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RE: Strategic Musings - 5/6/2011 6:54:22 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Sounds like you're making the mental transition from 'what can I / do I need to take' to 'what must I hold, where and with what'. I made the same transition lo about October 1942-I think it's a normal time to start thinking about defense and what the next year to 18 months will look like for the Empire.

If I may offer a suggestion?

Your infantry divisions and IRs are your rock stars-sexy and everyone wants to know where they are and what they're doing. To me, the real rock stars in fashioning an effective defense of the Empire are the combat engineers and base construction unit. The Empire has a goodly number of these scattered throughout the Pacific rim. These guys are at the top of my list in terms of making sure that I have 'em in the right spot for constructing defense. They are a true force multiplier. Rather than figuring out where all my IDs are, I'd advise you to take stock of your engineers and apply their distribution to best fit your strategic defensive plans. 2-3 large, dedicated engineer units on those bases you've identified should quickly speed your forts.

Personal examples: I've been building forts at Iwo Jima since the first quarter of 1942. Same with many other islands of importance. I'd hate to be surprised by a landing on Lunga or Tulagi in early 1943 due to my own lack of protection, so I've been digging there too.

_____________________________


(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 481
RE: Strategic Musings - 5/6/2011 7:33:51 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Chickenboy,

I'm amazed at how similiar our thoughts are. I try not to focus on the divisions as well, because as you said, it's the support troops that matter in maintaining an effective defence. I've been digging in Empire wide from day one and I'm ahead of the game in that department in a lot of areas. Your suggestion of getting a few engineer units to the right bases quickly to speed up the fort level process is one I've been thinking on. I think I'm suffering from too much dispersal which does allow me to build up everything, but at the expense of really getting a few fortress style bases ready.

I think I have a made an important mental transition. I was bemoaning the lack of opportunities and completely neglecting the opportunities staring me in the face. I have had an opportunity to make the Allies bleed all game, it's just that I've been focusing on accomplishing it the wrong way. My fleet will have it's chance, but it will be in the defence of territory with my LCU's that will create the conditions where my fleet/LBA can be effective. I've been wanting to fight a different battle then the one I'm actually in . I can't control how my opponent plays, but I can control my response to it and what I can do to counter.

This all sounds grand of course, but let's see if I can actually implement it and shape the coming battle.

P.s. if you ever need another 2x2 partner .

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 5/6/2011 7:35:14 PM >

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 482
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/15/2011 5:18:28 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		I've been asked to comment so here goes:

1. You transitioned to the defensive far too quickly. You recognise that now.

2. Your opponent never committed forces because he never had to. You never attacked anything he HAD to defend. This tells you he is disciplined. He didn't lose discipline and focus like you, he picked a gameplan and stuck to it.

3. When you lost focus on the game you not only lost offensive focus but you stopped making defensive preps. I've looked at your Pacific situation and there are large numbers of islands with no garrisons, other bases on the perimeter with no recon to spot incoming invasions, no central reserves etc. YOu can keep the game interesting by planning a good defence. Planning it and building it is a major job. Instead of losing focus you should have shifted to that.

4. Your opponent is now on the move. He is attacking in Burma AND his attacks have been successful. Success is the final arbiter of methodology.

5. Training of pilots:
800 Pilots in reserve. FAR, FAR too low. You've had no combat to speak of but instead of focussing on building the pools you'd need for 1943 and 44 you've just let units sit around becoming experienced but not actually transitioning pilots into the reserve.

In effect you have NOT prepared your airforce for the Allied counter-thrust in 1943 and have sown the seeds for a rapid collapse of your airforce in 1943. Having looked at your on-map forces and assuming a 3 month training cycle to get pilots up to 70 skill in their primary skill ( A2A, Ground etc ) and assuming 50% of your airforce was committed to training during this time period --- easily achievable given the paucity of combat --- you should have been able to go through 3 training cycles by this stage generating some 4,500+ pilots for your reserve. Instead you don't have even 20% of that number. You are handing your opponent the keys to victory here.


6. Aleutians:
You've captured an island in the Aleutians and then failed to garrison it and base any seaplanes there. How are you expecting to spot a buildup and gain intel without creating the groundwork to gain intel? Also, you are abandoning a very important buffer zone.


7. Burma: You have large forces sitting behind the front lines doing nothing while the front line forces aren't strong enough. E.g. in Burma you have about 300 AV of tank units sitting behind the front lines doing nothing. Why? They should be up at the front manoeuvring around Allied lines and preventing them from launching further attacks.


8. China: 22nd January 2011: You have the upper hand in this theatre but plan no future offensives? Why? Surely crushing the Chinese is a worthwhile goal. Even if your offensives were only in order to train ground units you planned to garrison your holdings in the Pacific it would be worth it.


9. March 12th 1942.... Already focussing on building up forts in Victoria Point. That's still the time that you should be focussing on doing unto him rather than worrying about what he'll do unto you. AGain though I think it was inexperience that made you misjudge your strength and play too conservatively.


I think, overall, the best advice I can give is the same advice I gave the last time I was asked to comment on this AAR on, fittingly, 14th May 2010. See Post 290. I think reading it now with the benefit of hindsight might cast it in a new light. I didn't post again in this thread following that because after that post ( which I was asked to make and for which I read the AAR ) there was no response whatsoever to what I posted. So, I've spent a couple of hours reading this AAR again as per request. I think you lack strategic focus ( which is fine, you're new to AE and it is a learning curve for you ) and I think it would help you to work through the questions from last year in order to gain some strategic focus. I think you also need to do a serious pen and paper review of your Pacific holdings and begin committing forces to them. Right now they are paper-thin and even a slight push would roll right over them. Fortunately for you Smeulders is new also so that won't happen.

You also need to begin shifting pilots from your Nate units etc into the reserve pool and using your air force for training in a significant way.... You should have a huge pilot pool available now for the late-war game. As it is you don't have enough to see you through 2 months of concentrated combat. That needs to change.

Overall though I think that if you rationalise your defence you have enough in you for one major offensive. If you choose it wisely you can succeed in bringing Smeulders to battle and seriously hurt him.


Question: What strategically vital recon missions are your Glen-equipped subs running? I'm sure they aren't running any. If this is true then get them over to PH right away and recon the port and the nearby islands, including Johnston.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 483
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/15/2011 7:51:47 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Hi Nemo,

Thanks for posting. Time to face the hard truths and I'm guilty as charged on most of your points. I think the hardest part of the game I've struggled with is knowing just how much is enough. I'm just not sure what constitutes enough in the numbers game. How many engines, aircraft, pilots to stockpile. More is better, but I don't know when I'm over committing. There are so many avenues for an Allied thrust that I don't know how many troops to base where. If I over commit in one area I'm weak elsewhere and still vulnerable. I'm starting to address this particular point by prioritizing where I feel I have to defend. I've also realized I can hope to somewhat shape the Allied advance by creating strong defences in areas I must hold that will force the Allies to commit large forces or seek weaker targets. I will go back to your post #290 and respond to the task you had suggested. At that time I really didn't know how to respond. Being reminded of it and going back to read it, I think I can now provide an answer. First I'll address your most current points.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

1. You transitioned to the defensive far too quickly. You recognise that now.


I do.

quote:


2. Your opponent never committed forces because he never had to. You never attacked anything he HAD to defend. This tells you he is disciplined. He didn't lose discipline and focus like you, he picked a gameplan and stuck to it.


I made it extremely easy for him to do so for the reasons you point out.

quote:


3. When you lost focus on the game you not only lost offensive focus but you stopped making defensive preps. I've looked at your Pacific situation and there are large numbers of islands with no garrisons, other bases on the perimeter with no recon to spot incoming invasions, no central reserves etc. YOu can keep the game interesting by planning a good defence. Planning it and building it is a major job. Instead of losing focus you should have shifted to that.


