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These are the Voyages.... - 2/21/2010 10:40:35 PM   
Canoerebel


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While awaiting for the D-Day results, here are some summaries of the "tours of duty" for various units/ships in the game:

1)  108th Indian Brigade:  began in Malaya, got cut off from Singapore, air evacuated to Sumatra, evacuated by sea to Ceylon, was to take part in the aborted invasion of Port Blair, and has served garrison duty in Hyderabad since early '42.

2)  CA San Francisco:  badly damaged in the Japanese sneak attack at Pearl Harbor, this ship underwent repairs at Pearl and then took part in the wild fighting around Paramushiro Jima.  She's currently attached as an escort to a CVE TF.

3)  BB West Virginia:  badly damaged in the Pearl Harbor attack, during the late summer of '42 she made for the yards at Alameda.  Escorted by four DDs, Japanese submarines off the coast picked her off.

4)  BB Ramillies:  Took unbelievable damage during the aborted invasion of Port Blair and was torpedoed trying to make the yards in Ceylon. Somehow she made Madras where she remained for more than a year.  Finally, she went to the yards at Colombo.  The repairs were recently completed and she's currently on her way to Perth.  She'll become part of the Allied force in the DEI.

5)  41st U.S. Infantry Division:  She was lifted post-haste from San Diego to Noumea at the start of the war.  AP Queen Elizabeth carried the first cadre, but was too large to unload, so she diverted to Auckland.  41st remained at Noumea for well over a year.  Recently she moved to Darwin where she's prepping for Sorong.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/21/2010 10:49:44 PM   
Canoerebel


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I've got to run, but it looks like the invasion is the real turning point of the war.  It appears that the Japanese navy is shredded - Miller committed his remaining BBs and all or nearly all of them took heavy damage.  I'm guessing at least two to four will go down.  Several CAs also took heavy damage.  The landings went without a hitch - 650 AV ashore.  The defense is 150 AV and shouldn't last long.

Miller's email summary:  "An awful turn for me, but it could have been worse........."  I won't be able to view the turn file until tomorrow so I'm not sure what the "could have been worse" is referring to.

A great victory for the Allies.

I'll post details later. 

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Post #: 992
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/22/2010 12:54:10 AM   
Canoerebel


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The hits scored against the IJN:

BB Nagato:  2 T / 0 B
BB Mutsu:  2 T / 5 B
BB Ise:  4 T / 7 B (sunk)
BB Hyuga:  5 T / 1 B (sunk)
BB Yamato:  3 T / 0 B
BB Yamashiro:  0 T / 3 B
BB Fuso:  0 T / 1 B
CA Myoko:  1 T / 0 B
CA Kumano: 1 T / 0 B
CA Mogami:  2 T / 0 B
CA Mikuma:  3 T / 0 B
CL Agano: 0 T / 1 B

There were 26 Zero and Tojo flying CAP - woefully inadequate.  I don't yet know what happened as I haven't viewed the actual combat replay.  I'll have to ask Miller what happened to lead a massive force into the teeth of a massive carrier force without adequate CAP.

No Allied combat ships suffered any damage (a minor miracle given the number of subs in the area).  Two AKs were sunk by subs during the two-day turn.

I see what Miller meant about "it could have been worse" though.  He lost two BBs but might have lost quite a few more had some of the initial strikes had some success.  When I first began reading the combat report I was disheartened by the missions going in with no hits:

1.  17 F4F, 21 TBF - no hits.
2.  29 F4F, 18 F6F, 32 Hellcats, 29 SBD-5, 9 TBF - one bomb hit on CL Agano
3.  28 F6F, 33 SBD-5, 18 TBF - no hits.
4.  2 Marletts, 18 F6F, 18 TBF - no hits.
5.  18 TBF - no hits.
6.  Hits commenced beginning with the sixth strike.

While much of the IJN can repair given time, this should neuter the Japanese Navy in the DEI for awhile, making Allied ship movements much more secure.  The Japanese have thus far lost six BBs in the game and probably have one or two that are seaworthy (Musashi and Fuso).  The Allies have a bunch:  Massachusetts, South Dakota, Indiana, North Carolina, Maryland, Colorado, Prince of Wales, Royal Sovereign, Revenge, Ramilles, and one other are in or nearing the DEI. 

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/22/2010 1:14:39 AM >

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/22/2010 3:09:29 AM   
John 3rd


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Damn.  This victory shall certainly open up your campaign there in a big way.  After seeing your CV Air, I doubt if he'll commit his CVs unless he has a BUNCH of LBA.  Considering the lack of CAP over those BBs it doesn't APPEAR that there are very many planes available for him to work with.  He should consider himself darned lucky looking at those strike results...


