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RE: Buyer's Remorse

 
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RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/21/2010 6:56:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Miller is pretty cautious about airfield size, and most of these bases are size six or seven, meaning they can handle 300 to 350 aircraft.

I'm resting six or seven B-24 squadrons at Sorong and Babo to hit Babeldaob's airield in a few days.  (My 4EB have alot on their plate - they're currently keeping Manado, Kendari, and Makassar airfields closed).

The KB showed up again off the east coast of Mindanao.  All those carriers and airfields gives the island the appearance of a bristling fortress.  My carriers are down below Ceram.  There is an outside chance the KB could close if Miller was crazy enough to sail right into the heart of the Allied airfield network.  Miller is bold and sometimes desperate, but acting on the supposition that he won't go crazy this early in the game, I'm going to proceed with the carrier/transport ship movements that will lead to the landings at Kolako in four or five days.  My carriers will move a bit further south and I'll hold my breath a bit while Miller runs the turn later this afternoon.

It was frustrating to get so close to invading Dadjangas, then pulling everything back, and then pulling everything back even further to unload and re-load with Kendari-prepped troops.  Actually, though, things are going pretty smoothly and loading at Darwin should begin next turn.

(in reply to Smeulders)
Post #: 1501
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/21/2010 7:07:42 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Q-Ball.  That's the plan.

The thought of facing 1,500 - maybe 2,000! - Japanese aircraft is daunting.  If I brought forward and maximized my LBA LRCAP, I might be able to put 400 fighters over the beach.  Honestly, I think that would mean perhaps 200 Japanese aircraft downed in wave one, with hundreds getting through to smash everything in sight, not to mention carriers and combat ships close enough to be included.  In subsequent waves the Japanese might lose hundred of aircraft; maybe as many as 1,000.  But the Allies would lose scores, possibly hundreds, of ships.  I can't afford that.

The ability of the IJ player to easily replace pilots at will, and the porousness of CAP, makes AE a much different game than WitP (and much different than the real war).


This AAR is interesting in that it shows just how limiting the lack of Allies' production variability is in the game. In RL the Allies absolutley buried the Japanese in a wave of steel. In your game you're the one running on a tight budget, hemmed in by fear of losses.

You've been masterfully maneuvering for many months now, stepping forward in the DEI with a strategic goal of the southern PI, then up to the China coast and thus to the bombing the HI. But he has turned turtle, and you've just reached the shell. You can pivot to Java, but won't he do the same thing there? He can move his aircraft faster than you can position transports and prep troops. A war of maneuver is fine, but if he won't play you have to go get him, and you can't afford to with Allied production being fixed. Meanwhile, he has unmolested internal lines of communication steadily feeding HI industry.

But in game world, the Japanese production imbalances vis a vis history are in only one area--aircraft and pilots. There he can make you dance to his tune, which, in moving up through the DEI, you've had to do. And you've done the planning and execution very well. But I think that you've run the string out.

BUT, in every other area of his economy besides the air war, he is as limited as you are, pretty much. He can't get more merchant ships in the pipeline. He can't get more cruisers, subs, or escorts. And without ships, his aircraft eventually--maybe long in the future, but eventually--wither. Sink his ships and you sink him. Don't play the airplane game. Small islands and dot hexes to make airfields are part of the airplane game. Even positioning to strat bomb Soerbaja is going to go poorly for you if he can run unlimited-production-CAP in there and keep it in supply.

Maybe you should take a land war pause for 3-4 months, use your (now) far better and more numerous surface ship stocks, and go hunt down his merchant marine from new, odd directions. Small, 3-4 ship DD hunter-killer groups have low DL, speed, and low VP loss if they get jumped. But they take out under-escorted xAK formations like butter. He can't escort everything, everywhere. Accept losses to put his merchants away and you'll see benefits in the air war.

I know your subs have underperformed, but take another look at their deployments. Patch 3 made IJN ASW very deadly, or maybe it's just WAD 1944 IJN ASW (I'm losing 5-ish subs a month in September 1944), but subs still sink ships before they die.

The only way to beat the game's unhistoric airplane game is to choke it at the source. If his air units can get supply on those distant bases, you'll never have the quantity or quality to knock them down and out. You have to attack him where he's vulnerable in numbers, and that's merchant hulls. Sink them and the planes sit on the ramp. Eventually, in late 1945 maybe, but eventually.

On that too, I would press forward in China, no matter the losses. You can't think of Chinese troops as you do the rest of the Allies. Use them, let them be killed, and they'll eat his supplies and point stocks as they die. Even at 1:4 or 1:5 Chinese troops kill Japanese squads and force supply consumption as the IJA units replace. Don't worry about taking hexes in China. Just bleed him out in the countryside. Sit on his supply routes and make him come to you.

I think you'll probably pivot to Java anyway, and it might work. But I think the DEI showed (and I will emphasize again that you did all you could there within the game's constraints) that a land-based stepping-stone campaign just avoids the inevitable confrontation, one where he has the short-lines advantage IF he is in supply. If you get in range of Java for strat bombing, you'll do it. But my experience now with B-29s is they get 1-2 good missions, and then are down for maintenance for up to 2-weeks per plane. (Yes, that's right. Two weeks.) Strat bombing isn't historical either.

Others have commented that AE is a "naval" game, while WITP was an "airplane" game. I think it's time to go naval on his behind.

But I also think, knowing you through this AAR, that you'll go ahead and try strat bombing Java.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1502
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/21/2010 7:58:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Wow, Bullwinkle, that you for an insightful, helpful, and encouraging post.  I'll try to answer your question by addressing Allied strategy given recent developments:

1.  Utilize strategic bombing to hit oil, refineries, and shipyards that the Allies don't plan to use (Soerabaja and Batavia chief among them).

2.  Take most of Celebes and establish big airfields for strategic bombing and to choke off Japanese traffic to Balikpan, Samarinda, and Tarakan until the Allies can take those bases.  Towards that end, Manado will fall soon; Garantola, Kolako, Polopa, Watampone, and Madjene are currently vacant and will make nice airbases; and the Allies have a big army prepped for Kendari.  I probably won't mess with Makassar.

3.  After Celebes, the next likely targets are Balikpan (two infantry divisions already prepped for that target leave San Diego tomorrow), Samarinda, Tarakan and some of the island bases between Borneo and Mindanao.

4.  The Allies have - or are very close to - closing down the Makassar Strait so that the KB has to sail around Borneo to reach Java, or vice versa to reach the Philippines.  That takes time and the Allies have the interior lines in that regard.  I don't think he has near the network of airfileds on Celebes, southern Borneo, and eastern Java, so they don't pose as grave a threat as Mindanao.  Also, I understand base forces are pretty scarce for the Japanese, so I hope that if he's loaded up Mindanao he's short elsewhere.

