RE: Das darf nicht var sein!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/28/2011 7:24:44 PM

Canoerebel

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No doubt the Allies, if allowed to remain on the offensive, will continue occupying and building the bases north of Sumatra - including islands like Billiton and some bases on Borneo. I'd choose bases not subject to attack by land campaign (that's why Java isn't in consideration). Thus, Ketapang would be preferable to Pontianak, for instance. The Allies still hold all these bases, so it is possible to occupy and build somewhat unobviously, which should create some consternation when discovered by the enemy.

Steve has to get over his fascination with the Pacific and take control in the DEI. I still assume that he's going to try eventually. He has enough firepower to stop the Allies from advancing during the remainder of 1942 and into early 1943. I don't think he has the power to wrest eastern Sumatra from the Allies at this point.

So, I envision a massive Japanese campaigin in the DEI that should result in a stalemate for quite some time. That should create opportunities in other theaters. The Allies will continue to work the Kuriles, CenPac, and SoPac trying to maintain current positions (and in some cases establish new ones) that will maintain pressure outside the DEI and provide good launching pads if the DEI goes stale for awhile.

(in reply to vettim89)

Post #: 1891

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/28/2011 8:27:28 PM

Canoerebel

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There's one other important objective in this game (like all AE games): to destroy the enemy carriers, thus driving your opponent to his knees in a quivering mass of tears and recriminations, from whence he shall come to concede the game.

Steve has repeatedly divided the KB throughout the game and continues to do so. I could send the Allies carriers over there in hopes of dealing a blow, but of course that would be iffy. It's a long way from Cocos Island to Tarawa. More importantly, I will not jeopardize the real key to the game - the defense of Sumatra. So Steve is more than welcome to continue flaunting the KB in CenPac. In fact, I hope he does so for many weeks to come.

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Post #: 1892

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/28/2011 9:33:03 PM

JeffroK

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Re Sumatra.

Have you developed the inland bases , Lahat etc.

These provide a bombardment safe backup to the coastal airbases.

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Post #: 1893

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/28/2011 9:42:40 PM

paullus99

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He's also wearing out his ships, keeping them at sea (moving from the DEI to the PAC & back over and over again) - which means that there will come a time when he's forced to move at least a goodly portion of his available ships (and carriers) back to Japan for refit. When that happens, it will open up all kinds of new opportunities for you as well.

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Post #: 1894

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/28/2011 11:15:50 PM

vettim89

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There's one other important objective in this game (like all AE games): to destroy the enemy carriers, thus driving your opponent to his knees in a quivering mass of tears and recriminations, from whence he shall come to concede the game.

Steve has repeatedly divided the KB throughout the game and continues to do so. I could send the Allies carriers over there in hopes of dealing a blow, but of course that would be iffy. It's a long way from Cocos Island to Tarawa. More importantly, I will not jeopardize the real key to the game - the defense of Sumatra. So Steve is more than welcome to continue flaunting the KB in CenPac. In fact, I hope he does so for many weeks to come.

One has to consider that his dispositions in the CentPac are indeed nothing more than an attempt to trap you. He is trying to draw you into a fight there to weaken your position and ability to react in the DEI.

Consider this: you have on numerous occasions mentioned the hypothetical upcoming battle for Sumatra. Be careful here as you are in danger of locking your future plans into a strategic situation that may not develop. Worse, he can use your position in Sumatra against you which in my opinion is he second biggest error thus far. The first being that he allowed you to fortify the positions on Sumatra with very little interference. What he could have/should have done is when he realized you had so much combat force concentrated in a small area of the map is bypassed it and struck deep in Australia or elsewhere. Yes, we have discussed how the lack of Palembang's oil/fuel supply will have on the Japanese Economy, but if Steve is careful he can probably still be effective through 1943. The longer he goes without a major move into Sumatra may mean that it is becoming even more likely that he never will attempt it.

