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RE: Summer 43 - 12/20/2011 3:18:14 PM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
Joined: 1/14/2007
From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		2nd Panzer launches several attacks as well.




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< Message edited by Ketza -- 12/20/2011 3:49:58 PM >

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RE: Summer 43 - 12/20/2011 3:25:28 PM   
Ketza


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From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		Here is an overview of the counter attacks. He is attacking along a broad front and the Panzer strikes are aimed at where he leaves weak spots. He cant really leave 3 corps stacks everywhere so the mobility of the Panzers will keep him guessing. In most cases a very weak LW regiment occupies the victory hex. In no cases does he retain a hex where he has a ZOC only.




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RE: Summer 43 - 12/20/2011 3:44:05 PM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
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From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		Panzer attack air losses. Huge ratios in Axis favor with GS turned off.




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RE: Summer 43 - 12/20/2011 3:47:24 PM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
Joined: 1/14/2007
From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		Final ground losses after attacks. Maintaining 4-1 more or less. More importantly hitting him where he is weak. 3rd Panzer army except for the withdrawing SS is back in reserve.

Its gonna be a long summer!




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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 2:23:22 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		Your morale and troop totals are key.

2.5 million is breaking point.

From what I am seeing seems like Russians are over powered come late 43 and breaking German army is still way to easy, 30 turns only doing 25ish attacks per turn.

1 tactic that can be used at some pt is retreating 25 to 30 hexes. The supply chain for Russians will be to long and will give your forses a break.

If your going to try and hold river line during summer 44 you got you work cut out for you. How fast is your OOB going down and is his stable, increasing or dropping?

Tracking the OOB is key, is it worth counter attacking?

Game realy seems to be missing the mark historically at this point. Russian losses during 43 were 1.5 to 2.5 million per quarter.

I think thats why the play balance goes to sht late 43, russian losses are clearly not close to historical when attacking.

The game engine is way way off and needs a major over haul.

Russian infantry is about 200% over rated.



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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 2:56:17 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
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Status: offline 		Historical losses on Eastern front.

——————German——————-Russian————Ratio

1942
1st—————280,000——————1,686,000———-6 to 1
2nd—————220,000——————1,395,000———-6.3 to 1
3rd—————383,000——————2,371,000———-6 to 1
4th—————177,000——————1,281,000———-7.2 to 1
1943
1st—————498,000——————1,908,000———3.8 to 1
2nd—————110,000——————444,000———-4 to 1
3rd—————533,000——————2,633,000———-5 to 1
4th—————381,000——————1,939,000———-5 to 1
1944
1st—————423,000——————1,859,000———-4.4 to 1
2nd—————352,000——————1,021,000———-3 to 1
3rd—————879,000——————1,771,000———-2 to 1
4th—————297,000——————1,086,000———-3.6 to 1

Its more important to track total loses over a 10 turn trend.

June 10th 1943 losses were

German 2,630,000
Russian 8,140,000

June 24th

German 2,660,000
Russian 8,256,000

German 30,000
Russian 116,000

Ration 3.8 to 1

Hows your OOB doing?

I think where the wheels come off the WitE engine is late 43 to end of war. The ratio in my game 3rd quarter of 43 are 2 to 1 tops nothing close to historical, (4/5) to 1 until 2nd quarter of 44.

Pelton






< Message edited by Pelton -- 12/23/2011 3:09:16 PM >

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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 4:18:46 PM   
Ketza


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Joined: 1/14/2007
From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		So far the OOB is stable and I have been maintaining a 4-1 loss ratio on the ground and 10-1 loss ratio in the air.

This last turn I just got back he made some massive attacks and took Kharkov out with level 4 forts in one whack. Ratios dipped a bit. My oob will be taking a hit soon as the SS starts to withdraw.

I have 3 months of pounding to go through before mud. I am fairly confident I will keep him to the east of the river line but there really is no stopping his massed guards corps.




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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 4:21:43 PM   
Ketza


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From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		The bright spot continues to be the air war. He only bombed airbases 21 times so much of the losses he incurred were from GS.




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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 4:24:02 PM   
Ketza


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Status: offline 		Battles. A few holds. I am hoping his assault forces wear down at some point but who knows

Sumy also fell to one attack.




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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 4:26:27 PM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
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Status: offline 		Kharkov. Real surprise here I thought it would hold a few turns with level 4 forts in a big city. He did hit it with 300,000 men however!




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< Message edited by Ketza -- 12/23/2011 4:28:48 PM >

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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 4:37:41 PM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		Why does he persist in these airbase attacks? His losses are horrific.



< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 12/23/2011 4:39:53 PM >

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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 5:42:59 PM   
Ketza


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Why does he persist in these airbase attacks? His losses are horrific.




