Q-Ball
Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
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I am re-starting with Canoe after a hiatus; and it will be slow-going for the most part anyway; I can't really play at work anymore, and the family comes first at home. I have a single game going at WITE, but 5 turns a week seems like progress on that game. Still, we continue:
I won't update regularly, but I see Dan posted, so an update on where things are from the Japanese perspective:
Imperial Japanese Navy:
The Allies have really only lost BBs in the opening week of the war (I sank PoW and Repulse, and pretty sure I got 6 of the 8 at Pearl). Other than that, just 1 CA, 1 modern USN CL, and some DDs. Pretty slim. There really hasn't been much in terms of naval battles.
On the flip side, my losses are nearly nothing. I have lost 3 CLs, and I probably have more DDs than I started the war with.
Kido Butai's air losses are light, so the pilot quality is still very good.
MUSASHI and YAMATO have joined the fleet; TAIHO will be completed in 40 days, roughly first week of February 1943, and 2 UNRYUS will follow 60-90 days after. I will probably seek a big CV battle in the near-term. The reality is that any way you slice it, I'm dead-meat in the long-run, but I would like to take some CVs out with me.
IJN basically is intact
Imperial Japanese Army:
The same cannot be said for the Army. I was pretty sloppy getting out of India, that was my big mistake, and the price I paid was huge losses in the IJA.
I have basically lost the equivalent of 5 divisions. Remnants are kicking around India and won't die, inconveniently. I pulled fragments of everything, but not much I can do while pieces roam the Indian countryside. One division was killed entirely, though, and is now re-building on Tinian.
I pulled some troops, and I am now re-deploying everyone defensively. I still have considerable resources, since I have pulled several divisions from Manchuria.
I have a problem though in terms of enough ground troops. I probably don't have tons of time to pull it together, so really need to get cracking.
AIRPOWER:
We are also in great shape here; other than some air combat in India, there really hasn't been much. As a result, my pools are bursting with pilots and planes. I would WELCOME an opportunity to trade blows with Allied air.
The IJAAF is standardizing on the TOJO fighter (not the 40mm version), and the Helen IIa, the one with ARMOR. All IJAAF bomber units are training on LOW-N skills; set to 1000ft, I expect those Helens to wrech havoc on transports. Or bounce bombs off BBs and get chewed to bits by flak, one or the other.
Of course, we have tons of BETTYs. The pilots in my BETTY units are elite; we have lost hardly ANY in combat.
Our airforces, like our Navy, are pretty fresh.
Allied Intentions:
Not really sure what Dan is up to; quick rundown of the possibilities, and preparations.
I know his Carriers are currently in, or close to, the Indian Ocean, and I suspect they have been there since I landed in India:
SE ASIA: Dan had great success rolling through Burma vs. Miller, and may try it again. This time, we have a House Rule vs. using Restricted Units, so he will have to buy the Indian Army. Chinese Can't be used, aside from those NCAC units.
The Indian Army took some lumps during the invasion, and it will be awhile before being up to full-strength.
I don't have the ground troops, though, to defend Burma rock-solid. I'm not going to try.
Thailand offers much better terrain, and you can't get outflanked as badly like you can in Burma. Moulmein and Chaing Mai are chokepoints, plus I can use the RTA, which is a bonus. (Sorta). We are going to mount a flimsy defense of Burma, but Thailand is the real defense line. Even then, he can land on the Isthmus of Kra anytime after mid-1943 and unhinge that defense. So it goes.
Overall risk is MEDIUM: I think the UK and Indian Armies need time to rebuild, as they suffered high losses in India. That is counterbalanced, perhaps, by the presence of US ARMY troops in India.
SUMATRA/JAVA:
This area has a high probability of attack. I know Dan likes the "Home Run" and Sumatra or Java would be swinging for the fences. Especially Sumatra, which has all the Oil.
