Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: golden deliciousLow altitude AA can still impact high altitude planes. I tested it.

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ORIGINAL: Anthropoid

I'd like to play a strategic simulation of the Cold War using a game engine that combines the best of both TOAW III and say Civilization 3 Conquests, a turn-based strategy in which you control the cultural, domestic, and political factors involved as well as military.

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ORIGINAL: golden deliciousI could see Paradox coming up with a game like that.

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Because of Nagasaki's hilly terrain, the damage was somewhat less extensive than that in relatively flat Hiroshima. An estimated 40,000 people were killed outright by the bombing at Nagasaki, and about 25,000 were injured

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According to most estimates, about 70,000 of Nagasaki's 240,000 residents were killed instantly,[6][7] and up to 60,000 were injured. The radius of total destruction was about 1.6 km (1 mile), followed by fires across the northern portion of the city to 3.2 km (2 miles) south of the bomb.[8] The total number of residents killed is believed to be as many as 80,000, including those who died from radiation poisoning in the following months.

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The official yield estimate of "Little Boy" was about 15 kilotons of TNT equivalent in explosive force, i.e. 6.3 × 1013 joules = 63 TJ (terajoules).[1]. However, the damage and the number of victims were much higher, as Hiroshima was on flat terrain, while the hypocenter of Nagasaki lay in a small valley.

Approximately 70,000 people were killed as a direct result of the blast, and a similar number were injured. A great number more would later die as a result of nuclear fallout and cancer.[2]

At 08:15 (Hiroshima time), the Enola Gay dropped the nuclear bomb called "Little Boy" over the center of Hiroshima. It exploded about 600 meters (2,000 feet) above the city with a blast equivalent to about 13 kilotons of TNT (the U-235 weapon was considered very inefficient, with only 1.38% of its material fissioning),[10] instantly killing an estimated 70,000–80,000 people. . . . . The radius of total destruction was about 1.6 km (1 mile), with resulting fires across 11.4 square km (4.4 square miles).[13] Infrastructure damage was estimated at 90% of Hiroshima's buildings being either damaged or completely destroyed.

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ORIGINAL: Anthropoid

Hmmm. Never heard of them. Will have to check them out.

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So in short, a 14km tile has been hit with a total of 4,400 kilotons of nuke warheads, which has killed about half of a division comprising about 15,000 guys and 1,498 vehicles, including trucks, and other non NBC vehicles as well as Tanks which are not going to be equipped to carry much more than their crews.

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Because of Nagasaki's hilly terrain, the damage was somewhat less extensive than that in relatively flat Hiroshima. An estimated 40,000 people were killed outright by the bombing at Nagasaki, and about 25,000 were injured

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12 warheads X 3.2 km = 38.4km diameter area of full blast effects.

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Assuming perfect cooperation and coordination, and none of the pilots had to drop their payloads off target because of avoiding SSMs

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ORIGINAL: Anthropoid

...
So I hit a 14km hex with at least 12 different warheads which are all at least 10 times more powerful than Fat Man (minimum was 200 kilotons for any single unit's attack value). Even assuming some sort of diminishing volume for kilotonage at 200 kilotons, and roughly 1 mile radius of destruction for Fat Man and Little Boy at 20 and 13 kilotons, I would think a 200 kiloton bomb would obliterate at least a 1.5 km radius, i.e., a 3.2km diameter?

12 warheads X 3.2 km = 38.4km diameter area of full blast effects. Assuming perfect cooperation and coordination, and none of the pilots had to drop their payloads off target because of avoiding SSMs (there was zero Soviet air superiority to respond at this point), this means that the ENTIRE hex should have been engulfed in a fireball, and I'm supposed to believe that roughly half of this Soviet division is going to be able to survive this because they have some "NBC-fitted" metal cars to sit tight in!?! It beggars the imagination!

Can anyone who actually knows about this stuff account for whether this is realistic or not?

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12 warheads X 3.2 km = 38.4km diameter area of full blast effects.

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ORIGINAL: sstevens06
Thank you for sharing this. I assume you're playing TOAW3 (with Ralph's correction of the nuclear attack bug).

These seem like reasonable results.

You are more or less correct about the effects radii of a 200kT nuclear weapon (though there's a big difference between air- and ground-burst delivery). This calculation, however, is suspect:

12 warheads X 3.2 km = 38.4km diameter area of full blast effects.

