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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/11/2011 6:08:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I won't need aircraft for a long time (except for patrols).

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Post #: 691
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/11/2011 7:22:23 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		What about his recon assets up there - didn't he grab one of the Aluetians towards the beginning of the war? Are you going to route around any potential entanglements?

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Post #: 692
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/11/2011 7:32:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think Steve is neglecting NoPac right now if I'm reading the signs correctly. He has Amchitka Island, and he's basing patrol aircraft there, but there's no sign of any building going on anywhere else. All of his Kuriles and Sikhalin Island bases are still at the same levels they were when the war began, and SigInt indicates that there are only 2k troops at Paramushiro.

Since there are no airfields greater than level one, and since the KB will be far away (else I won't proceed), and since the Alllies will have at least temporary control of the seas (I'll have five BBs and most or all of the IJN will be in the DEI), I am very comfortable proceeding with a quicky invasion against light opposition. I can certainly avoid the patrol aircraft operating out of Amchitka. Whatever is operating out of Paramushiro won't come into play until just a day or two before D-Day.

I have a good feel for everything involved in the equation except the potency of the Paramushiro CD guns. I don't think they can defeat the invasion, but I am concerned lest they sink my precious APs. But that's a risk I'm going to take.

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Post #: 693
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/11/2011 7:45:42 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Very sound plan - I'd be surprised if you don't see the KB in the next few days, especially if it looks like he's going to start moving again. I'm surprised he hasn't attacked at Singapore again, he's going to get a rude awakening when he hits those level 4 forts - and if he's slowing down to try to pull together overwhelming force, well, all the better for you.

Time is your friend & his enemy.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 694
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/12/2011 1:58:37 AM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Why Paramushiro Jima?

Surely you could land at bases around Paramushiro at less cost, taking more bases and use the US engineer advantage to build them up to the level you require in a timely fashion?

Last time I took on dedicated pre-war CD guns with an amphibious TF containing BBs I lost 2 BBs to the damage ( fires and system damage causing sinking several days later ). Unless the algorithms have changed I would only take on dedicated, emplaced CD guns if absolutely necessary.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 695
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/12/2011 1:01:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I have no questions about the advantages of taking Paramushiro, just the cost.

Advantages:  Allies get secure set of bases with no enemy base in the rear; better ability to configure a full defense of the Kuriles if the enemy tarries in attacking; better shock value in getting Steve's full attention.  There's something about taking Paramushiro that will get a Japanese player's attention, and since an important aspect of this operation is give Steve a contemporaneous crisis in NoPac, I'd like to make the crisis as big as I can.

Cost: The only question here is the impact of the CD guns.  In my previous invasion of Paramushiro two games ago, my transports got chewed alive by those guns.  However, I didn't properly configure the TFs with cruisers and/or battleships.  I'll have the ability to do so this time, so if that will reduce the cost to an acceptable level then I'll proceed.  However, I don't think anyone is sure yet how potent Para's guns are given all the patches since I last tried this.  The general feeling seems to be that capital ships embedded in the transport TFs will work, but I haven't seen any certainty, just hunches.  I suppose I need to run some tests.  If those CD guns tear into capital ships and transports, I'll shift my targets to Onnekotan and an island or two to the south - but first I'd re-evaluate the operation to see if it's worth doing with an enemy base in my rear.

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Post #: 696
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/12/2011 3:43:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/13/42

A very good day for the Allies, leading to new thoughts and possibilities.

Singapore: Japan sent massed fighters and bombers against Allied shipping and a stout CAP at Singapore. The fighting was long and hard, with the Allies downing 105 aircraft and losing just 27. The Hurricanes were the stars of the show, while the Oscars seemed to perform better than the Zeros. The RAF has a bunch of new aces and quite a few pilots with experience/skill numbers in the high 70s or low 80s. The Japanese did manage to sink two xAK a few hexes south of the port. Allied AV here is up to 818 (after going down to 670 following the last Japanese shock attack), forts 4.07, supplies nearly 50k.

