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RE: Bid Thee Return - 5/27/2011 8:44:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/22/42

Cribtop: The Sumatra invasion was set for late March for many important reasons. I'll take another look at it to see if it makes sense to move things up to maybe January if I focus on the western rather than eastern end. It might. As for Ceylon, the Allies already hold three bases and are about to land several brigades at Koggala to move on lightly defended Colombo.

Big Game Hunting: Wahoo on patrol near Saipan put a torpedo into Musashi. That's an interesting clue as to where Q-Ball is deploying some power. I'd much rather stumble across a big BB there than, say, the Bay of Bengal.

SigInt: More reports suggesting enemy focus on Soerabaja including one that 52nd Div. is heading there...but just three days ago I got a report it was bound for Lae. So, either Brad made a snap decision to switch destinations, or he's being clever with SigInt deception practices. I'll have to pay very careful attention to reports of where units are to see if they confirm preveious reports as to where they were bound. Also a report that Iwo Jima has a garrison of just 1,000, which may be useful for deception purposes when I pull the trigger on the Sumatra invasion.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/27/2011 8:46:27 PM >

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 1831
RE: Bid Thee Return - 5/28/2011 1:51:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/23/42 to 12/25/42

India: Vengeance dive bombers from Jaffna, Ceylon, sink three xAK and a PB near Trincomalee with troops aboard. I assume, but I'm not 100% sure, that this was a Dunkirk mission leaving Trincomalee rather than transports arriving with reinforcements. An Aussie brigade is landing at Koggala with another to arrive tonight. We'll see if that's enough to re-take Colombo. The Allies have the middle three bases on the Imphal to Ledo line. The other two will fall before New Years, meaning Japan's sole remaining bases in theater will be Trinomalee and Colombo. My, what a change in just three months!

China: Maneuvering on the Sian front to try to isolate an exposed IJA division plus a regiment that will be facing 5,000 Chinese AV if Brad doesn't act quickly.

Sumatra: Still mulling over the change from "east Sumatra" to "west Sumatra," but leaning that way. Continued efforts to get troops, ships and aircraft from USA into position.

Pacific: A number of deception missions and dividend invasions (moving into the vacuum that should be created when Brad moves to counter Sumatra) are still planned. One under consideration is an invasion of Iwo Jima, Marcus, and perhaps Wake Island. Not sure whether that will be a dividend mission or the opening act of an elaborate ruse followed closely by some big noise up around the Kuriles. I like the idea, though.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1832
RE: Bid Thee Return - 5/28/2011 5:03:24 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/23/42 to 12/25/42

India: Vengeance dive bombers from Jaffna, Ceylon, sink three xAK and a PB near Trincomalee with troops aboard. I assume, but I'm not 100% sure, that this was a Dunkirk mission leaving Trincomalee rather than transports arriving with reinforcements. An Aussie brigade is landing at Koggala with another to arrive tonight. We'll see if that's enough to re-take Colombo. The Allies have the middle three bases on the Imphal to Ledo line. The other two will fall before New Years, meaning Japan's sole remaining bases in theater will be Trinomalee and Colombo. My, what a change in just three months!

China: Maneuvering on the Sian front to try to isolate an exposed IJA division plus a regiment that will be facing 5,000 Chinese AV if Brad doesn't act quickly.

Sumatra: Still mulling over the change from "east Sumatra" to "west Sumatra," but leaning that way. Continued efforts to get troops, ships and aircraft from USA into position.

Pacific: A number of deception missions and dividend invasions (moving into the vacuum that should be created when Brad moves to counter Sumatra) are still planned. One under consideration is an invasion of Iwo Jima, Marcus, and perhaps Wake Island. Not sure whether that will be a dividend mission or the opening act of an elaborate ruse followed closely by some big noise up around the Kuriles. I like the idea, though.

Isn't Iwo within 20 hexes of the Japanese home islands? You may be risking a 1/1/44 triggering of Kamikazes, akin to your Kurile invasion versus Miller.

