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Hitting Air - 10/11/2010 2:09:58 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Oct. 24, 1943

Were you sitting on pins and needles just waiting for a report of a massacre at sea? If so, you will be sadly disappointed. Absolutely nothing happened. No invasion. No surface combat. No carrier strikes. Nothing.

The allies obviously decided to react to my Cruiser force which they had spotted yesterday. I am not sure what they thought it was. The detection level was only 2/2. Maybe they thought it was my carriers. More likely, they were operating on the assumption that my surface raiders would retreat back towards the Solomons and hoped to launch a naval strike on them on their way out.

So now what?

The KB was not spotted. Again! Incredible. Moreover, both the BBs and CAs ended up in the same hex as the KB after their run into and out of Ponape, just as I anticipated. This means the whole kit and kaboodle is ready for another action. So for tomorrow I am operating on the assumption that the allies will return to Ponape. I am positioning the KB so I have a 50/50 chance of hitting the sweet spot where I can strike at the allies while they cannot strike back. I feel certain they will not be in the Ponape hex next turn. Instead, I am predicting they will be in one of the 6 hexes adjacent to Ponape. If they are southeast of Ponape, they will be in my sweet spot. If they are northeast, we will have a carrier clash. The 190+ fighters on Truk have been bumped up to 100% LRCAP. There is a huge chance that tomorrow will be it.





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(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 661
Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 6:11:54 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Oct. 25, 1943

I believe veji1 mentioned something about a recipe for humble pie?

This is going to be quick, with more analysis to follow. But I was able to pull off a one-sided carrier strike, close to my plans. Not quite as planned, since only 17 Hellcats were drawn off escorting a strike on my sacrificial ships. (Maybe if I had CAPed them the escorts would have been more numerous.)

Here are the most important strikes. Lots of messages about strike AC and escorts not being able to locate the target due to range or weather. Too bad I didn't have any fighters get separated and sweep on ahead. They might have knocked back the CAP some. OTOH, the first strikes in both the morning and afternoon took surprisingly few casualties. (refer to the picture below)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 119,114
Weather in hex: Heavy rain
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 47
A6M5 Zero x 189
A6M5b Zero x 21
A6M5c Zero x 9
B6N1 Jill x 22
B6N2 Jill x 87
D4Y1 Judy x 188
D4Y3 Judy x 12

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 8
FM-1 Wildcat x 21
F6F-3 Hellcat x 388

Allied Ships
CVL Cowpens, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
BB North Carolina, Bomb hits 3
BB South Dakota, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CV Enterprise, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
CV Hornet, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
CV Yorktown, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL St. Louis, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
DD Braine
CV Essex
BB Massachusetts
CV Bunker Hill
CVL Independence, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CL Santa Fe
DD Chevalier
DD Boyd
DD Conway
DD Converse, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Bradford
DD Claxton, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Brownson
DD Daly, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Hornet
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Yorktown
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring BB South Dakota
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Enterprise

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 119,114
Weather in hex: Heavy rain
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 60
A6M5c Zero x 9
B6N1 Jill x 15
B6N2 Jill x 35
D4Y1 Judy x 44
D4Y3 Judy x 11

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 4
FM-1 Wildcat x 14
F6F-3 Hellcat x 364

Allied Ships
CVL Independence, on fire
CV Yorktown, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Hornet, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DD Converse, on fire
BB South Dakota, on fire, heavy damage

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring an Allied CV
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Hornet

SKIPPING A RAID THAT DID NOT GET THROUGH

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 119,114
Weather in hex: Partial cloud Why is this different than in the morning?
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 36
A6M5 Zero x 127
A6M5b Zero x 21
A6M5c Zero x 37
B6N1 Jill x 60
B6N2 Jill x 96
D4Y1 Judy x 141
D4Y3 Judy x 23

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 7
FM-1 Wildcat x 18
F6F-3 Hellcat x 260 100 fewer than in the morning