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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/22/2010 3:23:43 PM   
Canoerebel


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9/4/43 to 9/7/43
 
Battle of the Ceram Sea:  As summarized above this was a great victory for the Allies.  The Japanese combat fleet is crippled for awhile though I think just two BBs (Hyuga and Ise) and possibly one CA went down (Miller says he lost three BBs - Mutsu would be the third).  Most of the rest of the Japanese BBs will be in the shop at least for a few months, giving the Allies combat ship superiority in the DEI during that interval.  The cost to Allied carrier air was pretty steep, though, which will prevent the Allies from getting too frisky.  On the day the Allies lost 211 aircraft (56 a-2-a, 0 field, 91 flak, 64 ops) while the Japanese lost 80 (and most of those were Jakes on naval search). 

What's Next:  This was a complicated question:  Pursue the crippled Japanese combat ships?  Move further into the Banda Sea to hit Kendari?  Move north into the Ceram Sea to hit any reinforcement convoys moving to Morotai?  Given the attrition to the carrier squadrons and the main priority of furthering Allied invasions, I elected to keep the carriers in place - they'll move one hex east and continue to provide cover for the ships at Boela.

Operation Fort Donelson:  These landings went remarkably well.  I'm not used to my troops getting ashore in good shape (Parmushiro, Baker Island, Makin Island being three examples).  For those of you looking for useful info:  the three British brigades are 100% prepped for Boela and came ashore untouched by disruption.  The US Infantry Division is just 35% prepped for Boela and is 1/3rd disrupted.  'Nuff said.  The Allies will try a deliberate attack tomorrow - it'll be about 600 AV against about 150 AV (a Japanese garrison unit).  The attack will be preceeded by a naval bombardment.

Operation Fort Henry:  Another decision - should the next invasion target what I think is the lightly held, but more advanced and exposed, Morotai, or should I stick with the plan to hit the heavily defended Sorong, which is closer to Allied bases.  I gave this alot of thought and dediced to go with Sorong.  41st Division will begin loading, but I'll have to wait for some of the Boela transports to return to Darwin to load the rest.

What Went Wrong for the Japanese:  The Japanese combat ships were four hexes north of Boela and four hexes west of Sorong.  Miller said he expected me to hit Sorong.  I think he expected his ships to react to the Allied ships whichever beach I hit, but I don't think combat ships will react unless they are in a home port.  It might have been better for him this way, though.  Had he tangled with the Allied combat ships at Boela all of his cripples would have been withing range of Allied carriers and the damage might have been considerably greater.  Also, at least three Allied TBFs scored "hit but no explosion" vs. Japanese BBs.  So, while the damage to the IJN was great it might have been greater.

Kendari:  The B-24 raid against Kendari scored four more hits against the crippled CA Takao.

Ambon:  Once the Allies secure Boela, Ambon should cease to be a viable base for the Japanese.

Sorong:  Once the Allies secure Sorong, Morotai should cease to be a vialbe base for the Japanese.  Also, the Allies will then have "broken through" the DEI and will have a port on the Pacific Ocean.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/22/2010 3:52:09 PM   
Canoerebel


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Map of the Battle of the Ceram Sea:




Attachment (1)

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/22/2010 4:12:00 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I see what Miller meant about "it could have been worse" though.  He lost two BBs but might have lost quite a few more had some of the initial strikes had some success.  When I first began reading the combat report I was disheartened by the missions going in with no hits:



I wonder if his comment means he DID have CVs close by, but they didn't fly (low CAP) and you also didn't find them? What's the weather doing?

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/22/2010 4:22:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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Good question and something I've been mulling over:  What if Miller looses his carriers on mine now that I've lost nearly 200 in the attacks on his combat ships?

I don't *think* he had carriers close by given the big losses in carrier air he suffered awhile back.  While I have my carrier aircraft set to max range six, which limits my search coverage a bit, but I also have good patrol squadrons at Saumlaki and Babar islands which covers most of this part of the DEI.

Out of an abundance of caution, though, I pulled my carriers back just a bit to get them closer to the land-based fighters at Babo, Kaimana, and Kai-eilenden.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/22/2010 4:39:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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Well, Bullwinkle was right.  Miller did send his carriers into the fray, but the results weren't what either expected. First, I wasn't expecting him to commit his carriers.  Second, his carriers mainly launched fighters and just a few dozen Kates over two days.  Third, the six-hex limit I placed on my carrier aircraft prevented any Allied strikes (probably a good thing given how tuckered they were from the prior two days).  Fourth, his aircraft were targeting the transports at Boela, not the carriers just to the south.

Overall, this was much ado about nothing - Miller probably lost a goodly number of aircraft (Netties and Francis bombers were roughed up).  I'd say he lost 10:1 in numbers of aircraft.

The bad news is that all this fighting will wear out the Allied carrier squadrons.  The good news is that Boela fell easily, meaning nearly all the ships can return to Darwin to refuel, resupply, and prepare for the invasion of Sorong.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/22/2010 6:59:38 PM   
Canoerebel


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9/8/43 to 9/9/43
 
Battle of the Ceram Sea:  Miller suprised me (but not Bullwinkle) by sending in his carriers - sightings included Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Hiryu, Ryujo, Hiyo, Hosho, Taiho, Unryu, Amagi, Chuyoda, Nisshin, and Mizwho.  They took station just north of Ambon.  Miller said that only 10% of his strike aircraft sortied for reasons unknown.  A combination of Japanese carrier- and land-based air targeted the Allied transports unloading at Boela, but did little damage.  CAP was provided by Allied carriers and LBA.  Two AKs were hit.  In return, the Allies downed 240 aircraft (200 a-2-a, 5 field, 4 flak, 31 ops) at a cost of 122 (88 a-2-a, 0 field, 2 flak, 32 ops). 