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Post #: 1833
RE: Bid Thee Return - 5/28/2011 7:09:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/26/42

Chickenboy: Good to see you posting, I've long espoused a policy of ignoring the triggering of kamikazees if the plan otherwise makes sense. In other words, I don't factor kamikazee-triggering into my evaluation of a plan. Just a personal prefernce on my part.

India: The Allies should take Ledo tomorrow and Imphal in no more than three days. India will once again belong to the Allies, excepting Ceylon, which will take a few weeks simply due to marching distances for my troops. SigInt reports 18th Div. at Mandalay. I like seeing an IJ Div. where it won't be needed. The Allies will do a little showing of 27th US Div. and a Marine RCT at Imphal and then around Akyab over the coming weeks - part of the plan to show that the Allies intend to prress into Burma.

Sumatra: SigInt shows that 6th Air Div. is at Palembang and 12th Base Force at Medan.

Oz: This critical part of the Allied maskirovka is going well. Brad is paying alot of attention to the Allied army besieging Daly Waters and to the force that recently took Exmouth. A USN sub just sank a PB near Derby. Lots of SigInt re troops going to Soerabaja. Brad is clearly concerned about Allied intentions in this region, and it should be easy to reinforce his concerns when the time comes. Also, the Marine 'chute battalion prepped for Terapo in New Guinea is in place at Portland Roads. When the time comes for deception, it will attack and enemy radar will pick up a fleet of empty ships threatening Port Moresby.

Noumea: The Allies are resurrecting this operation, cancelled just short of climax a month or more ago. The base is very lightly defended and carriers can handle CAP for the threat posed by Luganville and Espiritu Santo. The carriers are on the way after refueling at Adelaide. While getting Noumea will be nice, the main thing is to demonstrate once again Allied intentions in and around Oz. I am very, very alert to the risk of a clash with the KB. The Allies already have a ton of pickets ships all around the region, none of which are getting picked up by enemy patrols. More pickets in the form of flanker DDs will fan out in front of the carriers.

The Pacific: The shifting of troops will continue right up until the invasion of Sumatra takes place. Another big convoy carrying engineers and base forces just departed San Diego. This one includes a bunch of AP that will remain at Oz to participate in the invasion (all or nearly all AP go to that operation while xAP will remain n the Pacific to handle the possible Iwo/Marcus invasions and the Kuriles feint).

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1834
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/3/2011 3:00:07 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Sumatra:  Per previous discussion, the Allies have tweaked the Sumatra invasion to focus on the crescent from Padang west to Sabang and east to Langsa.  This only involved changing orders for about ten units, including several American divisions now going to Padang and Sabang rather than places like Benkolen and Prabaemolith.  Also, more weight was included in Port Blair package.  If the Allies can get ashore and take these three key bases (Padang, Sabang and Port Blair) along with the numerous important island outposts that should be lightly guarded (Nicobars, the islands off the Sumatra coast), there shouldn't be any way that Japan can dislodge the force.  The fact that the Allies will be have an uninterrupted link to Ceylon will tie things together better than the original "east Sumatra" plan.

Diversions:  The Allies will throw feints at the Kuriles and NW Oz while engaging in genuine landings at Iwo, Marcus and perhaps Wake Island.  Also, paratroops will strike at Terapo on New Guinea if that post remains vacant.

Current Deceptions:  The Allies continue operations against northwestern Oz and are proceeding with the invasion of Noumea.  The former operation has Brad's full attention.  The latter will be covered by carriers and will take place within two weeks.  Both of these will continue the appearance of a threat to New Guinea and the eastern DEI.

Timetable:  The Allies are awaiting additional transports over the next month or so.  I'll be in a tenuous trade-off position - the sooner I strike the better as Brad is clearly looking at Oz right now, but the longer I wait the more good transports I'll have at my disposal.  The earliest the Allies can move is probably two months.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1835
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/4/2011 2:28:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/30/42
 
India:  The Allies reclaim Imphal, the last IJ base in India.  This is significant only as a symbol.  You only have to go back into September to find the Japanese besieging Jalagon, north of Bombay, as their high water mark.  The collapse was sudden and swift.  The last remaining IJ bases offshore:  Addu (which should fall tomorrow), Diego Garcia (I'm debating when to go for this as it could impact Alllied operations against Sumatra and the Andamans); and Colombo/Trincomalee (should fall in a few weeks when Aussie troops arrive).