5.  If Miller shifts everything south, I'll move north.  Given the right circumstances, the Allies can conduct a "lightning" invasion of Dadjangas.  It's very close to Morotai, Manado (which the Allies will soon have) and Talaud Island (just went to level six airfield).  Using 4EB to close down a Japanese airfield or two, and utilizing the quick-unloading APA, LST, and LCI would allow a force to arrive and unload before Miller could react.  So I'll remain alert to this possibility.

6.  Allied subs have been much more effective of late, in particular against tankers. 

7. The Allies have now destroyed nearly 100 Japanese subs.  They are still a concern (Miller likes to horde them and then flood a zone concurrently with an attack), but they have been noteably more scarce over the past few months with the exception of the recent Second Battle of Morotai.

8.  Good idea on the CL/DD TFs.  I just tried such a raid at Makassar, but the merchant ships withdrew.  However, the combat ships destroyed to mini-subs.   I'll try more of this.

9. You're right about Japanese ASW.  That patch or hot fix resulted in vast numbers of sinkings of Allied subs.  I had something like five destroyed in the first year, another 20 in the second year, and probably 50 in the third year.  Far, far more subs than the Allies lost in the real war.

10.  I'm nervous about China - I just had back-to-back instances of huge stacks of Chinese troops take massive, horrid losses against much, much smaller Japanese armies (at Kulako and then Nanning).  I don't mind losing troops, but I'm worried about having enough left to stop any Japanese counterattack.  Miller has little armies on the move and he's proving for weaknesses.  I am rounding up a few more Nanning-prepped troops and will try another attack there within a week.
 

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1503
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/21/2010 9:03:50 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wow, Bullwinkle, that you for an insightful, helpful, and encouraging post.  I'll try to answer your question by addressing Allied strategy given recent developments:

1.  Utilize strategic bombing to hit oil, refineries, and shipyards that the Allies don't plan to use (Soerabaja and Batavia chief among them).

2.  Take most of Celebes and establish big airfields for strategic bombing and to choke off Japanese traffic to Balikpan, Samarinda, and Tarakan until the Allies can take those bases.  Towards that end, Manado will fall soon; Garantola, Kolako, Polopa, Watampone, and Madjene are currently vacant and will make nice airbases; and the Allies have a big army prepped for Kendari.  I probably won't mess with Makassar.

3.  After Celebes, the next likely targets are Balikpan (two infantry divisions already prepped for that target leave San Diego tomorrow), Samarinda, Tarakan and some of the island bases between Borneo and Mindanao.

4.  The Allies have - or are very close to - closing down the Makassar Strait so that the KB has to sail around Borneo to reach Java, or vice versa to reach the Philippines.  That takes time and the Allies have the interior lines in that regard.  I don't think he has near the network of airfileds on Celebes, southern Borneo, and eastern Java, so they don't pose as grave a threat as Mindanao.  Also, I understand base forces are pretty scarce for the Japanese, so I hope that if he's loaded up Mindanao he's short elsewhere.

5.  If Miller shifts everything south, I'll move north.  Given the right circumstances, the Allies can conduct a "lightning" invasion of Dadjangas.  It's very close to Morotai, Manado (which the Allies will soon have) and Talaud Island (just went to level six airfield).  Using 4EB to close down a Japanese airfield or two, and utilizing the quick-unloading APA, LST, and LCI would allow a force to arrive and unload before Miller could react.  So I'll remain alert to this possibility.

6.  Allied subs have been much more effective of late, in particular against tankers. 

7. The Allies have now destroyed nearly 100 Japanese subs.  They are still a concern (Miller likes to horde them and then flood a zone concurrently with an attack), but they have been noteably more scarce over the past few months with the exception of the recent Second Battle of Morotai.

8.  Good idea on the CL/DD TFs.  I just tried such a raid at Makassar, but the merchant ships withdrew.  However, the combat ships destroyed to mini-subs.   I'll try more of this.

9. You're right about Japanese ASW.  That patch or hot fix resulted in vast numbers of sinkings of Allied subs.  I had something like five destroyed in the first year, another 20 in the second year, and probably 50 in the third year.  Far, far more subs than the Allies lost in the real war.

10.  I'm nervous about China - I just had back-to-back instances of huge stacks of Chinese troops take massive, horrid losses against much, much smaller Japanese armies (at Kulako and then Nanning).  I don't mind losing troops, but I'm worried about having enough left to stop any Japanese counterattack.  Miller has little armies on the move and he's proving for weaknesses.  I am rounding up a few more Nanning-prepped troops and will try another attack there within a week.
 


Couple of comments and I'll get out of the way and watch. Ref your numbers above:

1. Perhaps a not too good point-of-reference, but directional: I own the IO at this point. I sent a 4-CV TF (2 USN, 2RN plus 15 escorts; about 150,000 fuel) down the west side of Sumatra, and bombed Palembang oil centers west-to-east. Two days of strikes. Dive-bombed, so results might have been different from altitude, but I lost about 1/6 of total air wings to CAP, flak, and barrage balloons (hate them.) In two days I achieved 19 Oil hits (out of 900+.) Granted that 4E perofrmance would be different, but maybe not that different considering total air frames versus bomb load, plus 4E aviation support needs. I think fire should play a bigger role in Oil center strat strikes, but there it is. Just a data point.

2. Tac bombing in range is good enough to shut down straits if you have the recon. 4E anti-shipping bombing isn't worth the damage IMO. If he loses Balikpapan that will help you, but not hurt him much, so long as he has northern Borneo and Palembang intact. (And/or some tankers.)

3. Will help you IF you can get the fuel out and past Soerbaja air. Or don't get it out. Balikpapan, with an AD and a pant-load of AA units, would be an excellent DD raider base for both the Java and South China Seas. I have a seven TF gaggle out of Darwin and headed to Balikpapan right now. After three years it will be nice to move the tankers forward from, I don't know . . . Cleveland?

4. I hope you're right about eastern Java. There are about three Air 6s, an Air 7 and Soerbaja is an Air 9. Plus a 3 and I think a 1. It's a dense air environment if he has aviation support to make them work. And you can expect Soerbaja to have dense flak as well (plus a very busy balloon maker.)

5. A foothold in the PI would be nice, but be careful what you wish for. (Or re-watch "A Bridge Too Far.") If you take it you have to supply it. Unless you're willing to commit the whole knife drawer to the PI I'd be wary of taking a base there "just because." The PI is an LCU sponge. I'm going straight for Manila next--ignoring the whole southern PI en masse--and I have seven divisions plus trim assigned to get in from the southeast via Legaspi and Naga. And I'm not sure that's enough to do it.

6. Good. I peeked at the Japanese side about six game weeks ago, and the AI had only six tankers left, and no AOs. But as you say, the cost in subs has been terrible.

7. I haven't sunk nearly that many, but I've taken away advance sub bases that you haven't, such as Saipan. They're a nuisance, but not a Level-1 strategic concern as they were in 1942.

