1 score sheet is below. I'm still quite satisfied with the point standings. Tophat is now almost 500 plane losses ahead of me, and as I mentioned to him last turn, P-38s start to show up in a month, and Corsairs show up only a few months afterwards…

Dave Baranyi




[image]local://upfiles/4267/A0FB158F8BD34398A5C71096094E2B1F.jpg[/image]



ADavidB -> The worm turns... (12/6/2005 12:22:52 AM)

September 2 -

Today the "worm turned" in a big way. Things started out as usual with Tophat sending lots of bombers over Sian again, causing lots of damage. Then I got off a long-planned attack:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Mandalay, at 33, 30

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 28

Allied aircraft
Wellington III x 98
P-40B Tomahawk x 70
F-5A Lightning x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 29 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Wellington III: 3 damaged
P-40B Tomahawk: 3 destroyed, 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
14 casualties reported

Airbase hits 14
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 88
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 23rd FG wiped the Oscars from the air and the Wellingtons hammered those still on the ground. I set the entire 23rd FG on "escort" with CAP set to zero. They all flew and fought well. Recon suggests that Tophat has pulled the rest of his planes out of Mandalay, so I'm doing something now that I don't usually do - I'm sending another attack the very next day. I'd like to be certain to close the base before Tophat tries to move in some better air units.

And while Tophat is considering this, the AVG is still sitting back, waiting for the right opportunity too. BTW - I have around 150 P-40Bs in reserve, so if by chance Tophat wants to come back and fight I can slug it out with him for a while.

My other air move wasn't quite as successful, but it still sent another message to Tophat. I have been watching Tophat's movements at Timor with interest and decided to do something before he gets too "comfortable" there. So I sent that B-17 squadron from Darwin to hit Lautem and also moved back that B-17 group to Wyndham and set them to hit the airfields at Lautem too. In addition I had my Hudsons at Darwin set to naval attack, just in case they could take advantage of the likely confusion.

The Darwin B-17 squadron went in first and shot down a couple of Zeros while hitting the airfield and causing damage there. Then the B-17 group came in from Wyndham. They aren't as experienced and although they caused a lot of damage on the ground they did take a fair amount of damage themselves from the Zeros that were still on CAP. This was followed by two attacks by the Darwin Hudsons. The first attack ran into some remaining Zero CAP and suffered losses without doing any damage. But the second attack come in unopposed and put three bombs into an AP, likely sinking it.

So, all-in-all, it was a good day in the air for the Allies. The end total was 46 Japanese planes destroyed against the loss of 11 Allied planes. I can "live with" that sort of result. [:D]

Everywhere else was very quiet. I am hoping that the recent Allied air victories start to put some hesitation in Tophat's plans as he considers how little of the Allied forces I have bothered to commit to date. [sm=00000622.gif]

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Ticked off... (12/6/2005 4:09:45 AM)

September 3 -

Soap box on…

Tophat commented to me that there was "an interesting turn of events" in this turn. Yeah, sure - interesting for him…as usual, my air units refused to fly despite Japanese planes flying by the hundreds in the same regions. I am unable to maintain a consistent air campaign anywhere, while Tophat readily and regularly bombs my bases into the ground. And my air bases in India are Big, have Lots of supplies, have Air HQs with good Air Leaders and aren't showing clouds over them. I don't care what anyone says - this is c*r*a*p gaming.

Okay, soapbox off.

The only good thing that went on this turn was that the AA at Sian took a heavy toll of the Lilys that flew in first. But as more waves of Japanese bombers arrived the flak stopped being effective and the damage built up.

Tophat also sent some Sallys after Kunming for the first time. They caught and destroyed one IL-4C on the ground. That's not surprising, because the IL-4Cs didn't fly for no reason that was evident to me. So I've moved a bunch of fighters into Kunming and I'm hoping that Tophat comes back. Tophat has also been sending bombers against troops at Wuchow, so I put two good Hurricane squadrons in Wuchow in the hopes of catching the bombers by surprise.

Finally, Tophat sent another Zero Daitai on a sweep of Derby, but he guessed wrong and my planes were on training again. I'm ticked off at how things are going so I'm sending my B-17s after Lautem again. It's probably too soon, but I feel the need to draw some aerial blood.