He may have decided to only commit enough force in Sumatra to keep you tied down. If that is a strategy he has or is considering, you have to be ready to exploit the opportunity. He has basically refused to engage you in any sort of long term battle of attrition thus far with the possible exception of Pago Pago. I think more so in Scen. 2 than Scen. 1, the Allies really need to get the Japanese to pour their air assets into some sort of meat grinder to whittle down the pilot pool if nothing else. The lack of such a battle has played to your favor so far but eventually you will not only want but need that battle to occur. Basically all you other moves are spoiling attacks at least to this point. That is okay because this is mid 1942 and that is where you need to be.

I guess my point is that you keep waiting for the "Battle of Sumutra" to start. What if it never happens? Then what are you going to do?

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Post #: 1895

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/28/2011 11:38:18 PM

princep01

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vettim, you raise some good points about there never being a battle for S. Sumatra. However, I really think CR has created a situation that gives him the luxury of taking his own good time to really shift to the offensive. Think about it; plan for it; prepare for it....yes, but he doesn't have to DO anything for a good while if he choses. Frankly, he has attrited the IJN CVs so much that I think he COULD shift to an aggressive track to engage and attempt to destroy more of the KB and supporting cast now, but it is not an urgent task and currently would entail some real risks.

Despite this being a Scen 2 game, CR is just going to get stronger and stronger in a relative sense. Look at what Greyjoy is doing in late 43 in his game against a really good player after being in such a hole. It is amazing how powerful the Allies become if they don't squander assets piecemeal. And, my man, CR has been really good at not making that mistake. I cannot say the same for Chez.

So, while I agree with your thoughts to an extent, there is a timing element involved here where we might diverge from one another.

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Post #: 1896

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/29/2011 3:44:39 AM

vettim89

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Princep101

I 100% agree with your point. I was not advocating offensive moves just bringing up the point that if Chez doesn't cooperate by attacking Sumutra, CR needs to have a contingency plan for how he will exploit that opening if it indeed happens. I think his low intensity expansion of his defensive perimeter that is ongoing is perfect for the current situation. The Allied air OOB will change significantly in about five or six months. That is a lot of time to wait for the Allies to cool their heels

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Post #: 1897

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/29/2011 5:29:41 AM

JeffroK

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Given the time, only 8/42, I would be happy to make sure I had a strong position in preperation for a counterpush in 1943.

Thats 4 mths at least to build bases and ports, grab the odd offering and get your forces into position.

There's no rush, you are only getting stronger and Chez still has a powerful force if only he works out what to do with it.

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Post #: 1898

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/29/2011 5:46:11 PM

Canoerebel

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8/19/42

A turn with small but interesting tidbits scattered here and there....

NoPac: Japanese bombings have neutered the Allied fighters and are beginning to register damage to Para's airfield. I'm still four or five days away from inserting 60 or 70 fighters to cover a re-supply run. This situation is dicey.

CenPac: Any thoughts that Chez might give up on his Pacific fixation is dminished by the arrival of Yamato at Tarawa (escorted only by DDs, another sign that Japan is running low on cruisers). I thought there was a decent chance Yamato had moved to the DEI. With her absent, the Allies are strong enough to handle Japanese combat vessels in that vital theater (barring one-sided losses, which do happen on occasion). Yamato bombarded Tarawa, tearing up the fighters based there. KB is still positioned to the east. I like Yamato and KB in CenPac.

SoPac: The IJ army at Pago Pago has suddenly begin bleeding AV on a daily basis. For months, the AV had creeped up to about 820, but over the last few days it has declined to about 780. I'm assuming lack of supply and Allied bombardments are the cause.

