RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

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All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> After Action Reports >> RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:22:59 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

I find it interesting how Rader has 7k+ av at the EXACT landing spot...

GJ, are you sure you want to land at that spot and not Ominato or whatever...make a quick attack and capture the airbase there for frontline support..

Not sure what Jeff is referring to here. I think Jeff is under the impression that rader has 7k+ AV at the next target beach. But actually he has 7k at Hachinoe, the first target beach (he started with 4k troops there at the time of GJ's invasion, but has since reinforced).

So, GJ is pulling a rope-a-dope, invading a new beach rather than reinforcing the "old" one. He's sending in a new force (presumably fully prepped, knowing GJ and his clever ways). He's also committing to a third invasion, this one as a blocking force.

Meanwhile, if Ominato truly has just two divisions, GJ can bomb those to smithereens and quickly cobble together a fourth invasion to hit that beach.

Me thinks rader is in trouble.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/17/2012 3:24:09 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:24:27 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Confirmed by Michealm (who is an hero!): it's a bug "The code doesn't think it needs to get a list of things in the current hex as it already has the current list in memory. But the list is of Allied units, not Japanese. Thus why it thinks it should not be bombing the hex."

He's fixing it

I think you need to put Michaelm on "paid retainer" until this invasion is over.

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:26:28 PM

castor troy

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yeah, a parashock would be a hell of a nice exploiting of the engine. Surely reasonable to have 300 paras screw up an army of 300.000 men. As if the ground combat model would not be problematic enough already, why trying to screw it up even more? Has the game become a hacker meeting place? And yeah, I do look at the losses, the Allied are taking twice the losses as the Japanese while the Japanese got more av there anyway. And your point is?

Every week an attack means no Allied left in three weeks.

Before the forts are at level 0 there will be no nondisabled Allied combat squad left with the Japanese being able to bring in more troops than the Allied as reinforcements. And it takes the Japanese probably not longer than three or four days to build a level 3 fort from level 0, if not in two days already.! There are probably something like 1000+ engineers in that hex.

< Message edited by castor troy -- 1/17/2012 3:30:54 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:32:28 PM

crsutton

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Regarding the Sam fighter. I asked PzB about it in his AAR as I think he knows Japanese production pretty well. No way you should be seeing the Sam at this point of the war. I would call this very unusual and I wonder how Rader pulled it off.

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:34:46 PM

castor troy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Regarding the Sam fighter. I asked PzB about it in his AAR as I think he knows Japanese production pretty well. No way you should be seeing the Sam at this point of the war. I would call this very unusual and I wonder how Rader pulled it off.

Damian (n1267487 something

) said it often enough, if you know how to, you can get an aircraft a year earlier, if not even earlier. That's why I ask for a hr in all my PBEM about it keeping halveway realistic, even with realistic R&D off.

< Message edited by castor troy -- 1/17/2012 3:36:05 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:36:45 PM

Canoerebel

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I agree with Castor's point about the potential to abuse the para-shock system, but I disagree with his comments about the Allied attack. The Allies suffered more disruption, but Japan suffered more outright destruction. The Allies could prevail under that scenario. I've seen it happen many times, where a numerically inferior force is able to overcome a superior force. Better prep, supply, control of the air, disruption induced by bombing and lack of suppy, force quality, armament quality, leader quality, etc. all enter into the equation.

Of course, if rader is reinforcing, then it's possible he could "stop the bleeding" and hold Hachinoe.

But if GJ indeed pulls a rope-a-dope and catches rader underprepared at another invasion hex, then rader may be screwed there.

Fun!

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Post #: 5526

RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:41:44 PM

castor troy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I agree with Castor's point about the potential to abuse the para-shock system, but I disagree with his comments about the Allied attack.� The Allies suffered more disruption, but Japan suffered more outright destruction.� The Allies could prevail under that scenario.� I've seen it happen many times, where a numerically inferior force is able to overcome a superior force.� Better prep, supply, control of the air, disruption induced by bombing and lack of suppy, force quality, armament quality, leader quality, etc. all enter into the equation.

Of course, if rader is reinforcing, then it's possible he could "stop the bleeding" and hold Hachinoe.

But if GJ indeed pulls a rope-a-dope and catches rader underprepared at another invasion hex, then rader may be screwed there.

Fun!�

I must have read the combat report wrong then because the Allied actually lost twice as much combat squads (those are responsible for the av) as the Japanese while already having less troops there. Would it be the other way around I might agree with you, but the numbers tell a different story than what people are hoping to see in this AAR.

