RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (Full Version)

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composer99 -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (5/26/2008 7:15:10 PM)

In my mind, the biggest problem with an Allied Danish gambit is that the Germans usually beat them to the punch, almost without exception.

After that, in principle the Danish gambit is a reasonable idea, even with the territory not under CW control being a no-fly zone for CW units.

However, you have to be very careful about letting the Germans break the pact at will. Obviously you would not do it if you were trying to stuff the border. Also, be sure not to do it if the Germans knock France over early. If they are going for a Sealion (and have spent the requisite build points on Marines and especially TRS) or are busy in Spain, it might be worth a shot, since they will be depending on your resources to fuel their war economy and will not want to break the pact under those circumstances.

I think it's worth doing, but the chance of being able to do it is very low.




npilgaard -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (5/29/2008 11:19:57 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: cockney
having a think about what the USSR ai should do.
1 historical attack eastern Poland and the balticks.
2 demand Finnish territories, if denied attack Finnland (winter war)
3 demand Moldova
4 attack Bulgaria
5 defend the Motherland with fighting withdrawals untill stong enough to counter attack.
ai should be able to determine at what stages to do each of these depending on the run of play.


Imho, not all of these have high priority. I would say (most of the below have probably been discussed earlier):
- eastern Poland and the Baltics should always be claimed (unless some especially cunning plan is being carried out)
- Bessarabia (sp?): often: setup are decent force near the Romanian border and claim early, while Germany doesn't have access and is occupied elsewhere. If not playing with the oil-rule Germany may be less reluctant to deny the claim.
- Finnish Borderlands: maybe half the time (?): need a strong force. Germany doesn't have to worry about losing the oil here, so not uncommon that they deny the claim. If German AMPH or TRS removed (e.g. by CW surprise port attack) reinforcements/peace keepers may have a hard time getting there. Otoh, if Germany has invaded Norway, Finland should be left alone by the USSR.
- Siberia: watch out for an Japanese attack - if they deploy in Manchuria rather than in China, it is probably on the way. Otoh, if Japan is going for China, it can often be worth it to a USSR DoW. However, that requires: 1) a strong force to allow for quick advance before Japan can build strong lines in good defense-terrain, and thus 2) should not be done while units are away to do stuff in Rumania, Finland or Persia). Also, 3) it is critical that the war can be ended fairly quickly (no later than fall '40, unless one is sure that the German player is not going for a '41 Barbarossa).
Such a war can buy USSR resources and a free back as long as a USSR-Japan peace treaty is in effect. Also, it can significantly take pressure off China, reduce Japanese production and kill Japanese units. Downside is, that the reverse can also come true, and if facing a '41 Barbarossa USSR can't afford many losses.
- Persia: if things are quiet in the East, Persia can be taken without to much trouble. Must be done so the Japanese don't get the oil, though, as mentioned in earlier posts.
- minor countries in Eastern Europe (e.g. Bulgaria): unless part of some unusual scheme: keep hands off them - much to easy for Germany to send peace keepers and thus to get USSR entangled in some unimportant fighting which won't give much benefit anyway.




npilgaard -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (5/29/2008 11:25:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: peskpesk
Denmark gambit, is it worth it?
(...)
What do you think?


To me it seems like these rules changes have been made specifically to stop 'gamey' strategies like the Denmark Gambit, and thus the disadvantages are now so great that it is not worth it. In special circumstances perhaps, but not in general.




Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 1:36:57 AM)

Peter has been doing work on the data files for setting up the Finnish units. Patrice has been kind enough to create screen shots of Peter's setups. None of these show any USSR units, but this first set is if there is a threat of teh USSR invading from the Baltic Sea.

Here is the data file the AIO will read, store and execute:
[Plan Invasion defence]
ONLY IF OptRule.SCSTransport OR (NOT OptRule.AmphibiousRules) THEN Invasion Defence

[Forces]

1939
1 INF (5-4), (37,47) Clear hex
1 HQI, (36,49) Forest hex
1 INF (6-3) wp, (35,50) Swamp hex
1 TAC, (36,48) Forest hex
1 CA Vaasa OR 1 CA Helsinki
1 CP Turku or 1 CP Hango
2 CP Vaasa or 1 CP Helsinki


IF OptRule.Divisions
1 INF DIV, Vaasa OR 1 INF DIV, Helsinki
=============
Here is what that translates to on the map.