DEI: 133 AV of 6th UK Bde. came ashore at Padang unmolested. No enemy air strikes. APDs will bring in a goodly part of an American base force tonight, permitting more efficient air operations out of this base. Allied AV at this base is boosted to 720, which I think will be sufficient to handle what Japan can bring (roughly 1,000 AV in two divisions plus some a few mauled tank units). A big transport TF to carry several US units begins loading at Cochin, India. Up at Aden, transports begin loading to big RAF base forces bound for Toboali and Billiton Island, given time. CA Maya near Semereng targeted by unescorted B-25s out of Oosthaven, which get shredded by CAP. It's possible Steve is sending in the Maya/Kirishima TF to fight it out at Oosthaven. I hope so. :)

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Post #: 1899

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/30/2011 10:36:40 PM

Canoerebel

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8/20/42

NoPac: Chenango's F4F squadron is at Kodiak and should reach Attu Island, the jumping off spot for Para, in three days. That means the push of supplies and reinforcements to Para will take place in four or five days.

CenPac: The Japanese fleet that committed to Pago Pago for nearly four months is now committed up around Tarawa. CA Ashigara led a bombardment group that did light damage to a few merchants there. The Allies have nearly 50k supply at Tarawa - enough to tide things over for quite some time.

SoPac: Erosion to Japanese strength at PP continues - all bombardment damage today resulted in squads destroyed. None were damaged. This suggest that supply is a critically low. The Allies may have won the Pago Pago camapign simply by occupyng Ndeni. That's nice, but Tarawa and vicinity is more important to me than the Gilberts. On the other hand, I can't go toe-to-toe with the bulk of the Imperial Japanese Navy in the Gilberts, so my best course of action is to relax there and take advantage of the "vacuum" elsewhere.

DEI: 6th UK Bde. fully unloaded at Padang without incident. A USN Kingfisher squadron arrived here (thanks to a recent suggestion by NYGiants). This unit came in stages - Pearl to Palmyra to Canton to Tabituea to Ndeni to Palm Island to Darwin to Makassar to Oosthaven. Not all those bases had base force support, but enough to make it. Lots of sub activity here, so I'm hoping this squadron will make its presence known.

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Post #: 1900

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/30/2011 11:31:31 PM

Crackaces

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quote:

but Tarawa and vicinity is more important to me than the Gilberts

Huh?

I thought Tarawa was a part of the Gilberts? Do you mean Tarawa is more important than American Samoa? or New Caledonia?

At least I am reading

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Post #: 1901

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/31/2011 12:09:34 AM

Nemo121

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His time spent with Greyjoy is rubbing off here.

I think when he said Tarawa he probably misspelt Singapore or something

What we really need to watch out for is him telling us not to "misunderestimate" his opponent.

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Post #: 1902

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/31/2011 12:32:35 AM

desicat

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....and once Para is reinforced the Japanese are even more doomed than they already are....

The failure to take the DEI may persuade Chez to resign from the game but if he continues Para will be the gateway to the home islands and cause everything else to be a sideshow. If you want to force the KB into a battle bring your Navy to the Kuriles.

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Post #: 1903

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/31/2011 12:54:06 AM

Canoerebel

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Oops, brain poot on my part. Yes, I meant to say that the Gilberts are more important than American Samoa (under the circumstances in this game).

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Post #: 1904

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/31/2011 1:59:17 AM

GreyJoy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

His time spent with Greyjoy is rubbing off here.

I think when he said Tarawa he probably misspelt Singapore or something

What we really need to watch out for is him telling us not to "misunderestimate" his opponent.

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Post #: 1905

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/31/2011 2:37:42 AM

Crackaces

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oops, brain poot on my part.� Yes, I meant to say that the Gilberts are more important than American Samoa (under the circumstances in this game).

Well I made it very important in my game too

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Post #: 1906

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/31/2011 6:30:42 PM

Canoerebel

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8/21/42

NoPac: Chenango's F4Fs are back aboard, having found that it was more efficient to hop from Kodiak to Attu by making a stop aboard rather than staging to Cold Bay, which doesn't have any base force personnel. This squadron ought to arrive at Attu in two or three days, at which time the Allies will be ready to implement the plan to resupply Paramushiro. I am assuming that Kongo is sitll in theater. It is also possible that Steve has or will shift some carriers up here to deal with Wasp, which he last saw three weeks ago, so I need to be mighty careful with that asset.

