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RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T231

 
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RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T231 - 6/17/2009 11:33:46 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Oops....I forgot to take shot number 8. It's just about three hexes wide at the southwest corner of the front lines and you're not missing much. Meanwhile Curt tried to execute an invasion during his turn 230 and he didn't quite get ashore so now I have some cleanup to do. I plan to attack his ship-borne troops with my ships and the airborne troops that he dropped with my paratroops using ship's guns as arty. Maybe I can clean-up this without too much trouble. I'll give you guys a full report on the results of my attacks.




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Post #: 751
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T233 - 6/20/2009 11:28:27 PM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's the differences between the front lines in turns 220 and 233. You can see how the Soviets have pushed the lines inward and especially the southwest part has been pushed northward. I expect Curt to make a breakthrough any turn now and then it's the beginning of the end. My dudes are tired, down to about 1/2 strength and don't have much fight left in them.




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Post #: 752
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 6/27/2009 6:02:16 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's a picture of the breakthroughs that the Soviets made in turn 235 as it looks like to the Axis side at the beginning of Axis turn 236. There are at least three places where there have been serious breaches of the Axis line: the western edge, the southern edge and the northwest edge. I will post a close-up picture of those three areas to give you a better idea of what they look like.





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Post #: 753
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 6/27/2009 6:04:20 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's a picture of the western edge breakthrough. It's the only place where I think maybe the Axis can block the hole(s) ( temperarily ).




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Post #: 754
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 6/27/2009 6:07:36 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's a picture of the southern edge hole. I'm not at all sure that the Axis forces can block this hole meaningfully. This rip through the lines is permanent I'm afraid. I expect the winter '43 mud season to start approx. in turn 240 and the Soviets probably can't capture Berlin in the four or five turns that are left from now until then so I'm thinking that I might, I say might, be able to pull back everybody that can move and build another series of front lines around Berlin. I have no hopes of holding out very long after that.




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Post #: 755
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 6/27/2009 6:09:45 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's a picture of the northwest edge breech. This hole too, is probably permanent. I haven't started moving very many Axis units yet but as you can see, there aren't many that could be moved that would help out very much. Fortunately, this section of the front lines is furtherest from Berlin and there is lots of room to fall back here. That's my intention for these folks. Curt's aim for this section of front lines is to, probably, isolate these Axis units by surrounding them and letting them wither on the vine, or maybe destroying them in place. Either way they are doomed if I can't pull them back far enough to avoid being surrounded where I can't use them after the winter '43 mud season ends.




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< Message edited by larryfulkerson -- 6/27/2009 6:15:13 AM >

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Post #: 756
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 6/27/2009 6:17:10 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here is a big part of the reason why the breeches are being seen already: The number of HRS's is very low and decreasing at an increasing rate. That is, I have less HRS's now than ever and I'm loosing them faster than I ever have before. This is the start of the end of this game I guess.




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Post #: 757
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 6/27/2009 6:57:31 AM   
Veer


Posts: 2231
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Excuse me
Status: offline 		RETREAT TO THE ODER! RUN LIKE THE WIND!

Wow... that's about 50% of your HSR's destroyed in 20 turns or so.


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Post #: 758
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 6/27/2009 11:39:29 AM   
LLv34_Snefens


Posts: 254
Joined: 6/14/2006
From: Aarhus, Denmark
Status: offline 		That is a tricky one. One thing is sure. You can't afford any more withdrawals south of Berlin.
IF you make it to the cease-fire I would only pull all the way back to the Oder (red line) if you really don't have any units to form a line, or he is within 5-10 hexes from Berlin from the south anyway.

The light green line gives good fortified positions up north, but will have it's south eastern corner need to run through op land.
Dark green line is behind river, but I still think it will be a waste to try to defend so far east if he is close to Berlin from south anyway.
Yellow is my personal favorite. It might not have the best terrain (mostly just rivers), but it is short and has two obvious fall back lines (orange and red) before Berlin.




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< Message edited by LLv34_Snefens -- 6/27/2009 11:40:38 AM >

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Post #: 759
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 6/27/2009 10:57:45 PM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's the final positions of the Axis units at the end of turn 236. By some miracle I managed to cover all the holes in the lines....but most of the units are mearly tired low-strength roadbumps. Curt will have no problemo pushing them out of the way in his turn. Which means that I'll have more holes to try to plug in turn 237 when it's my turn to move again.