Impact: Steve had already shown a marked reluctance to take on the Allied fighters at Singapore and this amplify his negative feelings. I doubt he attacks again until he has what he thinks is overwhelming force. I think the Allies will have air superiority over Singapore for awhile yet. This will also seriously diminish whatever thoughts he might have had about invading forward beyond his LBA umbrella. I was pretty sure he'd go step-by-step in the DEI, but as far as I'm concerned this cements things for quite some time. I think the Allies will have time to bring in additional troops - mainly engineers and CD guns - to Sumatra. I also wanted Steve to reveal his carriers, but there is a chance he'll slow down his advance and move in very small steps under cover of LBA. I might need to employ some combat ships to interdict some of his forward shipping to draw him out.

Reinforcing or Going on the Offensive: Yesterday I re-read the Nemo/One-Eyed AAR from February through the end of March 1942. It had been a long time and learned or re-learned alot. First, I have to tip my CAP to Nemo, who is way ahead of me in terms of knowing exactly what he's dealing with, what he has, and what he can do. Second, it was interesting to see the very quick evolvement of his thinking from defensive to offensive in the DEI. One day he was planning to defend Sumatra, then he shifted to offensive plans to invade Malaya due to his opponent's situation and mind set. My situation is good, but not nearly as good as Nemos (he had already successfully gone on the offensive in the Kuriles and Marshalls and was wreaking havoc in the DEI and Philippines). I think if I had enough political points right now, I'd strongly consider reinforcing Singapore (that's one base where I have an advantage over Nemo at this point in the two games).

Western DEI: The Allies are growing very strong now. A bunch of American aircraft squadrons just arrived in theater to replace a few that had to be withdrawn. The army and fortifications on Sumatra are very strong and getting stronger. And the Allied navy in the region is likewise strong. Japan can still achieve superiority in all three categories, but the force correlation is close enough that the Allies can take Japan on - and even achieve victories if I do my job right. (The Japanese have invaded lightly-garrisoned Singkawang, which they'll take tomorrow. This is a good move by Steve, but very late...too late.)

India: Lexington and Saratoga will be in the yards for 26 days to upgrade. Yorktown and Enterprise are available for duty as soon as their destroyers upgrade (a week). I may send them back to theater then.

China: The IJN stack is in that middle hex across the river from Siangtan. I still don't know which way Steve will move. I think Changsha is most likely. I'd really like him to attack in a big, self-destructive way soon, so that the Chinese can then go on the offensive against a seriouly weakened enemy force.

NoPac: I'm going to run tests on the Paramshiro shore guns later today.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/12/2011 4:25:56 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Tests against PJ are the way to go. I would also open a Japan game and check the size and number of the guns. 6 inch or less, go for it but expect a few losses. 8 inch or more, or a huge number of 6 inch guns, seek easier prey.

PS I know Japanese guns are in centimeters but you get the idea.

PPS the Singapore debacle shows that you are gaining enough pilot experience that the enemy can't rely on getting air superiority without big numbers, which I'm not sure he has anymore.

PPPS You're winning.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/12/2011 6:09:04 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		A couple of other noteworthy items as I wrap up the turn and send it to Chez:

1. SigInt reports 52nd Division on a maru bound for Mersing. This unit was previously in Manchuria. I may try for an intercept - three or four combat TFs are staging forward to Oosthaven from the India Ocean. If things look promising upon arrival there, they'll proceed to Mersing.

2. Enemy troops are finally arriving at Bataan. I'm anxious to know if Chez devotes all five Clark Field divisions to the operation or if he siphoned off one or more for immediate deployment elsewhere. (Commitmen of all five against the shambles of an Allied army at Bataan would be a massive overkill and misallocation of forces suggesting he really is uncertain about what to do where.)

3. The Allies are leading in the air war (a first for me in AE ever). To date, the Japanese have lost 1277 aircraft, the Allies 1027. The Allies even have a slight lead in the a-2-a category.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/12/2011 7:38:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Comparison to Nemo's "Salutations and Solicitations" Game

This game bears some striking similarities and important differences to Nemo's "Salutations and Solicitations" game vs. One-Eyed-Jacks.