Ground combat at Hachinohe (118,55)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 157917 troops, 3232 guns, 4443 vehicles, Assault Value = 6145

Defending force 237138 troops, 3895 guns, 3116 vehicles, Assault Value = 7052

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 6

Allied adjusted assault: 3531

Japanese adjusted defense: 9725

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 6)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
10746 casualties reported
Squads: 64 destroyed, 655 disabled
Non Combat: 39 destroyed, 237 disabled
Engineers: 17 destroyed, 272 disabled
Guns lost 940 (132 destroyed, 808 disabled)
Vehicles lost 638 (102 destroyed, 536 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
14102 casualties reported
Squads: 47 destroyed, 1291 disabled
Non Combat: 88 destroyed, 337 disabled
Engineers: 23 destroyed, 424 disabled
Guns lost 397 (32 destroyed, 365 disabled)
Vehicles lost 593 (253 destroyed, 340 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

guns is the only important factor I see the Allied have done better. At such a ratio, how should this battle be won for the Allied?

Success of this whole operation can IMO only be achieved with more landings, same as I said before all started, land at a base and take it quickly, exploit the situation. Land and be bogged down, FAIL.

< Message edited by castor troy -- 1/17/2012 3:44:59 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:45:35 PM

Canoerebel

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You are misreading (or misinterpreting) the real truth behind the combat report.� The Allies suffered greater disruption (ie disablement), but Japan suffered greater destruction of units (both infantry and noncombat squads and guns).� The disabled troops are still there and will recover.� The true effectiveness of the attack isn't measured by disablement, but by destruction.� The Allies prevailed there, which is very telling considering the forts and the odds.� In other words:� Taking all factors into consideration, this attack was a very favorable and encouragnig outcome for the Allies. If Japan didn't reinforce, the Allies would almost surely win the battle for this hex.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/17/2012 3:47:27 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:51:54 PM

beppi

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quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

yeah, a parashock would be a hell of a nice exploiting of the engine. Surely reasonable to have 300 paras screw up an army of 300.000 men. As if the ground combat model would not be problematic enough already, why trying to screw it up even more? Has the game become a hacker meeting place? And yeah, I do look at the losses, the Allied are taking twice the losses as the Japanese while the Japanese got more av there anyway. And your point is? Every week an attack means no Allied left in three weeks.

Before the forts are at level 0 there will be no nondisabled Allied combat squad left with the Japanese being able to bring in more troops than the Allied as reinforcements. And it takes the Japanese probably not longer than three or four days to build a level 3 fort from level 0, if not in two days already.! There are probably something like 1000+ engineers in that hex.

Nooone forces noone to exploit the engine. That late during the war the allies have the troops and the allies have the airlifting capacity to drop a 1000 AV during an attack. And you only need one parashock. So where is the problem as i do not see any exploitation of the engine if you drop around 1000 AV and noone forces you to drop less. Even at Normandy there were only 15000 (i assume a 500AV) Paras involved. So where is the exploitation here

Regarding to -> if you attack each weak no troops are left.
If you split the troops into three parts and put them into reserve mode you recover 200+ squads each turn. So do it a week and you can recover a 1000 squads a week. So again no real problem with it. Combine it with the quite powerful bombardment attack and after a few weeks take the hex. Again an exploitation of the engine?

And that does not take into account the 2E+4E + Naval forces which disable a good 150+ combat squads each turn. If you do it properly it is possible to take the base.

< Message edited by beppi -- 1/17/2012 4:11:46 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:55:57 PM

castor troy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You are misreading (or misinterpreting) the real truth behind the combat report.� The Allies suffered greater disruption (ie disablement), but Japan suffered greater destruction of units (both infantry and noncombat squads and guns).� The disabled troops are still there and will recover.� The true effectiveness of the attack isn't measured by disablement, but by destruction.� The Allies prevailed there, which is very telling considering the forts and the odds.� In other words:� Taking all factors into consideration, this attack was a very favorable outcome for the Allies.

I am not to be honest and I can guarantee you that I am fully aware of the difference between destroyed/disabled units and what disruption means. The disabled troops are still there, yes, and the Japanese disabled troops are gone or what? The Japanese will recover probably FASTER than the Allied just because of the reason their disablements are spread out between far more units AND they suffered only halve as many disablements than the Allied.

It might be a nice hope to see Allied squads getting faster out of disabled state than Japanese but that is not the case in the game and this was tested back in WITP. If there is equal supply, equal support then a IJ squad is the same as an Allied squad in terms of recovering.

And destruction? Wooohooo, I'm sure rader really had a heartattack when he saw 5 dozen combat squads destroyed, means one or two in every major unit in his stack. And I tell you what, he disabled the equivalent of nearly 4 US divisions in one attack, takes months to fully recover if there are a couple of units in the stack that took the majority of the losses which seems to happen for both the attacker and defender. But hey, if GJ wants to go ahead attacking, trying to go through the wall, nothing better for the Japanese.

