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Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat

 
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Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/10/2011 4:25:58 AM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		A preview of turn 9, since turns are slowing down due to other committments of my opponent. I don't worry about any sort of advantage gained by showing these, it seems rather obvious what I tried (and basically failed) at

In a fit of undeserved optimism and rare planning skills, I worked the last 3 or 4 turns to trying to do the "Kiev Pocket" routine. One of the reasons I rode the Panzers down the Dnepr was to get below where the 2nd Panzer Group was waiting to strike south. Sadly, Hurrying Heinz had problems, the battles around Smolensk robbed his units of vitality and ability - worse, one Panzer Corps was so far out of position they would have been better suited dashing to Leningrad...Heinz could not ketchup.

Still, as seen in the pictures last turn the initial breakthrough to the south was made by 2nd Panzer while the 1st crossed the Dnepr with units waiting behind. Turn 8 showed promise, but I feared that I had struck too slowly and too late.

Turn 9 came and 1st Panzer group drove north as hard as they could. Even Goering's unlimited supplies of fuel did not help too much, and the drive came up far short of half way. It was up to Heinz, and he did his best. The direct route was blocked, so a strike to the east then south was made. However, both north and south bled units all the way protecting protenital counter-strike routes at the neck of the breakthroughs. The final "meeting" was one lone motorized (29th) crossing the gap and sort of making a pocket.

It won't hold, but it will do some damage. Hexes inside will be converted, the marshes will turn to glorious german control, and maybe in a turn or two I can actually pocket some units. If anything, it keeps momentum in my corner...

The Southern drive north:




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by PeeDeeAitch -- 3/10/2011 4:26:45 AM >

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

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Post #: 91
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/10/2011 4:26:57 AM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		The Northern drive south:





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_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

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Post #: 92
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/10/2011 2:01:39 PM   
Klydon


Posts: 2251
Joined: 11/28/2010
Status: offline 		Now that is a pocket! Hehe. I think it was worth your time to pull that. If nothing else, it should lever him off the river line. The hard part is you probably don't have enough infantry to start the clean up behind fast enough. He will break the encirclement, but has to know you should be able to reestablish it so it will be interesting to see what he does as a reaction.

Very much likely a "oh sh**" moment when he opens up his turn.

(in reply to PeeDeeAitch)
Post #: 93
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/10/2011 2:08:29 PM   
Aussiematto

 

Posts: 344
Joined: 2/13/2011
From: Australia
Status: offline 		I agree - I think too much is made of whether or not pockets hold. Sure, at times, you really want to capture those units, so you must be certain the pocket is unbreakable. However, in the more advanced of my current games (first PBEM) I have found the threat of a pocket is often sufficient to achieve the real aim - moving those defenders back a way. Similarly, a very wide corridor of Axis hexes, even if not held, can create the conditions for much alarm and make the Soviet player expend all their resources in breaking the pocket.

It's a bit like a fork in chess - you have two aims - surround the units, or force the defender to react. Either way, his defence is reacting to your attack which, I think, is currently understood as getting 'inside' the defender's decision making loop. Not sure what the op doctrine in WWII / GPW was.

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Post #: 94
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/10/2011 2:32:20 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		I think that a "perfect pocket" (well, other than 2nd ACR's...) doesn't exist. To try for that is means headaches - see my sig from the Big N - and it is better to set up a pocket on the first few turns.

I think this one is too easily broken, and many will flee, but the Dnepr is mine and all his lovely entrenchments will be gone. I did have the plan to have 2nd Army clean up from the north, 6th from the south, but it is rather big if it held - perhaps it is better that it causes a mass relocation.

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

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Post #: 95
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/10/2011 3:49:44 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: majeloz
It's a bit like a fork in chess - you have two aims - surround the units, or force the defender to react. Either way, his defence is reacting to your attack which, I think, is currently understood as getting 'inside' the defender's decision making loop. Not sure what the op doctrine in WWII / GPW was.


I prefer Forrest's terminology: "Put the skeer in them."

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

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Post #: 96
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/10/2011 4:08:37 PM   
timmyab

 

Posts: 2044
Joined: 12/14/2010
From: Bristol, UK
Status: offline 		If you want to lose this war and be on that plane to Argentina, you need to try harder.

< Message edited by timmyab -- 3/10/2011 4:09:15 PM >

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Post #: 97
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/10/2011 10:41:21 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		Sadly it looks like no turn again today. I want to play. Maybe I will have to sacrifice 2nd ACR.

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

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Post #: 98
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/11/2011 12:15:17 AM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5521
Joined: 4/1/2004
From: The Zone™
Status: offline 		Amazing pocket There could be minimum 40 units or even more there! If I well understood you recreated the German pocket near Kiev! This front should collapse.

