Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

BW,

Proponents of Boyd would point to the human tendency to freeze and pursue the last course of action which seemed appropriate when faced with a situation which is getting out of hand. Rader's last plan which seemed appropriate was to march up through India to Karachi and bomb it into dust to support his infantry assaults. When he dithered and failed to commit appropriately it showed he was unsure what to do. Since then he has just carried through his last plan whilst not accounting for changed circumstances.

He's Hannibal - Able to win victories but not use them to win a campaign. Doesn't make him a bad player at all, but it does mean he is liable to continue a losing plan which is rendered inappropriate by changing situations.

So far no-one has attempted the optimal strategic approach to India. Pushing slowly north and allowing the Allies to retreat into Festung Karachi isn't really optimal.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hmmm, fun to think about a counterinvasion. Just to get some juices flowing, my first inclination would be to hit Surat and the base across the bight, assuming they were fairly lightly defended and that the spearhead of the IJ army was still somewhere pressing Karachi.

Imagine landing several divisions, five to ten good tank units, some paratroops, and base forces at Surat. When those paratroops then took interior bases, with infantry and armor moving fast to the east and northeast (true) by strat movement and by ground, the Japanese would panic. Suddenly an army of 200 units (or whatever) would be faced with isolation and destruction. Rader would realize that, would fight, and would begin withdrawing his units post haste to Calcutta.

Then your Karachi airforce swings into action and eventually you break out there. Rader will get the majority of his army out, but many units will get whipped, rader will be horrified, and you will have the time of your life.

So, assuming the IJ spearhead is around Karachi or Delhi, that's the place to land. If Surat is too strongly defended, the next best spot is probably Goa, striving to move northeast (true) as quickly as possible with the same goals in mind. Armor and paratroops would be vital to such a charge, plus base forces and transport aircraft at Goa to start the leap-frogging, paratrooping assault.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hmmm, fun to think about a counterinvasion. Just to get some juices flowing, my first inclination would be to hit Surat and the base across the bight, assuming they were fairly lightly defended and that the spearhead of the IJ army was still somewhere pressing Karachi.

Imagine landing several divisions, five to ten good tank units, some paratroops, and base forces at Surat. When those paratroops then took interior bases, with infantry and armor moving fast to the east and northeast (true) by strat movement and by ground, the Japanese would panic. Suddenly an army of 200 units (or whatever) would be faced with isolation and destruction. Rader would realize that, would fight, and would begin withdrawing his units post haste to Calcutta.

Then your Karachi airforce swings into action and eventually you break out there. Rader will get the majority of his army out, but many units will get whipped, rader will be horrified, and you will have the time of your life.

So, assuming the IJ spearhead is around Karachi or Delhi, that's the place to land. If Surat is too strongly defended, the next best spot is probably Goa, striving to move northeast (true) as quickly as possible with the same goals in mind. Armor and paratroops would be vital to such a charge, plus base forces and transport aircraft at Goa to start the leap-frogging, paratrooping assault.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hmmm, fun to think about a counterinvasion. Just to get some juices flowing, my first inclination would be to hit Surat and the base across the bight, assuming they were fairly lightly defended and that the spearhead of the IJ army was still somewhere pressing Karachi.

Imagine landing several divisions, five to ten good tank units, some paratroops, and base forces at Surat. When those paratroops then took interior bases, with infantry and armor moving fast to the east and northeast (true) by strat movement and by ground, the Japanese would panic. Suddenly an army of 200 units (or whatever) would be faced with isolation and destruction. Rader would realize that, would fight, and would begin withdrawing his units post haste to Calcutta.

Then your Karachi airforce swings into action and eventually you break out there. Rader will get the majority of his army out, but many units will get whipped, rader will be horrified, and you will have the time of your life.

So, assuming the IJ spearhead is around Karachi or Delhi, that's the place to land. If Surat is too strongly defended, the next best spot is probably Goa, striving to move northeast (true) as quickly as possible with the same goals in mind. Armor and paratroops would be vital to such a charge, plus base forces and transport aircraft at Goa to start the leap-frogging, paratrooping assault.

I agree that a counter campaign should be planned now. I disagree that Rader will be any place near Karachi by May when Aden opens up. I think he will begin to retreat within the next 6-8 weeks--tops--and GJ should prep his major land forces for a deep-south strike&hold to cut off the retreat lines while the Karachi bastion kicks Rader in the bum as he runs south toward the blockers.