Your calculation assumes a regular pattern of nuclear attacks across a given amount of terrain. I have doubts things would be so neat and tidy in a real nuclear attack...

A couple of things to remember:

- Hiroshima & Nagasaki were large, static targets, full of civilians with no protective equipment or training.

- Your targets were Cold War-era Soviet heavy forces, on the move. The Soviet Army of this period was extensively equipped and trained for nuclear warfighting. By 1979 most of their AFVs had NBC protection. In action during a ground invasion of West Germany, these forces would have been moving fast, making maximum use of cover and concealment, using camoflage and diversionary operations to mislead NATO targeteers, etc.

All in all, these results seem consistent with my understanding of likely outcomes of nuclear attacks on Cold War-era forces.

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A primary form of energy from a nuclear explosion is thermal radiation. Initially, most of this energy goes into heating the bomb materials and the air in the vicinity of the blast. Temperatures of a nuclear explosion reach those in the interior of the sun, about 100,000,000° Celsius, and produce a brilliant fireball.

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After 10 seconds, when the fireball of a 1-megaton nuclear weapon has attained its maximum size (5,700 feet across), the shock front is some 3 miles farther ahead. At 50 seconds after the explosion, when the fireball is no longer visible, the blast wave has traveled about 12 miles. It is then traveling at about 784 miles per hour, which is slightly faster than the speed of sound at sea level.

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The fireball radius is 439 feet. Radius of fireball when the shock front breaks away 424 feet. As shock front breaks away a second thermal pulse begins. Distance to 1 psi overpressure (moderate structural damage) 7.32miles. Distance to second degree burns to exposed skin 2.07miles

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ORIGINAL: Anthropoid

So what would you expect the casualty rate to be for troops inside top-notch NBC protected vehicles within this inner radius of destruction? 2%, 5%, 10% or higher? Even if they survive, would their vehicles be operable, and would they be battle ready?

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Hmmm, not nearly as much as I had thought. I reckon the temperature is still quite hot for some distance out from the fireball radius, but it probably drops exponentially, and NBC protection is probably much more protective outside the fireball. Even being a few hundred feet outside the fireball radius probably raises survivability well above 50% for troops in NBC vehicles I would think. Thus, that 1 mile radius in which pretty much everything was destroyed in civilian Hiroshima and Nagasaki might have resulted in a net Cold War Era Soviet NBC-equpped personnel survival rate of at least 50%, eh?

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In the first wave of SSM attacks I sent 800 kilotons. There were a total of 4 SSM units (200 kilotons per unit). In the second wave there were 8 air units (200 to 400 kilotons per unit) that delivered a total of 3,600 kilotons. An SSM unit comprises in actuality 9 Pershing I launchers, each of which seems to have 1 missile.

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Hmm, maybe 43% casualties IS reasonable for 36 warheads delivering 800 kilotons to 15,000 troops and 1,500 vehicles in a 14km diameter hex.

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ORIGINAL: golden delicious This latter consideration is taken care of by the considerable drop in readiness the unit will suffer.

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Yeah. Bear in mind also that some 'lost' equipment only goes to replacements.

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There we go. Always good when someone can argue themselves to a standstill without the need for outside intervention.

It really is remarkable how survivable troops can be on the nuclear battlefield. Of course, 43% casualties can really ruin your day- especially when combined with a drop in readiness and the appearance of contaminated hexes. I think TOAW does a decent job of making the nuclear battlefield survivable but very difficult to fight in.

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ORIGINAL: Anthropoid

Some of it actually gets destroyed right? But in the event a hex is still ni supply, some of it is "disabled" removed to the rear and goes to replacements.

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This actually raises another question for me: A hex that is out of supply, not because it is surrounded by immediately adjacent enemies, but simply because supply routes have been cut off. In such an instance, losses will NOT go to replacements right?

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Nukes have this reputation for being doomsday devices, and when used on densely populated civilian areas by surprise, I guess maybe they are.

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ORIGINAL: sstevens06

Now to get even more realistic, selectable air- or ground-bursts for nuclear attacks would be a very nice enhancement.

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Finally, what would a late Cold War simulation be without Enhanced Radiation (aka Neutron) weapons? Specifically designed to kill with "prompt" radiation (X-rays IIRC) while minimizing all other nuclear weapons effects (heat, blast, and fallout), ER weapons generally had very low yields such as 1kT. But they had the potential of being really effective battlefield weapons, their extremely high initial burst of radiation capable of defeating most known Soviet and NATO NBC protective suites.