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The Cost of an Invasion

 
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The Cost of an Invasion - 1/15/2010 5:02:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The amphibious assault on the Kuriles is winding down.  I've stripped my escort carrier TFs of BBs, CLs, and a few DDs and ordered the CVEs to make haste for the Bering Sea.  If the KB doesn't show up tomorrow or the next day, they should make it fine and I will consider that an important achievement in an otherwise bloody campaign.  Here's some information about the campaign that I find interesting:

1.  Losses of xAKs was horrific - 45 to this point.  A majority of these were claimed by Paramushiro's 4YT guns, but a fair number were claimed by Netties.  A few succumbed to sub and mine.  45 xAKs!  That's alot of supplies that went glug, glug.

2.  Other ships lost to date:  LST (1), AM (3), xAP (5), AKL (2), LCI (3), AR (1), AK (3), DMS (1), DD (1 - a "picket" ship picked off by the KB).

3.  That's 63 ships to this point.  Even if the KB doesn't show up for a few more days I'll lose some more to high damage.  Imagine IF the KB HAD been present.  The invasion would have failed (or my troops would have been in such terrible shape that I wouldn't be able to hold the island).

4.  In two more days I'll declare Operation Royal complete.  From then on the invasion changes to Operation Chattanooga - the effort to hold the islands against the inevitable (and highly necessary, from a Japanese perspective) counterattack.

5.  Note the marked lack of combat ships in the casualty list.  The Japanese bombers and CD guns focused heavily on transports, which I think is a wise choice.  I do have some damaged combat ships - CA San Francisco is moderately-heavy damaged by Netties yesterday, and a CL (Phoenix?) took heavy damage.

6.  I have transferred all airworthy fighters off the CVEs to Para and replaced losses.  I'll soon have a good 150 to 175 fighters on the ground including one Corsair squadron.  Most of these pilots have experience at or just below 60.

7.  With all the xAKs lost, I'm much shorter on supplies than I had anticipated.  Right now Para has 27K with perhaps another 100K available to unload if I have time.

8.  The Allies have two big BB TFs stationed at Para.

9.  To this point the Allies haven't lost many troop transports or LSTs, which is good.

10.  Thus far Miller has lost an AS, maybe a sub or two, and lost about 200 aircraft (to perhaps 50 for the Allies).

11. I can shuttle even short-range aircraft (F4Fs, etc) from Attu Island to Para, which is a help.

Edited to update for ships that went under on the 6th and 7th (these succumbed to previous damage; there were no new hits over this period).

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/15/2010 7:55:03 PM >

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Post #: 661
RE: The Cost of an Invasion - 1/15/2010 5:25:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		P.S.  I just lost a picket DD I had sent far south from the Kuriles.  I should have moved her over to Midway, but forgot.  But some Vals just visited and finished her off, so I know where the KB is now - near Marcus Island and heading north.

P.P.S. I had AKEs and AEs in the invasion fleet and I've just topped off my combat TFs with ammunition.  Those are handy things to have along.

P.P.P.S.  With the KB still that far away the Allied CVEs should make it back to the good ol' USA.  Those ships combined with Wasp, Saratoga, Victorious, and the numerous CVs that arrive between May and July will give the Allies a stout force.

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Post #: 662
RE: Port Royal - 1/15/2010 5:31:20 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Canoerebel,

Very nicely done up North, sir. I Like your force compositions. The fact that Paramushiro was already AF 4 is some divine luck that is, for once, favorable to you. Now the shoe is on the other foot re: the Japanese amphibious 'anti-bonus' after April 1942. It will be enormously costly for him to land sufficient forces on either of these islands in the face of 2 (!) CD units to capture them.

I would not have thought of transferring the CVE fighters to the Kuriles before they departed, but that is a very efficient use of scarce resources.

Now that you have fields that can provide fighter coverage for additional landings, are you considering any supplemental Kurile landings that can supported by LBA? Even an additional AF 3 in this area could provide supporting LRCAP and could house DB and TB squadrons. This could continue to compound the problem for Miller there. Any Dive Bombers or torpedo bombers en route to the Kuriles (particularly Paramushiro)?

An AF HQ here could also limit the effects of 'overstacking', which will be tempting for you. Without an AF HQ it may be difficult for you to get replacement F4Fs at that range from the Aleutians.

Of course, this now means that he gets Kamikazes on January 1, 1944. It's up to you to turn northern Honshu, Hokkaido and Sakhalin resources, refinery and oil production into ashes and cinders in 12 months. I'm cautiously optimistic that you're on the right path now.

Give 'em hell!

ETA: Cross-posted with your update.

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RE: Port Royal - 1/15/2010 6:02:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Both Onnekotan and Paramushiro's fields can be built to level seven.

Originally, I had also planned to take Ketoi Jima, which can be built to level five airfield.  However, when I found a Naval Guard unit at Onnekotan - I had been expecting just an engineer there - I diverted the Ketoi troops to Onnekotan to make sure I could take the island.