Sumatra has to be priority #1, simply because that's where the FUEL is, and without FUEL, the Empire withers and dies. Padang, Benkolen, Sabang, and Oosthaven are the likely landing points, so they have gotten attention from fort diggers and the like. I already have a string of large airbases around Palembang, with an Air HQ.
Java is less-well fortified, though has a couple divisions. Java's position is slightly less strategic than Sumatra, but it's getting attention as well.
I have a seaplane base on the Cocos Is, and a string of pickets West of Sumatra and Java, keeping an eye on things.
Overall risk is HIGH; I was scared to death of a landing at Padang or Benkolen in Fall of 1942, which would have trapped the entire IJA in India (!), so I started putting units there at that point. I still think high-risk here.
SOUTHERN DEI:
This is also a likely spot to attack; it's less dangerous to me than Sumatra or Java, but nonethless big trouble if the Allies get established. I used this route vs. Cuttlefish, and it worked well.
The Allies recently landed and took Exmouth. I didn't have a large garrison there, and I don't all along the Australian coast; it's kind of a trap for the Japanese, and I can't afford to have more troops cut-off where they can't do any good.
TIMOR has a large garrision, a Division-plus. I am building a string of bases at Waingapu, Den Passar, Roti, etc. I also have 6000 troops on HORN ISLAND, well-dug in, to put a stopper on the Torres Strait.
I also have a division at Darwin; that will be pulled, and redeployed to cover some of these bases.
Risk here is HIGH, on par with Sumatra/Java. I know he is moving in Australia, and the US Navy is about. This is a problem area.
New Guinea/Solomons:
I would be surprised if Dan attacked here.
I have a Division at Port Moresby, plus base troops around Lae, with several airfields built there. This cluster is really there to watch the Torres Strait, not necessarily New Guinea, but it serves a dual purpose.
I have another AIR HQ, plus an airbase cluster, at Lunga/Tassafaronga/Tulagi, which are all large airbases.
TRUK has a division in reserve; this unit I just used to squash an Allied landing at Wake that went badly for Dan.
I still occupy Noumea, but only have 2,000 troops there. LUGANVILLE will be evacuated as soon as Noumea falls. I have no interest in defending the New Hebrides; they just stick out there, too easy to cut-off.
Risk in this area is LOW; I think Dan would be doing me a favor coming through the Solomons. I plan to not put much there other than base forces and construction troops.
CENTRAL PACIFIC:
Not sure what that Wake Invasion was; I think it was diversionary, since his Carriers were NOT in support of it. It did work, in that KB was NOT off the Australian coast when he invaded Exmouth.
At any rate, stacking lots of troops in all those ATOLLS isn't really a good idea. If the Allies truly want it, they can bring BBs and Airpower and blast whatever is on the rock to bits, and take it. No point wasting units. Still, each ATOLL gets a Nav Gd and a Base Force, to make him fight for it.
The big commitment is in the Mariannas. I am already putting at least a Division on every island, and enough shovels to really make them nasty. I will wait on using mines, but later one we will also dump mines everywhere. I don't get alot, but I haven't used ANY, so the pool keeps growing.
If Dan moves in the Cent Pac, I think he will nibble on the edges, then go for the Mariannas. As long as the IJN is intact, I don't see a major move in this area.
Risk here is LOW-MEDIUM; I don't think he is committed to it really that little diversion. But I can't blow it off completely, and I am not in the Mariannas.
NORTHERN PACIFIC:
This area has concerned me somewhat. I have invested alot of troops to secure it, as well as construction and air assets.
It's certainly secure at the moment, because it's winter. No chance of landing before March 1943.
Landing here triggers a pile of reinforcements for the Japanese, so I am counting on using those to counter an invasion.
Overall Risk here is MEDIUM, although it's NIL for 3 more months.
< Message edited by Q-Ball -- 5/23/2011 11:25:03 PM >
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RE: Illinois Yankee in Showa Court (Q-Ball v Canoe) - 
That is the question. 
I won't comment much as I am commenting on Canoe's AAR but I will be reading.
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