Although I am not 100% sure but I think his thinking is that he takes huge losses in the air to air war and might as well pick on my airbases to kill "something".

I must point out the ratio gets skewed when I do not fly GS during his phase. It seems to not matter if I fly it or not as far as ground results go so I have chosen to hold back and use GS only when I attack. This seems to help more then wasting bombers on defense. My fighters tear him up during his phase which will hopefully keep my locally viable in the air war into 1944.

< Message edited by Ketza -- 12/23/2011 5:45:29 PM >

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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 5:47:45 PM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		He could get better results if he let his guys get experience and fly other missions forcing you to intercept. (And incurring operational/flak losses, too.)

But with the kind of losses he's taking the Red Air force will be perpetually green.

Soviet production can cover this bull headed air strategy he insists on prosecuting, sure, but it's not at all efficient.

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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 8:06:47 PM   
gingerbread


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Status: offline 		Edit: Sorry, forgot I was looking at the report from the German side where all Soviets are white.

< Message edited by gingerbread -- 12/23/2011 9:05:56 PM >

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RE: Summer 43 - 12/23/2011 11:29:56 PM   
sillyflower


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ketza

Kharkov. Real surprise here I thought it would hold a few turns with level 4 forts in a big city. He did hit it with 300,000 men however!




But he only won because you failed a die roll reducing your CV by 1/3rd and he succeeded in almost quadrupling his.

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RE: Summer 43 - 12/24/2011 4:24:03 AM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		The losses for taking out a city with a level 4 fort and attacking with 300,000 men is really a reflextion of whats wrong with the game.

Katza with these very sad lose ratio's he will never ware down. The game is not even 1/2 over and he is bleeding you dry very quickly. If the lose ratio was historical he would have to stop at some point, but because they are 1/2 of historical he can just grind you to dust.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2992194

Hes getting at least 120,000 men per turn so his OOB from here on out will only grow and your start dropping very fast.

The September 1st turn will clearly show how quickly you will break and IF his forses are growing for shrinking.

Pelton

< Message edited by Pelton -- 12/24/2011 4:29:48 AM >

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RE: Summer 43 - 1/10/2012 1:50:45 AM   
Ketza


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Status: offline 		Holiday slow down in the game but I got a turn back last night. I have to ponder the situation a bit as his relentless corps attacks are hammering away with no slowing down. He has been pounding a large section of the line since the first snows flew in fall of 1942 and the only thing slowing his relentless one hex grind forward is the mud turns. Is this good or bad? Who knows....

OOB turn 108. My strength is starting to drop a little as his continues to slowly rise. When exactly do the Soviet manpower decreases begin?

My best Generals are still running the army groups. Luckily no mishaps yet!




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RE: Summer 43 - 1/10/2012 1:53:52 AM   
Ketza


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Status: offline 		Top 35 infantry divisions. All are above 9 CV.




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RE: Summer 43 - 1/10/2012 1:55:36 AM   
Ketza


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Status: offline 		Panzer divisions




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RE: Summer 43 - 1/10/2012 2:23:32 AM   
Ketza


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From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		Part of the 3rd Panzer goals were to shake things up a bit so as to release the Finns to get back over the "morale" line. Most Finns are in the 70s morale wise and this turn a bunch of replacement Finn battalions were disbanded and several divisions rebuilt. The reorg was finished this turn with the SS divisions still covering the area until they withdraw. Local attacks were made and the lines reshuffled. The black lines are hopefully where the front will be in January 1944.

This does not seem to be a high priority area when it comes down to the final win or draw conclusion. I plan on keeping enough strength here to make progress tough for him unless he commits a lot of force.




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RE: Summer 43 - 1/10/2012 9:55:13 AM   
karonagames


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quote:

But he only won because you failed a die roll reducing your CV by 1/3rd and he succeeded in almost quadrupling his.


At this stage of the war it is more likely that the 6k guns in the attack caused enough disruption to reduce CVs by 30-50%. In my 1943 campaign tests, Axis CVs rarely doubled, I was lucky if I got a 1.5x increase out of my best generals. My tests were done when the SU could also bring several hundred aircraft to the party, this has since been restricted, but the 80 bombers in this combat would also have added to the disruption.

In my experience 5k+ guns is almost a guaranteed win for the Red Army.

At this stage of the war as a soviet I would be planning my attacks based on 75% of the face value CV due to artillery and airpower disruption. Ironically that is exactly what happened to the CV at Kharkov so it is not an unexpected result.