So I'll try to build up both bases to level seven.  I won't be advancing any further in the near future - I'll have my hands full defending my gains for some time to come.  Probably by mid-summer I'll have the carrier oomph to be able to move forward if I wish to do so and if the islands aren't so clogged with defenders that taking them isn't worth it.

Looking at the map and the position of the carriers that hit my DD, I think the KB will arrive tomorrow.  But I am thrilled that my CVEs made it out of dodge.

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Post #: 664
RE: Port Royal - 1/15/2010 8:06:59 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The KB is just south of Ketoi Jima and tomorrow there should be a great air/sea battle.  I've been fortunate to have enough time to establish the airfield and fighter protection.  Here's the skinny:

1. Para has a level four airfield with base force enough to handle 215 aircraft.  I have about 209 aircraft on the field, but I'll stand down the Corsairs to make sure I'm under the limit of 200 (the Corsair pilots have low experience).  Pilot experience for the other squadrons ranges from 58 to 62.  All squadrons are set to 70% CAP and altitudes range from 6,000 feet (for one small Wildcat squadron) to 36,000 feet.  All but that one squadron are staggered from 15k to 36k.  I hope this will be sufficient to knock down alot of KB pilots.

2.  I have two big combat TFs - one comprised of Indiana, Warspite, and a slow BB; the other comprised of three slow BBs.  I still have alot of transports unloading at Para, plus support and auxilliary ships.  I expect to face a sizeable combat TF including Yamato.

3.  The escort carriers made it deep into the Bering Sea on a general heading toward Nome; but now they'll turn east and then southeast to make for Kodiak Island.  Besides taking Para and Onne, my biggest satisfaction (or relief) is making it through this action without losing a carrier.

4.  Miller may decide retaking the islands would be too difficult - he may elect to defend from what he already holds.  He's a cautious enough player (and a very capable tactical defender) that I consider this possible.  But I also think that would be a mistake.  He probably needs to bring a huge force to try to retake the islands.  How hard will that be?  To shift all his shipping and enough men from where they are concentrated at the moment will take much time and effort and fuel.

5.  It will also necessarily disperse his men, ships, and aircraft.  Opening a two-front war is a big step in the right direction.  This should reduce the heat noticeably in the DEI, though I expect he's left behind the Mini-KB and some BBs) and I bet I stop seeing the huge number of subs that used to haunt the waters from the West Coast to Tahiti to Auckland.  Most of those will be shifted to hot-area duty.

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RE: Port Royal - 1/15/2010 9:04:19 PM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Wrong move by Miller??

Send the KB toward Dutch Harbour, Umnak area to cut off your returning fleets and IFF he has Yamato & Mutsu send them to hit Paramushiro.

Instead he is sending everything against your strongest point. He has lost the islands, he needs to cripple your fleets.


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RE: Port Royal - 1/15/2010 10:23:21 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Miller doesn't know that there aren't torpedo-equipped airplanes on the Kuriles yet. If he thought that there may be torpedo-equipped aircraft there, it would be unwise to send an SCTF within striking range.

I'm hoping that he bombards and forgets to turn off 'escorts do not bombard' switch. The CDs ought to 'bring it' to a number of DDs and CLs if he makes that mistake.

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RE: Port Royal - 1/15/2010 10:24:38 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Canoerebel,

At your convenience, can we request a map of your force dispositions within the Kuriles (and as much of Hokkaido and Sakhalin as you can muster for calculating distance)?

Thanks!

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RE: Port Royal - 1/16/2010 12:39:24 AM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Miller doesn't know that there aren't torpedo-equipped airplanes on the Kuriles yet. If he thought that there may be torpedo-equipped aircraft there, it would be unwise to send an SCTF within striking range.

I'm hoping that he bombards and forgets to turn off 'escorts do not bombard' switch. The CDs ought to 'bring it' to a number of DDs and CLs if he makes that mistake.


The US doesnt have enough torpedo planes to cover both Paramushiro and provide a strike force for his CV, assuming Dan has the Marine VMTB in the area. If he is scared of them I cant imagine how he would ever face up to a CV v CV battle.

If he can escort his Netties with LBA, he could LRCAP his surface fleet (I think from Etorofu), if concerned he could have a small CVE/CVL force to cover the SCTF.

In the end, he will probably smash Paramushiro rather than devastate the retreating Invasion fleets.

< Message edited by JeffK -- 1/16/2010 12:41:17 AM >

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RE: Port Royal - 1/16/2010 12:52:12 AM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Well, this will be fun. Anything you would like to do over or should have done for this invasion?

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RE: Port Royal - 1/16/2010 1:32:38 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Miller wanted to get my carriers, there's no doubt.  But I think he realizes they've fled and he doesn't know where they've gone.  JeffK, your idea is a good one, but to Miller it must seem like "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."  He KNOWS I have lots of juicy targets at Paramushiro...and I actually don't have much in the Aleutians (my CVEs are way up in the Bering Sea; plus, the Aleutians have lots of big air bases with lots of aircraft).

He also knows I have TBFs - because a few sortied and sank an AS at Para at the beginning of the invasion.  None are there now, but he's got to assume they pose a risk.

