Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

Dec 1940 attack would have been interesting. It would give IJA/IJN 5 months to prepare... But what was the readiness of Japanese military in Dec 1940? One alternative history option is to have Japan to decide to attack after German success in West 1940 followed by US Two Ocean Navy Act. They would been close to each other and Japan viewed latter as very serious indeed.

Quick wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-Ocean_Navy_Act

These two things might have been enough to convince Japan to try surprise attack IF they would have same leadership as in later 1941... Question is, were they capable for PH in Dec 1940?

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ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

Dec 1940 attack would have been interesting. It would give IJA/IJN 5 months to prepare... But what was the readiness of Japanese military in Dec 1940? One alternative history option is to have Japan to decide to attack after German success in West 1940 followed by US Two Ocean Navy Act. They would been close to each other and Japan viewed latter as very serious indeed.

Quick wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-Ocean_Navy_Act

These two things might have been enough to convince Japan to try surprise attack IF they would have same leadership as in later 1941... Question is, were they capable for PH in Dec 1940?

Technical effectiveness of 7 Dec 1941 Pearl Harbor attack was only made possible following Japanese study of British November 1940 Taranto operation. So that is another real world reason (amongst many others) why all these early war Japanese proponents are merely talking pie in the sky. Given the "doctored" circumstances, of course any country can go to war earlier, but to then postulate that the later historical capabilities (both in doctrine/training and materiel) would still apply to an earlier timeframe is fantasy.

Alfred

Alfred

"To meaningless French Idealism, Liberty, Fraternity and Equality...we answer with German Realism, Infantry, Cavalry and Artillery" -Prince von Bülov, 1870-

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

Question is, were they capable for PH in Dec 1940?

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ORIGINAL: flipperwasirish

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

Question is, were they capable for PH in Dec 1940?

Well, of you're using Wiki to support a particular case anything is possible. Reailty is not a chance, they needed Taranto (for torps) and the USSR to be involved with Germany. Without the later I can't see it happening.

"To meaningless French Idealism, Liberty, Fraternity and Equality...we answer with German Realism, Infantry, Cavalry and Artillery" -Prince von Bülov, 1870-

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar
Dec 1940 attack would have been interesting. It would give IJA/IJN 5 months to prepare... But what was the readiness of Japanese military in Dec 1940? One alternative history option is to have Japan to decide to attack after German success in West 1940 followed by US Two Ocean Navy Act. They would been close to each other and Japan viewed latter as very serious indeed.

Quick wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-Ocean_Navy_Act

These two things might have been enough to convince Japan to try surprise attack IF they would have same leadership as in later 1941... Question is, were they capable for PH in Dec 1940?

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ORIGINAL: JWE

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar
Dec 1940 attack would have been interesting. It would give IJA/IJN 5 months to prepare... But what was the readiness of Japanese military in Dec 1940? One alternative history option is to have Japan to decide to attack after German success in West 1940 followed by US Two Ocean Navy Act. They would been close to each other and Japan viewed latter as very serious indeed.

Quick wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-Ocean_Navy_Act

These two things might have been enough to convince Japan to try surprise attack IF they would have same leadership as in later 1941... Question is, were they capable for PH in Dec 1940?

Well, there was no Shokaku, no Zuikaku, the additional airgroups authorized in the 1937 plan were not even completely formed, much less trained. There was no Yamato, and it took Japan 7 months to implement Fleet mobilization and auxiliary conversion. Given the daily time-line of reality, the IJN was not ready for operations until 08/41, and then, barely. And that was just the IJN. In 1940, the IJA was still trying to come to grips with Nomonhan, in its peculiar, arrogant fashion; nan-deska!

Believe that Japanese preparations for war went as fast as possible, on an irl basis, given the irl facts of the time - intensified from the day of the Nazi/Soviet pact, and maximized once the shooting started in Poland. Given the lead times required, there really isn't any way that serious operations could be pursued prior to summer 1941. One would have to move the invasion and defeat of France back to 1939 in order to anticipate japanese operational readiness in late 1940, given the physical constraints on mobilization/readiness timing.

