RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem

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All Forums >> [Current Games From Matrix.] >> [World War II] >> War In The Pacific - Struggle Against Japan 1941 - 1945 >> Scenario Design >> RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem

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RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/8/2006 9:30:09 PM

el cid again

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No. I have amended my reply to include other matters.

I have also read more of your remarks. I believe you have accepted some common views of Japanese military technology which are incomplete and uncomplimentary.

Japanese tanks were not junk. In some cases Japan was an innovator - for example in the development and then application of diesel engines - a practice that post war became almost universal - with obvious benefits.
Their tanks would not overload the infrastructure of Asia - with a nominal road bridge rating of 10 tons (a heavier vehicle can cross without damage if it is alone and slow - but not a whole lot heavier). [This value you can see written in cement on the bridge supports - I am reporting what is there to see to this day - not quoting a book.] In some cases 1 or 2 light tanks were decisive - and we used weapons in the same class - but somehow Japan is foolish and we are wise? Double standard (SOP when discussing Japan). Are Bren carriers wrong? Look at The Standard Catalog of US Military Vehicles - are our vehicles in the same class mistakes? We also had amphibious "tanks" which could not have much in the way of protection, etc.

Japanese paper baloons had a different strategic mission which is not well documented - only Burt Webber's Secret War catalogs all their landing sites - and it is a fairly awful read. Nevetheless, he has got Japanese to dosclose things not in other published materials for a long time - although now three books do address the matter. [The first is Unit 731]. The baloon bombs with incendiaries were intended to establish if the baloons could deliver packages - but the package intended was ceramic bombs with flea vectors for anthrax. Japan had 16 tons of anthrax - enough to kill the population of the planet if it could be delivered to every person.
When the Soviets invaded, the question was raised between Commander Kwangtung Army and Gen Ichii of Unit 731 (according to his daughter, a witness, in a telephone conversation). They decided not to implement the plan, but to destroy the anthrax, the facilities, and everything else related.
There was a Navy varaition (in Secret War) - using aircraft carrier subs -
to launch baloons so close to the coast targeting of cities would be more precise. [And there is a series of books by a British engineer - and investigator of archives in London - claiming the First Submarine Flotilla may have had a similar mission with M6A1 aircraft - delivering radiological bombs and/or anthrax bombs. A US Army biologist says combining them might be more effective.] If you think we didn't do similar things - see the story of the Bat Bomb (not the Bat missile) - which was perfected but not used - using bats as "delivery vehicles" - and I have a letter written by Oppenheimer about a proposal by Fermi that we develop a radiological weapon. It may be the baloon bombs were potentially more a threat than is usually assumed.

Your view of the merchant marine illustrates how an impression can be completely wrong. I was virtualy quoting Parillo - paraphrasing his published view - and the numbers support him. Japan had engaged in a deliberate governmant subsidy program to insure its ships were retired in favor of new, faster ones - ships also with decks and booms able to handle landing craft - and to mount medium caliber guns. Parillo goes to USSBS and Japanese sources to give us the numbers - and no other merchant marine in the world compares in terms of average ship age or average ship speed. You cannot tell this in WITP (except in RHS) - because the people doing the data bases "knew" Japanese ships were slow - and thus a 22 knot AP is lucky to be rated at 15. You will search in vein the stock or CHS data sets for the large number of AKs able to do 18 knots (meaning 17, 18 or 19).

< Message edited by el cid again -- 8/8/2006 9:34:48 PM >

(in reply to RETIRED)

Post #: 31

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/8/2006 9:49:55 PM

el cid again

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Continuing,

One might compare the USN and US Army to the Japanese services - at times. Somewhere there is a book on the subject - but I forget its name.
If it is true the Japanese services failed to cooperate well much of the time, to say that and stop talking is grossly incomplete. In Japan's most effective campaign (Malaya) the services cooeprated almost perfectly - partly due to a Japanese navy captain who was army oriented - partly due no doubt to Yamashita's attitude - and partly due to doctrine itself.
Japan's army was required to use naval ships designs, ships with naval crews (I mean ARMY ships), and cooperation for amphibious operations.

Similarly, the use of different electrical systems (and you didn't say - but could have and been right - machine guns) on aircraft was a horrible inefficiency. But to stop there is to misrepresent the story. Japan eventualy changed this policy - and you have joint service aircraft operating together with the same aircraft - the same weapons - and the same electrical system. [This case is semi-unknown - although almost every book describing the Ki-67 mentions it in brief form. For a long time the effectiveness of the raids on B-29 bases was secret. That the army and navy COULD use the same bases to stage was new and different - and not something people focus on even when they do talk about these attacks - because other aspects of those joint operations are more interesting.] Japan eventually learned from its mistakes, coming up with joint designations for engines and guns, sharing formerly unshared radar sets, etc. And we made many similar mistakes - right down to NEVER getting a theater commander.

