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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

 
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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/26/2012 11:31:20 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		I think you will be in good shape then. Once Changsha and area fall you'll have the Chinese supply situation on life support. I'd still recommend Kweiyang at some point though, even if stalemate. That should give you Chihkiang and Changteh as well. If your end desire is to draw out LCU's for the Pacific, then taking the Kweiyang, Chihkiang and Changteh bases could shorten your front considerably if CF withdraws towards Chungking. Taking Patung shortens it even further. If I hadn't tried the river assault against a large Chinese force in my game and attacked in a more direct way, I might seriously have the Chinese down for the count.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/27/2012 11:34:43 AM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		I like Furgesson Island near Milne Bay to build up and then place an Air HQ to cover those bases. Build to size 4 AF to allow bomb loads to max out. Those bases can only be closed by 4e bombers, but having a few of those five bases built up means he cannot close you down. This will keep you free of any warships headed from Australia to Port Moresby.

China - Bomb AFs; Lather, Rinse, Repeat!!
Logistics...Logistics...Logistics

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 6:47:45 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline 		Cribtop.

Rescuing you from the ignomy of page 2. Also that I have now read the AAR. I know, no need to profusely thank me, a quiet doffing of the hat will suffice.

The discussion about destruction of supply conducted back on page 37 is wrong. Almost a year ago the calculation was changed.

The old calculation was based on hits causing a fixed destruction quantum based on a unified bomb size. That was the basis of the old classical WITP 1% loss rate. The new loss rate is based on a random number and the particular ordnance dropped. Thus the effect and anti-soft ratings of the actual bomb dropped now, together with the die roll, provide a variable destruction quantum.

As a rough rule of thumb, if you inflict multiple supply hits with large bombs (not with puny 60kg Val bombs) you might consider that the entire day's base bombing inflicted approximately a 1% supply destruction. But each of those individual multiple supply hits definitely does not produce a fixed 1% supply destruction quantum. Unless maybe you are dropping 1000 kg sized bombs (which are probably not in the Empire's arsenal) and you get good die rolls.

Alfred

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Post #: 1173
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 7:15:27 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Cribtop.

Rescuing you from the ignomy of page 2. Also that I have now read the AAR. I know, no need to profusely thank me, a quiet doffing of the hat will suffice.

The discussion about destruction of supply conducted back on page 37 is wrong. Almost a year ago the calculation was changed.

The old calculation was based on hits causing a fixed destruction quantum based on a unified bomb size. That was the basis of the old classical WITP 1% loss rate. The new loss rate is based on a random number and the particular ordnance dropped. Thus the effect and anti-soft ratings of the actual bomb dropped now, together with the die roll, provide a variable destruction quantum.

As a rough rule of thumb, if you inflict multiple supply hits with large bombs (not with puny 60kg Val bombs) you might consider that the entire day's base bombing inflicted approximately a 1% supply destruction. But each of those individual multiple supply hits definitely does not produce a fixed 1% supply destruction quantum. Unless maybe you are dropping 1000 kg sized bombs (which are probably not in the Empire's arsenal) and you get good die rolls.

Alfred


So although I'm getting a lot of hits with the IJN bombers, it may not be doing much as they drop 2 250kg bombs and 4 60kg bombs. In fact the Sallys would kill supply better, even though they may not get as many hits?

Just out of curiosity, I wonder what a 250kg bomb would do on average? What would the calculation be and what would be the range of damage in supply points? This of course won't change my bombing strategy, just might help me asses what affect it's having on the enemy.

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Post #: 1174
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 9:53:21 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Excellent info, Alfred - many thanks. Consider the hat doffed.

The new calculation is more realistic, and as you point out it will be harder for the Sons of Nippon to kill supply than those nasty allies with their big bombs and bombers.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 9:55:17 PM   
Grfin Zeppelin


Posts: 1515
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Germany
Status: offline 		Final nail in the Lily coffin I say.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 10:00:25 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		wrong spot- sorry

< Message edited by obvert -- 1/28/2012 10:14:03 PM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 10:06:30 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		July 30, 1942

The race for Hengyang continues.

