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RE: Soviet Offensive Crisis Point

 
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RE: Soviet Offensive Crisis Point - 9/1/2011 11:50:44 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		The losses screen:

Germans are approaching 3 million to the Soviets approaching 8 million. Aircraft have 5000 German against 40,000 Soviet.

I expect German losses to really start increasing now that I'm in 1944. The Soviet Steamroller will be much tougher to stop this year!




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Production Jan 1944 - 9/1/2011 11:59:02 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		And finally some production figures.

plenty of panzers available - pools stocked with PzIVHs, Panthers, Tigers, StGs - you name it. The only shortage is in tank destroyers. I've set the majority of infantry divisions to 60%-70% across the front since early 1943 and have managed to maintain some small pools of rifle squads without having to disband too many units. That's with having about 100, 000+ men in fortified units across the front as well. Not bad.

I was going to disband the LW field and some security divisions, but haven't . The Security divisions have been kept busy chasing down partisans, and the LW field divisions have proven quite capable. I probably could afford to disband some RR repair units, but each time that thought crosses my mind, the partisans tear up lots of rail and I need them.

As the Luftwaffe is pulled west, I can probably afford to disband some airbases and Luftwaffe HQs in 1944. Same with Rumanians who remain next to useless. Hungarians do pretty well, especially when given some German "corsets".




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Frontline Jan 44 - 9/2/2011 12:18:25 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		And here is the frontline in Jan 44. Soviets maintain pressure on AGN with Rifle Corps based attacks - enough to keep the pressure on, but not going to breakthrough. AGC's front develops a crisis from the new broad front attacks against 4th Army - no breakthrough, but no adequate reserves either. This is going to be a problem! The major Soviet thrust, right through 17th Army's AO and tearing a gap between AGB and AGA, remains the major threat.




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Post #: 363
RE: AGN Jan 44 - 9/2/2011 3:09:18 AM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		While no major breakthroughs occured in AGN's AO, the first major operational withdrawal takes place.

In front of Leningrad, the Soviets continue to pound through the "Volkov Line" - taking one hex, but failing twice to take another. Still grinding forward at a terrible price.

The persistent attacks at the boundary of 16th Army and 9th Army continue to make slow forward progress, despite the two PzKps trying to hold them back. The one Tank Corps observed in the area was routed back in the counter attack, but nothing the Germans have will move back the advancing Rifle Corps - so that was never tried.

What this attack does, combined with increasing pressure on AGC, is force 9th Army to abandon some 20 miles of fortified terrain to the Soviets without a fight - something I've really resisted doing! Have no choice here. While I think I can contain the attacks in AGN's area, I'm not as confident in AGC's area now that 4th Army is taking it on the chin.

With the Soviet main attack still moving forward towards the Dniepr in the south, any assistance going toward AGC will have to come from AGN - so we're going to start to pull back toward Rzhev.






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RE: AGC Jan 44 - 9/2/2011 3:28:02 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Here's where another crisis looms. While 3rd Pz Armee has been able to hold off - or at least contain - the pounding the Soviets have thrown against it, the massive 60 mile wide offensive against 4th Army is a major concern. While the Soviets have not broken through, the Rifle Corps have forced 4th Army out of its best defensive positions and are poised to shatter the line.

Behind the Rifle Corps are some armor units - not sure exactly what, but it looks to be a major effort here, and 4th Army only has on PG Div, moved from XL PzKps, as a reserve. Not good is an understatement.

The plan is to start pulling back towards the Bryansk-Vyzma Line which isn't exactly ready. Besides the line not being ready, this much of a withdrawal will jeapordize Orel and points south still being held in strength by AGB.

Not sure there is much I can do here other than pull back and hope for the best. I'll bring some panzers down from AGN, and I have 18 Pz coming up from near Orel.

Bottom line - this ain't going to be pretty....




