Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002 From: Northwestern Georgia, USA Status: offline
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3/6/42 Dreaming of Disaster: I woke up in the wee hours of Thursday morning with the sudden realization: "What if the enemy were to attack at Singapore, prevail, and destroy all my fighters on the ground? It would cripple or eliminate my ability to defend myself in Sumatra! Disaster!" After mulling it over awhile, I decided that such an attack wouldn't prevail, would be costly to the Japanese, and that Steve wasn't likely to try it. But, imagine, worrying over AE in the middle of the night. Do any of you guys do that? Singapore: So, I got up and checked out the combat report in my inbox...and found that Japan shock attacked at Singapore! Fortunately, if failed, though I think it was a great idea. Kudos to Steve for trying, as he probably had a shot and it would have crippled the Allies. The attack came off at 1:2, didn't touch the three forts, and cost Japan 233 infantry squads and 115 engineer squads destroyed. The Allies lost 73 and 93, respectively. The attack wasn't as one-sided as it seems. Japan may get even odds as soon as reinforcements arrive. I'm guessing Singapore will fall in three to four weeks. Eastern DEI: No Japanese offensive moves yet. Western DEI: Still tons of shipping at Oosthaven and Benkolen. I also have alot of ships at Cocos Island. In a few days, I'll have to pull my valuable ships back from the front lines. I'm definately expecting either a raid by the KB or a massive KB-escorted invasion of Java (or possibly Sumatra, though Steve strikes me as a step-by-step attacker). China: A few tweaks made to Allied force disposition as I wait to see which, if any, of the three bases centered on Siangtan Steve elects to attack. Luzon: Clark Field finally falls (I forgot to note in yesterday's post that it had held against one more deliberate attack). The shattered remnants of the Allied army retreats to Bataan, which has three forts and no supply. I suspect the garrison will fall on the first attack in less than a week, though Steve may elect to deliberate attack first and there is a small chance it will bring down forts from three to zero on the first attack, with the second taking the base. Where Does the Enemy Go From Clark? Steve has five divisions that were committed at Clark and weaked (I think considerably) by the long campaign and repeated attacks there. They will need a few days or weeks to recover. I know at least one of these divisions was prepping for Auckland. I am hoping that Steve will elect to continue to emphasize SoPac, but I'm putting my money on the DEI. If he chooses SoPac or some other far-flung destination at this late date, he'll never be able to finish off Sumatra. He's got to come now while he still has a good chance of prevailing. I think he'll attend to Singapore, a few bases on Borneo (Singkawang, Balikpan, and Banjermasin) and perhaps Java first. Allied Counter Offensive: During a long, long hike in the mountains yesterday (once again demonstrating my addiction to this game), I mulled over various Allied offensive operations. My main objective is to create a crisis situation for Steve - one that presents him with two hot spots that he can't attend to simultaneously or sequentually (at least with ease). One that puts pressure on him to allocate everything to both immediately - which of course he can't. I ultimately concluded that NoPac offers the best results based upon the following reasoning: NoPac: The Kuriles are critical to Japan due to proximity to the Home Islands. Japan can't afford to allow the Allies to maintain big airfields here. Therefore, Japan has to react decisively and quickly. Wait too long and the Allies can create strong bases that are not completely isolated due to their proximity to the Aleutians. The KB is likely to be employed in the DEI now, so the Allies can employ combat ships to take and hold bases until Japan employs the KB. But if Japan employs the KB up there, the Allies would take advantage in Sumatra. So a Kuriles invasion forces Steve to allocate the KB one place or the other, allowing the Allies to consolidate and strengthen the "neglected" theater for long-term use. I also took into consideration that the Kuriles are lightly defended according to SigInt, the Allies have an American divisions 100% prepped for Paramushiro, and the availability of plenty of troop transports. Malaya/Burma: An invasion in this theater now would not really create an immediate crisis for Steve. The crisis would be sequential rather than simultaneous. Steve could attend to Sumatra and then move all his troops to meet the second emergency. Also, the Allies would be reinforcing their own key weakness: India. I've been stripping troops for Sumatra; another invasion using the India torops would leave it essentially undefended. There is a chance that Steve could elect to bypass Sumatra, or to bypass the new invasion target after the fall of Sumatra, and hit India. While unlikely, such a move isn't beyond question. Pacific Islands: An invasion of Wake, the Marshalls, the Solomons, etc. could well succeed due to the KB's expected absence. But, as with Malaya/Burma, the crisis would be sequential rather than simultaneous. None of these islands is critical to Japan right now. Steve could deal with the DEI and then move back to counter any threats to his island MLR.
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