There are a few historians beginning to treat WWII history in a more balanced way. The first were Calvororicci et al - a book set (2 vol) with both Italian and British authors - rewritten with more authors addded - attempting an even handed and less propaganda oriented view. Another is the Welsh scholar who wrote Armegeddon - Welsh often are not entirely pro-British because of how they are treated to this day - this book attempts to dispel "the myths, lies and distortions of WWII". Popular history written for various reasons - but proably most of all to make money so it must say what will sell - is not the only kind. Academics eventualy usually get around to trying to understand the whole story - and writing in a later era often allows more objectivity.

(in reply to el cid again)

Post #: 32

Supply again - 8/9/2006 3:42:35 AM

Bombur

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-Back to the question of supply shortage...wouldn�t be better to increase supply by a factor of, say, 2-3 times, and decrease AK capacity in order to simulate the need of more shipping to transport resources?

(in reply to el cid again)

Post #: 33

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/9/2006 5:46:42 AM

Ron Saueracker

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Let's not forget that any increase in resources results in same increase in supply...which unfortunately porks everything anyway.

_____________________________

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Post #: 34

RE: Supply again - 8/9/2006 6:37:46 AM

el cid again

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bombur

-Back to the question of supply shortage...wouldn�t be better to increase supply by a factor of, say, 2-3 times, and decrease AK capacity in order to simulate the need of more shipping to transport resources?

We did do the second part of this. AK capacity is approximately divided by 2 - except for small vessels which are not fully represented in the listings. Also, a few additional AK - and some AO - are used on the lines of communication to Melbourne, Aden and Colon Panama - and they are not in play either. It is an experiment - I think we need to reduce it even more - but I prefer to insure the system still works with such a dramatic reduction in the context of a great increase in the number required.

We did attempt to triple resources as a first pass - and it was not enough to create the relative situation. We don't want to go too far in that direction - too many resources means they have little value - and we had to change the situation radically - because there were not enough on the entire map to meet Japan's initial needs (never mind expanded needs as it captures territory with industry in it and builds industry). There also had to be enough to feed Australian, Indian and US industry - since we are in RHS needing those supply points from that HI to feed an offensive. So we actually need at least 10x resources - it might be 30x - and only time will show if it is any value in that range. For example, we may find in 1944 that there is not enough resources to feed the by then expanded Allied HI.

Preliminary reports - and I ran one game into 1943 just this week - indicate that it may be 10x is a good guess. If so, I am slightly surprised.

(in reply to Bombur)

Post #: 35

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/9/2006 6:40:37 AM

el cid again

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ron Saueracker

Let's not forget that any increase in resources results in same increase in supply...which unfortunately porks everything anyway.

Oops - not in RHS. When I increased resources - I increased supply eathing sinks to fit. UNLESS a location ALSO generates supply in some form, it generates NO supply points at all. IF it generates both, we don't eat them all, just the ones that are excess. If it generates supply points but no resources - a rare case - the location has no resource centers - but does get supply points. [Mostly that is fishing - where the area produces at least 360 tons per year in excess of local consumption. The only exception that is large is Kodiak.]

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Post #: 36

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/9/2006 6:12:06 PM

Nicholas Bell

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I realise there is an obvious answer to this question which I am not seeing, but why not use "Daily Resources" instead of Resource Devices since the former does not create supply points?

(in reply to el cid again)

Post #: 37

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/9/2006 10:29:05 PM

el cid again

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Ah - the pudding - yes. IF you use daily resources at a point - and we do at the map edge for things NOT in the hex - just arriving there -

a) Bombers cannot bomb them
b) Engineers cannot demolition them when the enemy is taking the hex
c) Artillery cannot damage them

and it is said the ENEMY gets to have them (undamaged remember) if he captures the hex.

This makes it wrong to use this field most places. We do use it at supply sources like Aden and United States, etc.

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Post #: 38

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/10/2006 5:58:03 AM

Bombur

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A question about rules:

Reading the manual, I concluded that each HI center spends 3 oil/day (2 to generate 1 HI and 1 to generate supply/fuel). Andrew Brown and Nik seem to disagree from me, they say that only 1 oil is necessary. It�s seems that el cid again makes his calculations based on 3 oil/HI. What view is correct?

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Post #: 39

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/10/2006 6:45:16 AM

RETIRED

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quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

Continuing,

One might compare the USN and US Army to the Japanese services - at times. Somewhere there is a book on the subject - but I forget its name.
If it is true the Japanese services failed to cooperate well much of the time, to say that and stop talking is grossly incomplete. In Japan's most effective campaign (Malaya) the services cooeprated almost perfectly - partly due to a Japanese navy captain who was army oriented - partly due no doubt to Yamashita's attitude - and partly due to doctrine itself.
Japan's army was required to use naval ships designs, ships with naval crews (I mean ARMY ships), and cooperation for amphibious operations. When did the US Army build and operate it's own Aircraft Carriers and Submarines? It did operate a substantial number of support and merchant ships (especially in the SW Pacific Theatre), but that was simply because it had the manpower the Navy and Merchant Marine were lacking due to other pressures. The IJN and IJA had virtually seperate allocations of the National Shipping means, and refused for much of the war to carry each other's cargos (or anything to help the Civilian Economy) Given Japan's much smaller economic base, and greater dependence of materials from overseas, this was a truely absurd situation their war effort simply couldn't afford.