Subs

Near Victoria Point, S-41 misses a supply xAK bound for Rangoon. Lucky for us.

4th Fleet

A Naval Guard unit loads at Tokyo for TB.

SE Fleet

Ndeni is reconned. Looks like CF is casting a broad net, in part perhaps to confuse us, but in part because he just doesn't have any knowledge of our dispositions.

14th Army

Operation Killshot forces will hit the beaches at Lingayan tomorrow. It feels like December '41 all over again. Speed is the key to this. Enemy AS is down from 1500 to 725 at Clark Field, so it shouldn't take long.

16th Army

Obi invaded. No enemy air flies in NW Oz. Further, there is still no move arrow visible on the enemy armor. Is this a bluff?

Cribtop HQ orders a small counter-op. We note that the second brigade of 21st Division has almost joined its fellows at Daly (the final brigade is at Darwin in reserve). We could probably spare 2 tank regiments from the front lines to move down the yellow road east out of sight, then double back overland to Tennant Creek, which appears to be very lightly held. That ought to shake the enemy up a bit.

25th Army

Bangkok makes level 6 airfield and will go on to 7.

15th Army

2nd Raiding regiment is flown into Ramree Island to bolster its defenses. The regiment freed up from the Central PI will also move here. 55th Division and 1st Raiding Regiment are in theater reserve in Rangoon, ready to be railed or flown into any threatened point.

China

Our bombers fly against both enemy stacks, which is good. Many of the enemy units move into the hex just SW of Hengyang today, but that was expected as our air had already delayed them several days on a good road. 17th Army will march into the Hengyang hex with movement to spare tomorrow. We must force the enemy to take 3 days to get into the hex, rather than 2. Tomorrow a big Oscar group will LRCAP 17th Army while every bomber in China (no exaggeration) hits the hex SW of Hengyang. We also decide to order the two tank regiments already in the hex to DA tomorrow. We don't expect them to take the hex, but given the relative imperviousness of armor to Chinese units, we figure the attack will probably drop forts and rough up the enemy.

Paratroops take an empty Nanning. It will interesting to see whether materials begin to flow over the now open road net to Manchuria and Korea.

The enemy stack near Wuchow, no doubt realizing the danger of encirclement, has begun to withdraw down the road to (IJA occupied) Kuknong. Our blocking force will divide up, with the brigade moving to garrison Kweilin while the division follows the retreating enemy with the intention of eventually joining the main battle near Changsha. The next 48 hours will tell the tale of this phase. Possible results include capture of Hengyang with all enemy forces across the river, the enemy beating us into Hengyang, making the battle for that city protracted, or a weird simultaneous event with an IJA DA on the same turn as a Chinese SA as they cross the river. Not sure how this will play out, but we believe we have a 65% chance of taking Hengyang first. Basically our bombers need to cause one day's delay and we should take it.

Kiukiang makes level 6 forts.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 1/28/2012 10:21:07 PM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 10:21:59 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

Final nail in the Lily coffin I say.


+1

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 10:31:51 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

Final nail in the Lily coffin I say.


+1


Yeah and I feel for those who are playing PDU off and have to use the Sonia even more now. I did think that with 4 tiny little bombs at least they could get a lot of hits. This kills that idea.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 10:42:55 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		July 31, 1942

Nailbiting time in China, but so far so good.

Subs

No contacts, although there appears to be a CL approaching our wolf pack near Sydney. We shifted from the channel near Tasmania due to a "heavy volume" intercept there.

4th Fleet

ALERT!