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Post #: 99
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/11/2011 12:46:14 AM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		Well, it is only 3 hexes wide, so it should fall apart unless a lot of new hexes are added due to the isolation rules.  Still, I think there is a fair chance to re-close it the next turn.

In my screenies from the last turn, I make out 55-60 combat units and another 10-15 HQs and airbases in there. If I get half of them and start driving again, I am happy.

In all seriousness, and I know that ruins the thread, I blew it slightly here. I planned this for 3 turns (the Smolensk dash was to set this up and make my opponent think I was heading to Moscow early, but I couldn't close that and my panzers took damage and wear. In the south I had to drive (and fight) a lot further than I expected, so again the panzers and motorized were blown/low on fuel. Had I closed this, it might have turned the game - 500k troops captured, most of them trained and having been sitting there for a few weeks to flesh out would have done wonders. As it is, I can expect half of that. It may ultimately turn out to be a gigantic waste of resources.

< Message edited by PeeDeeAitch -- 3/11/2011 12:52:48 AM >

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)
Post #: 100
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/11/2011 12:58:08 AM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		The North - Turn 9

I think that my decorating of the tanks with festive "I visited Latvia!" stickers and kitschy tourist items has lulled the Soviets into a false sense of security. Their dialectic surely led them to believe we were simply bourgeoise vacationers and not an army. Certainly, our behavior of loot, pillage, and plunder reinforced this as we seemed perhaps to be English Football Fans.

Whatever the case, the breakthrough on the Volkhov was shored up. We lack enough forces here (this is why eliminating the Novgorod Pocket is vital), but the way to the Finnish Border is far easier now. Victory is just around the corner, I will be in Murmansk by January! (that is a nice warm town, right?)

SitMapNorthLocTurn9





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< Message edited by PeeDeeAitch -- 3/11/2011 1:00:23 AM >

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

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Post #: 101
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/11/2011 10:28:39 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		Turn 10 Teaser Pic

Got a turn done, that is good. Shored up the Kiev Pocket, even better. Perhaps 50-60 units still there.





-edit- wrong turn!

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by PeeDeeAitch -- 3/12/2011 12:25:47 AM >

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

(in reply to PeeDeeAitch)
Post #: 102
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/11/2011 10:54:43 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Your turn 10 looks a bit different than mine. Can't post mine now.....

/sulk






< Message edited by Senno -- 3/11/2011 10:57:37 PM >

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Post #: 103
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/11/2011 10:57:52 PM   
Texas D


Posts: 121
Joined: 10/21/2006
From: Republic of Texas
Status: offline 		Thats a very nice pocket you got there.

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Post #: 104
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/11/2011 11:28:17 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Wow, I count at least 59 combat units, (though a bunch of those are airborne brigades, not full divisions). Quite a haul. I am afraid this will delay your loss for a while.

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Post #: 105
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/11/2011 11:51:09 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Until mid 1942, at least.

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Post #: 106
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/11/2011 11:59:46 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		Don't doubt me, I can screw this up WAY before middle 1942!

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 107
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/12/2011 12:13:26 AM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		Turn 10 North

My "Tourists" of the 4th Panzer Group met obstacles in the form of toll collectors, boring historic sites, and locals whose "shortcuts" turned out to be left turns at Albuquerque. Still, the Novgorod pocket was eliminated, and the push toward Tikhvin continued. 2 of the 3 ports have fallen. It seems my opponant thought I would push harder at the western approached to Leningrad, but I was more interested in seeing my own special formula: panzers+swamps=fun!





Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

(in reply to PeeDeeAitch)
Post #: 108
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/12/2011 12:17:23 AM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		Turn 10 Center

Hoth was quite upset that Guderian got to play, he thought his 2 weeks of rest were some kind of punishment. However, my lord, I had a cunning plan. Hoth struck toward Rhzev, and ended the turn with the farthest patrols only 60 miles from Moscow.

I knew it! One good strong kick, and the whole rotten ediface will come tumbling down. I expect there are no reserves left for the Soviets, from here on in it will just be mopping up...oh, and I also am going ahead with plans to always have Romanians on the flanks of any deep drive, never use mobile defense, and to relieve commanders who merely displease me.






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_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

(in reply to PeeDeeAitch)
Post #: 109
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/12/2011 12:27:41 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		I keep reading Ivanovo as Ivanhoe. Then, start thinking of good books instead of playing effectively.

You seem to not have fallen for that potential devious distraction on the Soviets part? You don't fall for their maskirovka at all.

It's really bad for me when I mix Hoth, with the Planet Hoth of Star Wars Fame....

