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RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/24/2010 10:06:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/16/43 to 9/21/43
 
A quiet spell though alot of things are brewing:

DEI:  The Allied carriers are in port at Darwin and have replenished aircraft and pilots.  However, the big CV TBF's have NOT replenished torpedoes.  A Japanese carrier TF of unknown strength showed up just west of Ambon on the 21st - I doubt Miller would come looking for trouble, but we'll see.  The airfields at Boela (Ceram) and Babo (New Guinea) both went to level three.  This will make the invasion of Sorong much easier when the time arrives.  I have spent alot of time re-targeting troops when needed, repositioning aircraft, and sending some DDs back to Sydney to upgrade.  I'll keep this up for awhile.  Allied 4EB are regularly targeting Sorong, Ambon, and Lautem, but for some reason refuse to hit Morotai.

SoPac:  Japanese subs have been causing some trouble around Tahiti and Pago Pago.  My main concern is that Miller might send a stout combat TF to raid one of my major ports - PP, Christmas, Noumea and Townsville cause me the most concern.   Allied engineers just established a level one port at Makin.

Burma:  No Japanese aircraft over Rangoon recently.  I'll keep attacking, though my 4EB are too scarce to accomplish a whole lot.  The air lift of Chinese troops from Kunming to Mandalay has commenced.  This won't be a great deal - perhaps four divisions that can be built out to about 800 AV.  Eventually, the Allies will move on Pegu and Rangoon and we'll see what Miller does.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1021
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/24/2010 11:35:25 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/16/43 to 9/21/43
 
A quiet spell though alot of things are brewing:

DEI:  The Allied carriers are in port at Darwin and have replenished aircraft and pilots.  However, the big CV TBF's have NOT replenished torpedoes.  A Japanese carrier TF of unknown strength showed up just west of Ambon on the 21st - I doubt Miller would come looking for trouble, but we'll see. 


Be careful. He knows they're about from your raid, and Darwin is the most logical re-fueling site. He HAS to sink a few carriers in the next few months.

The torpedo thing is strange.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1022
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/26/2010 2:10:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/22/43 to 9/25/43
 
DEI:  I had a sudden thought yesterday that Miller might try a night-bombing attack on the carriers at Darwin.  Neither of us has used night attacks in the game, so it's the kind of surprise he'd love to spring.  Consequently, I'll continue shuffling my fleet carriers in and out of port.  This serves another purpose - by combining with all the transport TFs it creates lots of traffic so that Miller won't be quite sure when the "real" invasion TFs depart Darwin.  The Lautem invasion will probably take place in a week or ten days - half of the troops are 100% prepped and the other half 20% prepped.  I've also set two fighter squadrons to night ops, though they're low experience.  Some of the USA night fighter squadrons left the West Coast several weeks ago, so security will increase when they arrive.  Miller has a CVE TF operating not far from Ambon.  It's either bait or protecting merchant shipping moving through.  My 4EB regularly target Lautem, Sorong, and Ambon, and occasionally Koepang and Namlea.  For some reason they refuse to hit Morotai.  Also, my carrier TBFs still haven't re-armed with torpedoes even though Darwin is a level six port with 400k supplies.  7th Fleet will arrive in a week or so and perhaps that will help?  Another CVL and BB Alabama will arrive in theater in ten days.

CenPac:  Recon shows Maloelap with 250 aircraft and six units.  I don't want it that bad.  The troops I had prepping for it will switch to Milne Bay.  I still plan to take the more isolated Nauru and Ocean islands, but that'll be it in CenPac for awhile.

SoPac and SWPac:  No sign of Japanese raiders, but I'm quite nervous about the possibility.  Miller will have read about Cuttlefish's moves and Miller is in much the same quandary.  The two most vulnerable ports are Townsville and Pago Pago.  I'm going to post the BB Ramilles TF at Townsville for awhile.  There they'll serve as the strategic reserve for the DEI.  I've also tried to eliminate big backups of unloading tankers and transports at PP and Noumea.  A small CL/DD force is posted at PP.

Plan:  There was quite a lag between the invasion of Boela and the upcoming invasion of Lautem; but after Lautem things move fast as the forces slated for Sorong and Morotai are already fully prepped.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1023
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/26/2010 3:07:09 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline 		You're thinking the right way. The night attack thing probably wouldn't gain him much if anything in the way of damage/sinkings, but it would shake the dice cup. He might try it, but maybe not at Darwin?

I really don't know about the torps. Have you tried disbanding all the CVs, rebuilding one TF at a time with one CV, and trying to load torps into a 1-ship TF? If that doesn't work I'm stumped. 7th Fleet or another major HQ would be my only thought, and you're already doing that. Or an AKE or AE, but I'm still not sure they influence torpedoes.