[image]local://upfiles/16701/C9F299695BF5443FAE175400CC499FFF.jpg[/image]




Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 1:39:13 AM)

Here is if the same defense against an attack that takes place in 1940.
==============
[Plan Invasion defence]
ONLY IF OptRule.SCSTransport OR (NOT OptRule.AmphibiousRules) THEN Invasion Defence

[Forces]

1940
1 INF (5-4), (37,47) Clear hex
1 MOT, (36,52) Forest hex
1 INF (6-3) wp, (36,52) Forest hex
1 HQI, Viipuri Forest hex, minor port
1 TAC, (36,48) Forest hex
1 FTR, (36,50) Clear hex
1 CA Vaasa OR 1 CA Helsinki
1 CP Turku or 1 CP Hango
2 CP Vaasa or 1 CP Helsinki


IF OptRule.Divisions
1 INF DIV, Vaasa OR 1 INF DIV, Helsinki
==============


[image]local://upfiles/16701/FEF063B3F16047458E3B9FAD8E260FF6.jpg[/image]




Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 1:41:25 AM)

A third version for 1941.
================
[Plan Invasion defence]
ONLY IF OptRule.SCSTransport OR (NOT OptRule.AmphibiousRules) THEN Invasion Defence

[Forces]

1941
1 INF (5-4), (37,47) Clear hex
1 INF (6-3) wp, (36,52) Forest hex
1 MOT, (36,52) Forest hex
1 HQI, Viipuri Forest hex, minor port
1 TAC, (36,48) Forest hex
1 FTR, (36,50) Clear hex
1 CA Vaasa OR 1 CA Helsinki
1 CP Turku or 1 CP Hango
2 CP Vaasa or 1 CP Helsinki

IF OptRule.Divisions
1 INF DIV, Vaasa OR 1 INF DIV, Helsinki OR 1 INF DIV, Petsamo
1 INF DIV, Viipuri
===============


[image]local://upfiles/16701/642758443EE640A88096D8322407D74A.jpg[/image]




Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 1:43:02 AM)

There are two variants for 1942. Here's the first (same data file).
==============
[Plan Invasion defence]
ONLY IF OptRule.SCSTransport OR (NOT OptRule.AmphibiousRules) THEN Invasion Defence

[Forces]

1942
1 INF (5-4), (37,47) Clear hex
1 MECH, (36,52) Forest hex
1 INF (6-3) wp, (36,52) Forest hex
1 MOT, Viipuri Forest hex, minor port
1 HQI, (35,50) Swamp hex OR (36,49) Forest hex
1 TAC, (36,48) Forest hex
1 FTR, (36,50) Clear hex
1 CA Vaasa OR 1 CA Helsinki
1 CP Turku or 1 CP Hango
2 CP Vaasa or 1 CP Helsinki

IF OptRule.Divisions
1 INF DIV, Vaasa OR 1 INF DIV, Helsinki OR 1 INF DIV, Petsamo
1 INF DIV, Viipuri
================

[image]local://upfiles/16701/60FCBD07F90841CC92B93A94D287223D.jpg[/image]




lomyrin -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 1:44:16 AM)

What - no unit in Petsamo ?

Lars




Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 1:44:45 AM)

And here is the variation on the previous post.
==========
[Plan Invasion defence]
ONLY IF OptRule.SCSTransport OR (NOT OptRule.AmphibiousRules) THEN Invasion Defence

[Forces]

1942
1 INF (5-4), (37,47) Clear hex
1 MECH, (36,52) Forest hex
1 INF (6-3) wp, (36,52) Forest hex
1 MOT, Viipuri Forest hex, minor port
1 HQI, (35,50) Swamp hex OR (36,49) Forest hex
1 TAC, (36,48) Forest hex
1 FTR, (36,50) Clear hex
1 CA Vaasa OR 1 CA Helsinki
1 CP Turku or 1 CP Hango
2 CP Vaasa or 1 CP Helsinki

IF OptRule.Divisions
1 INF DIV, Vaasa OR 1 INF DIV, Helsinki OR 1 INF DIV, Petsamo
1 INF DIV, Viipuri
=============

[image]local://upfiles/16701/8C29C841B03041908F607B2798C72291.jpg[/image]




Froonp -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 1:47:27 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: lomyrin
What - no unit in Petsamo ?
Lars

Some setups have a unit in Petsamo, but this unit is never shown on the screenshots, as I only took the southern part. However, you can see in the texts that some setups have units in Petsamo.