Battle of Boela:  The Allies claim Boela on the first try.  This is important because the level two airfield is in good shape.  With 140 base force capability ashore, the Allies have moved two P-40 squadrons to this base.  Operation Fort Donelson concludes - perhaps the best invasion I've managed to put together in my WitP/AE days.  Very light losses, punished the enemy (thanks in no small part to Miller's misfortunes in orchestrating his attacks), and the airfield is already operational.

What's Next:  The combat TFs, carrier TFs, and all transports that aren't carrying troops shall retire to Darwin to replenish.  A handful of troops transports will continue unloading.  (Miller just advised that his carriers remained on station, so if they launch everything they have they'll take out that handful of transports, but at some cost since there should be a good bit of CAP).

Operation Fort Henry:  The Sorong invasion troops are loading at Darwin.  I had a big force already 100% prepped, but when Miller reinforced Sorong I added more - many of these are only lightly prepped.  I'm loading the high prep troops first.  Then, if there is additional space, I'll add some of the lower prep troops.  Those troops loading at the moment:  41st Infantry Division; 2nd and 29th Aussie Brigades; 10 and 15 Marine CD; 3rd Marine Raiders; 2nd Jungle Arty; 2nd Medium Arty; 226 Field Arty; 2nd Royal Tanks.  Total AV:  740.  The low prep troops that may join the operation amount to another 400 AV.  It's clear, now, that Miller is willing to throw everything he has at to halt this advance.  I understand why - he must feel that he's never going to have better odds.  But with the Allied bases in the area to compliment the carriers I think the Allies are likely to win the coming battle.  (P.S.  CV Wasp will join her comrades at Darwin within the week).

Operation Island Number 10:  Recon shows Japanese torops landing at Morotai (this had been anticipated as a result of good SigInt).  I think these are the first troops to come ashore at Morotai, so it's not going to have much in the way of forts.  I think Miller's too late to really get this base in shape.


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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/22/2010 8:31:28 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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He certainly is throwing it all into the pot. That's a mess of carriers. The war at sea could essentially be over in 90-120 days . . .

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/22/2010 9:50:48 PM   
Canoerebel


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You're right.

I felt all along that this move would trigger a violent reaction, but it's exceeded what I expected.

I'm worried because Allied LBA performs miserably against Japanese LBA.  Looking at a map it's going to be VERY interesting trying to approach Sorong.  Narrow passages, not much sea room, easy for forces to get mixed up, easy for Miller to slip combat and carrier TFs in from the northwest. 

I have some thinking to do - do I plow straight into Sorong or should I create a "mock invasion force," send it in along with a stout combat force, and have the carriers and real invasion force lagging behind near the Allied base at Babo?  That's my early plan, but I have a few days to think it over.

Meantime, I'm standing down my carrier-based air to let them rest and replenish.  The invasion force is about ready to sail - I expect all ships to embark in no more than five days.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 1:43:20 PM   
Canoerebel


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9/10/43 and 9/11/43
 
DEI:  The Allied carriers have replenished at Darwin and all of the Fort Henry (invasion of Sorong) troops are loaded.  All of these ships will move offshore over these next two days, hoping to remain "invisible" amongst the mass of Allied shipping and LBA scattered around the islands north of Darwin.  I have some really tough decisions to make.  Any advice or comments will be welcome:

1)  Not all carrier TBF squadrons were able to rearm with torpedoes.  I *think* Darwin must've run out even though it is a level six port with 300k+ supplies?  I have two Naval Air HQs with 100 torpedo ordinance at Boela.  If I "drop by" or sail close by will my Avengers re-supply?  This is the "easy" question.

2)  It is clear now that Miller intends to throw everything at the Allies until either he runs out or stops the Allies.  He can accomplish the latter if he decimates my transport TFs; he can slow me considerably if he wins a decisive carrier battle.  I should be able to win any surface combat battle.  As for carrier battles, the Allies should be able to at least exact a draw unless a battle takes place fairly deep in enemy territory. 

3) Miller appears to have a "hair trigger" mentality at this point - any Allied move will be met violently.  Given that should I try to orchestrate a decisive battle in less "remote" territory than an invasion of Sorong entails?  IE, should I try to create the appearance of a move on Ambon (much closer to friendly bases), seeking some kind of all-out combat/carrier clash?

4)  Or should I lunge at Sorong as fast as possible?  I think Miller retired his carriers and combat ships to Davao.  They can return pretty quickly, but I don't think he can get to Sorong as fast as I can (my ships are already on the way, though they aren't going far over the next two days).  I *think* I can get my transports and combat ships to Sorong before Miller can, but there will be a big air/sea battle.  Sorong is fairly distant from friendly territory and the very restricted waters there will be ripe for subs and combat ship interdictions.  This could get very messy very fast.

