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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u

 
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/4/2011 9:04:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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Okay, I think I understand now. Thanks, gents.

As for the "what if the hex is already under your control," that I'm not sure about. I will err on the side of assuming that doesn't exempt me from the shock-attack calculation.

After digesting this, I think what Steve will try to do is "flood" Changsha quickly to see if he can get better than 3x the AV into the hex, thus forcing Allied troops to shock attack to enter the hex. I should be able to counter that fairly easily by maintining about 2,500 AV in the hex and adjusting that up a little if it looks like he can approach or exceed 7,500 AV.

If he does try that and finds that he's been stymied, he can then shift his troops back to the hex to the south and try a sudden mass assault across the river at Siangtan or Henyang, hoping to get there en masse before my reinforcements arrive.

It's going to be an interesting chess match, but I think the Chinese can handle the variables effectively to ensure that Japan ends up having to attack under unfavorable circumstances no matter what hex is finally selected for the assault.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/4/2011 9:44:38 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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I think you are in good shape regardless what the Japanese try. You can always shift in time to block a river assault or reinforce Changsha at will as long as he doesn't try and turn your flank somewhere else. Going head to head against your strength will take time and cost heavy casualties. I think the key to taking China is the North anyway. The terrain, river crossings and interior lines of communication for the Chinese make the South extremely difficult to take. Before tackling Changsha I'd be after cutting the railway at Liuchow or Kweilin first and work my way towards Changsha or Tuyun to spread out the Chinese and avoid river assaults. If the Chinese are allowed to mass in good defensive terrain at the point of the Japanese thrust it can be almost impossible to budge them. In my experience it's time for Japanese forces to become waterlike and move around these large concentrations of Chinese forces to threaten supply routes and force you to move, a static Chinese defence is hard to crack. There's a time to take on large Chinese stacks head-on for sure, but I don't believe this is the time.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 5/4/2011 9:46:34 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/4/2011 10:42:32 PM   
Nemo121


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quote:

If the Japanese take a licking on the Changsha front, the Chinese in northern China will go on the offensive.


Why the reactiveness?

Why attack him ONLY if his attack goes badly? Why not hit him now and draw forces away from the coming attack in Changsha making it more likely you can go on a general offensive. If you can create a situation of Order, Counter-Order, Disorder you might be able to get his reserves shuffling back anf forth without ever being committed - which is the operational and strategic acme of the art in such a situation.

P.s. Canoerebel, true, ALTHOUGH, there's nothing wrong with extolling the NORRIS everywhere.

E.g. When Chuck Norris goes to Rome, Rome does as Chuck Norris does.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 5/4/2011 10:51:15 PM >


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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/4/2011 10:44:43 PM   
Canoerebel


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Somehow, I think Nemo meant to post that comment in another thread....

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/6/2011 2:20:04 PM   
Canoerebel


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3/6/42

Dreaming of Disaster: I woke up in the wee hours of Thursday morning with the sudden realization: "What if the enemy were to attack at Singapore, prevail, and destroy all my fighters on the ground? It would cripple or eliminate my ability to defend myself in Sumatra! Disaster!" After mulling it over awhile, I decided that such an attack wouldn't prevail, would be costly to the Japanese, and that Steve wasn't likely to try it. But, imagine, worrying over AE in the middle of the night. Do any of you guys do that?

Singapore: So, I got up and checked out the combat report in my inbox...and found that Japan shock attacked at Singapore! Fortunately, if failed, though I think it was a great idea. Kudos to Steve for trying, as he probably had a shot and it would have crippled the Allies. The attack came off at 1:2, didn't touch the three forts, and cost Japan 233 infantry squads and 115 engineer squads destroyed. The Allies lost 73 and 93, respectively. The attack wasn't as one-sided as it seems. Japan may get even odds as soon as reinforcements arrive. I'm guessing Singapore will fall in three to four weeks.

Eastern DEI: No Japanese offensive moves yet.

Western DEI: Still tons of shipping at Oosthaven and Benkolen. I also have alot of ships at Cocos Island. In a few days, I'll have to pull my valuable ships back from the front lines. I'm definately expecting either a raid by the KB or a massive KB-escorted invasion of Java (or possibly Sumatra, though Steve strikes me as a step-by-step attacker).

China: A few tweaks made to Allied force disposition as I wait to see which, if any, of the three bases centered on Siangtan Steve elects to attack.

