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RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 5:26:16 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Q-Ball vs. Canoerebel:  We're in the process of beginning a game.  I think it will be Scenario 2, and Q-Ball will take the IJ side. 

Just out of curiosity, with as many questions as you've had about the OOB of scenario 2 affecting your gameplay here-why did you opt for this?

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1801
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 5:29:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		"China Gambit" Roster
 
Here's what I have lined up for the invasion of China - so far I have focused mainly on ground troops, but I will devote more time to support troops next turn.  [Note:  I will only be able to carry a fraction of the troops during the invasion - one major decision is whether to concentrate on Hainan Island during the first wave or to go straight for the Swatow/Amoy region):

I.  Hainan Island

a.  Samah:  148 RCT (currently at Sambas); 111 RCT (Singkawang); 364 RCT, 706 Tanks, 77th Division (all at Balikpan); 1 Corps Combat Engineers and 251 Field Artillery (both at Makassar); 55 Coast Defense, 1st West African AA; 871 EAB and 670 Tank Destroyers (all at Darwin).
b. Kiungshan:  44th Tanks and 9th Marines (Balikpan); 671 T.D.; So Pac Air HQ, 2 West African AA, 860 EAB (Darwin).

II.  Coastal China:

a.  Swatow:  7th Division (Balikpan); 38th Division (Kendari); 4th F.A. and 7th EAB (Makassar); 1st Medium F.A., XII Fighter HQ (Darwin).
b.  Chaochow:  7th F.A., XI Art, 632 T.D., 158 RCT (Sampit); 134 F.A. (Makassar); 29 UK Bgde (Kendari).
c.  Amoy:  93 Division and I OZ HQ (Balikpan); XI HQ and 854 EAB (Makassar)
d.  Foochow:  31 Division; II OZ Eng (Balikpan); 43 Divsion; 33 Med Art, 80 A.T. (Morotai).
e.  Kwangchoan:  34 RCT, 8th Marines (Manado); 3rd CB (Darwin).
f.  Wenchow:  23rd and 16 Chindits (Balikpan).
g.  Canton:  32nd Division (Kuching).

III. Pescadores: 41st Division; 1st Filipino; 4th UK Bgde (Balikpan)

At least two more divisions are available:  6th (currently at Billiton Island) and 81st (on transports near Townsville; prepping for Palembang but I may change that to a coast China location and drop the unit at Makassar).

I need lots more base forces.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/23/2010 5:31:24 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1802
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 5:53:44 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		Are you planning on doing much recon before an invasion? I think that once you start snooping around you may tip your hand. It will not be too difficult for him to reinforce if he has the divisions (not so sure he has those or too many home defense fighter groups)

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 1803
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 6:36:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The China Gambit will rely entirely upon surprise and a strong hunch or feeling that Miller won't be expecting it and won't be prepared.  To "feed" Miller's natural suspicion that the Philippines are the next objective, the Allies will increase recon of Mindanao and Luzon bases and I'll be sending more shipping to my forward ports like Manado. 

If Miller anticipates my move on China my hat will be off to him even as I take a whipping.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1804
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 6:40:00 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		I know you had a new cease-fire in effect for a while in China proper. Any chance your Chinese troops could be part of a general advance as well - to keep his front line troops pinned when you make for the coast with the rest of the allies?

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1805
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 6:41:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Well, I expect the attack and pressure on the coast will create some opportunities in interior China.  For sure the Chinese will try to apply pressure at places like Hanoi, Changsha, and Chengtah.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 1806
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 7:24:40 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

The China Gambit will rely entirely upon surprise and a strong hunch or feeling that Miller won't be expecting it and won't be prepared. To "feed" Miller's natural suspicion that the Philippines are the next objective, the Allies will increase recon of Mindanao and Luzon bases and I'll be sending more shipping to my forward ports like Manado.

If Miller anticipates my move on China my hat will be off to him even as I take a whipping.

I wish you luck but I like Millers chances here. I suspect he is waiting to pounce on your next move, probably the Philippines but just maybe Malaysia. His carriers are probably finishing refit I think he will base them in a place that he will be able to hit you no matter where you go. Although his aircraft are all probably stuffed in the Philippines, he should be able to move them in a few turns, kamikazes and all.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1807
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 7:29:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Well, if I'm gonna face them anyhow, I might as well plan on facing them.