5)  CV Wasp and BB Washington will arrive in time to join whatever expedition ensues.

6)  Miller's damaged capital ships from the Battle of Ceram Sea retired to Ternate.  My B-24s took a stab at them and managed one hit on BB Nagato.  I could try a carrier strike against Ternate.  Using two-day turns, I might be able to sneak in, strike, and sneak out before Miller could react.  However, he might anticipate this and withdraw his damaged ships, or he might insert his carriers to give decisive battle in an area that wouldn't be great for the Allies.  Also, a successful strike would attrit my carrier squadrons so that I would have to retire to Darwin again to re-supply, meaning any invasion would be postponed.

7)  Or, I can kind of back off a bit and begin prepping troops for big bases that are right on the periphery of Allied controlled air space.  Lautem and Ambon are both much easier targets now.  The downside is that I have big armies prepped for Sorong, Morotai, Manado, and Ternate.  I'd have to start from scratch to prep for other targets (well, the Boela troops just began prepping for Ambon, but it'll be two months before they'd be ready to go).

At the moment I'm leaning toward just going at Sorong with everything I have, but I'll re-evaluate over the next turns as SigInt and Recon shed any further light on where Miller's ships might be.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 4:10:18 PM   
Canoerebel


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Posted below is a map of the eastern DEI as of 9/9/43. A few points:

1) The Allies should be able to close down the airfields at Ambon and Sorong. If so, this limits Japanese LBA to nearby fields at Ternate, Namlea, and Manado (and more distance fields like Loewock, Kendari, Pelelieu and Babeldaob, which are all 13 or more hexes distant).

2) The Allies have two level two airfields (Boela and Babo) just four hexes from Sorong. Kaimana, a level five airfield, is six hexes south.

3) Soerabaja is the only Japanese port anywhere in the vicinity of size six or greater. Even Davao is just a level three. But Miller probably has AKE, AE, AD support at either Manado or Davao.

4) I'm still leaning toward an immediate move on Sorong.




Attachment (1)

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 5:27:54 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/10/43 and 9/11/43
 
DEI:  The Allied carriers have replenished at Darwin and all of the Fort Henry (invasion of Sorong) troops are loaded.  All of these ships will move offshore over these next two days, hoping to remain "invisible" amongst the mass of Allied shipping and LBA scattered around the islands north of Darwin.  I have some really tough decisions to make.  Any advice or comments will be welcome:

1)  Not all carrier TBF squadrons were able to rearm with torpedoes.  I *think* Darwin must've run out even though it is a level six port with 300k+ supplies?  I have two Naval Air HQs with 100 torpedo ordinance at Boela.  If I "drop by" or sail close by will my Avengers re-supply?  This is the "easy" question.

2)  It is clear now that Miller intends to throw everything at the Allies until either he runs out or stops the Allies.  He can accomplish the latter if he decimates my transport TFs; he can slow me considerably if he wins a decisive carrier battle.  I should be able to win any surface combat battle.  As for carrier battles, the Allies should be able to at least exact a draw unless a battle takes place fairly deep in enemy territory. 

3) Miller appears to have a "hair trigger" mentality at this point - any Allied move will be met violently.  Given that should I try to orchestrate a decisive battle in less "remote" territory than an invasion of Sorong entails?  IE, should I try to create the appearance of a move on Ambon (much closer to friendly bases), seeking some kind of all-out combat/carrier clash?

4)  Or should I lunge at Sorong as fast as possible?  I think Miller retired his carriers and combat ships to Davao.  They can return pretty quickly, but I don't think he can get to Sorong as fast as I can (my ships are already on the way, though they aren't going far over the next two days).  I *think* I can get my transports and combat ships to Sorong before Miller can, but there will be a big air/sea battle.  Sorong is fairly distant from friendly territory and the very restricted waters there will be ripe for subs and combat ship interdictions.  This could get very messy very fast.

5)  CV Wasp and BB Washington will arrive in time to join whatever expedition ensues.

6)  Miller's damaged capital ships from the Battle of Ceram Sea retired to Ternate.  My B-24s took a stab at them and managed one hit on BB Nagato.  I could try a carrier strike against Ternate.  Using two-day turns, I might be able to sneak in, strike, and sneak out before Miller could react.  However, he might anticipate this and withdraw his damaged ships, or he might insert his carriers to give decisive battle in an area that wouldn't be great for the Allies.  Also, a successful strike would attrit my carrier squadrons so that I would have to retire to Darwin again to re-supply, meaning any invasion would be postponed.

7)  Or, I can kind of back off a bit and begin prepping troops for big bases that are right on the periphery of Allied controlled air space.  Lautem and Ambon are both much easier targets now.  The downside is that I have big armies prepped for Sorong, Morotai, Manado, and Ternate.  I'd have to start from scratch to prep for other targets (well, the Boela troops just began prepping for Ambon, but it'll be two months before they'd be ready to go).

