beppi
Posts: 382
Joined: 3/11/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline
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So,
so thoughts about the situation at Akita:
We know from the last bombardment that the raw non adjusted numbers are:
Attacking force 107396 troops, 1373 guns, 260 vehicles, Assault Value = 4073
Defending force 170682 troops, 3421 guns, 4216 vehicles, Assault Value = 6366
so the allies have a solid lead with 2300 AV at the situation. They have a big lead
in artillery and they have a very big lead in armored vehicles.
So now lets take a look at the filtered units. So decisions should not be done on just the raw amount of units cause there are a lot of engeneering stuff/AA units and so on.
I have removed all AA Units, Base forces, HQs and so on:
We have a:
77th Division
4th Tank Division
Karafuto Mixed Brigade
47th Division
42nd Division
70th Ind.Mixed Brigade
50th Ind.Mixed Brigade
19th Division
10th Ind.Mixed Regiment
18th Division
81st Division
86th Naval Guard Unit
4th Amphibious Brigade
2nd Depot Division
6th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
11th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
10th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
1st Mobile Field Artillery Regiment
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
31st Mountain Gun Regiment
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion
11th Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Mortar Battalion
vs
3rd Marine Division
5th USMC Tank Battalion
31st Infantry Division
93rd Infantry Division
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
29th Marine Regiment
I Corps Cmbt Engineer Regiment
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
671th Tank Destroyer Battalion
632nd Tank Destroyer Battalion
77th Infantry Division
2nd British Division
22nd Marine Regiment
754th Tank Battalion
711th Tank Battalion
4th USMC Tank Battalion
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
762nd Tank Battalion
4th Marine Division
18th Canadian Brigade
193rd Tank Battalion
IV Corps Engineer Battalion
7th Infantry Div /2
82nd (West African) Division
33rd Infantry Division
41st Infantry Division
1st Marine Division
43rd Infantry Div /3
134th Field Artillery Battalion
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
198th Field Artillery Battalion
251st Field Artillery Battalion
4th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XIV Corps Artillery
XI Corps Artillery
205th Field Artillery Battalion
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
181st Field Artillery Regiment
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
148th Field Artillery Battalion
168th Field Artillery Regiment
225th Field Artillery Battalion
97th Field Artillery Battalion
2/13th Field Regiment
147th Field Artillery Regiment
So the allies have a massive lead in armored units and a massive artillery lead. Which is quite important.
I assume that the two partial allied units are finally unloaded prior to the attack. We do not know any forts but lets assume there are lvl 6+ forts. As the biggest drawback this position is not open terrain. We have forest which gives a x2 modifier (i cannot crosscheck that in game right now, at least i hope it is not a x3 forest).
From the first japanese bombardement went quite well for the allies loss wise.
So as the reader wants he can skip the following thoughts as they are just some number crunching and theory crafting. As always that information might be right or might be wrong.
Some scenarios is tested to show how a shock attack works and especially what is important for it.
I will shortly describe how from my point of view a shock combat round works. First each side bombards each other. Then with a shock the defender combat units get a free fire round on the attacker. Then the combat units attack each other in a random way. The engine has some massive limits as it tends to concentrates the normal combat attacks on some units which get hit very massive and often with large stacks even a division can become completely disabled while other divisions only suffer 15 or 20 disabled squads.
Scen 1:
Defender 4 divisions = 1600 AV, some HQs, everything prepped and nothing else and level 6 forts. Open terrain.
Attacker 6 divisions = 2400AV, some HQs, everything prepped and nothing else.
So we assume a shock attack from the attacker. From my testing i would assume the adjusted AV around 4000 against 3500 or so, so just a 1:1. Attacker will bring a fort down, maybe two and will suffer around 2:1 disabled squads. If it is the first attack with fresh units usually there aren't many destroyed squads. If we take a deliberate attack it is even possible that you get better odds as the free firing passes disrupt a lot of units and your adjusted AV suffer.
Scen 2:
Defender: as Scen 1
Attacker: as Scen 1 + 30 different artillery units
So lets assume a shock here too. What happens now ? During the initial artillery phase the attacker hits much much harder. It suppresses a lot of combat power of the defender during the initial bombardment phase. (That does not mean the units are disabled after the combat, just suppressed during the combat as there is always some recovery). From my testing i would estimate the final adjusted odds as around 1500 - 1700 AV for the defender and as there isnt't as much disabling during the free firing pass around 5000 AV for the attacker which leads to around 3:1 for the attacker. Now if you do a paradrop too i would estimate the adjusted numbers to up to 7000 : 1600 which is a solid 4:1. That 4:1 does not mean that you will cause much more losses to the defender but usually the disabled squads drop down to 1:1 or even better for the allies AND you take down much more forts.