8. I'm really serious about this. I think you could step up the surface raiding 500% and not really hurt your commerce escorting. Work out of Mid-Pac maybe, with a Replenishment group running a racetrack (DDs don't drink much.) Consider even running 1-ship raider TFs all over creation. Impossible to see (but will be reported to him in FOW as an 8-ship TF full of cruisers and BBs) and they can bleed him. Even if you lose a DE or three, and even if they don't sink anything, they can run up his system damage, flood his repair yards, take some merchants off-line for 60-90 days. And any escorts sunk will help your subs. Right now I'm commonly running my subs into Transport TFs with 2 xAKLs and 5-7 Es and PBs. One reason I'm losing subs, but it points up the desparation of the AI when he's running xAKLs all the way out to Marcus because that's all he has left.

I know you don't want to know about OOBs, but I DID peek, and all I'll say is the Japanese merchant fleet has a glass jaw that's glassier than you might think. I consciously went hunting merchants out of Saipan with CVs and DD TFs into the Jimas, and believe me when I say that 70 xAKs is a HUGE hit to him in 1944. And not that hard to get with radar and aggressive COs.

9. Ditto for me.

10. Keep at it, but don't go for cities AT ALL. Stay in the weeds, and sit on rail lines. I have a 300k+ stack totally out of supply at Kalgan (took a LONG time to walk there, years), entrenched. He can't get them out, and they're like a cocked gun pointing in three directions. But I also have dozens of 1-corps or smaller units running all over the place. They don't seem to get tired (must be eating grass too), but they can cut off a logistics trace like nobody's business. I don't bombard, rarely attack, but they're eating up China. When I do fight I lose. Except, I really win. His vehicle points are long gone, and armament points are precious. If he wants to counterattack, let him. Suck him in deeper, then go around behind. That's what the Mongolian horse cavalry is for, JEB Stuart!

Back to my armchair . . .

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1504
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/21/2010 11:16:57 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Interesting interchange between you two.  I like the ideas that are being discussed.  I'll go one more...

Canoerebel, you are certainly deep in the war of attrition that you desired in the DEI.  You're holding a great deal of Miller's attention and OOB hostage there.  You've inflicted grievous losses on him over the past several months and captured a number of bases that promise strategic leverage.  Your score has reflected this change in fortune too.  You're in much better shape there than 6 months ago, so that's going OK.

What are Miller's strengths now?  Not a surface fleet.  Toasted and sunk.  Carriers are probably at parity-at least right now.  I'd say he has four:

1.  LCU numbers-I think
2.  Key internal lines of communication / quality bases for launching counterattacks
3.  Huge reserves of untapped Kamikazes
4.  Hyper-trained pilots / hyper-produced aircraft

Numbers 3 and 4, when combined, will make any point landing a misery.  Your trepidation is just.  You're going to get slaughtered if you try to CAP an invasion force whilest in range of multiple Kamikaze nests.  I'd encourage you to reconsider any such landings you have in the works right now in the DEI.

You are making MUCH better progress than anticipated in Burma / Thailand. 

Rather than reinforce attrition, why not reinforce success?  Have you thought about bringing a bunch of LCUs up from Australia through the IO to Rangoon?  Reinforce your lines and keep driving him back towards Singapore, Saigon and CRB.  Cut off the DEI from the North, if that is his weak point and your strong point.  6-10 divisions applied here could really crush his lines and sent him back in rout in multiple directions.  Your armored units will grind Jap brains into their bogey wheels.

Kamikazes will have much less effect if he is unable to get at your primary reinforcement points.  He's not going to move KB from the DEI so long as you're poised there as you are.  You'll have a multitude of good airfields upon which to base your supernumerary base units, medium / heavy bombers and fighter aircraft.  Supply will be over a better road and (eventually) railroad network than island hopping.  If you can press in force to Saigon, he's done.  You can close the sea routes north of Borneo.

I think you're close here.  Maybe real close.

I see lots more bloodletting in the DEI for the forseeable future.  Consider a different primary axis of attack?

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 4/21/2010 11:17:43 PM >

_____________________________


(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1505
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/22/2010 2:03:04 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

You are making MUCH better progress than anticipated in Burma / Thailand. 

Rather than reinforce attrition, why not reinforce success?  Have you thought about bringing a bunch of LCUs up from Australia through the IO to Rangoon?  Reinforce your lines and keep driving him back towards Singapore, Saigon and CRB.  Cut off the DEI from the North, if that is his weak point and your strong point.  6-10 divisions applied here could really crush his lines and sent him back in rout in multiple directions.  Your armored units will grind Jap brains into their bogey wheels.



I like this too. I'm about a month past taking Bangkok, and my concern that land-based supply wouldn't flow in there in enough quantity has been removed. Once past Bangkok the paths south through Indo-China are good armor country, and you're under constant 1944-fighter-types coverage.

I'm not sure taking Saigon ends things in the S. China Sea, however, if Miller hand-manages Borneo and Palembang convoy routes to hug the coasts. It would make them much more difficult to be sure.

Given your excellent points about the PI I think a major move there just turns into a meatgrinder of Eastern Front proportions. Several months ago I said to Canoerebel that I thought Miller would try to channel him north to Miller's strength, and away from his jewels in Java. I thought the strength would be the Marianas and Pelileu. Instead, he has built Fortress Philippines. I'd avoid it. Finish the easy DEI take-downs, then sit there looking angry as you say. But look for dinner somewhere else.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1506
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/22/2010 2:35:35 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Far be it for me to discuss how to dismantle the Empire but my suggestion is an echo of a thought above. Miller is concentrated in ONE area. He cannot do that in two areas. Keep your CVEs and LBA to maintain the DEI/Philippines pressure and then move your CV-CVLs and STRIKE from a new direction. Hit the Marianas with no wanring. Bring enough troops to grab one of main bases and smash him there.

Force the Japanese to fight on two fronts. This is what Nimitz and Dugout Doug acheived during the real thing. Most Allied players see one massed thrust as the way to go, however, I disagree. What you are doing GIVES Miller a chance to fight with a decent chance of inflicting serious harm. Change the playing board. He won't be able to conpensate.

Trust in that...


_____________________________



Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

Reluctant Admiral Mod:
https://sites.google.com/site/reluctantadmiral/

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1507
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/22/2010 4:22:07 AM   
bklooste

 

Posts: 1104
Joined: 4/10/2006
Status: offline 		Agree with John an attack from the North is always attractive.

Also i would use a stack of expendable AKLs with a fragment and a Capped fake landing , each time he uses Kamis (or not)  he looses a stack of planes.

His first wavess of Kamis will be very nasty since this is scenario 2 ( which is not a historical scen.) and he has a massive trained pool this also means he is less likely to use his Kamis uness it is a critical target. So dummy/fake invasions on critical target could suck in a lot of planes.



_____________________________

Underdog Fanboy

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 1508
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/22/2010 2:49:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I am grateful that you guys would take this much time to follow the game, mull things over, and then give me the benefits of your ideas.  Lots of good analysis - I didn't see a single item that was off target - and some nifty suggestions.  I have been considerating variations of some of these ideas, but others were totally new and had me banging my palm against my head saying, "Duh!  Why didn't I think of that!"