Similarly, the use of different electrical systems (and you didn't say - but could have and been right - machine guns) on aircraft was a horrible inefficiency. But to stop there is to misrepresent the story. Japan eventualy changed this policy - and you have joint service aircraft operating together with the same aircraft - the same weapons - and the same electrical system. [This case is semi-unknown - although almost every book describing the Ki-67 mentions it in brief form. For a long time the effectiveness of the raids on B-29 bases was secret. That the army and navy COULD use the same bases to stage was new and different - and not something people focus on even when they do talk about these attacks - because other aspects of those joint operations are more interesting.] Japan eventually learned from its mistakes, coming up with joint designations for engines and guns, sharing formerly unshared radar sets, etc. And we made many similar mistakes - right down to NEVER getting a theater commander. The Allies had a number of "Theatre Commanders". SWPAC, SOPAC, CENTPAC, CBI. If you mean an "Overall Commander" for the entire Pacific Theatre, it was Roosevelt and the Joint Chiefs who handled that role..., and for a reason. The needs of the Pacific Theatre had to be "balanced" with those of the European Theatre (a problem Japan didn't have.)

There are a few historians beginning to treat WWII history in a more balanced way. The first were Calvororicci et al - a book set (2 vol) with both Italian and British authors - rewritten with more authors addded - attempting an even handed and less propaganda oriented view. Another is the Welsh scholar who wrote Armegeddon - Welsh often are not entirely pro-British because of how they are treated to this day - this book attempts to dispel "the myths, lies and distortions of WWII". Popular history written for various reasons - but proably most of all to make money so it must say what will sell - is not the only kind. Academics eventualy usually get around to trying to understand the whole story - and writing in a later era often allows more objectivity. (I'm not about to submit that the Allies DIDN'T have cooperation problems or rivalries. Take a look at "THE WAR BETWEEN THE GENERALS" for a good example of that kind of thing. Simply that the Japanese, who could afford to squander resources, equipment, production, and effeciency the LEAST of any of the major combatants, had "instatutionalized" a rivalry that squandered a higher percentage of them than anyone else. The US could AFFORD two rival drives across the Pacific, and it kept the Japanese "off balance" trying to guess which would "leap" next. Would a "single thrust" have been more efficient? It's possible..., but by 1944 so much material was headed to the Pacific that it would have been hard to apply it in a single area. The Japanese simply could not afford to be maintaining seperate "Army" and "Navy" economies, and eventually they made some steps towards "cooperation". But far too little, and far too late. They needed to have gotten their "sh-t" "straighened away" back in the 30's to have had the kind of cooperation the game provides. And with both services having domestic "political agendas" as well as military ones this just wasn't in the cards. Not even the Emperor thought he had any chance of forcing better cooperation on the two services.

(in reply to el cid again)

Post #: 40

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/10/2006 1:25:24 PM

el cid again

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bombur

A question about rules:

Reading the manual, I concluded that each HI center spends 3 oil/day (2 to generate 1 HI and 1 to generate supply/fuel). Andrew Brown and Nik seem to disagree from me, they say that only 1 oil is necessary. It�s seems that el cid again makes his calculations based on 3 oil/HI. What view is correct?

First, Cid agrees with Andrew and Nik - and I wonder where you read that? I seem to read 1 in my manual. [The manual sometimes contradicts itself though - and since I hope for a new one I like to document such points].

Second, Cid DID triple the oil - but ONLY because there is not enough oil to run the HI - either Allied or Japanese - and also because there is not enough oil in terms of what is really produced.

Now this latter is in spades: someone cited data from Palembang and compared it to the (increased) values used by RHS. I don't think he considered the data for fuel as well as oil - but he is right. RHS actually UNDERSTATES oil production - also deliveries from the United States and the Mideast - for a variety of reasons. It appears we are modeling only part of the economy - Joe coined the phrase "military economy" in a review he and Andrew and I did early in 2006. It also appears that allowing all the production might make it to easy for both sides. RHS is being conservative - and increasing slowly (or in the case of AKs decreasing slowly: AKs are half their CHS number - but we estimate they may need to be 1/4 - we just don't want to kill the economy by going too far- we are demonstrating 1/2 is not too big a cut). IF we find (say from HI construction) that added production is needed - we have the option of still further increases.