Luzon: Clark Field finally falls (I forgot to note in yesterday's post that it had held against one more deliberate attack). The shattered remnants of the Allied army retreats to Bataan, which has three forts and no supply. I suspect the garrison will fall on the first attack in less than a week, though Steve may elect to deliberate attack first and there is a small chance it will bring down forts from three to zero on the first attack, with the second taking the base.

Where Does the Enemy Go From Clark? Steve has five divisions that were committed at Clark and weaked (I think considerably) by the long campaign and repeated attacks there. They will need a few days or weeks to recover. I know at least one of these divisions was prepping for Auckland. I am hoping that Steve will elect to continue to emphasize SoPac, but I'm putting my money on the DEI. If he chooses SoPac or some other far-flung destination at this late date, he'll never be able to finish off Sumatra. He's got to come now while he still has a good chance of prevailing. I think he'll attend to Singapore, a few bases on Borneo (Singkawang, Balikpan, and Banjermasin) and perhaps Java first.

Allied Counter Offensive: During a long, long hike in the mountains yesterday (once again demonstrating my addiction to this game), I mulled over various Allied offensive operations. My main objective is to create a crisis situation for Steve - one that presents him with two hot spots that he can't attend to simultaneously or sequentually (at least with ease). One that puts pressure on him to allocate everything to both immediately - which of course he can't. I ultimately concluded that NoPac offers the best results based upon the following reasoning:

NoPac: The Kuriles are critical to Japan due to proximity to the Home Islands. Japan can't afford to allow the Allies to maintain big airfields here. Therefore, Japan has to react decisively and quickly. Wait too long and the Allies can create strong bases that are not completely isolated due to their proximity to the Aleutians. The KB is likely to be employed in the DEI now, so the Allies can employ combat ships to take and hold bases until Japan employs the KB. But if Japan employs the KB up there, the Allies would take advantage in Sumatra. So a Kuriles invasion forces Steve to allocate the KB one place or the other, allowing the Allies to consolidate and strengthen the "neglected" theater for long-term use. I also took into consideration that the Kuriles are lightly defended according to SigInt, the Allies have an American divisions 100% prepped for Paramushiro, and the availability of plenty of troop transports.

Malaya/Burma: An invasion in this theater now would not really create an immediate crisis for Steve. The crisis would be sequential rather than simultaneous. Steve could attend to Sumatra and then move all his troops to meet the second emergency. Also, the Allies would be reinforcing their own key weakness: India. I've been stripping troops for Sumatra; another invasion using the India torops would leave it essentially undefended. There is a chance that Steve could elect to bypass Sumatra, or to bypass the new invasion target after the fall of Sumatra, and hit India. While unlikely, such a move isn't beyond question.

Pacific Islands: An invasion of Wake, the Marshalls, the Solomons, etc. could well succeed due to the KB's expected absence. But, as with Malaya/Burma, the crisis would be sequential rather than simultaneous. None of these islands is critical to Japan right now. Steve could deal with the DEI and then move back to counter any threats to his island MLR.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/6/2011 2:23:56 PM   
Canoerebel


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Nemo, to answer your question about China, I could go on the offensive now, but I'm pretty sure that Steve is going to try a big attack somewhere that will seriously weaken his biggest army. Right now the Chinese have 10,000 AV to about 7,000 AV for Japan. But a disastrous attack for Japan would seriously improve the strength ratio in favor of the Allies. An Allied offensive will be that much stronger if it kicks off against a seriously weakened Japanese army.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/6/2011 3:15:37 PM   
jeffs


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>. But a disastrous attack for Japan would seriously improve the strength ratio in favor of the Allies. An Allied offensive will be that much stronger if it kicks off against a seriously weakened Japanese army.

That was the Soviet idea of grand offensive..Let the Germans ground themselves up on an offensive, as they are worn down is the time to attack..They did at Moscow, Stalingrad and after Kursk....

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/6/2011 4:02:40 PM   
Cribtop


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Ahh, Dan, you do love your NOPAC. Seems a sound idea as long as you can live with the extra troops. Japan has trouble with this front as there just aren't enough Netty groups and Air HQs to go around.

As for way too much AE, here is my list:

Lost sleep over worrying about the next replay - check

Dreamed about doing part of a turn so realistically I was surprised to find the orders not issued IRL - check

First person dream of piloting a Zero and a P-40 - check

Glad Mrs. Cribtop is a professional counselor to help out with "issues" - check.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 5/6/2011 4:03:55 PM >


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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/6/2011 4:23:46 PM   
Canoerebel


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Don't tell me you are married to Nemo or NYGiants?

