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RE: Intel Assessment - 3/17/2010 9:54:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Based upon an email from Miller, things may get interesting around Rangoon...and it appears that first he made a bad miscalculation and now I have:

1.  Miller says once he saw the size of my army at Pegu he knew he had to evacuate Rangoon.  How in the heck this happened to "slip up" on him escapes me, though, since both Allied armies were gathering strength in his immediate front for at least six months.  He goofed bad here - in part I wonder if he didn't realize that losing Pegu would isolate his army in Rangoon.

2.  But for every mistake he makes aren't I required to make an equal and opposite mistake?  He says he had already ordered his army to evacuate Rangoon for Pegu and he thinks they'll make it this turn.  Well, shiver me timbers!  I thought my attack at Rangoon last turn would freeze his units in place.  I also thought they wouldn't be able to move to Pegu since it's now in Allied hands.  So....I had ordered a bunch of my troops to move toward Moulmein.  I don't think they'll leave the hex before I cancel the orders, but instead of having 1100 AV 100% prepped for Pegu, I'll have 1100 AV of which perhaps 1/5th is 100% prepped and the rest is 0% prepped.  *ack*!

It will be interesting to see what happens.  My army at Pegu is fresh and just emerged victorious while his just took a pretty good hit at Rangoon - plus I'll have the huge army at Rangoon right on his heels.  I don't know if he can take Pegu.  If he doesn't, can I surround his army and destroy it or will he have or manage some route of retreat?  Stay tuned....

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1231
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/17/2010 10:17:55 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		It will be interesting because as soon as he leaves Rangoon and you snatch it, he is out of supply and will get no more than he can carry. If you survive the first attack at Pegu,  he is done for. This one you can afford to lose but he cannot. I think I would rather be in your shoes.

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Post #: 1232
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/17/2010 10:23:25 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		If you can afford to, I would put LRCAP over Rangoon to see if you can stop him from using transports (or at least hurt him).

Strategic targets - Oil and/or HI

I smell an invasion of northern Sumatra in the works.  

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1233
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/17/2010 10:43:54 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I just got the combat report.  The Japanese evacuated Rangoon, but on the first day of our two day turn, the Allied attack roughed  up an IJA regiment (following closely on the 4k casualties the IJA took a few days ago).  So the Japanese army at Pegu is pretty beat up.  It's raw AV should be 1000 or less.  The Allied army there should be at least 1100 AV (assuming I am able to cancel the orders of my troops before they leave the hex, which I think I can because they were set to "combat" march).

So you're right, crsutton, the Japanese will be in trouble if that first attack fails.  Within a couple of days at least 1000 AV will advance from Rangoon to Pegu and then the doors are closed.  Miller's army may find some viable route of retreat, but I'll do my best to corral and destroy it.  Pegu is a coastal hex so he might try FT, but I'll have a BB TF stationed at Rangoon to contest the effort.

NYGiants:  No impending amphibious operations in SEAC.  In late '42 the Prime Minister and the President agreed that nearly all UK troops and combat ships would be devoted to the Allied advance into the DEI from Australia.  It took many months, but most Brit regiments and alot of support units and ships are there and are playing a vital role in the Allied advance there.  The Allies intend to put all their effort into severing the LOC between the Home Island and the DEI and then will move north.  I doubt I'll ever move on either Sumatra or Java in any meaningful way. 

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Post #: 1234
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/17/2010 11:17:43 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm going to use the Chinese that I have on hand.  It's not much - perhaps six divisions that can be built up to something like 220 AV each.  Miller destroyed China utilizing the dratted massed artillery and strategic bombing techniques, so these Chinese units (and Chiang) are so pissed off that they've agreed to serve under British and American command anywhere in SE Asia.  (I think that's pretty plausible given the way the game developed).