Re him raiding, etc. Remember, he's a wolverine from now on until he can't walk any more. Expect him to do illogical (from your POV), hasty, seemingly no-thought clawing, trying to just put your hulls out of the war, or at least be sent far away to repair. Every mine he has will be used. Every sub will be on suicidal hex orders. He'll use his CVs with partial air wings. When it's kami time, he'll have those too. You just can't sweat this. The main thing you have to do is protect your LCUs from getting mauled, as you don't have tons of replacement time. You can risk ships easier than men from now on.

I haven't studied the TOE shifts in 1944 much, but I think the soft attack devices get big jumps in a lot of US units (due to flamethrowers maybe?) Something to look at re placing them in the op posture and supply state needed to upgrade the TOEs.

The calm before the storm.

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The Moose

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Post #: 1024
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 2/27/2010 2:57:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/26/43 and 9/27/43
 
DEI:  Japanese Mini-KB remains stationed between Ambon and Kendari.  Lots of Allied ship traffic in and out of Darwin should be creating alot of "noise."  The "mock" invasion force begins loading - a Brit anti-tank unit, a Sea Bee unit, and 1st Marine Raiders.  Some of the real invasion supply ships begin loading.  The mock invasion force, accompanied by the fleet carriers, will move north of Darwin as if Sorong were the target.  After they depart, the real force leaves Darwin for Lautem, which is so near that the Allies should be able to achieve surprise.

Operation Bull Run:  The Lautem invasion force will include about 1450 AV - the main punch provided by 9th Aussie Division, 18th and 25th Aussie Brigades, and 6th and BFF UK Brigades. I believe the opposition consists of 4th Infantry Division.  Lautem is a level two airfield that has been bombed almost every day for nearly a year.  I don't anticipate much in the way of forts, and I think 4th Division shouldn't be in great shape.

Operations Fort Henry and Island Number Ten:  The invasions of Sorong and Morotai should follow fairly quickly assuming the transports and carriers emerge from the Lautem invasion in decent shape.

Operation Perryville:  The invasions of Ocean and Nauru Islands will take place sequentially beginning in about two weeks.  I don't expect opposition.

Operation Five Forks:  The invasion of Milne Bay may be six weeks or more away.  I have diverted so many troop transports to Oz that I'm having trouble bringing forward the two divisions at San Diego.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1025
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 3/1/2010 3:38:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/28/43 and 9/29/43

Operation Bull Run: Operation Bull Run (invasion of Lautem) troops are loading at Darwin. The "mock" invasion force that will move toward Sorong, serving as a diversion, will weigh anchor tomorrow. The Lautem force will weigh anchor in three days. I *think* the combination of proximity (Darwin to Lautem), two-day turns, and mild deception should make this invasion pretty difficult to stop.

Operation Fort Henry: I'm concerned about the likelihood of ambush and mayhem when the Allies undertake Operation Fort Henry (the invasion of Sorong). Take a look at the map below - narrow passages and islands could turn this into a fiasco. Helping matters is the fact that both Boela and Babo airfields are level three. Boela might even go to level four before the invasion takes place.

Operation Island Number Ten: Morotai is more open than Sorong. I will at least consider the possibility of leapfrogging Sorong to head this way. It has the advantage of surprise but the disadvantage of being much closer to a number of Japanese air bases. Just something to mull over.




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Post #: 1026
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 3/1/2010 10:20:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/30/43 and 10/1/43
 
Operation Bull Run:  A long train of TF departs Darwin tonight, all of them heading NE as if Sorong (or possibly Ambon) were the target.  The lead groups include the mock invasion transports plus the fleet carriers and a big combat TF.  The "real" invasion TFs accompanied by another combat TF and the CVE TFs will lag behind, ending the two-day turn just east of Saumlaki - a point eight hexes from Lautem.  The plan will be for all the "real" ships to make for Lautem on the 4th, with D-Day on the 5th.  The Japanese carrier TFs moved out of sight - possibly to Soerabaja to refuel.

Operation Perryville:  Troops destined for Ocean Island began loading on transports at Suva.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1027
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 3/2/2010 12:44:46 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/2/43 and 10/3/43
 
Operation Bull Run:  Everything appears to be set up correctly to initiate the run to Lautem.  D-Day should take place on the 5th.  The entire Japanese navy (all carriers) appears to be stationed just north of Ambon.  I *think* Miller will assume I'm moving on Sorong - or that he'll at least be unsure which of several targets I may pursue.  Allied 4EB focused on Ambon, Namlea, and Sorong to further the appearance that the latter is the target. 

BB Mutsu:  O-19 put a TT into badly damaged BB Mutsu just east of Singapore.  Interesting that Miller sent his damaged BBs that way - probably because so many Allied subs are operating near Manila and the Home Islands.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1028
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 3/2/2010 12:52:41 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

You're thinking the right way. The night attack thing probably wouldn't gain him much if anything in the way of damage/sinkings, but it would shake the dice cup. He might try it, but maybe not at Darwin?