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Missed opportunities... (12/7/2005 6:30:33 AM)

September 4 -

As I should have expected, my well-rested, well-training air attack units didn't fly in India this turn, but my somewhat fatigued, less well-trained bomber groups in Northern Australia did fly against some pretty good CAP over Lautem. Therefore, I wasn't able to take advantage of my attack on Mandalay two game-days ago and Tophat got all of his planes out safely, while my attacks on Lautem accomplished little. In ways, I actually lucked out in that I only lost one plane in the Lautem attacks. I also got lucky in that my Australian Hudsons flew after the B-17s and thus were able to fight their way through the CAP to hit both an MSW and a PG.

Tophat had no such troubles over Sian where his planes only had to deal with flak. However, something strange thing seems to be going on at Sian. It looks as if Tophat has pulled some of his besieging troops back. I wonder if he is going to try an end-around?

To add to my day of missed opportunities - Tophat didn't fly against the Chinese bases where I had moved my fighters, and as well, my IL-4cs didn't go after their target either. Only my planes in Lanchow flew, and in several small groups too. As my Father would say, I must not be "holding my mouth right"…

Oh well, the rest of my plans are progressing steadily. And in just over a week I'll have two more American fast battleships on hand. Now to find some useful targets to go after.

Dave Baranyi



Tom Hunter -> RE: Missed opportunities... (12/7/2005 5:11:08 PM)

The same sort of thing is happening to me in my game with Mogami.

It does make launching an operation very difficult because the game is based on the idea of getting many different pieces of an operation together, and then when you do this the game engine decides that one (or more) of them will not show up for the party.



ADavidB -> RE: Missed opportunities... (12/8/2005 12:40:06 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

The same sort of thing is happening to me in my game with Mogami.

It does make launching an operation very difficult because the game is based on the idea of getting many different pieces of an operation together, and then when you do this the game engine decides that one (or more) of them will not show up for the party.


When I look at how the game goes, and how it plays from both sides (and I do play both sides), I've got to believe that unit "experience" is a very big factor in deciding if a unit will participate or not. When everything else is pretty much "even" - base size, supply, fatigue, leadership, HQs, weather - the side with more experience seems to get more opportunities to attack than the side with less experience. Of course, this becomes a "self-fulfilling prophecy" in which the side with more experience gets more opportunities to gain even more experience even faster than the other side.

Should it be this way? My gut feeling says "no", but it's hard to figure out a way to quantify this sufficiently to bring it up as a concern to the Designers. And, of course, this may well be the Designer's intent from the first place...

Thanks -

Dave Baranyi



Widell -> RE: Missed opportunities... (12/8/2005 1:19:35 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ADavidB
quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter
It does make launching an operation very difficult because the game is based on the idea of getting many different pieces of an operation together, and then when you do this the game engine decides that one (or more) of them will not show up for the party.


When I look at how the game goes, and how it plays from both sides (and I do play both sides), I've got to believe that unit "experience" is a very big factor in deciding if a unit will participate or not. When everything else is pretty much "even" - base size, supply, fatigue, leadership, HQs, weather - the side with more experience seems to get more opportunities to attack than the side with less experience. Of course, this becomes a "self-fulfilling prophecy" in which the side with more experience gets more opportunities to gain even more experience even faster than the other side.

Should it be this way? My gut feeling says "no", but it's hard to figure out a way to quantify this sufficiently to bring it up as a concern to the Designers. And, of course, this may well be the Designer's intent from the first place...


At the risk of kidnapping this excellent AAR, does anyone have any ideas on how this developed historically in the real war? I would assume the designers looked for parameters to predict the likelyhood of a unit flying or not, or alternatively, it is just modelled using the stuff that was already mentioned in a semi-random and linear fashion?

As for what would be interesting to explore for future releases (or maybe it´s for a new product?) would be to see the likelyhood of missions actually happening being subject to many factors. What I´m saying is that it should be possible to define a number of missions and bundle them into an "operation" or something like that. Then if some part of this operation fails to initiate due to bad weather, bad leadership, poor morale or whatever governs that, there is a likelyhood that the whole operation, or parts of it is cancelled as well. This may require a command and control model that is not there at the moment to simulate senior officers and staff taking decision like that. For example, a final rush by a landing TF against an enemy base might be redirected or ordered (by the higherst ranking officer in the to-be command and control structure of course) to stand off if the CAP over the landing zone is grounded due to bad weather. Complex? Of course, but we WitP addicts are not the guys to be afraid of complexity, now are we?