China:  Maneuvering and countermaneuvering going on NE of Sian.  Brad tried to orchestrate a little ambush of a a Chinese army, but it was pretty obvious and the Chinese were working on an ambush of their own.  Tomorrow, 4,200 Chinese AV get a crack at about 700 well-dug-in but undersupplied IJ AV in the forests.

SoPac:  The Noumea invasion troops begin loading at Auckland tonight.  The carriers will arrive in about three days.  I think Japan is focused fully on NW Oz and that Brad has no interest in Noumea.  That could be a ruse, so I"m making heavy use of picket ships (merchant marine) and flankers (destroyers) in order to avoid a nasty carrier ambush.

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Post #: 1836
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/4/2011 9:15:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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China:  Irony north of Sian as the Japanese caught up to and mauled a single Chinese corps that was part of an army encirciling a Japanese army in the forests; but the rest of the Chinese encirclers combined with a Chinese army already in place to maul a Japanese division.  The net result isn't much as Japan has brought in reinforcements, but shouldn't have enough to threaten the Chinese MLR in the forests north of Sian.

India:  The Allies take Addu Atoll.  Japan is evacuating the remnants of its Ceylon garrison by sub, so by the time the Aussies arrive at Colombo and Trincomalee, both bases should change hands easily.  Allied ASW is contesting the sub withrawal and managed to sink one IJN submersible a few days ago.

SoPac:  The Noumea invasion fleet will depart Auckland tonight.  Rendezvous with the carriers will take place south of Norfolk Island in about three days.  Lots of Allied pickets have been in place around Noumea for months now without any sign of detection, which is the most reliable indication that Brad isn't much interested in this outpost.  I hope that's true.

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Post #: 1837
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/4/2011 10:19:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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China:  In the final act of the little dance that was going on north of Sian, the Chinese bushwacked a Japane tank regiment.  Now, way down south near Kweilin, another Chinese army is going to see if it is strong enough to take on an IJA division.  Force ratio is 2000 AV Chinese v. 500 AV Japanese, so we have a shot.

India:  Recon shows just one IJ unit at Diego Garcia, and several SigInt reports over the past week claim that it is 96th IJAAF base force.  On the possibility that this report is accurate, the Allies will try a snap invasion withan an Aussie pioneer unit (40 AV) that is 100% prepped.  D-Day will be about a week.  If that doesn't work, an Aussie brigade and an Indian division are prepping.

Sumatra:  SigInt that IJ 54th Construction Regiment aboard a maru bound for Sabang.  We're getting signals and indications that Japan is giving attention to Sumatra, but more to NW Oz and the eastern DEI.

Oz:  The Aussie army at Daly Waters still isn't getting good odds vs. the isolated IJ army, but we'll keep trying now and then because enemy supply should be limited.

Noumea:  The invasion transports are at the rendezvous between NZ and Norfolk Island.  The carriers should arrive day after tomorrow.  "Dark red" icon for an IJ TF well northwest of Noumea.  I have no idea what it is, but I've deployed additional pickets and flankers.  If it's the KB, I want to know it so that I can skedaddle.  If it's merchants or other potential victims, I want to know it so that the Allied carriers can strike.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1838
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/4/2011 11:36:47 PM   
crsutton


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From: Maryland
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

1/1/43
 
China:  In the final act of the little dance that was going on north of Sian, the Chinese bushwacked a Japane tank regiment.  Now, way down south near Kweilin, another Chinese army is going to see if it is strong enough to take on an IJA division.  Force ratio is 2000 AV Chinese v. 500 AV Japanese, so we have a shot.

