wneumann
Posts: 3768
Joined: 11/1/2005
From: just beyond the outskirts of Margaritaville
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For what they're worth, additional thoughts:
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1. You have all kinds of troops available in CenPac and NoPac, going by the roster you posted. Start planning how to get them to the main staging point or points. Do it quietly, of course!
Starting to move them should not be a great problem. Despite the transport and landing craft losses at Pago Pago, there's still enough Allied shipping in the Pacific theatres to pick up and move troops and cargo. Just a matter of getting transports to where they're needed when they're needed. For security purposes, I intend to route transport convoys well to the rear or at least far enough back where there's little or no possibility of Japanese detection in any form.
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2. The success of an operation like this depends upon surprise and the enemy being unprepared. You should carefully monitor and record SigInt sightings of troops on Hokkaido, Kuriles, Sikhalin Island, and (if he holds any) the Aleutians. If he's clearly prepared or clearly expecting an attack, you may have to scrap the plan. Have a backup, because you'll want to strike somewhere else (in that event, something's tipped his hand and you can continue to give the appearance that you're coming when in fact you're looking somewhere else, maybe far far away).!
I've been keeping detailed information (spreadsheet) of the full roster of known Japanese LCU's going back to 12/41, this list including identities of units, their last known location, and the date (game turn) when they were known to be there. Information for this list was obtained mainly from Sigint, also from ground combat and ground attack air strike AAR's. Making a long story short... if I saw it, it's on the record.
Another practice I've done mainly in Burma, NW Australia and China is launching small ground attack air strikes on detected Jap LCU's within range of Allied planes that are seen moving (along rail lines, etc) between their bases. Not so much for a few Jap casualties, it's the intel value. Anything that get hit goes into the list. Recent larger scale low-level ground attack strikes into Jap bases in NW Australia and interior areas of Burma also do the job - getting more Jap LCU information, plus these strikes actually inflict Jap casualties.
My estimate is at any given time my Jap LCU "listing" is 95%+ complete and 80% or so accurate. Accuracy of the known location for a Jap LCU can be readily gauged by how "old" the information is, also how many times this LCU has been sighted in the same location.
From my Jap LCU list it is easily concluded that Pillager has stripped garrisons in Manchuria and Korea to the bare minimum (do I wish I had the Russians right now). Most of these troops have reappeared in bases all over the Pacific - their new locations all recorded on the list. The information here very heavily supports your recommendation on not attacking atolls.
Santa has his list (of good and bad Jap LCU's) - now just a matter of time before Christmas.
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3. You can get some useful intel just by the size of the bases. If your opponent is building (or has built) the Sikhalin bases, he may be expecting trouble. But if they're small and from all appearances undefended or lightly defended, your plan should work. Rely upon that info and SigInt; don't begin an obvious buildup or recon flights or send ships that way; don't do ANYTHING that will altert your opponent to your intentions. A small and poorly organized surprise attack against an unprepared enemy can often succeed where a massive, well-prepared invasion against a prepared enemy would fail.
I have monitored Jap base sizes to some extent. Pillager seems to build the ones he's using to their max sizes.
I did look over sizes of the Jap northern bases. Other than a slight adding to the airfield size of Paramushiro, Pillager does not appear to have done much in the way of base construction in this region.
As you probably have seen, I've been launching occasional small 4E bomber raids from Attu against Paramushiro - mainly as nuisance raids. I can continue these raids but will not change their size or composition (maintain same number and types of planes) or the time interval between raids.
Pillager has been sending almost daily recon flights over Attu. I don't see that as a major problem in launching a surprise northern campaign. I will simply not use Attu as a staging point. Kiska is already built up and adjacent islands in the Aleutians to the east of Kiska will work for this. I have a very large base up at Adak - this base has superceded both Anchorage and Dutch Harbor as the primary U.S. base in the North Pacific theatre. All northern HQ's already on Adak, along with quantities of supply, fuel, LBA, and base force LCU's. Adak is already supporting submarine ops.
Ship traffic into the Aleutians has been moving almost entirely due west into the area primarily from Seattle. Also no U.S. warships have been operating in the North Pacific. This appearance can be maintained for the most part with two measures - (1) Movement routes of all U.S. shipping moving into the North Pacific area can be done so they appear to be "coming from Seattle". It may add a extra "dogleg" to my ship movements but if it helps the deception, the better. (2) Limit ship traffic into the North Pacific to transport ships. Keep warships and landing craft out of the North Pacific theatre (or at least far enough to the rear inside this area) until the last possible moment.
I will likely send some U.S. surface ASW into the North Pacific area to deal with Jap subs. ASW operations for me in WitP have been quite successful - Pillager is well aware of my basic doctrine, "see it, whack it, sink it". He hasn't sent Jap subs into Allied controlled sea areas for some time, most of the ones he sent before did not come back once they were detected.