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Post #: 41

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/10/2006 1:34:19 PM

el cid again

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Retired:

There is a wonderful book US Army Ships and Watercraft of the Second World War (or World War II). It lists the 12,000 named ships - and describes the 80,000 watercraft - of the US Army in that conflict - numbers which dwarfed the USN (but which are also given in the introduction). Just FYI - the US Army didn't exactly operate submarines and aircraft carriers - but it did operate minesweepers. And IJA instigated something similar to the LSD (if it is an LSD without a dock - their system was to roll down ramps into the stern gate) and the LSM (again if it is an LSM - it isn't exactly our concept). It is not particularly clear that Army funded, Navy designed and crewed ships were a bad idea - and it may imply considerable cooperation.

Nor to I disagree that the divide was vast. My favorite destroyer captain (Takishi Hara) never counts losses of Army ships when he is a witness - he only tells us about Navy losses! But see The War Between the Generals for almost horrifying stories on our side of the same sort. Study the Alaska campaign - or the personal relations between Adm Hart and Gen MacArthur - before you say we got it right. We never did reconcile Nimitz and Mac into a unified command. The truth is not that we got it right and Japan got it wrong. We both got it wrong - to a degree - and got it right - to a degree. It depends where you look - and it depends when you look. By the end both of us were doing a lot more cooperation than we started with. And even at the start there were instances of effective cooperation - including those ships mentioned above.

(in reply to el cid again)

Post #: 42

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/10/2006 1:38:24 PM

el cid again

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Retired: You seem to think there was no need for a PTO commander similar to Supreme Allied Commander Europe. You are the very first person I have ever heard suggest this was a reasonable way to organize. And your stated reason - the need to balance between theaters - should imply you agree with a unified command - so I do not follow your thinking. If you get into the details, Mac and Nimitz had very different ideas about what to do - and we seem to have tried to do both at once -
which was probably inefficient and surely led to furious allocation issues.

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Post #: 43

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/10/2006 1:39:59 PM

Bombur

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quote:

First, Cid agrees with Andrew and Nik - and I wonder where you read that? I seem to read 1 in my manual. [The manual sometimes contradicts itself though - and since I hope for a new one I like to document such points].

ebook manual, page 182

quote:

Second, Cid DID triple the oil - but ONLY because there is not enough oil to run the HI - either Allied or Japanese - and also because there is not enough oil in terms of what is really produced.

-But if oil is spent at one point/day for each HI, then Japan has enough oil to run 16000 HI points, if she captures all historical oil resources, in the stock scenario. Some upward adjustment is necessary, but if you triple oil, then Japan is already self sufficient from start (750x3-2250, which is enough to feed 13500 HI points). On the other hand, it�s possible that oil production for allies should be increased.

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Post #: 44

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/10/2006 1:40:08 PM

el cid again

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RETIRED: We agree that Japan could ill afford institutional rivalry - divided command - and so on. Not sure how you manage to "debate" a point on which we are in total agreement - but it is inspiring!

Apparently you have a problem with the concept that Japan could have done better than it did. In which case I think the assumption behind RHSEOS is not for you. EOS is intended to examine what might have been the case if they did cooperate better? It is an attempt, if you will, to show that you are right - doing what they did hurt them relative to being more sensible.

< Message edited by el cid again -- 8/10/2006 1:50:47 PM >

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Post #: 45

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/10/2006 1:48:16 PM

el cid again

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Actually, oil production is a complicated subject - and it is entirely possible the "quick and dirty" RHS experiment will have to adjust. This happened in a major way once already in fact - when it was found there is indeed not enough oil on the map to run Japanese HI - even if every last oil center were captured and undamaged. Similarly, the Allies could not make their on map economies work without more oil - and oil from the US Gulf Coast, Iran, Iraq, Russia and Canada were made to appear at various map edge points to deal with that. Note that the actually
available is GREATER than RHS says it is - for a variety of reasons.
We must not too greatly overstate the oil in 1942 - or things won't work right. We must not forget the oil associated with resources not in the model either. And as Joe pointed out it is not clear what oil is?
We have oil and fuel and supply points all with some oil in them!
So I don't want to put it all as crude oil. Anyway, I wish to see how it goes in a longer term sense before doing more analysis - comparing games with history.

(in reply to Bombur)

Post #: 46

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/10/2006 2:51:54 PM

RETIRED

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quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

Retired: You seem to think there was no need for a PTO commander similar to Supreme Allied Commander Europe. You are the very first person I have ever heard suggest this was a reasonable way to organize. And your stated reason - the need to balance between theaters - should imply you agree with a unified command - so I do not follow your thinking. If you get into the details, Mac and Nimitz had very different ideas about what to do - and we seem to have tried to do both at once -
which was probably inefficient and surely led to furious allocation issues.