Melding your ideas and suggestions with some of mine - along with the countless details about the map and the situation that I can't give without making posts longer even than this one, here are "adjusted" strategies and considerations:

I.  Strategic
   A.  Oil - Soerabaja, Samarinda, and Tarakan oil and refineries are in good condition.  Balikpan oil is 229 (72)
        and the refinery is 229 (72); Palembang oil is 697 (204) and the refinery is 790 (231).  The damage is
        not insignificant, right?  The Allies are very close to shutting down traffic to Samarinda and Balikpan and
        should be able to use 4EB to destroy Soerabaja when Kendari falls.
   B.  Airfields - Japan's airfield network in south Borneo, east Java, and south Celebes isn't nearly as tight and
       overlapping as the Philippines.  Some bigger bases are Balikpan (6), Samarinda (6), Loewek (4),
       Bandjermasin (3), Dem Passar (3), Loemadjag, at Java's eastern tip (4), Soerabaja (6), Madoen (4),
       Semereng (4).  Those fields are spread out, so the Allies could use 4EB to close one or a cluster to move
       on imporant targets.  Also, there are many vacant or lightly garrisoned bases with big airbase potential in
       the region - I expect the Allies to pick off Kolako, Polopo, Watampone, Madjene, and Gorantolo within ten
       days.  In particular, airfields at Donggala and Madjene will control either end of the Makassar Strait,
       eliminating Japanaese traffic to Balikpan and Samarinda.
   C. Two Front War - By virtue of the Allies closing on Borneo, Miller has to send the KB around Borneo's 
       west side if he wishes to use carriers to contest moves around Java.  So the Allies have essentially
       created a two-front war:  I can move on the Mindanao/Jolo region if the KB heads to Java; if the KB
       remains in the Philippines the Allies can continue the current course, which near term will choke off oil from
       Balikpan, Samarinda, and Soerabaja, and medium term will give the Allies bases to pound Palembang.
   D. Carrier Parity - As soon as CVs Yorktown and Constellation arrive in theater (two weeks), the Allies will
       have carrier parity with the Japanese.   I won't be sending my carriers forward against massed LBA and
       the KB, but neither will Miller be doing the opposite.  Whenever the KB is confirmed on one side of Borneo,
       the Allies can raid on the other.  I am also contemplating at some point a Trojan Horse operation in
       which fleet carriers are loaded with fighters and sent into no-man's-land under massed LBA LRCAP.
   E. Lift Capacity - This has been a sore spot for the Allies since the Paramushiro invasion.  I have enough to
      handle perhaps 1.5 full-scale invasions at a time, but the shortage is one reason I am reluctant to mount
      an operation far, far away - like Marcus or Wake or Sumatra - right now.  I can't afford to lose many
      transports and I don't want to reduce my ability to advance in the DEI as long as there are ripe
      opportunities as now around the Java/Borneo/Celebes region. 
   F. Turtle Shell - Since 1942, the plan has been to gain ports on the South China Sea - Puerto Princessa,
       etc. - and  then to invade coastal China.  That is still my objective, but if Miller is able to create a
       barrier -turtle shell, as Bullwinkle might say - in the Java/Borneo region as fearsome as the one at
       Mindanao, I like Chickenboy's idea of moving an army to SEAC via Rangoon or Moulmein.

II.  Operational

   A.  Mindanao - After giving it much thought, I have decided to keep intact the armies prepped for Dadjangas,
       Cotabato, and Davao.  This gives the Allies the option of moving north if Miller sends the KB south.
   B.  Northern Celebes - This major base should fall in the near future.  The forces freed up will probably prep
        for the bases around Tarakan, Tawi Tawi, etc.  This also gives the Allies the choice of a more northern
        vector of attack near term, or the ability to join in a thrust north from Balikpan in the medium term.
   C. Central Celebes - A Marine regiment is on the way to take vacant Gorantolo.  I have begun prepping units
       to move on lightly to moderately garrisoned Dongala.  I'll bypass the strong IJA force at Loewek.
   D. Southern Celebes - Amphibious landings tomorrow at Kolaka (a level two port/zero airfield [can be built to
       seven] on the same peninsula as Kendari.  In three days, paratroops will hit unoccupied Watampone and
       Madjene (same peninsula as Makassar).  Infantry units to reinforce these bases are loading at Darwin.  An
       army prepped for Kendari begins loading at Darwin in two days.
   E. Islands East of Java - The Allies have troops prepped for Mataram, Raba, and Waingapu, all lightly
       defended by the Japanese.   As soon as the Allies have transports available after loading the Kendari
       force, they'll pick off these bases.
   F. Allied combat ships - You guys gave me excellent suggestions about forming raiding forces all over.  I'm
      organizing several TFs plus replenishment TFs.

III.  The Enemy - How will Miller react?  He knows Mindanao was my target and the KB remains parked off the east coast (a perfect location for the Allied force moving on the Kendari region).  Yet he's got to protect the SRA too.  He'll have tough decisions to make that should open some opportunites to the Allies.   

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/22/2010 2:52:30 PM >

(in reply to bklooste)
Post #: 1509
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/22/2010 3:41:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The northern DEI as of 4/13/44




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1510
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/22/2010 3:55:41 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Southern DEI:




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1511
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/22/2010 8:20:12 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Canoerebel,

Would you write in detail about the air war in 44. What is working and what is not? What did you expect and what surprised you? Also, some discussion on the merits of some of the second generation Allied aircraft, thunderbolts, hellcats, corsairs, lightnings. How are your older aircraft working out? Are the P39s and P40s still useful or do you use them for training? How about your medium bombers? Can you keep your medium squadrons full and do the eventually sink ships when the skill level gets better?

Are you meeting newer Japanese planes and how do they fare, tojo, tony, jack, george and so on?

Like you, I am playing scenario #2 so I know the results are a bit skewed due to better production for the Japanese player.

_____________________________

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Sigismund of Luxemburg

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1512
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/22/2010 8:44:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Would you write in detail about the air war in 44. What is working and what is not? What did you expect and what surprised you? Also, some discussion on the merits of some of the second generation Allied aircraft, thunderbolts, hellcats, corsairs, lightnings. How are your older aircraft working out? Are the P39s and P40s still useful or do you use them for training? How about your medium bombers? Can you keep your medium squadrons full and do the eventually sink ships when the skill level gets better?

Are you meeting newer Japanese planes and how do they fare, tojo, tony, jack, george and so on?

Like you, I am playing scenario #2 so I know the results are a bit skewed due to better production for the Japanese player.


The air war in April 1944 is a very competitive. With respect to fighters, the Japanese win anything fought over their base; the Allies usually win anything fought over their base.