Two enemy SCTFs, one of primarily CLs with another showing 3 BB and 1 CA, are spotted 1 hex west of Baker Island. Bettys on search from TB spot them and attempt a strike, but as usual at ranges over 10 hexes they fail to connect. Is this a probe (seems too heavy), a bombardment mission or even an FT TF invasion? We don't know, but will shift more Netties to TB tomorrow in an attempt to get an attack. We are not concerned about a bombardment on TB itself tomorrow night as the enemy is still 12 hexes out.

South Seas Fleet at Truk is ordered to move toward the Marshalls in case an intercept is warranted. For tomorrow, MKB will remain in place, but they are given a warning order in case this is a full on invasion. We will not contest conquest of Baker or Howland Islands, but will resist any attempt at a lodgement in the Marshalls or Gilberts.

SE Fleet

As mentioned, we are planning to sail east with the surface fleet. We will not engage until we know what we're up against, but need to be in position.

Meruake makes level 3 airfield.

14th Army

We begin to unload at Lingayen.

16th Army

Obi occupied.

In Oz, we are watching the enemy armor and moving to flank as detailed in the last update.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

No change.

China

Despite predicted thunderstorms, all our planes fly against the enemy SW of Hengyang. Total damage over three attacks is 869(6). More important than the casualties is the number of enemy LCUs slowed, which appears to be numerous.

17th Army arrives in the Hengyang hex without enduring enemy air attack. Interestingly, its artillery, without orders, assists the two tank regiments on DA. The results are very positive, with odds 1:1 (by one point of adjusted AV, hehe. ) and forts are dropped to zero. Casualties are 519(6) vs 7(1). Tanks go throught the KMT like buttah.

It's really simple. Tomorrow we will DA Hengyang with the whole 17th Army stack. All bombers will continue to focus on the approaching enemy. If we successfully delay enough of them, Hengyang will fall tomorrow and the enemy will be caught on the wrong side of the river. If the enemy moves into the hex, this will be more interesting. Cribtop HQ is sincerely hoping for boredom.

We BA the remaining enemy unit near Wuchow (77, 56) for recon purposes. Raw AS is 613 to 348. This enemy unit shows a move arrow toward Kukong today, so our assumption it might stay as a rear guard appears to be incorrect. It's just lagging.

Other

Pilots in TRACOM (primarily there as an elite reserve) make themselves useful by advancing 124 IJA and 114 IJN pilots. Nice.



< Message edited by Cribtop -- 1/28/2012 10:45:52 PM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 10:44:51 PM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

Final nail in the Lily coffin I say.


+1


Yeah and I feel for those who are playing PDU off and have to use the Sonia even more now. I did think that with 4 tiny little bombs at least they could get a lot of hits. This kills that idea.


For all three posters identified above, the answer is not quite as clear cut. Well you don't really expect AE to have simple answers to complex questions, did you?

Before you all rush off to attend the funerals of Lilys and Sonias, consider the following thread, in particular post #7 (ah yes, another shameless plug for my own forum contributions).

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3018738

For most things flying planes with bigger bombs will usually be best. But value can still be had using planes with smaller ordnance. It means paying close attention to what is the primary mission objective and choosing to fly a plane adequately equipped for the task.

Alfred

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 10:47:11 PM   
Grfin Zeppelin


Posts: 1515
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Germany
Status: offline 		Thats too technical for me, from now on I will only produce green planes because I like their colour.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 10:52:30 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Thanks, Alfred. I went and read your post and it was very useful.

GZ's post about green planes reminds of something a friend said he read (so I'm sure it's accurate).

Supposedly, the US Army was impressed by German flak's ability to immediately ID and fire on Allied planes, without a delay caused by ensuring they would not engage in friendly fire. In post-war interviews, they asked German flak unit veterans how they were so good at recognition of the target's status.

The answer: "Simple, if the plane was silver, it was American. If it was brown, British. If it was invisible, it was German."