(As far as I know, they are the only professional counselors qualified to deal with AE addiction. There may be other pyschiatrist/psychologist players, so forgive me if I omitted anybody).

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/6/2011 4:37:50 PM   
Nemo121


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LOL! I'm sure he'd prefer the tender ministrations of Mrs Cribtop though


Canoe,
Ah, ok, gotcha, "Never interrupt your opponent as he's busy making a mistake." Gotcha, just wanted to be sure it was part of a plan and not just over-defensiveness.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 5/6/2011 6:50:38 PM >


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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/6/2011 4:53:52 PM   
Cribtop


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Wow, I have really valued the advice both Nemo and nygiants have provided in my game against Cuttlefish, but I will definitely stick with Mrs. Cribtop. Plus, she's a redhead and you really don't want to piss her off near Mother's Day!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/6/2011 7:23:44 PM   
princep01

 

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Oh, my goodness, you do NOT want a redhead wife PO at you at Mother's Day. The electronic KB is no where near a match for that typhoon. It was not Mother's Day, but I once saw a redhead wife (about to be ex-wife) just destroy a client's pickup truck with an aluminum baseball bat. The client had the good sense to stand back (way back) and make only feeble verbal protests and whimpers as his pickup died a gruesome death. I stood even further back and prayer she had never read Hamlet (First, we kill all the lawyers). Happened right outside the courthouse in downtown Austin. The police did finally show up (snickering), but she had departed in something of a huff.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!u - 5/6/2011 7:39:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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Is a red-headed wife at Mother's Day as virulent as Chuck Norris? I'm just askin', cause there seems to be a Chuck Norris subculture expressing itself in another thread.

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aar - 5/6/2011 8:15:27 PM   
xnavytc

 

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great aar canoe, I enjoy reading it, getting some ideas as to how to play against the ai. Good move in the aleautians, and palembang. Never would have thought of making a fortress there. Again great aar keep up the great work. Look forward to reading more. And Nemo, great insight to strategy from u, again helping me against the AI.

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RE: aar - 5/6/2011 8:37:24 PM   
paullus99


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My particular red-headed significant other (some would say my much better half) is worth her weight in gold, but don't piss her off - it is a sight to behold.

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RE: aar - 5/6/2011 9:45:08 PM   
Cribtop


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There seems to be a subculture of AE players with redheaded significant others! Fortunately, my wife never engaged in physical violence (although the pickup story hit home as I'm a lawyer and also live in Austin - perhaps an Austin AE meetup is in order?). Could be I just have the sense not to push her too far though. I have no plans to take that risk!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/6/2011 10:49:50 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I hope I'm right about this, but as you already own the base, I think there would be no shock attack for you.



Unless changed in some of the patches I am not so sure. I think morale and experience comes into play as well. I recall getting hammered so many times that I quit trying to reinforce Chinese units over a river hex. As well it should. Any Chinese unit crossing a river should have some serious risks.



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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/6/2011 11:01:41 PM   
princep01

 

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Cribtop, sure thing....drop a line to princep01@yahoo.com. We can trade AE, lawyering and other stories. Don't want to hijack the thread.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/7/2011 12:38:22 AM   
Nemo121


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Someone mentioned Chuck Norris? All hail THE Norris!!!!

Nothing is worse than an angry red head.

That's cause Chuck Norris doesn't get pissed, you just get dead !!!!

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Well, that's that settled then.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/7/2011 2:29:03 PM   
Canoerebel


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3/7/42

Marking the Anniversary: This is the three-month anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor...and the same date Q-Ball invaded Ceylon in my previous AE PBEM match.

Singapore: The Japanese shock attack two days ago lowered the Allied AV from 1,000 to 674. At a 1/3rd attrition rate, that was prety alarming, though I'm sure it messed up the Japanese troops too. A day later, the Allied AV is 711. Forts have creeped up to 3.93. At this rate it will take four more days without air attacks to get to 4. I don't know if I'll have that luxury, but I'll work at it.

Western DEI: The Allies have 3,250 AV in eastern Sumatra, which is close to my original goal. However, I've since revised that upward to about 4,000 AV as I'd like to beef up Padang's garrison. I think I have about 100 more AV on the way, but after that it's going to be tough to draw troops, because I won't have any PP left.

Eastern DEI: Mini KB is stationed at Kendari and a large IJ combat TF is at Denpasar. This surprises me because Steve is taking a chance that my carriers won't pounce.