The Japanese can "flood the zone." That is, select any single point to overwhelm with carrier-based and land-based air. This is effective and can penetrate even massive CAP consisting of top-notch fighters and very good pilots. This allows the Japanese to win carrier battles, because enough Japanese planes get through to do alot of damage.

Allied 2EB and naval strike aircraft are ineffective in naval strikes against massed carriers protected by stout CAP. This is another reason the Allies are unlikely to win "parity" carrier battles.

Allied 4EB are very, very effective in suppressing airfields, bombing ports, and shooting down enemy fighters.

B-25, B-26, and A-26 (or is it A-20?) are pretty worthless. They don't hit ships and they don't do the job on anti-base missions.

Japanese Betty and Frances torpedo bombers are effective at long-range anti-ship action. This gives the Japanese a weapon that the Allies lack.

My frontline fighters are now mostly P-47, P-38H, P-38J, Hellcats, and Corsairs, supplemented by some Spitifire VIII, Kittyhawk IV, and a few P-40K, P-40N, and Hurricane IIc squadrons. Most of my pilots have experience from the mid 60s to low 70s. These fighters do well over their own base, but perform unsatisfactorily in sweep and escort missions. I found the P-40K effective and sturdy back when it was my most common frontline fighter. It has better range than the P-40N, so enjoy 'em while you have 'em.

As for the Japanese, I'm seeing Frank, George, Tojo, and A6M5 mainly. I can't tell any difference in their performance. They each handle things as outlined above.

My overall impression of AE Scenario Two in April 1944 is that the two sides are roughly equal in terms of numbers of planes and performance. The Allies have an important advantage in 4EB, but the Japanese have an important advantage in naval strike aircraft - dive bombers, torpedo bombers, and the Betty/Frances medium bombers. Overall, I think AE is very poor in terms of modeling the actual conditions the Japanese dealt with - and the Allies enjoyed - in the air war in 1943, 1944 and 1945.

The Allies have a relatively nominal lead in planes downed - 13,700 Allied planes downed to 15,500 Japanese planes. This is a surprisingly, arguably ridiclously, close margin for this late in the war. Miller has suffered massive losses in at least six or eight big carrier raids - occasions when he lost 250 to 800 aircraft in a single turn. Yet the spread has actually narrowed over the past half year. Arg.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/22/2010 8:55:48 PM >

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 1513
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/22/2010 11:35:10 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/13/44 and 4/14/44
 
Just one turn today, and fairly quiet, which meant things are going well for the Allies:

Celebes:  Allied landings at opposite ends of Celebes Garontolo and Kolako) are unopposed and the bases are not garrisoned.  Kolako is a level two port and all the troops slated for Kendari will land here.  250 AV 100% prepped came ashore, so there won't be a counterattack.  Tomorrow, paratroops will assault the undefended bases of Madjene and Watampone on the the "Makassar Peninsula" of Celebes.  Finally, a deliberate attack at Manado doesn't touch four forts, nearly breaks even at 1:1, and inflicts equal casualties.  Those are favorable developments, and 150 fresh AV have just landed at the adjacent hex.

Kendari Invasion Force:  Enough transports arrived at Darwin to begin loading 6th and 32nd Divisions, 161 Regiment, 34 Combat Engineers, 45 Av. Base Force, 6th Army HQ, and 225, 7 USMC and 198 Field Artillery Regiments.  Next turn, newly arriving transports will load 38th Infantry Division and a host of support units.  Many of these units should arrive at Kolako in about a week as long as the KB stays away.

KB:  Juked north a bit and now stands on the Mindanao's northeast coast.  I would like her to stay right there, in plain sight, while the Allies focus on southern Celebes.

Allied Carriers:  CV Franklin just arrived at Townsville.  CVs Constellation and Yorktown are nearing Luganville.  Most of the rest of the Allied carriers are just south of Kolako.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1514
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 7:48:34 AM   
Galahad78

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 9/28/2009
Status: offline 		There haven't been sub attacks against the KB? With 6 subs "in range" (at least that I could see in your screenshot), one would guess that at least one captain could be lucky 

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1515
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 2:03:39 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Thanks for the evaluation. It is sort of what I am seeing although I am not as far along. I don't know how much it has to do with this particular scenario but I am seeing it in most of these AARs.

In general for AE the air war mechanics are better over WITP but overall the whole effect that I see in AE actually are a step below WITP. That is, like you said there is no longer any real similarity to the actual air war in the Pacific. It has become more of a fantasy game where I really wanted a more historical feel. I don't know if this is an accident or if they did it on purpose to make the Japanese side more "fun" for game play purposes.

It seems like a lot of Allied players are complaining about the AA routine for Japanese ships. I don't much understand it but it looks to really skew carrier combat.

Allied medium bombers are a serious dissapointment. I can't find any real use for them as they just seem to get shot down so easily and don't seem suited for much. The only consolation for me is that Japanese bombers are dead meat whenever they are caught by Allied fighters. But of course, the Japanese can replace bombers whereas there really is no flow of replacments for the Allies.

_____________________________

I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.

Sigismund of Luxemburg

(in reply to Galahad78)
Post #: 1516
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 2:59:34 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

hanks for the evaluation. It is sort of what I am seeing although I am not as far along. I don't know how much it has to do with this particular scenario but I am seeing it in most of these AARs.

In general for AE the air war mechanics are better over WITP but overall the whole effect that I see in AE actually are a step below WITP. That is, like you said there is no longer any real similarity to the actual air war in the Pacific. It has become more of a fantasy game where I really wanted a more historical feel. I don't know if this is an accident or if they did it on purpose to make the Japanese side more "fun" for game play purposes.

It seems like a lot of Allied players are complaining about the AA routine for Japanese ships. I don't much understand it but it looks to really skew carrier combat.

Allied medium bombers are a serious dissapointment. I can't find any real use for them as they just seem to get shot down so easily and don't seem suited for much. The only consolation for me is that Japanese bombers are dead meat whenever they are caught by Allied fighters. But of course, the Japanese can replace bombers whereas there really is no flow of replacments for the Allies.


agree on all points. B-25's took out a lot of shipping and that is not moddled particularly well. As more players get their games to late in the war we are seeing a greater deviation for real life. I don't know if it is by design. I suspect the developers did not have enough data to see the effects in 44 and 45. Perhaps an adjustment is in order. Similar to all the early war adjustments we saw when the game first came out.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 1517
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 3:08:41 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		This and that....

1.  Galahad:  Though the KB has steamed in circles off Mindanao for a week, my subs haven't gotten lucky.  They've hit carriers in the past, though, so I have my fingers crossed.

2.  crsutton:  Yes, it makes for a very competitive and fun game, but the Allied player had better wipe the "things will be kind of like they were in the real war" slate clean and know that AE is very different. 

3.  Do other things compensate for the flaws in the air war so that the game is "okay"?  In my game where it's April '44, for instance, the Allies are besieging Bangkok and are closing on Java and Borneo.  Nothing's going on in CenPac or NoPac only because I chose a much different path than the real war.  But I think Allied progress can be compared favorably to their actual progress in the real war.  I'll know more by the end of '44.

