Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002 From: Northwestern Georgia, USA Status: offline
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4/27/43 and 4/28/43 I've reached an interesting and very delicate stage of the game. The Allies are in the position they need to be in to travel down the road to victory as long as I don't get careless with my carriers. DEI: The Japanese indeed appear to be withdrawing from Taberfane, a major concession that will cede control of the eastern DEI to the Allies. This, in my opinion, is a major mistake. At the same time, the Japanese are reinforcing Timor, which at this point is largely irrelevant. Another major mistake. The Allies will bypass Timor, their main vector of attack lying to the north and west. At this point Miller needs to be concentrating on bases much further to the rear - Morotai, Kendari, Soerabaja and the like - rather than sending 4th Div. to Lautem and Imperial Guards to Ambon. These bases will be bypassed and then Miller will have to extract forward units from under the nose of Allied LBA. The most difficult and dangerous period for the Allies was the move out of Darwin - getting a solid lodgement somewhere to the west is difficult in '43 when facing the full might of the Japanese military. Miller committed "his full might" and totally stopped the Allies and rolled them back. But then he stripped the DEI to meet the emergency at Paramushiro. Now the Allies have a string of bases - Babar, Saumalki, Kai-Eilanden, and Aru (plus soon Taberfane) that can all be built to level four port and seven or eight airfield. In addition, there's a dot hex on New Guinea's southwest coast (Kai-something) that can be built to level five/eight. It will take a few weeks to get these airfields up to a level (say four or more) to support heavy bombers, but when that happens the Allies can assert themselves deep into the DEI and will also be able to advance to the next bases, like Boela and Babo, under cover of nearby LBA. The Allies will be able to move steadily forward through the Moluccas, then the Celebes, and then on to Borneo or the Philippines. Now that the Allies are firmly established at bases that give them good access to the rest of the DEI, I doubt there's anything that can stop them. The going will be slow - it takes time to build up dot hexes to level four or five or six airfields - but they have time and engineers. The only thing that would really slow down them would be to lose carriers and allow the KB unopposed access to the DEI. NoPac: For these reasons, Paramushiro is not as strategically critical as it was. I still want to hold it, I'm still trying to get supplies there, and I will use my carriers in the area, but I will try to remain most cautious and not expose my fleet carriers to the KB. The Allies will win the war sooner with Paramushiro and will be fine without Parmushiro as long as the fleet carriers are okay. So I need to be very careful. There's been no sign of the KB in weeks, but I "assume" it is docked in northern Japan, perhaps upgrading. One thing's for sure, Miller will use them when he comes for Paramushiro, which I expect to happen in May. Burma: In the ghost war, the Allied strategy of advancing troops toward Rangoon, with those troops beating drums and banging sticks together, seems to be working. The Japanese appear to have withdrawn from Lashio, Schwebo, and Myitkina, and may even be pulling back from Mandalay and Meiktila. Since the Allies don't have enough oomph to go anywhere in this region, this is pretty remarkable. All the British units were pulled out of the theater several months ago, took the rail to Bombay, embarked on ships for Australia, unloaded at Perth, took the rail to Alice Springs, and then marched (or are still marching) to Darwin. So it seems the Allies are about to conquer much of Burma with nearly all of their best CBI units in Oz. China: The overwhelming Chinese stack south of Liuchow/Kwilein (3000+ AV) attacked the small Japanese stack (400 AV). The odds? 1:2. The Chinese stink.
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/28/2010 2:56:03 PM >
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