At the moment I'm leaning toward just going at Sorong with everything I have, but I'll re-evaluate over the next turns as SigInt and Recon shed any further light on where Miller's ships might be.


An interesting set of options.

I would certainly wait for Wasp and Washington, which it sounds like you will.

Fuel is his enemy too. I think he had eleven carriers in the last op? Can Davao re-fuel them all, or do it more than once? I think he's going to have windows where he has to send them farther back to re-fuel, adn you could look for those. In a "war of the tankers" I think you win in keeping Darwin topped off. Use your subs on tanker routes into the PI.

I think your strategic land objectives are correct, and you should not look to shunt off to other bases to avoid the main meeting action. You lose prep time, and again, your base objective mix is correct for your strategic plan.

You "might" consider holding off on the invasions a bit, unload the trrops to rest, and seek a decisive carrier battle (again, with Wasp.) You're into the sweet era re CV deliveries, and your Hellcat and Corsair inventories will continue to build. You still have lots and lots of game time. A couple of weeks wait on the ground plan isn't going to matter, and right now he's spoiling for a fight. If you lose it, your LCUs are still safe, and you will get more carriers soon. You have Darwin for emergency float repair (have you put an ARD there?) IOW, cotinue the housekeeping, build supply piles, and dare him to fight. Once 1944 nears I think he's going to get even more antsy about his window of opportunity. You, OTOH, have time on your side.

Re Darwin and torpedoes, I had a five CV TF re-supply there and it took three 1-day turns for all torpedoes to re-load. Don't know if it was Op Points or base size or what, but mine did fill out, just not on the first day. I think I have an AKE there too; don't know if that is a factor with torpedoes. My Darwin is also level 6.

As I get deeper into the game and the invasions get bigger (I'm about to go for Saipan) I'm realizing more and more that the Allies don't have the huge excesses of amphibious infantry they had in WITP. A solid, full TOE and rested infantry division is worth more than an Essex-class IMO. Don't risk your Sorong LCUs. Try to bring him to battle at sea.

And let time be one of your strategic assets. If he's refueling now, he'll have to do it again, and again, and again while you hunt for an engagement. Your idea of a carrier strike at his damaged capital ships sounds like a good first step. You might get lucky, and it's sure to p**s him off.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 7:28:01 PM   
Canoerebel


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Good advice Bullwinkle.  My preference is to proceed with the Sorong invasion, but I see the wisdom in your counsel.  I may pull back, or I may orchestrate a carrier raid on Ternate and a mock invasion of Ambon to keep Miller guessing.

Meantime, I found that I do have about 335 AV at Darwin 100% prepped for Lautem.  I'll see about adding additional troops to the mix.  Lautem has been regularly bombed for six months or more and Miller hasn't ever based aircraft there or managed to build the airfield past level two.  I think the supply situation is a mess.  IE, I doubt the garrision, which includes 4th Division, is in good shape.  It's also ripe for a quick strike given our two day turns and the proximity of my big airfields at Babar and Saumlaki islands.  So in about a month or so, when I'm looking or a quick strike opportunity, Lautem might be it.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 8:07:09 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Good advice Bullwinkle.  My preference is to proceed with the Sorong invasion, but I see the wisdom in your counsel.  I may pull back, or I may orchestrate a carrier raid on Ternate and a mock invasion of Ambon to keep Miller guessing.

Meantime, I found that I do have about 335 AV at Darwin 100% prepped for Lautem.  I'll see about adding additional troops to the mix.  Lautem has been regularly bombed for six months or more and Miller hasn't ever based aircraft there or managed to build the airfield past level two.  I think the supply situation is a mess.  IE, I doubt the garrision, which includes 4th Division, is in good shape.  It's also ripe for a quick strike given our two day turns and the proximity of my big airfields at Babar and Saumlaki islands.  So in about a month or so, when I'm looking or a quick strike opportunity, Lautem might be it.


You have put yourself in a great positon. You have plenty of time and you have a great foothold that won't go away. Right now the ony thing that can do you in is "victory disease"

Actually, I am impressed that you can sustain an offensive with all of the merchant shipping losses you took up north. Goes to show how resiliant the Allies can be. I suppose it would be more difficult to attack in the Central Pacific at this point.



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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 8:14:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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Hmmm, on the one hand the recent carrier engagements seriously attrited Miller's carrier air.  He lost 500+ over Darwin two months ago, then another 200 in the Ceram Sea a week ago.  That seemingly opened a window to strike while he was "down." Too, Miller is vigorously reinforcing his bases.

And yet I see what Bullwinkle and crsutton are saying - why push and take chances at this point?  Right now our forces are as close to parity as they'll be; as time goes on the Allies get stronger.

So, which way do I go?  I may well stand down my transports awhile as I mull these things over.

As for my transport capacity, crsutton, I'm skating very close to the edge.  The massive losses taken at Paramushiro, to subs, and to a lesser extent in various battles throughout the war, have left me with just enough to carry one big invasion at a time.  That's why I stated above that the only way Miller can really stop me now is to decimate my remaining transports (most of which are in the DEI).