As to PH, the IJN did not have the CVs, nor the planes, nor the oilers, in 1940. Neither did it have its 'qualitative' battle-line ships to oppose the US battle fleet in the event the strike failed. It would have been an opportunistic risk of an insane degree and gone against every grain of doctrine that the IJN spent decades developing.

So, don't think it was possible for Japan to do a nasty in 1940. But one can never get a worm into the brain of someone like Tojo, or Ogaki, so there's always the possibility of highly irrational behavior.

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ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Making an alternate history scenario in the editor does not require "justification". One persons perfectly "plausible" scenario might be another person's "fantasy" - but we should not require everyone to agree. When I made my "Cautionaries" scenario, I did what I thought made sense. I did write down my assumptions - but I did not require or expect agreement, I created the scenario for the enjoyment of those who chose to play it!

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ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

quote:

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Making an alternate history scenario in the editor does not require "justification". One persons perfectly "plausible" scenario might be another person's "fantasy" - but we should not require everyone to agree. When I made my "Cautionaries" scenario, I did what I thought made sense. I did write down my assumptions - but I did not require or expect agreement, I created the scenario for the enjoyment of those who chose to play it!

But "impossible" is still "impossible". Unless you want to assume that Japan was sitting around since 1939 with with 4,000,000 of it's 6,000,000 tons of merchant shipping swinging at anchor on the off chance that the military MIGHT decide to go to war. At which point the question is moot, because Japan's economy has already collapsed. Even "fantasy" needs to have a degree of "plausibility".

"To meaningless French Idealism, Liberty, Fraternity and Equality...we answer with German Realism, Infantry, Cavalry and Artillery" -Prince von Bülov, 1870-

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ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

Even "fantasy" needs to have a degree of "plausibility".

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ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Like "Star Trek" is plausible??? ... warp 7 anyone ???

As to plausible alternative history I think Japan WAS moving as a result of what happened in June 1940 ... but their time table was what is was ... could they have moved faster? Well they did not, but they can in an alternate history scenario!!! The editor awaits your pleasure!

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ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

As a matter of fact Joe, yes. "Star Trek" begins and ends as a fantasy of the far future..., and as no one can know what the situation will be at the start of the 23rd Century, within it's boundries, it's plausible.

Japan's situation at the beginning of Summer in 1940 when the Fall of Western Europe suddenly opened up new possibilities IS known and available in history. NOBODY (not even Hitler) expected France to collapse that quickly; so it wasn't an event that could be planned for, only reacted to. To have the Japanese sitting around prepared to take advantage of it immediately isn't "alternate history", it's "alternate reality".

It makes a much more plausible scenario with the Fall of France as the beginning of preparations for a war, and November/December as the kick off date. Even then the Japs are still going to be facing the great unknown of how the Soviets might react.

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ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

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ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

Even "fantasy" needs to have a degree of "plausibility".

Like "Star Trek" is plausible??? ... warp 7 anyone ???

As to plausible alternative history I think Japan WAS moving as a result of what happened in June 1940 ... but their time table was what is was ... could they have moved faster? Well they did not, but they can in an alternate history scenario!!! The editor awaits your pleasure!

"To meaningless French Idealism, Liberty, Fraternity and Equality...we answer with German Realism, Infantry, Cavalry and Artillery" -Prince von Bülov, 1870-

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ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Making an alternate history scenario in the editor does not require "justification". One persons perfectly "plausible" scenario might be another person's "fantasy" - but we should not require everyone to agree. When I made my "Cautionaries" scenario, I did what I thought made sense. I did write down my assumptions - but I did not require or expect agreement, I created the scenario for the enjoyment of those who chose to play it!

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ORIGINAL: guctony

quote:

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Making an alternate history scenario in the editor does not require "justification". One persons perfectly "plausible" scenario might be another person's "fantasy" - but we should not require everyone to agree. When I made my "Cautionaries" scenario, I did what I thought made sense. I did write down my assumptions - but I did not require or expect agreement, I created the scenario for the enjoyment of those who chose to play it!

You are right sir.

But I have to confess that my knowledge to that specisific area is limited. This way I now have broad sense of what can be a more historical mod.