I'm pretty sure this operation will catch him totally by surprise.  He'll be able to shift aircraft around, but he'll be short on base forces (I hope).  That will force him to take drastic action to form a defensive line (I hope) which should lead to opportunities and mistakes.

I think Hainan Island's two bases will be lightly held, so I plan to land in force there.  I also want to bring enough troops to quickly follow up with a landing on the mainland, probably at Swatow, as soon as I can get Hainan Island's airfields operational.

If nothing else, seizing Hainan Island will sever Japan from the DEI and give the Allies a huge and unsinkable aircraft carrier/base that will serve as the staging point for future activities.

I like my chances.  :)

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1808
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 8:08:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Of course, John, there's the possibility of you being right and me being wrong.

I just experienced a "hunch" playing out badly (though fortunately on a small scale).  I felt sure that Montok, a base on the island north of Palembang, was undefended, so I landed most of an Aussie brigade by fast transport.  In fact, Yokusuka SNLF is there, so now I'll have to reinforce.

I like playing hunches when a strong feeling develops based upon the flow of the game and knowledge about an opponent's tendencies, but it's carries risks.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1809
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 9:11:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/4/44 and 9/5/44
 
KB?:  An Allied sub reported this action:

ASW attack near Foochow  at 88,60 
Japanese Ships
     BB Yamashiro
     BB Fuso
     CL Oi
     CL Kitakami
     DD Yugiri
     DD Sagiri
     DD Asagiri
     DD Kosugiri
     DD Suresushio
     DD Tatsuyuke
     DD Mikazuki 
Allied Ships
     SS Kete, hits 8,  heavy damage

The Japanese carriers are mostly likely with or close to the IJN BBs.  Since Allied patrol and reconnaisance aircraft are covering most of the Philippines, Taiwan, southern South China Sea, Vietnam, and Malaya areas, Miller most likely is keeping the KB out of sight around Shanghai, Korea, or the Home Islands.

Allied Carriers:  Most TFs are completely replenished, now, but a few still need some time in port.

Raba:  The Allies landed the UK's BFF Brigade here, but the opposition is about equal.  Some tanks will be landing in a few days, but it will take a bit of nudging to seize this island.

Dem Passar:  This base is a little too close to the big IJ airfield at Semereng.  I don't want to risk the troop carriers (including two APAs) that were assigned to this invasion, so I'm scrubbing the assault.  Instead, this Marine regiment will go to Makassar and join the troops prepping for the China Gambit.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1810
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 9:27:44 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I like the boldness of your China Gambit. Brash and could REALLY put the hurt onto your opponent.

There will be a furious response...


_____________________________



Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

Reluctant Admiral Mod:
https://sites.google.com/site/reluctantadmiral/

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1811
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 11:12:00 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

Of course, John, there's the possibility of you being right and me being wrong.

Easy for me to say standing on the sidelines! Carry on and good luck! I am sure this is the first AAR that features a landing on China. The AI would blow a gasket but watching an accomplished human player with resources react to it will be entertaining indeed.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 1812
RE: MVP - 6/23/2010 11:26:10 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I know this falls in the "toot your own horn" category, but it will be the second time that I've invaded China. 

The first occasion was in my WitP match against John III.  The Allies and Japan had previously clashed over Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island.  Then the SEAC Allied troops broke through and managed to eventually and at high cost take Malaya and Sumatra.  Those troops - African, Chinese, Indian, and British - boarded transports and engaged ina series of leap-frogging invasions of coastal China.  Japan was already on the ropes by that late date and the invasions succeeded mightily.

I hope history will repeat itself although this invasion is alot different since the Allies are, in effect, creating a new theater of action whereas in the former game it was really a continuation of the Allied advance through Vietnam.  There won't be any troops and aircrafts providing close support nor will there be any friendly ports in close proximity.

