RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest

RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (Full Version)

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larssto -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/15/2014 9:12:02 PM)
quote: warspite1 Out of interest can you let me know your source(s) for that comment? I would have thought its one enormous step for a country like Norway to go from neutrality to the outright joining of one side or other. Would Denmark's invasion have really been sufficient? I would be surprised, but would love to know of any hard evidence to support that view. Off topic - I know[8\|] Disclaimer: I am Norwegian. Remember that the CW had started mining Norwegian waters about 24h before the German invasion. If Germany had taken Denmark on 9 April and left Norway alone, I am sure Churchill would have felt vindicated enough to push for some gunboat diplomacy with Norway to prevent any further Axis expansion. In addition, the Norwegian government, while staunch 'Neutralists', were more CW-friendly than Germany-friendly. This is from Wikipedia about the Norwegian Foreign Minister at the time: quote: With the outbreak of the Second World War in September 1939, the Norwegian government declared the country neutral in the conflict. Both warring sides subsequently stated that they would respect Norway's neutrality, provided that she protect her neutrality against trespasses by the other side. Koht was clear from early on that Norway should remain neutral, but also that in the event of her being forced to enter the war it was critical that it was on the side of the British.[57] quote: In response to the British mining operation on 8 April 1940, the Norwegian government lodged formal protests with the British and French governments, while secretly remaining set on avoiding war with the Allies at all cost. Koht told the Norwegian parliament that he believed that the Allies were trying to bring Norway into the war. The Allied mining of the Norwegian coast coincidentally distracted the Norwegian government from realizing that large German forces had been on their way to invade Norway for several days prior.[62] Even if Norway hadn't joined outright, I think that the occupation of Denmark by Germany would have brought the war so close to home for the Norwegian government that they would have felt justified to pre-emptively mobilize and harden their defenses (not that they were great in any case). Remember that that the German invasion of Norway relied in no small part on complete surprise, a more alert Norway may have been able to resist longer giving the Allies more time to reinforce.

Extraneous -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/15/2014 9:19:51 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Klydon They need to get the game running by RAW first before entertaining anything about house rules, although technically something could be done with the Swedish resource. I think there are some built in penalties for the Axis in terms of what chits are in the pool by year. I am not sure, but I think the 1939 chits are bigger on average than the 1940 chits that get added. quote: ORIGINAL: PionsWif-Aif-Patif.xls 1939 ~ Markers available 29 Zero x1 1 x9 2 x7 3 x6 4 x6 5 x1 1940 ~ Markers available 53 Zero x4 1 x10 2 x7 3 x3 1941 ~ Markers available 68 1 x1 2 x3 3 x3 4 x4 5 x3 6 x1 1942 ~ Markers available 82 2 x1 3 x3 4 x4 5 x3 6 x3 1943 ~ Markers available 94 3 x1 4 x2 5 x4 6 x5

Courtenay -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/15/2014 9:58:55 PM)
MWiF does not precisely replicate these numbers. For example, in 1939, it doesn't matter how many other chits have been drawn; the odds of the next chit having any value are the same as the first chit. The average value in WiF is 2.41; the average value in MWiF is 2.33. In 1940, it of course does matter how many earlier chits have been drawn. There will be at least six chits drawn in 1939 (the four German and two Soviet neutrality chits), and there will probably be some US chits. In any event, there will be at most 47 chits available in 1940, of which at least 4 will be zeros. I am being conservative; the expected number of chits is lower, and the expected number of zeros is higher. Thus a firm minimum of the chance of drawing a zero is 8.5%. In MWiF, the chance of drawing a zero in 1940 is 2.7%. Thus you are less than 1/3 as likely to draw a zero in 1940 in MWiF than you are in WiF. If the neutrality pool chits go back into the pool (1940 Barbarossa), the chance of drawing a 0 goes down in WiF, but it still is at least 7.5%.

dhucul2011 -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/15/2014 10:14:07 PM)
I am not saying that Norway would have historically joined the war for sure but what I have read here and in other places is that the Norwegian government was somewhat pro-Allied and would have seen an invasion of Denmark as a real threat. They certainly would have moved toward the Allied camp. In addition, was the King of Norway not brother to the King of Denmark? Since there is no way to model levels of alignment to one side or the other really then we just would make Norway go Allied. This would give a real reason to play out some historical consequences. I guess another method would be for Norway to start shipping their resource to the CW AND stop the 1 Swedish resource in Winter from going to Germany on a Denmark only invasion. Its just that right now there is no reason for the Axis to invade Norway and that's probably not realistic. The other situation is the Netherlands. I am quite sure that Belgium would have quickly moved towards the Allies if Germany attacked only the Netherlands. Just one guys opinion on how we could better model some of these diplomatic chances in WIF. SC2 does a good job of this.