I really don't know about the torps. Have you tried disbanding all the CVs, rebuilding one TF at a time with one CV, and trying to load torps into a 1-ship TF? If that doesn't work I'm stumped. 7th Fleet or another major HQ would be my only thought, and you're already doing that. Or an AKE or AE, but I'm still not sure they influence torpedoes.

Re him raiding, etc. Remember, he's a wolverine from now on until he can't walk any more. Expect him to do illogical (from your POV), hasty, seemingly no-thought clawing, trying to just put your hulls out of the war, or at least be sent far away to repair. Every mine he has will be used. Every sub will be on suicidal hex orders. He'll use his CVs with partial air wings. When it's kami time, he'll have those too. You just can't sweat this. The main thing you have to do is protect your LCUs from getting mauled, as you don't have tons of replacement time. You can risk ships easier than men from now on.

I haven't studied the TOE shifts in 1944 much, but I think the soft attack devices get big jumps in a lot of US units (due to flamethrowers maybe?) Something to look at re placing them in the op posture and supply state needed to upgrade the TOEs.

The calm before the storm.


This description matches my mindset if I was in CF's shoes! Be watchful for daring and crazy trickery...



_____________________________



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Reluctant Admiral Mod:
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(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1029
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 3/2/2010 1:10:38 AM   
JuanG


Posts: 906
Joined: 12/28/2008
Status: offline 		I've been following this with interest and thought I'd pop in since I can for once offer an answer;

Regarding the torpedo thing, a size 6 port on its own is not enough to rearm torpedo sorties. From manual page 287, a size 6 port requires atleast 160 Nav Support squads to rearm torpedo sorties, OR an AE/AKE with more than 1500 supplies (this is the threshold, not the amount used) onboard - also note that the AE/AKE must have more than this level for every ship it reloads (so if it drops to 1400 after the first CV you need to spend a turn loading supplies onto it to bring it back over 1500).

If you do have these and things still arent happening, my guess is that there is an issue with port ops points or something else preventing the rearming from occuring.

< Message edited by JuanG -- 3/2/2010 1:21:21 AM >

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Post #: 1030
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 3/2/2010 2:10:38 AM   
erstad

 

Posts: 1944
Joined: 8/3/2004
From: Midwest USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JuanG

Regarding the torpedo thing, a size 6 port on its own is not enough to rearm torpedo sorties. From manual page 287, a size 6 port requires atleast 160 Nav Support squads to rearm torpedo sorties, OR an AE/AKE with more than 1500 supplies (this is the threshold, not the amount used) onboard - also note that the AE/AKE must have more than this level for every ship it reloads (so if it drops to 1400 after the first CV you need to spend a turn loading supplies onto it to bring it back over 1500).



According to the manual, the AKE needs to have a *capacity* greater than the rearm level, not a current supply load greater than the rearm level. I'm pretty sure I've reloaded big guns from a relatively depleted AKE - are you sure that doesn't work?

Of course, you need sufficient supply for the rearm itself. But that's a lot less.

(in reply to JuanG)
Post #: 1031
RE: These are the Voyages.... - 3/2/2010 4:30:10 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1. My carrier TBF squadrons finally rearmed torpedoes about three days ago. I'm not sure what did the trick - I have both 5th and 7th Fleet HQ at or near Darwin and there may be a fully loaded AE there now, too (one was on the way; not sure if it has arrived yet).

2. Is it a good idea to sail into the teeth of a hurricane? The entire KB has been hanging around the Ambon/Kendari area for a week or more. Four days ago they "disappeared" and then, two days ago, arrived en masse at Ambon. It was almost as if Miller was giving the appearance of withdrawing hoping to sucker me into moving forward. I don't think he'll guess I'm moving on Lautem, but he is sure spoiling for a fight. Am I better served postponing the invasion to see what he's up to, or proceeding to get the show on the road? The Allied carrier force is pretty massive and I have a size eight and size six airfield close to Lautem, so if I proceed I don't expect to get overwhelmed. I'm inclined to proceed, but Miller sure is acting weirdly.

(in reply to erstad)
Post #: 1032
Into the Teeth of a Hurricane? - 3/2/2010 1:09:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I am proceeding with the invasion of Lautem:

1.  A bombardment TF, several smaller combat TFs, and some ASW/MSW TFs should arrive at Lautem tomorrow.
2.  Two big combat TFs and all carriers will take position a hex (true) north of Lautem.  There are 12 CVEs, three CVLs, CV Victorious, and CVs Wasp, Bunker Hill, Saratoga, Constellation, and Constitution.
3.  The transports are actually pretty distant from Lautem.  I think some will arrive on the 5th with the remainder on the 6th.
4.  The KB - all of it, the whole kit and kaboodle, the kitchen sink - is just north of Ambon.  Miller is spoiling for a fight.  Has he outguessed me, or has my little deception (feint towards Sorong) worked?  If Miller commits the KB within range of the Allied carriers it could be total carnage. 
5.  Two P-47D squadrons, one P-38H, and one P-40K will provide LRCAP from Babar Island.
6.  Plenty of Japanese subs are hanging around, but I'm not sure what to expect in the way of mines and shore guns.  A pretty decent number of AM are embedded with the invasion TFs.
7.  I will be sorely disappointed if the Japanese garrison isn't in bad shape - or if I encounter more than nominal forts.  The Allies have been steadily bombing Lautem for a year.
8.  Most Allied LBA will target Lautem (with a few bombers targeting Ambon and Sorong).  I think Ambon's airfield is shut down, so the only Japanese airfield that would offer LBA at fairly close range will be Kendari, a level six field.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1033
RE: Into the Teeth of a Hurricane? - 3/2/2010 1:14:45 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline 		Well, if it happens it'll rank right up there with the biggest carrier battles ni the history of WITP.