But if the gambit succeeds it will really mess up Japan.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1813
RE: MVP - 6/24/2010 12:19:45 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

I know this falls in the "toot your own horn" category

Sorry, saw a good "toot your own horn" cartoon today:





Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1814
RE: MVP - 6/24/2010 8:25:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/6/44 and 9/7/44
 
There's alot going on behind the scenes - and some things in front - as the Allies continue to prepare for the China Gambit:

Deception:  In an effort to mislead the Japanese as to the next target, the Allies have shifted more reconnaisance aircraft to targets in Luzon, Formosa and even Okinawa.  The Allies also resumed occasional bombing of Babeldaob.  Allied troops have landed at both bases on the island north of Palembang, though both bases are occupied so that conquest will take some effort.  In Vietnam, the Allies are withdrawing from the advance positions at Hue and Vinh to give the appearance that the heat is off a bit (and a tip of the cap to Miller for repositioning troops and establishing a solid defense; I know there were gaps and weaknesses that I could have exploited here, but knowing where they were proved difficult).

Repositioning:  The Allies are busy retrieving units from forward bases like Sorong and Manado to transport them to the staging bases like Darwin, Kendari, Makassar and Balikpan.  The Allies are also transporting base forces to new forward bases like Pontianak, Singkawang, and Kuching and have seriously beefed of fighter protection in that region.  The objective is to ensure that the China Gambit ships can safely transit the Java Sea when the time comes.

Strategic Bombing:  4EB have really worked over Miri's oil production.  I think the facility is down to about 40 good units, which should be eliminated in a week or so.

Future Activity in the DEI:  Japanese forts at Tarkan are down to two and the IJA is suffering 2x casualties during each attack.  This base should fall to the Allies in days.  Once it falls, the Allies will move on Tawai (spelling?), the unoccupied (I think) base just to the north).  The Allies also have a decent force prepping for Miri, and can proceed with that operation when it feels right (probably after the China Gambit).

China Gambit Plan:  When the troop transports, combat ships, and carriers transit the Java Sea, they'll turn north as though Miri/Brunei is the target.  They'll beat drums and bang pans in hopes of drawing the KB into battle.  If that doesn't work, or if it works and the Allies win the ensuing battle, the force will take a sudden hard turn to the left and make for China.  Of course, Miller will be tracking all this.  A few days before D-Day, Allied reconnaisance aircraft in Vietnam and China will target coastal cities to see if Miller is prepared.  If not, the invasion proceeds; if so, I do have the option of recalling the ships and targeting an easier area (Malaya or Vietnam or perhaps Borneo).

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1815
RE: MVP - 6/25/2010 3:57:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/8/44 and 9/9/44
 
Rare Allied LBA Score:  Allied LBA have done very poorly in naval strikes throughout the game due to bad luck, bad pilots, and Miller's tenacious refusal to expose his ships to danger.  On this turn, however, a good LBA TBM squadron newly based at Singkawang put three TT in CL Sendai and scored a few other hits against other ships.  Miller's very short of cruisers, so this action takes on more signficance than it would have early in the game.

Deception:  The Allies continue to ramp up "pressure" against northern Borneo and Mindanao.  Reconnaissance aircraft have just begun targeting places like Jolo, Puerta Princessa, Jesselton, Tawi Tawi.  The Allies have been snooping around other bases including Manila and Cagayan for months.  Now 4EB will hit Jolo's airfield.  B-29s and some B-24s continue to target Miri's oil facilities.

Repositioning:  The repositioning of troops from forward bases to the China Gambit staging bases is nearly complete.  Sorong and Morotai have been cleared and Manado should be cleared within a week.  I'm not quite ready to pull the trigger yet, though.  Some of my carrier TFs at Darwin still haven't topped off fuel and mission sorties.  It will also take some time to allocate transports between the various staging bases.  I haven't figured out yet just how much lift capacity I will have.  That, in turn, will tell me how much, if anything, I can target beyond Hainan Island.  My hope is that I can hit Hainan's two bases and also bring troops for Swatow and Amoy.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/25/2010 3:59:14 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1816
RE: MVP - 6/25/2010 10:38:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/10/44 to 9/15/44
 
China Gambit:  It's time to name this puppy, so the Allied invasion of China will be operation Seven Days.  The Hainan Island part will be Operation White Oak Swamp and the coastal China part will be Operation Malvern Hill.  I've just about finished shuttling troops around.  Over the next few days, I'll reposition transports and begin loading troops.  I think the invasion fleet will be ready to head into the Java Sea by September 25.