NoPac: Dessicat raised the point as to how vital NoPac is in the game. I agree that NoPac is one of the best routes, if negligently attended, to close on Japan proper and implement a strategic bombing campaign. At the same time it is relatively easy for an experienced IJ player to deal with this threat in 1942. Steve should have re-invaded Onne and Para by now, but while his failure to do so is advantageous to the Allies, he has strongly fortified the remaining bases in the area. As a result, even if the Allies hold Para and/or Onne deep into the game it won't be a game winner at this point. While it will force Steve to maintain strong garrisons plus fighter defenses to guard against Allied bombers, those bases are not sufficient to really do meaningful damage to Japanese industry in my experience. Even the B-29 threat is not as strong as you'd think (that's judging from my experience in my game vs. Miller, Bullwinkle's experience in his game, and the comments of some others who have reached late game). So NoPac is an important threat in this game, but in my opinion it isn't a game winner (except to the exetent it distracts Steve from the DEI). In contrast, the Allied hold in the DEI is a game winner. So that is my highest priority.

CenPac: The larger KB detachment - the carriers east of Tarawa - moved closer to that base today and engaged in port strikes which damaged some five or six xAK, one or two xAP, a DD and an AM. He's using howitzers to shoot at sparrows - a diversion which suits me.

SoPac: The Allied transport TFs carrying troops to Oz (and from thence hopefully to Port Moresby and Milne Bay) are sliding past Tahiti, well to the west of the island.

SWPac: Two amphibious TFs at Townsville are each loading Aussie engineer units to take to PM and Milne. I'd rather not draw Steve's attention to these bases right now, but I wish to work on forts, port and airfield facilities well in advance of the arrival of those reinforcements. So, if this move does stir up something, at least it won't jeapardize the major garrison troops that are enroute.

DEI: Both IJ divisions have arrived at Padang, but I don't think Steve has enough to take the base. Meanwhile, he has no troops on the way from Sibolga, meaning that the two small Allied units moving to sever the road link behind his units should be able to do so. The Japanese army at Padang could become isolated with no route of retreat and the closest reinforcements weeks away. Risky behavior. Somebody asked about Allied interior airfields on Sumatra. The Allies are building Djambi, Lahat and Praebemolith, each of which is currently level two.

Burma: The IJ army at Magwe is still recovering after the failed 1:2 attack a few days ago.

China: The Japanese are on the move trying to gauge the sitaution around Sinyang. I don't have enough to take that base, but I am banging on pots and pans trying to confuse the enemy as to the nature and strength of the threat posed.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/31/2011 6:39:03 PM >

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Post #: 1907

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/31/2011 7:09:21 PM

paullus99

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CR - your Chinese troops have gained valuable experience and position & should you be able to open a clear line of supply, it is really going to hurt Chaz in the mid to long-term (if the game lasts that long).

Chaz seems to be determined to do something decisive in the Pacific (maybe) - but you are right in that he has picked the wrong spot. He could push you all the way back to PH, but it won't do a bit of good with Sumatra still firmly in your hands & astride his interior lines. Being in the position to start pulling Brit & Indian troops and pushing them directly into battle in Malaysia (or elsewhere) without having to fight a brutal Burmese campaign is something I've almost never seen before.

Keep up the good work - and keep dotting the i's & crossing the t's.

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Post #: 1908

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 10/31/2011 9:54:44 PM

Canoerebel

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This turn has one of those important decisions that are so common in AE. The situation:

Recon reports a sudden increase in IJ aircraft at Singapore, a level nine airfield. Just a couple of days ago, that base "showed" 54 fighters, 177 bombers and 135 auxillary. Today, it is showing 144 fighters, 125 bombers, and 247 auxillary.

It seems that Steve is preparing for an air assault. I think there are four likely targets: (1) Oosthaven's port with damaged BB Revenge (34/60/4), CA Salt Lake City (51/65/36) and CA Dorsetshire (25/15/5); (2) Allied troops at Padang (hoping for maximum disruption coinciding with a ground attack); (3) Padang's airfield (to shut it down to thus allow a prolonged bombing campaign aginst ground troops); (4) Allied shipping at Padang (but the chicken has already fled the coop - just four xAK with mainly supplies remain at the base).