Well, I won´t disturb the AAR more, so maybe this discussion should continue elsewhere if anyone finds it interesting?

/Widell



ADavidB -> RE: Missed opportunities... (12/8/2005 1:56:23 AM)

quote:

At the risk of kidnapping this excellent AAR, does anyone have any ideas on how this developed historically in the real war? I would assume the designers looked for parameters to predict the likelyhood of a unit flying or not, or alternatively, it is just modelled using the stuff that was already mentioned in a semi-random and linear fashion?


In the War, only two things stopped missions - weather and changes in orders. Everything I've seen in this game, in its predecessor - Uncommon Valor, and in it's "ancestor"- Pacific War, indicates to me that there are linear factors applied to the "go, no go" decisions. The Game engine "rewards" the side that has better overall "qualities", and one of the biggest "qualities" that is rewarded is experience.

The only significant difference in conditions where my bombing missions are not flying and Tophat's are flying is experience. My pilots have experience in the low 70s; Tophat's pilots have experience in the 80s and low 90s. Tophat's experienced pilots fly more often than mine. Where Tophat is using less experienced pilots they are flying at a similar rate as my pilots.

I suspect that if the weather in the game were more realistic - i.e., something other than thunderstorms or torrential rain 90% of the time - we would both get more missions off. As it is, I suspect that the higher experience levels of Tophat's crack pilots allow them to surmount the weather barrier more often.

But since the Designers don't share the design constraints with the Customers, we can't really be certain.

Thanks for the interest -

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Finally flying... (12/9/2005 3:15:54 AM)

September 5 -

Air action actually picked up a bit this turn. First off, my IL-4cs went for a "revenge raid" against Hanoi and ran into a lot of trouble in the form of a fair amount of CAP from Tojos and Tonys. I was expecting some escorts to fly with them, but they went in alone.
The Chinese bombers got hit pretty hard, but they still destroyed a few enemy planes in the air and on the ground.

Next, the usual heavy Japanese air raids hit Sian. Tophat is doing a good job of keeping the airfield closed. The Japanese are also slowly building up strength on the ground at Sian, but so are the Chinese. And Sian is so much easier to keep supplied than Homan. If Sian got a weather break from the aerial bombing for a couple of days the forces there would be in really good shape.

Then to my surprise my bombers and fighters from Dacca finally flew and hit Mandalay. And to my greater surprise there were still Japanese fighters on the ground:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Mandalay, at 33, 30

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
Wellington III x 115
P-40B Tomahawk x 71
F-5A Lightning x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 15 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Wellington III: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
34 casualties reported

Airbase hits 16
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 124
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The final totals for the day were much better with 29 Oscars destroyed on the ground. Overall for the day the Allies lost 12 planes and the Japanese lost 32. I'll take those results any day.

BTW - one of the ships that my Hudsons hit in Lautem Harbor a few game-days ago, an MSW, finally sank this turn.

Dave Baranyi



ADavidB -> Delay in the action... (12/10/2005 6:28:56 AM)

Tophat has been busy with something that he claims is "Real Life", but sounds like an alien abduction instead:

1 - His wife bought him a new PC for their wedding anniversary...

2 - After letting Tophat set up that computer for a couple of days, his wife is insisting that he go to bed with her...

[&:]

Definitely aliens...

Dave Baranyi



Milman -> RE: Delay in the action... (12/18/2005 12:02:19 AM)

Do you planing something in these days ? Did you analize situation so far ?



ADavidB -> RE: Delay in the action... (12/18/2005 12:21:59 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Milman

Do you planing something in these days ? Did you analize situation so far ?


Tophat has been hit with a "PC-free Week" by his wife. so he won't be able to get a turn off until tomorrow night at the earliest.

It will be interesting to see what he does once we start playing again. October will bring upgrades for my US ships and the beginning of the availability of P-38s. I have been only using a fraction of my forces up until now to keep him occupied.

I expect that he will try to expand into the South Pacific. I am hoping that he does because that means that his forces will be spread out even thinner than they are right now.

Thanks for your interest.

Dave Baranyi



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