Allied Ships
CV Essex, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CVL Cowpens, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Saratoga, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Wasp, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
CV Lexington, Bomb hits 3, on fire
CL Mobile
CV Pago Pago
BB Washington
BB Massachusetts, Bomb hits 1
BB Alabama, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
CL Helena, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Bache
DD Ammen
CV Bunker Hill, Bomb hits 3, on fire
DD Beale
DD Anthony
CVL Independence, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Abbot
DD Bennett, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVL Belleau Wood, Bomb hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Fletcher
BB North Carolina, Bomb hits 2, on fire

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Wasp
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Lexington
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVL Cowpens

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ponape at 119,114
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 55
A6M5c Zero x 6
B6N1 Jill x 15
B6N2 Jill x 6
D4Y1 Judy x 73

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 6
FM-1 Wildcat x 17
F6F-3 Hellcat x 236

Allied Ships
BB Alabama, on fire
CV Wasp, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB North Carolina, on fire
CV Bunker Hill, on fire
CV Lexington, on fire
DD Abbot
BB Massachusetts
CL Mobile

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Lexington

ALLIED STRIKE AGAINST SACRIFICIAL SHIPS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Truk at 116,110
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 17
SBD-5 Dauntless x 36


Allied aircraft losses
SBD-5 Dauntless: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
xAKL Uga Maru, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
xAKL Hakuyo Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SC CHa-23, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-12, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-13, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-17, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-20, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-24, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk

According to Tracker, CVs Wasp, Enterprise, CVLs Belleau Wood, Monterey, BB South Dakota, CL St Louis, and DD Abbot are sunk. Tracker lists 36 SBD-5 and 36 TBF-1 as destroyed on the ground. True to the lopsided nature of the altitude advantage and the assured death of escorts, the USN lost all of 27 fighters A2A. Including all losses for the day, the allies lost 122 planes while the Japanese lost 501. Only about 100 fighters were lost from the carriers. But our dive bomber and torpedo bomber strength seems to have been halved.

More analysis to follow.





Attachment (1)

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 662
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 6:28:07 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Here is a summary of the ships attacked. Multiple listings show ships that were attacked in multiple raids.

BB Massachusetts
BB Massachusetts, Bomb hits 1
BB Washington
BB Alabama, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
BB North Carolina, Bomb hits 3
BB North Carolina, Bomb hits 2, on fire
BB South Dakota, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage magazines flooded
BB South Dakota, on fire, heavy damage
CV Enterprise, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
CV Hornet, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires ammo storage explosion
CV Hornet, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
CV Wasp, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
CV Wasp, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Saratoga, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage magazines flooded
CV Yorktown, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Yorktown, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Lexington, Bomb hits 3, on fire
CV Lexington, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Pago Pago
CV Bunker Hill
CV Bunker Hill, Bomb hits 3, on fire
CV Essex
CV Essex, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CVL Cowpens, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
CVL Cowpens, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage ammo storage explosion
CVL Independence, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CVL Independence, on fire
CVL Independence, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage ammo storage explosion
CVL Belleau Wood, Bomb hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CL St. Louis, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
CL Santa Fe
CL Mobile
CL Helena, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Braine
DD Chevalier
DD Boyd
DD Conway
DD Converse, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Bradford
DD Claxton, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Brownson
DD Daly, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Bennett, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Bache
DD Ammen
DD Beale
DD Anthony
DD Abbot
DD Fletcher


< Message edited by cap_and_gown -- 10/12/2010 1:14:17 AM >

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 663
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 6:57:47 AM   
krupp_88mm