I've lost focus in the game numerous times and it's been detrimental for the reasons you point out. I think I'm starting to address that from my last few posts. I've recognized I have too many combat troops in rear areas and have begun shifting these units to better positions. Getting more search capabilities is a priority as I've realized I'm going to get blindsided quite easily. I have just been too slow in deciding where the most crucial avenues of approach may be. I've decided to focus on a few areas intensely while providing for adequate search capabilities to cover my entire perimeter.

quote:


4. Your opponent is now on the move. He is attacking in Burma AND his attacks have been successful. Success is the final arbiter of methodology.


Agreed. He's only been successful from my lack of preparation though, I recognize that. That will be rectified. I still believe that when the fighting starts and he's faced with a strong counter some cracks will appear in his methodology that I'll be able to exploit. This is my number one priority to address, stop making it easy for him.

quote:


5. Training of pilots:
800 Pilots in reserve. FAR, FAR too low. You've had no combat to speak of but instead of focussing on building the pools you'd need for 1943 and 44 you've just let units sit around becoming experienced but not actually transitioning pilots into the reserve.

In effect you have NOT prepared your airforce for the Allied counter-thrust in 1943 and have sown the seeds for a rapid collapse of your airforce in 1943. Having looked at your on-map forces and assuming a 3 month training cycle to get pilots up to 70 skill in their primary skill ( A2A, Ground etc ) and assuming 50% of your airforce was committed to training during this time period --- easily achievable given the paucity of combat --- you should have been able to go through 3 training cycles by this stage generating some 4,500+ pilots for your reserve. Instead you don't have even 20% of that number. You are handing your opponent the keys to victory here.


I thought I was doing ok . Will focus on getting more pilots through the pipeline. I think the lack of combat has contributed to this. I've not been losing pilots so there's no sense of how quickly I'll actually lose them in sustained combat. I'll increase my focus here.

quote:


6. Aleutians:
You've captured an island in the Aleutians and then failed to garrison it and base any seaplanes there. How are you expecting to spot a buildup and gain intel without creating the groundwork to gain intel? Also, you are abandoning a very important buffer zone.


I hadn't put much energy here as the lack of any Allied base expansion in the Aleutians lulled me into a sense of complacency. I'll increase my presence in this area as it seems I should guard against the possibility of an Allied thrust here. Let's face it, I'd never know about it or be in a position to stop it even if I did, as you point out.

quote:


7. Burma: You have large forces sitting behind the front lines doing nothing while the front line forces aren't strong enough. E.g. in Burma you have about 300 AV of tank units sitting behind the front lines doing nothing. Why? They should be up at the front manoeuvring around Allied lines and preventing them from launching further attacks.


The tank forces are waiting to combine into the 1st tank division which will be complete within a week or two. Then the plan was to move them to the front for offensive operations. I'm pushing the Chinese back to Paoshan so I can leave a small blocking force and redeploy the 5th and 56th divisions to joing the 19th and 38th divisions for a drive on Myitkyina to start putting pressure on the Allies and perhaps require some units to be withdrawn from Shwebo. I do plan on advancing in Burma to disrupt the Allied buildup. I will not advance in clear terrain and am starting to maneuver through rough terrain to push his picket units back and advance on his recent conquests.

quote:


8. China: 22nd January 2011: You have the upper hand in this theatre but plan no future offensives? Why? Surely crushing the Chinese is a worthwhile goal. Even if your offensives were only in order to train ground units you planned to garrison your holdings in the Pacific it would be worth it.


I'm on the offensive to secure Changsha and then drive on Tuyun and Kweiyang. The goal here is threaten towards Chungking and Kunming. I want to keep the Burma road closed to China so I'm going to focus my attention on insuring China receives no supply other than what can be airlifted in from Ledo. I'm looking at ways I may be able to encircle the large concentration of Chinese forces around Changteh. I do want to try and defeat China and thought I was progressing in this theatre.

quote:


9. March 12th 1942.... Already focussing on building up forts in Victoria Point. That's still the time that you should be focussing on doing unto him rather than worrying about what he'll do unto you. AGain though I think it was inexperience that made you misjudge your strength and play too conservatively.


Agreed. I'm focusing energy in some areas that should be lower on the priority list. I've begun to address this be starting to redeploy assets.

quote:


I think, overall, the best advice I can give is the same advice I gave the last time I was asked to comment on this AAR on, fittingly, 14th May 2010. See Post 290. I think reading it now with the benefit of hindsight might cast it in a new light. I didn't post again in this thread following that because after that post ( which I was asked to make and for which I read the AAR ) there was no response whatsoever to what I posted. So, I've spent a couple of hours reading this AAR again as per request. I think you lack strategic focus ( which is fine, you're new to AE and it is a learning curve for you ) and I think it would help you to work through the questions from last year in order to gain some strategic focus. I think you also need to do a serious pen and paper review of your Pacific holdings and begin committing forces to them. Right now they are paper-thin and even a slight push would roll right over them. Fortunately for you Smeulders is new also so that won't happen.


I agree. At the time I didn't know how to answer. I think I do now and will address that in my next posting. I also have noted how weak I am. I've begun to address this by moving units forward and getting more support units to provide for increased and effective search patterns to spot Allied advances and not get surprised.

quote:


You also need to begin shifting pilots from your Nate units etc into the reserve pool and using your air force for training in a significant way.... You should have a huge pilot pool available now for the late-war game. As it is you don't have enough to see you through 2 months of concentrated combat. That needs to change.


I will begin to address this immediately upon completing the next turn.

quote:


Overall though I think that if you rationalise your defence you have enough in you for one major offensive. If you choose it wisely you can succeed in bringing Smeulders to battle and seriously hurt him.


I've been trying to come up with that offensive that will garner a reaction from the Allies, but I just don't see it right now. This is where I'm needing a hand. I won't ask for what to do, I'll mention a few ideas and see if others think they may be possible at this stage of the game and act on one.

1. Invade the Aleutions. Only Dutch Harbour has been built up somewhat by the Allies.

2. Invade Perth and the bases in Northwestern Australia. Why? Secures Java and Southern Sumatra from invasion. Means any Allied naval operations in this theatre have to be based from Ceylon. Limits where I have to focus.

3. Invade Luganville and Noumea. Why? disrupt the Allied base expansion and reduce the number of bases that can be used against my positions in the Solomon's which may give me the time I need to strengthen that entire theatre.

4. If Christmas, Johnston or Canton Islands are weakly held, after recon from Glen equipped subs, invade one or more to threaten the Allied LOC and perhaps draw into battle Allied naval assets.

5. Invade Akyab by sea and drive North to Chittagong.

6. Remain on the defensive in the Pacific and throw everything I have at China for a knockout blow.

Are any of these feasible at this stage of the war? Is there somewhere else I could strike at that I'm not seeing and is a better alternative? I do feel I need to launch at least one major offensive push to surprise my opponent and actually force him to react. I think Ceylon will be too tough at this stage, so too Northeastern Australia. I think I've left Darwin too late, fort levels will be too high and Allied armour is present in the North in droves.

quote:


Question: What strategically vital recon missions are your Glen-equipped subs running? I'm sure they aren't running any. If this is true then get them over to PH right away and recon the port and the nearby islands, including Johnston.


Other than patrolling they are not being used for any particular purpose. I will redirect some to start searching for what is, or isn't, at the major Allied naval bases.

So Nemo, I will go back to post 290 and answer your questions next post. I thank you for taking the time to look through my AAR and make your comments on my current dispositions and the sore state of the Empire. I have recently begun to look at things differently as stated in my last posts and your comments reinforce some of my own conclusions. Thank you once again.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 5/15/2011 7:53:49 PM >

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 484
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/15/2011 9:25:46 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Sqzy, All's cool. No need to take a one down posture in your post either. It's a game, you are learning, you didn't push as hard as you might have but you are seeking to improve and make it more difficult for him. We are ALL learning. I learn every game I play...

So, don't beat yourself up or adopt a one down posture vs others on the forum. There's no need.


Couple of quick comments ( and then I have to go and do some work ):
1. Why combine the tank division behind the lines? Why not move it to the front as it arrives and combine it there? That way you get the combat power as it arrives. Wouldn't it be a real B*TCH for that division to arrive ONE DAY too late to hold your front line together if he attacked? Wouldn't you wish you had had its constituents forward then?