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 1/28/2012 10:55:40 PM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 10:59:40 PM   
Grfin Zeppelin


Posts: 1515
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Germany
Status: offline 		Haha thats a nice story. To bad my grandfather isnt alive anymore. He was a flak gunner at the eastern front, could have asked him.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/28/2012 11:07:44 PM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

July 31, 1942

... We will not contest conquest of Baker or Howland Islands, but will resist any attempt at a lodgement in the Marshalls or Gilberts...



Explain exactly what you mean by resisting a Marshalls/Gilberts lodgement.

Most of the islands in the area have stacking limits, mainly of the 6k variety. Assuming you already have garrisons nudging the stacking limit, that means the enemy would need to land a force far in excess of the stacking limit. That isn't a real problem for the invaders in the immediate shock attack; it is a problem subsequently which can only be addressed by reembarking the excess troops or by constantly sending in supply convoys.

Bottom line is that 6k limit atolls cannot be held unless sea and air supremacy over the surrounding area is held. Therefore if the Allies capture a single atoll, it could be very advantageous to simply reinvade subsequently. That way you kill the Allied garrison and probably resupply/reembarkation vessels too.

Which is why if the Allied target is Baker or Howland you should consider that an opportunity for a subsequent counter invasion.

Of course timing is the key.

Alfred

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Post #: 1186
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/29/2012 12:17:10 AM   
Mike Solli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

Haha thats a nice story. To bad my grandfather isnt alive anymore. He was a flak gunner at the eastern front, could have asked him.


Wow, did you ever get him to talk about it at all? That would have been some amazing stories.

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Post #: 1187
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/29/2012 2:22:10 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		@ GZ - wow, I agree with Mike. I bet your grandfather had some amazing stories.

@ Alfred - I think resistance means employing air and naval power (appropriately, one hopes) to combat the enemy. We have TB and Tarawa garrisoned well (TB is a 30K island, Tarawa a 6K). Under the right circumstances, we could employ the theater reserve (all or part of 20th Division and an tank unit) to counterinvade. I guess the point is do I really want to counterinvade ungarrisoned Baker or Howland. They are 0(0) airfields, and I wonder whether re-invading every outpost CF goes for is practical. If they were bigger airfield SPS bases it might be different. Thoughts welcome of course. It is true that Allied power is still minimal, and thus you could argue that counter-attacking wherever they go at this stage is advisable.


< Message edited by Cribtop -- 1/29/2012 2:23:17 AM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/29/2012 5:39:21 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Well, the turn is away. Tomorrow should be a very interesting replay in China and near Howland/Baker Islands. Further analysis of intel shows that the smaller SCTF contains 3 CL, 1 CLAA, 1 PG and 1 AMC. Looks like a snap invasion to me. Even the Allies will have to work to build up a 0(0) base, though. In China, if our bombers fly and slow the enemy up, we will win a solid victory at Hengyang, leaving the KMT's retreating southern armies in a real pickle.

On a sad note, I must mourn the loss of a good friend. As some of you know, my handle Cribtop comes from the "Cribtop Gaming Society," formed by my friends and I during my brief sojourn to Dallas. Our first game together was WWII miniatures, but all we had for a game table was an old baby crib my friend Alex turned upside down and covered in felt and terrain. We got a much better table, but the name stuck.

One of the members of the CGS was Joseph Palermo, a proud Italian American who could always be counted on to play with a smile, win or lose. A fantastic guy, probably not too much older than me. I regret that he passed away unexpectedly of an apparent heart attack a few days ago. He will be missed. R.I.P. old friend. I'm sure they'll let you play the Italian side in heaven.