Pago Pago was a nasty lession in not having surprise (though in that situation surprise was impossible) and in not having sufficient force to capture what you are landing on. That's how ten U.S. divisions got marooned. There is quite a bit of material on amphibious ops in the forums and I looked at it - however, direct experience being no substitute for research (though research is useful). I've done very little in the way of amphibious ops in WitP and the mechanics of execution a bit daunting even with all the research.
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4. You need surprise and you need to move quickly. If your opponent is unprepared, I'd have my invasion armada set to hit the beaches by March 1 (or as soon as I can possibly have my troops loaded and the ships sent to the Bering Sea vicinity. It's mid-December, so you might can do it if you hurry.
Completely agree. The only question I'd have on a March timeframe is how dependent for success of the operation will be on arriving U.S. division LCU reinforcements between now and March or April '44. Including U.S. Pacific theatre divisions in the game not stuck on Pago Pago and anticipated arrivals of U.S. divisions in the next 120 game turns (this by early 4/44), I will be back up to a total of ten divisions available by March-April '44. Do also have to keep in account I have a considerable number of RCT's on hand - these are no doubt useful as well. An late March, early April invasion date in the north may be more practical if U.S. LCU's entering as reinforcements are needed.
A point either you or Feinder made earlier... a second attack to divert Pillager's attention, preferably shortly before the attack in the north. A second attack could be decisive.
I'm still assessing what I have on hand in Australia and India, and how much of it can be collected for an invasion of the DEI. Though what is increasingly important is launching an expedition into the DEI, however big or small it might be, and at whatever location it hits. My biggest concern is lack of a British carrier force - wherever these guys go into the DEI, they're doing it with no air cover.
Completing the planned ground attack on Portland Roads accomplishes several things to the overall scheme - (1) it clears the Japs out of NE Australia. (2) it frees up Australian and U.S. ground troops for a DEI offensive. (3) I can throw a few bombers at Port Moresby - not as a serious exercise but to put out some more smoke and mirrors.
An Allied presence will have to be kept in NW Australia, also along the Burma-India frontier. These two areas and what needs to be kept there will have some effect on how much LCU strength will be on hand for a DEI operation.
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5. For whatever reason, a Jap player who isn't expecting a NoPac attack will still have Paramushiro defended. It just seems like an "obvious" target. Don't get bogged down in an opposed landing. If it appears defended, bypass Paramushiro and look instead to Sikhalin (two big bases there), one or two or three or more of the Kuriles (they are likely undefended and of little use to your opponent, but landing there creates a sense of mayhem for the Japs and gives you a little buffer zone to work with). Tiny fragments of an RCT should be sufficient to take undefended Kuriles. In the Mod I play Onnekotan Jima is also a good target as it can be built up to rival Paramushiro. If not already held, the western Aleutians bases are important too. If already held, don't start building them yet, but build quickly as soon as D-Day begins.
All western Aleutian bases are in Allied control. Many of them already built up and garrisoned some time ago - Pillager is likely aware of this. Stockpiling of troops, supply, and LCU's in the Aleutians still has to be done carefully but a built-up, garrisoned island in the western Aleutians should not be a big surprise to Pillager as long as things are carried out slowly and carefully. Movement of U.S. ships entering the Aleutians (particularly the western Aleutians) will need to done carefully. Ships cannot remain or be based there, until the final moments before a northern attack begins, they will have to enter the area, unload, and leave.
Movement of TF's in a northern invasion force will likely have all landing TF's (regardless of destination) initially moving together as a stack, topped off with CVE's, shore bombardment, and the main Carrier force. At some point (probably near Paramushiro), the various invasion TF's will disperse from the stack to complete final approach to their destinations. Though Pillager has seen me perform this maneuver - both Pago Pago landing operations, I also use it with submarine patrol TF's where I'm sending multiple subs together into the same general area.
I would see advantages of this mode of ship movement as obscuring the actual number and composition of ships (the stack formation appearing as a pile of TF's), also making it difficult if not impossible to determine how many target(s) of this force and exactly who is going where until the final approach to their objective(s).
As you probably saw, I have lots of RCT's available.
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6. If you are successful, your opponent is in deep do-do. You'll be able to build big bases (two on Sikhalin, and possbily Onnekotan too). Your flank and supply line will be protected by big bases in the western Aleutians. And in short order you'll have big air bases operational just as B-29s become available to the Allies. Of course, bring engineers and sufficient supplies (500k is my guesstimate) to allow you to get things up and running quickly and then operate until you get supply convoys working.
Agree, and can discuss this further.
I'm working on an inventory of U.S. bomber squadrons/groups already in the game to identify those that upgrade to B-29's. So far, two are based in Australia (Melbourne, both these evacuated from the Philippines and now with B-17D's), a third squadron enroute to Australia now with B-18's, another squadron on Johnston Is, and one or two more still in the U.S. A priority may to collect them in a central location for upgrading as soon as sufficient B-29's appear in the replacement pools and deployment immediately thereafter.
