Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002 From: Northwestern Georgia, USA Status: offline
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My suspicion is that Steve is still cautiously on the offensive in many theaters - Burma, NoPac, and CenPac in particular. I think he has identified the Pacific as a region where he has achieved local superiority of forces, and I think he likes the comfort level of fighting in an area where he has control rather than venturing into waters where he doesn't (the DEI). I am pretty sure he will attempt something in NoPac before winter, and I expect efforts to take (or at least surround) Tarawa, Tabituea, and Ndeni. I think he has concluded (or soon will conclude) that he isn't going any further in SoPac. This will probably increase once he discovers Allied activity at PM and Milne Bay. The Allies have currently "shot their wad" in the Pacific - I've utilized most of my available troops in probing and taking advance bases all over the place. At present, my strategy in this region is to continue occupying and building bases that are currently vacant but still controlled by the Allies. In addition to those already mentioned, Horn Island, Merauke, and eventually, if still possible, bases northwest and north of Darwin. The Allies are sending troops from India to reinforce Upper Burma, so the Allies intend to continue fighting for possession of this position. But the real Allied push will come out of Sumatra. The Allies are in the process of a massive shifting of troops from India to Oosthaven. From there, I am feeding them forward to the islands between Sumatra and Borneo. If Steve fails to respond adequately, the next step will be to move on Ketapang (under Allied control right now) and Singkawang (held by Japan). The Allied position in Sumatra - land, air and sea - is very strong at the moment; but imagine how strong it will be in coming months as most reinforcements are committed there. Allied power really begins grow in late '42, so the Allies are in great position to probe north from Sumatra unless Japan acts quickly to establish an MLR; and that's something Steve doesn't seem to be attending to as he continues to look for offensive opportunities.
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