I think Steve is very skittish about the 500+ fighters at Oosthaven. I also think Padang is his highest priority at the moment. I further think that a stinging repulse of an IJ bombing attack tomorrow would be a big setback for Japan; that Steve likely wouldn't attack any Sumatran bases for quite some time to come.

There is also the possibility that an IJA land attack could take the base, thus wiping out the hundreds of aircraft based there. However, such an outcome is pretty unlikely. This is jungle-rough terrain (x3) defense, three forts, the Allies are fully supplied and Japan probably isn't, and the Allies have 750 AV while Japan only has about 200 more.

Taking all these into consideration, I'm going to transfer a fair number of fighters to Padang - far more than that level four airfield can handle. I currently have 150 fighters there (with 90 base force personnel). I'm going to bump that to about 250 to 300, leaving Oosthaven with something between 300 and 400. This is risky for two reasons: (1) I could lose some capital ships if Steve actually attacks Oosthaven; or (2) if Japan really comes against Padang in force, the Allies could lose the resulting air battle even with 250 fighters in place, thus freeing (and emboldening) Steve to continue and ramp up offensive air operations.

So this is not a clearcut situation. Let's see how it turns out.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/31/2011 10:31:45 PM >

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Post #: 1909

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/1/2011 6:42:52 AM

Ron Saueracker

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Hey CR. Been a while. I see you are still a master of innovation. Amazing to be able to pull off a Fortress Palembang in a PBEM, especially vs a longtime campaigner like Chez. Rock on...

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Post #: 1910

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/1/2011 2:18:27 PM

Canoerebel

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Nothing happened over Padang the following day, showing once again that even the most careful analysis of enemy intentions, followed by elaborate planning and deployment, often turns out to be much ado about nothing.

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Post #: 1911

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/1/2011 3:08:03 PM

ny59giants

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Can you base a couple of BB (Bombardment) TF at Cocos and start to hit his troops at Padang?? I would get some of your Aussie and/or Indian armor units over there to make life miserable for him.

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Post #: 1912

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/1/2011 3:56:54 PM

Canoerebel

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I've thought before about using bombardment runs against IJ troops moving down the coastal road to Padang. AE Shasta is on the way to Cocos (she's about six days away) to support these missions.

I have Aussie, Indian and American armored units at or adjacent to Padang. The latter two are at the base. The Aussies are busy cutting behind the enemy to cut the road and then take the only hexside open to the Japanese units at Padang.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/1/2011 3:57:33 PM >

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Post #: 1913

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/1/2011 4:10:43 PM

Canoerebel

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8/22/42

NoPac: Chenango's squadrons will reach Attu Island in two days, so the operation to insert supply and reinforcements at Para should take place in three days. I'm concerned that Zuikaku and Shokaku could be on the way to this theater. I don't mind losing a bunch of transports, but I'll be very careful with Wasp.

CenPac: A damaged USN DD stumbled across Hiyo and Junyo south of Tarawa; Soryu and Kaga are east of the island. More IJ carrier sorties vs. transports disbanded into port at Tarawa.

SoPac: The two big New Guinea reinforcement convoys are west of Raratonga. They will slide by New Zealand's north cape in ten days or so. The two engineering units bound from Townsville to Port Moresby and Milne Bay should depart tomorrow or the next day.

DEI: I don't know what Steve is doing at Padang. He's islolated a larger army (his) where it can do no good due to the Allied garrison and favorable terrain. If this was an attempt to divert and then pin down a large Allied force it isn't working (since he has more AV there than do the Allies). His army is a long way from home. Its connection to home (a yellow trail) is long and vacant and soon to be severed by Allied units. And his army's only hexside at Padang will be closed by Allied troops in a few days. Which brings to mind another oddity. Steve has held Merak for months now, yet it is still a level one airfield. Since that base is just one hex from Oosthaven, I had expected him to build it large ASAP to help neutralize Oost. Large airfields at Merak and Batavia would make life pretty difficult for the Allies, especially had Japan taken Toabali, Muntok and Billiton, the island bases with big-potential airfields just to the north. Yet none of this has been done.