There were TWO theatres in Europe, and both were smaller than those in the Pacific. Eisenhower was the Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force in Northwestern Europe. But when he rec ieved that posting, he gave up Command of the Mediteranean Theatre to a Brit. The "supreme" part of his title gave him command control over all the air, sea, and land forces in NW Europe---but he had no command over the 5th Army or the 15th Air Force in the Med.

(in reply to el cid again)

Post #: 47

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/10/2006 3:15:12 PM

RETIRED

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quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

RETIRED: We agree that Japan could ill afford institutional rivalry - divided command - and so on. Not sure how you manage to "debate" a point on which we are in total agreement - but it is inspiring!

Apparently you have a problem with the concept that Japan could have done better than it did. In which case I think the assumption behind RHSEOS is not for you. EOS is intended to examine what might have been the case if they did cooperate better? It is an attempt, if you will, to show that you are right - doing what they did hurt them relative to being more sensible.

Actually my discussion on this subject was brought on by the comment "One might compare the USN and US Army to the Japanese services". Only in the vary broadest sense that there was interservice rivalry over football and budgets. The Allies had the "Combined" and "Joint" Chiefs of Staff to keep the "friction" to a minimum when dissagreements arose. And civilian control of the Production Boards to tell both services what weapons were going to be available, and that as many of the componants of their equipment that could be identical were going to be. In Japan, we have the IJN and IJA acting like totally seperate entities, each having it's own economic "fief" and research programs which competed against each other. Can you imagine the US Navy blatently lying to the Joint Chiefs about the results of Savo Island? Given Japan's already "shoestring" economy such wasteful practices WERE a major factor in her demise (the demise was virtually certain, but the process was speeded up considerably by the Japanese shooting themselves in the foot...., repeatedly)

When I hear someone comparing the relation between the IJN and the IJA with those between the US Army and Navy as though they were by any means "equal", I see red. It's lake saying two farmers have an equal "bug" problem when one has a couple of annoying crickets in the closet. and the other a plague of Locusts! There is no real comparison....

(in reply to el cid again)

Post #: 48

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/13/2006 12:36:59 AM

Nemo121

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Ok well in my current game as Japan I'm paying particular attention to the economic/logistics issues as it seems to me that with the massive reduction in shipping capabilities Japan will not only have problems shipping those resources and oil it captures but will be unable to move more than half of SAA at any one time without calling on all the currently extant AKs. IOW you can have massive invasions and a complete loss of resource and oil deliveries during those invasions or you can have moderate-sized invasions and keep your economy running long-term. Gamble on the moderate-sized invasion winning big or gamble that the loss of 2 or 3 months worth of oil and resource deliveries will be compensated for by your wins...

Anyways the main question I have is that after counting up all of the oil in the DEI/Malaysia/Burma area it looks like there's a good 7,000 oil points to be captured. Admittedly none of them are likely to be at more than 33% capacity given the steps RHS has taken to ensure masses of engineers at each of the critical oil centres but even then we're talking about 2,300 oil being added to Japan's starting total of 1900 oil for a total of 4,200 oil, or enough to run a war economy of 25,200. Admittedly the main problem is going to be shipping that oil but if you are willing to expand the HI in Singapore, Bangkok, Soerabaja, Manilla etc massively then you can make up for a shortage of hulls by consumin much more of that oil at or right beside the centres of production cutting both journey times and total amount of oil to be transported (thus allowing your current shipping to "stretch" much farther.

So,are you sure the number of oil centres is correct? I know you've done a lot of research on this but I figure I should ask before Allied players start going apes**t about Japanese production figures...

(in reply to RETIRED)

Post #: 49

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/13/2006 12:57:31 AM

el cid again

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I didn't know that Retired - my father served in the USAAF in the Med and was under Ike's command. But if you are correct, there was a change in that situation later. My father was one of 80 USAAF NCOs hastily transferred to CONUS after writing to the JAG of the Army - about the fate of German POWs from Yugoslavia (who were flown out by US bombers after being snatched by a "trapeeze" and cranked into the bomb bay). Seems every one ended up in the graveyard - a violation of US law - and the enlisted men (but interestingly not the officers) had problems with that. The most memorable line in the complaint was "We are willing to fight the Nazies. We are not willing to behave like them."

(in reply to RETIRED)

Post #: 50

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/13/2006 1:03:03 AM

el cid again

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Retired, we simply do not agree about interservice rivalries on both sides. I see the existence of three different shipping allocation boards on BOTH sides as symptomatic of the same inability to coordinate properly (army, navy and civil). I do not see the IJN lieing to the Imperial High Command about the outcome of Midway either. It was IHC that decided not to admit the truth in public. And the US did the something similar in the Aleutians. [US soliders returning home were not believed when the reported fighting the Japanese on US soil - "its not in the papers nor on the news" people said.] If you look at the things said to staff (at least MacArthur's staff - where I have a personal window) - and the attitudes of people like Adm Hart and Gen Mac about each other (they could NEVER dine because each regarded himself as senior to the other - and had to sit at the "head" of the table) - I see almost mirror images of bad additudes on the other side.

