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RE: Taking Palembang intact

 
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RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/19/2008 2:15:52 PM   
rominet


Posts: 523
Joined: 10/23/2007
From: Paris
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quote:

ORIGINAL: miller41

in my current PBEM I just took Palambang and the damage to the oil was 1300 out of 1400  (CHS 157)




Ouuuppppps!!
Were there a lot of ennemy enginners??

(in reply to kfmiller41)
Post #: 31
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/19/2008 3:09:07 PM   
Historiker


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Joined: 7/4/2007
From: Deutschland
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So the game is even faster lost...

It's total nonsense that whatever you do, you can only repair one point per turn...


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(in reply to rominet)
Post #: 32
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/19/2008 5:53:32 PM   
Shark7


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From: The Big Nowhere
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Didn't Japan actually have special engineer units during the war just to repair the oil industries in the DEI.  Thought I remember reading that somewhere.

Other things I've noticed.  Against the AI I've tested by attacking, checking results, replaying the turn...then wait a few days and reattack.  I've found in this case that the die roll must be tied to the attacking unit and its current AV, cause without changing the troops you will get the exact same results no matter if you take an undefended base immediately or by waiting.

I took Miri with 97 damage in this test.  Replayed the turn, waited till the next turn, same result.  Replayed again waiting 4 game days, got the same result.

Has anyone else found that to be true, or do I just have an extremely rare case of super bad luck?

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'When in doubt...attack!'

(in reply to Historiker)
Post #: 33
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/19/2008 5:58:04 PM   
rtrapasso


Posts: 22653
Joined: 9/3/2002
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shark7

Didn't Japan actually have special engineer units during the war just to repair the oil industries in the DEI. Thought I remember reading that somewhere.

Other things I've noticed. Against the AI I've tested by attacking, checking results, replaying the turn...then wait a few days and reattack. I've found in this case that the die roll must be tied to the attacking unit and its current AV, cause without changing the troops you will get the exact same results no matter if you take an undefended base immediately or by waiting.

I took Miri with 97 damage in this test. Replayed the turn, waited till the next turn, same result. Replayed again waiting 4 game days, got the same result.

Has anyone else found that to be true, or do I just have an extremely rare case of super bad luck?

Did you reboot your machine between tests? Strange things can happen if you don't...

(in reply to Shark7)
Post #: 34
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/19/2008 6:05:34 PM   
Shark7


Posts: 7937
Joined: 7/24/2007
From: The Big Nowhere
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shark7

Didn't Japan actually have special engineer units during the war just to repair the oil industries in the DEI. Thought I remember reading that somewhere.

Other things I've noticed. Against the AI I've tested by attacking, checking results, replaying the turn...then wait a few days and reattack. I've found in this case that the die roll must be tied to the attacking unit and its current AV, cause without changing the troops you will get the exact same results no matter if you take an undefended base immediately or by waiting.

I took Miri with 97 damage in this test. Replayed the turn, waited till the next turn, same result. Replayed again waiting 4 game days, got the same result.

Has anyone else found that to be true, or do I just have an extremely rare case of super bad luck?

Did you reboot your machine between tests? Strange things can happen if you don't...


Actually no I didn't. Perhaps that explains why it was stuck on giving me the same results?


_____________________________

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'When in doubt...attack!'

(in reply to rtrapasso)
Post #: 35
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/19/2008 6:07:30 PM   
rtrapasso


Posts: 22653
Joined: 9/3/2002
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shark7


quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shark7

Didn't Japan actually have special engineer units during the war just to repair the oil industries in the DEI. Thought I remember reading that somewhere.

Other things I've noticed. Against the AI I've tested by attacking, checking results, replaying the turn...then wait a few days and reattack. I've found in this case that the die roll must be tied to the attacking unit and its current AV, cause without changing the troops you will get the exact same results no matter if you take an undefended base immediately or by waiting.

I took Miri with 97 damage in this test. Replayed the turn, waited till the next turn, same result. Replayed again waiting 4 game days, got the same result.

Has anyone else found that to be true, or do I just have an extremely rare case of super bad luck?

Did you reboot your machine between tests? Strange things can happen if you don't...