< Message edited by Cribtop -- 1/29/2012 5:40:22 AM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/29/2012 1:20:23 PM   
Mike Solli


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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		And in Heaven, the Italian side might even win! I'm sad for your loss.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/29/2012 1:59:55 PM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

@ Alfred - I think resistance means employing air and naval power (appropriately, one hopes) to combat the enemy. We have TB and Tarawa garrisoned well (TB is a 30K island, Tarawa a 6K). Under the right circumstances, we could employ the theater reserve (all or part of 20th Division and an tank unit) to counterinvade. I guess the point is do I really want to counterinvade ungarrisoned Baker or Howland. They are 0(0) airfields, and I wonder whether re-invading every outpost CF goes for is practical. If they were bigger airfield SPS bases it might be different. Thoughts welcome of course. It is true that Allied power is still minimal, and thus you could argue that counter-attacking wherever they go at this stage is advisable.



That view of resistance, employing your current tactical superiority, is fine. For the essential point about operating in the central Pacific is not real estate but maintaining air and sea control of the LOCs.

In that vein I'm not recommending you stay on those 0,0 dot bases of Baker and Howland. Merely visit for a picnic, for lunch consume the tasty Allied morsal left behind, and then reembark back to terra nipponese. Doing all this there is harder than doing it where you have complete unfetter control of the LOCs back in the Marshalls/Gilberts so your options are less.

Alfred

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/29/2012 8:16:37 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		August 1, 1942

Big happenings today. 2 out of 3 go our way, and even the third ain't all bad.

Thought about doing a 1st person, but there is just too much to cover.

Subs

Tarpon duds on a DD in the LCTF accompanying South Seas Fleet east of Truk. Fortunately, the enemy only gets intel on a few CLs instead of the Yamato BB/CA SCTF.

4th Fleet

The enemy invades Baker, an unoccupied atoll, as though it's the Normandy beaches! BBs New Mexico and Idaho, along with CA Vincennes, bombard the base. Then elements of the Marine Raider Battalion land. Before the inevitable conquest, our Netties at TB spot numerous non-CV TFs just west of Baker, probably providing surface cover. The AM raid can't locate the target, but this is a blessing in disguise. In the PM phase, 14 Bettys escorted by 22 Zeros attack an SCTF just west of Baker. The brave escorts fight against a massive LRCAP of 80 Wildcats. This means that CF has committed the entire USN CV fleet to the Op. We lose 14 Zeros and 10 Bettys. 5 Bettys get through to drop against BB North Carolina and CA Chicago, but no hits. Did I mention CF brought the kitchen sink on this? Needless to say, empty Baker Island is 100% trashed by the bombardment and then taken in the ground combat phase. The Marines only have 10 adjusted AV, though. We will send various supply and resource TFs in the area scuttling for cover, and will even pull our planes back from TB for a time. There's every likelihood that CF will swing by the base with his carriers on the way out.

This attack, IMHO, was overkill by Cuttles. He committed the vast majority of his fleet, and in doing so revealed its location. This gives Cribtop HQ the comfort level to send Combined Fleet to Truk. We assume that CF wants Baker as an outpost for reconning the Gilberts. It's a 0(0) port but a 1(0) airfield.

This could be a very interesting development. We may see something we haven't in AE in a long time. Namely an Allied advance via SOPAC and SWPAC a la history. We will also watch to determine whether CF plans to hit multiple targets or just Baker.

SE Fleet

Given events at Baker, South Seas Fleet needs to avoid enemy CVs. They will loiter west of the Marshalls, awaiting an opportunity to act and/or the arrival of Combined Fleet.

14th Army

The first wave is ashore at Lingayen. The second lands in a few days. We will finish this quickly and get the troops to the Pacific and DEI.

16th Army

A great day in the skies over Daly Waters. CF sends 20 B-17s to hit the base. We guessed right and had the Nicks on LRCAP. They shoot down 3(!) B-17s outright and another 2 don't make it home! Banzai! No way can the enemy sustain 25% losses with the 4Es.

DA 67, 104 in Celebes destroys the former Makassar garrison. One more base to clean up here, then Mataram, then a few more DBCLs.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

We can't seem to fly the 9 IJA Engineer squads of 2nd Raiding Regt into Ramree Island. Odd that part of a paratroop unit can't seem to paradrop. Is there a plane big enough for them or do we need to build an airfield at Ramree?

