RE: Hindsight is Twenty-Twenty

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RE: Hindsight is Twenty-Twenty - 4/16/2010 3:55:45 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bullwinkle's post about AKE and AE in another part of the AE forum reminded me that I should disclose to you, gentle readers, my AKE and AE woes in this game.� This is almost too embarrassing to describe, but what the heck:

Fairly early in the game, and before I fully understood the complex, important, very nuanced interplay between heavy capital ships and AE/AKE, I embarked on the invasion of the Kuriles.� Fully aware that this battle would be critical, and that the Allies would need to be able to resupply their ships, I brought along my AKE and AE...and they all got sunk.� How could that happen?� Well, go back and read that part of the AAR, but, in short, the combination of the KB and a massive, month-long air/sea battle decimated Allied transports, support craft, and combat ships.�

I lost three AKE and three AE in that campaign.� Not until much later did I realize how costly that was/is.

At that point, I had one AE left.� I sent her to the DEI, where another Allied offensive was ramping up.� From Darwin, I sent her to Boela, Ceram, to disband into that important port...and�a she was sunk by a Japanese sub.

That left me with...no AKE or AE on the map.

Since then, I have had an AKE arrive.� She actually made it to Boela, too, so I now have some ability to re-arm the big guns on my capital ships.� Before now, I had to send my BBs back to Sydney to re-arm.

How have the Allies managed in the interim?� I don't know - they just did.

One thing I do know - lesson hard-learned and hard-earned won't be soon be forgotten.

'Tis a far, far better thing to have had AE's and to have lost . . .

Uh, no. Sorry.

Yep, they are massively critical, and I did not truly understand that until 1944, when the re-load distances get waaaay long. I have three bugged ones sitting in Saipan, where I really need BBs to work.

In my next game, every blasted hull that can convert to an AKE is getting converted. I was too lackadaisical about it when they were in the conversion window, and now it's too late.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1441

RE: Hindsight is Twenty-Twenty - 4/16/2010 4:25:06 PM

Canoerebel

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I feel your pain. You feel my pain.

I knew how AKE and AE were used, which is why I took them along for the Kuriles invasion, but I didn't know two other critical things:

1) how rare they are (rare ships for the Allies? A novel concept indeed.)
2) how few are ports big enough to handle re-arming of battleships - who would've thunk there isn't a single port in the eastern DEI that can handle this - so that my ships have to retire all the way to Sydney. But at least Sydney is closer than Aukland or Pearl Harbor.

_____________________________

"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper�s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 1442

RE: Hindsight is Twenty-Twenty - 4/16/2010 4:37:10 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I feel your pain.� You feel my pain.

I knew how AKE and AE were used, which is why I took them along for the Kuriles invasion, but I didn't know two other critical things:

1)� how rare they are (rare ships for the Allies?��A novel concept indeed.)
2)� how few are ports big enough to handle re-arming of battleships - who would've thunk there isn't a single port in the eastern DEI that can handle this - so that my ships have to retire all the way to Sydney.� But at least Sydney is closer than Aukland or Pearl Harbor.

It is devilish of the devs to not let Darwin go to Port 7. Hook a brother up already.

They are the preeminent support ship for the Allies. In WITP I worried about my AVs. In AE, the AE is the queen, far more important than ASs or ADs, and even a bit more than ARs. I'd trade ten AGs right now for a working AE.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1443

Drums along the Straits - 4/16/2010 6:13:42 PM

Canoerebel

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3/12/44 and 3/13/44

Japanese Carriers: The KB, or a reasonable facsimile thereof, is parked just west of Makassar. So, over six days, these CV TFs have steamed from the straits north of Borneo past Balikpan and down to Makassar...in plain view yet doing little over the past two days. What's Miller doing? It doesn't appear that he's going to Kendari, and utilizing the KB - especially in plain sight - to cover a supply or transport mission to Makassar would be huge overkill. So Miller seems to be marching around banging on drums and kettles to make as much noise as possible, but I don't yet know why.

DEI: Meanwhile, a big air battle was fought over Kendari, with the Japanese getting the best of a-2-a (an 80 to 50 advantage) while the Allies destroyed 50 aircraft on the ground and closed the field. But recon now shows 200 aircraft at Manado, which we shut down long ago and which shows 100% damage. So, Allied 4EB will divide attention between Kendari and Manado over the next two-day turn. The Allies will be sending in several reinforcement convoys to a number of forward bases (Sidate, Talaud Island, etc.) so there will be exposure to air attack. The Allied 4EB port strike at Davao damaged and sank four or five ACM.