I think you guys for all your suggestions, but I have no illusions that this is the end of the line for this game. I was thinking of just giving the game to Curt and ending it.....but that would mean he would have no joy in taking Berlin. I couldn't do that to a fellow Vietnam vet. Getting spit on at the airport was all the dissappointment needed for one lifetime.

So this game is going all the way to the end.




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Post #: 760
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 6/27/2009 11:06:27 PM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's what Berlin looks like now ( red rectangle ) and I have drawn some red arrows depicting the predicted path of some Soviet units as the most likely attack axis for his final push from the South. Other holes in the line will have simular paths and I'm thinking he'll probably surround Berlin completely destroying units and pushing units back simultaneously until they have nowhere else to go. I'm guessing it'll all be over by turn 250 or so.




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Post #: 761
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T237 - 6/29/2009 5:09:19 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's what the front lines look like at the start of Axis turn 237. Not as bad as I expected but still pretty bad. It only looks this good because Curt got a very short turn and didn't get to take advantage of the breaks he made in my lines. Next turn I won't be so lucky.




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< Message edited by larryfulkerson -- 6/29/2009 5:10:46 AM >

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Post #: 762
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T238 - 7/1/2009 1:56:09 PM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		In the midst of all the Soviet attacks and stuff I forgot to check if there were going to be any units that are going to withdraw soon and there were some and I didn't know about it and there were some weak spots in the front lines so Curt took advantage of them. He made some significant progress this turn. I'll post a picture to show you in the next post.




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Post #: 763
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T238 - 7/1/2009 2:00:41 PM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's the front lines at the beginning of Axis turn 238. There's a couple of breaks but mostly the dudes are holding magnificantly, for now at least.




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Post #: 764
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T238 - 7/1/2009 9:16:23 PM   
HamburgerHill


Posts: 152
Joined: 6/30/2009
Status: offline 		 I only recently joined this forum, but I have been watching it for probably 3 or 4 years.

I just wanted to say thanx Larry for all the great AAR's you have made. I've folowed at least a dozen of them from begining to end and they were always great fun.

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Post #: 765
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T238 - 7/1/2009 9:32:40 PM   
damezzi

 

Posts: 299
Joined: 7/18/2007
Status: offline 		I'll second that. I think Larry makes the difference in keeping this forum active with his AARs.
Even if sometimes no feedback is posted, I'm sure he knows everyone is watching.

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Post #: 766
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 7/1/2009 9:55:37 PM   
Dr. Foo


Posts: 666
Joined: 8/31/2004
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline
quote:

I'm guessing it'll all be over by turn 250 or so.


Looks like its over now. Great AAR's I look forward to many more!

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Do not accept or follow any medical advice*

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Post #: 767
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 7/3/2009 1:02:15 AM   
BigDuke66


Posts: 2013
Joined: 2/1/2001
From: Terra
Status: offline 		Seeing this major withdrawal already in 1943 I wonder if something has to be adjusted or did only the players made this big difference?

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Post #: 768
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 7/5/2009 8:55:25 AM   
Veer


Posts: 2231
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Excuse me
Status: offline 		On reading the AAR it's hard to say. Larry did better than the Germans historically (he captured Leningrad) but his losses were severe. Without any idea of what Soviet losses were like we're a bit in the dark.

< Message edited by Veer -- 7/5/2009 9:22:35 AM >

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Post #: 769
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 7/8/2009 5:56:21 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BigDuke66
Seeing this major withdrawal already in 1943 I wonder if something has to be adjusted or did only the players made this big difference?

The simple fact is that I just lost my nerve and pulled back prematurely. If I had stayed there and fought it out I may have salvaged a bad situation and it might have turned out lots better than it's ending up as.
I phrased that lousily. Anyway Curt and I have corresponded back and forth about it via email and I think we agree that I pulled back too soon and that's what made this big difference. At least I think so. And I agree that not knowing what the Soviet losses were during the various stages of the game is a huge drawback on what might or might not be grounds for some design changes to FITE. This is turning out to be my favorite scenario as you may have already guessed. Curt is a great player and I've learned a thing or two during this bout.

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Post #: 770
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T239 - 7/8/2009 5:59:52 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		I don't know if you guys want to watch the gruesome details or not but I thought I'd post the surround and destroy phase as it happens so you don't miss anything. Here's the picture as of the start of Axis turn 239 and you can see the penetration of the Soviet units into the Axis hinterland.