Deception:  The Allies continue to recon bases in north Borneo and the Philippines.  A FT TF just landed part of an OZ brigade at a lightly defended Sandakan (Borneo's north coast).  Another small invasion of vacant and nearby Tawau (spelling) will follow in a few days.  LBA has made some sorties vs. shipping around Dadjangas and Brunei with poor results (more about that below).  It appears that the Japanese have strongly reinforced many of the key bases in the area including Miri, Brunei, Jesselton, and Puerto Princessa.  Brunei, in particular, has a massive contingent of aircraft.  All this suggests that Miller anticpates this will be the locus of the next Allied move.

Air Woes:  Any time the Allies assemble a strike force with land-based bombers escorted by top-notch fighters, the Allies come out much the worse.  This has been going on around Bangkok for months and has also occurred with regularity in the DEI.  Allied fighter pilots are mostly in the high 60s and 70s now and they are flying the best aircraft, but they cannot handle Japanese fighters including Tojo and Frank.  This could be a consequence of my neglect of pilot training, but it still doesn't feel right.  Late '44 with top aircraft the Allies ought to easily win 95% of the engagements.  Instead, they come out short that same percentage.  If the problem is my doing, so be it.  I still don't wanna take on pilot training.

Oil: The Allies have just about wiped out oil production and Miri and Brunei.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1817
RE: MVP - 6/25/2010 10:55:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Q-Ball vs. Canoerebel:  We're in the process of beginning a game.  I think it will be Scenario 2, and Q-Ball will take the IJ side. 

Just out of curiosity, with as many questions as you've had about the OOB of scenario 2 affecting your gameplay here-why did you opt for this?


Sorry, Chickenboy, I didn't see this post until just now.

I haven't had any qualms about how the OOB has affected the gameplay. I recognize that it has certain affects, but I'm fine with that.

My qualms have mostly been with bugs or other problems not tied to Scenario Two, but moreso the game itself. Some of those concerns have been addressed; a few still survive.

A year into this match, I was really concerned about the possibility that the glitches might prevent the Allies from have a reasonable shot at winning. China, in particular, was a real mess. But with the fixes and now that I've played deep into 1944 I am satisfied that the Allies can prevail - and sometimes even flourish - despite problems. (Some of the problems cut both ways, but the China problem affected the Allies).

I don't mind giving the Japanese player the advantages provided by Scenario Two. What I would prefer to avoid is inequities that give one side or another a completely unforeseen and non-historic advantage (China; uber Japanese subs that can hang around in Allied ports indefinately; the ability of the Japanese to readily replace massive losses in aircraft; the ability to sabotage a base's industry by evacuating ahead of the enemy so that partisans destroy industry [that's why I didn't pull this ploy]; or moving hordes of Brit and Indian troops into Burma without paying political points [so I didn't do this either]).

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1818
RE: MVP - 6/25/2010 10:59:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
KB:  Still no sign of it.  I have no doubt that Miller is planning a massive CV/LBA kamikazee strike, hoping for something along the lines of Chickenboy's results.






Oops, just saw this too. Maybe it was Bullwinkle rather than you, Chickenboy, that had the recent massive kami attack against a behemoth Allied fleet near the Home Islands in early '45?

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1819
RE: MVP - 6/26/2010 12:55:52 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Allies have begun loading China Gambit (Operation Seven Days) troops at the most distant staging point (Darwin) as follows:

1.  Samah, Hainan Island:  1 West African AA; 116 USN Base Force; 871 EAB; 55 CD; and 670 TD;
2.  Kiungshan, Hainan Island:  860 EAB; 81 USA Infantry Division; 71 RAAF Wing Base Force; US AirSoPac HQ; 2 West African AA; 671 TD; and
3.  Swatow, China:  2 Medium Arty; 1 Medium Arty; 2 Royal Tanks.

Most of the troops slated for these destinations are at Makassar.  They will begin loading next turn.  I hope to have enough transports to also carry troops prepped for Amoy and perhaps Kwangchoan.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1820
RE: MVP - 6/26/2010 2:45:20 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Allies have begun loading China Gambit (Operation Seven Days) troops at the most distant staging point (Darwin) as follows:

1.  Samah, Hainan Island:  1 West African AA; 116 USN Base Force; 871 EAB; 55 CD; and 670 TD;
2.  Kiungshan, Hainan Island:  860 EAB; 81 USA Infantry Division; 71 RAAF Wing Base Force; US AirSoPac HQ; 2 West African AA; 671 TD; and
3.  Swatow, China:  2 Medium Arty; 1 Medium Arty; 2 Royal Tanks.