I have seen Japanese huge stacks bleeding away against Chinese stacks when the Japanese thought they could wipe them with such odds that this result is no surprise for me at all as the Allied seem to think the same when attacking big Japanese stacks. The odds in this battle here are clearly favoured for rader, the only thing are more landings but I have been saying this already.

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:56:46 PM

jeffk3510

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Dan-

What I was getting at... of all the places Rader could reinforce prior to the invasion.. he had 4k the day of the invasion...... (I didn't mean to hit 7)

In otherwords.. of ALL of the places he could defend at... he put 4k behind forts on a clear hex... the same hex GreyJoy landed at... maybe it was just chance, and I don't realize how many troops are in the game at this point, as I have never played this late into a GC game..

I was also suggesting hitting Onimato, if it only has that small of a force, instead of landing them at Hachinoe... where I am in the same boat as CastorTroy on outcome...

If he doesn't move and take it quickly enough... it could be nasty..

< Message edited by jeffk3510 -- 1/17/2012 3:59:39 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:58:16 PM

Canoerebel

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Jeff, I suspect raider has zillions of troops at every likely invasion hex in northern Honshu. Hachinoe was an obvious target, given the clear terrain, so he garrisoned it heavily. I would expect that same treatement at other likely invasion hexes up that way.

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 3:59:39 PM

jeffk3510

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You're probably right..

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 4:03:04 PM

Canoerebel

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As for the combat results, castor, the telling fact was that a 1:2 attack resulted in greater destruction to the defender and dropped forts. If rader couldn't reinforce (if, for instance, this was a battle for a well-defended island), then GJ would win this battle and take the hex. It would take some time to reduce forts and to repeatedly bomb and bombard the defenders, but this battle was on a trajectory leading to Allied victory.

However, rader can reinforce and is doing so (perhaps he too thinks it is vulnerable, or perhaps he has some hopes of an effective counterattack). But it looks like GJ isn't going to reinforce the hex. Instead, he's aiming elsewhere. The question is whether rader has that second target adequately defended.

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 4:29:49 PM

castor troy

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Canoe, we disagree on the outcome of a prolonged fight, but this is nothing bad.

I would really like to have a turn with the passwords just to run the turns with everything turned off and have the Allied doing a deliberate attack every 7th day for the next 10 weeks. I would bet the Allied would get wiped out, you would bet they would take the base. Would be a nice bet.

< Message edited by castor troy -- 1/17/2012 4:30:55 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 5:20:14 PM

GreyJoy

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Jeffk...sorry but i cannot agree with your statement.
Hachinoe was the most obvious target and so it's normal to have it heavily guarded. However when i landed there there were 180k men at Ominato, 170k at Aomori and 220k at Aikita...plus more 200k in the area around Sendai...

So here's the plan of Hairy to the Bone.

We will create a safety cordon with 30 DDs (divided into 5 divisions) and 50 PTs, along with 35 subs. PFs and DEs will provide ASW assets.
680 transports and nearly 200 surface ships will move towards Aikita, divided into 5 different Amphib TFs and several SCTFs. Radar assets for the CAP will be provided by a strong CVTF composed of 15 CVEs, 7 CLAAs and DEs.
6 BBs and 6 CAs will provide shore bombardments, while 1 BB TF will remain in SCTF mode in cover.
Several CL TFs will cover the fleet.
3000 fighters on LRCAP from Hachinoe. The bulk of them being between 10 and 20k, with some over 40k (against high alt kami) and some at 1000k.
800 LB bombers from Sapporo will ground bomb (overcast foreseen), while 1500 Dive bombers and Torpedo bombers, along with 160 escorting wildcats are moved to Kushiro (range 8 hexes) and will try to cover the southern flank against the KB (i know he's coming )....subs and mines are placed on the approaching paths to Hachinoe and Akita...

I foresee a huge air battle.... Tokyo is again full of planes and i know Rader is just waiting for the right chance...i know he has seen the diminishing numbers of LCUs at Hachinoe...so he knows we were loading them up...he may have set his torpedo bombers on naval attack from Tokyo with a huge escort... that's why i'm leaving my BB and CVEs with the fleet...they will act as torpedo magnets...so saving (hopefully) my transports...

Landings are scheldued for the morning of the first day...

Finger crossed

PS: we couldn't hope to break frontally...so we needed a "feint"...an operational one...attracting the bulk of his defences at Hachinoe was the only way to give the Aikita boys a chance...and to do that our force at Hachinoe must have been a credible force...with a decent strenght...we needed to show him a real "danger" to force him to committ.... not that Aikita now is undefended...170k men are there...but for sure the bulk of his arty, CDs and AAs are at Hachinoe.... and that's good!