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7. A massive strike like this is going to panic your opponent and he's going to turn all his attention this way. It will create a sudden vaccuum elsewhere on the map. Be prepared to take advantage of that vaccuum by invading other places in SoPac, SWPac, etc. You probably want to adopt the island hopping campaign, avoiding strongly held Jap bases in favor of lightly held bases that can be built up.
Island hopping through Pillager's outer perimeter is going to be difficult, likely even with a diversion and a successful attack in the north. Available U.S. combat LCU's will be in somewhat short supply at least for a time following a northern offensive though reinforcements will mitigate this. The line of major Jap bases forming Pillager's outer perimeter (Wake - Kwajalein - Canton - Pago Pago - Suva - Noumea - Port Moresby) is well-interlocking with few or no good avenues of approach. My best possibilities for island hopping through the outer perimeter would be the Marshalls (if not heavily defended) or Solomons (Pillager appears to be considering this the "rear area" with Noumea and Port Moresby preventing any serious approach).
Island hopping through the eastern DEI and adjacent area could be useful as well. This covers what you mentioned in (8) below and can also isolate Jap positions in Darwin and NW Australia (leaving 30+ Jap LCU's high and dry).
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8. Creating noise elsewhere just PRIOR to your NoPac invasion should also throw the Japs off balance and add to the sense of mayhem. The Brits and Aussies should be prepared to engage in separate or combined invasions that will be a threat to the Japs. The DEI (Timor, Java, Sumatra) are obvious targets. The sudden vaccum effect created by the Sikhalin invasion may benefit you down here. If things get to hot for the main invasion, you may also want to have a separate smaller force set to hit somewhere else - Ambon? Ceram? Some lightly defended but buildable western New Guinea base?
9. Remember to have the Chinese striking to just before all the (*#(@#$& hits the fan to further rattle your opponent.
China is pretty bad news. Chinese LCU's are badly run down, no offensive capability or the supply to support them. The best it appears I can do in China is to defend - keep the Japanese army in China tied down in China. Not much here to help the big picture.
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10. I am not familiar with the particulars of your game, so reject all or parts of my plan if you know there are problems with it. But the point is you should be developing a massive, well-coordinated campaigns that will throw the enemy into confusion and allow you to get big, mutually supporting bases within range of key Japanese targets (Home Islands or the big DEI oil/resource centers).
Keep in touch. If you have any questions or to see a map of something, holler.
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11. In the meantime, keep up appearances at Pago Pago. If you aren't able to get the upper hand before then, the vaccuum effect of Sikhalin invasion ought to allow you to take control here and salvage the situation. You DON'T want to lose ten divisions that are here.
As far as Pago Pago goes, I'm planning whatever ops are needed to get an operational airfield on Pago Pago. Getting U.S. LBA flying out of Pago Pago would be give the Japanese a little bit of a problem, also it convincingly keeps up appearances.
I plan on keeping the main U.S. carrier force in the South Pacific (operating out of Penhryn) until the last possible moment before a northern offensive (I'm anticipating U.S. carriers to be the final component arriving in the Aleutians immediately before the offensive begins). Value of keeping U.S. carriers here is (1) they're needed to provide air cover to transports going to Pago Pago and (2) they keep Pillager's attention rivetted down there, along with the KB.
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12. Don't risk a major carrier defeat before the invasion. You need (and will have) a huge number of carriers by March 1944. You'll really be able to go anywhere you want at least one time (and more than once if you win any ensuing carrier battles).
My carrier doctrine throughout this match has been to engage in carrier vs carrier action only in cases where it is to the U.S. advantage. Hasn't happened yet but it will. I've been patient (three years in real time) and intend to continue doing so. I've been watching for good opportunities to strike or a mistake on Pillager's part - when it happens, then we hit. Carriers are like the queen in a chess game, you have to use it, but you only have one.
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13. If you have carrier superiority or parity, if Sikhalin is essentially undefended or very lightly defended, and if you bring the kitchen sink including supplies, you will win. Your opponent cannot stop you, and thirty days later you'll have two big air bases operational and flying P-38s, Corsairs, B-24s, and B-29s. Your opponent will be doing the shivering. While that's going on right at his doorstep, all other areas suddenly become a backwater (at least until your opponent regains his equilibrium) so that you should be able to advance rather rapidly. Don't waste your time advancing step-by-step on the far reaches of the Jap perimter. Ignore his perimeter and head toward his underbelly, leaving his perimater to become a useless frontier that withers away from irrelevance.
I would estimate carrier parity as of now, especially as no major U.S. or Japanese carriers have been sunk to date. All Allied losses have been CVE's and the British.
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14. Good luck!
Thanks.
< Message edited by wneumann -- 5/22/2009 6:25:06 PM >
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Summary of Operations 12/10/43 - 
Read Nemo's latest AAR to see how it can be done with very little CVs availiable. 
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