China: Steve will shortly have all his stack in the hex across from Siangtan.

NoPac: In another day I'll have enough PP to buy 41st Divsion at Seattle.

KB: No sign of it since it departed Fiji five or six days ago.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/7/2011 10:51:56 PM   
Canoerebel


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3/8/42

Eastern DEI: Mini KB remains at Kendari. Combat ships at Dempasar with another TF closing that way. Steve may try a quick invasion of a small Java port. The time is drawing nigh to where it would be within the realm of possibility for the KB to show up in the DEI, so I'm taking precautions.

Western DEI: Singapore is up to 3.96 forts. Two more days should do it, so I think I can make it. Most of the latest wave of reinforcements has finished unloading at Benkolen and Oosthaven.

Capetown: Lots of USA troops just arrived. I have transports sufficient to carry a coastal artillery unit and an EAB to Benkolen. The other troops will have to wait a few days for more transports to reach port.

China: 30 IJA units across the river from Siangtan. Two more yet to come. Then we'll see if Steve takes a crack at one of the three bases.

NoPac: The Allies have green-lighted the invasion of Paramushiro and Onnekotan Jima. I bought 41st Division, paying 1700+ political points. Loading begins in a day or two, though I prefer to go into the beaches only after the KB has shown itself in the DEI.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/7/2011 10:52:57 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/8/2011 12:15:42 AM   
paullus99


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I'd be shocked if he didn't bring the entire KB to the DEI - he's got to try to shut you down quickly now, since he has some idea that you've committed yourself (by the exposure of your carriers) to its robust defense. I seriously doubt that he has any idea what he's up against & may make the same mistake he has made repeatedly at this point - undercommitted his ground forces.

It will probably become a meat-grinder, which will benefit you in the long term anyway. A good chance as well that you can cause him additional panic when you "hit him where he ain't."

Good luck & good hunting.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/8/2011 12:34:25 AM   
Cribtop


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He is lucky the USN CVs withdrew to refit, or you'd be serving him up a second helping of pain at Dempassar.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/8/2011 1:02:12 PM   
Canoerebel


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3/9/42

Eastern DEI: Mini KB still at Kendari. TF comprised of Kongo, Haruna, Atago, Takao, Kako, and Furutaka bombards Lautem. I'm wondering what the combat TFs at Denpasar and Mersing are made up of.

Western DEI: Singapore is at level 3.98. One more turn without an aerial bombardment will get it to 4. The AV is up to 750.

The Coming Clash: At some point, Steve will have to land a very big army on Sumatra. If he chooses an exposed base - especially Benkolen or Padang - the Allies will counter with the weight of the combined fleets. By then I expect to have at least seven BBs. The objective will be to mess up an invasion force even if if the cost is high (if a Japanese invasion force is savaged, there's no telling when or if the Japanese could ever take Sumatra). So a very big battle should be coming. I'm betting it won't be until the enemy has taken Singapore and Java, but I'm keeping my eyes and options open in case Steve lunged forward.

Carriers: Lex and Sara are due for upgrades. I'm leaning towards allowing this when they arrive at Colombo in two days (Ent and York will arrive too, but aren't due for upgrades until April). This may be the best window to upgrade before the coming battle for eastern Sumatra. The RN carriers (Indominatable and Hermes) remain on station south of Sumatra).

China: The waiting for the Japanese to attack begins. I'm also watching my two flanks - Chengte and Kweilin. The Allies will have weeks of notice if Japan were to try to get to Chengte via bad roads. Kweilin, though, is flapping weakly in the breeze. I have reinforcements on the way - the Sian garrison is currently between Kienko and Chungking and will be available in about a month.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/8/2011 1:04:38 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/8/2011 1:15:59 PM   
Canoerebel


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P.S. There's a big dance going on (partly in my head) with my combat ships and carriers right now. The DEI is full of choke points and tight waters where it would be possible to get important ships cut off and isolated were the KB to show up at the right places at the right time. We're just now entering the period where it is conceivable that the KB could have made it to the DEI from Fiji at top speed. Since I haven't sighted the KB since it departed Fiji, I'm assuming it could show up anywhere at any time. Until I know where it is, I don't want to get my ships ambushed (as in a raid against the enemy ships at Denpassar) or isolated (as in a raid against the enemy ships at Mersing - if the KB showed up around Banjermasin at that point, my ships wouldn't be able to retire through the Sunda Straights into the Indian Ocean). So, I'm busy working my pickets ships and aircraft patrols to see what I might find.