Both games are Scenario Two, feature Fortress Palembang efforts, and involve certain struggles by Japan. In March 1942, both games find the Allies strongly entrenched in Sumatra with Japan failing to make progress in the DEI - neither IJ player had landed on Java or taken on the Allied defenses in eastern Sumatra. But that's about where the similarities end.

First, credit where credit is due. Nemo is the originator (or an early contributor) to the Fortress Palembang idea. I'm just following in his footsteps, which is a much different (and easier) proposition.

Also, it was in March 1942 that the wheels came off for One-Eyed-Jacks. Nemo had already embarked on successful offensives in the Kuriles and Marshalls. His opponent reacted by committing most of the IJN to the defense of the Pacific, denuding himself of combat ships in the DEI. Nemo realized this and knew that Japan could never move on Sumatra if the fleet was in the Pacific. So Nemo was already transitioning to the offensive in the DEI by the end of March 1942 - with amphibious operations planned vs. Malaya and the islands south of Mindanao. The game had already spiraled out of control for Japan and things went downhill from there. I am sure that one of Nemo's few regrets was that he didn't get the pleasure of fighting for Eastern Sumatra.

In this game, I haven't embarked on any offensives in the Pacific to draw enemy assets away. Consequently, most of the Imperial Navy is in the DEI. That's a huge difference in the two games. I will be invading the Kuriles (assuming my tests are satisfactory), but my suspicious is that this will not draw the Japanese navy north.

One of the few advantages I have had is that the Allies held Singapore (Nemo abandoned it early to shift the troops to Sumatra; a wise move that worked well for him given his situation at the time). Holding Singapore has given the Allies a buffer and time to build Sumatra and has also resulted in a favorable attrition to the Japanese air forces.

We will see a Siege and Battle of Fortress Palembang in this game, which ought to be very interesting. My defenses aren't quite as stout as were Nemo's, but they are pretty good. Also, the IJ army has had seven divisions attrited thus far in the fighting on Luzon and at Singapore. So the IJ army may need some time to recover. Time is on the side of the Allies.

Playing the game this far into 1942, and then reading through Nemo's AAR yesterday, has increased my appreciation for his handling of the Allies in his game.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/12/2011 7:39:48 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/12/2011 10:13:00 PM   
Nemo121


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Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		One other thing I'd say is that one major difference between my game and this is that in my game China was a lot more active. I destroyed or bottled up about 7,000 AV of IJA troops in China ( including their armoured regiments from Manchuria ) by the end of March/mid April IIRC.

That 7,000 AV was a huge blow as it allowed me to threaten Shanghai and retake most of south-eastern China except the area around Hong Kong and Shanghai. This force 1EyedJacks to draft more troops into China, robbing those troops from the DEI and further delaying any thrust there.

In your situation though I think things will work out just fine. I'm particularly pleased to see the air force exchange ratio... This proves that with a little discipline the Allies CAN beat the Japanese in the air by mid-42, one just needs the discipline not to commit them too early... which most lack.

_____________________________

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Well, that's that settled then.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/12/2011 10:48:27 PM   
SuluSea


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121


In your situation though I think things will work out just fine. I'm particularly pleased to see the air force exchange ratio... This proves that with a little discipline the Allies CAN beat the Japanese in the air by mid-42, one just needs the discipline not to commit them too early... which most lack.


Credit to your AAR, I held Palembang until late September early October and by the time , IIRC the Japanese got there in late May greeted 5 forts , 108,000 in supply and the troops held on until fall, when they were evicted the place was shattered producing 4 oil I can't remember the refinery but it was less than 10 IIRC. The troops on hand were Dutch and a combined division from Singapore nothing else.