CRSutton, great question.  Very, very much went right with this invasion, but there are two things that "went wrong":  (1) Two-day turns seriously complicated planning and execution.  When you don't have the ability to adjust things and react to problems until a second day has passed it's a serious disadvantage [not complaining about that - it's just a reality of two-day turns, which I still much prefer; (2) I had too too too many small supply TFs - five xAKs here, ten xAKs there, etc.  I should have had more 20 xAK TFs.  I also should have kept them a hex away from Para longer, but I was afraid the KB would arrive any moment so I was trying to get supplies ashore.

Chickenboy, I'll post a map tomorrow (I don't have the game on my home computer).  But I do know that the rest of the Kuriles and Sikhalin Island were very lightly garrisoned (from SigInt, etc.)  So, in addition to fighting the invader, Miller also will have to scramble to reinforce both areas.  He's got alot on his plate, with all that plus the need to keep things under control in the DEI.  I love that he has to fight at two widely-separated places and that he has to now scramble after just scrambling in the DEI.  I'm sure his logistics have been stretched awfully thin.

I have one major problem - I have eight fighter squadrons set to fly CAP at Para - a level four airfield.  I purposefully checked to see that the airbase didn't have an asterisk indicating too many units active.  It didn't.  But later I went back and checked a file a few days eariler and there WAS an asterisk.  So there is a possibility that the asterisk should have been in place and that I have too many fighters. 

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/16/2010 1:35:19 AM >

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RE: The Cost of an Invasion - 1/16/2010 2:53:24 AM   
CarnageINC


Posts: 2208
Joined: 2/28/2005
From: Rapid City SD
Status: offline 		Very interesting invasion, I was pondering such a move in my game. Lessons to be learned from this

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Just Total Carnage - 1/16/2010 9:56:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/8/43 to 3/11/43
 
There has been total carnage in the Pacific as the Japanese have thrown everything against the invader.  The results are dramatic and I'd say the Allies have taken more damage, yet strategically the Allied position may be stronger due to the losses taken by Japan.

1.  Opening Surface Engagement: On the 8th and 9th, a powerful Japanese CA/CL force hit the Allied combat ships at Paramushiro and wreaked havoc.  I could not believe the devastation wrought to the Allied ships.  Then the Japanese tangled with the transports and auxilliary ships and wrought havoc.

2.  The opening Japanese naval air strikes on the 8th and 9th were also effective, further doing massive damage to the Allied combat and non-combat shipping.  The only plus here was that the Allied CAP did well, the Japanese losing more than 200 aircraft to less than 100 for the Allies.

3.  Second Surface Engagement:  The Japanese battleships came in on the 10th and 11th; first came Kirishima, Haruna, Hiei, and CA/CL support, followed by Yamato and CA/CL support.  These ships dealt serious blows to the remaining Allied combat ships, but this time the Allies delivered much more than they took.  The damage included single PT torpedo hits against two crippled Japanese BBs sending them down.

4.  The KB moved south and there were only fihgter sweeps over these two days, with both sides suffering about equal damage.

5.  The Allies lost nearly all remaining non-combat ships - a massive total.  I'm guesstimating that all told I've lost perhaps 150 ships in this invasion including, now, BB Warspite and at least three old BBs.  I've lost four CA/CL  including CA Wichita and CL Phoenix.  I've only lost a couple of DDs.

6.  The Japanese have lost BBs Haruna and Kirishima.  BB Hiei is badly damaged.  Haruna suffered at least moderate damage. The Japanese have lost an equal number of CA/CL and at leat nine DDs.

7.  Thus far the Japanese haven't touched the ground troops, airfield, or port facilities.

8.  All Allied AKE and AE are so badly damaged (or sunk) that they can no longer replenish.  I won't be able to hang around much longer, but I think I've got enough to give at least one more solid surface combat using CL/DD.

9.  Reinforcements are on the way but it'll be awhile before I can get them in - I'll have to wait for the KB to clear.  That means my position will be under defended or undefended in all likelihood.  The reinforcements will include two slow BBs and BB Massachusetts.

10.  The Allies have a vast number of moderately damaged combat ships including at least four BBs and some CA/CLs.  I'm going to send a few sprinting toward the Bering Sea tomorrow, as the KB seems to be heading SW to refuel/replenish?

I've lost so terribly, terribly much; and yet I still feel like I'm ahead for these reasons:

1)  Solid hold on two big bases close to the Home Islands.
2)  As long as supplies hold out I can send in fresh fighters from Attu Island.  It's going to be tough for Miller to suppress Para's airfield.
3)  Despite outrageously high losses in merchant ships, the Japanese navy has suffered some major losses that will have far-reaching effects for the reast of the war.

I'll post a map later and perhaps a more detailed summary of the losses, but only when I have some time to breath.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/16/2010 10:02:14 PM >

(in reply to CarnageINC)
Post #: 673
RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/17/2010 3:44:19 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Wow. Well, you got his attention...

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RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/17/2010 3:46:11 AM   
BrucePowers


Posts: 12094
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Status: offline 		How will this effect your next invasion, wherever that is?

