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RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:06:03 PM   
Nikademus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

i must say, you guys sound a lot more optimistic than i do about this NK mess - i've been thinking for years there was going to be a really nasty war in Korea, and these developments do not look good at all.


You might be right, esp with our conventional forces stretched to the breaking point (according to some) as it is.

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RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:07:02 PM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

ORIGINAL: niceguy2005


quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

i must say, you guys sound a lot more optimistic than i do about this NK mess - i've been thinking for years there was going to be a really nasty war in Korea, and these developments do not look good at all.

We will see, but NK has a long history of saying one thing and doing another. THe Chinese may yet be surprised.



i think that even with the sanctions that are in place now, there will be a major meltdown in the North Korean economy in the next year, and then something will probably hit the rotary air displacement device. Of course, China could once again reverse its position and start sending in aid to N. Korea, but that would again cause "loss of face". So it might boil down to which they think is worse - loss of face or a major exodus of North Koreans into their territory.

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Post #: 25322
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:12:50 PM   
VSWG


Posts: 3432
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From: Germany
Status: offline 		A war? No way. China's not going to let that happen... and the US is not going to start it. China is the rising power in Asia, so it's not going to risk this promising perspective for a war that might have catastophic diplomatic consequences (all of Asia rallying behind the US against loony NK). Stability is the mantra of China ATM.

Right now China is trying to corrobate its economic influence in Asia with diplomatic means ("Peace and Security and Profits for everyone in Asia... except Taiwan."). NK interfered with that strategy, and got slapped - hard enough to show everyone that you shouldn't mess with China, but not so hard to make Kim Jong Il bite the dust. And even if Our Dear Leader really is a loon, he knows that China's not going to "tolerate" a war... and if he doesn't know it, his generals do.

Just my 2 cents... Have to run now...

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RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:14:21 PM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

maybe. They already had a falling out with Vietnam back in the past which, IIRC came to blows for a bit. I think ultimately they'll exert subtler methods here given NK's economic dependancy.

Then again, maybe the whole thing will blow up and we'll have Round IV on the Pensinula


Yeah - the Sino-Viet war in the 70's, iirc - the Vietnamese backed down after being thrashed with heavy artillery/rocket fire for a while.

i think the Chinese will TRY to use subtler methods at first, but i don't think they have a lot of wiggle room between their current committments and what other pressures they can bring to bear.

Probably, the Chinese will start bringing in secret aid, and the international community will not be able to do much about it. However, the amount the Chinese will be able/willing to provide is not going to be enough to keep the NK economy from melting down.

That's my gut feeling, and probably worth everything you've paid for it.

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Post #: 25324
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:18:12 PM   
niceguy2005


Posts: 12523
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Status: offline 		I suspect the worst is over from a nuclear crisis standpoint unless the NK regime defies Beijing. I'm not sure what the Chinese really said to NK but I suspect it was something along the lines of "knock it off or else." Clearly the gloves came off.

If NK defies China I suspect China will break with its long standing policy of non-interference and start a policy of regime change.

All I can say is thank the Thread I'm not from NK. I'm quite sure that the regime would be more than content to let its people starve if they could do something to put themselves in a better bargaining position with China and the west.

I will go out on a limb though and say there is no way US forces will become involved in a conflict with Korea except if NK attacks SK.

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RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:19:59 PM   
Terminus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Smart and crazy are not mutually exclusive.


Exactly. Classic case in point: Hitler. I read Guderian's "Panzer Leader", where he more than once comments on how the Führer had an almost photographic memory. He (Guderian) would tell Hitler something, and get a reply along the lines of, "that's not what you said at the conference on March 2nd, three years ago". And ole Adolf would be correct.

Of course, that was before he went really loopy, but still...

< Message edited by Terminus -- 10/20/2006 8:23:11 PM >

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RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:20:09 PM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

ORIGINAL: VSWG

A war? No way. China's not going to let that happen... and the US is not going to start it. China is the rising power in Asia, so it's not going to risk this promising perspective for a war that might have catastophic diplomatic consequences (all of Asia rallying behind the US against loony NK). Stability is the mantra of China ATM.

Right now China is trying to corrobate its economic influence in Asia with diplomatic means ("Peace and Security and Profits for everyone in Asia... except Taiwan."). NK interfered with that strategy, and got slapped - hard enough to show everyone that you shouldn't mess with China, but not so hard to make Kim Jong Il bite the dust. And even if Our Dear Leader really is a loon, he knows that China's not going to "tolerate" a war... and if he doesn't know it, his generals do.

Just my 2 cents... Have to run now...



Well, given KJI's (and others) past behavior, i would hazard a guess that China might not have a say in the matter if things get bad enough in N. Korea.