And the thesis that everything on the Japanese side was done wrong makes me see red: it is plain false. See Tsuji (an Army officer regarded as a fanatic and hothead - on the IJN captain assigned to Yamashita for Malaya - or on Adm Yamamoto when he went to visit him re Guadalcanal). Clearly even the radical hotheads could get along across the lines, and effective cooperation resulted IRL. The bag was very mixed - and mixed on both sides. It was not in the least limited to football on our side.

< Message edited by el cid again -- 8/13/2006 1:10:30 AM >

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Post #: 51

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/13/2006 1:07:55 AM

el cid again

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Ok well in my current game as Japan I'm paying particular attention to the economic/logistics issues as it seems to me that with the massive reduction in shipping capabilities Japan will not only have problems shipping those resources and oil it captures but will be unable to move more than half of SAA at any one time without calling on all the currently extant AKs. IOW you can have massive invasions and a complete loss of resource and oil deliveries during those invasions or you can have moderate-sized invasions and keep your economy running long-term. Gamble on the moderate-sized invasion winning big or gamble that the loss of 2 or 3 months worth of oil and resource deliveries will be compensated for by your wins...

Anyways the main question I have is that after counting up all of the oil in the DEI/Malaysia/Burma area it looks like there's a good 7,000 oil points to be captured. Admittedly none of them are likely to be at more than 33% capacity given the steps RHS has taken to ensure masses of engineers at each of the critical oil centres but even then we're talking about 2,300 oil being added to Japan's starting total of 1900 oil for a total of 4,200 oil, or enough to run a war economy of 25,200. Admittedly the main problem is going to be shipping that oil but if you are willing to expand the HI in Singapore, Bangkok, Soerabaja, Manilla�etc massively then you can make up for a shortage of hulls by consumin much more of that oil at or right beside the centres of production cutting�both journey times and total amount of oil to be�transported (thus allowing your current shipping to "stretch" much farther.

So,are you sure the number of oil centres is correct? I know you've done a lot of research on this but I figure I should ask before Allied players start going apes**t about Japanese production figures...

The historical situation was that there was "more than enough oil to meet the needs of the empire." In fact, only a fraction will be produced, and only a fraction of that will be moved. It seems to me we need to insure that there is sufficient oil and resources that the original situation is duplicated: the Japanese have choices about what to capture and what to ship? Actually, the number of oil centers is wrong! As one poster observed for Palembang, it is too low. But I calculate in the fuel production as well as the oil production (oil centers make both) - and am being conservative about production because I think some of it is not associated with the modeled "war economy."

(in reply to Nemo121)

Post #: 52

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/13/2006 3:28:36 AM

Nemo121

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Ok El Cid,
That's pretty much what I had expected... For the first time ever in WiTP I'm actually bothered about and expanding my merchant fleet production in order to get more AKs ;).

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Post #: 53

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/13/2006 4:47:29 AM

RETIRED

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quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

I didn't know that Retired - my father served in the USAAF in the Med and was under Ike's command. But if you are correct, there was a change in that situation later. My father was one of 80 USAAF NCOs hastily transferred to CONUS after writing to the JAG of the Army - about the fate of German POWs from Yugoslavia (who were flown out by US bombers after being snatched by a "trapeeze" and cranked into the bomb bay). Seems every one ended up in the graveyard - a violation of US law - and the enlisted men (but interestingly not the officers) had problems with that. The most memorable line in the complaint was "We are willing to fight the Nazies. We are not willing to behave like them."

Ike left the Med approximately January 1st, 1944 to take command of "Overlord" and the "ETO". The "MTO" which he had commanded, then went to a Brit (I think it was Harold Alexander). Interesting...., My Dad was an NCO with the 8th Air Force in England throughout the War.

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Post #: 54

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/13/2006 5:03:20 AM

RETIRED

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quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again
And the thesis that everything on the Japanese side was done wrong makes me see red: it is plain false. See Tsuji (an Army officer regarded as a fanatic and hothead - on the IJN captain assigned to Yamashita for Malaya - or on Adm Yamamoto when he went to visit him re Guadalcanal). Clearly even the radical hotheads could get along across the lines, and effective cooperation resulted IRL. The bag was very mixed - and mixed on both sides. It was not in the least limited to football on our side.

CID. Just where did I say that "everything on the Japanese side was done wrong"? I said that the Japanese, with a far greater need to do everything right, shot themselves in the foot repeatedly. From simple things like the failure to "standardize" as many A/C parts as was possible, to the IJA and IJN refusing to carry each other's cargos in their merchant ships. Sure I'll grant you that MacArthur was a first-class **** who's staff was more of a "court" than a military entity. But he still had to seek permission and approval from the Joint Chiefs for his Campaigns, as did Nimitz.