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Post #: 675
RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/17/2010 5:44:40 AM   
krupp_88mm


Posts: 406
Joined: 10/13/2008
Status: offline 		why delay.. just do a direct landing on tokyo stop beating around the bush


no but seriously wont he just now fortify teh north home island into a super fortress that you can never penetrate? how will you get past now or is this jsut a feint of a feint of a feint and teh REAL STRICK is coming in now somewhere else.. hehehehe

< Message edited by krupp_88mm -- 1/17/2010 6:58:14 AM >

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RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/17/2010 8:57:45 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		As Q-Ball has been known to say, there are only two objectives for the Allies in WitP/AE:  (1) get bases within striking range of the DEI and (2) get bases within strategic bombing range of the Home Islands.  And Q-Ball is right.  It should never be necessary for the Allies to invade the Home Islands - fun and doable, maybe, but not necessary.  If the Allies get big bases within range of the Home Islands they can pound Japan to death.  I did it that way in WitP and that's what I plan to do in this game. 

Objective Two is now accomplished and it's only early 1943.  Admittedly, Paramushiro and Onnekotan aren't enough to pound Japan to death, but they pose serious threats:  witness Miller's violent and terribly bloody reaction to these events.  He knows he's in big do-do.  Not only does he have to attack the Allies here, he now has to scramble to seriously reinforce alot of NoPac territory - especially the rest of the Kuriles, Sikhalin Island and Hokkaido. He's going to have to shift what amounts to armies way up here. 

All this is going to tax his logistics and it's going to weaken him elsewhere.  Three weeks ago I was facing the entire KB and eleven Japanese BBs in the DEI.  Now the KB is far away, four Japanese battleships have been sunk, and the DEI is not as heavily guarded.

A significant number of Japanese stronggholds have been rendered irrelevant by the recent Allied action in the eaastern DEI and the Kuriles:  Tarawa, Kwajalein, Milne Bay, Port Moresby, and Lunga are of no importance.  Eniwetok, Rabaul and Wake are of marginal importance.

So despite the tremendous cost paid by the Allies this has been a great strategic success.  Despite the blood-letting on a tactical level, it's also paid dividends there.  The prospect of a massed Japanese counterinvasion has to have taken a hit with the loss of so many Japanese BBs (and CAs, CLs and DDs).

Next invasion?  I don't know. I'm going to have to reestablish my transport fleet and that will take months.  In the short run I'll probably divert alot of British ships currently in the India area to the Pacific.  That's fine, though, as the war is going to be fought in the eastern DEI and NoPac.  By the time the Allies shift ships to the Pacific and allow for replacements to arrive in the ordinary course of the game it will be mid-summer - and by then the Allies have at least four big carriers arriving and a number of CVL and CVE.  At that point we have parity in the Pacific and the Allies can begin to consider where the next big shove will occur.  Until then, it's time to defend and attrit, and since the Japanese have to come to us (or, they had better, because the NoPac bases are potential death to Japan) this favors the Allies.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/17/2010 8:59:22 AM >

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RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/17/2010 9:26:43 AM   
aztez

 

Posts: 4031
Joined: 2/26/2005
From: Finland
Status: offline 		Good move and very sensible thoughts above!

You really don't need to seize whole pacific to get the job done!

Those airbases in north are very nice to have! It will be hard for Miller to dislodge you now that the landings went solid! With an air HQ long legged bombers can visit quite nicely into Japan itself.

Keep up the good work! The prize you paid is definately worth when comparing to the gains you made.

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RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/17/2010 3:28:34 PM   
Galahad78

 

Posts: 386
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Status: offline 		Cannot recall if you've said anything about it but, have you arranged a good sub patrol line up there to greet KB/Yamato/possible landing forces as they deserve?

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RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/17/2010 3:53:14 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: krupp_88mm
no but seriously wont he just now fortify teh north home island into a super fortress that you can never penetrate? how will you get past now or is this jsut a feint of a feint of a feint and teh REAL STRICK is coming in now somewhere else.. hehehehe

A Japanese player that retreats into the turtle shell of the home islands in 1943 is a Japanese player that loses the game. Quickly. The Japanese player needs to import copious amounts of oil, resources and fuel in order to power its industry. Losing either access to resources and oil (e.g., DEI cut off) or having factories bombed (e.g., Allied strategic bombing offensive against the home islands) will accomplish much the same thing. Canoerebel threatens to do both of these things now. A home islands invasion is absolutely not necessary to win the war (in 1943!) for Canoerebel.

Maybe if the Northern islands had been taken in early 1945 the Japanese player could rest on their laurels and live off of the supply already in hand. In 1943 this is not a practical solution.

Miller is hosed. Canoerebel has him between a rock and a hard place. Shift forces homeward? For Miller, this will mean more rapid advances for the allies in the DEI (=death for Japan). Stay the course in the DEI? For Miller this will mean strategic bombing commences forthwith from capable bases in the Kuriles (=death for Japan). In one motion, Canoerebel has opened that elusive second front against the IJ.