One Reason I'm Leary of Island Hopping: The sudden appearance of 200 Japanese aircraft at Manado is one reason I'm so leary of bypassing major Japanese bases in the DEI. It's too easy to reopen the bases if the Allies halt bombing briefly to focus on other locales. Once I "liquidate" Manado and Kendari, the Allies should have a safe LOC in the region and I can move forward.

Burma: No changes here as the Allies continue to move and jockey for position. My hope is to either isolate Bangkok or create such concern that Miller elects to withdraw. The same holds true for Tavoy, although that base is much less important than Bangkok.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 1444

RE: Drums along the Straits - 4/16/2010 6:56:58 PM

AcePylut

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quote:

What's Miller doing? It doesn't appear that he's going to Kendari, and utilizing the KB - especially in plain sight - to cover a supply or transport mission to Makassar would be huge overkill. So Miller seems to be marching around banging on drums and kettles to make as much noise as possible, but I don't yet know why.

He's finding out how many CV's you have in the area.

If you had CV parity or an advantage, I think you'd go after his seemingly "alone and unsupported" CV's. That you don't, could tell him that you don't have parity.

Or, I would think he's got some transport ships a couple days behind that are heading somewhere... but he doesn't have a lot so he won't risk them suicidally. So he throws the KB there to "do battle" with anything you might throw at him... and if he "wins" this hypothetical battle, the transports are probably going to be safe. If you were to "win", his xports might still be far enough back to be diverted safely.

However, that is all pure speculation.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1445

RE: Drums along the Straits - 4/16/2010 7:15:30 PM

Canoerebel

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3/14/44 and 3/15/44

Acepylut: You could be right - our last carrier battle was five months ago (!) and he undoubtedly suspects enough time has passed for the damaged carriers to repair and return. (Actually, newly arrived Intrepid is at Darwin; formerly damaged Bunker Hill and Saratoga just passed Pago Pago on the way back to the DEI; and Constellation is still undergoing repairs at Alameda).

DEI: I've seen only the report, not the file, so I don't know exactly where the KB is, but nothing major happened during this two-day interval. Allied LBA did tag a few AKL near Salajar Island (south of Kendari) and I assume the KB remains in position somewhere in the vicinity as some Allied aircraft tangled with CAP put up by Zuikaku and other fleet carriers. Elsewhere, another huge air battle, this one over Manado, with the Allies re-closing this base (I think). Finally, the Allied reinforcment convoys went into Sidate, Talaud Island, etc. without incident, which is a great relief as each one was pretty significant (especially the one to Talaud as it carries a base force).

Burma: The 5223 Tank unit moved east of Bangkok and holds the key road junction two hexes east. Bangkok is pretty much islolated now (there is an escape route along the coast to the south), so I think Miller has to decide whether to stay and fight, turning the campaign into a siege, or whether to evacuate. I frankly don't know what he'll choose to do.

(in reply to AcePylut)

Post #: 1446

RE: Drums along the Straits - 4/16/2010 8:27:09 PM

Canoerebel

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To update about the KB after looking at the file and issuing orders for the next two-day turn:

The KB remains a hex or two west of Makassar and some transports appear to be approaching Kendari (looks like a re-supply mission by the Japanese). From the "conduct" of the KB over the past eight days, and the current configuration of forces, it appears to me that Miller is simply fearful that Allied LBA can clobber anything that approaches Kendari. That's not the case (mainly because Allied LBA is piss-poor against ships and because some of those little island bases I have built up in proximity to Kendari don't have base forces yet).

As for why Miller chose to very "publicly" transit the Makassar Straits for this mission, my best guess is that he feels the need to re-supply Kendari is urgent and that this was the shortest route.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1447

RE: Drums along the Straits - 4/16/2010 8:29:30 PM

witpqs

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Seems like a decent sub target.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1448

RE: Drums along the Straits - 4/16/2010 9:29:56 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

But recon now shows 200 aircraft at Manado, which we shut down long ago and which shows 100% damage.� So, Allied 4EB will divide attention between Kendari and Manado over the next two-day turn.� The Allies will be sending in several reinforcement convoys to a number of forward bases (Sidate, Talaud Island, etc.) so there will be exposure to air attack.� The Allied 4EB�port strike at Davao damaged and sank four or five ACM.