India:  Recon shows just one IJ unit at Diego Garcia, and several SigInt reports over the past week claim that it is 96th IJAAF base force.  On the possibility that this report is accurate, the Allies will try a snap invasion withan an Aussie pioneer unit (40 AV) that is 100% prepped.  D-Day will be about a week.  If that doesn't work, an Aussie brigade and an Indian division are prepping.

Sumatra:  SigInt that IJ 54th Construction Regiment aboard a maru bound for Sabang.  We're getting signals and indications that Japan is giving attention to Sumatra, but more to NW Oz and the eastern DEI.

Oz:  The Aussie army at Daly Waters still isn't getting good odds vs. the isolated IJ army, but we'll keep trying now and then because enemy supply should be limited.

Noumea:  The invasion transports are at the rendezvous between NZ and Norfolk Island.  The carriers should arrive day after tomorrow.  "Dark red" icon for an IJ TF well northwest of Noumea.  I have no idea what it is, but I've deployed additional pickets and flankers.  If it's the KB, I want to know it so that I can skedaddle.  If it's merchants or other potential victims, I want to know it so that the Allied carriers can strike.


Canoe,

Since it has been a while, perhaps a couple of screenies are in order. Northern OZ and China come to mind.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1839
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/9/2011 6:08:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/2/43 to 1/5/43
 
New Caledonia:  The Allied invasion TF will slip north of Norfolk Island tonight, with D-Day in two or three days.  The Allied carriers are trailing a few hexes and trying to replenish fuel stores.  A large number of Allied picket ships and flankers all around New Caledonia and to the north, and none have been picked up by recon.  An enemy picket ship was just reported south of New Caledonia - a PB.  I think Brad is concentrating his forces in the eastern DEI to handle the perceived threat coming from SW Oz, so I don't expect to encounter enemy carriers.  SigInt that CVE Hosho is on the way to Soerabaja was encouraging in this regard.

Oz:  The Allied army at Daly Waters has reduced forts to two and achieved 1:1 odds on the most recent deliberate attack.  This base should fall in days.

India:  Two Aussie brigades reclaimed Colombo, leaving Japan with just Trincomalee, which will fall soon, and Diego Garcia.  An IJ transport TF is approaching the latter.  I'm interested in seeing whether it's on an evacuation mission or reinforcement mission.

China:  On the southern front, in the forests west of Liuchow, a Chinese army is making progress in defeating an IJA division, but I think Brad may be able to extract it before it is forced to retreat.

Crsutton:  I owe you some maps and will get to that sooner or later.

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Post #: 1840
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/10/2011 3:07:24 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/6/42 and 1/7/42
 
Invasion of Noumea:  D-Day was January 7 and went smoothly.  The troops are ashore in good shape, the opposition is as light as expected, and enemy air sorties from Luganville were readily handled by CAP (Japan losing 46 aircraft on the day to 8 for the Allies).  Early in the morning I-159 took a shot at CV Enterprise, which of course gave me a heart attack.  The carriers are just east of New Caledonia and will move a bit south of Noumea tomorrow.  The infantry should take the base tomorrow, thus permitting LBA to handle some of the CAP duty.  Most of the transports, combat ships, and carriers will begin retiring tomorrow if things go well.

What it Means:  This was the last of the major deception plans that have been in the works for a year - build up NoPac, invade islands in the Pacific (Baker a conquest, Wake a failure), reclaim Norfolk Island (done), ground offensive towards NW Oz (going well), invasion of Exmouth (accomplished), and finally the invasion of New Caledonia.  All of this is to give the impression of Allied intentions in NoPac, SoPac, and NW Oz/eastern DEI.  Everything suggest that Brad has taken due notice and is particularly concerned about the DEI.  The Alies will continue to feed these perceptions, while the real invasion of the western DEI is now just two months away (or thereabouts).

Oz:  The Allies will try another attack at Daly Waters tomorrow.  An IJ relief force just reclaimed Katherine, but I think it will be too late to save Daly Waters.  Whatever happens here is fine, though.  I just want my troops active, with lots of noise to hold Brad's attention.