2. Having looked at your position I think you need to knock the ALlies back for six months in order to gain time and limit their avenues for offensive action. In 6 months time you can change the entire tenor of this game. So, what would knock the USN back? I think you may want to look at knocking Hawaii out of the war. It'll certainly bring the Allies out to fight and if you took Hilo and neutralise PH itself you can limit the Allies to either the Aleutians or the Marianas/PNG thrust for the next six months ( after that they can try to retake Hawaii, which would suit you fine as that'll take time and cost them more than it costs you, you can trade army and navy planes for USN ships - which he can never replace.

3. China: Do you have a rule against strategic bombing? If not blast his resources/Light Industry in China to hell.

4. Personally I don't think your opponent would HAVE to come out to fight for any of the targets you've listed ( except Chittagong... but I think that's a place where all the advantages stack to him, not to you, so I wouldn't fight there ). I think in Burma you are facing a ground fight and Oz is already too strong to really hit hard IMO. In China you have enough troops in the region to win if you can crush Chinese logistics and out-manoeuvre them. Where you are hugely vulnerable is the Pacific... by the same token though your opponent may be vulnerable also. Without Hawaii as a fleet base he is going to have to either proceed from Fiji/Nz/Eastern Oz north through the Marianas/PNG or West via the Aleutians to the Kuriles. ( or retake Hawaii ).

5. Glen-equipped subs. My point exactly. Glen-equipped subs should have your lowest aggression commanders ( so they never attack anything... Every time a Glen-equipped sub attacks something you should replace the CO ) and should be tasked to strategic missions, like reconning Hawaii. People are very down on the Glen-equipped subs, I love them. They allow me to sneak around, see what the enemy's dispositions are 500 to 1000 miles behind his main defensive line and pick the target I'm going to hit after bypassing his front line.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 485
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/15/2011 10:10:14 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		The hardest person on me...is me. I like to excel and perform to a certain standard I set for myself. Often it's a little high and I'm too hard on myself, but it also pushes me to improve. I think ultimately I'm just frustrated, I thought I'd be doing much better than I am. I'm learning that WitP AE is unlike any other wargame I've played before, so there is room for much improvement...and that frustrates me at times .

After listing my choices I agree. I don't think they'll bring out the Allied navy either. Burma is a land based affair and committing my fleet there would do nothing short of just creating Japanese naval losses.

I'm going to make a list of forces I have available for operations in the Pacific and determine where to strike. I like the idea of Perth only because it's so close to fuel/supply and troop stockpiles, but don't know if it's a viable target at this stage and I don't think it's that important to my opponent. I think everything is routed to Melbourne and Sydney with Perth bypassed anyway.

If I look at my opponents actions they are all based from Northeastern Australia and then East across the Pacific. This is where I need to hit him. Noumea and Fiji are heavily expanded, but the smaller islands to the East are weaker.

So, I think I'll first do the Aleutians to consolidate that approach and maybe draw Allied assets North. I'm not sure I can do Hawaii...I'll recon and see what I learn first. I do think I will push into the Central Pacific after all in some regard. I will set aside the next two months preparing the logistics for a major push into the Central Pacific. This will require massive supply and fuel stockpiles. Relocating most of my air assets and the need to expand bases rapidly to shift these assets and provide an adequate support structure to maintain operations. At this stage what do I have to lose? And what better chance to try and show that I have some teeth .

I'm going to still look at Luganville and Ndeni, perhaps this will draw more Allied forces to Australia and Fiji currently based at Hawaii and the Central Pacific.

I'm going to go all out in China. I have 1000's of AV sitting around in the North doing nothing. So it's time to aid my main Sourthern thrust with a Northern offensive to lock Chinese forces in place and manuever around the 55 unit Chinese stack blocking my route into Central China. I'll secure Sining first and then completely shift forces to attack into Central China. Urumchi's oil doesn't migrate so I'll redeply the 27th Division to aid in taking Sining.

I'm attacking Myitkyina in Burma and thinking of completely withdrawing from Mandalay into rough terrain and advancing North. Keeping the railway open ties down 1800 AV doing absolutely nothing and if the Allies finally start a ground bombing campaign against the base my forces will get shattered. I can then start bombing the Allied units in clear terrain at Shwebo while mine are safely in the jungle.

First order of business is the logistics shift and getting my forces redeployed and start prepping. It's time to break some eggs and I need to probe the Allied dispositions. Maybe an offensive or two this late will completely surprise my opponent and catch him flat footed.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 486
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/16/2011 12:36:29 AM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Don't make any major changes until you think it through. Many a great strategy has been rendered unworkable because of something someone ordered while the strategy was being formulated.


Taking the smaller islands to the east of Fiji will simply result in the Allies having a SLOC across your rear ( this SLOC will run, Hawaii, Johnston, Fiji ).

One of my favourite sayings regarding tactics is that "Encirclement is a matter of opinion." What it means is that when you break through and the enemy is all around you it is a matter of opinion whether you're encircled or you're deep in their rear destroying everything they need in order to hold the front. Which mindset you hold will determine how things will turn out. If you decide you are surrounded then you will hunker down and you WILL become surrounded. Anyways, I would worry that taking those islands won't make much difference since either:
a) he'll decide you aren't astride his SLOCs, he is astride yours... and it'll tie down KB defending the SLOCs to those islands OR

b) he'll just decide to ship everything to Oz using the map edge/shipping channels and ship them into Fiji from the south/west ( NZ ).

I think you are jumping to plans now. A little like Greyjoy is doing ( and which dooms him to failure). He is making plans and in response to people pointing out flaws he jumps to another plan. He doesn't sit down and work out a good plan through a socratic method. Now isn't the time to create a plan, now is the time to give a week to answering question after question until the answers to those questions coalesce into a far superior plan. All plans begin with a single sentence intent and then turning that intent into reality with the capabilities at hand is a matter of asking the right questions.

The hermeneutics of the word plan denotes intent and statement and misleads in terms of how to create a good plan. You create a good plan by asking questions, not by making statements.


E.g. In my current PBEM I didn't DECIDE to recapture Okinawa in September 1945. It was decided for me by the questions I asked based on my over-riding intent.

I formulated the intent of reducing the vulnerability of the Home Islands to enemy B-29s.

This led to the question: How do I stop B-29s bombing the Home Islands?

This question led to two answers:
1. Build up a fighter force which can shoot them down.
2. Keep them as far away from the Home Islands as possible.


This led to the next question:
But the fighters which are best at shooting down bombers are dogs in A2A combat and the enemy will just sweep them out of the air before the bombers strike.

This led to the answer: Well, if my fighters are good and the bombers can no longer make unescorted strikes I need to push the fighters far enough away that ALL strikes on the Home Islands are unescorted.

Question: So which bases are within P-51H long-range tank range of the Home Islands?

Answer: Okinawa.

Question: How do I neutralise Okinawa as a fighter base?

Answer: Bombing won't work, therefore I have to invade it.

Obviously the chain of questions continued but that's a simple example of how questions clarify what must be done, why and how.

It's late so I'm not sure how much sense that makes... Hopefully it gets the point across.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 5/16/2011 12:42:36 AM >

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 487
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/16/2011 2:30:12 AM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Good points.

I'm not going to rush onto the transports and sail off quite yet . I have much to do prior to any actual movement into the Central Pacific. I need to see what I have available force wise after establishing a better overall defence. I also have to try and look at possible Allied counters to an offensive. A strike at New Guinea and the Solomons would be a possible Allied reaction or a Commonwealth strike at Burma, Malaya or Sumatra.

These are my list of current priorities as I see them with this new focus.

1. Address my pilot reserve issues you pointed out. Look at the type and number of aircraft I'll need for an offensive and how to get them to the theatre.
2. Start base expansion and stockpiling of supplies that won't show my hand for a Central Pacific offensive.
3. Make sure periphery defences are strong enough to counter an Allied effort to threaten my LOC's and possibly strike to threaten my fuel/oil sources.
4. Keep the Allies focusing on the Burma, China and New Guinea/Solomons theatres. Create a situation where the Allies feel the need to reinforce these.
5. Recon, recon and more recon. I'm blind, I need to know where the Allies strength lies to better formulate a plan.