If that was me, I think that there would always be a unit in Petsame.




Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 1:49:46 AM)

6th and last in series.

Patrice thought you might want to have this information too.



[image]local://upfiles/16701/D0269DB62CA948E797C291761B477C75.jpg[/image]




wfzimmerman -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 2:41:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

A third version for 1941.
================
[Plan Invasion defence]
ONLY IF OptRule.SCSTransport OR (NOT OptRule.AmphibiousRules) THEN Invasion Defence

[Forces]

1941
1 INF (5-4), (37,47) Clear hex
1 INF (6-3) wp, (36,52) Forest hex
1 MOT, (36,52) Forest hex
1 HQI, Viipuri Forest hex, minor port
1 TAC, (36,48) Forest hex
1 FTR, (36,50) Clear hex
1 CA Vaasa OR 1 CA Helsinki
1 CP Turku or 1 CP Hango
2 CP Vaasa or 1 CP Helsinki

IF OptRule.Divisions
1 INF DIV, Vaasa OR 1 INF DIV, Helsinki OR 1 INF DIV, Petsamo
1 INF DIV, Viipuri
===============


[image]local://upfiles/16701/642758443EE640A88096D8322407D74A.jpg[/image]


What about a Soviet attack north of Lake Ladoga?




Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 2:56:06 AM)

In all of these, Finland is assumed to still hold the Finnish Borderlands. The sequence is: the USSR claims/demands the Finnish Borderlands, Germany refuses to grant the claim, and the USSR declares war on Finland. How does the AIO set up the Finnish units?

So, the USSR would be starting pretty far back to go around Lake Ladoga.
--------------------------
What I am looking for is a critique of the setup, so don't be shy. I have given this zero thought myself and won't really have the time in the near future. I'll let you duke it out amongst yourselves.

I expect we might need some more conditions in the data set, depending on the placement of the USSR units. For these 5 screenshots, the only assumption about the USSR units is that "they might invade from the Baltic Sea".

I have several more sets already prepared by Peter and Patrice for other threats (e.g., paradrop). I'll probably do one set a day for the next few days.

This is just for setting up Finland! But I want to work out the kinks in the process of creating data sets that handle different situations.

My main goal is to get the data format solid so it can be used for all the different possibilities. If we can do this for Finland, then we'll be 90% done for all setups.




Froonp -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 8:40:47 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: wfzimmerman
What about a Soviet attack north of Lake Ladoga?


IIUC, these setups are only against a threat of invasion from the sea (with SCS option on OR AMPH option off).




wosung -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 10:36:49 AM)

Any danger of invasion from the sea of the hex with the Fokker D XXI in it?

Regards




peskpesk -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 11:43:27 AM)

The notional unit has 1 combat factor, modified by:

+1 if it is a city hex;
+1 if the hex is in the home country of the major power that controls the hex;
+1 if it is not stacked with a land unit, but is in the ZOC of a friendly corps/army;
+ the shore bombardment modifier for each invading unit;
-1 if it cannot trace a basic supply path of any length; and
-1 if surprised (see 15.).
 
Some, in this case,
+1 notional unit
-1 if surprised
+1 but is in the ZOC of a friendly corps
 
As always the options are important when deciding on a setup, but If we are playing with (Option 26) Amphibs and option 25(SCS Invasion): This might be a real scenario.
So the crack USSR 2-3 INF DIV invading during fine weather from an SCS (in the highest sea box), will have a some difficulties. 60% of taking the hex without self getting killed  with 1D10 and less on the 2D10. 2 halved for invading=1. Plus 1 for shore bombardment. Plus 1 for ground support. Gives 3-1 assault (+1 due to the notional unit being automatically face-down).
 
But you are correct, maybe we should move the FTR on hex North west or give the USSR a fine GS target and stack it with the HQ.




bredsjomagnus -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 11:47:01 AM)

Isnīt it possible to invade Helsinki?




Froonp -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 11:51:19 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: wosung

Any danger of invasion from the sea of the hex with the Fokker D XXI in it?

Regards

Yes, but there is a bonus to the notional unit defending the hex (empty hexes have a notional unit defending against invasion & paradrop, so invasion & paradrops rarely are automatic successes) because of the adjacent corps.