One Reason I'm Leary of Island Hopping:� The sudden appearance of 200 Japanese aircraft at Manado is one reason I'm so leary of bypassing major Japanese bases in the DEI.� It's too easy to reopen the bases if the Allies halt bombing briefly to focus on other locales.� Once I "liquidate" Manado and Kendari, the Allies should have a safe LOC in the region and I can move forward.

Canoerebel,

Long time, no post. Seems as though things have been moving along nicely for you, particularly in Burma / Thailand. Keep up the pressure.

Seems as though you haven't seen a large number of kamikazes in your game. Miller is probably converting large numbers of daitai / chutai to the cause, as these can be a very effective weapon, particularly when they're applied in large numbers to a small group of targets. If I wanted to employ them in theatre, I'd think about putting about 200 of them in someplace to mess up a landing / resupply mission.

My two bits: I'll lay you dollars to donuts that the majority of those 200 aircraft on Menado are kamikazes. Miller may be trying a combined antishipping mission with his aircraft carriers and the LBA kamikazes at Menado.

In some ways, I think a failure to launch all kamikaze aircraft from a damaged / overstacked a/f may be a good thing. The unit(s) can be withdrawn, reconstituted with recently trained pilots and rebased forward easier if they aren't 100% destroyed by destruction of a full launch.

Why doncha blow up the runway there for a few days before moving some ships anywhere within 10 hexes?

_____________________________

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1449

RE: Drums along the Straits - 4/17/2010 2:02:44 AM

Canoerebel

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3/16/44 and 3/17/44

A heck of alot going on in the DEI - with potential for a big battle if Miller wants it badly enough...and he may.

Chickenboy: You could be right - I haven't seen much of kamikazees thus far, but Miller is banking them you can bet. The big Allied raids on the Manado and Kendari airfields have only destroyed fighters on the ground (Franks and Tojos mainly).

KB:� The KB suddenly moved forward, close to Kendari.� The hex occupied by the KB shows only combat ships and carriers - no transports - so I'm wondering if this is an offensive group rather than an escort group.� As mentioned previously, the Allies have alot of ships in the northern DEI running reinforcements to the forward bases, plus five or six CA/CL TFs (defensive) and three CVE TFs totaling 12 CVE.� Miller expressed utter frustration at the fact that he had hundreds of strike aircraft within range of juicy targets "but only 5% flew."� (He did manage to sink a handful of transports here and there).� Now the KB is in a position where it can block the path to safety (Darwin) that my CVE TFs would have to take.� So, is Miller frustrated enough - and anxious enough to strike -that he will commit the KB into a region protected by lots of big Allied airbases?� We shall see.

Redoubt Morotai:� On the assumption that Miller will leap forward to give battle, the Allies will concentrate all important ships (lots and lots of transports, all combat TFs and the CVE) at Morotai.� In addition to the 100+ fightres on the CVE, Morotai (a level six airbase) has 180 fighters.� Three other big airfields at no more than two hexes can contribute another 200+ fighters.� I have no doubt that the KB can do some big damage if Miller concentrates on Morotai with his carriers and LBA, but he'll lose a truly staggering number of aircraft.

Other Measures:� Some other important ships will seek refuge out of harm's way "just in case."� These include TFs with BBs New Jersey, Iowa, and North Carolina and CV Intrepid.� These ships are dispersed at Darwin or Boela and will head east for now.

Sidate/Manado:� The Allies have�1450 AV at Sidate now - 1400 are 100% prepped for Manado and 50 AV are prepped for Sidate.� 41st Infantry Division, 100% prepped for Manado, is aboard transports at Morotai waiting for the coast to clear and praying that the heavens don't fall in around them over the next two days.� Additional Manado-prepped troops - probably another 750 to 1000 AV - are at Boela, Sorong, and Morotai.� I could be in�a position to move on Manado in a week or so if the KB clears the area without doing major damage or is itself heavily damaged.

Enemy airfields within range of Morotai:� I believe Manado and Kendari are closed.� Leowek (on Celebes between these two) is a level four base.� There's another Celebes base a bit further away and both Davao and Babeldaob are within range to contribute LBA.

So, batten down the hatches.� The KB may remain around Kendari (and thus out of harm's way) or may move toward Ceram or the Moluccas to give battle in which case alot of fighting will take place.