Burma and China are doable since I don't have to change anything. My forces are already in place and it's just a question of using them effectively. this is the one area I can definitely hurt the Allied war effort.

I think a moderate investment in the Aleutians is quite doable and will help to focus the Allied attention on another theatre. Striking in winter conditions, I believe, will be unexpected.

I've had ideas along these lines most of the game. I just didn't see where or how best to put them into effect. Once I stopped expansion I stated I would hunker down and defend. That's still the overall plan, but I also feel Japan's best defence is offensive counter strokes at the Allies LOC and rear support areas as they advance. The Allies are indeed on the move and I need to start looking at ways to fight back effectively. Sitting passively to get clobbered isn't going to work. I don't think it's smart to tackle the Allies head-on either unless my defences are formidable at the point of advance. I'm not strong anywhere so this isn't an option for me right now. I'm addressing this and will do my best to get a formidible defence in place in time. I do think a smart, well prepared counteroffensive at the rear support echelon behind an Allied advance could pay huge dividends as Nemo has suggested. I'll use the next few days or weeks to figure out what I can do.

I think an offensive with isolating Hawaii as it's objective could be doable. It certainly might be worth the gamble and as I've stated...what do I have to lose at this point? I think an offensive in the East has strategic game changing possibilities, the West not so much. The Allies route everything from Karachi or Bombay so no naval presence is required there and there's not much I can do to stop that. Maybe a small bluff on my part may focus some of his attention there and divert forces. I want to be careful and not dilute my strength away from what should be my main objective, picking a strategically important target that will force the Allies to either commit to battle or divert forces away from their planned operations. At this stage these are just ramblings of course, as I have done in the past, but it is time to seriously look at things from a different perspective and see what may be possible.

A note on these recent posts and the request for Nemo to comment on my AAR. I wasn't enjoying the matchup as many of you have read and it was leading to a sense of frustration, which was hampering my ability to focus on many aspects of the game. I asked Nemo to give me an honest opinion on my situation, which he has, in order to kindle new interest and try and look at things differently. Rather than continue to flounder and be frustrated, I'd rather devote that energy to try and provide myself and my opponent a meaningful game experience. I think it's not too late to accomplish this. My overall goal is to become a better player and this seems like as like as good as any way to learning more and improving.

I also hope this will spark more discussion amongst followers of this AAR. I'm always appreciative and welcoming of any thoughts and comments any of you have to offer. I haven't seen too many mid-game 1943 Japanese offensives against an Allied player so I'm actually rather excited to try something rather different and probably something quite high risk. The alternative would be the status quo and more frustration and angst. If it works it might be something to see, if not, then at least it will be fun trying and I go out in a blaze of glory.

Now I just need the turn back so I can start! Thanks for following.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 5/16/2011 2:34:32 AM >

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 488
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/16/2011 5:02:55 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

I think you are jumping to plans now. A little like Greyjoy is doing ( and which dooms him to failure). He is making plans and in response to people pointing out flaws he jumps to another plan. He doesn't sit down and work out a good plan through a socratic method. Now isn't the time to create a plan, now is the time to give a week to answering question after question until the answers to those questions coalesce into a far superior plan. All plans begin with a single sentence intent and then turning that intent into reality with the capabilities at hand is a matter of asking the right questions.

The hermeneutics of the word plan denotes intent and statement and misleads in terms of how to create a good plan. You create a good plan by asking questions, not by making statements.


I think I understand where you are coming from. I'll start posing questions to myself and see where that leads me. A few I can think of off the top of my head are:

1. What do I want to achieve? I want to strike a target strategically important enough to force the Allies to commit to battle and defeat them. To change their focus from offense to defence and gain me time to further strengthen the Empire.

2. When and where to strike?
3. How can I isolate the target? Should I isolate the target?
4. What land forces will be required?
5. How will I provide air support?
6. What are the logistics required, how much fuel and supply will I require?
7. Do I have the necessary shipping?
8. How can I prevent reinforcing of the target and interdict the Allied LOC?
9. Do I have an exit strategy or fall back plan?
10. How do I defend against an Allied counterstroke in another theatre while my operation is in progress?
11. Will I need to redeploy units from Burma or China?
12. How can I divert Allied assets to other theatres, particularly LCU's and LBA?
13. What will failure entail?
14. Are there other objectives that need to be taken in prior to, or in support of, this operation?

This is just the start of course. I'm still waiting on the turn and then I can start looking at specifics and do an inventory. I think the priority is selecting the target. Is Pearl Harbor doable? Is there an easier target that can achieve the same goal? Are there multiple smaller scale operations that can achieve the same goal?

Comments, suggestions or words of caution are most welcome.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 489
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/16/2011 5:46:45 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Comment 1: Just ask 1 question at a time. You have so many questions there in one big bunch that it is inviting a lack of clarity. Just ask one at a time and answer it logically and clearly and work through them. Don't look too far ahead.

Also the phrasing is important. Instead of Question 2: When and where to strike? I'd rephrase it as So, what's strategically important enough to force him to fight? You might argue that the difference is small but of small differences are significantly different outcomes derived.


So, when I said about not MAKING decisions but having the questions make decisions for me I was talking about avoiding precisely the "Is Pearl Harbour doable?" question of the 2nd-last paragraph. You are going to decisions too soon ( Ph vs Aleutians etc ). Don't make decisions, ask questions.

So, What is the most strategically vital thing on the map that is within reach of your forces? ( the within reach is important because obviously capturing the Whitehouse and Karachi would be the two obvious answers without that caveat ;-) ) More questions, no decisions. That's the mantra for the next couple of days. If you ask the right questions and enough of them the decisions will make themselves apparent to you.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 490
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/16/2011 6:56:22 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		I'm trying to wrap my head around this. I definitely see the distinction you're pointing out. Less questions to start, as I answer them individually they will lead to more questions.

So, to answer first what is strategically important enough to FORCE the Allied player to fight at this stage of the game? I see only one...Hawaii. Hawaii, if taken or neutralized, offers me the most opportunity for further disrupting and inflicting losses on the Allies. No other area on the map would require commitment of Allied naval assets in it's defence, or cause enough of a shift from an offensive to defensive stance by the Allies.

How'd I do?

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 5/16/2011 6:57:14 PM >

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 491
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/16/2011 7:17:09 PM   
Nemo121


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Status: offline 		Ok, so he must fight for Hawaii. Now, do you want to neutralise Hawaii or just fight his fleet near Hawaii? For the former you need to invade, for the latter you must just threaten invasion ( near-empty xAKs with 1 division spread between 60xAKs etc ). So what do you want? The fleet or the fleet base?

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 492
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/16/2011 7:35:12 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Hmmm, didn't see that option. I think at this stage a mere threat of invasion wouldn't necessarily mean the Allies had to commit their fleet in it's defence. I believe my opponent would wait until I had boots on the ground to determine whether to commit his fleet or not. A large invasion force consisting of multiple divisions, LBA and the bulk of my fleet would tell him it was a serious attempt at taking Hawaii. If he learns I've tried to fool him into commiting his fleet against a bogus invasion he'll simply rely on attrition from his submarines, LBA and whatever combat ships were at hand and wait for me to retire before striking back.

So, if I go for Hawaii...I'm all in .

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 493
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/16/2011 7:38:59 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Ok, then the next question is yours ;-). Time to start earning your pay General.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 494
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/16/2011 8:00:40 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Ugh, I was afraid you'd say that . I've just gotten the next turn so I'll wait until I get home and run it. Then I can start to visualize things looking at the map and going over my forces.

So at this stage I've made one decision, to strike at PH. The other decision is to take it or at least neutralize it. Now, I'm not asking for you to tell we what to do, but am I on the right track if I start asking questions about how to accomplish this or would I once again be getting ahead of myself and missing a step or two?

Perhaps my next question should be: what defensive measures can I expect to encounter? Then I can start asking questions about force composition and such to neutralize/overcome said defences?