Froonp -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 11:54:01 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: bredsjomagnus

Isnīt it possible to invade Helsinki?

Possible, but the notional defendig the hex has 1+1 (city) +1 (zoc) combat factors, -1 if surprised.
So it is likely that it has 2 combat factors.
If the invasion is done by a division with 2 combat factors, it is a 1:2 combat.
If the invasion is done by a 6 conmbat factors corps, it is a 3:2 combat.
Anyway it is far from an automatic success.

This said, I'd personaly prefer to have a land unit there.




bredsjomagnus -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 12:09:39 PM)

Yes, I agree. If USSR get that major port Finland will IMHO have a huge red problem on there neck.




Froonp -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 12:18:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: bredsjomagnus

Yes, I agree. If USSR get that major port Finland will IMHO have a huge red problem on there neck.

Yes, a problem called "conquest".




bredsjomagnus -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 12:21:09 PM)

Exactly




peskpesk -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 1:24:08 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp
This said, I'd personaly prefer to have a land unit there.



So IF we switch

FROM

IF OptRule.Divisions
1 INF DIV, Vaasa OR 1 INF DIV, Helsinki OR 1 INF DIV, Petsamo
1 INF DIV, Viipuri

TO something like

IF OptRule.Divisions
1 INF DIV, Helsinki
1 INF DIV, Vaasa OR 1 INF DIV, Viipuri OR 1 INF DIV, Petsamo


Finland is safer.




npilgaard -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 3:00:59 PM)

Another condition could be whether Germany has taken Norway. In that case, iirc, they are allowed to rail units to Finland.
If Germany has units to spare (not heavily engaged elsewhere), that would make Oulu important - if even a DIV invades there the Germans are stopped, so placing a Finnish DIV would probably be a good idea (or otoh - maybe the USSR can just invade further north cutting the rail anyway - but at least then they won't have a port upthere)

Other things to consider:
- where is the USSR TRS located - in the Black Sea or Leningrad. If in Leningrad then a DIV-invasion of an unprotected Finnish port followed by debark next turn can make the situation worse than just a single DIV in the back
- does USSR have ships with invasion forces in the Baltic already. When not active and with combined impulses only 1 naval unit can move each turn, limiting the invasion threat - but if a few SCSs with DIVs are available then several landing sites are possible.
- are USSR active - in that case the entire fleet can move on the invasion impulse
- is it winter - in that case the Lake is often frozen
- is the non-ZoC on surprise optional rules used - as with all minors, that would weaken the defense somewhat making invasions/paradrops/moving across the lake during winter easier (and especially the '39 setup needs to be modified)
- is Germany prepared to help, and are the German TRS/AMPH available - in that case perhaps a second unit in Viipuri (or maybe even any unit) is not necessary, as Germans can be debarked there during the following impulse (if port is not closed due to winter)

Also, maybe there are a couple of setup variants that are fairly equal in strength - than I think it would be a good idea to include them all and then have one selected random, so the USSR player won't know the setup with 100% certainty - that will provide him with to great an advantage, imho. So maybe 2-3 setups can be devised for each scenario - or is that to much work? After all, there are lots of minors to decide setup for, and lots of conditions for each setup. Otoh, it is fun to consider setups, and most players will give it a try, I think.




Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 7:15:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: npilgaard

Another condition could be whether Germany has taken Norway. In that case, iirc, they are allowed to rail units to Finland.
If Germany has units to spare (not heavily engaged elsewhere), that would make Oulu important - if even a DIV invades there the Germans are stopped, so placing a Finnish DIV would probably be a good idea (or otoh - maybe the USSR can just invade further north cutting the rail anyway - but at least then they won't have a port upthere)

Other things to consider:
- where is the USSR TRS located - in the Black Sea or Leningrad. If in Leningrad then a DIV-invasion of an unprotected Finnish port followed by debark next turn can make the situation worse than just a single DIV in the back
- does USSR have ships with invasion forces in the Baltic already. When not active and with combined impulses only 1 naval unit can move each turn, limiting the invasion threat - but if a few SCSs with DIVs are available then several landing sites are possible.
- are USSR active - in that case the entire fleet can move on the invasion impulse
- is it winter - in that case the Lake is often frozen
- is the non-ZoC on surprise optional rules used - as with all minors, that would weaken the defense somewhat making invasions/paradrops/moving across the lake during winter easier (and especially the '39 setup needs to be modified)
- is Germany prepared to help, and are the German TRS/AMPH available - in that case perhaps a second unit in Viipuri (or maybe even any unit) is not necessary, as Germans can be debarked there during the following impulse (if port is not closed due to winter)