Posts: 406
Joined: 10/13/2008
Status: offline 		BB Massachusetts, Bomb hits 1
BB Alabama, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
BB North Carolina, Bomb hits 5, on fire
BB South Dakota, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage magazines flooded
CV Enterprise, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
CV Hornet, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires ammo storage explosion
CV Wasp, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
CV Saratoga, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage magazines flooded
CV Yorktown, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Lexington, Bomb hits 3, on fire
CV Bunker Hill, Bomb hits 3, on fire
CV Essex, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CVL Cowpens, Bomb hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage ammo storage explosion
CVL Independence, Bomb hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage ammo storage explosion
CVL Belleau Wood, Bomb hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CL St. Louis, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
CL Helena, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Converse, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Claxton, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Daly, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Bennett, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

combine dmg

new allied composition

8 CV(5 dmgd), 9-11 CVE /CVL (1 dmgd)

< Message edited by krupp_88mm -- 10/11/2010 10:46:46 AM >

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 664
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 7:23:10 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Question: Why do you suppose the number of fighters shown on the roll over for the allied TFs is zero? The number of bombers seems unchanged from previous roll overs. But the number of auxiliary and number of fighters are greatly reduced.

Another question: Does the sinking of some of the allied CVs mean that flight operations may be interrupted because some squadrons were diverted? Could some of the carriers be over stacked? I need to know to help me decide whether I need to close in to kill off cripples.

Added: Another factor here is that there are now 4 CV TFs rather than the 3 I have seen previously.

(in reply to krupp_88mm)
Post #: 665
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 8:06:16 AM   
Smeulders

 

Posts: 1879
Joined: 8/9/2009
Status: offline 		I can't say I'm a fan of your sacrificial TFs, but overall your approach was great, giving you a well deserved victory.  Congrats on lengthening the war

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 666
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 8:30:00 AM   
veji1

 

Posts: 1019
Joined: 7/9/2005
Status: offline 		wow, brilliant !! Does humble pie taste like pumpkin pie ?

Anyway, the real question now is : do you have any means of following through one way or the other to try to finish off a few cripples ? The difference between sinking 2 or 5 CVs is massive...


_____________________________

Adieu Ô Dieu odieux... signé Adam

(in reply to Smeulders)
Post #: 667
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 9:43:10 AM   
janh

 

Posts: 1216
Joined: 6/12/2007
Status: offline 		Holy ... !  You made my morning.  Awesome victory, congrats to your patient, but determined aggressive tactic and lady luck!  So even a superior allied fleet can melt away in one day...

Now I hope you will follow up this success with all forces you have, fan out to intercept all fleeing, burning capital ships at max speed and then waste the fleets at Kursaie!  Yeaaaah!

PS. I suspect Wasp is still out there, but Saratoga might have sunk it its place.


< Message edited by janh -- 10/11/2010 9:47:36 AM >

(in reply to veji1)
Post #: 668
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 10:41:29 AM   
veji1

 

Posts: 1019
Joined: 7/9/2005
Status: offline 		Fan out I am not sure about that, There are probably enough american ships and planes out there to hurt an imprudent player : It would be silly to end up losing a few CVs out of overeagerness.

The main question I suppose is whether he has enough CVs, CVLs and CVEs in good enough condition that could cover an orderly retreat, sacrificing the least possible number of capital ships... If he has enough fighter cover, if I was him I wouldn't cut it, scatter and run, but would try to get everybody together to follow and protect the moderately damaged ships, leaving behind only the critically injured ones that would slow down to much the group...

Can you fly planes to Ponape and attack from there ? what is the state of your CV force, can it have another go ?


_____________________________

Adieu Ô Dieu odieux... signé Adam

(in reply to janh)
Post #: 669
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 11:31:09 AM   
FatR

 

Posts: 2522
Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
Status: offline 		I think that it is still very risky for IJN carrier force to press on. Allied losses on ground do not indicate a large number of sunk carriers. A few more might succumb before the air phase of the next turn, but who knows. Meanwhile, Japanese suffered tremendous plane losses. A carrier pursuit in this situation means betting on loss of damaged Allied carriers during the night, or the opponent doing something stupid. Otherwise IJN will be at disadvantage.