I now consider a 1940 june attack much more likely. Probably omiting Pearl suprise attack. Probably a limited offensive aiming DEI bypassing Philipines directing singapure and hong kong, Once the areas secured japan will look for decisive battle with USA.

Another feasible concept is 1942 june attack. Assuming Japans accept China retreat and free alot of land unit. Which can be used to attack Pearl direcly.

1942 mod will be a direct assult to pearl from Marshall islands.

"To meaningless French Idealism, Liberty, Fraternity and Equality...we answer with German Realism, Infantry, Cavalry and Artillery" -Prince von Bülov, 1870-

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ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

I think mike scholl 1 meant also Star Treck has to follow an internal logic and so should every "fantasy scenario" wich is very true. Also realism is gradual, one does not simply have it or not.

"To meaningless French Idealism, Liberty, Fraternity and Equality...we answer with German Realism, Infantry, Cavalry and Artillery" -Prince von Bülov, 1870-

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ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony

quote:

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Making an alternate history scenario in the editor does not require "justification". One persons perfectly "plausible" scenario might be another person's "fantasy" - but we should not require everyone to agree. When I made my "Cautionaries" scenario, I did what I thought made sense. I did write down my assumptions - but I did not require or expect agreement, I created the scenario for the enjoyment of those who chose to play it!

You are right sir.

But I have to confess that my knowledge to that specisific area is limited. This way I now have broad sense of what can be a more historical mod.

I now consider a 1940 june attack much more likely. Probably omiting Pearl suprise attack. Probably a limited offensive aiming DEI bypassing Philipines directing singapure and hong kong, Once the areas secured japan will look for decisive battle with USA.

Another feasible concept is 1942 june attack. Assuming Japans accept China retreat and free alot of land unit. Which can be used to attack Pearl direcly.

1942 mod will be a direct assult to pearl from Marshall islands.

IJA vetoed any idea of Hawaiian invasion, because Japan lacked shipping to even sustain garrison and population there, much less to do amphibious invasion.

So, I suggest following alternative history:

In summer 1942, Germany has forced UK & USSR to capitulate, neither are fully occupied but are out of the war for now. USA is at war with Germany & Italy and is actively engaged against German, Italian and Vichy France forces in North Africa (Operation Torch enhanced) and waging naval war against Germany. Two Ocean Naval Act is in full swing, same with US Army and AF buildup. US CVs are mostly committed supporting operations in North Africa and making life difficult to Germany from bases like Iceland & Azores.

With ceasefire, UK was forced to cede Hongkong, Burma, Malaya & Singapore to Japan, including all merchant vessels over 1500grt it had in it's Asian and Indian Ocean ports. This is because of secret pact between Japan & Germany for Japan to enter the war and force USA to two-front war. Australia & New Zealand are still at war with Germany, Canada too. Vichy France is de facto ally of Japan. DEI is still neutral by guarantee of USA. War in China still grinds as stalemate, but now Japan will be able to bring in majority of troops garrisoned in Manchuria.

How does this sound? Would give lot of extra shipping for Japan. They also could capture lot more from DEI (historically they did sink lot of shipping they could have just captured).

This would lead to scenario where India is out of if and Japanese west flank is totally secure. Japan would need to invade & secure DEI, force Australia & NZ out of war and tackle with USA. US would have ANZAC Pact in effect and has stationed sizable ground, air and naval forces in Australia, NZ and several islands, including Free French New Caledonia.

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ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

There are a lot of good ideas on this thread. One thing that interests me is the Japanese taking advantage of the fall of France. The Japanese would not have been fully prepared as people have noted, and it's certainly not in their nature to do something without a lot of advance discussion, but why not hit the DEI and UK possessions in July 1940 from a more-or-less standing start when the UK and Netherlands had very little there? It would be a race against time. Also, I'd assume the U.S. would declare war after the election, say November or December 1940. You'd also have to assume a quiet Russia.

In such a scenario, U.S. Army and Marine ground and air reinforcements could be marginally moved up from stock dates, but not USN (other than what historically came from the Atlantic). Also, presumably Oz and NZ troops would remain in theater, but as an offset there's be fewer UK forces sent East.

Cheers,
CC