An aside, and you have awhile to go yet, but stay aware of Rule 8.8

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The Moose

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Post #: 1235
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 1:44:47 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Zoiks, what's Rule 8.8?! I don't have the game or manual loaded on my home computer...and I'm here at home for the next ten hours wondering if I've forgotten something important....

So, what's Rule 8.8? Is it something nasty that happens if the Chinese go into Thailand?

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1236
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 3:17:12 AM   
Heeward


Posts: 343
Joined: 1/27/2003
From: Lacey Washington
Status: offline 		WITPAE Manual 8.8 INDO-CHINA JAPANESE MILITIA Each time an Allied unit moves into Indo-China, the Japanese will receive a Japanese (representing Vietnamese/Vichy French forces) militia division (up to a maximum of 4). Thus if 2 ground units move into Indo-China, and then 1 unit moves from one border hex to another, 3 militia divisions will be formed. These militia divisions will be formed in Hanoi, Haiphong, Luang Prabang, and Hue in that order, and they will be formed at 1/3 strength.

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The Wake

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Post #: 1237
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 3:48:59 AM   
freeboy

 

Posts: 9088
Joined: 5/16/2004
From: Colorado
Status: offline 		looks like a good way to reduce enemy suplies in the endgame, give then some broke down militia to help eat up their supplies! AWESOME!

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Post #: 1238
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 4:19:22 AM   
pat.casey

 

Posts: 393
Joined: 9/10/2007
Status: offline 		Those IndoChina militia divisions are reasonably weak at the start; empty TOE, poor experience, etc. Really won't let them dissuade you from making a push.

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Post #: 1239
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 1:15:25 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: pat.casey

Those IndoChina militia divisions are reasonably weak at the start; empty TOE, poor experience, etc. Really won't let them dissuade you from making a push.


I agree; I was only pointing out the rule as it's pretty small in the manual and few players have gotten that far in the game.

OTOH, if the Indo-China ingress is with para-dropped troops alone, even one of these paste-eater LCUs could clock them.

_____________________________

The Moose

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Post #: 1240
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 2:48:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks for the heads-up, Bullwinkle (and for the information about the rule, other gents).  I dealt with that rule in my WitP games.  I'd say there's a decent chance it will come into play in this game.  I suppose this might be as good a time as any to describe the Allied end-game plan, which has been in place since early 1942.

The main thrust by the Allies was (and is) to be across the northern reaches of the DEI included Sorong and Morotai (now taken), Talaud Island (operation underway), Manado, and then some of the good bases around NE Borneo, Mindanao, and the islands in between.

From there, the Allies intend to leap across the South China Sea to either or both Vietnam and southeastern coastal China.  While, at the same time, the Allies will look for opportunities around Luzon and the middle Philippines, the real effort to take and build up big strategic bases in proximity to Japan will be along coastal China.  In part this is "retribution" for the fanny whipping administered in China; in part it is because I think Miller won't be expecting it - he'll have Luzon and Formosa set up as fortresses, but I'm wagering coastal China will be lightly held; and in part it serves the purpose of severing the Japanese Home Islands from the DEI.

To dovetail with this plan, the British, Indians and Chinese troops in SEAC will be moving primarily east from Rangoon/Pegu (toward Vietnam) rather than south (toward Singapore).

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Post #: 1241
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 6:20:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/05/43 and 12/06/43
 
The sudden and complete collapse of the Japanese positions at Pegu and Rangoon presents opportunties in SEAC and has the Allies thinking long-term to coordinate all forces and vectors of attack.  Japan remains very strong and will strike again effectively (there is no doubt about that), but developments over the past six weeks have really altered the course of the game.