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Post #: 365
RE: To the Dniepr, Jan 44 - 9/2/2011 3:43:04 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Here is where it remains "In Doubt"...screen shot showing major combats, but after the German moves.

The Soviets muscled forward, pretty much right through XXXXVI PzKps and remaining infantry of 17th Army, isolating GD and 1Pz Div in the process. Supporting attacks along 1st Pz Armee's eastern flank made progress, but did not break through.

The German response pushed the Soviets back, routing 5 Tank Corps in the process and re-establishing a line. The cost, however is high. XIV PzKps is brought down from north of Kharkov to hold the shoulder, as LVI PzKps is badly fatigued and being hard pressed.

2nd Hun Army and 4th Pz Armee are basically intermixed from north of Belgorod to near the Dniepr Bend - with the predominate panzer concentration south of Kharkov.

17th Army and 1st Pz Armee are just as intermixed at the point of Soviet penetration, with all the infantry of both armies at the breaking point. The panzers are likewise very, very fatigued.

With pressure building, 1st Pz Armee begins pulling back its infantry on its eastern flank - this will jeapordize the extreme southern portion of the line, and risk a Soviet breakthrough towards the Crimea. But it can not be helped - at best we'll keep the Soviets east of the Dneipr - all else is "negotiable"

I just hope his armor is just as fatigued as the panzers are - if he has fresh armor uncommitted, he'll achieve his breakthrough.....






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Post #: 366
RE: AGN, Jan 44 - 9/3/2011 8:12:34 PM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Turn 135; Jan 13, 1944......blizzard

Appears we drew a little respite from Soviet Hordes for the turn - not nearly as much offensive activity across the front. And that's a good thing as the German army is pretty well fatigued and depleted right now.

In AGN's area of operations, Soviets continue to slowly hammer their way closer to Leningrad through 18th Army's positions, but casualties are heavy, with at least a 2-1 loss ratio in our favor. Still ground is gained, and we fallback to the next position, 10 miles to the rear. One which is not nearly as well fortified as the previous one....

Soviet pressure against AGN remains strongest near the boundary of 16th and 9th Armies - some German units are pushed back, but lost ground is retaken by a swift counterattack by XXXIX PzKps against a Rifle Corps. The retaken ground is only held by weak trip-wire units; depleted divisions intended to slow any major attack down, not stop it.

9th Army continues its slow withdrawal from the gates of Moscow. No real direct pressure yet, but with heavy pressure to the north and south, there is no alternative.

With alot of luck, AGN can stall the Soviets long enough east of the Lake Ilmen - Velikie Luki Line until spring - AND keep the Soviets from assalting Leningrad. Tough odds....




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RE: AGN, Jan 44 - 9/3/2011 8:26:59 PM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Of all the sectors of the front, pressure remained high against AGC. 3rd Pz Armee continues to take a pounding from massed Rifle Corps attacks, but the Soviets are paying a fearful price. Sadly, I think they can afford that price.

4th Army continues to contain, albeit barely, the Soviet Rifle Corps attacks south of Kaluga. Surprisingly, no Soviet armor was sent in to break the door wide open. This has allowed me to bring up the Feldherrnhalle PG Div to 4th Army's sector, and 11st SS PG is also enroute - all assuming the Soviets will unleash the tanks in short order. I will probably activate 3rd SS PzKps and bring Totenkopf down if the Soviets attempt to exploit.

In the mean time, we'll continue to fallback slowly as long as we can, while holding on to Orel to the south - had to abandon Kaluga which was taken just prior to the 41 blizzard and held throughout - it is a bitter blow to the OKH morale (me).




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RE: to the Dniepr, Jan 44 - 9/3/2011 8:48:31 PM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		South of Kharkov, the Soviet pressure relaxed quite a bit. They MUST be tired too - can hope, right?

While the pressure on 1st Pz Armee was maintained, it was also contained, and no major thrust was launched toward the Dneipr. LVII and XXXXVI PzKps took advantage of this "lull" and attacked into the northern portion of the Soviet salient, forcing 4xTk, Mech and Cav Corps to withdraw after losing over 350 tanks to the German's 75 or so. Hopefully that attack will keep them just a bit off balance.