And then I better get back to work, I love WitP AE, but not at the expense of getting fired .

Thanks again Nemo. A long way to go yet, but it's a start.

Grasshopper aka Lemon-san

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 495
Oct. 25/42 - 5/17/2011 7:37:49 AM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Here's a quick update of what's happening in China. Northern China is rather static, but Southern China remains fluid and the Chinese forces are showing signs of movement. My priority right now is the reduction of Changsha for as little coast as possible and look for any opportunity to inflict large battle casualties on any Chinese force that advances into harms way.

Northern China:





Attachment (1)

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 496
RE: Oct. 25/42 - 5/17/2011 7:38:48 AM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Southern China:





Attachment (1)

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Post #: 497
RE: Oct. 25/42 - 5/17/2011 8:30:41 AM   
fcharton

 

Posts: 1112
Joined: 10/4/2010
From: France
Status: offline 		Konichiwa, lemon sensei !

Three comments on the North...

1- I don't think you need lots of troops in Sining. Once you invest the place, resource cease to be produced, and industry production slows down. Also, since you hold all bases in the area, there is no chance surviving chinese units can counterattack. I would just keep a thousand AV here, bombard and air bomb to keep them down, have a deliberate attack per week, to see where they stand (esp whether that friendly supply(-) pops up, and what the adjusted AV looks like) and wait. If you can maneuver around to block the hexsides, it is better, but I don't see how the enemy could threaten your supply lines (west of Sian, there are just too many major roads, and his bases are too far away).
2- If you are not planning to use Urumchi, and home rules allow for it, you might want to bomb the refinery and industry there. This guarantees every chinese troops left in the west remain unsupplied until the soviets activate in 45, further securing your west flank.
3- It is late 42, you hold (or block) all the northern fuel area, most of the big resource bases in the south, and the Changsha industrial area, and the Burma road is still closed. This means the main enemy industrial centres, in Sichuan, are probably not functionning at full capacity, and that supply stocks are probably low. The 54 unit stack strikes me as madness: there is no way you can feed such a large amount of troops, in closed terrain, at the end of a small road. In particular, this means this stack, formidable on defense, is probably not worth much on offence. Do you think you could turn it (or threaten to)? A slow, overland move from Tienshui and Ankang might threaten his back. Do you have paras you could use to surprise him? Once you are behind him, breaking the siege will be hard for him (lack of supplies, and you use terrain to your advantage), and the 54 units will have lots of trouble remaining fit once they are cut off. In general, I don't think big stacks in closed terrains are a good idea, except against a Gung-ho opponent who tries to shock attack his way through prepared defences.

In the south, the bulk your forces are around Changsha, but the railroad allows you to redeploy rapidly. Personnally, I would try to push towards Tuyun, since this threatens both the creation of a pocket west of Changsha, and a drive over good roads on Kweiyang and Chungking. Holding the fast roads (and letting the enemy move on the slow ones) is quite important in China.

Francois

< Message edited by fcharton -- 5/17/2011 8:43:19 AM >

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 498
RE: Oct. 25/42 - 5/17/2011 4:44:26 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Hi Francois. Thank you for posting.

I'm going to try and take Sining sooner than later. The force I have there is currently strong enough to grind away and eventually take the base, however that's 1000 AV that I could have marching on Central China. I believe my last deliberate attack reduced the forts to level 3 or 4, I should check because if it's only level 3 the siege won't last too long. I do like your idea of trying to completely cut off Sining though. When the 27th Division and 12th Tank Rgt. arrive I can divide the 27th and maneuver to control all the hex sides for complete encirclement. I think prior to that happening, the Chinese will withdraw northwest. Either way, when the extra 500 AV of the 12th and 27th arrive that will tip the scales enough to take the base quickly. I'm also reinforcing with an Artillery Rgt. There are a further 4 enemy units marching southwest from Hami. I'd like to have Sining wrapped up before their arrival. Sining is worth 300 VP's so I'd like to add it to the Empire on a permanent basis. I'd then like to utilize these troops for your point number 3.

Once I'm able to free up the force tied down at Sining they will be used to manuever around the 54 unit stack in rough terrain just as you suggested. The Chinese will either withdraw or hold. Based on my opponents previous moves, I think they'll withdraw. I have transported the 2nd Raiding Rgt. to China in the hopes of a future paradrop on any base showing only 1 enemy unit of under 2000 troops in advance of my ground forces or to drop on a major base under assault to get the halving of the AV. I'm planning on sending the 6th Division, currently at Ankang, west into the rough as you suggested and start to threaten encirclement of the 54 unit stack. I agree, a formidable force on defence, but I think it's unable to perform offensive operations because of supply. It's simply a blocking force and will withdraw if I threaten encirclement. I hope!

In the south, Tuyun and Kweiyang are still the main objectives, but these recent Chinese moves could disrupt my plans somewhat. There are one or two Chinese moves that I'm worried about, but so far they haven't transpired. However, every Chinese move also presents me with a chance to engage them on my terms and there are numerous opportunities to severely maul some of these large stacks if the planets align properly. So, until I'm forced to react I secure Changsha, build up the forts and transfer the bulk of my forces to Luichow for an assault on Tuyun and eventually Kweiyang. If the supply situation is a dire as you predict and I bring enough force to punch through quickly then I definitely think there is the chance of an encirclement of the enemy forces around Changsha of Eastern Front proportions.

Mobility is key in China and I plan on starting to take advantage of my position. The more I can get the Chinese moving the better, cracks will appear that I can exploit.

Again, thanks for posting suggestions and following along.



< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 5/17/2011 6:30:44 PM >

(in reply to fcharton)
Post #: 499
Strategic Musings - 5/17/2011 7:27:11 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		The next questions to myself. I'll have to think of a codename for this operation at some point as well.

What are the defences and enemy forces located in the Hawaiin Islands?

Answer: I don't know.

How do I find out?

Answer: Glenn equipped submarines or LBA recon. I have no bases within range so I have to use submarines.

What does PH have in the way of CD defences and minefields?

Answer: Open an Allied game and look at the CD units based at PH and the minefield concentrations to get a benchmark.

What air units, LCU's and ships are present?

Answer: Learn through recon.

I'm looking at a 2-3 month window to prep for this invasion. Currently PH is not a rear echelon base, which I would prefer, as that may mean it is weakly held with the majority of LCU's, ships and air units forward. I will ask myself more questions when I learn a little about what is currently at or not at PH. Right now the priority for me is to utilize my submarine force to gather as much intelligence as possible.

What can I prepare in the meantime?

Answer: I can start stockpiling fuel/supplies.

This is going to take monumental planning .


(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 500
RE: Strategic Musings - 5/17/2011 11:35:15 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		On an economic note I'm finding I'm transporting fuel out of Singapore to the Home Islands faster than I can restock it with fuel and oil from Palembang. I may have to redirect some tankers from the Home Islands to Sumatra. Right now I'm running at tanker capacity and with the planned fuel expenditure for my upcoming operations I'm going to have to maximise my efficiency. Currently only fuel/oil from Sumatra is shipped to Japan. I may end up diverting two 100k+ fuel runs to Truk rather than to Japan, this will have the benefit of stockpiling fuel for the Central Pacific and give Singapore more time to stock up once again.

Balikpapan and Tarakan supply DEI bases as well as Babeldoab and Truk. I'm loath to use my largest tankers around The Celebes as Allied subs are always on patrol here.

On PH. With fort levels at impregnable levels by now I'll require at least a 7:1 AV advantage over the defenders. Understanding this, I believe this changes the objective from directly assaulting PH to one of blockade/isolation and neutralizing before an assault is attempted. This will require an operation consisting of many phases over months. Each phase will be designed to mutually support the other and provide the building blocks for each successive phase and ultimately...victory?

Blockade will require nothing gets in or out of PH by a cordon of air and naval vessels for an extended period of time. Isolation will require the possible capture of secondary bases within air transfer range of PH to prevent cycling of replacement squadrons and resupply. Neutralizing will be required to prevent enemy assets located at PH or elsewhere from effectively engaging Japanese forces. I'll begin to address these issues hopefully in the way Nemo has suggested and my plan of battle will begin to formulate by refining my requirements and eliminate those ideas that do not ultimately support the stated objective. I also need to start posing questions on what the enemy will be expected to do and how I will prepare to neutralize their efforts. This will help determine the exact phasing, force commitments and timetable.