< Message edited by Senno -- 3/12/2011 12:29:00 AM >

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Post #: 110
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/12/2011 12:30:35 AM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		Me?  I am always worried about the "Mecha River" south of Vilikie Luki.  I didn't know the Soviet had giant armored walkers...

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 111
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/12/2011 12:34:06 AM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5521
Joined: 4/1/2004
From: The Zone™
Status: offline 		PeeDeeAitch, you're doing very well As others have said you will have to make more efforts if you want to screw your game and end up in Argentina

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Post #: 112
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/12/2011 1:12:28 AM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch

Me?  I am always worried about the "Mecha River" south of Vilikie Luki.  I didn't know the Soviet had giant armored walkers...



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Post #: 113
RE: Chaos out of Order: Balck-ing at defeat - 3/12/2011 1:43:50 AM   
Mynok


Posts: 12108
Joined: 11/30/2002
Status: offline
You're in good shape! The back door of Leningrad is ready to fall. Pummel them incessantly with full arty support and bomb them viciously.


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"Measure civilization by the ability of citizens to mock government with impunity" -- Unknown

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Post #: 114
Boring Interlude - Stats and Stuff - 3/12/2011 7:15:48 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		I know, I know...this AAR is about my systematic plan to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It is not about "planning" or "strategy" or other nonsense. Still, I figure I should show that even in the darkest AAR some light can shine. I am the broken clock, right a couple of times...but I am more like a broken century clock - right once in my life then useless from then on.

First of all , the OOB for turn 11. Note that I am whittling down the Soviets. Note that I am getting overconfident. Mark this for later...






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_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

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Post #: 115
RE: Boring Interlude - Stats and Stuff - 3/12/2011 7:17:57 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		Now the casualties from this turn (11), and the results of the first turn breaking down the big Kiev Pocket. It will take at least another turn to fully finish it off, but this is about "halfsies" so far:






As of turn 11, the 1.77 million captured and 427k KIA are what I need to continue. I keep saying "audacity" and that I have to disregard counter-attacks and worn down panzers, etc - this is what I mean. Sure the mobile units will be in sorry shape by Oct, but that is the time they will be heading to winter quarters.

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< Message edited by PeeDeeAitch -- 3/12/2011 7:20:03 PM >

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

(in reply to PeeDeeAitch)
Post #: 116
RE: Boring Interlude - Stats and Stuff - 3/12/2011 7:21:45 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		Destroyed units. Here is the meat. As you can see, beyond the initial pockets I have tried to do "bounds" and cause surrenders every few turns. Turn 11 (and 12) will be big again, but the next few will be interesting as Leningrad will start to yield surrenders starting turn 12 or 13 as well...





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_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

(in reply to PeeDeeAitch)
Post #: 117
Panzer Bubbles - A Study of the Mis-Employment of Armor - 3/12/2011 7:34:09 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		There was quite a party in Karelia on turn 11. The dash across the Volkhov and the isolation of 15 divisions at Novgorod left the North terribly vulnerable. Added in with the "Dash to Moscow" in the Center, the losses in the Kiev Pocket, and my winning smile all made my opponent pull back to preserve units. The Karelian Finns began moving south toward yet another mysterious dotted line on the landscape. The final port had not been garrisoned well, and would have been attacked by 2 full German Divisions with pioneres on turn 11 (in a deliberate attack), so I do not blame this "better part of valor" here.

However, Leningrad is doomed. The 18th Army gets a ton of artiller reinforcements, and three full stacks on the Eastern approaches wait for turn 12 and the start of the surrenders here. Meanwhile, 4th Panzer is now on the railheads...are they going to the South? Are they going to the Center? Are they going to invade Turkey and outflank the Caucasus in 1942 (oh wait, that was my plan in Third Reich)...

As I need the Iron to build more pratical things like transports for my planned "1st Female Swimwear Motorcycle Assault Unit" all the soldiers in the North have been given Lead Crosses, 2nd class.





Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

(in reply to PeeDeeAitch)
Post #: 118
RE: Panzer Bubbles - A Study of the Mis-Employment of A... - 3/12/2011 11:49:14 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		Impressive

Very impressive

And you are trying to lose?

I'm not sure that I'd like to play you when you've decided to go for the win!

_____________________________


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Post #: 119
RE: Panzer Bubbles - A Study of the Mis-Employment of A... - 3/13/2011 7:35:41 AM   
randallw

 

Posts: 2057
Joined: 9/2/2010
Status: offline 		Impressive amount of Soviet tanks wiped out; sure, they're just flimsy pieces of metal waiting to be torn assunder, but it's still good.

(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 120
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