Actually no I didn't. Perhaps that explains why it was stuck on giving me the same results?


Maybe - as i said, strange things can happen...

(in reply to Shark7)
Post #: 36
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/20/2008 12:13:17 AM   
rominet


Posts: 523
Joined: 10/23/2007
From: Paris
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shark7


quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Did you reboot your machine between tests? Strange things can happen if you don't...


Actually no I didn't. Perhaps that explains why it was stuck on giving me the same results?


Maybe - as i said, strange things can happen...


Yes, when you load a save, let play the computer (combat), quit, reload, let play the computer
(combat), quit, reload again ... and so on, it always gives the same results;
i made the tests; and it is absolutely normal because as japanese player, i could be tempted to use this procedure until i have a good combat turn (favorable) to me;
it would be stupid

quote:

ORIGINAL: Historiker
It's total nonsense that whatever you do, you can only repair one point per turn...


I completely agree with that; it is completely nonhistoric;
during war, the Palembang's oil field were severely damaged due to allied withdraw;
but the japanese repaired them quickly;
Transporting oil to Japan is an other history!!





(in reply to rtrapasso)
Post #: 37
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/20/2008 12:48:35 AM   
rtrapasso


Posts: 22653
Joined: 9/3/2002
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rominet


quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shark7


quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Did you reboot your machine between tests? Strange things can happen if you don't...


Actually no I didn't. Perhaps that explains why it was stuck on giving me the same results?


Maybe - as i said, strange things can happen...


Yes, when you load a save, let play the computer (combat), quit, reload, let play the computer
(combat), quit, reload again ... and so on, it always gives the same results;
i made the tests; and it is absolutely normal because as japanese player, i could be tempted to use this procedure until i have a good combat turn (favorable) to me;
it would be stupid



Depending on your computer, quitting and reloading might be enough... but i know with my computer (and, from what i've seen many other machines) you actually have to REBOOT... stuff stays in memory that can effect the results of the game... i've done extensive experimentation, and reboot is the only way i can make sure about getting the correct (i.e. - reproducible) results.


(in reply to rominet)
Post #: 38
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/20/2008 12:54:27 AM   
rtrapasso


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As for repairing oil fields - i've read different things... including the story that the Japanese couldn't get the oil fields into production, but the native workers who had been working with the Dutch showed the Japanese how to make the necessary repairs... So maybe the Japanese got lucky there. However, i don't know how true the story is.

Contrawise, it is completely ahistoric to not be able to disable something before the enemy kills all your engineers and takes it (demolitions of facilities was done historically in the case of some ports, airfields, mines, oilfields) - so perhaps the whole business evens out.

(in reply to rominet)
Post #: 39
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/20/2008 1:01:27 AM   
rominet


Posts: 523
Joined: 10/23/2007
From: Paris
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Contrawise, it is completely ahistoric to not be able to disable something before the enemy kills all your engineers and takes it (demolitions of facilities was done historically in the case of some ports, airfields, mines, oilfields) - so perhaps the whole business evens out.


I agree
What i don't agree with, is the impossibility to repair more than 1 oil pts centers per day.
In the case of miller41 (see above), the war is effectively nearly lost, and due only the a
die roll;
Even if i am the best strategist of the world, i will probably lose the war due to a stupid thing. It's a shame

A good solution would have been to replace for example at Palembang, the (0)X700 oil
center by 7 (0)x100 oil centers.

< Message edited by rominet -- 4/20/2008 3:26:00 AM >

(in reply to rtrapasso)
Post #: 40
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/21/2008 1:32:40 AM   
Uamaga

 

Posts: 79
Joined: 4/17/2008
From: Kraków, Poland
Status: offline
Hi,
here is my second take on Demolition process. Hopefully more precise with few corrections, extensions. Procedure goes like that:

  • First lucky die is rolled with 33% chance of success. If it will success the procedure ends here with all Resource/Oil Centers left intact. However Japanese player should not count on it in case of Palembang (Murphy's Law at work). Maybe at Miri or Taytay...
  • Otherwise a number is to be calculated, I will call it Demolition Ability number (DemoAbility from now on). Please note it is a name invented by me - I have no clue about designer/programmer ideas so it is just a guess on my side. Anyway calculation goes like that:

    • First DemoAbility is set to fixed number (50). In case there is no defender units it will be the final value used to calculate demolition percentage.
    • For every unit defending the base a product of that unit's Experience and unit's raw E-Value is calculated, divided by 10 and then added to DemoAbility totals. But what the E-Value really is?:

      • It is per unit intermediate value set (elsewhere) based on unit's composition. I named it E-Value per analogy to E value (and A, G, F, V values) you can see in tooltip when hoovering the mouse over friendly units on map.
      • Every Engineer team (slot 251) adds up 1 to unit's E-Value.
      • Every Eng. Vehicle (slot 250) adds up 5 to unit's E-Value.
      • Apparently disabled elements of the above are not excluded here. This is different then for E value displayed in tooltip which accounts only for non-disabled elements. So I tend to think about this internal E-value as "raw" one. Nevertheless it seems that this raw value is what matters for demolition purposes. If so disabling elements is not enough and to limit losses you need to kill them. Kill'em all if you can . If you can't you take a risk of raising their Experience.
      • The thing which is not clear to me yet is question if the losses taken in the last combat (one resulting in base capture) have influence on unit's E-Value used here. I tend to think they are not but I'm far from sure here (it is difficult to differentiate here between losses in combat and that taken in forced retreat). Same goes for unit's Experience.

    • After looping throuch all defenders it is time for "unlucky' die roll. There is 33% chance that bad luck will hit Samurai resulting in multiplying DemoAbility by 10. Doom... Doom is hanging over that precious Palembang R/OCs.

  • Now another number is caluclated. Let's call it Demolition Targets (DemoTargets):

    • Airfield adds up its level to DemoTargets totals.
    • Same with Port adding its level to DemoTargets totals.
    • Now go through a loop over all base facitility slots (there is up to 20 facilities in base possible).

      • Exclude Mapower Centers facility.
      • For any other facility (in SRA area there will be mostly R/O Centers, sometimes also HI factories and shipyards) add SizeOfFacility/100+1 to DemoTargets.
      • Strange as it is (and intended or not ) loop does not skip over empty slots. So as a result of this loop it is guranteed to raise DemoTargets by at least 19: 20 slots - 1 slot for MC facility which is present in every base with R/OCs.

    • Examples: For Miri we get DemoTargets=21 (0[AF]+1[Port]+19+1[OilC/100]), for Balikpapan DemoTargets=36 (4+4+19+6[RC/100]+3[OC/100])

  • Finally we get to calculating achived Demolition Percentage (DemoPctage). It is simply a result of division DemoAbility by DemoTargets. Please note that it is integer division so for example: 50/21=2% of damage (case typical for Miri).
  • DemoPctage is now applied to Airfield (Runaway) and Port. Please remember that it adds up to already existing damage from bombardments or land combat.
  • Base Supply and Fuel Storage is reduced by random percentage (between 0 and DemoPctage-1). However as it is not the only place where Supply/Fuel depots can be reduced it is difficult to verify numbers precisly.
  • Now looping trough all Base facilities again:

    • exclude Manpower Center facility (again). Actually MCs are reduced but in procedure above of that handling R/OC Demolition.
    • For all other facilities DemoPctage percentage of facility is disabled. Again integer arthmetic is used. So for example if DemoPctage=2 and RC=10 then no RC get disabled, for DemoPctage=19 and RC=10 still only 1 of 10 RCenters will be disabled.
    • For Oil facility there is second hit applied (probably to model much higher vulnerability of Oil wells comparing to Resource mines?). After apply DemoPctage as above we repeat the procedure again in the same way. For example: for DemoPctage=6 and OC=300 after first step we get OC=282(18); after repetition final result is OC=266(34) (this is quite typical case for Brunei, though beeing unlucky one can get DemoPctage=60! ).

  • That's it .


(in reply to rominet)
Post #: 41
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/21/2008 1:38:20 AM   
USSAmerica


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From: Graham, NC, USA
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Uamaga, where did you come up with all of that detailed information???  It looks more detailed than if you just "came up with something."