4.  I'm not sure the Allies can win the air war, but they can certainly win the war at sea.  Miller is really hurting for battleships, cruisers, destroyers, and submarines.  I think it's severely limiting his ability to defend all the places he needs to defend.  At the moment he's strong in the Philippines but seems week around Java.

5.  The single vector attack into the DEI has disadvantages - distance of capital ships from repair yards and ability of the Japanese to concentrate being two - but it also has important advantages.  One of the advantages is the ability to shift quickly from one internal vector of attack to another.  Here, I had the luxury of halting the invasion of Mindanao and immeditately proceeding with the invasion of Southern Celebes.  That's very helpful.  Another key factor is that the Allies have total saturation in air patrols and reconnaissance.  I've known right where the KB has been for weeks, now, which helped me evaluate the Mindanoe invasion and gauge the possibilities to switch to Celebes.

6.  Small decisions tough to make:  I believe the abundance of Allied transports and combat ships, including two BB, at Morotai appears to be such a threat to Mindanao that it has froze the KB in place.  I love this, but I'm also wary of leaving things static for too long.  I'm concerned that Miller might decide to attack and overwhelm the defenses despite 200+ fighters at Morotai and another 200+ at adjacent bases.  So I've shaken things up - most of the transports and the two BB TFs will retire.  That will be conclusive proof that the real threat is to the Kendari region, not Mindanao, so Miller may move south now. 

7.  Chequered History:  CA Astoria has had a difficult voyage in the game.  As noted in previous posts, she was badly damaged in the Allied carrier raid on Java in April '42; she underwent repairs at Capetown; she was torpedoed by a sub just one hex from Colombo; she underwent repairs at Colombo; she then sailed to the Coral Sea in late '43; she took part in several important battle and took at least two TT from Frances torpedo bombers while serving escort duty near Ambon; she barely made it to Boela, where she remained for months (due to sub elevated sub threat) to reduce SYS damage - FLT damage was 76; finally, she made it to Darwin; when SYS damage was down to zero, she departed for Sydney with a two-DD escort; two hexes from Darwin her FLT damage had increased to 86; she immediately returned to Darwin, where she'll likely spend the rest of the war unless the just-arrived ARD ships are sufficient to handle heavy FLT and ENG damage.

8.  With the Allied landings at Kolako nearly complete, tomorrow paratroops will assault vacant Madjene and Watampone (Macassar arm of Celebes).  The carriers will retire towards Darwin, but in a few days will rendezvous with the transports carrying the Kendari-prepped army.  These moves will depend, in part, on what the KB does in the meantime.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/23/2010 3:09:51 PM >

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 1518
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 6:33:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/15/44 and 4/16/44
 
Surface Raiders: A toast to you gents that have urged me to go raiding.  I formed two raiding forces - one to hit Soerabaja from the carrier TFs protecting the Kolaka operation and one to hit Rabaul from Milne Bay.  The latter didn't encounter targets, but here's what happened at Soerabaja:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Soerabaja at 56,104, Range 12,000 Yards 
Japanese Ships
     AO Sunosaki
     TK Eiyo Maru, Shell hits 1
     TK Hakko Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK Nihon Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK San Diego Maru, Shell hits 2
     AO Shinkoku Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK Amagi Maru #2, Shell hits 1
     TK Kinmon Maru
     TK Butsu Maru, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
     TK Tsushima Maru
     SC Ch 37
     SC Ch 38, Shell hits 1
     SC Ch 39, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
Allied Ships
     DD Gansevoort
     DD Peary
     DD Van Galen
     DD Banckert
     DD Piet Hein
     DD Van Ghent
     DD Rotherham

Four of the DDs then hit mines, but I think all will survive, so the raid was definately worthwhile.

Four Bases in One Day:  Ground troops took Kolako and Gorontolo while the 'chutes battalions took Madjene and Watampone.

What's Next for the Japanese?:  These conquests, the surface combat raid, and the withdawal of the Allied BBs and transports from up at Morotai should convince Miller (if he wasn't already) that the Allies are serous about Celebes and vicinity.  If Miller sends the KB down here, I want to be ready to switch back to Mindanao.  To do that, I need some transports freed up.  Right now most are committed to the Kolako and Kendari landings, but the former is nearly finished now.  Within a week I should have enough transports to handle an invasion of Mindanao should that become desirable.  But if Miller keeps the KB in the Philippines the Allies will be satisfied with continuing the advance in the Java/Borneo/Celebes triangle.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1519
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 7:03:39 PM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

In general for AE the air war mechanics are better over WITP but overall the whole effect that I see in AE actually are a step below WITP.

I absolutely love this game but very much in agreement here.


quote:


That is, like you said there is no longer any real similarity to the actual air war in the Pacific. It has become more of a fantasy game where I really wanted a more historical feel. I don't know if this is an accident or if they did it on purpose to make the Japanese side more "fun" for game play purposes.


..and here as well.



Rebel, thanks for the interesting AAR to follow, as far as your medium bombers have you had any luck with em skip bombing?
I have around 25% of my USAAF medium bombers set for training low naval bombing, I'm wondering if I'm wasting my time.

Looking forward to reading more as you go on.

_____________________________

"There’s no such thing as a bitter person who keeps the bitterness to himself.” ~ Erwin Lutzer

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 1520
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 8:04:33 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/15/44 and 4/16/44
 
Surface Raiders: A toast to you gents that have urged me to go raiding.  I formed two raiding forces - one to hit Soerabaja from the carrier TFs protecting the Kolaka operation and one to hit Rabaul from Milne Bay.  The latter didn't encounter targets, but here's what happened at Soerabaja:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Soerabaja at 56,104, Range 12,000 Yards 
Japanese Ships
     AO Sunosaki
     TK Eiyo Maru, Shell hits 1
     TK Hakko Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK Nihon Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK San Diego Maru, Shell hits 2
     AO Shinkoku Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK Amagi Maru #2, Shell hits 1
     TK Kinmon Maru
     TK Butsu Maru, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
     TK Tsushima Maru
     SC Ch 37
     SC Ch 38, Shell hits 1
     SC Ch 39, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
Allied Ships
     DD Gansevoort
     DD Peary
     DD Van Galen
     DD Banckert
     DD Piet Hein
     DD Van Ghent
     DD Rotherham

Four of the DDs then hit mines, but I think all will survive, so the raid was definately worthwhile.



Doom on him . . .

Excellent results. Bravo Zulu.

Three SCs for a crown jewel tanker TF? He's hurting for escorts.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 4/23/2010 8:09:05 PM >

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1521
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 9:45:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		We're only doing one turn today because Miller has a life and had plans for this evening, the English rascal.  A few notes as I review the turn file and begin issuing orders:

1.  The KB is sighted far to the NE of Mindanoa on an easterly heading.  This is odd and I'm very fortunate to catch this report before she disappeared into the vastness of CenPac, else I would have figured she was somewhere around Manila or possibly heading around Borneo to deal with the threat to Java.