Check your altitudes, and go for him!

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The Moose

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Post #: 1034
RE: Into the Teeth of a Hurricane? - 3/2/2010 1:19:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Well, if it happens it'll rank right up there with the biggest carrier battles ni the history of WITP.
Check your altitudes, and go for him!


Allied carrier fighters:

The CVE fighters are set at 50% CAP at 10k, 15k and 20k.
Most of the fleet carrier non-Hellcats are set at 20k and 25k.
The Hellcats are set at 60% CAP at 30k and 35k.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1035
RE: Into the Teeth of a Hurricane? - 3/2/2010 1:37:34 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Well, if it happens it'll rank right up there with the biggest carrier battles ni the history of WITP.
Check your altitudes, and go for him!


Allied carrier fighters:

The CVE fighters are set at 50% CAP at 10k, 15k and 20k.
Most of the fleet carrier non-Hellcats are set at 20k and 25k.
The Hellcats are set at 60% CAP at 30k and 35k.


I'm not an expert in huge coordination scenarios like this, but my own 1944 experience with the Hellcats is that putting them up too high makes them safe, but they sometimes don't engage. I usually do 20,000 and 25,000. I also put at least one low-CAP-percentage fighter unit at 10,000 to try to make sure at least some fighters go in with the DBs. Even with that, I've had some "naked" DB strikes try to fight through, even in 1944. I have no hard evidence at all, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the code groups CVE air groups together, and CV air groups together, and processes them in parallel somehow.

The hardest decision for me in these huge battles (and I've never had one even close to this big) is the fighter offense/defense ratios. Like you, I usually default to 60%; I figure I can rebuild squadrons easier than carriers, but it means my strikes get shredded sometimes. You have LRCAP help, which is a nice luxury. Even so, it's all risk assessment, without knowing who'll get off the decks first.

Looking forward to the show. Wish I had that cool popcorn-eating applet . . .

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/2/2010 1:38:27 PM >

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Post #: 1036
RE: Into the Teeth of a Hurricane? - 3/2/2010 2:04:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/4/43 and 10/4/43

Just got the combat report for the turn.  Everything appears to be going well - an understatement in one regard.  Highlights:

1.  The KB  didn't show up so there was no carrier battle, which suits me fine.  I think the feint toward Sorong helped.

2.  Sawfish put three TT into CV Hiyo, then another the next day.  After being mostly a non-factor throughout the entire war (two hits on Yamato and one on Mutsu being the notable exceptions), Allied subs finally make themselves felt in a big way. The KB had pulled off west of Ternate - as though Miller didn't really want to tangle with the Allied carriers.

3.  Lautem is mined.  Mines and shore guns damage a few ships, including a CL and a DD, but nothing unexpected or unusual.

4.  Allied ships hit a few Japanese subs hard.  A Japanese sub claims an AK or two (part of the feinting force way off near Kaimana).

5.  The Allied transports arrive and unload in good shape.  By the end of the 5th the Allies have 800+ AV ashore.  The garrison consists of 4th IJA Division and two base forces.  For some reason 9th Aussie Division didn't unload at all - an oddity since it's transport TF was in the lead.  I'll check and figure out what the problem is. Through the 5th the Allies have lost one LST and one LCI, so losses have been pretty light.

Now to find out what happened to 9th Oz Division and get those troops ashore.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/2/2010 2:36:51 PM >

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1037
RE: Into the Teeth of a Hurricane? - 3/2/2010 6:21:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/6/43 and 10/7/43
 
Operation Bull Run:  Everything continues to go well for the Allies:
1.  The rest of the troops came ashore over this two-day turn.  They'll try a deliberate attack on the 8th.  I have about 1150 AV ashore.  The defenders - 4th Division - have about 350 AV.
2.  The Allies have lost just a handful of ships including one DD.  Most of the transports are back at Darwin or on the way.  This should allow the next operation (invasion of Sorong) to proceed on schedule.
3.  Miller positioned the KB just east of Kendari.  His carrier sqaudrons launched, but were poorly escorted or unescorted (Miller is pulling hair out trying to figure out why just 70 Zeros of 400 availalbe flew escort).  He lost something like 300 aircraft - mainly Jills and Judys.  This weakens the KB at a good time (considering the need to proceed with the next invasion).
4.  The Allied carriers will move back a bit to a point between the big airfields at Saumlaki and Babar.  The following turn they shall retire to Darwin.
5.  Allied ASW has damaged quite a few Japanese subs during the course of this operation.
6.  Cod put two TT into badly damaged CA Mikuma.  I think this ship went under.
7.  Air loss table showed about 60 Zeros, Jills and Judys destroyed on the ground.  I suspect this means that CV Hiyo went under.