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Post #: 55

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/13/2006 12:26:37 PM

Nemo121

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I think you are both actually operating at pretty much the same conclusion but are talking a bit past eachother.

I'm sure you could both agree that Japan, having a smaller industrial base to begin with and a very tight cargo capacity situation needed to do everything possible to maximise efficiency in both its delivery of resources to Japan and delivery of supplies, men and materiel to the front lines. It manifestly failed to do so and so operated its armed forces at less than maximal efficiency for a very substantial period of the war. When it began to make the requisite changes it was too late.

The allies who had many of the same problems with inter-service rivalries were able, for the most part, to overcome them by sheer weight of men and materiel. When you need 200 bombers to raid a given enemy base to achieve decisive results and the army has 300 bombers available and the navy has 300 available you can afford to co-ordinate poorly and still be effective. When you can muster only 210 bombers with maximal co-operation any lack of co-operation is disastrous.

So the Japanese didn't do everything wrong they just had less "largesse" to waste with inefficiencies and rivalries before this waste fatally impacted their operations. As such given the same relative rivalries and inefficiencies the Japanese were effected much more than the Allies and so many are more aware of these issues in Japanese services than in Allied services ( even though they may have been present to the exact same extent... but not had the same impact).

Reading what you've both said I'm sure you could both sign up to the above, no?

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Post #: 56

RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/13/2006 1:44:35 PM

el cid again

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Retired, I guess my problem is that you say the Japanese failed to standardize - period. That is technically false. Any exception makes a statement false. And Japan did standardize - just too late to be decisive. Similarly in other matters, you say something negative and stop talking - and that is misleading and actually false. The bag was mixed. On oour side sometimes you say we got it right - and stop. Other times you admit problems - in fact this is your normal case - and we agree. I note that you still dispute the divided command thing for PTO though - and even if Ike lost unified command after a certain point - it does not change the fact SACEUR was once unified - and was once the proper way to do a theater. We never came close in PTO - and ran separate offensives right up until Okinawa - offensives based on very different stratetic concepts of how to prosecute the war. Similarly, we may have had an effective submarine and mine blockade - particularly when heavy bombers were used - but ultimately the heavy bomers were forced to stop laying mines - not because they were not working - but because it was not politicaly correct in the USAAF. USSBS concluded that no invasion was required t odefeat Japan by 1 Nov 1945 - nor an atom bombing - and yet this was not in the sitreps given the JCS in spring 1945. We did know the impact of the shipping losses - and both Gen Marshall and FDR feared the human cost of an invasion - yet the idea of not invading and not using atom bombs was not on the table. A unified strategy that was also realistic in terms of our own concepts never was really achieved. [I used to have a neighbor who worked on USSBS as a USN Captain - he retired an admiral - and so this was something of a joint stucy. One historian I know says it came to the right conclusions, though one may dispute how it reached them as less than the best methodology.]

I regard this exchange as academic: I think we both agree that the US did somewhat better than Japan did in respect to joint staffing, joint planning, standardization, etc. But I do find many things Japan did quite mirror images of what we did - and often in direct contriadictoin of what you can read in quite reputable books. [Japan "never converted its auto industry to aircraft production" when, in fact, it did that too much! Stuff like that. Japan DID come up with standarized and interchangeable engines, weapons, etc - although many say it didn't. it even had standardized merchant ships and escorts IN PRODUCTION BEFORE the war began.

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RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/13/2006 3:28:02 PM

RETIRED

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"Retired, I guess my problem is that you say the Japanese failed to standardize - period."

Actually, I didn't say that either. And you and Nemo are both right in that it is an arguement of scale and institutionalization, not that one side had problems and the other didn't. The IJN and IJA had instatutionalized and politicized their differences during the 1920's and 30's to the point where when it came time to actually go to war there were many elements in the planning that were more on the order of negotiations between to distrustful "allies" than joint military planning. Where both groups could see an immediate advantage to the goals, they cooperated reasonably well - though even in the push to occupy the SRA the IJA put pretty strict limits on what it was willing to commit. Outside of that, the IJN got the "South Seas Detachment" (1 regiment - taken from the forces earmarked for the SRA) to help occupy the remainder of the Pacific. And you're right, eventually standardization was forced on the two services by the stress of the war - but not until the situation was already going from serious to hopeless. On the US side it was more a matter of "personalities and politics". The Navy saw the Pacific as "their" theatre (as Europe was the Army's) - but both needed considerable resources from the other and had to endure many "compromises" by the Joint Chiefs. The Army Air Corps, struggling to become the US Air Force, saw bombing Japan as the last chance to "prove" that it's doctrine of "strategic bombardment" could be decisive.