On the other hand - depending on Japanese pilot situation and the opponent's ability to learn from mistakes - this might be the best chance for an overwhelming naval victory. Hard to say what to do. But if you decide to press on, I strongly advise to seek a surface engagement, after all, even if it is puts the surface attack force at huge risk. The Allied fleet must be burdened with cripples, so a surface intercept should be quite possible.

(in reply to veji1)
Post #: 670
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 12:05:57 PM   
veji1

 

Posts: 1019
Joined: 7/9/2005
Status: offline 		What is the level of the Ponape AF ? I suppose a mix of surface attacks and attacks from Ponape would be a good idea.. Or the KB could just move forward a couple of HEX to attack only the cripples, assuming the bulk of the allied fleet would retreat further... Though call indeed.

_____________________________

Adieu Ô Dieu odieux... signé Adam

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 671
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 1:29:06 PM   
Johraiken

 

Posts: 8
Joined: 10/2/2010
Status: offline 		Wow, a massive victory, but not a decapitating strike.

How do you plan to follow up? Swamp the area with subs? More aircraft, or plan to send in the STF to finish the job?

(in reply to veji1)
Post #: 672
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 6:34:22 PM   
KenchiSulla


Posts: 2948
Joined: 10/22/2008
From: the Netherlands
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

Question: Why do you suppose the number of fighters shown on the roll over for the allied TFs is zero? The number of bombers seems unchanged from previous roll overs. But the number of auxiliary and number of fighters are greatly reduced



Not to sure about the auxiliary but some of those fighters might have been lost because they couldnt land on burning home ships?

_____________________________

AKA Cannonfodder

"It happened, therefore it can happen again: this is the core of what we have to say. It can happen, and it can happen everywhere.”
¯ Primo Levi, writer, holocaust survivor

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 673
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 6:41:14 PM   
veji1

 

Posts: 1019
Joined: 7/9/2005
Status: offline 		actually when you look at his CVs, 2 are probably gone, 2 are badly damaged, the other hit ones should be fine. Regarding the CVLs, 2 should be either gone or very damaged...

In these conditions pursueing might be very very risky... an attack from Ponape and Truk while keeping the KB safe might be the best approach, albeit un unsatsifactory one. Ideally you would want him to have lost 4CVs, 2CVLs and 1BB. If you get that with no hurt on your side it is brilliant.. If you get only 2CVs, 2CVLs and 1BB, it is still a nice victory but doesn't give you much time of rest... Those 2 extra CVs make a massive difference.


_____________________________

Adieu Ô Dieu odieux... signé Adam

(in reply to KenchiSulla)
Post #: 674
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 8:39:40 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		What a nice victory C&G! I think the clearest indication of the number of sinkings is the AIR LOSSES report; I think you only sank ENTERPRISE, though clearly more CVs are on the ropes, even with a little FOW.

Questions:

1. DO YOU PRESS ON? I think the answer depends on what you have available in the way of LBA to fly out to your CVs, but if you can put together a credible strike you HAVE to press on.

He will be tethered to those crippled CVs, so is in a very vulnerable spot, though looking at those results, can probably put up 160+ HELLCATS on CAP tommorow at least.

2. ALLIED MISTAKES: I think your opponent made a couple very critical errors here that you exploited.

First, he didn't have any strike planes set to 8 hexes. Why? That is a big mistake.

Second, he parked his CVs in one very predictable spot, which makes you very vulnerable to the IJN, whose only advantage at this stage is RANGE, one you took full advantage of.

Both skill and Lady Luck have to be on your side for a one-sided strike, which is exactly what you got.

If you have ANY means, I would press-on.

BANZAI! Combined Fleet planning to the "Decisive Battle" paid off!

_____________________________


(in reply to veji1)
Post #: 675
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 10:19:52 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks everyone for your comments. I am still evaluating available intelligence before deciding what to do, though I would very much like to swoop in and hit the cripples. As Johraiken noted, a victory, but not a decapitation, at least not yet.