I think the Allies should be in a position to proceed with the invasion of Sorong (or possibly Morotai if I decide that offers a better area for my ships) in less than ten days.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1038
RE: Into the Teeth of a Hurricane? - 3/2/2010 7:12:06 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline 		Don't you feel bad about all those mean things you said about my bubbleheads?

He's trying to be half-pregnant with his carriers. If you send them into harm's way, do some harm. He lost one biggie, plus four carriers' worth of planes, for nothing.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/2/2010 7:18:26 PM >

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Post #: 1039
RE: Into the Teeth of a Hurricane? - 3/2/2010 11:12:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/8/43 and 10/9/43
 
Operation Bull Run:  This operation comes to a successfull conclusion.  On the second day of deliberate attacks, the Allies take the hex and the Japanese retreat in disarray to Dili.  The Allies don't get away scott-free:  one transport TF lingered at the base and got chewed up by BB Yamashiro and Fuso TF - 4 xAPs and about six xAKs went down.  (Miller is taking a chance sending his last BBs into waters patrolled by far more Allied BBs, but it worked here and in similar fashion at the tail-end of the Boela invasion).  Many of the Allied ground troops will move on to Dili and try to evict the "rabble" there.  I also have to land base forces at Lautem, but this operation succeeded at little cost.  Long term, Lautem airfield can be built to level nine, which means the islands to the west and Ambon and Kendari become much more tenuous.

Operation Fort Henry:  All troops slated for Sorong are already loading at Darwin.  I hope the rapidity of the move will catch Miller on the wrong foot.  I am very worried about facing the entire Japanese carrier force plus the narrow, confined, sub-choked waters around Sorong.

Allied Capital Ships:  BB Washington suffered light damage and will likely head to the West Coast for repairs.  BB Alabama has just arrived to replace her.  Other than that there were essentially no losses to capital ships (nor to carrier air crews).

Operation Perryville:  D-Day is tomorrow for the shoe-string Allied invasion of Ocean Island.  I don't anticipate any hostile presence for the first two days.

Jousting:  Miller and I are jockeying for position in the eastern DEI.  Miller is trying to land a weighted punch before the Allied forces become overwhelming.  I am not anxious to enter into an "all-out" carrier battle, but I'm also not willing to halt the advance, so a big battle will likely take place.  I think it'll happen in conjunction with the Sorong invasion.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1040
RE: Into the Teeth of a Hurricane? - 3/3/2010 5:21:24 AM   
Grotius


Posts: 5798
Joined: 10/18/2002
From: The Imperial Palace.
Status: offline 		Congratulations, Canoerebel-san. Lautem is a major step forward for you. And I hadn't realized it was so close to Manassas, Virginia. :)

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Post #: 1041
RE: Into the Teeth of a Hurricane? - 3/3/2010 9:53:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/10/43 and 10/11/43
 
Operation Fort Henry:  All systems go.  The turn-around was smooth and fast as all transports fully loaded within two days (APAs are amazing tools - wait until you get them in '43) and all carriers refreshed and resupplied.  The transports embark tonight for Sorong, escorted by two big CVE TFs and a mixture of combat, ASW, and MSW TFs.  Two big combat TFs accompanied by three fleet carrier TFs also depart tonight and will sprint to a point about six or seven hexes SE of Ternate, the only big and operational airfield the Japanese have in the area.  Barring an unforeseen development (I'm not expecting to encounter big combat TFs or carriers, but you never know), the Hellcats, SBDs, and Helldivers are scheduled to hit Ternate's airfield in two days.  I hope that this raid, in conjuction with 4EB strikes, will cripple this airfield.  I anticipate D-Day at Sorong to occur in five days.  These are very narrow waters ripe for interception, subs, mines, and other woes, so I'm holding my breath.

CenPac:  Betties from Maloelap hammered several of the Ocean Island (Operation Perryville) transports, but the Fiji commandoes got ashore and took the island.

(in reply to Grotius)
Post #: 1042
Into the Teeth of the Hurricane? - 3/4/2010 2:29:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/12/43 and 10/13/43

Operation Fort Henry: The complicated and risky Allied invasion of Sorong is underway with D-Day three days off (see map below). Developments:

1. Allied combat and carrier TFs took position just north of Ceram without incident (no Japanese carriers or LBA strikes). This is important because these ships are in perfect position to shield the transports.