Burma: The happy stalemate at Magwe continues.

China: Four Chinese corps rough up 116th Division in the open near Sinyang. This is a fruit of the "banging pots and pans campaign" currently going on in this region. I still think Steve's garrisons at Hankow, Sinyang and Chengchow are too strong to take on, but perhaps continued "banging" will flush more victims into the open.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/1/2011 4:12:39 PM >

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Post #: 1914

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/1/2011 5:02:40 PM

ny59giants

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CV Wasp - I hope you have re-sized her fighters. You still have room for one of two options. First, would be to break up a Marine fighter unit (18 planes) and add six more here and on your other American CVs. Second, you have a Wildcat Recon unit (12 planes), that you can break up into 3 x 4 plane units. They have great range to help with actual Recon and/or Naval Search missions.

I sometimes wonder if it best to 'not' resize the American CV fighters from 27 to 36 and instead keep the 18 plane Marine fighters on board through 42. Having 45 fighters per American CV is a nice thing to have.

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Post #: 1915

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/1/2011 6:27:04 PM

Cribtop

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Good to see Ron S back on the boards.

Consider that a big para assault will halve your adjusted AV at Padang. Even taking that into account, I think you win. You could take major advantage of isolating Chez' army there, btw.

Finally, I thought GreyJoy renamed the Cocos Islands as "Coconut Island." Please update your map. If you don't have the necessary info, I recently received a nifty calendar in the mail from the Bank of Scoodra I could pass on to you.

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Post #: 1916

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/1/2011 6:29:50 PM

Canoerebel

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I don't think I've seen GJ refer to Cocos as "Coconut," but Lord knows he's capable of it.

I do know, however, that in his honor my maps shall evermore have an island known as Scoodra off Africa's east coast.

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Post #: 1917

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/1/2011 7:41:35 PM

princep01

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No, no....it comes from this....Friends say, it's all or nothing...take her off to a Coconut Island.....apologies to Counting Crows.

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Post #: 1918

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/2/2011 5:52:06 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ron Saueracker
...I see you are still a master of innovation. Amazing to be able to pull off a Fortress Palembang in a PBEM, especially vs a longtime campaigner like Chez. Rock on...

Thanks, Ron. It's great ot have you back.

For the sake of transparency and honesty, I do need to say that I am not the "master of innovation." I am following in the footsteps of others, primarily Nemo, in the Fortress Palembang defense. In fact, it was a comment by Nemo that prompted me to go down this road.

Coincidentally, I've been jotting down notes in preparation for writing a summary of how Fortress Palembang evolved in this game. I thought a short, comprehensive account might be of interest to newer players. I should have it ready for posting later today or tomorrow.

(in reply to Ron Saueracker)

Post #: 1919

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 11/2/2011 5:54:43 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

CV Wasp - I hope you have re-sized her fighters. You still have room for one of two options. First, would be to break up a Marine fighter unit (18 planes) and add six more here and on your other American CVs. Second, you have a Wildcat Recon unit (12 planes), that you can break up into 3 x 4 plane units. They have great range to help with actual Recon and/or Naval Search missions.

I sometimes wonder if it best to 'not' resize the American CV fighters from 27 to 36 and instead keep the 18 plane Marine fighters on board through 42. Having 45 fighters per American CV is a nice thing to have.

The fighter sqauadrons are re-sized on all (or most) of the American carriers, including Wasp. However, the Marine fighter units were already aboard the carriers in the Indian Ocean from early in the game, so that none were available when Wasp arrived on the scene. So Wasp is carrying just her squadron of 36 F4Fs, which is currently divided between her decks and the airfield at Paramushiro.

(in reply to ny59giants)

Post #: 1920