Here's what I would expect:

1. Less pressure in China. This represents the closest source of IJA troops for a counteroffensive. Miller will pull back his troops on endless offensive in China to a defensive position. He'll also move those troops across Korea to Japan and Sikahalin proper.

2. Defensive position in DEI. He'll likely marshall his forces against the greater immediate threat: the Northern islands campaign. I would not expect a massive DEI reinforcement from him at this point. The allies have too much to dislodge.

3. Continuing pressure against the Northern islands. Expect LBA to enter the picture soon from the HI, particularly bases on the NE side of Hokkaido. They can engage in sweeps and airfield attacks to diminish airfield CAP.

If Miller has been training up pilots, he will have a health stable of IJN and IJA pilots and reserve airframes to put them in. I'd expect these to make an appearance soon.

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RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/17/2010 4:43:11 PM   
Grollub


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: krupp_88mm
no but seriously wont he just now fortify teh north home island into a super fortress that you can never penetrate? how will you get past now or is this jsut a feint of a feint of a feint and teh REAL STRICK is coming in now somewhere else.. hehehehe

A Japanese player that retreats into the turtle shell of the home islands in 1943 is a Japanese player that loses the game. Quickly. The Japanese player needs to import copious amounts of oil, resources and fuel in order to power its industry. Losing either access to resources and oil (e.g., DEI cut off) or having factories bombed (e.g., Allied strategic bombing offensive against the home islands) will accomplish much the same thing. Canoerebel threatens to do both of these things now. A home islands invasion is absolutely not necessary to win the war (in 1943!) for Canoerebel.

Maybe if the Northern islands had been taken in early 1945 the Japanese player could rest on their laurels and live off of the supply already in hand. In 1943 this is not a practical solution.

Miller is hosed. Canoerebel has him between a rock and a hard place. Shift forces homeward? For Miller, this will mean more rapid advances for the allies in the DEI (=death for Japan). Stay the course in the DEI? For Miller this will mean strategic bombing commences forthwith from capable bases in the Kuriles (=death for Japan). In one motion, Canoerebel has opened that elusive second front against the IJ.

Here's what I would expect:

1. Less pressure in China. This represents the closest source of IJA troops for a counteroffensive. Miller will pull back his troops on endless offensive in China to a defensive position. He'll also move those troops across Korea to Japan and Sikahalin proper.

2. Defensive position in DEI. He'll likely marshall his forces against the greater immediate threat: the Northern islands campaign. I would not expect a massive DEI reinforcement from him at this point. The allies have too much to dislodge.

3. Continuing pressure against the Northern islands. Expect LBA to enter the picture soon from the HI, particularly bases on the NE side of Hokkaido. They can engage in sweeps and airfield attacks to diminish airfield CAP.

If Miller has been training up pilots, he will have a health stable of IJN and IJA pilots and reserve airframes to put them in. I'd expect these to make an appearance soon.

As I see it, the only "long term" solution for Miller would be to re-invade in the north and thus remove the immediate threat to the HI. I put long term within "", as the problem with that option is that I feel this wouldn't be much of a long term solution. That move would have to glue most of the japanese fleet resources in the northern area, giving Canoerebel more freedom of movement both in the DEI and elsewhere. Miller is indeed between a rock and a hard place.

In other words, I think you made a good analysis and I concur.

Edited: Spelling/grammar

< Message edited by Grollub -- 1/17/2010 6:35:04 PM >

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RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/18/2010 2:49:38 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/11/43 to 3/15/43

Operation Port Royal: With the taking of Paramushiro Jima and Onnekotan Jima, the sinking of nearly an entire Allied transport fleet, significant and roughly equal losses of combat ships, and the Allies with an advantage in aircraft losses, this operation has ended. To my surprise it ends with the Allies the only players on the field at the moment. Miller threw the kitchen sink at the Allies, nearly wiped out my ships, but I'm left with a medium-sized CL/DD force while the Japanese have recalled all their ships and halted bombing - temporarily, of course, but it's a nice breather. The Allies have 1050 AV ashore at Para with a Marine CD and Coastal CD, two forts, and progress in building the port and airfield. There is 200 AV ashore at Onnekotan with one fort. This islands' defense is augmented by two Marine CD and two artillery units.

Operation Chattanooga: This will be the operation to hold, supply, and reinforce the besiged fortresses of Par and Onne. First thing's first - I'm withdrawing the CL/DD ships to Attu to resupply from an AD in port. In their absence, PT boats will provide the defense. It will take Miller a few turns to realize they are gone, and by then they'll be back. I have two slow BBs and some other combat ships on the way, but it will likely be a week before I'm ready to insert them into the front lines. At about the same time I'll try to move in supplies via LST and augment the mining. Further back, BB Massachussets, CV Victorious, and escorts will arrive at Pearl in four or five days. Even further back, CVs Wasp and Lexington, BB South Dakota, and escorts are heading to Pago Pago and thence to Pearl.

