Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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9/3/42
DEI: Another unit goes to Toboali via fast transport. Billiton airfield reaches level one, an important step in projecting Allied power north of Sumatra. A base force will go there shortly.
Burma: The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.
China: Japan hasn't exposed more units to attack peacemeal, so the Chinese are evaluating options for the next offensive.
NoPac: An IJ CL/DD group tangles with PT boats at Para, sinking two of the latter while one IJ DD takes a torpedo and goes under (I think it's the same DD that hit a mine yesterday). A small supply TF departed Dutch Island and will make the run to Para, escorted by the Quincy TF. No enemy air activity here in several days.
CenPac: IJ bombardment TF including CAs Kinugasa and Ashigara hit Tabituea. Over the past weeks, most of the Japanese navy has been present in this region, including carriers. IJ bombardment TFs have also hit Tarawa and Baker Island in a display of force that, to my way of thinking, accomplishes nothing. I keep looking for a counterinvasion, but nothing to this point.
SoPac: IJ AV at Pago Pago down to 500 as the Dunkirk Operation continues.
SWPac: No signs of detection or alarm at PM or Milne. One of the big transport TFs was detected while putting into Sydney to refuel. It will depart tonight for Townsville. I'll watch closely to see if there are any signs of detection on the way north.
KB: No sign of IJ carriers in a week or two now. They were last committed en masse around Tarawa. Refueling or upgrading are possibilities. My "default concern" will always be to assume they could show up in the DEI if not seen elsewhere, but that fact that so many IJN cruisers are still employed in CenPac offers some comfort.
Analysis of Japanese Threats/Intentions by Theater:
NoPac: The Allies have expected a massive IJN counterinvasion of Para and Onne since taking these islands in late March. No signs of imminent activity here. With just two months remaining until winter shuts down operations, the Allies are in the best shape at Para since the invasion, with 29k supply, good fighter cover, 650 AV, and four forts. An invasion of Para would probably require three to four IJ divisions (less if the campaign were protracted and took advantage of control of the sea and air).
CenPac: The Allies expect a counterinvasion of Ocean, Tarawa, Tabituea, and Ndeni at any point. All four of these have decent garrisons - especially Tarawa with 580 AV, four forts, and 36k supply. The Allies won't oppose any major moves here give naval power disparity, but want to buy time. No move on Baker, Canton, etc. are expected unless and until Japan first deals with Tarawa et al. Ndeni is drawing very little attention from Japan, which is a surprise and a mistake. At some point Japan is likely to deal with this threat even if Steve doesn't decide to move on Tarawa and the islands in its immediate vicinity.
SoPac: Japan is evacuating Pago Pago and fortifying Savaii Island in order to suppress activity at PP. The Allies do not expect any further IJ efforts to take PP. As activity ramps up around the Coral Sea, Japanese activity in the far-flung region around Fiji and Samoa should eventually begin to taper off. This theater is essentially irrelevant.
SWPac: In two weeks, the Allies should have major reinforcements at PM and Milne Bay. At that point, Japan can counter only through major operations of its own. Allied garrisons at PM and Milne Bay on one side of the Coral Sea, and Ndeni on the other side, poses real problems to the IJ positions in New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa. More importantly, they pose a threat to New Georgia and New Guinea. So, the Allies believe Japan will soon (or eventually, at best) react violently to the situation developing in this region. As New Guinea waxes, Fiji and more remote outposts should wane.
DEI: Is Japan ever going to attack Sumatra? We can't know for sure, but we do know that Japan can't attack - at least in a way that would be meaningful - without the KB and other capital ships present. The Aliles are currently pouring reinforcements into Sumatra, with those forces slowly trickling north to Billiton, Toabali and other bases. Even if Japan doesn't go on the offensive, very soon it will have to take aggressive defensive action to stop the Allied encroachment. Of necessity, Japan will have to concentrate on the DEI soon. The question is whether Steve will try to first deal with NoPac, CenPac, and New Guinea.
Burma: Currently there is a "Happy Stalemate" in Burma. Japan can more easily reinforce and supply, so at some point this may change. But at present, the Allies probably have sufficient reserves to maintain the stalemate even against an additional IJA division.
China: The Chinese have done a good job of roughing up multiple IJA divisions over the past five months, though the pace has slackened considerably as the IJ army now remains clustered in strongly fortified base hexes. The Chinese do not believe Japan has the ability at this point to prosecute a major offensive that would threaten the Chinese MLR. The Chinese do expect an attack along the southern end of the MLR (the Nanning to Kweilin sector), but are confident that it will be repulsed.
Summary: Japan will do one of two things: pull most naval power back to the DEI to deal with Sumatra, or keep the navy in the Pacific to deal with NoPac, CenPac and New Guinea. Japan remains a potent military power, but attrition to its capital ships limits its ability to fight on more than one front at a time effectively. Thus, the Allied plan will continue to be to give Japan problems on so many fronts that they can't be handled.
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/15/2011 3:35:48 PM >
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 
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