< Message edited by BigAnorak -- 1/10/2012 9:59:10 AM >

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RE: Summer 43 - 1/10/2012 10:50:52 AM   
Peltonx


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quote:

Holiday slow down in the game but I got a turn back last night. I have to ponder the situation a bit as his relentless corps attacks are hammering away with no slowing down. He has been pounding a large section of the line since the first snows flew in fall of 1942 and the only thing slowing his relentless one hex grind forward is the mud turns. Is this good or bad? Who knows....

OOB turn 108. My strength is starting to drop a little as his continues to slowly rise. When exactly do the Soviet manpower decreases begin?

My best Generals are still running the army groups. Luckily no mishaps yet!


His ablity to attck constantly in the summer of 1943 is a consern, because it can grind you down over time.

now is the point in the war were you really need to monitar your lose ratio based not only on the combat results, but based on the lose tables per turn. Say 5 turn trends then compare to your OOB over 5 turns.

This will give you a clear picture of how long its taking him to grind you down.

You do not want to win allot of battles and grind "yourself to death". At some point there is no pay-off to this and it only helps him.

You have earned allot of space you have to start trading that for time at some point.

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RE: Summer 43 - 1/10/2012 4:30:03 PM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
Joined: 1/14/2007
From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		Quick numbers

German infantry 17 June 3877905
08 July 3859996
-17909

Actually considering his attacks not to bad.

German Guns 17 June 37385
08 July 36437
-948

German Armor 17 June 6227
08 July 6576
+343

LW 17 June 2682
08 July 2752
+70

I know I will lose some ground with the withdrawals but these numbers are actually a morale builder.

< Message edited by Ketza -- 1/10/2012 4:31:05 PM >

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RE: Summer 43 - 1/10/2012 4:36:12 PM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
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From: Columbia, Maryland
Status: offline 		As far as the Soviets:

His infantry grew by 6689 so his losses are pretty much on par with his replacements.

His armor shrunk by 128.

His guns grew by 500 or so.

His VVS shrunk by 1386.

So at the height of his offensive things are pretty much stagnant except for the hexes he has gained. I think keeping myself from getting pocketed and losing a lot of troops in big chunks will be my most important goal to get into 1945 with the strength.

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RE: Summer 43 - 1/10/2012 5:38:33 PM   
Q-Ball


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Status: offline 		You're doing fine.

Airplane and Armor losses, though, are meaningless for the Soviets. Tank production is so high, the real limitation is number of tank units you can logistically support. If his tank numbers go down, he just has to REFIT and they'll bounce back.

You can't kill enough Russian tanks to make a difference


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RE: Summer 43 - 1/10/2012 10:42:56 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
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Status: offline 		Yes your right no pockets and you can counter attack some to build morale.

How many attacks per turn is he doing?

18k is not bad, my game vs Kamil in 44 I am losing about 30k per turn. Hes attacking 28 times a turn winning 66%.


The gun number is kinda high. You only have 36k, so that can put a hurt on you after a while.

What you have for armament pts? I beleive I had 500k, but we were totaly static( 3 attacks per turn) from March 1942 to December 1943.

Pelton

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RE: Summer 43 - 1/11/2012 3:43:44 AM   
Ketza


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Status: offline 		The average is 6k a turn I am losing. He is making around 15-20 attacks per turn but 5 or 6 of them are my throw away LW regiments I toss in the open hexes where he has gained control but not occupied them. I get 2 or 3 holds per turn but its clear I wont get much more then that against his stomp stacks of guards corps.

I have around 230k arms in the pool.

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RE: Summer 43 - 1/11/2012 10:28:04 AM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ketza

The average is 6k a turn I am losing. He is making around 15-20 attacks per turn but 5 or 6 of them are my throw away LW regiments I toss in the open hexes where he has gained control but not occupied them. I get 2 or 3 holds per turn but its clear I wont get much more then that against his stomp stacks of guards corps.

I have around 230k arms in the pool.


Your good on armaments I would say. 6k is good.

His tempo of 15 to 20 attacks per turn for the summer of 43 is what I would consider as high. So game is still a toss up. Your in good shape, but he is keeping tempo high enough so as to atleast chip away alittle at your over all OOB and morale.

The good thing is he will not be able to mount anything major because his strength is growing slowly and not building fast.

I would prepare for an major offensive during blizzard because of froozen rivers.

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RE: Summer 43 - 1/14/2012 2:33:06 AM   
Ketza


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Status: offline 		Turn 109

He stepped attacks a bit. This turn Axis had 10 holds. Some of that was due to Panzers being on reserve duty.




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RE: Summer 43 - 1/14/2012 2:43:10 AM   
Ketza


Posts: 2227
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Status: offline 		Turn 109 air losses. Even with the latest patch he launched some 30 airbase raids.




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