Thailand/Burma:� Lots of troops on the move for both sides.� To this point no indication that the Japanese intend to pull out of either Tavoy or Bangkok.� I think the the bulk of the Allied troops should be in position to move into both hexes in about ten days.

China:� Miller is moving and probing in an effort to find weaknesses.� IJ paratroops took Ankang (near Sian) temporarily, but lost it when the bulk of a Chinese army showed up.� Another small Japanese contingent is nosing around Liuchow but will soon find itself in the midst of a sizeable Chinese army. The Allies have intentions of moving on Nanning.� Currently that city is garrisoned by six IJA units that have easily held off an equal number of Chinese.� But some 3000 AV of Chinese units headed that way from Hengyang and Changsha.� I would like to bust through Nanning to threaten Vietnam from the north while the British and Indians and Africans are threating from the west.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/17/2010 2:03:47 AM >

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 1450

2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/17/2010 5:51:26 PM

Canoerebel

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3/18/44 and 3/19/44

The KB did close to engage the Allied "redoubt" at Morotai. I'm not sure yet who won - probably the Japanese tactically and perhaps the Allies strategically. Both sides probably have some grumbling to do, but overall I'd say this helps the Allies go forward due to significant attrition to IJN aircraft.

Most of the fighting took place on the 18th, with two major IJN raids and two decent sized Allied raids. The two Japanese first:

1) IJN No. 1 = 114 Zero, 104 Jill and 144 Judy vs. 370 fighters of all sorts, but these are mostly good aircraft with high-experience pilots. I like the odds, but definately not the results: The Japanese lose 49 aircraft, the Allies 3, and the following ships take damage: CVE Casablanca 1TT; CVE Anzio 7 B and 1 TT; CVE Liscome Bay 3 B, 1 TT; CVE Manila Bay 2 B; DD DeHaven 2 B; DD Porter 3 B.

2) IJN No. 2 = 45 Z, 81 Jill, 69 Judy vs. 152 fighters. The Japanese lose 61, the Allies 3. CVE Manila Bay takes another B and a kamikaze hit; CA Canberra 1 k; xAP Fiona 2 B; CVE Kalinin Bay 1 B; xAP Van Rees 2 B; CVE Barnes 1 B; CL Honolulu 1 TT; LSD Gunstan Hall 1 TT; x AP Tairea 2 B; CA Northhampton 1 TT; AKA Virgo 1 B.

Now for the Allied attacks:

1) Allies No. 1 - 15 fighters and 34 TBF vs. 67 Zero. Allies lose 19 aircraft; no damage inflicted.

2) Allies No. 2 - 55 F, 29 SBD, 30 TBF vs. 41 Z. Allies lose 17 and put 1 TT into CVL Mizuho.

There were many smaller Japanese attacks during these two days - including quite a few by LBA. Total aircraft losses as I count them:

Japanese - 74 Zero, 71 Jill, 63 Judy, 34 Frances, 10 George.
Allies - 63 fighters, 13 TBF, 9 SBD.

I believe six Allied CVE were damaged, with perhaps three sunk (I haven't opened the file yet to see). The Allies also lost an LST (to a sub), maybe a DD, and probably a few transports. The Japanese lost a sub (to an Allied combat TF at Morotai).

Allied LBA also hammered airfields and Kendari and Manado and destroyed quite a few aircraft - mainly Tojo and Frank - on the ground.

While the losses and damage to Allied ships is marked and noted, these are fairly expendable. The damage to IJN air is probably more critical. So I think perhaps this battle leaves the Allies in better shape to go forward. Barring further significant blows, I don't think this disrupts Allied plans at all and probably makes the next contested invasion a bit easier due to attrition to Japanese naval air.

What happens next: I have a bunch of damaged ships at Morotai and most of the Japanese navy in close proxmity. Will the KB hang around? Can it attack again? If so I would expect Miller to send in combat ships. So, do I pull my damaged ships out or leave them at Redoubt Morotai along with as much protection as I can muster? This will be my biggest decision when I work on this next turn. My inclination is to bring in fresh fighters, reorganize undamaged combat ships into protecting TFs, and disband damaged ships into port. I may send some ships (undamaged CVE?) speeding southeast toward another haven - Boela perhaps. But that will depend on where the KB is now and where it can move.