India:  Japan is reinforcing Diego Garcia, which makes things a bit ticklish as it's not beyond possibility that Brad will commit carriers if he thinks he can hit a juicy amphibious force.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1841
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/10/2011 8:31:36 PM   
Capt. Harlock


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From: Los Angeles
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quote:

1/6/42 and 1/7/42


That seems very early for a counter-invasion. I assume you meant 1943?

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Post #: 1842
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/10/2011 9:45:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yup, 1943.

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Post #: 1843
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/10/2011 10:24:15 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		A query: Has your experience in your game vs ChezDaJez led you to re-evaluate your operational planning/strategic goals/phasing after the delay in this game?

_____________________________

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Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 1844
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/11/2011 4:57:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Interesting question, Nemo.

The intermission in this game, followed by the intense activity and thought given to the game with Chez, has made me much more knowledgeable about the game. I'm better able to "see" the map and understand how to employ my forces. This has translated into strategic, operational, and even some tactical changes in the way I'm playing.

Overall, though, I still like the core strategy for the Allies in this game. The basic outline -deceive Japan by giving every appearance that the Allies are concentrating on Oz, SoPac and NoPac; feints to take place towards NW Oz, New Guinea, and NoPac; followed by major Allied landings in Sumatra, Andamans and vicinity; followed by Allied landings in the Bonins, Marcus, and possibly Wake Island.

I may reverse the order of the last two - the CenPac operations may take place before the Indian Ocean operations. Not sure yet.

I've also tweaked the Indian Ocean operation - changing focus to western Sumatra rather than eastern. IMO this offers almost the same benefits at less risk.

Brad is a good player - he's very careful to protect his assets, but he's an aggressive player when he decides its time to strike. I consider him most dangerous. I believe he will have his air assets, plenty of naval assets, and decent garrisons in the Sumatra area.

I also beleive the Allied force will be so massive that success is probable. The Allies should get a massive lodgement in the area, which will permit the Allies to begin making Palembang, Singapore and Malaya very hot.

The next target for the Allies will almost certainly be Malaya and Burma.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 1845
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/11/2011 5:04:12 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		One question as regards the rollback in India....

Might it make sense to, rather than just rolling his front line back, make a significant amphibious invasion of Burma now. That way you could trap his army in India, cause massive consternation and force the committment of his navy to the Indian Ocean to cover an amphibious evacuation of the trapped forces in India - giving you free rein in the Pacific. Most importantly taking Burma now, before he can create a proper defensive line, would move your future offensives in this area up by a year ( the amount of time it appears to take to grind down a proper Burma IJA defence in 43/44 ).

Could you post a map showing what Japan still currently holds around India? I've quite lost track of whom holds Ceylon.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1846
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/11/2011 5:06:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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New Caledonia:  The Allies reclaim very lightly defended Noumea.  This is an interesting development - Brad thinks I've made a mistake by allocating so much to a lightly defended and "out of the way" location.  But for the Allies this was all about employing a major force to give the appearance of interest in a region the Allies aren't interested in.  And Japan missed a chance by being so ultra-cautious to protect against troop losses.  A decent garrison here - perhaps a regiment or a mixed brigade - would have prevented the Allies from doing this in all likelihhood, and would have given Japan a chance to strike at carriers had Brad attended to things.  He didn't care about New Caledonia, but by not caring he lost an opportunity.  With Noumea in Allied hands, all combat ships and carriers, and most transports, begin to retire to the south.

Oz:  The Allies get 3:1 odds at Daly Waters, dropping forts to one.  This base will change hands any day now.

Diego Garcia:  The Allies pretty much have to reclaim this base prior to any move on Sumatra.  The downside is that such a move will, in Brad's mind, raise the threat level to Sumatra.  So the Allies will try to get by without using too much force or any new assets.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1847
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/11/2011 5:13:54 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Indian operation essentially wrapped up weeks ago:

1.  About seven divisions were trapped in India.  Five of those have since been eliminated.  Two (1st near Calcutta and 48th south of Bombay) are rotting in the jungles.  Brad asked that I eliminate those isolated divisions so that he can rebuild them (we're not playing with the beta patch) and I accomidated him, though I really thought the isolation was the price he paid for such a massive invasion of India.