Port Royal Combat Ships: I had four moderately to heavily damaged BBs at Para - two of these have made it far enough east to be out of imminent danger - especially BB Indiana. A third is half way to Attu. The fourth leaves Para tonight - the last of the battle casualties. The CVEs are at Kodiak and will head to Prince Rupert, a level six port that keeps them a bit closer to the action (if needed) than would Seattle. The Allies have thus far lost two BBs in this engagement (Warspite and Idaho). Given the massive combat sequences and prolonged assaults by the KB it will be a near miracle to have four survive, and barring sub attack or sudden leap-frog of the KB into the Bering Sea they should make it now. The Japanese lost four BBs (Haruna, Kirishima, Hiei, Kongo).

SWPac: The Allies don't have the ability to spring forward from Darwin, yet, despite the absence of the KB and some of the Japanese BBs. I could try to force something, but the odds are that it would just further dilute my remaining transport power. I prefer to build up the network of airfields so that eventually (in a month or two or three) the Allies can move forward in power and under cover of LBA. Toward that end the Allies are building the base a hex off the coast of Darwin, Darwin is level 8, Fenton is level 2 (and building), and Katherine is level 3 (and building). Saumlaki has a critically located level 2 airbase, but Miller has totally suppressed it by bombing. Eventually I'll be able to contest the air. At the point the Allies can reestablish and air force on Saumlaki, they'll be ready to move forward.

SoPac: Fiji Islanders and Kiwis have reclaimed the Ellice Islands, which were vacant. Eventually I'll recon Baker to see if it is occupied.

Burma: The Allies have troops in all the hexes around Akyab now and a combat TF just sank two Japanese AKs and two PBs there. What I don't know is whether Miller is willing to endure a siege (which is actually a pretty weak one since I'm going to be very short of supplies myself) or whether he'll move out or fight.

China: Given the power of massed artillery, which continues to be prevalent in our game, I requested a further house rule. Miller and I came up with this: he can use an artillery unit per each two divisions (the old rule was one per division). Judging by the first results since imposing the rule it hasn't helped much. Miller is trying to force his way through Changteh and I'm worried about whether I can hold it. Well to the south, I am going to try a sizeable flanking maneuver against the Japanese units besieging Liuchoa.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/18/2010 2:53:21 PM >

(in reply to Grollub)
Post #: 682
RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/18/2010 9:20:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/16/43 to 3/19/43
 
NoPac:  The quiet continued, thus allowing the Allied CL/DD force to scoot from Para to Attu, replenish, and return to Para.  No Japanese carriers, no combat ships, no air raids.  Just persistent patroling followed by a SigInt that part of 33rd Division is on a Maru heading for Onnekotan Jima.  So I would expect the Japanese to arrive en masse - transports, combat ships, carriers, and LBA in one big package.  The Allies don't have enough to stop the Japanese from arriving.  Here's how things play out, I believe:

1.  With 250 AV, two CD, and three artillery units at Onnekotan, the Japanese should have trouble coming ashore in good shape (that's the way it's supposed to work, anyhow).  So the Japanese probably need to land considerably more than 500 AV.  This should pose some problems for Miller and hopefully things will not go as well as he hopes. 
2.  With 1050 AV, two CD, and two artillery units at Paramushiro, the Japanese would have to bring several thousand AV to have any chance of taking the island within a reasonable time frame.  Getting ashore should be difficult and getting together this kind of force and the needed ships will tax Japanese logistics capability.  I doubt the Japanese can mount anything this big in the near future - maybe ever.
3.  The Allies have two slow BBs in the region - but pushing them from the Aleutians to Para is going to be a roll of the dice.  If I time it to coincide with the appearance of the KB I'm going to be hurting.
4.  By around April 10 the Allies should have Wasp, Saratoga, Victorious, eight CVEs, and BBs Massachusetts and South Dakota available.
5.  By July, the Allies add four fleet carriers.  If, at that point, the strategic carrier balance hasn't shifted (IE, if I haven't lost carriers without claiming an equal number), the Allies should be able to use those carriers to shut down Japanese offensive capability.  Those carriers probably can't make it to NoPac until the end of July at the earliest.  So, my job is to try to hold Para (and Onne if possible) until the cavalry arrives.

SWPac:  If Miller strips the DEI of carriers to support his NoPac campaign, the Allies will be ready to move forward.  With two BBs, three good combat TFs, and plenty of transports and troops at Darwin, the Allies can seize some of the bases out in no-man's land.  If Miller keeps the Mini-KB in the DEI, I'll be far more cautious.

Burma:  No sign of Miller moving anything at Akyab although he's surrounded.

China:  Miller continues to reinforce Changteh, but a new Chinese unit just arrived. 

1943:  This is the year for attrition.  The Japanese remain strong, so any advance by the Allies will be bloody and difficult (usually).  This year is all about whittling down Japanese strength through air and sea battles that, ideally, should exact a toll at least as high as that paid.  I really don't think it matters all that much where these attrition zones are located - whether it's Darwin or Lautem or Bali or Kendari (or Port Moresby, Lunga, etc.), the objective is the same.  If successful in attriting the enemy, the Allies will then be able to assert themselves in 1944 and move forward fairly rapidly, bypassing some of the bases that are too strongly defended.  By taking the two islands in the Kuriles and establishing a strong offensive position at Darwin/Saumlaki/Merauke, the Allies have established the necessary attrition zones - now it's time to attrit!