Thailand: Several days ago, 5223 Provisional Tanks occupied the critical road-junction two hexes east of Bangkok. Miller sent a unit that way - turns out to be 1/3rd of a Royal Thai division. This isn't enough to dislodge the Tanks, so Miller will have to reinforce if he wants to reopen this road. The Allies, in turn, may do the same as several new units are about to reach Ayuthia, the city just north of Bangkok.

P.S. The performance of Allied air in the 2nd Battle of Morotai left much to be desired. 307 top-notch fighers vs. 114 Zero and 250 strike aircraft and the Japanese only lose 49 planes and hit seven warships? This is par for the course from what I've seen in AE. I remain suspicious that good CAP underperforms, but there are so many other factors that may enter into the results that I can't be absolutely positive. Also, Allied strike aircraft continue to perform absolutely horribly.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1451

RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/17/2010 5:53:39 PM

Canoerebel

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Here's Miller's take on the battle: "I'm not sure if the last turn was good or bad for me, looks like I sank 4 CVEs and a bunch of other stuff at a cost 400 a/c..."

Looks like this battle is hard to evaluate, but if the Japanese lost 400 aircraft to take, in essence, four CVE, then strategically this was an Allied victory, and tactically perhaps a marginal Japanese victory.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1452

RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/17/2010 5:56:44 PM

Q-Ball

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RE: Aircraft performance, my experience is different with both CAP and Allied strike; both are pretty effective. (though, you can get strikes through CAP, unlike WITP, which I think is an improvement). Is your PILOT QUALITY up to snuff? I know you had some issues in that regard earlier. Front-line pilots should be around 70 in primary skill, or you're going to suffer substandard results.

Unlike RL, the Japanese can suffer alot of aircraft losses before it has a long-term impact. If Miller is thorough on his pilot management, he can absorb alot of losses.

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Post #: 1453

RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/17/2010 6:01:09 PM

Canoerebel

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Many of my LBA fighter squadrons on the front lines have Experience in the high 60s now - 68, 69, etc. I'm sure their a-2-a skills are also very high since they've been on the front lines constantly engaged in battles of one sort or another for many months.

As for the Japanese, Miller has suffered so many losses over the past year that I think his IJN pilot quality is fairly low now. He can replace the frames and pilots, and they can still overwhelm the Allies at a single point by sheer weight of numbers (as this battle proves), but I do think he's hurting a bit.

(in reply to Q-Ball)

Post #: 1454

RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/17/2010 7:54:29 PM

Canoerebel

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Upon review of the file and issuing orders for the next two-day turn, some additional thoughts about the Second Battle of Morotai:

1) Definately a tactical Japanese victory - the Japanese certainly outperformed the Allies and dished out a decent amount of damage to ships.
2) Definately a strategic Allied victory - it appears that the Japanese lost a total of about 600 aircraft over two days. The Allies lost three CVE with a fourth suffering moderately heavy damage. The Allies also lost one DD and a handful of smaller transports. Most of the other damage - for instance to the three or four cruisers hit - was light. Also, while losing the three CVE, the Allies had four more arriving at Darwin.

What's next:
1) I'm pretty sure the KB will retire (either to the Philippines or Brunei).
2) The two remaining Allied CVE TFs at Morotai will skedaddle to Boela along with one combat TF and some fast transport TFs.
3) Transports at Sorong are loading troops 100% prepped for Manado. 41st Division (also 100% prepped) remains aboard transports at Morotai. As soon as the KB vacates the area, the Allies will resume the shuttle of troops to Sidate. Within ten days I expect the Allies army at Sidate to move on Manado.
4) Once the lift to Sidate/Manado is complete, all transports will be assigned to pick up the troops prepped for Dadjangas and Davao (both on Mindanao). Most of these troops are at Ternate and Darwin.
5) CVs Illustrious and Intrepid are at Darwin. Saratoga and Bunker Hill will arrive within a week. Hornet will arrive in a few weeks.
6) BBs North Carolina, Indiana, Iowa and New Jersey are at Darwin.
7) The Allies are almost ready to move into the Philippines.
8) The Port Blair invasion force will leave Trincomalee in three or four days.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1455

RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/17/2010 9:40:21 PM

Jim D Burns

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
1)� I'm pretty sure the KB will retire (either to the Philippines or Brunei).�

I think it�s a mistake for you to assume your opponent is hurting after this fight. If he�s been diligent about training his pilots all game, by now he has a very large reserve of decent pilots and he can easily out produce the US in planes, so there won�t be a problem replacing these losses for him.