2.  All that's left is a few very small units in Ceylon, which are being mopped up.  

3.  The Japanese have a decent force at Akyab.  The Allies will maneuver behind it, showing some major units (including a Marine regiment) so that Brad might surmise that the next course of action is an overland campaign into Burma.  Japan does have at least one division (18th) in upper Burma.

4.  Any move further east towards Moulmein, Tavoy or the Malay coast would require Allied carriers to provide CAP.  That would result in a concentration of IJ land, sea and air forces in the region.  I don't want that prior to the Sumatra invasion, so I won't do it.  (The Allied carriers are about to "disappear" from sight, except for CVEs which I may employ here and there).

5.  The Sumatra campaign is tentatively scheduled for late March (to allow some AP conversion to APAs), but that's subject to being moved up if I like the looks of things.  Most troops are now in place in Oz, India and Capetown.  Most ships are in place - the final installment of APs is currently enroute from San Diego carrying the last base forces.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1848
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/11/2011 9:09:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/9/43
 
New Caledonia:  The Allied ships have withdrawn to the south, leaving behind just a few xAK unloading supplies.  Kiwi Kittyhawks have taken over local CAP duty.  The Allies will bring in more engineers and will take action to give the appearance of genuine interest in Efate and Luganville.  Indeed, troops have been prepping for Luganville for a long time, and eventually the Allies will move on that base, but the main thing for the next two months is to build and bomb and have ships active in this theater.

Oz:  The Aussies reclaim Daly Waters.  Two IJA regiments and an armored unit are trapped and will be pummeled to death.  An Aussie armored unit slipped over to Derby and found it garrisoned by a small IJ base force.  I don't know if 20 AV is enough to take the base, but the Aussie cav will shock attack tomorrow.  Again, this is more about noise and perception than territory.

Diego Garcia:  The Japanese brought in another unit - I'm guessing no more than a Naval Guard.  I have a UK brigade (understrenght at about 60 AV) and an Aussie pioneer unit (40 AV) on the way.  I'll sniff around and establish pickets before committing the troops.  If more are needed, an understrength Indian division is at Mangalore - I'll have to pay PP for it, but that's okay as it can later take part in the Sumatra/Nicobars/Andaman campaign.

Akyab:  The Japanese have evacuated Akyab due to the threat posed by Allied units just to the west.  The Allies will send unrestricted units, including a Marine regiment, across the border to give the appearance of a mounting threat to western Burma.  The use of Allied 4EB is increasing in tempo to further appearances.

Vacation:  Canoe HQ will be on vacation for a week.  This may be my last report until late next weekend.  You guys have a good one and I'll see you on the waning side of June.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1849
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/11/2011 10:11:08 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Have fun!

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Post #: 1850
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/19/2011 12:47:10 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/10/43
 
Back to regularly scheduled life, where it will be a little hard to get back into the routine of things. 

India:  The Allies should reclaim Trincomalee within the week.  The enemy has abandoned Akyab, which will be taken in a few days.  Diego Garcia is the last holdout.

Sumatra:  Oops, Brad just discovered one of several hold-out Dutch units secreted in the middle of the jungle.  This isn't good - both because it'll give his spidey senses a tweak and because I was counting on these little commando units for a little pre-invasion intel.

China:  I think the front north of Sian will become static again.  I need to reconfirgure my MLR to make it more uniform.  To the far south, it appears that the Chinese will have enough to eventually break through the small IJ stack in the forests west of Liuchow.

SoPac:  The carriers continue their withdrawal from Noumea - they are more than halfway to Hobart, where they'll refuel.  From there they probably got to Melbourne or Adelaide to attend to replenishment and any needed upgrades.

Status:  The Allies are still looking at a Sumatra invasion for late March.