From what I've seen the allies can win the air war in '42 if he chooses to fight on his terms instead of the enemies ,it all depends on the people playing and tactics used, air to air loses in my last PBEM which lasted to late '42 was very wide and the whole conflict was fought with non working radar.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/13/2011 9:07:18 AM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/14/42

Eastern DEI: Quiet though there's plenty of enemy shipping in and around Kendari.

Western DEI: The Allies have 3521 AV in the eastern Sumatra bases now. I could use more, of course, but I'm low on political points that are desperately needed everywhere. It would be awhile before I could buy another restricted unit of any size, and by then I may be looking at going on the offensive somewhere else. So, for now, the emphasis will be on bringing in non-combat units (engineers, base forces, and CD units). The enemy took lightly-defended Singkawang with a very small force. I will counter-invade if the KB shows up somewhere far away, which is possible though not likely. At Singers, AV is back up to 834, or 83% of what is was before the second IJ shock attack. More SigInt that 52 Div. is on a TF bound for Mersing. Allied combat TFs including three BBs will rendezvous at Oosthaven tonight.

India: Prince of Wales is a week from completing repairs. When she went into the yards for 75 days after the critical Battle of Singkawang in December, I never thought she'd be ready in time to participate in the decisive Battle of Sumatra. But she will. Barring losses, the Allies will have eight BBs present - two slow American, PoW, Repulse, and four R-Class RN heavies. The first US Army RCT will be arriving at Bombay in less than a week.

China: Still no sign of enemy movement on the Changsha front.

NoPac: I haven't run the Paramushiro tests yet. 41st Division TF is a few days east of Dutch Harbor. Additional transports are loading at Pearl Harbor, and the main Onnekotan Jima RCT will load at Kodiak Island beginning in two days or so. If the tests go okay so that I green light the invasion, I'm leaning towards going in even if I don't know the whereabouts of the KB. In the unlikely event the KB was up this way, it would green light the Allies to go on the offensive in the DEI, so that I could turn a calamity into something worthwhile. I seriously doubt the KB would be up in NoPac. The only possible reason would be if Steve had decided to launch a major invasion of the Western Aleutians, which would be a wildly inefficient allocation of his forces.

SWPac/SoPac: To this point, the main IJ emphasis in the game has been in this region. I would love to see that continue as in IJ operations vs. New Zealand, Pago Pago, Port Moresby, or even Oz. No signs of activity, however, since the fall of Fiji.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/13/2011 9:39:05 AM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Canoerebel,
I think the biggest determinant of whether or not Paramushiro Jima is doable is going to be the length of time it takes to unload. Don't forget that if you can unload in 1 phase the guns will get 1 phase to shoot at your boots but if it takes 2 phases ( even if that's only for 3% of your men to unload in the 2nd phase ) then those guns are going to double the shots and a lot of ships which would otherwise get away with mild damage will end up sunk.

Overall though I'd be very, very wary of going up against Paramushiro Jima. I avoided it like the plague in my game for a reason.... and when I had no choice but to go up against fixed pre-war CD defences ( the pre-war bit is the key here ) I got crucified.

Obviously though game code changes since may negate this advice. With that said I'd be very, very wary of landing at Paramushiro Jima. Your attack will be a success but I worry about the cost. I also think that if you take Paramushiro Jima you will have ONE base and be open to being surrounded by IJA reinforcements to the surrounding bases and destroyed in detail. I think you'd do better to take 3 bases around Paramushiro Jima and just engage in an engineer race for AF Size which you'll win.

If Paramushiro Jima is a Level 1 airfield then it can't run offensive air missions yet anyways. Land elsewhere, crucify the AF with your dive and torpedo bombers and build up to AF size 2 before he does, keep two of your bases for defence and use 1 to keep PJ closed. Simple, effective, cheap and gives you a superior strategic defensive disposition when/if the riposte comes. That'd be my take anyways.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/13/2011 9:40:28 AM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		If the KB is anywhere but either in the DEI or heading there, you've already won. Everything else is a sideshow at this point & if you opponent hasn't realized the danger, he's already lost. Going ahead with the operation is a smart move (baring catastrophic testing results) - and it will put another bug in his ear & divide his attention even more.