paulderynck -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/15/2014 10:25:59 PM)
[;)]Weren't George V, Czar Nicholas, and Kaiser Wilhelm all first cousins?[;)]

michaelbaldur -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/15/2014 11:47:25 PM)
I don´t agree that a minor would join the other side, if somebody else was attacked all minors tried desperately to stay out of the war ... if Denmark was attacked, Norway would have stayed neutral, like Sweden. no government want to take it´s country into a bloody world war.

dhucul2011 -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/16/2014 4:13:23 AM)
Yes, that may be true but there needs to be something to make Norway more of an active theatre. However, unless it is changed on the WIF side then I guess nothing will happen in MWIF.

warspite1 -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/16/2014 5:26:44 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: paulderynck [;)]Weren't George V, Czar Nicholas, and Kaiser Wilhelm all first cousins?[;)] warspite1 You beat me to it! And Queen Victoria was the Kaiser's grandma.

warspite1 -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/16/2014 5:33:38 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: dhucul I am not saying that Norway would have historically joined the war for sure but what I have read here and in other places is that the Norwegian government was somewhat pro-Allied and would have seen an invasion of Denmark as a real threat. They certainly would have moved toward the Allied camp. In addition, was the King of Norway not brother to the King of Denmark? Since there is no way to model levels of alignment to one side or the other really then we just would make Norway go Allied. This would give a real reason to play out some historical consequences. I guess another method would be for Norway to start shipping their resource to the CW AND stop the 1 Swedish resource in Winter from going to Germany on a Denmark only invasion. Its just that right now there is no reason for the Axis to invade Norway and that's probably not realistic. The other situation is the Netherlands. I am quite sure that Belgium would have quickly moved towards the Allies if Germany attacked only the Netherlands. Just one guys opinion on how we could better model some of these diplomatic chances in WIF. SC2 does a good job of this. warspite1 There is a difference between "moving towards the Allies" and joining the war. Belgium and Norway were already pro-Allied in the sense that they understood who the bad guys were. But remember, one of the frustrations of the Anglo-French pre-war was the Belgian refusal to even discuss plans in the event of an attack. The Belgians (perhaps not unreasonably) were so afraid of losing their neutral status in the eyes of the Germans, that they forbade such co-operation. I suspect that had the Germans attacked only Holland the Belgians would have thanked their lucky stars and been even less willing to be seen to be co-operating with the Western Allies!

Klydon -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/16/2014 12:37:48 PM)
Couple of comments. One of the strengths of WiF is the "what if". There are not a lot of historical "chains" imposed. Just because the Germans invaded Norway in the real war does not mean it should be done every time or most every time in WiF. Secondly, I don't think you will see any variation of MWiF like this from WiF for a very long, long time, if ever. The case to make Norway more attractive is either going to have to be addressed as house rules between players or the topic needs to be brought up to Harry.

Mike Parker -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (1/16/2014 8:52:18 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Klydon Couple of comments. One of the strengths of WiF is the "what if". There are not a lot of historical "chains" imposed. Just because the Germans invaded Norway in the real war does not mean it should be done every time or most every time in WiF. Secondly, I don't think you will see any variation of MWiF like this from WiF for a very long, long time, if ever. The case to make Norway more attractive is either going to have to be addressed as house rules between players or the topic needs to be brought up to Harry. I agree 100% although its still somewhat unfortunate. The problem isn't that Norway isn't invaded all the time, its just that it seems its almost never invaded and when it is its usually part of some oddball strategy of either the CW or the Axis. I remember my first WIF game, I was playing the Germans and being something of a WWII strategy buff I began to analyze the Norway situation... and I just couldn't come up with a reason to do it. In other games the value of interferring with Murmansk lend-lease and the value of basing Naval and Air units out of Bergen makes it somewhat viable (some games go overboard and almost make it a must do). I would be happy if current games saw an invasion of Norway 1 time in 10, it seems more like 1 in 50 by good players these days... why 1 in 10.. just a gut feeling or WAG!

Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - French Conquest (4/5/2020 2:40:43 AM)
Bump.

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