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 1851
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/22/2011 9:50:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/11/43 to 1/14/43
 
India:  The Allies have taken Trincomalee and Akyab. A small amphibious force is approaching Diego Garcia, with D-Day in a day or two.  There are two IJ units of unknown strength at Diego, and I'm bringing just 100 AV in the first wave.  Allied picket destroyers east and northeast of Diego tangled with a small transport fleet, sinking a PB and an xAK or three.  I really expected Brad to try to orchestrate an ambush at Deigo since he has patrol aircraft picking up my activity.  We'll see.

China:  The Chinese have evicted most of the small IJA stack in the forest west of Liuchow, roughing up an IJ division in the process.

CenPac:  The Allies are shifting some ships around in preparation for the eventual feint in NoPac and the "real thing" vs. Iwo, Marcus and Wake Island.

SoPac:  The Allies are bombing Efate daily as part of the "hey, we're fixated on the New Hebrides" maskirovka.  Engineers are about to land at Noumea.  The carriers will arrive at Melbourne tonight.

SWPac:  The Allies have extinquished the two regiments and armored unit that were trapped at Daly Waters.  I think the Japanese have 20th Div. over at Katherine.  IJ bombers are paying a great deal of attention to Exmouth, the small Aussie armored unit at Derby, and the like.  Also, lots of SigInt of engineers and other units bound for Koepang and Soerabaja.

Sumatra:  Brad's no dummy.  He's building his defenses at Sumatra.  But he's clearly focused on the threat aimed at NW Oz and Timor.  That's good.  I feel pretty confident that the Allies will arrive at Sumatra, the Nicobars and the Andamans in such overwhelming numbers that the enemy won't be able to stop them.  9th Aussie Div. just arrived at Aden and will prep for Sabang.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1852
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/24/2011 9:40:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Place Holder (to aid in keeping notes in planning for the Invasion of Sumatra):

I.  Indian Ocean Forces
   A.  Ground Units
   B.  Transports
        1)  Troop Ships
             a)  AP - four with total capacity 12k
             b)  xAP - 5k to 8k capacity - 8 (roughly 40k capacity)
             c)  xAP - 2k to 4k capacity - 23 (roughly 65k capacity)

        2)  Supply and Cargo
             a)  xAK - 5k to 8k capacity - 69 (roughly 364k capacity)
             b)  xAK - 2k to 4k capacity - 113 (roughly 340k capacity)

        3)  Total Lift Capacity Estimated 1/17/43
             a)  AP and xAP - 117k
             b)  xAK - 700k

4) Lift Need (examples for estimating)
a) 9th Australian Division - 10 troop, 20 supply
b) 7th Indian Divsion (340 AV) - 7 troop, 8 supply
c) 5h Marines (142 AV) - 3.5 troop, 3.8 supply
d) 5th UK Bde (136 AV) - 2.8 troop, 4.3 supply
e) Present lift capacity might be sufficient to carry roughly five to seven division
equivalents (more transports are on the way from Panama Canal,
including LST and LCI).

   C.  Combat Ships

II.  Australian Forces
   A.  Ground Units
1) 6th Oz Division (Sabang)
2) 40th Div. (Padang)
3) 32nd Div. (Padang)
4) 43rd Div. (Sibolga)
5) 41 Div. (Padang)
6) 22 Mar (Padang); 21 Mar (Sibolga); 3 Mar (Sabang)
7) 112 Cav RCT (Batoi eilenden)
8) 193 Tanks (Padang)

   B.  Transports
1) Troop Ships
a) AP - 18 (total lift capacity roughly 60k)
b) xAP 9k to 10k cacapity - 2 (roughly 18k)
c) xAP - 5k to 8k capacity - 2 (roughly 12k capacity)
d) xAP - 2k to 4k capacity - 49 (roughly 140k capacity)
e) xAP - 1k capacity - 15 (roughly 15k capacity)

2) Supply and Cargo
a) xAK - 5k to 8k capacity - 49 (roughly 265k capacity)
b) xAK - 2k to 4k capacity - 42 (roughly 140k capacity)
c) xAk - 1k capacity - 13 (roughly 13k capacity)

3) Total Lift Capacity Estimated 1/17/43
a) AP and xAP - 245k
b) xAK - 415k

4) Lift Need (examples for estimating) - It seems that Oz is on track to have double the lift capacity of the Indian Ocean component, so roughly 10 to 14 division equivalents.