Until you can overwhelm him and cause such massive air losses as to critically reduce his trained reserves pool in a sustain nature for several months straight, I think it�s safe to assume he will be ready to repeat this attack again very soon.

Don�t get caught up in thinking Japan in game has the same problems Japan did historically. They don�t, this is a balanced game, not an historically accurate one, thus Japan will be able to keep hitting you very hard well in to 1945.

What this battle does give you, is an idea of what to expect from his current alpha strike capability. You need to make your plans for trying to decisively hurt him with this level of expected force to deal with in the future. Once you can overcome it, then you can start turning on the heat and trying to attrit his pilot pools.

But for now it looks like Japan is still just as powerful as the US in any one area on the map that it decides to commit itself. And unlike history, he�ll have plenty of pilots and planes to replace his losses with now, so he can probably keep these kinds of attacks up for the rest of the game unless you can manage to sink his CVs.

Jim

_____________________________

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1456

RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 4:21:31 AM

Canoerebel

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3/20/44 and 3/21/44

Jim: Thanks for giving me your thoughts, though the news seems grim to this Allied player. Okay, it sounds like the one way that the Allies can truly whittle away Japanese strength is to sink ships, because they don't come back. This turn saw some marked progress in that regard, though both sides took plenty of lumps:

2nd Battle of Morotai (continued): This time Miller committed his combat ships - in the form of multiple CA/CL/DD TFs - targeting Allied shipping at Morotai and Sorong. The Allies, in turn, had about four or five good CA/DD or CL/DD TFs guarding Morotai, but Sorong was open. The Japanese ships just kept coming in a suicidal frenzy. The Japanese took massive losses but nevertheless managed to penetrate the combat ship screen to rough up a number of transports and smaller ships.

Japanese Damage: As best I can detemine, the Japanese lost: CA two (Myoko and Hagura), CL two (Jintsu and Yakagi), DD eight; with heavy damage to: CA two (Nachi, which may go down, and Kumano), CL two, and DD eight.

Allied Combat Ships Damaged: The Allies lost: CA one (Houston), CL one (Nashville), DD three, DE two, PF one; with heavy damage to: CL four; DD seven; DMS one.

Transports and Smaller Ships: The Allies suffered heavy damage to 7 APA, two LSD (one went under), three LCI (two went under), one AMC (sunk), one AM (sunk), two AP (one sunk), one SC, two xAP, eleven xAK. I haven't check the file, yet, so a few of these damaged ships may have sunk.

Impact: The Japanese were already short on combat ships, especially cruisers, so this should set Miller back (and this jibes with his email comments). The Allies took plenty of hits, but nothing critical. Just as with the big IJN carrier raid battle of the two previous days, this leaves the Allies in better position to move forward. In both cases, the battles were bloody and tough and the Japanese performed pretty well. Moreover, this show's Miller resolve (perhaps bordering on desperation) to strike before the odds grow worse. Considering that the Allies just went up against the entire KB with essentially 12 CVE and a bunch of CL and DD, the Allies did pretty darn well. In a matter of ten days or two weeks, the Allies will be bringing fleet carriers, battleships, and CAs forward as they move on the Philippines.

(in reply to Jim D Burns)

Post #: 1457

RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 9:01:54 AM

FatR

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I don't think the repeated loss of 300-400 pilots in one turn is easily replaceable. In fact, if I'm not forgetting anything, including the attack on Darwin in the summer of 1943, KB was committed only 3 times. This still seems a bit much, as IJN simply doesn't have enough "training" restricted units in Home Islands. However, if Japanese naval aviation is not pressured into heavy day-to-day fighting, Miller certainly can use some or many of his frontline squadrons as de-facto training units, drawing pilots for carriers from them. Of course, having KB mostly intact helps him greatly to concentrate masses of planes against key points.

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 12:20:20 PM

Galahad78

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Ouch!! Those 7 damaged APAs hurt, will you be able to put them online back quickly?

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 1:21:01 PM

JohnDillworth

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Canoerebel,
Were the kamikazes that attacked the CVE's coming form the KB or were they land based? Also, once you get your CV's and BB's in the near future, would you be comfortable going up aginst the KB? I just don't see how Miller can continue to replace that many carrier bases attack aircraft and remain a threat. I agree these look like 2 srategic wins. Can't spek for miller but I think if he had it to do over he would not accept the losses he took for the damage he inflicted. I think he might have been counting on putting a few CV's in dry dock for a while.