2. So what's Miller up to?  If this is really the KB and it's really heading east, there can be only two reasons:  Miller is planning to invade someplace like Midway or Luganville (unlikely and, as far as I'm concerned, acceptable because the absence of the KB from the DEI would help me far more than the loss of bases in CenPac or SoPac would hurt me) or he's going to raid the sea lanes.  This is a definate possiblity and, of course, a concern as there's vast amounts of Allied shipping moving to and from Oz and the West Coast via either the Pago Pago route or the Tahiti route.  I don't have anything that could meet a big carrier force, so I'll have to try to keep my shipping dispersed.

3.  If it's a raid, Miller doesn't need the entire KB.  So I need to watch my flanks - especially around Kendari -for a surprise raid.  I should have about four days before the KB could go around Borneo, so I'll see what I can accomplish in the meantime and then I'll try to set up picket ships to guard against disaster.

4.  The Allied force at Manado is 2150 AV with 350 fresh AV set to arrive in a day or two.  I think 2500 AV will be sufficient to begin reducing the defenses more expeditiously.

5.  5223 Provisional Tank Battalion, the scourge of SEAC, just arrived at Chanthaburi (a Gulf of Siam port east of Bangkok) and found it undefended.  So the Allies will pick up their first port open to the the South China Sea.  Not sure what to make of that, yet, but I'm mulling it over.  Miller still shows no sign of withdrawing from Tavoy or Bangkok.

6.  In the Bay of Bengal, the Allies have a CVL and a CVE available to provide some CAP for the Port Blair invasion force that has been steaming in circles far to the west of Port Blair due to the recent Mini-KB raid.  The two Allied carriers carry about 40 Corsairs and Hellcats, enough to persuade me that the invasion can proceed with a high probability of success unless the Mini-KB returns.  Right now recon reports this IJN carrier force at Singapore, which makes sense if Miller is scrambling to assemble a force to deal with the Allied invasion of South Celebes.  The main threat to the invasion should be LBA from Tavoy and Georgetown, but at long distances Allied CAP may be sufficient to handle the threat or reduce it to manageable levels.  So this operation is on. 

7.  If the Allies pick off Port Blair, the Japanese sea lanes to Tavoy become very, very tenuous.  Miller won't really be able to supply Tavoy, any longer, making an eventual withdrawal more likely.


(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1522
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 10:07:16 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

Four of the DDs then hit mines, but I think all will survive, so the raid was definately worthwhile.

More surface raids! I submit that your TF's are too lare. 2-4 destroyers will do just fine and you should have plenty of them. BTW you radar should be pretty good now. I had a lot of luck sending one of the newer CA's from Pearl into the central pacific. Didn't get sighted and picked up a couple of AK resupply TF's and mauled them. The CA has pretty long range so I could set up a route that took it out of the usual search lanes. It should at lest force miller to think think what you are doing in the central pacific and he ma have to redeploy search aircraft.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1523
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 10:48:23 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

7.  If the Allies pick off Port Blair, the Japanese sea lanes to Tavoy become very, very tenuous.  Miller won't really be able to supply Tavoy, any longer, making an eventual withdrawal more likely.


I had a 1.5 year struggle to get Port Blair, but it's a very nice dirt CV to cut off the northern penninsula, especialy with 1944 bombers.

A thought for your early-1945 bag of tricks:

I usually think of oil in terms of the Big Four (Palembang, north Borneo, Balikpapan, Soerbaja.) In my game, after I got Port Blair, I pretty cheaply picked up Great Nicobar Island, thinking just to extend my flank and provide search against those pesky KB IO raids the AI does. GNI is easily expandable, and I put some tac air in there. Much to my surprise, I soon found nests of tankers running into Sabang, there on the tip. Investigating (i.e. peeking) shows that Sabang has no oil centers, but it's the storage and shipping point for Medan, south on the coast, which has oil centers, but no real storage.

Sabang right now has 999,999 Fuel, 860,000 stored Oil, and 1,580,000 Resources. It doesn't have any refineries. Medan has refineries, but only 20k of oil storage. Sabang is on the very outside of Miller's internal lines of communication, and, as I said, easily reachable with tac air, and/or DD raids from Great Nicobar or Port Blair. I bought-out a bunch of WC DB units and shipped them in via Cape Town. The AI is dumb and keeps sending tankers to their death, but even if you didn't sink ships at least you could deny this boon to Miller if you could grab GNI in the coming months.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 4/23/2010 10:58:45 PM >

_____________________________

The Moose

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Post #: 1524
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/23/2010 11:20:48 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Night Time Surface Combat, near Soerabaja at 56,104, Range 12,000 Yards 
Japanese Ships
     AO Sunosaki
     TK Eiyo Maru, Shell hits 1
     TK Hakko Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK Nihon Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK San Diego Maru, Shell hits 2
     AO Shinkoku Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK Amagi Maru #2, Shell hits 1
     TK Kinmon Maru
     TK Butsu Maru, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
     TK Tsushima Maru
     SC Ch 37
     SC Ch 38, Shell hits 1
     SC Ch 39, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
Allied Ships
     DD Gansevoort
     DD Peary
     DD Van Galen
     DD Banckert
     DD Piet Hein
     DD Van Ghent
     DD Rotherham


Owie owie owie!

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1525
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/24/2010 9:35:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/17/44 to 4/20/44

At a time when the Allies really want "quiet turns" (IE, no KB), these turns were wquiet where it mattered to me most (though the Japanese did score a few hits, drat them).

Southern Celebes:  Two HQ units landed at Kolako and a bunch of transports are arriving there and at Watampone carrying the bulk of the reinforcements.  Now comes the sweating time, for the KB is off the radar.  My best information is that some carrier disappeared into CenPac from the Philippines a few days ago, but that doesn't mean Miller didn't get clever and send the bulk of his carriers around Borneo to hit me.  Also, a sub put one TT in CV Hornet.  So things get dicey now.  I need carrier cover for a few more days, but if the KB has gone around Borneo I don't want to get my clock cleaned.   

Northern Celebes:  Back to back Allied deliberate attacks at Manado dropped forts from four to two, so Manado will probably fall within a week.  This not only gives the Allies a big airbase at a strategic position, it also means Allied 4EB need no longer suppress the level seven airfield.  That frees up alot of B-24 to use against other bases.

Mindanao:  If Miller commits the KB far away from Mindanao - meaning at Java or on a raid in CenPac or SoPac - I want to have the option of proceeding with a "lightning quick" invasion of Dadjangas.  That means I need transports positioned at Boela, where most of the Dadjangas-prepped troops are waiting.  Empty transports have begun to arrive, and many more will be available beginning in two or three days as the bulk of the Kendari army lands at Kolako.  So the Allies should have the capability of mounting an invasion of Mindanao on short notice beginning in about four days.

