kfsgo
Posts: 446
Joined: 9/16/2010 Status: offline
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So much to think about...mostly in Burma. Current strength at Allahabad is 3076av. Main divisional units are Aus 6th and 7th, US 40th and Americal, Indian 7th, 26th and 11th. 11th Indian is making good progress towards reconstruction and with 98th Bde being disbanded should be at full strength except in artillery by the end of the month, which brings that up to about 3300. Growth in armoured Bde will bring it up to about 3450. Importantly the only large restricted unit among this lot is Indian 26th Div, which will need a month's worth of political pull to release. Several auxiliary units are restricted but I have been exceptionally miserly with replacements until now, so they can be had cheaply. Still, it'll take everything we get until at least late September to buy everything out. Available for duty but at the front are 18th Brit and 17th Indian Divs; another 900av. Brit 2nd Div is concentrating at Aden; last brigade is five days away. Approx. 500av. US 32nd Infantry Div and large artillery complement is putting ashore at Karachi at the moment. 400av + big bang. Two RAAF fighter squadrons are one week out, 1st Marine Div, 31st and 147th Infantry Rgts and their armour are two weeks out, along with 200kt of supplies. Aus armour is about five weeks out. ~1000av. 112th US Cavalry Rgt arrives SF in two weeks and will serve in India. 75av. Chinese are working up at Rangpur. 500av now, maybe 800av by autumn. Chinese are also working up in Yunnan. 800av now, maybe 1100av by autumn if air transport doesn't suffer too much. Have been using transport sqns on 30% rest which has cut ops losses dramatically - strength has been increasing although obv. at cost in supply throughput. Two Chindit Bdes will be available by autumn. Maybe 250av. So...250+1100+800+75+1000+400+500+900+3450...I make that 8475, but I could be wrong. Will probably be more, given growth in units. Suspect that's enough to bowl the Japanese over in Burma, if they can all be kept fed. I think they can, but it'll be a drain - if we do make Rangoon, which is the priority but an open question, doubt we will have the ability to go further before early 1944. Have an operational plan, after a fashion, but ability to conduct it to full effectiveness will depend on supply situation. Will spill beans closer to time. Remaining in India or a few days' march up the Arakan will be: Burma Div, 14th, 19th, 20th, 23rd, 25th Indian Divs - maybe ~1500av between them. 1 Dutch, 1 US, 3 Brit, ~13 Indian Bdes, ~2350av between them. Extra Brit Bde and 9th Aus Div if necessary in Jan. 43 - ~650av Enough to be safe...I think. Will need to draw Japanese into Pacific to be sure. How to deploy them is an open question. Ideally want to suck reinforcements at least to far DEI or less ideally Ceylon in leadup to opening Burma; may borrow a few USN transports and get one or two sunk to reinforce the illusion. Unfortunately Japanese have seemingly abandoned sub campaign in Indian Ocean after few successes and several losses so opportunities to "accidentally" lose ships here are few and far between. Pacific and Australia seeing many more subs; Niue, Pago Pago etc infested with them. Possible that J expect major operations from here? Operations in Australia are Being Looked At; three infantry Divs available for seaward ops, maybe another by appropriate time depending on USMC. Can do more than that overland within Australia, but issue is of time taken getting to and from places & what happens to those places in meantime. Don't know what IJHQ knows about Australian garrison situation. Could be a good thing or a bad thing depending which way that determination swings. Do have free AA units to permit threatening Darwin overland, if not necessarily to permit taking it. Carrier force will likely head for Aus after refits as fuel situation is improving.
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