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/18/2010 9:21:24 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 683
RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/18/2010 9:25:15 PM   
Smeulders

 

Posts: 1879
Joined: 8/9/2009
Status: offline 		I'd say you've done a fair bit of that already. 1/3rd of the Japanese battleships at the bottom is a real blow to his surface strength and the balance there will just keep on switching in your favour. Congrats on the operation, I thought attacking that close to the Home Islands would put him in a good position to strike back fast, but you seem to have overwhelmed him, I'm interested in how this turns out.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 684
RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/18/2010 9:34:48 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		If he's landing a full division on Paramushiro or Onitwhatever without prep in the face of heavy enemy resistance, he's nuts.

The days of freebie amphibious landings for the Japs are over. Combine that with stiff resistance from well-supplied allied units, CD guns, poor preparation (Japs need >75 prep points to avoid major disruption) and (likely) subpar landing ships and you've got a bonafide way to cripple a division, beach them and have them counterattacked into oblivion. Attrition writ large!

Any chance you can bump up your land forces on Onitwhatever? Air transport? If you're only holding one of the Kuriles you will be open to neutralization were he to take multiple bases in the area to counter your threat.

Where are your subs around N. Japan? I'd have them sea North of Osaka for early warning. His supply / resource routes from Sakhalin and Hokkaido are quite sensitive too-might be worth poking at now that you have functional torpedoes.

_____________________________


(in reply to Smeulders)
Post #: 685
RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/18/2010 10:03:59 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I've got a Coronado unit at Onnekotan.  It lets me patrol as far as the northern tip of Honshu (the city of Ominato).  I also have subs - including one that picked off an LSD near Etorufu in the southern Kuriles.  Most of the subs are in the waters south of Hokkaido.

All my troops on Para are 100% prepped.  Most of the troops on Onne are 100% prepped (with the exception of the few that were originally slated for another island).

I can't reinforce Onne in any meaninful way at this point.

I don't know how close that Maru carrying part of 33rd Division was - it might be at Ominato or it might be in the Philippines.

Supplying my position is going to be a challenge, but I'm okay at the moment.

It's going to be interesting and very challenging, but I'd rather be in this position than in Miller's.  Chickenboy is right - desperation invasions by unprepped troops are a recipe for disaster.  Too, Miller's had some issues with transports since the Allied carrier raid in the DEI early in the game.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 686
RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/18/2010 11:01:05 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've got a Coronado unit at Onnekotan.  It lets me patrol as far as the northern tip of Honshu (the city of Ominato).  I also have subs - including one that picked off an LSD near Etorufu in the southern Kuriles.  Most of the subs are in the waters south of Hokkaido.

All my troops on Para are 100% prepped.  Most of the troops on Onne are 100% prepped (with the exception of the few that were originally slated for another island).

I can't reinforce Onne in any meaninful way at this point.

I don't know how close that Maru carrying part of 33rd Division was - it might be at Ominato or it might be in the Philippines.

Supplying my position is going to be a challenge, but I'm okay at the moment.

It's going to be interesting and very challenging, but I'd rather be in this position than in Miller's.  Chickenboy is right - desperation invasions by unprepped troops are a recipe for disaster.  Too, Miller's had some issues with transports since the Allied carrier raid in the DEI early in the game.

You nailed an LSD in the southern Kuriles? Heh...that's about half of the amphibious ships that the IJN gets. He really doesn't have many. Greasing something as significant as an LSD is a very very good thing for your troops in the Kuriles.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 687
RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/19/2010 2:45:04 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I can't reinforce Onne in any meaninful way at this point.

Supplying my position is going to be a challenge, but I'm okay at the moment.

It's going to be interesting and very challenging, but I'd rather be in this position than in Miller's.  Chickenboy is right - desperation invasions by unprepped troops are a recipe for disaster.  Too, Miller's had some issues with transports since the Allied carrier raid in the DEI early in the game.


You know I was going to suggest the subs.
Seems as if you have that in hand, although more is better.

Can you run an air bridge to get more Seabees in there, hopping down the Aleutians? Maybe won't work by air with equipment, but anything to get forts to 4 or more would help out the CD units a lot on defense. Don't recall what you have in the way of non-combat-engineers already, and forts eat supply, but it might be worth the risk of even shooting them in there on ships. You get huge numbers of Seabees--whole regiments plus more battalions--in the summer of 1943. You can lose some now to make sure this was all worth it.


_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 688
RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/19/2010 2:49:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/20/43 and 3/21/43
 
Kuriles:  I have had several base forces and four SeaBee units prepositioned at Attu and Adak Islands, but it's going to be nearly impossible to sneak them into Para for awhile.  The KB has shown up west of Attu and sank an LST supply convoy.  Fortunately, it missed sighting the heavily damaged BB Oklahoma and a small combat TF (BB West Virginia and an escort DD).  I'm going to try to sneak WVa into Para, and I've re-routed Okla due north into the Bering Sea, but either or both can become victims depending upon which course the KB takes from here.  American subs picked off several more transports around Hokkaido and the Kuriles.  Still no appearance of amphibious forces, combat ships, or strikes by LBA.  The Allies have held the islands for nearly three weeks now.  So far, so good. 