SEAC:  The roughly 1000 AV Japanese army succeeded in withdrawing from Rangoon to Allied-held Pegu.  The Allied army there is 1250 AV (I was able to halt the units that were in the process of leaving).  Furthermore, another 1000+ Allied AV should move from Rangoon to Pegu in just a few days.  So what happens to this Japanese army now?  It doesn't have a port or airfield to evacuate or re-supply.  And I don't think it can leave the hex unless it first takes it or unless it is defeated in battle.  If that's true, I will try to surround the hex to eliminate every retreat option.  The Japanese have brought aircraft back to theater - they are based at Moulmein.  Ships are there too.  The Allies will move the BC Repulse TF from Akyab to Rangoon and the Allied air force will begin working on the Japanese.  The situation is very fluid here and I'm not quite sure what's going to happen.

China:  For the first time in months (since Miller called off offensive operations in China), the Allies are considering going on the offensive.  First, I think the fall of Rangoon may reopen the Burma Road to China?  If so, the flow of supplies could allow the Chinese army to rebuild.  The army is already fairly large and have begun prepping for an offensive aimed at driving east toward the coast.  Three Chinese armies are prepping for Hengyang, K_____?, and Kanhsien.  The first is held by just three Japanese units with a fourth nearby.  I have no idea what I might face at the second and third, but the Chinese armies will be very large.  If successful, this offensive would place the Chinese in a position to offer reconaissance and some LRCAP when the Western Allies move toward the Chinese coast sometime next year.  This offensive won't kick off for several months or more - I don't want to arouse Japanese attention to the Chinese coast.  Smaller Chinese armies are prepping for Liuchow to the south and Sian to the north.  The latter may get underway in early '44 in order to draw Japanese attention to the interior of northern China.

DEI:  The troops destined for Talaud Island are still loading at Darwin.  D-Day is probably six or seven days away, to be preceeded by para assault a day earlier.  The Allies will briefly recon Talaud tomorrow to see if it is occupied (and, if so, the operation could be postponed).  The Allies just landed at Maumere and Lombolen (west of Timor) and found them vacant.  These can be built into large airbases that will assist in the eventual moves on Kendari and Makassar.  They also pose threats to Soerabaja.

Damaged Capital Ships:  The big BB/CV TF of ships damaged in the Battle of Morotai arrived at Pago Pago in good shape and will next hop to Christmas Island.  Barring an encounter with subs, they should make Alameda and San Francisco in about two weeks.

Japanese Ire:  Since the Japanese carriers returned to Baolabob two weeks ago the Japanese have been quiet and have been absorbing a series of big blows.  The Japanese are mad as hornets and remain very strong.  I expect Miller to organize a carrier strike.  With two day turns he can hit unexpectedly and deliver a big blow.  The most likely targets would be the shipping lanes between New Guinea and Townsville or the edges of the DEI (either around Sorong or Lautem would be my guess).   I can't shut down all my shipping indefenately, but I am trying to keep the combat ships at ports with decent CAP, and transports in small and scattered TFs.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1242
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 6:24:15 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

No HR regarding the RTA.  One division is in Rangoon.

I don't have any permanent restricted troops in Burma (I'm not even sure what a permanent restricted unit is?).  I've paid political points for all of the restricted Indian and Chinese units that I'm using in theater.

I'm going to use the Chinese that I have on hand.  It's not much - perhaps six divisions that can be built up to something like 220 AV each.  Miller destroyed China utilizing the dratted massed artillery and strategic bombing techniques, so these Chinese units (and Chiang) are so pissed off that they've agreed to serve under British and American command anywhere in SE Asia.  (I think that's pretty plausible given the way the game developed).


If you paid PPS for every unit in Burma, and changed to non-restricted command, then you are using the Historical Chinese units anyway, like 200th Division and friends.

Miller messed up, but good players make you pay for mess-ups, and you are making him pay....

He can still evacuate fragments from Pegu via flying boat. In fact, the Japanese can build Flying Boat transports for this specific purpose (the Mavis and Emily transports).

< Message edited by Q-Ball -- 3/18/2010 6:25:57 PM >

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Post #: 1243
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 6:49:19 PM   
AcePylut


Posts: 1494
Joined: 3/19/2004
Status: offline 		2 Questions:  At Pegu, does Miller control the hexside heading across the river opposite of Rangoon?  If so, would that allow his army to escape?

