Findings of Stats Analysis using v1.21

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Findings of Stats Analysis using v1.21 - 4/17/2006 5:04:08 AM

BryanK

Posts: 140
Joined: 8/21/2005
Status: offline

First thing I have to say is "Wow." I was pretty amazed how accurate the engine was, particularly with respect to how stats are distributed across the individual players. I hadn't been expecting this for a fictional league, but with the exception of like 3 metrics, everything was dead on.

Having said that, there are some places where the engine could be better for fictional associations:
1. Walks are too rare (i.e. the league average needs to be higher)
2. Homeruns are too frequent (i.e. the league average needs to be lower)

Also, there appears to be some small issues about how strikeout totals are distributed across both batters and pitchers. Depending on how easy it is to tweak, it also wouldn't hurt to have there be a *slight* widening of the HR distribution in batters. (i.e. relative to the league average, the best should hit more and the worst should hit fewer)

I didn't look at it in this data, but I'm eventually going to check the distributions for GS. Annecdotally, I remember the league leaders having more IP than I felt was normal, and based on some of the findings here I think it's because they probably had too many starts.

All in all, the engine is amazing solid. Great job, Shaun! I've prepared some slides that make my points, and all the data I used has been summarized into excel files if someone else wants to take a look.

For the slides, click HERE
For the summary sheets, click HERE

Note:
For those unfamiliar with Powerpoint, you can double click on the graph to open up a sheet that contains the datapoints used therein

< Message edited by BryanK -- 4/17/2006 5:21:01 AM >

Post #: 1

RE: Findings of Stats Analysis using v1.21 - 4/17/2006 5:29:10 AM

puresimmer

Posts: 2299
Joined: 7/24/2005
Status: offline

WOW!

That is simply INVALUABLE information. Thank you so very much. I will look at making tweaks to the areas you have suggested could be improved a bit.

I'm also really feeling great about how well the engine performed over 100+ simulated seasons of scrutiny :)

Really, thanks a lot for taking the time to do such a thoughtful analysis.

Shaun

_____________________________

Developer, PureSim Baseball

(in reply to BryanK)

Post #: 2

RE: Findings of Stats Analysis using v1.21 - 4/17/2006 5:52:01 AM

BryanK

Posts: 140
Joined: 8/21/2005
Status: offline

Aw, shucks. 'tweren't nothin.
:)

The game that Puresim is quickly becoming is one that I've dreamed of for a while now... since even before the BBEdit days. I'm just glad I can help.

As an added bonus from doing all this, I had a pretty cool conversation with my dad when we looked at the historical stats I needed for this analysis. You just can't put a price on that sort of stuff.

(in reply to puresimmer)

Post #: 3

RE: Findings of Stats Analysis using v1.21 - 4/17/2006 6:54:03 AM

galaril

Posts: 89
Joined: 3/20/2005
Status: offline

You my friend could be an IT auditor unless you already are?

(in reply to BryanK)

Post #: 4

RE: Findings of Stats Analysis using v1.21 - 4/17/2006 7:04:47 AM

BryanK

Posts: 140
Joined: 8/21/2005
Status: offline

Thanks :)
I'm actually a strategy analyst with a major credit card company... at least, for the next 12 days that is. I'm going back to school for my MBA in the fall, and I'm taking the rest of the spring and summer off. I'll probably end up getting a job as a summer camp counsellor or some such, but I'm still going to have a ton of time to make mods and do some follow up analysis on PS 2006.

All that being said, I've done a *lot* of this sorta work over the past 2 years. None of it was anywhere near as fun as ripping apart baseball stats, though ;)

btw... what does an IT auditor actually do?

(in reply to galaril)

Post #: 5

RE: Findings of Stats Analysis using v1.21 - 4/17/2006 7:20:16 AM

galaril

Posts: 89
Joined: 3/20/2005
Status: offline

Good question. Basically, we look at first the risk an organization faces when conducting there business. Once that is done we see that an organization has in IT controls in place to at least decrease these risks. When I say IT controls that would includemeasures/countermeasures taht deal with information systems, databases,computer networks, hardware and applications. Alot of the work boils down to checking access controls and security. It doesn't deal much with financial auditing that is another part of the audit process that CPA types are involved with. If you worked for a credit card service (banking) than you probably heard of Sarbanes oxley and especially Gramm, Biley and Leach laws that deal with auditing controls. Sorry you asked:)

(in reply to BryanK)

Post #: 6

RE: Findings of Stats Analysis using v1.21 - 4/17/2006 12:50:54 PM

finkenst

Posts: 1
Joined: 4/17/2006
Status: offline