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/23/2010 8:19:25 PM >

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 8:49:29 PM   
crsutton


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Yep, the smart tactic for him now might be to build up his carrier aircraft split his carriers up into pairs and just go "araiding" on your sea lanes. With the abililty of surface forces to perform some amazing mid ocean intercepts this makes me more nervous than anything.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 8:58:17 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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My former advice to not out-think yourself and go forth and pound him is tempered by my thinking "do it prudently." Crsutton's use of "victory disease" is perfectly worded. You have the right targets in mind; just protect your troops and do it on your terms.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 9:06:43 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Yep, the smart tactic for him now might be to build up his carrier aircraft split his carriers up into pairs and just go "araiding" on your sea lanes. With the abililty of surface forces to perform some amazing mid ocean intercepts this makes me more nervous than anything.


But does he have fuel, and fuel lift capacity, to go very far raiding? CONUS--Sydney and CT--Perth by now should be locked down tight, "sea-going railroads", and it's fairly easy to move supply around Oz by late 1943, CAP-wise. I'm not sure he can really get to Canoerebels' xAKs on long-haul routes at this point.

If the game were following an historical Mid-Pac advance, then, yes, he could sneak around the Marianas and come onto the pool table to do some damage. But I'm not sure he can with a DEI-first game. Oz is a huge aircraft carrier.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 2/23/2010 9:10:24 PM >


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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 9:28:58 PM   
Canoerebel


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Okay, a roll of the dice...

The Allies fleet carriers are going to raid Ternate.  I don't think Miller has his damaged BBs there any longer, but I believe some of his CAs and other shipping are there.

The fleet carriers will sprint from their current location just north of Darwin to a point six hexes SE of Ternate.  Fighters are set at 50% CAP.  Dive bombers are set at naval strike primary, port strike secondary, with a ten hex limit (matching the extended range of the Hellcats).  TBFs are set at naval strike primary, port strike secondary.  Only a few of the squadrons are carrying torpedoes, the rest bombs.

The "Point Luck" hex is just two or three hexes from the Allied airfield at Boela, and not much further from Babo, so LBA will help provide CAP.

But if Miller picks this moment to send his carriers south of Ternate....

A roll of the dice!

P.S.  I have the Sorong transports heading north, but I won't send them in unless a carrier battle takes place and the Allies emerge in good shape. If the Ternate raid comes off good and there isn't such a carrier clash, the transports will return to Darwin.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 10:01:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ternate Raid:  The raid went off like clockwork, but all of the juicy targets had already departed port.  The Allied carrier aircraft roughed up a dozen or two dozen small craft - mainly xAK and E class - and tangled with the moderate-sized CAP that included squadrons from several carriers (I *assume* these were carriers that had been moved to land bases for some reason).  Mostly, I am very glad that nothing went wrong during the raid.  My carriers will retire and we'll see what happens next.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 10:27:17 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ternate Raid:  The raid went off like clockwork, but all of the juicy targets had already departed port.  The Allied carrier aircraft roughed up a dozen or two dozen small craft - mainly xAK and E class - and tangled with the moderate-sized CAP that included squadrons from several carriers (I *assume* these were carriers that had been moved to land bases for some reason).  Mostly, I am very glad that nothing went wrong during the raid.  My carriers will retire and we'll see what happens next.


Excellent!

At a minimum I think you went against type, your usual slow-and-careful. He has to be thinking he's dealing with a wild man right now, and that you'll deep strike--maybe on Soerbaja, maybe on the PI--at will. Maybe either don't tell him anything in e-mail, or dig the crazy knife in deeper.

Also, interesting aircraft intel. Maybe some of those carriers went home to upgrade, or repair.

Meanwhile (his) time marches on . . .

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/23/2010 10:34:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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Thanks, Bullwinkle.

This is the first "wild and crazy" Allied carrier strike since way back in April 1942 when the combined Allied carrier TFs hit Soerabaja and Semerang and clobbered the KB.  In a crazy instance of misfortune, a bug forced us to replay the turn and the replay was much more even.

You're right; strikes like this one will make Miller much more cautious in the use of his exposed bases.

The final tally of the raid was 15 ships hit:

E class - 7 (bomb hits ranging from two to six)
EW class - 4 (bomb hits ranging from two to five)
xAK class - 4 (6, 3, 3, and 4 hits respectively)

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/24/2010 4:53:40 PM   
Canoerebel


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9/12/43 to 9/15/43
 
The Allies suddenly and dramatically changed direction four days ago - recalling the Sorong invasion force, setting up and executing the raid on Ternate, and recalling all ships to Darwin.  The plan is to stand down for awhile in order to better organize and plan future operations rather than to rush into them and risk a major confrontation on unfavorable terms.

Ternate Raid:  This raid succeeded in damaging or sinking 15 Japanese ships - eleven E class and four xAK.  Strategically, this should make Miller more cautious in utilizing his forward bases and should make him leary of sudden Allied carrier raids. All ships have retired from the raid and are at or near Darwin.