So end of theory crafting back to Akita.
What is the situation now?
- You have around 4 days unit reinforcements come in
- You have an advantage in artillery and a very big advantage in armor
- You are in good supply.
So if you do a deliberate attack now you might get a 2:1 or 3:1, if you do a para deliberate you might even get a 3:1 or 4:1. But the chances are low that you will get a high enough modifier to overcome the forts during the first attack. You will bring down the forts by 1 maybe 2 (and i am still no sure if it is possible to bring down forts more than one with a deliberate attack which does no capture the base, but as always i might be wrong). You will suffer quite a lot of disabled squads, as the enemy does maybe even lower than him. But you will accumulate disruption, usually more than your enemy. Then after the two turn round you can either continue to deliberate which can be quite close to cap the base then, try a shock which will be deadly as disrupted units take massive losses during a shock or just rest.
If you do a para deliberate your paratroopers will get completely mauled. I assume the other posters are right and you get a double attack value, but as the paras shock alone they will suffer most of the free firing pass. And i am quite sure cause i experienced it on my own, a single unit shocking with the rest deliberate is deadly. And then the paras are gone, which means no more shock drops in the future (if you dont drop a bde to get the drop bonus).
So if you do a classic shock drop. What will happen ? You have the edge on artillery and a big lead on armor (quantity and quality), you have a 2k AV advantage. So during the initial assault i expect quite a lot of disabled squads but not that much destroyed. But you play two day turns which sucks with shock attacks. On the second day it massively depends on the first day. If you get good odds like 3:1 or 4:1 you might bring 3 or 4 levels of forts down which help quite a lot during the second assault. You do not fight in open terrain which is quite a drawback as you can always assume and organic fort of level 3 which you cannot bring down. If the first day goes bad and you only get a 2:1 the second day will become deadly and you can easily suffer a 1500+ disabled squads.
You paras in that case will only suffer like the rest of your force, so you can pick them up again and drop them somewhere else in a few days/weeks.
So lets take a look at the close future. You have 2 very good positions (Hachinoe and Akita) and a weaker a little bit endangered blocking force. Whatever you do you will not lose the war in the next two days. You units are in good supply, you have naval superiority and you have your 2E/4E to cause havoc. Even if a combined bombardment with multiple BB Tfs, your 4E and your troops on bombardment attack only cause a 100 - 150 disabled combat squads each day, after 10 days it still are a 1000. Your units will build organic forts up to level 2/3 which helps quite a lot getting not pushed out of a hex. And if everything goes wrong you still can to a naval evac. It will get easier and easier as more of the combined fleet is sunk.
What is in addition important, if you recover your units, put them into reserve if possible and split them. Raeder is doing the same (look at some of the 4E bombing a 15 or so pages ago) where he splitted all his combat units for faster upgrade/recovery. This matter was discussed quite often and i do not see any gaminess in that.
So in the end, as always during the war there are hard decisions. It is your turn to either be a Patton („May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't.“) or to be an Italian ship captain which leaves the ship prior to the rest of the crew or you might end with your own little big horn because you underestimated your enemy.
So in the end (and accept my little sarcasm)
- deliberate attack -> lower losses, lower chances of capture,
- deliberate + paras -> lower losses, higher chances of capture, dead para units
- shock attack -> quite stupid without paras, highest losses, higher chances of capture
- shock + paras -> highest losses, highest chance to capture
- doing nothing -> no losses, no chances to achieve anything
- reembark the troops and shuttle them to east coast USA -> you cannot lose any unit anymore
- raise the white Italian battle flag (white cross on white background) -> no more decisions to make
I doubt that any decision may bring you in an situation where you do not have any more options and lose all your units.
As always you are the high command, you have to do a decision. I personally would try a shockdrop and even if it fails whenever i look into the mirror i would say -> "But at least i tried it". But listening to me in that case may not be very wise.
< Message edited by beppi -- 1/18/2012 2:06:43 PM >
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Printable Version
RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE - 
Dont give into temptation 
Stay away from the darkside Luke!
I would really like to have a turn with the passwords just to run the turns with everything turned off and have the Allied doing a deliberate attack every 7th day for the next 10 weeks. I would bet the Allied would get wiped out, you would bet they would take the base. Would be a nice bet. 
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