The lack of activity might work in my favor. In the past, it has seemed that Steve gets a little comfortable when things become quiet. In the past, he's exposed valuable ships in Indian country during such lulls. There will come another day when I'll be looking for such opportunities.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/8/2011 1:17:51 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/8/2011 4:09:02 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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This is beginning to look like a serious booty-kicking.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/8/2011 7:56:05 PM   
paullus99


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If you can develop your Sumatran airfields to the extent that you have multiple viable large fields, you can rotate large numbers of fighters and bombers to really make it difficult for your opponent to shut them down effectively.

Of course, this also means that you need to start (if you haven't already) a steady stream of supply as well - even though you are generating your own at this point, you've also got quite the army to support, not including a lot of airpower that will be used as well.

This is becoming a worst-case scenario for the Japanese - a very large, well-defended base of operations for the allies, in exactly the place they don't need it at this point. If you also pull out all the stops in the Northern Kuriles - he's in a world of hurt, again, in exactly where he doesn't want to be.

Again, good hunting!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/8/2011 8:51:33 PM   
princep01

 

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Paullus, JJ is already in a world of hurt as I see it. I don't read his AAR, but I think he was likely pushed off plan a long time ago and is psychologically kaput. For him, it has just one nasty surprise after another. None of the defeats, in and of themselves, have been that serious, but cumulatively, they have caused him to become shell-shocked. He is literally floundering about and cannot achieve even the conquest of Borneo without hiccups, internal rattles and squeaks and much sailing to and fro without any redeeming effect (like taking Kuching or Balikpapan). All of Borneo should have been JJ's long ago.

Meanwhile, CR may still be on the strategic defensive, but he is now tactically asserting himself most offensively. He is also developing strategic offensive plans for the relative near term. While I know this is possible from Nemo's (and a very others) previous games, it is nice to see CR assert himself so aggressively, this early in the game. I'm learning a valuable lesson in AE play.

Nice CR.....very nice. Bill Halsey would have slapped you (hard) on the back and bought you a round or two for this:). Keep up the excellent work.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/9/2011 2:04:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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3/10/42

Thanks, gents. It's encouraging to read your comments. Of course, I'm glad that the game has thus far gone well for the Allies - the success attributable to a variety of causes including a fair bit of good luck. But things could change quickly and in a big way. The Allies have gone way out on a limb that could break - I like the limb and think it's sturdy, but if Japan wins a big carrier battle or somehow squashes my troops on Sumatra or successfully bypasses Sumatra and invades India - then the Allies could be in for a tough time. To be honest, I think the Allies will do well, but it's not guaranteed of course.

Eastern DEI: Mini KB remains at Kendari and a big combat TF at Denpassar. No signs of the KB here (or anywhere else).

Western DEI: The big glut of transports finished unloading. Here's the current defensive configuration in Sumatra: Oosthaven 895 AV (forts 3.24); Prabaemolith 182 (3.02); Palembang 1414 (4.11); Benkolen 624 (3.00); Djambi 75 (2.23); and Padang 152 (2.63). 18th Aussie Bde. preppeing for Oosthaven will arrive in about three days, bumping that garrison up to about 1,035. I may shift one Oost unit over to Benkolen. That's it for infantry prepping and on the way...so if I want to bolster Padang's garrison I've got to find some political points and draw down India a bit. To answer paullus99's question, the Allies have been steadlily working on the airfields at Palembang, Oosthaven, Benkolen and Padang so that I'll have the ability of shifting my fighters around when the Battle of Fortress Sumatra is truly underway. A NZ engineering unit is a few days away, bound for the inland dot base at Lahat...but I'm not sure I need another airfield. I may divert the unit to a base that could use some help with fort building.

Singapore: A little war within a war finally ended as forts here went to four. This took a long time and is a direct result of the series of successful fighter ambushes that finally persuaded Steve to discontinue the bomging efforts. Another benefit was the "all clear" to slip in some suppy convoys - supply is up to 38k and I may be able to get it up to 50k before things get hot.

China: All but one of the IJA stack are across the river from Siangtan. Steve has been reconning Hengyang, the southern-most of the three possible targets hexes. I've seen reports of his troops prepping for Changsha. The Allies have 3900 AV at each of Hengyang and Siangtan and 2,400 at Changsha. That's probably the final configuration.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/9/2011 2:09:54 PM >

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Post #: 659
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/9/2011 6:47:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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The situation in the western DEI as of 3/10/1942




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