An action of this type will need to be a combined operations approach and one in which the landing of support and engineer units will ultimately overshadow the combat component, especially in the first phases. Ports and airfields will need to be expanded, provisions made for keeping surface ships rearmed for extended periods of time. Repair and replenishment of air units. A siege approach means combat troops can be phased in over a period of time which will allow staging of transport requirements to managable levels. I will not have to have all my eggs in one basket nor one huge armada. The list goes on.

I am obviously not schooled in the methods that Nemo has suggested, but I will do my best to follow the guidelines he's posted here and elsewhere. I need to understand why I am doing something and plan accordingly based on thorough analysis. I have to create a situation where each piece of the puzzle will add to the whole and shape the battle in the direction I want it to take. It's not enough to say I'll grab this many divisions, this many aircraft and this many ships and send them to PH, I need to know why they are there, what is their purpose and how do I get them to accomplish their objectives.

Ramblings to many I'm sure. If anything, this certainly has me engaged at the moment. The main point is I'm the one determining my course of action, I'm not having my actions dictated by my opponent...that will come later.


One question. An airbase of level 9 or higher allows the basing of unlimited aircraft, but is their use still limited to the amount of air support at the base? For example, if 1000 aircaft are located at PH, can they all still be effective if there's only 250 AV support or does overstacking still apply to exceeding the support levels? I'll look and see what the manual says as well.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 501
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/20/2011 10:40:34 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I'm trying to wrap my head around this. I definitely see the distinction you're pointing out. Less questions to start, as I answer them individually they will lead to more questions.

So, to answer first what is strategically important enough to FORCE the Allied player to fight at this stage of the game? I see only one...Hawaii. Hawaii, if taken or neutralized, offers me the most opportunity for further disrupting and inflicting losses on the Allies. No other area on the map would require commitment of Allied naval assets in it's defence, or cause enough of a shift from an offensive to defensive stance by the Allies.

How'd I do?

Hi SqzMyLemon,

Sorry I'm late to the discussion, but hope to chime in here.

I'm glad you are looking for multiple opinions on strategically important goals for your game. It's important for you to compare and contrast other players' opinions (that's all they are, really) with your experiences in your game. Good on you for asking, but trust yourself too-don't take others' word for it verbatim. One man's 'only valid strategy' may be another's poorly thought alternative. Decide for yourself.

As regards Hawaii, my opinion is that Hawaii becomes decreasingly valuable to the Allies as the game progresses. Sure, it would be a major annoyance for an Allied player to lose Hawaii in mid 1943. But, if they had Johnston, Midway, Wake (?), Fiji, Tahiti, Christmas is., Palymrya built up to maximum and well situated, then Hawaii becomes less important. Hawaii is valuable at your stage of the game, but not irreplaceable.

Would he come out and fight for Hawaii? Maybe. Probably. Is it strategically critical that he do so? Probably not.

If I were Allies, I would welcome an attack on Hawaii in mid-1943. If I can fix you in place with your long-term commitment to something on my terms (such as Hawaii), which is much closer to my LOS than yours, that's an advantage to me. If you take all bases on all the Hawaiian islands (an extremely difficult task with your available OOB), you've now set up a great submarine hunting ground for me and also helped develop a fertile hunting ground where I may pick off transport TFs as they ingress or egress.

If you don't take all bases in the Hawaiian islands, then you're feeding the war of attrition-one that is increasingly arrayed against you. USAAF versus IJAAF, USNAF versus IJNAF. Eventually the math on this goes against you, particularly with his upgraded aircraft capabilities.

I'll comment below in the discussion too.

_____________________________


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Post #: 502
RE: April 26/42 Update - 5/20/2011 10:41:30 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Hmmm, didn't see that option. I think at this stage a mere threat of invasion wouldn't necessarily mean the Allies had to commit their fleet in it's defence. I believe my opponent would wait until I had boots on the ground to determine whether to commit his fleet or not. A large invasion force consisting of multiple divisions, LBA and the bulk of my fleet would tell him it was a serious attempt at taking Hawaii. If he learns I've tried to fool him into commiting his fleet against a bogus invasion he'll simply rely on attrition from his submarines, LBA and whatever combat ships were at hand and wait for me to retire before striking back.

So, if I go for Hawaii...I'm all in .

But you can't be 'all in' without neglecting your other considerable defensive obligations in the SoPac, IMO.

So you can't be all in. So Hawaii is out.

_____________________________


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Post #: 503
RE: Strategic Musings - 5/20/2011 10:55:40 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

The next questions to myself. I'll have to think of a codename for this operation at some point as well.

What are the defences and enemy forces located in the Hawaiin Islands?

Answer: I don't know.

How do I find out?

Answer: Glenn equipped submarines or LBA recon. I have no bases within range so I have to use submarines.

What does PH have in the way of CD defences and minefields?

Answer: Open an Allied game and look at the CD units based at PH and the minefield concentrations to get a benchmark.

What air units, LCU's and ships are present?

Answer: Learn through recon.

I'm looking at a 2-3 month window to prep for this invasion. Currently PH is not a rear echelon base, which I would prefer, as that may mean it is weakly held with the majority of LCU's, ships and air units forward. I will ask myself more questions when I learn a little about what is currently at or not at PH. Right now the priority for me is to utilize my submarine force to gather as much intelligence as possible.

What can I prepare in the meantime?

Answer: I can start stockpiling fuel/supplies.

This is going to take monumental planning .




In my opinion, full recon of the Hawaiian islands is the only thing separating folly from even the possibility of limited victory. You've simply GOT to know what he's got where, when and why.

I doubt the Glen subs will be up to the task by themselves. Would you consider LBA based on, say, Johnston or French Frigate? Sure, it may tip your hand, but you've got to know.

Midget subs may (transiently) help too. You get a fair amount of information about ships in port if you can get a midget sub into the port. Right up until the point where they get depth charged to oblivion or stuck in the net, so watch closely.

A thought: I'll be a naughty boy here an lay out a thought for you...

1. You need recon of the Hawaiian islands to effectively conquer them.
2. You can't get good recon of the Hawaiian islands without regular LBA recon overflights.
3. You can't recon the hell out of Hawaii without tipping your hand.
4. You don't have any LBA in range that can get you reliable recon.

With this in mind, an educated guess may be in order. Assume that his forces on some of the outlying islands will be minimal, and that three IDs apiece could overwhelm any (likely) base forces he has on hand.

In other words, assume victory in the absence of perfect knowledge. Go where you think your assumption warranted. Brazen? Yes. Foolhardy? Don't think so-especially if you are convinced about your desire to capture the Hawaiian islands.

A sudden seizure of the outlying (non-Oahu) islands with a minimum of recon would be a surprise! You could turn the surprise to your advantage and gain your needed LBA recon base(s) too, getting a more complete picture about Oahu.

If Oahu proves to be stacked to high heaven with transitting LCUs, you'd best leave-you can't outlast near infinite supplies on the island at that point. If not, then prepare for phase II of your conquest if that's how you want to roll. But now you can make the decision from an educated position that was heretofore lacking.


_____________________________


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Post #: 504
RE: Strategic Musings - 5/20/2011 10:57:33 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
For example, if 1000 aircaft are located at PH, can they all still be effective if there's only 250 AV support

That's my understanding.

_____________________________


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Post #: 505
RE: Strategic Musings - 5/21/2011 12:52:54 AM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Chickenboy, thank you for posting!

First off I really appreciate you taking the time to catch up and post to offer your suggestions. Second, I swear we think along the same lines at times.

It's been a slow day at work and I was starting to put in writing my next update and a comprehensive "where am I at" at this stage of the thinking process. As Nemo pointed out, it's not the time for me to make any decisions, but ask questions and arrive at a course of action that way. I've started to do just that. Here's what I came up with today, just realize it's in rough form and by no means complete:

Taking a few days to not post on any ideas that enter my mind about a Pearl Harbor operation and just thinking about what I'd like to accomplish, I've come up with a few things.