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Post #: 1244
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 6:57:28 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Based on experience with some units of mine trapped in China, he can only retreat across a hex side that he owns. AFAIK you do not have to have troops in all the surrounding hexes.

Based on the importance of the situation, you might want to confirm with cap-and-gown that he did not have all 6 hexes surrounding my troops occupied - only the hexes toward which I owned the hex sides.

(in reply to AcePylut)
Post #: 1245
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 7:00:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut
2 Questions:  At Pegu, does Miller control the hexside heading across the river opposite of Rangoon?  If so, would that allow his army to escape?


I think he may control that hexside. His army formerly at Pegu retreated across that hexside when it was defeated in battle. At that point the Allies were the only units in the Pegu hex. Then the Japanese army in Rangoon arrived at Pegu. But the retreated IJA army is across the river (in the hex between Pegu and Moulmein).

That's confusing!

I have no idea what will happen. I didn't want to attack for fear that doing so might defeat the IJA force and thus allow it to retreat. But if the hexside permits it to retreat then perhaps I should attack to rough up the army.

(in reply to AcePylut)
Post #: 1246
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 7:02:25 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		Check out hexside control by using the "P" key to turn off hexside details. then, use the "W" key to see who controls a particualr hexside. If it is red between Pegu and the SE towards Moulmein, then he can escape.

(in reply to AcePylut)
Post #: 1247
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 7:05:50 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		In addition to using the preferences screen, the F6 key directly toggles hex side details on and off.

That w key is now essential to land combat!

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Post #: 1248
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 7:52:22 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Yes, ny59giants is on the money. He can only retreat over a red hexside. Once you have all hexsides green, he cannot retreat and can take no supply. You need not surround him. Only have small units cross into the hex to turn the red hexside green.

This is a great trick for armored units in clear terrain. Let the enemy advance into your hex, he will only have one red hexside. Then you follow him into your hex via that same hex with one fast unit. (can be anything even reece) turning the hex back to green. The enemy is totally cut off and dead meat unless he has follow up units that can enter the hex after you and turn a hexside green.

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Post #: 1249
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 7:56:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks for the help, gents.

Here's a map of the situation in Burma. I toggled the W key and the hexside in question was green (or possibly green on the Pegu side and red on the side of the adjacent hex; it was hard to tell, but the Pegu side was definately green).




Attachment (1)

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 1250
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 8:03:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's a closeup with hexside control on:




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 1251
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 8:14:15 PM   
stldiver


Posts: 724
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: West Palm Beach, USA
Status: offline 		Concerning the Pegu hex, the green on the allied side to the SE mean you can advance that way, you own the hex, but he cannot retreat that way. The only direction he can move is west back to Rangoon. If you move from Rangoon east into Pegu he will have no retreat route.

The red on the SE towards the Japanese means he can march back into that hex from the SE, if he does that it will turn all red and his units will have a retreat route to the SE.

Good Luck in taking out the stack.

That is the way it worked for me. If your in the hex first, any units advancing into the hex can only advance out the way they came in.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1252
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 9:10:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/07/43 and 12/08/43
 
I think I finally understand the hexsides - thanks, gents. 

Burma:  It appears that the Japanese army at Pegu (late of Rangoon) is cutoff with now way to retreat other than a desperate attemt by Miller to send troops from the south to enter the hex and reopen the road.  Miller's units bombarded this turn - a telling indication that he can't move them.  The Allies may well be able to destroy this army.  Meanwhile, the BC Repulse TF ripped an AKL TF at Moulmein, sinking better than a dozen ships.  LBA from Rangoon damaged some five or six.  Miller's remaining tight-lipped, but I think this situation is a terrible nightmare for him.