While this realitively small victory may help disrupt the overall Soviet timetable, the overall German situation remains critical. Although I pulled off 11PZ and 13PZ to refit, the Panzerwaffe is still badly in need of a rest - and remains the only viable force capable of either defending or counterattacking effectively. German infantry in the Soviet attack zone is in bad shape - few units remain over 10,000 effectives and some are closer to 5,000 - with experience dwindling across all units.

Still, the Soviets haven't reached the Dniepr yet, and three still strong PzKps bar the most direct route. Worse case scenario is that the Soviets open up a major offensive north of Kharkov. As long as his main thrust is concentrated east of the Dneipr bend, there is a chance the panzers can still parry the blows and keep him off balance.

Unfortunately, spring is still a long way away.....




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RE: Push to Leningrad, Jan 44 - 9/19/2011 5:19:12 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Turn 136; Jan 20, 1944....Blizzard

Soviets continue their heavy pressure - its at the breaking point in some areas.

18th Army continues to attempt to hold the Volkov Line as best it can. Despite four Soviet attacks, only one is successful. Maybe it is a sign they are becoming fatigued? One can hope.




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RE: A slow withdrawal, Jan 44 - 9/19/2011 5:26:29 AM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Soviet pressure keeps pounding the boundary between 16th and 9th Armies, despite having both XXXIX and LVII PzKps in the area. Against the stacked Rifle Corps, its just not enough. Soviet losses are heavy, but they continue to advance. We've got to hold here to allow the 9th Army to pull back from the gates of Moscow - a slow process. With heavy pressure against 4th Army across from Tula - the Soviets could potentially try a major encirclement - of both 9th Army and 3rd Pz Armee. It would be a longshot, but feasible if I try and hold too far east. Will try and ensure that doesn't happen.

In the meantime, we'll just try and contain this attempt to breakthrough between the two German armies.

< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 9/19/2011 5:28:28 AM >

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Post #: 371
RE: A slow withdrawal, Jan 44 - 9/19/2011 5:28:47 AM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Soviet pressure keeps pounding the boundary between 16th and 9th Armies, despite having both XXXIX and LVII PzKps in the area. Against the stacked Rifle Corps, its just not enough. Soviet losses are heavy, but they continue to advance. We've got to hold here to allow the 9th Army to pull back from the gates of Moscow - a slow process. With heavy pressure against 4th Army across from Tula - the Soviets could potentially try a major encirclement - of both 9th Army and 3rd Pz Armee. It would be a longshot, but feasible if I try and hold too far east. Will try and ensure that doesn't happen.

In the meantime, we'll just try and contain this attempt to breakthrough between the two German armies.




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< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 9/19/2011 5:29:35 AM >

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RE: AGC Crisis, Jan 44 - 9/19/2011 5:39:06 AM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		While 3rd Pz Armee continues to be pressured by massed Rifle Corps attacks, the 4th Army's frontline is broken open by massed attacks. This is the breakthrough the Soviets have been hoping for against AGC - and this will definately hasten 3rd Pz Armee's withdrawal!!





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RE: AGC Crisis, Jan 44 - 9/19/2011 5:51:07 AM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		With no real infantry reserves to plug the gap, and no massed panzers available to readily counter attack, 4th Army has no choice but to give ground and delay the Soviets until panzers can be massed. To that effect, III SS PzKps is activated and begins to form with FH and 11 SS PG, SS Totenkopf brought down from 3rd Pz Armee and 18th Pz up from behind 2nd Army. XL PzKps with 5th and 19th Pz Divs is pulled out of the line from west of Kaluga, protects 3rd Pz Armee's southern flank, and prepares to counter attack. To the south of the breakthrough, III PzKps is brought up from 6th Army to 2nd Army - only the 4th, 16th, and 17th Pz Divs are in need of replacements, and won't pack too much of a punch.

