Jonathan Palfrey
Posts: 535
Joined: 4/10/2004 From: Sant Pere de Ribes, Spain Status: offline
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There are several things that amaze me on reading about the war. 1. That the CSA managed to make a fight of it for four years despite crippling disadvantages of various kinds, and despite having basically lost the war in the West in the first year. It was an unequal struggle, and in the East it seemed to be prolonged mainly because US forces were poorly led. With equally good generalship on both sides, I doubt that the CSA could have survived as long as four years. 2. That the CSA fought well enough in the East, despite its disadvantages, to bring the USA several times almost to the point of giving up the struggle -- which would have enabled the CSA to survive and win the game. Thus, a simulation that takes into account the quality of the generals on each side should give the CSA a chance of winning. I still think the chance would be less than 50%. After all, in reality it fought well but still lost. 3. That either side thought it was worth so much suffering, death, and destruction merely to decide whether the southern states should have one government or another quite similar government. Admittedly, the two possible governments differed over the issue of slavery; however, had they but known it, the days of slavery were numbered, come what may. An independent CSA could surely have preserved the institution for no more than another generation -- during which fugitive slaves would have leaked constantly into the USA. I can't imagine that the US fugitive slave law would have remained in force. I quote Edward Alexander Porter, from the first chapter of Military Memoirs of a Confederate. The year is 1858: "... we learned that the 'Mormon War' was over. Brigham Young, on seeing the large force prepared to install his rival, Gov. Cumming, had wisely concluded to submit and forego his dream of independence. Perhaps he was the wisest leader of a people seeking freedom, of all his generation. At first, the Mormons deserted their homes, and proposed to burn them and migrate to Mexico. Neither Confederate nor Boer was more devoted to his cause than the Mormons to their own. But Brigham Young knew when the time to surrender had come, and he deserves a monument for knowing it and acting upon the knowledge; even though by doing so he greatly disappointed many young officers, myself amongst them, anxious to see active service." I'm not suggesting simply that the CSA was to blame for not surrendering immediately. That would have been one way to avoid the war; another way would have been for the USA to refrain from military invasion (an extraordinary act for a government supposedly pledged to derive its "just powers from the consent of the governed"). The CSA was, however, unwise to fire the first shots. It could easily have ignored provocations such as Fort Sumter, and should have done so. That incident seems to have been caused by a lack of discipline on both sides.
< Message edited by Jonathan Palfrey -- 11/7/2006 12:44:23 PM >
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