Thailand:  5223 Tanks took vacant Chanthaburi, a port on the Gulf of Siam.  That's good, but I'm not sure yet what to do with it.

Port Blair:  Frances torpedo aircraft sank BB Queen Elizabeth and several transports after the RN carrier force providing CAP got separated from the main invasion force.  Don't know what happened yet, but perhaps I didn't have the "follow TF" orders correctly configured.

CenPac: PBY Liberator bombers scored some hits on Japanese shipping at Kwajalein, including an AS, AR, and AMC. Miller won't use that port again unless he's willing to commit CAP.

Subs:  Japanese submarines also picked off several of the Allied DD damaged by mines in the Soerabaja raid.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/24/2010 9:42:21 PM >

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1526
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/24/2010 11:07:09 PM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Is this a sign Miller has concentrated against the DEI and is thin on the ground elsewhere?

CenPac: PBY Liberator bombers scored some hits on Japanese shipping at Kwajalein, including an AS, AR, and AMC. Miller won't use that port again unless he's willing to commit CAP.

After adding up your CV numbers, should you be chasing Miller to get rid of the KB, its his main hope at the moment.

At least get him running it around to chew up the fuel he has in his SOPAC/CENPAC bases.


_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1527
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/25/2010 12:45:58 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

At a time when the Allies really want "quiet turns" (IE, no KB), these turns were wquiet where it mattered to me most (though the Japanese did score a few hits, drat them).

Southern Celebes: Two HQ units landed at Kolako and a bunch of transports are arriving there and at Watampone carrying the bulk of the reinforcements. Now comes the sweating time, for the KB is off the radar. My best information is that some carrier disappeared into CenPac from the Philippines a few days ago, but that doesn't mean Miller didn't get clever and send the bulk of his carriers around Borneo to hit me. Also, a sub put one TT in CV Hornet. So things get dicey now. I need carrier cover for a few more days, but if the KB has gone around Borneo I don't want to get my clock cleaned.

Northern Celebes: Back to back Allied deliberate attacks at Manado dropped forts from four to two, so Manado will probably fall within a week. This not only gives the Allies a big airbase at a strategic position, it also means Allied 4EB need no longer suppress the level seven airfield. That frees up alot of B-24 to use against other bases.

Mindanao: If Miller commits the KB far away from Mindanao - meaning at Java or on a raid in CenPac or SoPac - I want to have the option of proceeding with a "lightning quick" invasion of Dadjangas. That means I need transports positioned at Boela, where most of the Dadjangas-prepped troops are waiting. Empty transports have begun to arrive, and many more will be available beginning in two or three days as the bulk of the Kendari army lands at Kolako. So the Allies should have the capability of mounting an invasion of Mindanao on short notice beginning in about four days.

Thailand: 5223 Tanks took vacant Chanthaburi, a port on the Gulf of Siam. That's good, but I'm not sure yet what to do with it.

Port Blair: Frances torpedo aircraft sank BB Queen Elizabeth and several transports after the RN carrier force providing CAP got separated from the main invasion force. Don't know what happened yet, but perhaps I didn't have the "follow TF" orders correctly configured.

CenPac: PBY Liberator bombers scored some hits on Japanese shipping at Kwajalein, including an AS, AR, and AMC. Miller won't use that port again unless he's willing to commit CAP.

Subs: Japanese submarines also picked off several of the Allied DD damaged by mines in the Soerabaja raid.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/24/2010 9:42:21 PM >


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1528
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/25/2010 12:49:19 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

4/17/44 to 4/20/44

At a time when the Allies really want "quiet turns" (IE, no KB), these turns were wquiet where it mattered to me most (though the Japanese did score a few hits, drat them).

Southern Celebes: Two HQ units landed at Kolako and a bunch of transports are arriving there and at Watampone carrying the bulk of the reinforcements. Now comes the sweating time, for the KB is off the radar. My best information is that some carrier disappeared into CenPac from the Philippines a few days ago, but that doesn't mean Miller didn't get clever and send the bulk of his carriers around Borneo to hit me. Also, a sub put one TT in CV Hornet. So things get dicey now. I need carrier cover for a few more days, but if the KB has gone around Borneo I don't want to get my clock cleaned.

Northern Celebes: Back to back Allied deliberate attacks at Manado dropped forts from four to two, so Manado will probably fall within a week. This not only gives the Allies a big airbase at a strategic position, it also means Allied 4EB need no longer suppress the level seven airfield. That frees up alot of B-24 to use against other bases.

Mindanao: If Miller commits the KB far away from Mindanao - meaning at Java or on a raid in CenPac or SoPac - I want to have the option of proceeding with a "lightning quick" invasion of Dadjangas. That means I need transports positioned at Boela, where most of the Dadjangas-prepped troops are waiting. Empty transports have begun to arrive, and many more will be available beginning in two or three days as the bulk of the Kendari army lands at Kolako. So the Allies should have the capability of mounting an invasion of Mindanao on short notice beginning in about four days.

Thailand: 5223 Tanks took vacant Chanthaburi, a port on the Gulf of Siam. That's good, but I'm not sure yet what to do with it.

Port Blair: Frances torpedo aircraft sank BB Queen Elizabeth and several transports after the RN carrier force providing CAP got separated from the main invasion force. Don't know what happened yet, but perhaps I didn't have the "follow TF" orders correctly configured.

CenPac: PBY Liberator bombers scored some hits on Japanese shipping at Kwajalein, including an AS, AR, and AMC. Miller won't use that port again unless he's willing to commit CAP.

Subs: Japanese submarines also picked off several of the Allied DD damaged by mines in the Soerabaja raid.

Thought Miller said something to the effect that " My subs are finished, but they served me well" Putting a fish into a carrier seems like "not quite finished" to me. Subs are still not quite right


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1529
RE: Buyer's Remorse - 4/25/2010 2:18:46 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John, indeed Japanese subs remain a threat and will be for the entire war.  Fortunately, in this case Hornet took only 8 FLT damage, so that was a relief.

Jeff, I hear you, but going hunting for the KB in 1944 isn't an option in my game.  I have carrier parity, I believe, at this point, but were I to take on the KB in a fair fight, here's what would happen:  Allied CAP would savage the massive incoming raid, but scores of strike aircraft would penetrate and the Allies would lose four fleet carriers, four CVL, three CVE, and an assortment of cruisers.  The massive Allied raid would penetrate the CAP and Allies strike aircraft would get one bomb hit on a fleet carrier, one torpedo hit on a CVL, and two bomb hits on a CVE.

If you threw LBA into the mix, the results would be 155% worse, as Japaanese long-range torpedo aircraft are deadly while Allied LBA are useless against shipping (except in port).

Now, part of this equation is due to the fact that the Allies have lost more carriers to date than have the Japanese.  Part of it may also be a miserable failure by the Allied high command to know how the heck to train naval strike aircraft to score hits more than 1% of the time.  But part of it is that the air war in AE is really, really strange.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1530
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