Note to Q-Ball: The allies are limited by code to 7 hexes. It has nothing to do with the range settings on the CV AC. They were all probably set to max range, but that hardly matters.

Here is some more info:

EDIT: AFTER REVIEWING THE COMBAT REPORTS SOME MORE I FOUND THAT THE LEXINGTON SHOWED MORE DAMAGE THAN I ORIGINALLY NOTED. THEREFORE, THE CALCULATIONS ON ALLIED CAP AVAILABLE HAVE BEEN REVISED. THIS POST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE NEW INFO.

After looking at the composition of the CAP, I can say that the following CVs/CVLs/CVEs were present:

10 CVs
Essex, Yorktown II, Lexington, Saratoga, Yorktown, Enterprise, Hornet, Wasp, Lexington II, Bunker Hill

3 CVLs
Independence, Belleau Wood, Cowpens (Princeton ate a torp earlier and is probably at PH repairing)

4 CVEs (in the adjacent hex, not the hex attacked. they contributed spill over CAP)
Santee, Anzio, Corregigor, Natoma

Morning CAP, 388 Hellcats, plus 17 on escort = 405
In the afternoon, the CAP from the following ships was absent:
Yorktown morning raid: Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
Enterprise sunk
Hornet Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
Cowpens Bomb hits 2, heavy fires

Afternoon CAP = 260 Hellcats
Difference between morning and afternoon CAP = -145
Less 20 for Cowpens = 125, 36 x 3 = 108, giving 17 left over for damage/ops/A2A

So this tallies up nicely for concluding the 3 CV and 1 CVL were put out of action in the morning phase.

The key thing seems to be the "heavy fires" message. So, who else had "heavy fires" in the afternoon?

Saratoga Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
Wasp Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Lexington, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
Independence Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage

So what? Another 3x36 + 1x20 = 130 reduction in fighters?

Overall reduction in fighter cover = 275? From an initial CAP of ~400, the allies have ~125 Hellcats + ~80 Wildcats = total CAP of 205 worst case.

If the KB moves into range in order to finish off cripples, the allies may send out ~50% of their fighters as escorts, giving a CAP of 100.

What is available to the KB?
Fighters = 430
Dive Bombers = 215
Torpedo Bombers = 165

What about Ponape?
It is a size 3 and is somewhat short of supplies for any major operation. Also the runway is moderately damaged: 40 points. That would be fine for the morning, but by afternoon it could be shut down again. I could still fly in some fighters to provide LRCAP over the KB.

More info:

The Japanese had an increase of 749 VPs. 122 from allied AC and 2 from base expansion, leaving 625 from ships. We know Enterprise sank for 349 VP, leaving 278 for other ships. CVLs are 130 a piece, South Dakota is 216, and at least 2 DDs sank at 10 points a piece.

More analysis in a later post.

Questions:

I come back to asking about why the rollover shows the allies as not having any fighters or auxiliaries. I also want to know about over stacking. It has been a long time since I have fought a CV battle, not since UV days, and I am not sure about planes being diverted and over stacking. Is over stacking easy to solve by simply rebasing? What about the damaged planes, though?

For those advocating a surface action: How can I be sure of hitting them? If I go with a surface action, I want it to be a full speed in-and-out. So if I aim at a particular hex and the allies are not in it, will the reaction setting give me an intercept? The only time I have seen reaction work is when using patrol zones. Maybe I could do a full speed, 2 patrol zone routine where the first patrol zone is where I want to race to, and the second is my retreat hex.





< Message edited by cap_and_gown -- 10/12/2010 1:20:23 AM >

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 676
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 10:34:50 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		The key here is that you have a dichotomy between your two priorities:

1. You want to kill lots of Allied CVs/CVLs/CVEs etc.

2. You don't want to suffer losses to your own CV fleet.


So, why not just move eastward at a rate calculated to be just a little faster than his moderately crippled ships can run? He won't risk all for the cripples but killing the cripples will convert a small victory into a major one.