Most of the troops slated for these destinations are at Makassar.  They will begin loading next turn.  I hope to have enough transports to also carry troops prepped for Amoy and perhaps Kwangchoan.



?? Gaines Mill or Malvern Hill

_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1821
RE: MVP - 6/26/2010 11:29:30 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Hainan Island portion is Operation White Oak Swamp.

The coastal China portion is Operation Malvern Hill.

Hopefully, we'll get a shot at additional moves so that we can have Operations Mechanicsville and Gaines Mill.


(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1822
RE: MVP - 6/26/2010 1:45:22 PM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		I thought your Kuriles battles might have been Gaines Mill.

(The best ACW book I have is Fremantle's biography of Jackson which does a great coverage of this campaign)


_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1823
RE: MVP - 6/26/2010 3:25:05 PM   
erstad

 

Posts: 1944
Joined: 8/3/2004
From: Midwest USA
Status: offline
quote:

the ability to sabotage a base's industry by evacuating ahead of the enemy so that partisans destroy industry


Possible with the initial release, but addressed in one of the patches.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1824
RE: MVP - 6/26/2010 8:07:24 PM   
wpurdom

 

Posts: 476
Joined: 10/27/2000
From: Decatur, GA, USA
Status: offline 		Malvern Hill? Got to be a morale-killing name - a battle bad for the south and uninspiring for the north.

Maybe a switch in names as you progress, like sledgehammer, roundup, overlord?

< Message edited by wpurdom -- 6/26/2010 8:11:20 PM >

(in reply to erstad)
Post #: 1825
RE: MVP - 6/26/2010 10:41:11 PM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Malvern Hill, a bad battle for the south, and a sign that the north could fight, if only its Commanding General wanted to!.

_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

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Post #: 1826
RE: MVP - 6/27/2010 1:13:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/16/44 and 9/17/44
 
Most of the Seven Days (Chna Gambit) carriers depart Darwin tonight - primarily to clear dock space so that the three lagging TFs can top off and replenish mission sorties.  Loading of troops aboard transports at Makassar and Balikpan has commenced.  It appears that I have enough transports to carry troops for Samah, Kiungshan, Swatow and Amoy.  As loading continues over the next few days, I hope I can also scare up enough transports to bring some troops loaded for Kwangchoan.  Here is what's loading at Darwin, Makassar and Balikpan to this point: 

1.  Samah, Hainan Island:  1 West African AA; 116th USN Base Force; 871 EAB; 55 CD; 670 TD; 706 Tanks; 77th USA Infantry Division; 251 FA; 1 Corps Engineers.
2.  Kiungshan, Hainan Island:  860 EAB; 81 USA Infantry Division; 71 RAAF Wing Base Force; US AirSoPac HQ; 2 West African AA; 671 TD;
3.  Swatow, China:  2 Medium Arty; 1 Medium Arty; 2 Royal Tanks; 7th USA Infantry Division.
4.  Amoy, China:  93rd USA Infantry Division; I Oz Corps HQ.

Loading may take six more days.  The invasion fleet should be ready to transit the Java Sea in seven to ten days.  I don't think Ticonderoga or Constellation will arrive in time to participate, so they should form a reserve at Darwin.

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1827
RE: MVP - 6/28/2010 2:33:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/18/44 and 9/19/44
 
The Allies take vacant Tawau (north of Tarakan) and continue small-scale efforts to take Raba (east of Java), Sandakan (north of Tarakan), and Muntok/Toabali (bases on the island north of Palembang).  The Allies continue to recon bases around Miri/Brunei/Jesselton, Mindanoa, and the islands in between.  But the real focus is on Operation Seven Days (the China Gambit) as troops continue to load and ships weigh anchor.  Most of the Allies carriers have taken position near Kendari where they await three TFs that just finished replenishing.  Most of the transports have also weighed anchor and are rendezvouing at points near Kendari and Makassar.  Some additional loading will take place over the next four days.  Here is the updated invasion roster:

1.  Samah, Hainan Island:  1 West African AA; 116th USN Base Force; 871 EAB; 55 CD; 670 TD; 706 Tanks; 77th USA Infantry Division; 251 FA; 1 Corps Engineers.
2.  Kiungshan, Hainan Island:  860 EAB; 81 USA Infantry Division; 71 RAAF Wing Base Force; US AirSoPac HQ; 2 West African AA; 671 TD; 44 Tanks; 9th Marines.
3.  Swatow, China:  2 Medium Arty; 1 Medium Arty; 2 Royal Tanks; 7th USA Infantry Division.
4.  Amoy, China:  93rd USA Infantry Division; I Oz Corps HQ; 854 EAB; XI Corps HQ.
5.  Kwangchoan, China:  3rd Marines.