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Post #: 771
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T240 - 7/10/2009 6:23:22 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's what the situation looks like at the beginning of Axis turn 240. I'm ruined since the mud season didn't start in 240 like I had planned. So it looks like the Soviets may be able to isolate a large portion of my front line units and I won't be able to use them in the final defense post-mud season. The Axis unit have made large incursions into the rear areas and I have nothing left to chase them down. The German units don't retreat very well since there aren't very many recon units to screen their movements so it's looking like the will be mostly destroyed in place.

Please note the attempted invasion via Sea on the coast area behind my lines. I may be able to hold out there for a while using my ships.

Oh, and thanks for all your kind words about the AAR's. I'd do it even if nobody watched it but I'm glad you guys are keeping up and enjoying it.




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< Message edited by larryfulkerson -- 7/10/2009 6:24:46 AM >

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Post #: 772
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T240 - 7/10/2009 6:32:16 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's some more detail on the southeast corner of the front lines where the Soviets made their largest incursion so far. You can see the weakness and frailty of my units in that area.




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Post #: 773
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T240 - 7/10/2009 6:33:44 AM   
desert


Posts: 827
Joined: 9/14/2006
Status: offline 		Looking through the older pages in the AAR subforum, one can see that pretty much half of all the AARs are by you.

Every strategy game has its AAR champions; you, sir, are the TOAW champion!

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Post #: 774
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T240 - 7/10/2009 6:34:51 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's what it looks like in the northeast corner.




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Post #: 775
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T240 - 7/10/2009 7:28:50 PM   
Veer


Posts: 2231
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Excuse me
Status: offline 		Looks like your troops in the Ostrowiec Pocket ( southeast cornerpic) are pretty much done for as there is no road leading out of it.

Once the Mud Season starts are you planning a retreat to the Oder?


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Post #: 776
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T240 - 7/11/2009 4:03:32 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's what the front lines look like at the end of the Axis turn 240. I haven't been able to stop the incursions but maybe I can slow them down enough to give me time to pull back to the Oder river once the mud season starts, which will be soon I hope.




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Post #: 777
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T236 - 7/12/2009 2:23:31 AM   
Raindem

 

Posts: 696
Joined: 7/15/2000
From: Arizona
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: larryfulkerson

quote:

ORIGINAL: BigDuke66
Seeing this major withdrawal already in 1943 I wonder if something has to be adjusted or did only the players made this big difference?

The simple fact is that I just lost my nerve and pulled back prematurely. If I had stayed there and fought it out I may have salvaged a bad situation and it might have turned out lots better than it's ending up as.
I phrased that lousily. Anyway Curt and I have corresponded back and forth about it via email and I think we agree that I pulled back too soon and that's what made this big difference. At least I think so. And I agree that not knowing what the Soviet losses were during the various stages of the game is a huge drawback on what might or might not be grounds for some design changes to FITE. This is turning out to be my favorite scenario as you may have already guessed. Curt is a great player and I've learned a thing or two during this bout.


I completely agree with Larry's assessment here. If he would have held on to the next mud season he could have disengaged his entire army without penalty and retreated to the original start line, or somewhere around there. Even with everything in my favor and a 90 - 4 air superiority I've had to sustain many casualties to make any breaks in his line.


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Post #: 778
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T241 - 7/12/2009 4:45:45 AM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Curt was kind enough to share his END_OF_TURN file with us so we could see what the Soviet losses are. Thanks Curt.






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Post #: 779
RE: Curt vs Larry FITE T241 - 7/12/2009 11:55:27 PM   
larryfulkerson


Posts: 39932
Joined: 4/17/2005
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline 		Here's what it looks like at the end of Axis turn 241. This is the first of the mud season turns and I finally have a chance to pull my dudes back to the Oder river and set up my final defensive line. I'm going to invest some effort destroying the bridges from where they were to where they are going so that the Soviet dudes will have just that much more hassle getting to my dudes, not that it will make all that much difference. Not much will be happening during the mud turns so I'll be posting less frequently until the war starts up again. Although it might be instructive to post a series of detailed pictures of the final front lines so you guys can see what they look like. I'll do that when they get into position.

Some of my dudes were in reorg and couldn't move and some were isolated and it didn't make sense to try to move them very far. Other than that most of my dudes are headed to the west for the final showdown.




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< Message edited by larryfulkerson -- 7/12/2009 11:56:46 PM >

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