Assume he can run east at a rate of 8 hexes per day ( probably only 6 but let's be nice to him ) and just move eastward 10 hexes yourself. This'll put you well within range of all of his cripples and possibly even of some of the lesser damaged of his other ships whilst giving his main fleet more than enough space to run away ( it can move about 14 to 16 hexes per turn ). By showing an aggressive pursuit you'll force his fleet to run hard on the next day and might even bag a few more cripples. If he really can only muster under 200 fighters for CAP then the risk is very much worth it. Put up a strong CAP yourself as I would argue losing more strike planes is acceptable now as in 3 months you can have retrained enough pilots to replace what you lose while in 3 months any CVs he loses will still be lost. What you really want to do is avoid any IJN CV losses ( hence the slightly stronger CAP today ).

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 677
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 10:46:47 PM   
veji1

 

Posts: 1019
Joined: 7/9/2005
Status: offline 		but nemo what happens if he decides that it is worth it to retreat slowly to cover his damaged ships ?

I suppose your tactic makes sense overall...


_____________________________

Adieu Ô Dieu odieux... signé Adam

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 678
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 11:13:03 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Another question/observation: everyone is assuming he will retreat. Why not continue the invasion?! After all, they still have 5 operational CV and 4 CVE. Of course, 3 of the CVs have some damage. Only 2 remain undamaged. Still, if everyone is saying "caution, caution," why not invade?

Nah, probably not.

(in reply to veji1)
Post #: 679
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/11/2010 11:28:44 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		cap and gown,

witpqs will retreat... It is a question of psychology. Just to cover for the eventuality that he doesn't you should move your SC TF to the threatened island and have it remain there, interdicting his amphibious TFs. Since your CVs will end up east of the SC TFs if he DOES retreat your CVs will shield your SC TFs. If he doesn't retreat then your SC TFs will die in battle overnight as they face his invasion fleets and his own SC TFs.

Either way the SC TFs won't suffer from air attacks tomorrow.


As to what will happen if he retreats slowly. He may but you can never have a plan which covers every base. Covering the island with SC TFs and putting your own carriers east of the island to provide cover for your SC TF and annihilation strikes vs his cripples is a good solid plan which achieves most of the objectives no matter what the Allies do. Will it be perfect for every eventuality? No but war is risk.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 680
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/12/2010 1:00:59 AM   
FatR

 

Posts: 2522
Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
Status: offline 		Damaged ships are more far more valuable than his invasion target. Common sense dictates retreat.

As about exposing surface TFs to airstrikes in the morning, if you intend to continue the carrier battle, this will actually be a useful diversion.
Reaction seems to work when you allow retirement. I still prefer patrol zones, as tried and true, but, again, even if the surface force fails to retreat in time, this will likely just divert strikes from your more valuable assets. It's a risk, but the possible reward justifies it.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 681
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/12/2010 1:29:10 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		First off, let me note that I took a look at the CR again and found that I had not correctly noted that the Lexington had heavy fires and heavy damage. Therefore, my calculation on allied CAP possibilities were off. I have updated that post to reflect my new thinking. Bottom line: The allies probably only have 200 planes available for CAP. This does not, however, include LRCAP out of Kusaei.

Second, I am going to do some testing to see if I can send in a surface force to intercept the cripples. Moonlight is down to 3% so if we do send in the surface raiders and find someone, it will be a knife fight.

Finally, I think that all this discussion of chasing cripples has overlooked the very important fact that Kusaei Island is a level 5 airfield. SBDs and TBFs based there can range out 11 hexes. Mitchells can range out 14 hexes. As a result, I am not going to send the KB any closer than 12 hexes from Kusaei. The Mitchells will be bad enough. Also facing SBDs is a non-starter for me.





Attachment (1)

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 682
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/12/2010 1:45:44 AM   
Johraiken

 

Posts: 8
Joined: 10/2/2010
Status: offline 		Do you have any subs in the area?