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(in reply to Uamaga)
Post #: 42
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 4/21/2008 1:50:20 AM   
Uamaga

 

Posts: 79
Joined: 4/17/2008
From: Kraków, Poland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: USS America

Uamaga, where did you come up with all of that detailed information???  It looks more detailed than if you just "came up with something."


Heh... As I said in case of Aircraft Research: lot os time spend in peeking into the code (no, not source code of course) plus a bit of "field testing". I tried to describe it precisly to give others chance to verify it against real cases. I hope it will defend itself but will see

(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 43
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 7/24/2008 11:56:31 PM   
VSWG


Posts: 3432
Joined: 5/31/2006
From: Germany
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Uamaga


quote:

ORIGINAL: USS America

Uamaga, where did you come up with all of that detailed information???  It looks more detailed than if you just "came up with something."


Heh... As I said in case of Aircraft Research: lot os time spend in peeking into the code (no, not source code of course) plus a bit of "field testing". I tried to describe it precisly to give others chance to verify it against real cases. I hope it will defend itself but will see

That's an impressive formula, but I'd really like to know the basis for your math. You said you looked at the "code, but not the source code". What other code is there? What about your field testing: how many runs, for how many bases? Do you have any statistics that prove that your formula provides better results than just a random number?

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Post #: 44
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 7/25/2008 12:57:52 AM   
rominet


Posts: 523
Joined: 10/23/2007
From: Paris
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rominet


I agree
What i don't agree with, is the impossibility to repair more than 1 oil pts centers per day.
In the case of miller41 (see above), the war is effectively nearly lost, and due only the a
die roll;
Even if i am the best strategist of the world, i will probably lose the war due to a stupid thing. It's a shame

A good solution would have been to replace for example at Palembang, the (0)X700 oil
center by 7 (0)x100 oil centers.


I was speaking about the case of miller41 whose Palembang's oil center has been nearly completely destroyed (1300)x100;
at that time i didn't know that it would be my own case after




< Message edited by rominet -- 7/25/2008 12:59:46 AM >

(in reply to rominet)
Post #: 45
RE: Taking Palembang intact - 8/1/2008 11:29:31 AM   
Jaroen


Posts: 169
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From: Amsterdam
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What I find very interesting to read is the actual story about capturing the oil fields intact. A good link for catching up on the historical view is this one: http://www.geocities.com/dutcheastindies/

So all in all one can say it was all very chaotic to say the least.

I also did some reading on the history of the oil business including a chapter on the Dutch oil fields in the DEI. From that I seem to remember in the case of Balikpapan the actual demolition of the wells and refineries was left to the company engineers and NOT the professional demolition teams with the military enigineers. Even worse, the military didn't seem to appreciate the danger of loosing the resources to the Japanese and it was a decision by the oil company (De Koninklijke/Shell groep) to actually plan and place the demolition charges in order to destroy the plant. They sort of failed because there was no one in charge and the engineers were left to their own initiative. Those few engineers and support personnel left, all in all fewer than 20, acted at the last possible moment and didn't manage to do a lot of harm. Sadly only a few of them escaped imprisonment and execution after a very hard try to get away.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same attitude by the military was also true for the Palembang plant. Nevertheless, the Palembang oilfields were badly damaged (according to sources, but what is "badly damaged"), which I think would actually translate in light damage in WitP (about 20%). It took the Japanese occupying forces about 10 months to restore production and running it on the old level. For this effort they forced local specialists, i.e. Dutch engineers and Indonesian workers, to enact repairs. I'm not very certain on the necessity to employ those Dutch specialists but I believe it was very hard to make een oilfiled produce, especially in the jungle of Sumatra. Were the Japanese drilling crews able to do repairs all by themselves perhaps??? I don't know for sure, but I guess they were utterly stretched in available crews and were desperately in need of those local forces.

So whatever the actual formula used by WitP I do think it models the damage chances and repair possibilities quite good. In reality it was a roll of the dice what damage could be done and repairs were awfully hard to accomplish. But it is a bit of a shame it affects the outcome of the game so strongly.

As an aside, would it help to land paratroopers on the resource areas in the final assault???


< Message edited by Jaroen -- 8/1/2008 3:26:59 PM >

(in reply to rominet)
Post #: 46
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