Reinforcements:  CV Victorious/BB Massachusetts TF is north of Pearl and heading to Prince Rupert where it will rendezvous with the CVEs.  CVs Wasp and Saratoga and BB South Dakota will arrive at Pago Pago tomorrow; from there they head to Pearl Harbor.  Why weren't these ships in NoPac already?  They've been around Oz and the DEI the entire war and have recently been participating in the DEI action (they air squadrons had been moved to Darwin while the precious carriers remained at Sydney).  I probably don't want to commit my carriers in NoPac until signficant reinforcements arrive by summer, but I would like them in the periphery to act if a need or opportunity arises.

SWPac:  Pretty quiet here.  I assume, but I'm not positive, that the Mini-KB and some BBs remain down here.  The island off Darwin should reach level one airfield and port in two days.  I'll station fighters there and that will help me begin to nose around a bit.  I want to get supplies to Saumlaki.

Burma:  Still nothing happening at Akyab.  I think Miller is flying in supplies.  I tried LRCAP but my P-40Ks got chewed up.  We'll continue to nibble around Akyab while keeping it isolated.  My Royal Sovereign bombardment TF is retiring to Trincomalee to re-supply.  I'll use it for several bombardment missions when it returns.

China:  The Japanese tried a 1:3 deliberate attack at Chengtah and lost 15K to 7K, though the Allies lost far more non-combat squads than did the attackers.  This is more evidence that the combat model in China has some really rough edges.  I think the developers concentrated on island battles in the Pacific in developing the combat model and then hoped it would work in China. 

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 689
RE: Just Total Carnage - 1/19/2010 8:36:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/22/43 to 3/25/43
 
NoPac:  Storm clouds are gathering - lots of ships seen just south of Hokkaido, but thus far the "False Peace" at Para and Onne continues.  The KB withdrew from it's blocking position west of Attu.  Subs finished off BBs Oklahoma and Tennessee (both were escorted, but the escorts didn't do a thing; that three damaged American BBs I've lost in the games to subs; and at least four RN BBs have been damaged by subs; I'm tellin' ya, subs are "Nucelar" in my game even if they aren't in anybody else's).

Onnekotan:  Just went to level one airfield and hosting a fighter squadron.  I've shut down airfield work to concentrate on forts, which are level two plus about 50%.  Two PT squadrons protect this port.

Paramushiro:  Will soon go to level two port (I'll then shut down that construction), but lagging on going to level five airfield (it's about 40% of the way).  Forts will reach level three tomorrow.  Supplies here and at Onnekotan are going to be problematic pretty soon.  I think I hope that Miller tries his counter-invasion sooner rather than later, so that my guys will have some supplies.  I've gotten SigInt that he's reinforcing some of the nearby bases like Shikuka and Sapporo, but I also had SigInt that part of 33rd Div. was on a Maru heading to Onnekotan.  So I think he's coming hard and soon.

Reinforcments:  CV Victorious and BB Mass. arrive at Prince Rupert tomorrow.  CVs Wasp and Saratoga and BB South Dakota are well north of Pago Pago on their way to Pearl.

Damaged Ships:  BBs Colorado and Indiana both reached Seattle and are in the shipyard.  They'll be available in less than two months.  BBs North Carolina and Revenge are north of Pago Pago and heading for either Alameda or Seattle.  Once they reach a shipyard repairs should take two months.

SoPac:   I have a small unit aboard AKLs heading north from Savaii toward Baker Island.  I'll recon Baker in a few days.  If it's occupied I'll abort the landings.

SWPac:  Bathhurst Island (a hex west of Darwin) just went to level 1/1 port/airfield.  The arifield can go to level eight.  It has a Kittyhawk squadron flying CAP now, which will help protect Darwin.  Massive troops influx into Australia - including lots of Brit units from India and American units that were formerly on the West Coast or at Auckland.  These units are heading to Darwin.  Once the Allies are "ready" to move forward into the DEI, they'll have a huge supply of troops to feed into the advance.  Saumlaki is the key.  Miller bombs it every turn and has wiped out supplies, airfield, etc.  I occassionally hit his airfield (Ambon) but don't have quite the oomph to shut it down yet.  I'm working on things.

Akyab:  Miller sent an armored unit due north of Akyab to feel out my stack. It was a river crossing and he learned that a solo armored unit doesn't do well against 1600 AV.  I think he'll now move east, where I have 500 AV in a wooded hex.  I'll reinforce that hex with some of the 1600 AV.  This began as an attempt to bluff Miller into thinking he's got problems at Akyab and it may work yet.

China:  Both sides keep reinforcing Changteh.  Miller has drawn down troops from Changsha for that purpose, so I do the same thing - but for me it's a three day journey from their to Changteh; for Miller it's probably ten days or more.  I still don't think he can win this battle.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 690
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