China

Our bombers fly and do a marvelous job, hitting many enemy LCUs, thus slowing them down.

We hold our breath for the combat replay and are thrilled to find that only 3 non-combat units (2 HQs and a construction engineer) made it over the river. Thus, 17th Army easily brushes aside the 1 corps garrison and seizes Hengyang! BANZAI!

Odds were 56:1, 5 LCUs retreat to Shaoyang, casualties 6779(408) vs 173(0). More importantly, the KMT's southern armies are trapped south of the river, and the other two bases near Changsha are virtually certain to fall.

We'll see how CF reacts to this. He can try a shock attack over the river tomorrow, but success seems unlikely. Will he pull units from Changsha to face 17th Army? Abandon the position? We shall see.

Screenshot below shows the sitrep in China:





Combined Fleet

Knowing that CF has most of the USN and the CVs at Baker, Cribtop HQ orders Combined Fleet to sortie for Truk. Action could be imminent. Banzai!


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 1/29/2012 8:25:54 PM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/31/2012 1:32:52 PM   
Grfin Zeppelin


Posts: 1515
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Germany
Status: offline 		Banzai ?

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 1/31/2012 8:25:46 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
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Status: offline 		Yep, probably overkill but in mid 42 the Allies need to be cautious. It is not just the carriers but the Allied player cannot afford to lose valuable APs and AKs as there are not many at this date. He showed you his whole hand but the reality is that at this date the Allied player has probably got only enough for one offensive operation at a time. Might as well support it fully-just in case the bad guys show up.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 2/1/2012 5:32:57 PM   
Cribtop


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Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		August 2, 1942

@crsutton - I see your point. Still, he probably could've taken Baker with an FT TF assault and kept his carriers hidden.

@GZ - Yes. Banzai! See today.

Subs

No contacts. One of our wolfpacks is going to re-base to Kwaj for use against any further moves CF has planned. Another has re-positioned to cover the departure from Brisbane as the 4th Fleet adventure could be a pre-lude to a more substantial attack against SE Fleet (and because of two consecutive "heavy volume" messages).

Frankly, neither side has had any luck with subs. We can't seem to find each other's convoy routes. A few long range Glen boats are checking points like the approaches to Christchurch and Melbourne in hopes of figuring CF out.

4th Fleet

Enemy ships remain at Baker today, but the covering convoys have withdrawn. Still only 1 LCU at the base, but we expect at least one support unit to come in soon.

SE Fleet

Munda recce'd again. A small re-supply TF approaches Tulagi. Cooktown makes level 3 airfield.

14th Army

The first TF is unloaded at Lingayen. TF No. 2 will begin unloading tomorrow. We estimate 2 days for that to unload, then 2 days on the march, then the first DA.

16th Army

Allied air stays home in Oz while we bomb the still immobile armor stack just outside of Daly. A second brigade arrives tomorrow to bolster our defenses while the two armored regiments trying for lightly held Tennant Creek have left the hex.

Engineers arrive and will begin building up the second line, starting with Taberfane.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

Our new defensive line is in place as 33rd Division returns to the hex just SE of Kalemyo.

Dacca makes level 7 airfield. Cribtop Intel may be off, but CF's selective airfield construction at least appears to be pointing out his areas of emphasis (NE India/Burma and SWPAC).

China

We wondered whether the enemy would risk a river crossing shock attack at Hengyang or would choose to withdraw overland. In the event he pressed, the Hengyang stack went on defensive orders and every IJAAF bomber pounded the hex to the SW. Aim was to slow down some enemy units, but not all, forcing a piecemeal river crossing and a bad attack.

It works. 6 LCUs, under heavy air attack, fail to cross. 3 enemy corps plus a large number of HQs and 2 base forces cross the river unsupported and get absolutely pounded. In the "free fire" phase, our LCUs reduce all enemy units to 0 in the replay. Odds are 1:95, causalties 10,812(671) vs 177(2). Ouch and banzai!

