Feinder
Posts: 6589
Joined: 9/4/2002
From: Land o' Lakes, FL
Status: offline
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I wouldn't jump into invading Baker right now. If you take Baker, it's not going to draw off divisions from Oz. He's going to have plenty of LBA in the Marshalls, and quite a few guys at Baker. It's going to cost YOU. You'll need to bring 2 - 3 Divs, at least. Whereas, if you capture Baker (you could), he'll just go, "Hm. He captured Baker. Not unexpected. That's 2 - 3 Divisions I know aren't commited against me in Oz. I can bombard Baker with BBs and bomb the crap out of it, it'll be useless to him (in fact, be a liability to you)."
You go for Baker, and it takes a little pressure off Canton (*just re-read, you don't even own Canton : Captuing Baker would be a no-no, Canton can clobber you *), but it has little use to you otherwise. It's what you'll eventually use to threaten/stage against the Gilberts or Marshalls. He -knows- you're NOT going to invade Gilbers/Marshalls any time soon, so I wouldn't bother responding to losing Baker if I were him. Dave - "Fine. Baker was going to go sometime. It's not doing him that much good. He can watch G/M. *shrug* Can't -effectively- base B-17s there, and Baker is too far for most 2e bombers to bomb anything in G/M anyway. He's got to worry about Oz, before invading Marshalls, to this is a major threat to me because...?"
Yes, taking some of the attention away from Oz is good tho. If you want to invade something, make it something more useful to you. Do you still own Midway, Johnston, Palmyra, Christmas? If so, do you own Canton Island? If so, what about Pago-Pago, Upulo, Wallis? You have those three (probably not), look at Tongapu (or whatever it's called). THOSE bases will get his attention. Those bases are your chain to Oz (which you're going to need). And Pago Pago for example, is his eyes into SoPac, forcing you to divert convoys a long way around to Oz (+3 weeks travel to say out of range of his eyes). At the same time, it's blinding you to KB's movements. Recaputre Pago-Pago (* or Canton *), and you turn some lights on for you, and poke his eyes out (at least for part of the way, you're making progress).
Frankly, I'd wait for...
Get Wasp. She shows up in about July? Keep your CVs in good condition (under 10 sys damage), and with those July refits. Most folks don't realize that more sys damage a ship has, the higher intrensic detection level, and is easier to spot. A ship producing smoke (sys > 10), is much easier to get pegged by a patrol. You do -NOT- want ships with >10 sys in your CV TFs. All that is said because, Dave either already has, or will need to soon, port KB. Just puttering around, will rack up Sys into the teens and 20s. He knows that dangerous (high DL), it also means one hit closes a flight deck. -VERY- bad news for CV combat. With Wasp (and maybe you can get the RN CVs all the way around Oz, I did), you -can- stand up to him. Without Wasp (and better with the RN), he'll bop your hapless-5, and then you're screwed.
Frankly, if you haven't seen KB in a while, he's probably got some (2 - 3 CVs) in SoPac, probably Junyo and the newer ones, it doesn't take your best CVs to hunt convoys. The rest are likely sitting in port burning off sys damage, so he can get his own AAA refits, and face you at full strength when you -do- show up to fight. On the other hand, I think it -is- a good bet that most of his CVs are ported, maybe some patrolling SoPac. That -could- be an opportunity for you to go 5 on 3 or somethiing. However, you have no eyes (LBA) to spot him, and point you in the right direction. With 3 day turns, it's going going to be tough to get an intercept. Meanwhile, he will have Emilys out looking, and you'll be racking up sys damage on your own CVs. Frankly, I wouldn't look for that fight (you're not really sure if he's even there). I -would- use your CVs to escort a convoy with 4 Divs in a mega-convoy to Oz. If KB is there, you can't afford to lose the convoy unescorted. The convoy would actually act as a diversion, and might steal off a strike or two, that might have hit your CVs. It (sort of) drawns down the odds a little with less bombs on your CVs, and maybe your own CVs get some licks in. While, I would escort the convoy, it's still and engagement I'd avoid.
For your invasions, it has been my experience, that actual -recon- type aircraft make a huge difference. Yes, that sounds like a "duh". But considering you could recon Baker for months with PBYs and Coronados, I would still only get "number" of units. Wait until Jul/Aug when you've got 2 sqdns of F5As, and you'll see actual troop numbers. "8 units" might be 2 base forces, a CD gun, 2 flak, and 2 SNLF Btns. It might be 2 Divisions. "8 units" could be anything. I wouldn't want to invade if all my intel says is "8 units".
Also, if you havne't got Bodhi's Untility. Get it. I hope you save the old sigint reports (or start doing it now!). Maybe you have them in your inbox (he usually sends them), and haven't deleted the hold files. THere's a LOT of info in Sigint, if you compile it (or rather let Bodhi do it for you). You might actually find out what those 8 units are from signint. You might see that he actually -is- prepping for an invasion of Tville (reference the Jap OB tho, he might just be prepping a Home Guard Division as red herring, or it might worth "considering", if you get other units prepping for same high value target).
Dave is a wiley one. Be patient.
-F-
< Message edited by Feinder -- 4/7/2006 3:14:47 PM >
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