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 683
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/12/2010 7:35:41 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline 		Wow.  Great execution.

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Pax

(in reply to Johraiken)
Post #: 684
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/12/2010 9:22:12 AM   
janh

 

Posts: 1216
Joined: 6/12/2007
Status: offline 		I think you have a really golden opportunity at hand to finish this off as a decapitating strike.  That would put an end to allied offensives in Cent and SWPAC for more than a year, maybe two.

Leaving him flee now, would give you just a tactical victory, from which he will recover in 3-6 months.  Getting all of the CV/CVL cripples and some of the hurt BB/CA/CL now would make that a strategic victory. 

Yorktown (heavy fires, heavy damage), Hornet (heavy fires), Cowpens (heavy fires), Saratoga  (heavy fires, heavy damage), Wasp (heavy fires, heavy damage), CV Lexington, (heavy damage), Independence (heavy damage)

And getting a hit on the last remaining CV, or even his invasion fleets, would crown this victory as decapitating one!  Though supported by the LBA in Kursaie, Essex, Yorktown II, Lexington II, Bunker Hill, Belleau Wood, will be able to put up a good fight, I would think that even loosing one, two or three carriers would be a fine deal if you can in return get all cripples, and a hit on the rest. 

Tough call, but I would probably gamble and following the enemy eastward.  Even if that brings Kursaie and another engagement with his remaining ships into the game. How about using your CA and BB to suppress Kursaie instead of hunting the cripples, and have KB take over the latter?



(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 685
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/12/2010 10:15:59 AM   
veji1

 

Posts: 1019
Joined: 7/9/2005
Status: offline 		how far could SBDs be escorted though ? Could you go right behind Ponape and have some LRCAP from there above the KB, even if this LRCAP is quite ineffective and only works in the morning phase before the base is closed from the other Marshall airfields ?

Can't wait to see what happens.


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(in reply to janh)
Post #: 686
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/12/2010 8:48:46 PM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
Joined: 1/14/2007
From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		Wow amazing execution.

As far as your bait tfs being considered gamey I must point out the Japanese used that tactic historically. Thats how Shoho was lost and later the Ryuho (sp) was lost in the Guadacanal campaign.

Not gamey at all in my opinion.


(in reply to veji1)
Post #: 687
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/12/2010 8:58:44 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Ketza

Wow amazing execution.

As far as your bait tfs being considered gamey I must point out the Japanese used that tactic historically. Thats how Shoho was lost and later the Ryuho (sp) was lost in the Guadacanal campaign.

Not gamey at all in my opinion.



Ketza-big difference in TF composition. IRL, the Shoho and Ryuho were bait TFs, but were themselves military targets of (some) value.

Big difference versus a couple rusty PBs and xAK/xAKLs. Do you think the Allied pilots flying those DBs would have foregone a crack at carriers operating in the area to dump their bombs on such a wantonly obvious ruse?

My opinion, not that it's being asked, is that using PB/xAK/xAKLs to soak up either SCTF ammo (see Cap'n gown / Sprior's AAR) or carrier sorties is gamey. This colors my impression of this execution, which was otherwise quite impressive.

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(in reply to Ketza)
Post #: 688
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/12/2010 8:59:36 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Johraiken

Do you have any subs in the area?

There are 10 of them very clearly identified in the screenshot Cap n Gown provided in post 682.

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(in reply to Johraiken)
Post #: 689
RE: Hitting the sweet spot - 10/12/2010 9:27:57 PM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
Joined: 1/14/2007
From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		Well Chickenboy I agree with your conclusion that the Tfs should be made up of something of substantial military value. In my own games I would do that.

There are some aspects of the game that are frustrating like when a player swarms an area with one ship AKL convoys that we all have to deal with. I suppose there is no way to really draw the line between gaminess and tactics as everyone has varying opinions. In this particular instance I didnt seem to be gamey to me but that was probably because the outcome was very atypical of what one would expect of such an encounter given the date in the game.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 690
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