Scenario: North Korea's economy takes a sudden and disastorous turn for the worst. THe political situation in North Korea becomes destabilized, and N. Korea can get no significant relief from China as relations have deteriorated over a refugee crisis due to the economy. Due to the megalomania of certain leaders, the only way they seen out of the crisis (i.e. - only way they can hold onto power( is to attack South Korea. They pop off a couple of nukes and away we go...

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RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:22:34 PM   
Terminus


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Status: offline 		The NK economy can't take a disastrous turn for the worse. It's already taken it...

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Post #: 25328
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:23:21 PM   
Mike Solli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: niceguy2005


quote:

ORIGINAL: Onime No Kyo


quote:

ORIGINAL: niceguy2005

*pre-commute tithe.


Silly MST person.

Yup. At least there is no snow today. Plus, ONLY 24 HOURS UNTIL THE WEEKEND.


WOOOOOHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!


Ah, for me it already is the weekend. I'm finally getting used to my 4 12 hour shifts. I already finished 2 PBEM turns. Now if my opponents would bother to leave work to do their turns.....

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Post #: 25329
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:24:45 PM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

ORIGINAL: niceguy2005

I will go out on a limb though and say there is no way US forces will become involved in a conflict with Korea except if NK attacks SK.



i think this is a pretty safe bet for the forseeable future (not much of a limb).

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Post #: 25330
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:25:07 PM   
Mike Solli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658


quote:

ORIGINAL: Onime No Kyo


quote:

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658
My wife is 35 and I am pushing 39 so I doubt we will have any more children.


...or sex.



With 2 kids I doubt I will have the energy for a while anyway.

At 36 I get to cash her in for two 18 year olds.


Hi honey I didn't see you there....no really ....I was kidding....really.....put the frying pan down........ (thunk!)



Actually, you may want to consider a 20 yr old and a 16 yr old. When the 20 yr old is too old, the 16 yr old will be just about right.

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Post #: 25331
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:26:28 PM   
Nikademus


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From: Alien spacecraft
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus

quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Smart and crazy are not mutually exclusive.


Exactly. Classic case in point: Hitler. I read Guderian's "Panzer Leader", where he more than once comments on how the Führer had an almost photographic memory. He (Guderian) would tell Hitler something, and get a reply along the lines of, "that's not what you said at the conference on March 2nd, three years ago". And ole Adolf would be correct.

Of course, that was before he went really loopy, but still...


well remember my term "poker". Its been suggested that Kim's "Looney in the limelight" impression is a cultivated one. As for Hitler....yes, once things turned south on him he slid into a decline of insanity, but up to the point of that fall, he had his wits and was anything but crazy. Often he was right where his "professionals" were wrong. Being smart, also doesn't mean you don't make mistakes. Sadaam was "smart" too, but he made a major miscalculation when he invaded Kuwait. he seemed to honestly believe the West would not act. Wrongo. That didn't make him insane.....just mistaken....(ok...really badly mistaken)

Kim....well up to this point you can argue his tactics have been working....US is frustrated, world is frustrated, spotlight remains on NK...calls keep getting made from various quarters for "dialogue"....all this despite the fact that the NK's have been clearly in violation of signed agreements. Just because China decides to confer doesn't mean he was insane, just that he steppped over a line. (though i wonder openly just how "strong" the Chinese slapdown was.....all we know is Bejing sent an envoy and Kim said, no planned tests in the near future...its not like he apologized or anything)




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Post #: 25332
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:29:10 PM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus

The NK economy can't take a disastrous turn for the worse. It's already taken it...



i've learned that things can ALWAYS get worse.

A few years ago, 1 million + North Koreans starved to death and they (supposedly) reverted to cannibalism in some areas. They got bailed out of the situation largely due to South Korea efforts (with some help from the Chinese and Japanese, and others).

Now, 2 of the 3 aid "legs" (and maybe most of the third leg) are gone. i guess the Russians could step in with some aid (i think they have a rail link, i'll have to find a map). They might do this just to embarass the Chinese.

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Post #: 25333
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:34:04 PM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

Its been suggested that Kim's "Looney in the limelight" impression is a cultivated one.


That's the latest trendy thinking - but i'm not so sure if it is correct. True, he is cunning and ruthless, but Kim has done stuff like kidnapping Japanese movie stars so that he could (apparently) use them in a movie he was making, as well as other bizarre behavior.

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Post #: 25334
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:35:57 PM   
Terminus


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Joined: 4/23/2005
From: Denmark
Status: offline 		He certainly has at least one issue: his height. The man wears platform shoes and has huge hair.