Also, maybe there are a couple of setup variants that are fairly equal in strength - than I think it would be a good idea to include them all and then have one selected random, so the USSR player won't know the setup with 100% certainty - that will provide him with to great an advantage, imho. So maybe 2-3 setups can be devised for each scenario - or is that to much work? After all, there are lots of minors to decide setup for, and lots of conditions for each setup. Otoh, it is fun to consider setups, and most players will give it a try, I think.


Yes.

I know that there are a lot of possibilites for setting up Finland, which is one of the reasons I like analyzing it now. As I said before, if we can work out the details for setting up Finland, then (1) the data structure for selecting and placing units, (2) how we handle optional rules, and (3) how we handle numerous other game conditions will be worked out.

I have two goals: get the AIO language defined so it is robust enough to accommodate all this stuff, and (2) decide how to set up Finland. They really go hand-in-hand.

Therefore,...

For each of the conditions you listed, what adjustments would you make to the Finnish setup?




wfzimmerman -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 7:39:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: npilgaard

Another condition could be whether Germany has taken Norway. In that case, iirc, they are allowed to rail units to Finland.
If Germany has units to spare (not heavily engaged elsewhere), that would make Oulu important - if even a DIV invades there the Germans are stopped, so placing a Finnish DIV would probably be a good idea (or otoh - maybe the USSR can just invade further north cutting the rail anyway - but at least then they won't have a port upthere)

Other things to consider:
- where is the USSR TRS located - in the Black Sea or Leningrad. If in Leningrad then a DIV-invasion of an unprotected Finnish port followed by debark next turn can make the situation worse than just a single DIV in the back
- does USSR have ships with invasion forces in the Baltic already. When not active and with combined impulses only 1 naval unit can move each turn, limiting the invasion threat - but if a few SCSs with DIVs are available then several landing sites are possible.
- are USSR active - in that case the entire fleet can move on the invasion impulse
- is it winter - in that case the Lake is often frozen
- is the non-ZoC on surprise optional rules used - as with all minors, that would weaken the defense somewhat making invasions/paradrops/moving across the lake during winter easier (and especially the '39 setup needs to be modified)
- is Germany prepared to help, and are the German TRS/AMPH available - in that case perhaps a second unit in Viipuri (or maybe even any unit) is not necessary, as Germans can be debarked there during the following impulse (if port is not closed due to winter)

Also, maybe there are a couple of setup variants that are fairly equal in strength - than I think it would be a good idea to include them all and then have one selected random, so the USSR player won't know the setup with 100% certainty - that will provide him with to great an advantage, imho. So maybe 2-3 setups can be devised for each scenario - or is that to much work? After all, there are lots of minors to decide setup for, and lots of conditions for each setup. Otoh, it is fun to consider setups, and most players will give it a try, I think.


Yes.

I know that there are a lot of possibilites for setting up Finland, which is one of the reasons I like analyzing it now. As I said before, if we can work out the details for setting up Finland, then (1) the data structure for selecting and placing units, (2) how we handle optional rules, and (3) how we handle numerous other game conditions will be worked out.

I have two goals: get the AIO language defined so it is robust enough to accommodate all this stuff, and (2) decide how to set up Finland. They really go hand-in-hand.

Therefore,...

For each of the conditions you listed, what adjustments would you make to the Finnish setup?

I'd like to suggest that whenever possible the setup options should include (as one of several possibilities) "historical".




brian brian -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 8:12:02 PM)

[For Germany to rail through Sweden to Finland, it must already have a unit in Norway AND Finland, so the first German corps unit to land in Finland will have to come by TRS/AMPH or a div via SCS (barring extremely unlikely mid-war scenarios with longer range German ATR available). Just wanted to clear that up, wouldn't have a lot of impact on a Finnish set-up I would think - Finland should most likely have higher priorities than keeping the rail link to Sweden open; it would be useful for Germany but not completely essential either. One situation where that may not be true is if the USSR were to attack Finland shortly before Barbarossa was due to launch and the Germans would love to rail in to Finland, but that is another extremely unlikely situation.]