We will stand fast one more turn in case the Chinese send the remaining 6 LCUs (no doubt all combat corps) over the river, but at this point don't see how they can beat us this way. If CF backs off, we will send forces to seize the two lightly held bases adjacent to Hengyang and continue the work of isolating Changsha. At Changsha, another Manchurian Division (25th) arrives. We want to decimate and stalemate the enemy's isolated southern units and then catch Changsha between two fires. CF may choose to weaken the Changsha garrison to try to stop this or may pull out entirely. Either move would be welcome.

Pingsiang, meanwhile, is occupied by, err, rowboat with forts intact and 179K resources . A nice bonus for Port Arthur's factories and a nice denial of supply to the enemy.

To date, Operation Red Dragon has taken 8 enemy bases. We'll tote up the total industry captured soon, as well as the total industry still in KMT hands and with an LoC to Chungking.

Combined Fleet

The DDs that accompanied Hiryu and Soryu to Japan finish upgrades. These CVs sortie and will RV with CVL Ryuho before heading to Truk. The rest of Combined Fleet is also en route to Truk.

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(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 1195
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 2/1/2012 5:46:25 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		August 3, 1942

A quiet day for the first time in quite a while.

Subs

No contacts.

4th Fleet

Enemy ships (but no CVs) are spotted moving SW away from Baker. This puts them on a course toward Fiji. A small TF remains at Baker but still only 1 LCU is present. Cribtop HQ is mulling a counteroffensive here, a sort of "smash and grab" Op where we would re-take Baker and then leave. This move will necessarily have to await arrival of Combined Fleet and may not really be worth it. It's doable, but we don't want to place the IJN in a risky situation.

SE Fleet

No change.

14th Army

TF No 2 for Operation Killshot unloads at Lingayen.

16th Army

Nothing happens except that Kendari makes level 5 forts. Looking more and more like the forward move here was a feint ahead of the Baker Op.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

No change.

China

CF elects not to cross the river at Hengyang with his remaining 6 LCUs. Given that per e-mail they were only 3 miles short of a crossing, he must have stopped their movement, meaning an attack is now at least several days out.

During the replay, it appears that the stack that tried to threaten Wuchow has a move arrow SW toward Canton. However, after the replay there is no such arrow (we reconned the stack today). Is this possible? We must assume they are moving at Canton (which is well garrisoned behind forts about to hit level 6) and will move to block.

Hengyang makes level 2 forts.

Combined Fleet

Sailing for Truk.

Other

Study of the Ops report shows that Umnak Island make level 5 airfield and Madras level 8 port last turn.

_____________________________


(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 1196
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 2/3/2012 6:26:43 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		August 4, 1942

Subs

No contacts, but we are shifting subs to the Fiji area as CF's battle fleet and CVs are spotted heading there.

4th Fleet

Our Mavii at the secret Nukufetau seaplane base again prove their worth, spotting a BB heavy SCTF and 2 carrier TFs headed Southwest from Baker toward Fiji (or perhaps Auckland).

Cribtop HQ continues to plan either a counter invasion or a mass paradrop at Baker. Tomorrow we will bomb the place to recon enemy LCUs present. So far only the Marine Raiders are seen.

Reinforcements and supply approach TB, still a few days out.

SE Fleet

Digging like mad and planning deployment of LBA in the event of invasion. Tulagi and empty Ndeni are judged the most likely targets, with Milne Bay to Horn Island a secondary possibility. A re-supply convoy begins unloading at Tulagi today with about six months worth of supply tonnage.

14th Army

A few elements of 56th Division don't quite finish unloading today, but will tomorrow.

16th Army

Quiet in NW Oz as we maneuver to grab Tennant. Sepandjang invaded as DBCL work moves to its conclusion in the eastern DEI.

