hakon
Posts: 298
Joined: 4/15/2005
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Steve
By US entry chits, I assume the ones pulled by Germany and Russia (since you are using an infinite pool).
IF Germany tries to break the garrison, the chits pulled by Germany, and even more so, Russia, is much more important than losses taken in France, Poland, etc.
The marginal cost of 1 garrison point for Germany is 4 build points. This means that the difference between Russia pulling a 0 or a 6 in J/F 41, is equal to a different amount of losses equal to 2*4*6 = 48 build points for Germany. (The 2 because the attacker needs 2:1). This is about twice the typical german losses prior to Barbarossa.
Before M/J 41, Russia pulls 10 chits and Germany pulls 20. The contribution of the chit difference, can be expressed as the following function:
Chit Difference = CD = Sum(german_chits) - 2*Sum(russian chits)
Note that the value of the russian chits are doubled to account for the attacker needing 2:1 to break the pact.
Assuming infinte pools (which is true for MWIF), and somewhat equal stdv of each chit pull (which is close enough) we get the following expression for the standard deviation:
STDV(CD) = SQRT(20*s^2 + 10*(2s)^2) = SQRT(60s^2) which is almost equal to 7.7*s, where s is the stdv of a single chit.
Given that s=1.3, the standard deviation of the chits difference is 7.7*1.3 = 10.1 , or approx 10, or up to a 80bp loss difference, which completely dwarfs the standard deviation of german losses in France.
Still, if Russia waits until S/O, after pulling chits, to decide to actually stuff the border or not, they can reduce this standard deviation to:
STDV(CD_SO41) = SQRT(20*s^2 + 3*(2s)^2) SQRT(32s^2) = 5.6*s = 7.3.
At this time, German losses in France, german builds etc will all largely be known, making it reasonably easy for Russia to estimate Germany's potential garrison in 1941.
Assuming that Russia has an advantage over Germany in all known variables at this point of about 7 points, this would give them roughly an 80% probability of holding the pact. If the advantage is 15 points, the probability is about 95%.
And Russia always have the opportunity to DOW Italy, if they should pull very poorly after S/O. (The Japan option was taken away) This way they gain 4-5 reserves, which when reorganized and put at the border, are worth 8 or 10 CD points. On top of this, they can build mil, which is easily worth another 10 or so points, for a total of up to 20.
So even if the advantage is zero, Russia can get almost a 100% chance to stuff by DOW-ing Italy, which means that taking that 80% risk is not as dangerous as it sounds, if you are willing to sacrifice those 4 US entry chits if you pull poorly.
And if Russia, after seeing their S/O40 chit, decides that they have too poor chits, they can simply fall back during the next 3 turns, which if properly executed means that they will most likely be able to reach a reasonable line it time. They can even start building non-pact-optimizing units at this time, such as anti-tank units and HQ's, and still have them out before Barbarossa starts.
Russia can (and should) keep several chits face down in early 1940, to put pressure on Germany's ability to hold the pact when they are fighting in France. They can choose to have either high or low chits face down. If they are worried about the pact, they could keep their high chits face up, but if they want to break the garrison themselves, or if they they have so high chits that they feel secure, they can show th e low chits only, and hide the high ones.
All-in-all, this gives Russia all the power to control the development of the game, and to decide which games come down to a stuffing contest and what do not. Germany on the other hand, really need to decide in 1939 or early 40 if he wants to do a MED strategy, sealion or eastern strategy, unless he wants to be at a severe disadvantage from the beginning.
So, basically, Zarachus is quite right in his analysis. When playing against players understanding the above, and that are willing to stuff, the only sane thing to do as Germany, is to go west.
I think that this may be a very real threat to the success of MWiF, since other player may react as Zarachus, and simply stop playing the game after being stuffed a couple of times. (I would react simmilarily to him, though luckily, I've usually been playing with players that agree to house rule that Germany can break the pact in 1941, regardless of garrison.)
While many WiF veterans may be used to this mechanic (the ones that could not stand it, have probably left the wif community already), I think many potential new players will react very negatively when encountering this kind of behaviour.
Indeed, this is somthing I've been saying for years.
Cheers
Hakon
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RE: 'stuffing' the border - 
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