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Post #: 25335
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:41:17 PM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Russians could step in with some aid (i think they have a rail link, i'll have to find a map). They might do this just to embarass the Chinese.



Yep - the Russians still have a (small) common border, and i am pretty sure they had a rail link there...




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Post #: 25336
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:41:23 PM   
RUPD3658


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli


quote:

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658


quote:

ORIGINAL: Onime No Kyo


quote:

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658
My wife is 35 and I am pushing 39 so I doubt we will have any more children.


...or sex.



With 2 kids I doubt I will have the energy for a while anyway.

At 36 I get to cash her in for two 18 year olds.


Hi honey I didn't see you there....no really ....I was kidding....really.....put the frying pan down........ (thunk!)



Actually, you may want to consider a 20 yr old and a 16 yr old. When the 20 yr old is too old, the 16 yr old will be just about right.


I have a 16 year old niece. With the amount of time that a 16 year old girl talks each day I don't think this is a good idea. At least I can have both the 18 year olds get jobs to keep them busy.


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Post #: 25337
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:42:28 PM   
RUPD3658


Posts: 6922
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Status: offline 		North Korea is only 3-4 hexes. It should fall in no time at all.

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Post #: 25338
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:54:12 PM   
rtrapasso


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ORIGINAL: Terminus

He certainly has at least one issue: his height. The man wears platform shoes and has huge hair.



Who in North Korea could fail to be inspired by 5'2" Kim (which is supposed to be 4" shorter than Napoleon)?




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RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:54:45 PM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658

North Korea is only 3-4 hexes. It should fall in no time at all.



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Post #: 25340
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 8:56:40 PM   
rtrapasso


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Status: offline 		MATRIX JUMPS THE GUN??

Here i am just now posting #10000, and the pizza delivery guy showed up with a free complementary pizza from Matrix!!! (how DO they know??? )

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Post #: 25341
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 9:02:36 PM   
rtrapasso


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Status: offline 		Is there any truth to the rumor that Kim Jong Il plays WITP? Only careful analysis of this photo might provide the truth...




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by rtrapasso -- 10/20/2006 9:04:29 PM >

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RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 9:03:57 PM   
RUPD3658


Posts: 6922
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From: East Brunswick, NJ
Status: offline 		Yeah! Pizza!

_____________________________

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"No plan survives contact with the enemy." - Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke


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Post #: 25343
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 9:04:51 PM   
RUPD3658


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Is there any truth to the rumor that Kim Jong Il plays WITP? Only careful analysis of this photo might provide the truth...





So now we say the face of Hirohito!

_____________________________

"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has limits"- Darwin Awards 2003

"No plan survives contact with the enemy." - Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke


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Post #: 25344
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 9:06:29 PM   
rtrapasso


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Status: offline 		It's just past 8:00 a.m. here, but in my book pizza isn't just for breakfast anymore, so i'll probably save some for lunch!

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Post #: 25345
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 9:10:26 PM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RUPD3658


quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Is there any truth to the rumor that Kim Jong Il plays WITP? Only careful analysis of this photo might provide the truth...





So now we say the face of Hirohito!



Yes, the mysterious Hirohito, calling in from the Far East, who claimed to have always whupped the Allies without taking any losses - it all makes sense now, doesn't it?

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Post #: 25346
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 9:16:01 PM   
Terminus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

MATRIX JUMPS THE GUN??

Here i am just now posting #10000, and the pizza delivery guy showed up with a free complementary pizza from Matrix!!! (how DO they know??? )


You HAD pizza??? I didn't get one...

Maybe I'll get two when I hit 20K. Yeah, that must be it...

_____________________________

We are all dreams of the Giant Space Butterfly.

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Post #: 25347
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 9:20:26 PM   
rtrapasso


Posts: 22653
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus


quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

MATRIX JUMPS THE GUN??

Here i am just now posting #10000, and the pizza delivery guy showed up with a free complementary pizza from Matrix!!! (how DO they know??? )


You HAD pizza??? I didn't get one...

Maybe I'll get two when I hit 20K. Yeah, that must be it...



oh - i might forgotten to mention that they accidentally misdelivered your 10K and 15K pizzas to me... - sorry about that...

(in reply to Terminus)
Post #: 25348
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 9:21:20 PM   
Terminus


Posts: 41459
Joined: 4/23/2005
From: Denmark
Status: offline 		The weinies...

_____________________________

We are all dreams of the Giant Space Butterfly.

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Post #: 25349
RE: The Thread!!! - 10/20/2006 9:37:06 PM   
Nikademus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Is there any truth to the rumor that Kim Jong Il plays WITP? Only careful analysis of this photo might provide the truth...






no. otherwise he'd know that no missle NK develops can ever hope to beat the Corsair.



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