You might also want to think about 'offensive' Finnish set-ups for the start of Barbarossa...

With AMPH rules in play Helsinki is fairly safe. With a Finnish ZoC on it, the Russians can only get a 2:2 on it for a very low % +2 attack with only one unit on a surprise impulse that is the Russian's first move of the turn. On the 2nd impulse the USSR could add the Engineer division and go to 3:3 = +2 > +3 for notional, but with two units attacking there is a somewhat better chance of success, although still somewhere south of 25% I would think? But by the 2nd impulse there could be a German unit covering Helsinki anyway. So I'd rather cover more landing sites with ZoCs than use a unit in Helsinki. (unless Russia has PARAs or something).
Perhaps one + higher if the Russians moved out a Shore Bombardment ship before the DoW impulse, or with such a telegraph move or even 2 such they could raise the surprise attack all the way to 4.5:2 = +5.5 with 2 invading units and then you might want to cover Helsinki, IF the Russians made those advance naval moves.

So a setup variable could be the presence of loaded Russian SCS or an unloaded BB in the Baltic Sea prior to DoW.




composer99 -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 10:05:47 PM)

What is the "historical" Finnish set-up for the Winter War? Could you re-create it given the scale of the land units?




Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 10:34:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

[For Germany to rail through Sweden to Finland, it must already have a unit in Norway AND Finland, so the first German corps unit to land in Finland will have to come by TRS/AMPH or a div via SCS (barring extremely unlikely mid-war scenarios with longer range German ATR available). Just wanted to clear that up, wouldn't have a lot of impact on a Finnish set-up I would think - Finland should most likely have higher priorities than keeping the rail link to Sweden open; it would be useful for Germany but not completely essential either. One situation where that may not be true is if the USSR were to attack Finland shortly before Barbarossa was due to launch and the Germans would love to rail in to Finland, but that is another extremely unlikely situation.]


You might also want to think about 'offensive' Finnish set-ups for the start of Barbarossa...

With AMPH rules in play Helsinki is fairly safe. With a Finnish ZoC on it, the Russians can only get a 2:2 on it for a very low % +2 attack with only one unit on a surprise impulse that is the Russian's first move of the turn. On the 2nd impulse the USSR could add the Engineer division and go to 3:3 = +2 > +3 for notional, but with two units attacking there is a somewhat better chance of success, although still somewhere south of 25% I would think? But by the 2nd impulse there could be a German unit covering Helsinki anyway. So I'd rather cover more landing sites with ZoCs than use a unit in Helsinki. (unless Russia has PARAs or something).
Perhaps one + higher if the Russians moved out a Shore Bombardment ship before the DoW impulse, or with such a telegraph move or even 2 such they could raise the surprise attack all the way to 4.5:2 = +5.5 with 2 invading units and then you might want to cover Helsinki, IF the Russians made those advance naval moves.

So a setup variable could be the presence of loaded Russian SCS or an unloaded BB in the Baltic Sea prior to DoW.

Perhaps I could translate a bunch of these 'ifs' into what the best attack odds are for the USSR invading/paradropping into Helsinki?

That could take into consideration shore bombardment, ground support, and even the possiblity of using a full INF army from a TRS if not playing with AMPHs.

Let's assume the AIO can work out the best attack the USSR can make in the first impulse after its DOW. At what level of odds should the Finns put a real unit into Helsinki, instead of just a ZOC?




Orm -> RE: AI for MWiF - USSR (6/5/2008 11:58:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Perhaps I could translate a bunch of these 'ifs' into what the best attack odds are for the USSR invading/paradropping into Helsinki?

That could take into consideration shore bombardment, ground support, and even the possiblity of using a full INF army from a TRS if not playing with AMPHs.

Let's assume the AIO can work out the best attack the USSR can make in the first impulse after its DOW. At what level of odds should the Finns put a real unit into Helsinki, instead of just a ZOC?


There is no disaster if USSR succeds with landing a division in Helsinki. If the weather is fine most (all?) of the Finnish army is in supply and could make a nice counterattack on Helsinki. If that attack succeds it may even be the end of the war. What the AI must look for is if USSR can ATR in more divisions and if USSR can invade with a corps. If it is likely that the turn might end after the suprise it might be prudent to start with a unit in Helsinki.

With that said I would say that the odds for USSR to get a faceup division or more in Helsinki should never be allowed to be more than 20%.




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