Air Power:  Tactically, the Ternante raid cost the Allies more than 100 aircaft and the Japanese lost less than 25.  Except for air battles over Allied bases or TFs, the Allies are coming out on the short end of air battles.  Sometimes by margins of 10:1 or more.  Allied fighters are *crud* for a complex mixture of reasons.  However, Allied 4EB are effective.  I've shuffled them around to more effectively hit Morotai, Sorong, Ambon, and Lautem.  I want to keep those fields shut down.  I've also gone through most squadrons that are on the front lines to make sure they have good commanders.  I've also posted two big TBF groups in the northeastern DEI (one at Babo and one at Boela) to target any ships that head to Sorong or Ambon.

Ground Troops:  I had troops 100% prepped for distant points - I started them prepping back when the DEI was lightly guarded and it appeared the Allies might advance quickly.  Now that Miller has reinforced heavily, the going will be slower.  So I've re-designated some targets.  Here's the general breakdown:on targets:

Sorong:  Big force ready to go.
Morotai:  Big force ready to go.
Lautem:  Big force - 1/2 100% prepped, the other half just beginning prep.
Ambon:  Big force just beginning to prep.
Manikwari:  Medium-sized force just beginning to prep.

Further to the rear - as far away as the West Coast - troops are also prepping for Balikpan, Samarinda, and the southern Philippines.

Fuel:  This is a limiting factor in the DEI right now, but the Allies are trying to get things straightened out.  The major depots at the moment are Christmas Island, Tahiti, Auckland, and Noumea. 

Japanese Raid Potential:  Given the situation in the Cuttlefish/Q-Ball game, which I know Miller reads, I am worried about Miller orchestrating raids on the Allied LOC.  I am vulnerable to raids, so I am going to take several steps:

a)  Change the current LOC (West Coast to Pago Pago to Noumea) to one that is more secure (West Coast to Tahiti to Auckland/Noumea).

b)  Allies will invade Milne Bay to lessen risk of raids vs. Townsville.  Miller appears to be withdrawing his Milne Bay garrison.  The Allied troops will come from the garrisons at the NE Oz bases.

c)  There is still a risk that Miller could use Kwajalein, Roi, or Majuro to handle raids.  The Allies are building Makin and will invade Mili and Majuro.  An Army division and a Cavalry division at San Diego are prepping for Majuro.  This invasion will utilize CVEs and thus will only take place during a window in which the KB is confirmed far away.

Where Do the Allies Go From Here:  Until they can reduce the KB threat the Allis will have to rely somewhat on stealth and caution.  Here are the plans in the main theaters of operation:

DEI:  I'm nearly positive that the next move will be on Lautem, which has been hammered by Allied air for a year.  Given the two-day turn cycle and the proximity of major Allied bases (Babar and Saumlaki) I'm pretty sure the Allies can achieve surprise.  D-Day perhaps two or three weeks (to give troops time to prep). After that Ambon is a likely target.  After Ambon falls it should be Sorong.

CenPac:  The Allies have troops prepping for Wake and Marcus and will move on these bases sometime in 1944. In the meantime, the Allies will soon move on Ocean Island (west of Tarawa).  The moves on Mili and Majoro should occur before the end of the year.  Once these bases and Milne Bay are taken the Japanese positions at Lunga and vicinity become pretty tenuous.

Burma:  The Allies have paid political points to buy a handful of "wrecked" Chinese units. These troops are on the way to Kunming where they will be airlifted to Burma.  There they should be able to rebuild.  Eventually, the Allies will move on Pegu and Rangoon.

Subs:  Japanese subs have been a little bit less lethal - they are still claiming some AOs and AKs, but the number isn't nearly as ridiculous as they had been.  Allied subs haven't been any more lethal, though they have claimed a few AKs around Sikhalin Island and around the Philippines.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/24/2010 5:02:23 PM >

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/24/2010 5:23:29 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Sounds like a plan.

Refresh my memory--what's up with Port Moresby? Milne sounds good if it's safe.

Re your fighters--how are your P-47s doing? I have mine in Rangoon and they've shreaded the Burma theater. If you haven't you should move them to your frontest of front lines. They can take it.

Re LOC. CT to Perth to Sydney/Darwin is still an option and free from air threat. Subs though. I think there are a couple of huge auto-convoys carrying supplies and fuel only into both CT and Aden in the last quarter of 43.

As I recall the Sept-Dec. 1943 ship queue, you start to get DDs and DEs in blocks of ten several times a month. Those DEs are the best ASW platforms the Allies get I think, a great combo of range and 11 ASW rating. I moved some to Adelaide and several to Colombo, and they've swept the seas in ASW TFs. After Patch 3 they should be even safer from counter-attack.

I know your attention isn't on China, but somewhere in where you are time-wise you get boo coo transports into Ledo and the set-up of The Hump station network. Ledo pulls lots of supply down the railorad in my game, and I'm sending six air units of transports into Chunking every day. Still not moving around China very well, but the supply situation is starting to begin to maybe be OK soon.

