lavisj
Posts: 89
Joined: 10/17/2006
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quote:
ORIGINAL: BallyJ
I continue to be amazed that this great game continues to survive if it is as "BROCKEN" as you say????
Well, the question we should ask ourselve, is why we see so little stuffs in 41?
Because once one look at the math objectively, it seems to me that the chance of Russia stuffing are greater than the chance of Russia surviving AND coming back in force from a 41 Barb.
I would venture three possibilities:
1) The Russian player did not do the math and consider that the chance of stuffing are too low.
2) The Russian player does not want to have to wait until 42 or 43 to fight.
3) Group traditions. Each group of player falls into "standard"practices.
But really when looking at it objectively, Germany is rellying on a good amount of chance to be able to break the pact.
For Germany to be able to launch a 41 Barb it needs to do the following:
1) Abandon all hope of even a limited BoA.
2) Limit his air force by putting on the map all its crappy reserve planes, and only building F2 and L2 (ok the last part is not a big hardhip).
3) Build all its garrison efficient units (MIL, GAR) which of course are not the best suited for a Barb.
4) Bring to the border almost all this units, leaving the garrison of the West almost exclusively to the Italians.
Germany also should be playing with City Base Volunteers which add 7 points of garrison.
And then the following must happen:
1) Germany must take limited losses in Poland and France.
2) Germany must be getting significantly above twice the number of chits then the Russian player (some being hidden and unknown).
So, Germany is rellying on factors that are mostly out of its control (die roll on attacks and air combat in France, chit pulled).
So, if you are playing Germany and the Russian player is a potential "stuffer", what are your choices:
1) You prepare for Babr, evaluate the situation in SO40 and either pursue, if your losses were small and your chits good. But even then you are not certain of the end resul, as you are still relient on the chit draws of ND, JF and MA.
2) You switch to a different strategy. At this point, you have lost the SeaLion option. You have lost the strong BoA option, but you can still go after Gibraltar.
So, what Justin is saying and Hakon too, is that in light of all this, it would seem more reasonable for Germany to start planning on a 41 Med / 42 Barb from the start as this is much more efficient than having to switch mid course.
This does not mean that 41 Barb will not happen. But the Russian player is the one leading the dance in this case. In a 41 Med / 42 Barb, the German is leading the dance.
Is the game broken? I don't know if that qualifies as broken.
Is the stuff a sure thing? No, but it is if the German player follows "historical" german builds (some subs, some troops to help Italyin N.Africa)
Now, of course the rules allow for conditions in which the German player can plan from the start for considerably increase its chances of success in breaking the pact. But those actions must be taken at the very begining:
1) Have IT DoW Lithuania and/Or Hungary.
2) Have IT give its build points to Germany so that Germany can increase its garrison. But IT will have to defend the west with very limited ressources, and I am not sure if the solution would be worse than the problem.
Well, the point of all this. If the Russian and German player both have done the math and a rational analysis of the stuff situation and probabilities, then most if not all game should follow a Med or Sealion strategy.
Jerome
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Printable Version
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 
If you are referring to the the ability of the USSR or Japan to force a mutual peace under certain conditions, then that is part of MWIF (though not coded yet). 
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