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 2:17:01 PM

Athius

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Canoerebel, what kind of zero's was he deploying? (5B or 5c's? ) And what do you think of their performance?

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 5:30:54 PM

Canoerebel

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Athius: The combat report just says that they are A6M5. These were based on the IJN's big carriers, so whatever they are they would be Miller's best models.

JohnDillworth: I don't think these kamikazee attacks were from kami-dedicated squadrons. There were just a few kami strikes, so I think they were naval strike missiosn in which a few pilots individually decided to give their lives for the emporer.

Galahad: I lost two APA during the four day air/naval battle - one was heavily damaged by strike aircraft and later sunk by a sub. The other was a victim of the naval clash. The remaining damaged APA (perhaps five or six) suffered light to moderate damage. I'll need a little time to get them to the yards at Sydney, but once there they'll repair fairly quickly.

The 2nd Battle of Morotai was a huge, huge battle. Miller's ships and aircraft performed well, both sides suffered considerable damage, and yet...the Allies weren't really fighting with the first team. More than anything else, I think that's why I am shrugging off the losses as a strategic Allied victory. The Japanese came with their first team carriers, combat ships, and LBA. The Allies countered with first team air but junior varsity carriers and combat ships.

Here's Miller's email summary of the battle: "I have mulled over the last couple of turns and perhaps it has not worked out as bad as I had thought. I have put a big dent in your CVE cover for any upcoming invasion, and it will take you a week or two to regroup your transport fleets which will be scattered all over the place at the moment........Just a shame I could'nt sink few more of those APAs....."

Due to the arrival of five CVE at Darwin while the battle was ongoing, the Allies are actually stronger in CVEs in theater than they were before (not as strong as they WOULD have been had they not lost carriers, of course). As for the transports, the losses suffered, which were pretty heavy, were "forward ships" the Allies were using to shuffle troops around as I prepare for the next offensive. The bulk of the Allied transport fleet lies at Darwin and Boela, so this battle has little impact on Allied lift capacity. In fact, 41st Division aboard transports at Morotai will proceed to Sidate (adjacent to Manado) tomorrow, as will transports at Sorong loaded with an Aussie brigade and transports at Boela loaded with 6th Marines.

In theater, the Allies currently have: four fleet CV (Victorious, Saratoga, Bunker Hill and Intrepid) with Hornet due in about ten days; seven CVL with Bataan accompanying Hornet; and 17 CVE. Two other CVE damaged in the recent battle will need yard time - one is lightly damaged the other moderately heavy. The battle didn't involved BBs. The Japanese suffered further serious attrition to their CA/CL fleet that they can't afford and heavy losses to DD. The Allies lost some DD and CL, but considerably less than the Japanese.

IJN power was thus seriously eroded. The battle resulted in the Allies having a comparatively stronger surface combat capability. That is, of course, important in upcoming naval engagements and contested amphibious operations. Miller needs to maintain enough escorts for his carriers, so it seems probable that he'll have to carefully consider before committing his combat ships in future engagements. That would be great.

The wildcard is air power. If, as John Burns opines, the Japanese can constantly replace heavy battle losses...well, that's going to be a tough thing for the Allies (and certainly non-historical). The Allies still cannot go face to face with the Japanese in air combat. But the Allies have to advance, so we'll take whatever the game dishes.

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 5:40:52 PM

Q-Ball

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I think Miller was ahead until the surface phase; he can replace all those planes, but cruisers/DD losses hurt, particularly the cruisers. The Japanese Heavy CAs are in many ways the core of the IJN surface fleet, so taking down 2-3 of them is important.

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 6:01:05 PM

Canoerebel

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I've never played the game as the Japanese, so I only have a general idea as to IJN cruiser strength. Here's a ist of what's confirmed sunk to date (and any of you IJ players please chime in as to how hard-hit you think Miller is in this regard):

CA: Maya, Kinugasa, Furutaka, Chokai, Chikuma, Atago, Suzuya, Aoba, Myoko, Hagura (with Nachi a possibility).
CS: Chitose
CL: 13 total

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 6:14:20 PM

Canoerebel

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3/22/44 and 3/23/44

Miller disengaged, so things were a bit quieter, but subs were active.

Mutual Destruction: Japanese subs put a TT in CA Baltimore, which had been heading to the front lines, an CL St. Louis, which was retiring after taking light damage in the big battle. But the Allies got the better of things, for Grouper put two TT in CVL Mizuho, which had taken one TT in the battle, and Tarpon put two TT into CL Ninoru.