DEI:  A massive air battle over Ternate resulted in about 1:1 losses for each side -total a-2-a losses over two days were 100 Allies, 88 Japanese (this included the smaller air battles over Moulmein).  That's pretty good compared to previous results.  I'll keep it up a few more turns to see if I can get the better of the Japanese.  If not, though, I'll have to stand down for awhile.  The Allies took Lomblen and Maumere.  Talaud Island is garrisoned by one unit 2K strong.  I am proceeding with the invasion - D-Day perhaps five days away (I ordered the transports  - currently at Darwin - to cease loading supplies and move out).

(in reply to stldiver)
Post #: 1253
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 9:56:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		My opponent just sent this email, a clever attempt at misinformation:

"The shock attack on Pegu this turn was an oversight on my part, I dont want you to think I would be clueless enough to think it would succeed......."

I think what he actually did was send one of the units from the hex across the river back into Pegu in an effort to reopen the hexside so that his army can escape.  I don't have the turn file yet, so I can't check the hexside color to see if it worked, but assuming that it did, what should I do now?

If the hexside is open so that his army can retreat, I don't think I can freeze him in place by attacking.  I probably have two options:  set my units to move across the river too (but if I do that, we'll both end up in that next hex, and then he can move out of that hex into Moulmein, so I don't think I accomplish anything).  The other option is to shock attack now (in the Pegu hex) and try to devastate his army while it's in in "move" mode.

Any advice? 

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1254
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 10:01:54 PM   
Smeulders

 

Posts: 1879
Joined: 8/9/2009
Status: offline 		If he has sent units over the river to open up a path for his encircled forces, than that hex side is now closed for you. The only option is to either let him retreat or attack and force him to retreat while taking heavy casualties.

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Post #: 1255
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 10:03:39 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		You're right, that's probably what happened: A unit advancing INTO Pegu to open the retreat route. In which case, those units will escape. Nothing you can do about it, as you are not in a position to re-establish the block.

I would shock attack and blow them up as they withdraw, at least they will be ridiculously shattered, and easy to roll toward the Thai frontier.

I've had escapes against me like that, it's pretty tough to completely surround units in AE.

A victory anyway.


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Post #: 1256
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 10:05:07 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks, Smeulders.

Darn, his army is getting away!  If only I had let my troops advance into that hex a few days ago (you'll recall I halted them to make sure I could hold Pegu against the cut-off Japanese army).  So I goofed, but I did so trying my best, so what the heck. 

Anyhow, I'll try a shock attack next turn, but the enemy has flown the coop. Drat!

(in reply to Smeulders)
Post #: 1257
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 10:26:32 PM   
beppi

 

Posts: 382
Joined: 3/11/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline 		As for Supply in China, if the road way to china is open, dump a load of supplies to ragoon and they will move to china itself. If you count it a gamey move dont drop too much because you can move a real lot of supplies to china this way.

But basicaly supply problems in china will be gone.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1258
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 10:28:10 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		If you hit them on the way out, I don't think they will be in any shape for further resistance for quite some time to come. You've won a pretty big victory - the only question is when do you consolidate vs. push forward.

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Post #: 1259
RE: Intel Assessment - 3/18/2010 10:38:09 PM   
beppi

 

Posts: 382
Joined: 3/11/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline 		A tactic which i used against my brother is, chase him with every unit you can spare (reserve + chase or so is the mode) even if it would not be enough to force another retreat. if you chase him you gain 20 miles or so already moved. Then set your entire army with which you want to follow him to move (not combat). When your first units arrive in the next hex, do a deliberate to force his units from move mode to combat mode. You cant force all of them but some of them. So your main army is faster in the next hex than his retreated army can leave and you can force a retreat again.
This works quite nice alonge the coast se of Pegu as it is road an the pushes can be in very short duration and the defender has almost no chance for recovery.

(This depends on how much fresh AV are in the Hex SE)

< Message edited by beppi -- 3/18/2010 10:40:10 PM >

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 1260
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