First off, I want to bring the Allied Fleet to battle, set back the Allied offensive capabilities by 4-6 months and use the time to strengthen the Empire. I've already determined that I can only do so by threantening a major strategic target and I've determined at this stage, it has to be Hawaii. Initially, I felt the capture of Pearl Harbor would be necessary to accomplish this. thinking on it for a few days, I don't think that a direct assault is required, nor realistic to accomplish at this time. I think capturing the rest of the Hawaiian Islands could accomplish the same goal and require far fewer combat LCU's than attempting to capture PH directly. If the goal is to inflict naval losses on the Allies and strengthen my perimeter, the number of LCU's I would require would mean an actual net weakening of my overall defences, stripping my already thin forces further, in order to commit the strength necessary. The "threat" of an actual invasion of Pearl Harbor still means the Allies have to react or "eventually" lose the base and accomplishes the same goal. Now how to do so?

I believe this would require four phases.

1. Intelligence
2. Isolation
3. Neutralization
4. Assault

Phase 1 - Intelligence

I'll be completely unprepared for any eventuality unless I learn some hard facts as to what I'm facing. How do I accomplish this? Submarine recon is a start, but neither guaranteed of success. Can I remain on station indefinitely? What if my submarines are sunk? What if my Glenn's are shot down? I'll still be blind.

Can I provide a better source of intelligence? Yes, capture bases within LBA range of Pearl Harbor.

Phase 2 - Isolation

How can I isolate PH? By capturing the adjacent Hawaiian, Midway, Jonhston, Palmyra and Christmas Islands, I can isolate PH from the rest of the Pacific. The only direct route to PH would be from the American West Coast, Aleutians or Alaska. Sitting astride the LOC to Hawaii and Australia could bring the Allied fleet out prior to the need to invest the Hawaiian Islands directly. Can Hawaii be further isolated? Invade the Aleutians?

Phase 3 - Neutralization

Neutralization of PH as a base of operations for Allied operations in the Central Pacific. This phase would require the systematic destruction of the port and airbase capacity. How does Japan accomplish this? By seizing the surrounding Islands and building airbases from which to launch sustained air attacks in order to win air superiority over the Hawaiian Island chain. How can Pearl Harbor be further neutralized? By expanding ports to allow rearming of, and the ability to remain on station, of surface ships for ongoing naval operations to blockade and bombard PH's facilities and defences. Also to interdict the Allied LOC directly to PH. Can this be accomplished despite the poor overall performance of Japanese LBA in a strategic/suppression role? How dangerous are the CD units based at PH?

Phase 4 - Assault

The "eventual" assault on Pearl Harbor can only be attempted once phase one and two are succesfull and only if PH's defenders are not truly loaded. If phase one and two are succesful however, an actual assault of PH need not be required if the Allied Fleet sorties prior and is defeated. Only if the Allied Fleet has been defeated and the defending LCU's are deemed vulnerable can a direct assault on PH still be contemplated.

An invasion of Midway, Johnston, Palmyra and Christmas Island's may mean Allied surface ships will be committed to their defence. If a battle ensues and Japan's forces are victorious, that will accomplish the primary goal of bringing the Allied Fleet to battle and defeating it. If the Allied Fleet is not committed I still advance my goal set out in phase 1, that of isolating PH. I also gain some important benefits. I further expand my perimeter. I shorten my own LOC by providing an additional supply or fuel stockpiling location and will increase my naval search/recon capabilities. I can also interdict any number of Allied LOC's to PH with surface ships, aircraft and submarines from these locations.

Now what if taking these bases doesn't in fact weaken but strengthen PH's defences? Since the goal is to also delay an Allied Advance, any troops/aircraft/ships and LCU's sent to PH can't be used against me in elsewhere until later. If I believe that the Allies will focus on strengthening PH over the other Hawaiian Islands, this in fact doesn't affect my phase 2, or to a lesser degree phase 3, operations.

That's as far as I got today. So looking at what I've written and what you have suggested that allows me to further look at what may be possible and a way to accomplish my goals. I definitely like the idea of either seizing the outlying Islands such as Johnston, Midway or Palmyra for search and recon purposes. I also agree that may tip my hand. I also like your idea of a surprise seizure of the outlying Hawaiian Islands with limited resources in order to gain the consistent recon I'll need to determine whether PH is indeed vulnerable. If not, I pull out. If it is weak, I can then look at completing phase 3.

I believe this has been a great day in terms of a step forward in my development . I can't thank you enough for your input. As you mentioned, ultimately it will be me deciding on my course of action, but that doesn't negate trying to make the best decision possible from as much discussion and informed input as possible. I think I have the abilities, but I agree, I do lack a certain confidence at times.

I'll work on more tonight, but really some questions are being posed that I know the answer to now. Other questions have raised some answers that show they can be eliminated from the equation. It looks to me now a hybrid approach might be highly succesful. Grab an outlying search base (Johnston or Midway would be ideal) to recon the Hawaiian islands, gather the necessary intel for a quick strike to pursue phase 3 and be in a position to gather the intel on PH to determine if phase 4 is worthwhile, and go from there.

Thanks again Chickenboy and Nemo for being receptive to my requests for input. If I didnt know better, I think there's the basis for a plan forming.

P.s. I guess I'll ask. If you think there is a very limited chance of a victory in some regards for a Hawaiian adventure, do you see another opportunity to hurt the Allies along these lines? A more limited offensive would be the Aleutians. At least I protect the northern approach to the Home Islands and perhaps draw out some Allied naval assets in their defence. The other alternative is to plan in the background and wait for the Allied advance to actually happen, then strike at the rear echelon. Nemo advocates this kind of operation in many posts, and I tend to agree that it has merit and can go a long way to creating a logistics nightmare for the Allies.

If anything, I try my Hawaii operation and providing my fleet isn't destroyed and if I just end up losing hundreds of aircraft and a few LCU's it may still be worthwhile. Who knows what the effect on my opponent may be. He may not react as hoped and the whole operation is a wash, or he may react and make mistakes and give me an opening. He's not been tested to this point, who knows how he'll react. I definitely learned that I'll never know unless I try something audacious. And if nothing else, I get practice going straight into the lion's den and seeing if I can manage this on a tactical level. It's all good in other words.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 5/21/2011 4:10:39 AM >

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 506
RE: Strategic Musings - 5/21/2011 2:57:54 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
P.s. I guess I'll ask. If you think there is a very limited chance of a victory in some regards for a Hawaiian adventure, do you see another opportunity to hurt the Allies along these lines? A more limited offensive would be the Aleutians. At least I protect the northern approach to the Home Islands and perhaps draw out some Allied naval assets in their defence. The other alternative is to plan in the background and wait for the Allied advance to actually happen, then strike at the rear echelon. Nemo advocates this kind of operation in many posts, and I tend to agree that it has merit and can go a long way to creating a logistics nightmare for the Allies.

If anything, I try my Hawaii operation and providing my fleet isn't destroyed and if I just end up losing hundreds of aircraft and a few LCU's it may still be worthwhile. Who knows what the effect on my opponent may be. He may not react as hoped and the whole operation is a wash, or he may react and make mistakes and give me an opening. He's not been tested to this point, who knows how he'll react. I definitely learned that I'll never know unless I try something audacious. And if nothing else, I get practice going straight into the lion's den and seeing if I can manage this on a tactical level. It's all good in other words.


I think there's a limited chance for victory in regards to your Hawaiian adventure. You will probably provoke some of the action that you seek, but I think you're in an increasing disadvantage insofar as your relative strength to the Allies. A 'final battle' in mid-1943 benefits the Allies even at even odds. BUT...if you sought a final battle you may as well roll the dice now versus watching your strength atrophy over the next two years.

Don't be surprised if you get a bunch of your fleet burned...a long ways from home, SqzMyLemon. I know-not very uplifting to be sure, but it's what I would expect.