2. The Allied carriers sent massed Hellcat/SBD-5 strikes against Ternate's airfield - losses were light but I don't think the airfield is shut down.

3. The transports left Darwin in good order (with one exception). Most of them are near Saumlaki. D-Day should be three days. Some of the faster transports may arrive in two days, which is fine. The one exception was a TF carrying two Marine CD units, which lagged at Darwin loading supplies. That TF will get underway tonight.

4. DM TFs will lay mines at a variety of islands in choke points, hoping to make more hazardous the likely routes of interdiction for IJN combat ships. An AD is located in port at Boela, so these DMs should be able to replenish immediately.

5. Boela is a size five airfield, Babo a three, and Kaimana a six. At the time the aborted invasion a month ago, Boela and Babo were both level two fields - so scrubbing the original invasion schedule means the Allies can provide much more land-based CAP. (A nod to Bullwinkle for suggesting this - a course that also resulted in the Allies moving on Lautem - an operation that named Bull Run as a nod of the cap to Bullwinkle).

6. The Allies have about 1500 AV prepped 100% for Sorong. The garrison is 20k strong -probably a division and a few support units. If the troops come ashore in good shape I think Sorong will fall fairly quickly. Forts should be no more than two or three since the Allies have steadily bombed Sorong since the Japanese garrisoned the base.

7. Given Miller's recent unfortunate experience with his carriers (failure to strike in a coordinated, meaningful way at long distance), I expect him to send his carriers in fairly close. I also expect him to commit his combat ships. That the Allies have arrived first and can position the combat TFs and carriers optimally offers some relief. The Japanese have vast numbers of carrier and land-based squadrons, so I expect the air-sea battle to be massive and bloody.

8. CV Victorious is due for withdrawal tomorrow. No way I withdraw her until this battle is over. I'll pay dearly in PP, and I only have 400 at the moment, but this may be the biggest battle of the war.

CenPac: Some kind of Japanese TF is moving south from the Kwajalein/Maloelap vicinity. It's either bringing supplies to Tarawa or an invasion TF targeting Ocean Island, Makin, or Abemama. No matter what it is, though, it means nothing strategically.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/4/2010 3:15:54 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1043
RE: Into the Teeth of the Hurricane? - 3/4/2010 4:48:16 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/12/43 and 10/13/43

Operation Fort Henry: The complicated and risky Allied invasion of Sorong is underway with D-Day three days off (see map below). Developments:

2. The Allied carriers sent massed Hellcat/SBD-5 strikes against Ternate's airfield - losses were light but I don't think the airfield is shut down.

4. DM TFs will lay mines at a variety of islands in choke points, hoping to make more hazardous the likely routes of interdiction for IJN combat ships. An AD is located in port at Boela, so these DMs should be able to replenish immediately.

5. Boela is a size five airfield, Babo a three, and Kaimana a six. At the time the aborted invasion a month ago, Boela and Babo were both level two fields - so scrubbing the original invasion schedule means the Allies can provide much more land-based CAP. (A nod to Bullwinkle for suggesting this - a course that also resulted in the Allies moving on Lautem - an operation that named Bull Run as a nod of the cap to Bullwinkle).

6. The Allies have about 1500 AV prepped 100% for Sorong. The garrison is 20k strong -probably a division and a few support units. If the troops come ashore in good shape I think Sorong will fall fairly quickly. Forts should be no more than two or three since the Allies have steadily bombed Sorong since the Japanese garrisoned the base.

7. Given Miller's recent unfortunate experience with his carriers (failure to strike in a coordinated, meaningful way at long distance), I expect him to send his carriers in fairly close. I also expect him to commit his combat ships. That the Allies have arrived first and can position the combat TFs and carriers optimally offers some relief. The Japanese have vast numbers of carrier and land-based squadrons, so I expect the air-sea battle to be massive and bloody.



2. I've never been able to do more than dent/make mad shore airfields with carrier air. Not like in WITP. Runway hits don't seem to be a huge limiting factor, and the supply losses usually are barely worth the carrier plane damage/losses. Still, if those planes are sitting around doing nothing, it doesn't hurt.

4. I like this. I've not seen (in the only couple of other AARs I've skimmed) mines used as a choke point deterrent, as is their modern use. Always in hexes. They decay fast out in the staits, but if they're there they're psychological, and may get a hit or two. Kudos on this tactic. It's hard to engineer in that part of the ocean with short-legged layers

5. Aw, shucks.

6. 20k is a pretty good rock with even level 3 forts. Be concerned if some of the non-division guys are a decent CD unit. Patch 3 juiced CD a good bit. Might influence your arrival timing to overlap as many TFs at once as you can, overwhelming the CD, or, 2-day turns might just make this too hard. I'd say though that you've given him leading hints enough that Sorong is on your short-list, as well as time to hustle a CD unit from Pelilu or somewhere similar. Even if, the target is worth losing some transports over.