You have a few areas of focus now - continued prepping for the coming Sumatran battle, the operations up north & prepping for offensive actions in the mid/long term.

What's the status of NG? Do you still hold Port Moresby & Milne Bay? If so, they could provide additional distractions away from the primary theater by threatening his SLOCs to the recent territorial advances into the SW Pacific.

You have the initiative now & careful planning will certainly maintain it.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/13/2011 11:33:37 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		I hit the Kuriles during an AI game a while back, and took four islands plus Paramushiro in 42 with only APs, AKs, and a smattering of xAPs and xAKs. On Para J I put a US regiment worth 125 AV plus a Combat Engineer group worth 40 AV. I hit it with two bombardment groups consisting of 2 BBs and few CAs for two turns previous to landing, and had a BB in the invasion TF too.

While I only took damage to the transports, and all got away after unloading, the disruption to the troops was massive, and I didn't take the base for another month. I had the four other islands up and running with level 3-4 airfields and 2-3 ports by the time Para J finally fell.

I would concur with Nemo that a concentration toward invading the unprotected islands, a quick buildup, and then a Para J secondary invasion, if still possible, might yield better results. He can't pt much air there anyway, and it will be isolated after you're in the region, so impossible to supply.

For the most southern island I hit, Uruppa Jima, I used a marine raider battalion on ADPs and only lost a few ships in spite of the air from Hokkaido.

I did this all in the autumn of 42, so the more difficult part for you is that the weather is good for the next 6 months up there and he can come back at you quickly. You'll build things up much quicker, but he can as well, and can fly a bunch of air in.

Should be fun to watch!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/13/2011 11:37:39 AM   
Fishbed

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


Should be fun to watch!


Aye, I think obvert pretty much sums up my main feeling!
Eagerly looking forward to it

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/13/2011 10:18:33 PM   
Miller


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Status: offline 		The IJN should be taking Singkawang in the first week of the game, not the middle of March!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/14/2011 3:00:33 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/15/42

Thanks, Gents. I was out all day yesterday and did a turn on the fly today, so more detailed replies later. But, in short, Miller is right - Singkawang and/or Kuching should be taken at the start of the war. Nemo, I prefer to take Paramushiro if I can do so at a reasonable cost - not sure about that yet.

Eastern DEI: Quiet.

Western DEI: The Japanese are landing at Kuching and showing much more interest in this region, though this interest is very tardy. Steve loaded up his new base at Singkawang with aircraft, so Allied movements will be monitored more closely. But the Allies have alot of good fighters in Sumatra and Java, now, so I can still slip in transports as the need arises. Two IJ subs hit mines at Merak, though one managed to sink a tanker.

China: The IJ stack is sitting across the river from Siangkang.

NoPac: The enemy has garrisoned Shimisura Jima with 1k (per SigInt) and the cursor shows aircraft there. This will make sneaking up on the Kuriles more difficult, though level one bases aren't going to halt the Allies. I'll run the tests for Paramushior "any day now."

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/14/2011 4:37:34 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
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From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		FYI, I checked PJ and they have some pretty big guns there.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/16/2011 1:17:03 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Convergence of the Force: I've had this ominious feeling that massive IJ firepower is preparing to pounce in the DEI. My confidence in my patrols to provide warning eroded considerably when a Japanese invasion TF "suddenly" showed up at Singkawang. I had decided before receiving this turn to pull back my biggest combat TFs from Oosthaven into the Indian Ocean until the situation clears. Sure enough, this turn a host of enemy TFs are reported all over the South China Sea plus the Kendari/Makassar area. The forces includes at least one reported "CV" near Singkawang. So I issued the "retire in order" directive. Now we'll see what's going on.

Hobson's Choice: Steve is faced with a dilemma. He has to keep the KB in the DEI in order to make relatively speedly progress against sizeable Allied LBA and combat ship. (He could rely solely upon LBA, but his rate of advance would slow tremendously, permitting the Allies to reinforce and eventually to go on the offensive). If the KB is in the DEI, though, Japan will be on the defensive in the Pacific. The Allies intend to take advantage of Japan's dilemma.