_____________________________


(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 507
RE: Strategic Musings - 5/21/2011 3:00:41 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		SqzMyLemon,

I apologize for smoking crack 'on the job'.  I went back to some of your previous posts and reviewed the date of your game.  I was way off in my assumptions.  You're only in October 1942.  This changes my opinion.  If paints your position in a more positive light vis a vis the Allies.  I'm not so sanguine regarding your odds for success.  He's still many months away from good, solid naval reinforcements.

Roll the dice.

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Post #: 508
RE: Strategic Musings - 5/21/2011 4:42:43 AM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		The proverbial clock is definitely ticking. I want to put this operation into effect in two to three months, before the first Essex class carriers begin to arrive and the Allies grow too strong in general. I understand I'll be committing my navy up against an intact American Fleet and no doubt strong air defences in Hawaii. I will have to rely on a superior plan, tactics and of course luck. I hope to throw something at my opponent that he did not plan for.

It is indeed...time to take a chance and roll the dice, or for you roulette fans out there...put everything down on one spin and hopefully she comes up number 4.

I plan on prepping units for targets all over the map. Obviously I'll try and confuse the Allies as to my real intentions. To that end I think prepping for anything in India is clearly going to be seen as a bluff. However, North and Northeastern Australia, New Caledonia, Santa Cruz Islands, Fiji, Aleutians and islands in the Central Pacific including a few Hawaiian Islands are all viable targets at this stage. There's not much I can do about Allied intelligence other than take a chance my true targets will be thought of as nothing but pure bluff.

I'm off to start looking at just how the heck I'm going to start preparing my forces for this operation and continue to evolve my strategy based on questioning everything I can think of. Right now, the monumental task of logistics is going to be the main area of focus in terms of actual gameplay. I'm no where near a plan yet and I still have much to dwell on.

Another area I can focus on in game terms is getting my defences organized in New Guinea, the Solomons and the DEI. If I strike at Hawaii, I'm pretty sure the Allies will not only counter at the point of attack, but launch a series of local offensives in these theatres to take advantage of my fleet being in the Central Pacific.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 509
Oct. 26-27/42 - 5/24/2011 3:28:51 AM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Oct. 26/42:

Burma:

I split the 38th Division at Bhamo to start dealing with the picket units employed by Commonwealth forces. The 38th/C Division forces the 13th Burma Rifles BN back across the river into Katha after a deliberate attack in the jungle at 62,44. Japanese losses were only 25 troops, all disablements. The Allies suffered 4(8) infantry, 5(4) non-combat squad losses totalling 202 troops. Interestingly, the enemy unit was still in move mode despite occupying that hex for what seems like months. I'm not the only one bored and not paying attention .


China:

Changsha's airbase is bombed daily to keep damage levels up to prevent the reconstruction of forts, cause supply hits and disrupt the defenders as much as possible. Despite heavy cloud cover, Changsha was hit hard by Ki-21-IIa Sally's (28) and Ki-51 Sonia's (54) for 6 AB, 2 ABS and 102 Runway hits. As much as I hate having so many bomber units limited to using the Sonia, results like these show they can be effective in China.

Japanese forces launched another deliberate attack against Changsha to keep the Chinese honest and eventually force the defenders to withdraw or be forced out. The odds were 1:2 and the forts were reduced to level 3. Chinese casualties were 49(128) infantry, 11(74) non-combat and 0(4) engineer squad losses totalling 1391 troops. Japanese forces suffered were 7(174) infantry, 7(289) non-combat and 0(12) engineer squad losses totalling 5138 casualties. Once again the number of squads actually lost are low despite the high casualty figures.

I'm not sure how I want to proceed at Changsha. I can't risk completely isolating the base as it leaves my forces vulnerable to a Chinese counterattack from Changteh and Chihkiang, yet I'd prefer to completely destroy the defenders. Completely surrounding and converting every hexside to Japanese control will just take too much time and require two river assaults. I don't want to remain tied up here for a long period of time with the Chinese making moves around Tuyun. If I send the 11th and 23rd Armies west before Changsha falls then I risk the base being reinforced or the railine cut at Hengyang. I have to determine if the move by Chinese forces out of Tuyun is a diversion or indeed an offensive to take Liuchow.

A deliberate attack by the 124th Inf. Rgt. at 73,53 forces another Chinese picket force back. For 19 casualties they destroy 5(0) infantry and 2(0) non-combat squads totalling 150 casualties to the 5th New Chinese/A Corps. Unfortunately the unit retreats directly along the road and is in a position to spot the 13th Army as it advances.

I now have to be careful with 13th Army and may order it to stop momentarily, as the next hex it enters will be adjacent to the enemy. If it's spotted the jig is up and it will give the Chinese time to react. The Chinese pickets are easily dealt with, but they do perform a valuable service in detecting any of my troop movements in adjacent hexes.

Southwest of Sining, I continue to bomb the 17th Chinese/B Corps. This unit threatens my supply path to Sining if it moves east, so the intention is to destroy it by air attack.

Miscellaneous:

Chiang Mai expands airfield to size 4
Toungoo expands airfield to size 4

DD Susuzuki arrives at Nagasaki/Sasebo

Oct. 27/42:

Sub Ops:

SC Ch 11 engages the SS S-36 near the Feni Islands after the submarine elects not to fire torpedoes, and launches a sustained DC attack. Not one near miss or direct hit! This submarine is picked up daily by air ASW and numerous ASW TF's are set to patrol to specifically hunt this submarine down. It's totally depressing that I can't get good combat results, time after time, when engaging Allied subs.

SS I-9 spots the DD Thracian near Noumea and launches 6 torpedoes. All miss as usual.

China:

Changsha's airbase hit again for 17 AB, 1 ABS and 59 Runway hits.

The 17th Chinese/B Corps. near Sining suffers another 6 destroyed squads totalling 37 casualties from air attack.

The 1st Ind. Inf. Gp. catches another Chinese picket force at 77,52. The 3rd New Chinese/B Corps is forced to retreat and suffers no loss. Once again another Allied unit in move mode. I figure it's not a mistake on my opponents part, I think he's doing his best to ensure these Chinese units are wiped out.

Japanese forces launch another deliberate attack against Sining. The odds were 1:2 and forts were reduced to level 2. Chinese forces suffered 7(58) infantry, 2(30) non-combat and 1(3) engineer squad losses totalling 727 troops. The Japanese suffered heavily in comparison with 10(291) infantry, 6(215) non-combat and 0(29) engineer squad losses totalling 3404 casualties. The 35th Division is trashed losing 150 AV. Despite the majority of the losses being disablements, this division is out of commision until reinforcements arrive. I want to take Sining quickly, but not at this kind of cost. I'll await the 12th Tank Rgt. and 27th Division and then maneuver to completely surround the base. The defenders either withdraw, or die.

Another deliberate attack against a Chinese picket force at 82,46 sees the 90th Inf. Rgt. only push back the Chinese 3rd Group Army. Chinese losses were 5(4) non-combat squads lost totalling 81 casualties. Japanese suffered no loss. The enemy's AV was 1 compared to 127 for the Japanese and the odds were 30:1. I'd really like to see these smaller units more easily destroyed then what the current combat model allows for. This unit obviously has no combat capability and yet it is only driven back. Just when does a unit cease being a unit?

So I continue to push back Chinese pickets and try to maintain pressure all along the front. I'm trying to maneuver for a large scale encirclement if possible. The priority is still to take Changsha, only then can I freely redeploy units to an assault on Tuyun. To do so any sooner could see Changsha reinforced, the railway cut and the losses I've recently suffered in attacking the base a waste. Not sure on the exact plans of the Chinese at this point, right now I think they are feinting at Liuchow in order to draw troops away from Changsha. I'll stick to the plan and await further developments before reacting. Once Changsha falls, I can quickly fortify, leave a strong enough garrison to delay any counter and move on Tuyun.

Miscellaneous:

Rahaeng expands airfield to size 5
Hengyang expands fortifications to size 2
Lautem expands fortifications to size 3

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 5/24/2011 7:28:47 PM >

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
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