It seems weird hisotry-wise for him to have such a powerful hold on Tarawa and environs this late, but yours has been an odd game. I think your plan to encircle his search web is good. Ocean Island is a good choice for a PBY base. It might be big enough to rate a sub tender and some CD as well. I took it as an adjunct to the Tarawa campaign, and haven't needed it much since I have Eniwetok, but it's in a prime locale if you need eyes.

I still don't get why your subs aren't producing more. Mine in Jan. 1944 are terrors. Maybe you should do some limited experiments with patrol zone sizes and shapes? The AI (are you using Auto Sub Ops?) always makes very small, compressed zones, maybe four hexes square. I like to do long, straight, barrier patrol zones, maybe fifteen hexes long, and mix them in with triangles at the chokes.

Anyway, soldier on!

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/24/2010 7:34:54 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Refresh my memory--what's up with Port Moresby? Milne sounds good if it's safe.


PM and Milne were both heavily garrisoned, but Miller has begun withdrawing troops. Milne is important to me because it will help secure Townsville from raiders, but I really don't need PM, though I'll take it if I can do so on the cheep. I use PM for target practice and have long since shut down the airfield.

quote:

Re your fighters--how are your P-47s doing? I have mine in Rangoon and they've shreaded the Burma theater. If you haven't you should move them to your frontest of front lines. They can take it.


My P-47s are adequate - one squadron just had a successful raid at Rangoon. I fiddled around with elevation. At 20k the Thunderbolts got chewed up, but at 44k the reverse. I have three or four squadrons in the DEI, but Miller stopped attacking weeks ago.

quote:

Re LOC. CT to Perth to Sydney/Darwin is still an option and free from air threat. Subs though. I think there are a couple of huge auto-convoys carrying supplies and fuel only into both CT and Aden in the last quarter of 43.


Good idea. I haven't seen a Japanese sub at Perth or Adelaide in at least six months.

quote:

As I recall the Sept-Dec. 1943 ship queue, you start to get DDs and DEs in blocks of ten several times a month. Those DEs are the best ASW platforms the Allies get I think, a great combo of range and 11 ASW rating. I moved some to Adelaide and several to Colombo, and they've swept the seas in ASW TFs. After Patch 3 they should be even safer from counter-attack.


Yes, lots of DEs are arriving. I'm putting them to use, but one TF at Tahiti hasn't done squat while a Japanese sub sank three or four ships.

quote:

I know your attention isn't on China, but somewhere in where you are time-wise you get boo coo transports into Ledo and the set-up of The Hump station network. Ledo pulls lots of supply down the railorad in my game, and I'm sending six air units of transports into Chunking every day. Still not moving around China very well, but the supply situation is starting to begin to maybe be OK soon.


I've had at least six air transport squadrons toting supplies to Chengtu for a year. I'm a little miffed about China. First, Miller destroyed China. There's essentially no way that the Chinese will ever get back into the game. Now he has stood down his troops, and transferred a bunch to the Pacific where they are garrisoning bases like Morotai, Manado, Davao, etc. IE, now that China is no threat the Japanese can use all those troops to advantage in the Pacific. This is why an unbalanced, non-historical war in China is such a threat to the game.

quote:

It seems weird history-wise for him to have such a powerful hold on Tarawa and environs this late, but yours has been an odd game. I think your plan to encircle his search web is good. Ocean Island is a good choice for a PBY base. It might be big enough to rate a sub tender and some CD as well. I took it as an adjunct to the Tarawa campaign, and haven't needed it much since I have Eniwetok, but it's in a prime locale if you need eyes.


He's steadily withdrawing troops from the eastern periphery of his perimeter, but he only has so many transports. Many of them are involved in ferrying troops from China to the DEI (I'm getting lots of SigInt about troops moving to various ports - units that until recently were in China).

quote:

I still don't get why your subs aren't producing more. Mine in Jan. 1944 are terrors. Maybe you should do some limited experiments with patrol zone sizes and shapes? The AI (are you using Auto Sub Ops?) always makes very small, compressed zones, maybe four hexes square. I like to do long, straight, barrier patrol zones, maybe fifteen hexes long, and mix them in with triangles at the chokes.


My subs baffle me. They have good commanders. They are posted in choke points and close to Japan. Yet they have done relatively little in the game.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/24/2010 7:40:08 PM >

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/24/2010 7:38:39 PM   
Canoerebel


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P.S. Just got a turn back and one of the DE at Tahiti was sunk by a Japanese sub.

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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/24/2010 8:57:28 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. Just got a turn back and one of the DE at Tahiti was sunk by a Japanese sub.


Wow.

In my first six days after Patch 3 I had four solid anti-ASW attacks, three off the West Coast. Three missed, and I sank two subs in counter-attack. The fourth hit, but the DE made it into Portland. In the next couple of weeks I had several other anti-ASW attacks, and lost only an AM, with double-digit ASW weapon hits many times. In my game Patch 3 really reversed things.

Re your subs, I wonder if it's the 2-day turns. Is there any other AAR running with 2-days? Without semi-historical sub action the Allies have a 50% harder job I'd say.

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