7. I guess you saw his anguished/pissed/wondering post in the general section, and this is a HUGE op sec leak on his part about his state of mind. He WILL fight, and you're as ready as you can be. Popcorn still in hot standby . . .

Edit: after looking at the map again, do you have your BB TF LRCAPped?

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/4/2010 4:49:51 PM >

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1044
RE: Into the Teeth of the Hurricane? - 3/4/2010 5:59:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That BB TF is moving to Sorong to bombard.

A CL/DD TF will take its place (as a forward guard to just keep an eye on things in the narrow sea lanes north of Ceram).

The carriers and other combat TFs will mainly move a bit to the east (a hex closer to Sorong) to provide LRCAP to the bombardment TF hitting Sorong.  They will also be about midway between Boela and Babo, permitting LRCAP to operate more efficiently from both bases.

I don't *think* Sorong has a CD unit, but I could be wrong.  I need to give it a bit more thought before I finish the turn.  As things stand now I am sending some of the faster transport TFs ahead hoping that some landings will occur in two days.  I'll at least consider holding all transports together for the reasons you mention.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1045
RE: Into the Teeth of the Hurricane? - 3/4/2010 6:37:19 PM   
LoBaron


Posts: 4776
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline 		Could have mined it though as in his situation I´d try much to make an advance
this important as costly as possibly.

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1046
RE: Into the Teeth of the Hurricane? - 3/4/2010 8:07:54 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		No doubt he's mined Sorong.  I have the usual mix of minesweepers along, but there will be some attrition to mines (just as there was in the Lautem invasion).  A separate MSW TF goes to Sorong tonight and will remain in the hex with the bombardment TF.

(in reply to LoBaron)
Post #: 1047
RE: Into the Teeth of the Hurricane? - 3/4/2010 8:28:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/14/43 and 10/15/43
 
Operation Port Henry:  No carrier or combat clashes and the advanced echelon of Allied troops unload at Sorong in good order.  Highlights (and one lowlight):

1.  I think Miller evaluated the Allied carrier air attack on Ternate as a raid, just like the one I did about a month ago.  With all the shipping at sea he might not have noticed the transports or surmised that an invasion was on.  That would explain the lack of "pounce" by the IJN carriers and combat ships.  If that's what happened then last month's raid on Ternate paid an unexpected and valuable dividend.

2.  The advance echelon of transports began unloading at Sorong on the 15th.  No mines and no shore guns meant very little in the way of damage to ships or troops.  The Allies already have 500+ AV ashore.  Even if a massive air/sea battle erups tomorrow, this gives the Allies a good chance at making at least the landing aspect go well.

3.  Garrison consists of 33rd Divsion, one engineer units, and one base force.

4.  The only bad thing was that AE Shasta took two torpedoes at Boela.  She was one of the few I have left (I lost alot of AE/AKE during the Kuriles invasion).

5.  An Allied sub torpedoed a IJN sub near Boela (a first for the Allies in our game).

6.  A few carrier SBD-5s didn't get the message to stand down from the Ternate airfield raid.  They hit the airfield again along with some 4EB.  Surprisingly, no CAP encountered, so perhaps this dented the airfield a bit more.

7.  4EB also targeted Kendari but found lots of CAP and accomplished very little.

8.  Miller has to attack over the next two-day period if he wants to disrupt the Sorong landings.

Operation Bull Run:  The Allied army has moved from Lautem to Dili and will attack the beaten up Japanese garrison tomorrow.  Once Dili is cleared, most of these troops will begin prepping for a new target.  I think 9th Aussie Division will target Ambon.

Operation Island Number Ten:  If (big if) the Sorong invasion goes really well - meaning no unacceptably high losses to transports nor a carrier engagement defeat - then the Morotai invasion will quickly follow.  The units are at Darwin and are 100% prepped.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1048
RE: Into the Teeth of the Hurricane? - 3/5/2010 3:24:51 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/16/43 and 10/17/43
 
Operation Fort Henry (Sorong Invasion):  The Japanese do not contest the landings - no sign of the KB or combat ships.  (In an email Miller said his disastrous loss of 300 Jills and Judys a week or so ago made it impossible for him to attack).  Nearly all troops have landed - most in perfect condition thanks to 100% prep and APAs.  The Allies will try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow.  Resistance in one division that should be highly prepped, so taking the island won't necessarily be easy or quick, but I believe it is inevitable.

Operation Island Number Ten (Upcoming Morotai Invasion):  Ninety percent of the troop transports have unloaded at Sorong and will depart tonight to rendezvous with the carriers.  I expect all ships to start back toward Darwin in two days.  If nothing untoward occurs, they will immediately reload for the invasion of Morotai.  I won't proceed until the Allies have Sorong as I'll need that airfield, but I think it will work out for a D-Day in two or three weeks.