Celebes: The bevy of transports ferrying troops to Sidate weren't molested by enemy air or ships. In a few days the Allies will have 2000+ AV present and will move on Manado. I hope this will be sufficient to take the base, but if not another 500 AV 100% prepped will be available.

Thailand/Burma: Still no sign of the Japanese pulling out of Tavoy and Bangkok although both cities are semi-isolated and will become tougher for the Japanese to supply. The Allies are bringing troops forward as quickly as the road allow. Enough Allied troops will be present to advance into the Tavoy hex in about four days. As for Bangkok, I want to strengthen the ring of troops around the city. Then, when sufficient base forces arrive at forward bases like Ayuthia, Pisanoluke, and Rahaeng, the air campaign will begin in earnest.

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 6:19:47 PM

Canoerebel

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Wow, I just opened a fresh Scenario Two to see how many CA the Japanese have and get during the game. The total is just 18. Miller has lost at least ten and perhaps 11 (if very badly damaged Nachi went under).

He has most of the KB intact, so won't he have some tough decisions in allocating his remaining CA for carrier escort and combat task forces?

He also only has a handful of BB left, so I think Miller is really hurting in terms of major combat ships.

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 6:31:06 PM

Smeulders

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I'm guessing you will use this information to your advantage very well, but may I suggest you go raiding in other areas with surface ships. Any convoys you engage will be very lightly defended by surface ships, as he simply doesn't have many left. This will also force him to divert many good strike craft to other areas as they must protect his shipping if you go raiding.

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 7:05:05 PM

Canoerebel

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Smeulders, good idea. I'll form some CL/DD TFs and see what I can do.

Some final "macro" thoughts about the recent Battle of Morotai:

1) My decisions are certainly subject to second-guessing. I did not think Miller would chance the massed LBA around Morotai, so I came up with the "Redoubt Morotai" defense - I sent all my ships in the area there, along with plenty of combat ships, and had something close to 400 first-quality fighters available in that hex and the surrounding two hexes. I thought it was enough. I was wrong. Nor did I think Miller would send combat ships into Morotai, but I felt sure the number I had on hand was sufficient for whatever happened.

2) Miller's decisions are subject to second-guessing, but I think he can be exonerated for creatively using his force before the odds become much worse. However, at several points in the game he has launched big raids against Allied bases - Darwin and Morotai being the best examples. As we all know, if you have to fight it's helpful to fight in and over your own base where your damaged ships can immediately take refuge and many pilots of downed aircraft live to fight again. At some point soon the Allies have to stick their necks out a bit to cross open waters to Mindanao and Miller probably would have been better served using the time to build up his defenses, then striking at the beachhead when the time came.

3) At some point in the game the Allies ought to (have to) "break the back" of the Japanese - ie, administer a thrashing so severe that the Japanese can't recover. At that point, the Allies can move forward at their own choosing, limitied mainly by logistics rather than the Japanese military. We're not there yet, by any means. Japanese air and carrier forces remain very strong. But we're very close in terms of combat ships.

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 7:05:53 PM

paullus99

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Losing those cruisers is bad - they are quick (faster than his BBs) & really put up good numbers in surface actions or as CV escorts. He's going to miss them when you further attrit his air wings & you take on the KB next time around.

I think he's really going to be surprised when you just keep moving forward like these battles never occurred. You're losing ships you can afford to lose, while he is really putting himself behind the eight-ball every time his surface fleet takes a hit. If you can sucker him into a repeat performance (and your continued advance makes that fairly likely, if he wants to try to make it more expensive for you), and have additional "A" team SCTF & your carriers at hand, you might just put a stake in him.

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RE: 2nd Battle of Morotai - 4/18/2010 7:53:03 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

JohnDillworth: I don't think these kamikazee attacks were from kami-dedicated squadrons. There were just a few kami strikes, so I think they were naval strike missiosn in which a few pilots individually decided to give their lives for the emporer.

Since Miller is training, and losing, hundreds of dive bomber and torpedo bomber pilots each time he attacks I wonder if if would be a valid strategy to load up the KB with 1/3 crack fighter pilots and 2/3 kamikazes? Typically the first strike does most of the damage. is it quicker to train kamikazes? do they need to be carrier trained? Probably will ask this in the main thread after removing identifying information.
thanks

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