I hope to load a few more Kwangchoan-prepped units at Pontianak.  I also hope to pick up a few more base forces before departing.  A big transport TF loaded with base forces fresh from San Diego is about to transit the Torres Strait.  I could wait for it, but I'm more likely to proceed into the South China Sea to try to engage the KB when my ships feint towards Miri/Brunei.

If Miller and I play at our normal pace, there will be fireworks this week. 

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1828
RE: MVP - 6/28/2010 9:47:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/20/44 and 9/21/44
 
Deception:  With Miri/Brunie and the islands to the north being the "logical" target of the next Allied invasion, it is gratifying to see that Miller has really loaded up the airfields at Brunei and Puerto Princessa.  To add to this threat perception, the Allies will ramp up 4EB raids on the airfields at Miri and Puerto Princessa tomorrow.  The Allies continue to recon many bases in this region, shifting targets now and then as though really canvasing the region to detect threats and opportunities.

Transit:  Most of the Japanese aircraft formerly based in Java are gone (probably to the airfields just mentioned), which makes the job of transiting the Java Sea easier.

Staging:  All Allied carrier TFs are now present and steaming in circles east of Kendari.  The transports are largely found at Makassar or in TFs at a staging point south of Kendari.  The Allies are still rounding up stray units and suppot ships at various ports as distant as Morotai and Boela, so it will be another four or five days before everything is ready to go.

Recon and Target Vulnerability:  The Allies have good air bases at Ubon and Udon Thani in eastern Siam.  I'll shift recon and patrol aircraft there as soon as the Allied transports complete their feint on Brunei and change course toward Hainan Island.  I will be surprised if Miller has strong garrisons at both bases on Hainan Island.  If he does, I can divert to an easier target.  If he has a strong garrison at one, I will invade at the other.  Once that base is taken, I can land reinforcements and then attack the other by land.

Carrier Clash Pending?:  I assume Miller will throw his carriers into the frey and that a massive battle will take place.  My analysis of ships lost and those still available suggests that he is critically short of cruisers.  This should affect his carrier TF escort situation and will also affect his ability to form good combat TFs. 

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1829
RE: MVP - 6/29/2010 8:20:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/22/44 and 9/23/44
 
Deception:  Allied 4EB hit the airfield and oil production at Miri and clobbered the field at Puerto Princessa, destroying 30 aircraft on the ground (Puerta and Brunei are the two big Japanese airfields).  The next step in the deception will be to flood the area from Miri to Puerta with submarines.

Transit:  A host of kamikazees from Singapore and other airfields savaged some lightly protected transports bringing supplies to Billiton Island.  But with the big Allied airbases at Pontianak, Singkawang, and Kuching I don't think Miller will chance a fight in the Java Sea area.  So I believe the carriers, combat ships and transports can safely transit the Java Sea.

Staging:  The carriers and combat ships will spring west to a point just west of Makassar.  Most of the transports have completed loading now and are gathered either at Makassar or in a convoy heading that way from Lautem.  There are a few laggards including a troop transport TF at Morotai which ought to weigh anchor tonight.  One more convoy needs to load at Makassar (picking up a base force and a big combat engineer unit). Finally, a big convoy carrying four or five base force units is currently transiting the Torres Strait and may be able to catch up with the invasion force before it heads deep into the South China Sea.

The Big Hunch:  I have a good feeling about this invasion from the standpoint that I don't think Miller is expecting a move on coastal China.  I also think the deception plan is working well to reinforce his belief that Borneo, Mindanoa, or one of the islands in between is the target. 

Embarkation Day:  I believe the show will get on the road in three days.  The transports and carriers will head west in close proximity to guard against aerial assault.  The entire group ought to clear the Java Sea within a week.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1830
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