China: Japan seems to be drawing off part of it's stack before Siangang, moving at least one unit to the south, where it can only threaten Hengyang. The Allies will monitor, awaiting an opportunity to pounce while hoping Japan impales itself in an ill-advised attack.

Luzon: The entire IJA stack moved from Clark Field to Bataan - those five army divisions have thus spent another week moving through the jungle to attack a depleted stack that would fall to a single division or even a mixed brigade.

NoPac: The Onnekotan troops are loading at Kodiak Island. I'll run the Paramushiro tests at work tomorrow, then make a final decision.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/16/2011 2:35:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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One of the most annoying things in the game is to hear Tokyo Rose bleating about some IJ conquest. One of the most stressful things is when you opponent sends an email with a short "Banzaii!!!" comment that could mean anything ranging from a minor to catastrophic for the Allies. So when I received such an email from Steve, my first thought was, "Oh no! The KB has pounced upon my battleships or carriers...or the enemy has achieved a coup de main by massively invading some vulnerable spot...or the enemy crossed the river and managed to take the critical Chinese positions at Hengyang or Siangtan..." As I began the lengthy process of opening the combat report, it occurred to me that the best case scenario for me was that comment came because Japan had taken Bataan, thus finally liquidating the Allied defenses on Luzon. Read on to find out which hunch was right...

Western DEI: Lots of Japanese shipping in the South China Sea spread from Mersing to the Singkawang/Kuching area. The Japanese have landed 13 additional units at Mersing. Once these reinforcements arrive at Singapore, I think that fortresses' days are numbered. Had I a little more time to work with, the Allies would reinforce Singapore. But I don't want to risk weakening my Sumatra defenses (especially combat ships) since that's the real key to everything. Singers AV is up to 858 with forts 4.16 and supplies 49k. All big Allied combat ships safely retired back into the Indian Ocean, where they'll remain on station until called for.

China: Most of the SigInt "prep" reports that I'm getting are focusing on Changsha rather than the other two bases, but none of these reports is for division-level units. The stack across from Siangtan is 33 units high. Steve moved one unit south to reinforce the mortar unit across from Henyang.

Luzon: Bataan falls on the first deliberate attack. The five enemy divisions have adjusted AVs averaging 325, so it may take them awhile to recover, move to port, load, and head to their next destinations. Steve exclaimed "Banzaii," but Luzon was an Allied victory in my books.

NoPac: Invasion transports continue to steam to the staging point - the Paramushiro ships will stage far north in the Bering Sea, while I think the Onnekotan ships will take a more southerly route. I will run the Paramushiro CD tests today and then make my final invasion decisions. I want to hit Para, but if I determine it's too tough, I'll instead target several of the islands south of Onnekotan.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/16/2011 2:36:16 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 712
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/16/2011 5:33:39 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Personally, I love hearing Tokyo Rose!

In this case, however, she is celebrating a hollow victory that is in fact a strategic defeat for Japan.


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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/16/2011 5:38:18 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		He's going to need time to get those PI divisions back into decent shape & you'll certainly bleed him again at Singapore - all of which bodes well for the near term. Every day he doesn't pressure you means more planes, more men & more prep for you that will kill him down the road.

What's your quick reaction force look like, knowing that you've got at least two carriers in the yard for the next three weeks? If we lunges forward without adequate support, another bloody nose would certainly buy you even more time.

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Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/16/2011 5:40:43 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		In addition to the AAR you mentioned I'd recommend Canoerebel's current AAR and also the team game AAR. Lastly, PzB's AAR - not a defence of the DEI AAR but one which certainly maximises advantages.

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John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/16/2011 7:20:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks, Nemo, I'll read my AAR!

Rapid Reaction: In the DEI, the Allies currently have four BBs and plenty of supporting CAs and DDs along with CV Indomitable and CVL Hermes. I seriously doubt Steve will leap forward far enough to tackle Sumatra before the American CVs are ready for action, but I'll commit whatever I have on hand if he does.