Still, its the best we can do right now - the font of 3rd Pz and 4th Army is now "fluid" - as retreating has prevented a solid front line, but rather a series of fortified locales to slow the Soviets while the bulk of the infantry pulls west.

We'll see how well that works....





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RE: 1st Pz Armee at the breaking point, Jan 44 - 9/19/2011 5:58:41 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Still no Soviet activity from Orel to south of Kharkov - not what I expected.

South of Kharkov, things remain "in doubt". 4th Pz Armee has two PzKps fully engaged here now to stem the Soviet attack's westerly direction - along with 1st Pz Armee's XXXXVI PzKps. The remainder of 1st Pz Armee slowly pulls back in the south - under heavy pressure.

While the panzer formations are tired, they are not in bad overall shape. The infantry however, is another story. They are badly attritted, fatigued and are about ready to break. Very few remain defensive capbably without support. Offensively capable, very, very few...

I'm counting on that the Soviets are as badly fatigued as the Germans - at risk is a breakthrough south to the Sea of Azov or opening up the attacks to take Kharkov.

We'll see...




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RE: 1st Pz Armee at the breaking point, Jan 44 - 9/27/2011 1:26:26 PM   
M60A3TTS


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Joined: 5/13/2011
Status: offline 		It seems like this game has slowed down a bit.  I hope you keep it going, it's my favorite AAR given all the effort that you've put into it.   

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RE: 1st Pz Armee at the breaking point, Jan 44 - 9/27/2011 4:34:59 PM   
AZKGungHo


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Status: offline 		This is an AWESOME AAR - please keep it going if you can!!


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RE: 1st Pz Armee at the breaking point, Jan 44 - 10/9/2011 4:02:24 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Turn 141; Feb 24, 1944....Blizzard

Game has been progressing slowly....AAR even slower. Feb has been a steady series of attacks against AGC and AG-A in the south. Soviets continue to grind toward Leningrad - slowly, but steadily.

The greatest crisis has been against AGC - Both 3rd Pz Armee and 4th Army have been reinforced, but are still bordering on collapse.

Attacks against AG-B south of Kharkov have slackened, with the emphasis shifting south against AG-A towards the Sea of Azov.

Overall, we pray for mud. In the meantime we delay in AGC and hold east of the Dniepr Bend in the south.




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Post #: 378
RE: 18th Army - 10/9/2011 4:07:15 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		18th Army continues to defend against massed Rifle Corps west of the Volkov River. The Soviet progress is slow, but painfully steady. One or two hexes a turn will be enough to liberate Leningrad before summer. Not much can be done, just defend and exact a 3-1 price in loss for each hex gained.




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RE: 16th and 9th Army - 10/9/2011 4:18:34 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Pressure against the boundary between 9th and 16th Army has slackened a bit in the last few weeks. I expected a more powerful push toward the Valdai Hills, but this never materialized. Apparently most of the Tank Corps have moved elsewhere - likely further south.

In any case, we've been able to delay the Soviet advance a bit better than expected, which has allowed both 9th Army and 3rd Pz Armee to defend/delay further east than anticipated - and that is a major victory at this point.

Still, 9th Army is about ready to pull out to the west in a hurry - any week now......

16th Army has been the bill payer for crisis expanding near Smolensk - it has pulled a Pz, PG and an infantry Div south in the last two weeks.




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RE: AGC - 10/9/2011 4:38:12 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		This is the current Crisis Point....

Unrelenting Soviet pressure against AGC during the "Winter Offensive" has effectively reduced both 3rd Pz Armee and 4th Army to Kampfgruppe delaying actions between Rzhev and the Bryansk Line.