   C.  Combat Ships

III. Things to Do

A. In proporation to troop lift capacity, it seems that Australia has much less cargo capacity than does the Indian Ocean force. Consider shifting xAK to Oz and evaluate xAK levels in the Pacific and West Coast to see if extras can be sent to Oz.

B. The IO component is mainly responsible for Sabang and vicinity, while the Oz component is mainly responsible for Padang and vicinity. I need to re-evaluate quickly. Can the Allies really make two separate major landings close to enemy airfields. Allied carriers will cover, but only one effectively. Could the Allies invade sequentially (probably not, but evaluate). If done sequentlially, the Allies might be best served sending the Padang forc ein first, covered by carriers. That would draw a major response. The Sabang force could then go in covered by escort carriers, relying on distance and diversion to overwhelm the defenses. This will tkae some thought.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/24/2011 10:56:00 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1853
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/24/2011 10:02:06 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

Troop Ships
             1)  AP - four with total capacity 12k

only 4AP's for your most important invasion? Have you lost any or are hey bust elsewhere?
thanks

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1854
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/24/2011 10:06:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Most of the infantry divisions are in Australia, so that's where most of the troop transports are (or are heading).  One reason for this excercise is to see if I need to move any ships around to handle the highest priority troops.  There's no way I'm going to be able to carry everything, so I want to prioritize.  You'll see the info for Australia added to the post above in just a little while.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1855
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/24/2011 11:10:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Based upon early analysis of my forces and "the lay of the land" on western Sumatra, I need to decide between two plans:

1)  The current plan:  UK and Indian troops to land at Sabang, Andamans and vicinity in force while American and Oz troops land at Padang and vicinty in force.  The problem with this plan is that the two beachheads are widely separated and Padang is close to Singapore, a level nine airfield.

2)  Option B:  UK and Indian troops do the same thing (Sabang and vinicty) while the Americans and Australians land at Sibolga and vicinity.  The Sabang troops could then move east along the north coast, while the Am/Aussies could cross the island directly to the base (Tandjo-something) on the north coast.  Both contingents would be in supporting range of each other, and dropping roughly ten divisions in such a confined area would be certain to overwhelm the defenses.  Moreover, these beachheads are closer together, allowing mutual support by Allied carriers, and the closest enemy airbases are level fives.

If I adopt the second plan, and if the Allies succeed in taking all of western (true map) Sumatra, that would place the Allies firmly in control of at least five bases that can be built large, and which are in close proximity to the Malay Peninsula.  Thus, the Allies would then be a threat to invade there or to invade someplace in eastern Sumatra, like Padang.

I'm not certain which way I'm going to go, yet.  I'm leaning towards the latter, but I need to make some quick decisions.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1856
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/24/2011 11:32:22 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Is there anything in southern Sumatra (map southern) that you need? If not I vote plan B. You can bomb Palembang to ashes for example, without taking it. One question to ask is "what's next if the invasion succeeds?" How and where you exploit success may answer the question for you.

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1857
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/25/2011 12:32:36 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Hi Canoerebel,

I can't comment on a recommended course of action, as I am also reading your opponent's AAR.  Anyways, glad things are moving forward in your game and keep up the good work.

_____________________________


(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 1858
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/27/2011 8:51:14 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Be careful of having too big a force in Sumatra, I agree hit him with a big stick but dont get caught concentrating too many of your effective LCU on the island.




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Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1859
RE: Bid Thee Return - 6/27/2011 8:58:01 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Hi Canoerebel,

I can't comment on a recommended course of action, as I am also reading your opponent's AAR.  Anyways, glad things are moving forward in your game and keep up the good work.

Wot!

Comments on how to take St Petersburg on turn 2?

_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1860
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