25th Army

This has become the mining AO. We have extra TKs (for now) and are using them to suck excess fuel out of Borneo and Sumatra. We are seeing a big surge in Oil and Fuel reaching the Home Islands as our CS tanker convoy system is up and running smoothly.

Until we finish with China and Luzon, troops on the ground are thin here. We will use subs, patrol planes and picket ships to look for signs of enemy activity, but Cribtop Intel is comforted knowing that the USN CVs are elsewhere for now. The window of vulnerability should be short, as Luzon should go quickly and there are signs that Red Dragon is approaching a climax in China.

15th Army

A new enemy appears in the form of Hurricane IICs escorting Blenheims to attack 33rd Division outside of Kalemyo. Damage is nominal and we will LRCAP tomorrow.

Port Blair's Nells have finished upgrading to the long range G3M3, ensuring full coverage of the Bay of Bengal. We keep range circumscribed to prevent misadventures over Chittagong, Madras or Ceylon.

Chittagong's airfield hits level 6.

China

We order a DA to catch the defeated LCUs in the Hengyang hex trying to march back out. They are hammered with 28:1 odds, and we are pleased to note a "supply (-)" modifier that is hopefully impacting all the cut off troops south of the river as well. 11 already mauled LCUs are forced to retreat back over the river with casualties 6,466(520) vs 182(0). The last month has seen literally thousands of KMT squads destroyed. 17th Army will detach a few units to take the other two bases "behind" Changsha.

The enemy stack SW of Hengyang shows a move arrow toward Pingsiang. They are probably going to try for Changsha. We will use various LCUs, including 13th Army still yapping at the enemy's heels, to attempt to slow this movement. If the end result is 13th Army plus the large IJA Changsha stack sitting on 30+ isolated LCUs in the city, that may not be a bad conclusion to Red Dragon.

Near Wuchow, we confirm that at least some of the 6 enemy LCUs are marching overland to the SW toward Canton/Wuchow. We can use the road net to block this move pretty handily. Cribtop HQ sees this as a nuisance offensive akin to the Franklin campaign in the US Civil War.

IJAAF bombers roam unhindered over both these stacks, causing painful casualties in the clear hex SW of Hengyang.

Combined Fleet

Under cover of a special purpose ASW TF, Combined Fleet will arrive at Truk tomorrow. A tanker convoy with another 60K fuel for Truk is a day behind. We also have about 150K fuel between the port stocks, the slow AOs at Truk and the Fleet Oilers organic to Combined Fleet. We are ready to rumble if the enemy makes another move in the Pacific. Cribtop HQ is studying and wargaming various scenarios and intends to only engage with our carriers under LBA support and a strong position.


< Message edited by Cribtop -- 2/4/2012 3:34:25 AM >

_____________________________


(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 1197
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 2/3/2012 11:22:26 PM   
jrcar

 

Posts: 3613
Joined: 4/19/2002
From: Seymour, Australia
Status: offline 		Nice job in China!

Agree ref the Allies invasion of Baker. They can afford to rinse and repeat this way, slow and methodical. Gives you time... but not a lot you can do about it except dig faster!


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AE BETA Breaker

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 1198
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 2/4/2012 12:31:10 AM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		Baker - Any of those size 0(0) ports will need you to bring Naval Support. I would move at least one of your Shipping Engineer Units to the Gilberts area. Don't want to risk shipping to load and/or unload vehicles because of lack of this vital device.

When I play the Allies, those little Port Service units are very important to keep track of as you need them at bases without a size 2 port to get things loaded/unloaded.

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(in reply to jrcar)
Post #: 1199
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 2/4/2012 3:32:06 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Thanks, gents. Very pleased about the China progress, although like jrcar I feel like the whole thing is done on a shoe string in Scenario 1.

Re: Baker. I guess the main question is - do I really want to re-take it? So far the answer is - "Yes, so long as it's a low risk Op and the island remains minimally garrisoned."



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(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 1200
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