In 3rd Pz Armee's area, XXXVII PzKps delays just south of Rzhev - but with only one Pz Div (7th) at the start of the turn, there's not much to hold up the massed Rifle Corps - fortunately, no Tank Corps are in the area. Near Vyazma, XL PzKps attempts somewhat of a "stand", but that will be short lived as 4th Army is rapidly deteriorating to its south

4th Army has received the brunt of the Soviet attack, and it shows. Its infantry are mere shells. III SS PzKps attempts to hold the northern end of the Bryansk Line, but between them and 3rd Pz Armee, there isn't really much of anything. VII Korps is at best division strength - delaying some 50 miles north of Yelna. The only hope hear is that the Bryansk Line offers some defense and the Soviets move NW instead of continuing directly west.

While the Bryansk Line may offer some respite, the Soviets have already decided to turn south while east of the Bryansk Line - presumably heading to liberate Orel. The most recent attack has isolated three divisions of IX Korps when the III PzKps counter attack failed. While 3rd Pz and 4th Army are in bad shape, the crisis may now spread to 2nd Army, thus encompassing all of AGC.

Mud is the best hope right now to stem the Soviet attack - Rzhev, Vyazma, Smolensk, Bryansk and Orel are all threatened and will likely fall if General Mud doesn't intervene.




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RE: AGC - 10/9/2011 4:50:34 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Here is the turn after the German move.

Not really alot of welcome news here. Between Vyazma and III SS PzKps there is a gap of about 50 miles that two German Korps "defend".....more actually at best, delay. The intent is to induce the Soviets to attack into this direction, narrowing their penetration between the two PzKps.

I think that may be wishful thinking actually, and he'll bull through the Bryansk Line as well.

In 2nd Army's sector, the isolated divisions of IX Korps are doomed as I'm forced to pull back the battered and fatigued III Pzkps. But the isolated divisions manage to regain supply status, which may delay the Soviet advance if he elects to isolate again, or they'll rout out. Either way, its a minor victory...

Even so, if he lunges his massed tank and mech corps SW to the south of Bryansk, this could get ugly very, very quickly. South of Orel to Kharkov, there is but one Pz Div.




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RE: AGS - 10/9/2011 4:58:08 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Further south, the pressure against Kharkov seems to have lessened, as the Soviet attacks seem to have shifted south. Perhaps the massing of the best of the German Panzer Korps have helped???

In any case, the pressure has increased against XXXXVIII PzKps as it appears the Soviets are attempting to reach the Sea of Azov an cut off the German Korps at the southern end of the line against the sea.

Attacks against the XXXXVI PzKps were limited to attacks against the delaying regiments deployed along the line.

The goal here remains keeping the Soviets east of the Dniepr at all costs. So far, that's working....but the price is high.




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RE: AGS - 10/9/2011 12:29:17 PM   
Kronolog

 

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From: Sweden
Status: offline 		It's fascinating to see how the game changes once the initiative is passed on to the the soviets.

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RE: AGS - 10/10/2011 1:53:59 PM   
olivier34

 

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Status: offline 		Great AAR, thanks to share all this with us !

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RE: AGC - 10/12/2011 12:53:17 AM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Turn 142; Mar 2, 1944.......blizzard, snow and mud in Europe

Quick update...General Mud has entered theater and is moving slowly from central Europe toward the Eastern Front....Salvation!

In the meantime, crisis deepens for AGC. Major Soviet thrust through 4th Army is too strong to be effectively counterattacked by 3rd Pz Armee's XL PzKps (2xPz, PG) and 4th Army's III SS PzKps (2xPz, 2xPG) as was the original plan. Very little stands in the way of the Soviet attack between these two PzKps. Infantry is pretty much played out. Two reinforcing infantry divisions from AGN, detrained east of Smolensk to attempt to hold Yelna at the tip of the Soviet spearhead. Both PzKps resort to mobile defense of strong panzer concentrations to delay west. Vyazma and Bryansk will fall shortly, likely in the nest two weeks. Rzhev maybe two to three weeks.