Operation Bull Run (Lautem Invasion and Dili Battle):  Back-to-back Allied attacks dropped forts from two to one, the first coming off at 1:1 and the second at 2:1.  I expect Dili to fall tomorrow.  The base forces have landed at Lautem, all infrastructure damage has been prepared, and the engineers have commenced work on expanding the airfield from level two to (eventually) nine.

What's Next?:  Morotai should be a tough nut as it is close to big airfields at Ternate and Manado.  Once Sorong falls, the Allies will also move east along the northern New Guinea coast to take Manikwari and to take and build Biak.  From Lautem, the Allies will take some of the vacant or lightly guarded islands to the west.  Ambon should be the next big invasion after Morotai - perhaps in five weeks.  After that I'm not sure - my preference is to move west toward Manado, Talaud Island, and then to northeast Borneo or the Philippine Islands south of Mindanao.

SWPac:  The U.S. Cavalry Division prepping for Milne Bay is on the way to Townsville from San Diego.  The Milne Bay invasion should take place in a month or so.

CenPac:  The Allies should take a vacant Nauru Island in a few weeks.  After that I expect things to be quiet until the Allies are ready to hit Marcus and Wake - troops are fully prepped, but 90% of troop transports are committed to the DEI operations at the moment.  I don't expect to move on Marcus or Wake until spring '44.

Burma:  The Allies are positioning troops to advance on Pegu and Rangoon in a few weeks. I don't have enough troops to really threaten Rangoon, but if Miller thinks Pegu could fall he may decide that holding Rangoon isn't possible.  IE, through a bluff the Allies might gain Rangoon.  Or perhaps nothing will come of it.  Reinforcements are on the way so that by early '44 there is some hope that the Allies could actually fight for Rangoon if the Japs don't evacuate.

Japan:  The shift in the balance of power has been so abrupt and decided that its caught both of us by surprise.  Allied carriers are the reason for the shift.  Japan retains its massive carrier and LBA threat, so Miller will pounce at some point in the future - probably where least expected.  So there are many big fights to come, but the Battles of the Eastern DEI from August to October 1943 were decisive - before then the Japanese held the initiative; now the Allies hold it.

Kamikazes:  Don't know if the Allied invasion of the Kuriles in '43 triggered them...but I'm going to assume it did. 

Sub Wars:  Given the total, unbeleiveable record posted by Japanese subs in the game, I was positive that they would wreak havoc on the combat ships and carriers confined in the narrow waters of the Ceram and Banda Seas. Knock on wood, that hasn't been the case.  Instead it's been the Allied subs who have hammered several capital ships.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/5/2010 3:29:06 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1049
RE: Into the Teeth of the Hurricane? - 3/5/2010 1:27:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Taking some time this morning to look over the map to see what possibilities exist, likely vectors for future attack, and how troops stand on prep.  Doing so brought to mind some random thoughts:

1)  APAs and AKAs are golden.  These ships unload in one or at most two days and place troops on the beach in "pristine" condition.  Whereas xAPs may still be unloading some troops and gear four or five days into a landing, the APAs and AKAs are in and out of the beach and out of danger.  So guard 'em carefully.

2)   Replay Syndrome:  I've been bleeding political points recently, but due to the rapid pace of the game and some extraordinary needs at work since January I've been skipping watching most combat replays.  I've probably watched only 15 replays in the last seven months of game time.  Most of the 15 I've watched have been in the past two weeks of game time as the Lautem and Sorong invasions were developing.  I don't recommend this practice for obvious reasons - like missing reports of overdue aircraft withdrawals (I just checked and found I have about six squadrons late) - but it actually is a fun way to play fast.

3)  I thought briefly about loading up the troops at Boela to make a snap invasion of Ambon, but found that most are only 35%-40% prepped.  So that invasion will wait.

4)  The Morotai troops are 100% prepped, so that should be the next big invasion.

5)  Between now and Morotai, the Allies will probably take Biak (an Allied dot hex of New Guinea's northwest coast), Manikwari (lightly garrisoned), and one or two of the islands west of Timor.

6)  Once Sorong falls I think those troops will prep for Manado.

7)  Once Dili falls I think those troops will prep for Kendari (or perhaps some will prep for Ambon).

8)  By the end of the year I think the Allies will hold Morotai, Manado, and Ambon.  If so it should allow moves on northeastern Borneo or the southern Philippines in early '44.

9)  At the end of the game Miller is going to (accurately) say:  "Man, the eastern DEI islands were open.  I was scrambling like crazy to occupy and garrison them.  If you had moved a little faster you could have taken Sorong/Morotai/etc. with little or no opposition."  He's right - with recon I saw the opportunities and wanted to move fast, but due to lack of carriers any offensive moves could have/would have resulted in unacceptably high losses in combat ships and transports.  Transports, in particular, have been in short supply following the disastrous invasion of the Kuriles.  So, despite the opportunities, I decided I'd prefer to face stiffer opposition later but with well prepared and protected invasions than to make bold, quick, unprepared and under-protected invasions while enticing openings existed.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/5/2010 1:30:48 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1050
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