Now Ernie King disliked cooperating with the Army almost as much as he detested working with the British; Curtis LeMay didn't want anything to get in the way of his campaign to burn Japan to the ground; and Doug MacArthur thought he was God. All of which created "friction" between the services, and lots of excitement in the newspapers. But the US Army, Navy, and Air Corps COULDN'T just "go thieir own ways" because at the top the doctrine of "Civilian Control" remained intact and formidible. Compromise had to be achieved, standardization was the "order of the day", and "cooperation" was going to be shoved down your successor's throat if you got too far out of line. This was what Japan lacked. The military was for all practical purposes the Government of the nation from the mid-1930's on, and civilian oversight a joke (approve our program or some young officers might decapitate you). The "degree" of instatutionalized non-cooperation between the IJA and the IJN was much higher than among the Allies, and there was no power that could nay-say them (even the Emperor feared for his life).

So the side that could afford it the least suffered from it the most, and until the war turned decisively against them, didn't even see a reason to change. And by then it was too late. They could "force" greater fighter and trainer production out of the system at the cost of production of heavier aircraft and some loss of quality control - and they could force greater pilot production from the system by cutting qualifications and training hours and quality. What they couldn't do, even with the advantage of interior lines of communication, is make up for the fact that they had finally taken these steps 2-3 years after their opponants. They were already on the "slippery slope" of defeat when they finally made them.

Without the short-sighted and introverted policies of the Japanese Militarists controlling the Govenrment, Japan would probably have never gone to war. And because of it, they had little chance of winning the war. The US military may have had a lot to learn, and a number of misconceptions to get rid of...., but nowhere on the Axis Side do you find anything like the US Army's Industrial College. America invented "mass production", and the military had seen how it could be mis-used during the First World War. And the under-budgeted Services of the 20's and 30's took steps to insure that if the need ever arose again, and the budgets grew, the US Military and American Industry were going to move "hand in hand" towards winning it. The American Government, Military, and Industry THOUGHT BIG from the very beginning in terms that no other power could think (though the USSR came close due to it's peculiar necessities). The Axis Powers all though "small and limited" at war's outbreak. That was the system they were used to dealing with. By the time they realized what was happening and tried to expand, it was too little and too late.

I've always wanted to do a scenario where the Japanese Civilian Government, Military, and Industrialists made a conscious decision in 1936 that war was going to be inevitable. And began a sensable, realistic, and believable program to prepare for it. There is still only so much that could be done given the Japanese Industrial base, but A/C rationalization and a more sensible pilot training program are certainly among things that could have been instituted. Reasonable ASW and Convoy preparations (who knew US torpedoes were defective?) would certainly have occured to anyone examining Japan's need to import virtually everything. Maybe the IJA could even adopt and supply a reliable MG to it's troops. Overall the result would be a Japan that could "stay in the running" over a longer period in a war..., which might give the stratagy of "wearing down Allied resolve" a chance to work in spite of a "Pearl Harbor" to incite it. Of course, my scenario wouldn't include the Japanese aquisition of anyone else's fleet, or building all the BB's scrapped by Washington "in secret", or anything much of the "wild and wooley" so beloved to some of our modders. And Japan's industrial base would still be limited in relation to her opponants. She would simply make better and more rational use of it longer. Probably no one would even play it.

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RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/14/2006 3:08:09 AM

el cid again

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You write well Retired. I particularly like your descriptions of the commander's personalities. I also have to revise upward substantially the degree to which we agree on things.

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RE: Houston, we have an (economic) problem - 8/14/2006 3:20:35 AM

el cid again

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Your scenario proposal is very similar to RHSEOS - but goes one step farther:

EOS assumes that only the decision for war (July 1941) forces a planning regime on the Japanese. It is modeled on a real organization, led by Col Tsuji, which did the planning for Malaya - using some information from civil and naval sources. The EOS scenario thus forces Japan to start with considerable inefficiencies - particularly in terms of aircraft - and only STARTS to rationalize these about the time the war begins. Your scenario would allow much better integration in that regard: JAAF could be using the Zero as an escort fighter for example - and Ki-27 production could be curtailed considerably.

Now there WERE plans for escort production - also for a mass produced medium submarine (only two prototypes were built). RHS elects to produce the modified version - with oxygen torpedoes - but your scenario would allow production of the earlier version in numbers - without them. These were fine, maneuverable boats, and might matter - and be a better buy than numbers of big ones.

I personally like the idea of not using all the "ships that never were" - or of using the truly obscure ones that might have mattered (like second class escorts). This would have to be something like a "super Japan enhansed scenario" because Japan would be even more powerful - since being efficient early might matter a good deal.

The problem - of course - is how to end the war? Once begun war's take on a life of their own - and the US alone should usually defeat Japan. But Japan must face not only the Allies we think of (UK, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand and Canada) but also devote major forces to China and the USSR. It remains one of the greatest military problems of all time - to take on such a full plate - and it is not likely a wise thing to bet on winning most of the time!

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