2nd Army meanwhile manages to once again regain a corridor to the trapped divisions of IX Korps with a short attack by III PzKps (3xPz) against two tank corps - then pulls back to its own mobile defense. Orel should fall within the next two weeks.

With continued pressure toward the Dniepr, AGC is pretty much on its own until the mud hits - that should halt the Soviet advance and give the Landsers a breather.




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RE: AGC Crisis mounts - 10/19/2011 2:32:56 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Turn 143; Mar 9, 1944.....Snow

Weather is NOT warming up fast enough!! While both AGN and AGA have, for the most part, likely survived the Soviet winter offensive, and retained the defensive prize - Leningrad in the north, and the Dniepr Bend in the south.

AGC has not been so fortunate. With the majority of the infantry reduced to mere shells in both 3rd Pz Armee and 4th Army, the PzKps mobile defense had been doing a fair job of delaying the Soviet drive west. Until now.....

Major Soviet thrust hits the boundary of 3rd Pz Armee and 4th Army, encircling Vyazma and much of the delaying XL PzKps. The orientation of the drive, to the West-Northwest was unexpected - I figured he was more concerned about flanking Orel to the south - and this resulted in a poor defense, which he has managed to exploit - More on this in the following screen shot.

Overall, mud HAS to arrive shortly so we can pull the panzers out to refit before the summer offensive. I plan on trading space for time for Summer '44. That's the main reason I've held as far east as I could during the winter - once mud starts to end, I hope to pull back to the Dniepr pretty quickly, using the "rested" panzers to delay west while the infantry takes up positions, which are moderately fortified. With some luck, I can forstall a major Soviet assault on the Dniepr's "Eastern Rampart" until mid summer.






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RE: Drive on Smolensk - 10/19/2011 3:00:19 AM   
IdahoNYer


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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Against AGC, I expected the main weight of the Soviet attack against the Bryansk area to flank the line of Orel-Kursk.

Instead, the Soviets shifted the thrust north of Bryansk, and headed west toward Smolensk, bypassing Vyazma. And, in the process encircled 19th Pz and 3+ infantry divisions in the Vyazma Pocket. While there is a good chance some of these forces may escape encirclement as the situation is "fluid", the trapped 5th Pz and one infantry div to the SW of Vyazma is likely doomed. III SS PzKps is stretched too thin to be an effective counter attack force, and XL PzKps is itself fighting for survival. Just to the north, near Rzhev, XXXXVII PzKps is itself dealing with a small Soviet penetration, that it might be able to contain - but certainly can't spare panzers for the crisis east of Smolensk.

Other than III SS PzKps, 4th Army's combat power is minimal. Two fairly fresh divisions off the railhead at Yelna and one refitting PG Div, and the rest are burnt out infantry divisions badly in need of rest.

2nd Army, trying to hold Orel, has succeeded in that endevor thanks to the sacrifice of the pocket to the north of Orel. Originall 3 plus xIN Div of IX Korps, two divisions have managed to fight their way out, while keeping the pocket out of isolation. However, after three weeks of fighting, III PzKps is no longer capable of supporting an extraction of the remaining division +. With the Soviets no longer having to re-isolate the pocket, they now can not only destroy its remnants, but resume the thrust to take Orel. Its loss is inevitable.

If mud comes in the next week or two, I can perhaps avoid a rout of AGC - its that close to falling completely apart. Only the arrival of General Mud can save the day!





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RE: Drive on Smolensk - 10/19/2011 4:33:44 AM   
stone10


Posts: 238
Joined: 9/20/2008
Status: offline 		Is there a screen shot of OOB?

(in reply to IdahoNYer)
Post #: 389
RE: Drive on Smolensk - 10/20/2011 2:39:14 AM   
IdahoNYer


Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
Status: offline 		Stone 10 -

last OOB I posted was Jan 6, 1944 - its the last post on page 12. I'll do another after mud brings the carnage to a brief halt.

(in reply to stone10)
Post #: 390
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