Attachment (1)

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 5:36:32 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

and to do that our force at Hachinoe must have been a credible force...with a decent strenght.

Well that explains why all the USMC divisions are in the 2nd wave. What's the roster for this landing?

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 5:38:30 PM

jeffk3510

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GJ- I just find it interesting that he had a lot of AV at the exact place you decide to land...

Just an observation..

< Message edited by jeffk3510 -- 1/17/2012 5:42:47 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 5:41:21 PM

GreyJoy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

GJ- I just find it interesting that he had a lot of AV at the exact place you decide to land...

Just an ovservation..

Sorry Jeff, didn't want to "read" more than what you actually said. I apologise

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 5:43:26 PM

GreyJoy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

and to do that our force at Hachinoe must have been a credible force...with a decent strenght.

Well that explains why all the USMC divisions are in the 2nd wave. What's the roster for this landing?

4 USMC Divisions + 2 Full Marines Regiments
5 US Divisions
Several Tank units and artillery

Should be stronger than the first wave...something around 7k AVs

The third wave is in reserve for the moment...mainly it is composed of several indipendent regiments and Bdes...but would like to keep them as a mobile reserve for the moment

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 5:44:14 PM

jeffk3510

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No apology needed...

I would also like to say that it is great for this community that you two are REALLY pushing the envelope of this game. It is late in the game and most of us never get this far, so everything you guys do is invaluable to future players...and the future of this game IMO..

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 5:44:45 PM

GreyJoy

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I wanna win, obviously....but, as always...no matter how this adventure will end...it had been great fun!

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 5:44:46 PM

jeffk3510

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What are you doing outside of Honshu, in other areas that have probably lost 95% of his attention?

< Message edited by jeffk3510 -- 1/17/2012 5:49:44 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 5:46:02 PM

GreyJoy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

What are you doing outside of Honshu, in othter areas that have probably lost 95% of his attention?

close to nothing... the war is here now...won't spend any valuable asset or resource in other areas for the moment...if this operation fail i may try something else for 1945...but for the moment all the allied assets are involved here!

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 5:51:14 PM

jeffk3510

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Dan- I re read my post, and I was asking if he was planning on (which I am in favor of) a new invasion site....

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 6:13:23 PM

GreyJoy

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...can't wait for the turn guys...i know most of my surface fleet will be sacrificied...i only hope i can get all my troops ashore safely...

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 6:51:49 PM

AcePylut

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I'd say the allies will be successful. The Allies attacked against a higher AV, sitting behind 7+ forts, got 1-2 odds, and didn't turn out so bad. That Jap AV is going to come down with each allied attack, and thus, the Jap AV is going to go down. Once the Japs lose a few more fort levels, those "destroyed vs. disabled" numbers are going to be heavily in Allied favor.

Radar's only hope is to cycle units in and out to keep his guys fresh. A couple "blocking landings" as you're doing could force Radar to move his troops to three different hot spots, and then he won't be able to cycle in and out and keep his guys fresh.

Keep pounding away, get that LBA bug fixed, and Japan is yours.

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 7:09:33 PM

SqzMyLemon

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It reminds me of the Normandy campaign. It may takes months of game time, but keep grinding away. Once he breaks, that's it. These multiple landings will surely spread him thin and allow for a breathrough somewhere, eventually. Once you get your air ground attack woes sorted out, it will be the difference that tips the scales in your favour. Normandy wasn't won in a day, neither will Japan.

Edit:

I think I just reserved a place for myself in JFB purgatory.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 1/17/2012 7:58:06 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 7:14:31 PM

Canoerebel

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The pressure cooker that is this theater is also likely to result in mistakes being made by rader.� With ships, aircraft and armies in such close proxmity, and with the Allies now holding an advantage at sea and in the air, eventually rader will get unlucky or make a mistake and suffer truly devastating losses.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/17/2012 7:15:29 PM >

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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 1/17/2012 8:11:25 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

Canoe, we disagree on the outcome of a prolonged fight, but this is nothing bad. I would really like to have a turn with the passwords just to run the turns with everything turned off and have the Allied doing a deliberate attack every 7th day for the next 10 weeks. I would bet the Allied would get wiped out, you would bet they would take the base. Would be a nice bet.

Well, there are many factors. Air support and naval bombardments will eventually make a difference. If GJ can keep the Japanese disrupted then the casualtie rate can eventually change. I don't see were GJ can continue to take losses such as his first whack but he has both superior and more numerous guns and tanks and I have seen that combined air support make the difference over a prolonged fight. However, I do agree that it will take a very long time and if Rader can reinforce and more important maintain his flow of supply, then he can hold that spot for a very long time if not forever. If this is all GJ has then I am not sure he can win. If he can crack open another base then that is different. All of us who worship the genius of the Greyjoy....have faith.