Paramushiro Tests: These tests are taking ridiculously long. FIrst, I decided to use the "1,000-Mile War" Scenario since it takes place during regular weather conditions. It took me a long time to cycle through the turns until the Allies had enough xAP to approximate what I'll have...then the computer routed my BB/CA onto the edge of the map where it wouldn't come back...then I sent in my much-weakend amphibious TF, which took nearly no damage. Hmmm, I thought, that don't seem right. So I checked the make up of the CD force...and discovered that the 1,000-Mile War Scenario lacks the six 8 cm 41YTDP guns that cause so much damage. So now I've set up a Scenario Two test with three-day turns. It's going to take me another hour or so just to get my ships up to Para, and even then the invasion will take place during winter, which means I won't learn anything reliable about troop condition, but at least I'll learn something about the CD guns...unless something else goes wrong.

The things we do for this game...

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/16/2011 7:23:55 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		*oops* Sorry that was meant to be in Deca's thread in the main forum. Sorry about that.

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John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/16/2011 9:46:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I completed the Paramushiro Jima test. I set up Scenario Two, three day turns, beginning 12/7/41 with the invasion beginning on 12/22/41. The invasion begins with a bombardment TF (BBs Maryland and Tennessee, CAs New Orleans and San Francisco), two CLs, 6 DDs, and 1 DMS. They are set to Minimum Bombard 5, Escorts Bombard. I don't know what effect they had, but these ships didn't take any damage.

They are followed that same morning by an amphibious TF: BB Pennyslvania, CA Indianapolis, 2 DD, 1 DMS, 4 AP, 4 xAP, and 8 xAK carrying 34th Infantry Regiment and 19th Combat Engineers with about 17 prep each. To my surprise, these ships take almost no damage - the only ship taking any at all was one of the APs, which had 90 FLT. The troops came ashore in good shape with lots of supplies, though the squads were disrupted mainly due to winter conditions. The Allied AV after three days was 31.

The Japanese defenses didn't take much damage - one of the six 8 CM 4YPTD guns was put out of commission. The AV dropped from 36 to 33 on day one, but recovered to 35 by day three.

Why the light damage? I don't think the Paramushiro Fortress had any less guns than it will have when I invade in the game. Also, the island only had level one forts, but I don't think that would make a difference. Could it have been the bombardment TF? The BB and CA embedded in the transport TF? Lucky die rolls? I confess that I don't know, but my conclusion is that under these conditions an invasion of Paramushiro with overwhelming force during non-winter conditions should succeed with acceptable losses.

Question: I used Minimum Bombard 5. Would anybody suggest a different level?

Caveat: Based upon Sigint, my belief is that Chez only has the fortress at Para; if he has reinforced my job gets tougher. However, the Allies have a US Army division 100% prepped and will be using a goodly number of APs, so I think that should get close to overwhelming force.

Conclusion: Unless somebody finds my logic faulty, I will proceed with the invasion of Paramushiro and Onnekotan.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/16/2011 9:57:30 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Did the BB and CA soak up a lot of non-penetrating hits? I would assume so. In that case, go with at least two BBs in the invasion TF and go git'em.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/16/2011 10:03:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That was the odd thing - there didn't seem to be any penetrating hits. The CD guns were weirdly inactive.

My plan for Paramushiro is to have BB Maryland and one other in a Bombardment TF. The invasion TF will have two other BBs.

I'm not expecting any defenses at Onnekotan, so I'll give it whatever suface combat support I can spare.

P.S. I invaded Paramushiro back when AE was new. I didn't set up my invasion force very well, as I recall. I know it didn't include any BBs, and it's possible it didn't include any CAs. I don't recall if I used a bombardment TF, though it's likely that I did. But in that invasion I suffered massive transport losses to the 8 cm guns. The difference could be subsequent patches to the game, the BBs embedded in the TF during my test, dice rolls, or a combination of these factors.

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