vettim89
Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline
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Looking at this situation makes me contemplate a number of things.
First, the fact that AE is a game does not nullify the strategic truths the Japanese faced in RL. If the Japan player looks at what is at his disposal on 7 Dec 1941 and thinks "I can do whatever I want because my forces are so superior to what I am facing that the best the Allies can do is put a few speed bumps in my path" then he is setting himself up for failure. The failure of the Japanese high command in WWII was more underestimating Allied resolve than it was underestimating Allied capabilities. They knew they had precious little time to capture those areas that were of prime strategic importance before the Allies could organize a defense. We talk of "Victory Disease" and that was a reality as far as the Japanese psyche. However, the success of the Centrifugal Offensive also led to Japan's flailing about in mid/late 1942. The plan was to take what Japan needed and defeat the Allies in the "Decisive Battle" at some point doing those operations. The theory was the Allies would then sue for peace with Japan being able to retain it's conquests as part of the negotiated truce. When the SRA was fully conquered by April 1942 without the decisive battle, Imperial HQ became embroiled in a series of debates as to what to do next. The point being that Japan was not interested in conquering places like New Caledonia, Samoa, and Fiji until the SRA was in it's hands. Time and again we see JFB conquering far flung places while neglecting the areas it really needs to sustain a war effort. While that may provide for some early war fun and even a little bit of "gotcha" gameyness, it really doesn't make for a very good long term game. So here we reach the point where Chez should be finishing up the SRA operations and he has barely begun. Instead we have the IJN rampaging about the Pacific taking places that are strategically non-vital
Second, the fact that many players have discovered in that the Allies are far from toothless even early in the war. In RL there were plans and attempts to reinforce the DEI. The reason they did not succeed is that the Japanese advance was more rapid than the Allies' ability to get the units in place. The provisional FS and BS that arrive in Australia at this point were ear marked for the defense of Java. The problem was that Java had fallen before the units could get into position to intervene (and the USS Langley went down with literally a boat load of P-40's on board). Point being that there was not an attitude that the Allies would just give up the DEI without a fight (i.e., no "Brave Sir Robin"). So if the Allies are given the opportunity to consolidate their positions, they can make Japan pay a heavy price for the SRA. In my 2x2 game with Nomad, we lost all of the Solomons, the New Hebrides, New Caledonia, Fiji, the Tonga Islands, and Samoa by Late April 1942, but we held all of Java and southern Sumatra. We were actually in better shape in Sumatra than Dan is here (1100 AS behind level 5 forts at Palembang). Here's the rub: we didn't contest the eastern Pacific conquests at all. We pulled all the war back to French Polynesia. End result, game over in May 1942 due to multiple Japan player withdraws. Take home message is that Japan cannot afford to let the Allies concentrate force around an objective it really needs to survive.
Nemo has pointed out that sometimes the most effective decision a player can make is to refuse battle. No point in fighting and potentially losing a major engagement over a piece of real estate that has no value to you. Dan has proven here that while CD has taken a "vast" empire in the SoPac, it is irrelevant because there is no oil in Samoa, Fiji et al. Conversely if CD had acted decisively and taken the SRA quickly with overwhelming force, Dan would be sweating now as to where he needed to draw the line in the sand as far as Oz vs India vs SoPac. Japan has precious little time to accomplish its goals. If the Allies can slow the advance down just a little, Japan is in trouble.
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"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 
. I'm the first to admit my game play has much room for improvement, but I can't help being frustrated watching Chez continue to take jab after jab needlessly leading to what may be a knockout blow very soon. 
) to continue with the game. Chez needs to do something similar - take time out and re-evaluate everything without preconceptions. I doubt he will though as that's a very difficult thing to make oneself do. It is what he should do though, IMO.
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