The key to whatever GJ does is strategic surprise pivoting on Rader's absolute blindness of what's coming down the Aden wormhole in mid-June. I'd advocate for Thor's Hammer--the whole USN that can be spared, the carriers, the modern BBs, 100 or more destroyers--a mighty hammer. GJ should HOPE the KB is in the IO. How he phases and groups and commands those TFs is a major planning hurdle, but he gets one and only one strategic freebie and he has to absolutely blow the doors off on the first swing at bat. Take back the west coast of India and never let it go. Second phase is troops, landing, and potential POW camp, but where? Don't know. That depends on Rader's February.

GJ, get out paper&pen and look at your LCU queues, your ships. Stage at EC (I don't have the game open but I don't think there's a lot of benefit to using the UK for the Aden route. If the transit days work better use the UK.) Get the best COs in place in Jan-Mar, and then get those TFs moving so they get to Aden as fast as possible, already configured to go down the pipe. Prep your troops for three or so major objectives--in order of probability re his retreat posture--and adjust to two, then one as recon tells you where he's going for his pull out. He may retire to the major industrial centers and dare you to dig him out, so you should plan on that too. A mistake IMO, but he might.

I'm not saying cut off ops everywhere else, but he has his fleet and 200+ LCUs where you can get at them, and he can't get them out quickly. June-Sept. 1943 could be epic if you start now, and THINK NAVY, NOT AIR FORCE!!!!. (I'm sounding like CR!)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I use those 18 plane Kingfisher air groups for ASW work around bases. I train them up from day 1 for this role (some minor training in naval search). Those 500 and 250 lb bombs should hurt a sub.

quote:

Thor's Hammer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58



The key to whatever GJ does is strategic surprise pivoting on Rader's absolute blindness of what's coming down the Aden wormhole in mid-June. I'd advocate for Thor's Hammer--the whole USN that can be spared, the carriers, the modern BBs, 100 or more destroyers--a mighty hammer. GJ should HOPE the KB is in the IO. How he phases and groups and commands those TFs is a major planning hurdle, but he gets one and only one strategic freebie and he has to absolutely blow the doors off on the first swing at bat. Take back the west coast of India and never let it go. Second phase is troops, landing, and potential POW camp, but where? Don't know. That depends on Rader's February.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You haven't lost any carriers?  Wow, what kind of Newb are you?  Most of us promptly set out to get ours sunk when we started playing UV/WitP/AE.  Well done!  If you can maintain a carrier ratio this good (or better if you happen to hit any of his in coming months, via sub or carrier action), you'll be in very good shape to handle offensive activity.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

With regard to rader out-guessing you...well, we all feel that way, and there's some reason for it too.  An experienced player like rader is going to know the most important places, the most vulnerable, the ones he fears.  He will also be able to pick up on little things, like increase in sub activity, recon, patrols, ships, that suggest enhanced Allied interest in an area.

Look at it from his standpoint.  What are his most important areas on his perimeter?  India, Sumatra, Java, Timor, NW Oz, New Guinea, the Marshalls, the Carolines, the Bonins, and the Kuriles.  He'll attend to those, but he can't cover all of them immediately.  And you have an advantage there - a large invasion force comprised of lots of good ships like APA, AP, AK, and LST overed by plenty of carriers can unload quickly.  More often than not, these forces seem to sneak closer to the invasion target without detection than you'd believe is possible.

You'll also need to create at least the appearance of threat to non-targeted locales so that rader has to keep guessing.  This is vital to your mission and requires use of some assets - ships, patrol, long-range recon, subs.

If you do all that, you're likely to succeed in a well-organized invasion unless rader somehow gets everything just right or unless a fatal "telegraphing of intentions" occurs.

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Solomons planned

PS: is that so clear that i'm not willing to work today

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Oct 29-30 1942

Turns keep on flowing...and it's sometimes hard to do them, the AAR, planning and have a RL (job, GF, beers...all that useless stuff!).

However...Rader changed tactic in India. He moved his DDs closer to the coast and put a full Rufe Daitai on LRCAP from Surat. The bait worked well and i lost 25 light bombers on low naval against his CAP...damn me to be so stupid! I have not to be lazy and must change tactic every time a thing works fine...cause Rader is fast to take countermeasures!

However his Netties came again... 70 of them...escorted by 100 Tojos with more 150 Tojos and Oscars on Sweep....losses are light in the air but another CL (Calendon) was torpedoed...ARGH!

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Ok, i did some homework.

As far as i can tell right now, by the beginning of june 1942 i should be able to mass in Aden the following forces for a counterinvasion (without stripping too much the Pacific front):

Infantry:

6th Indian Div
8th Indian Div
9th Aus Div.
22th East African Bde
29th Brit Bde
34th US Inf Rgt
158th US Inf Rgt
(in reserve: coming at Mombasa on the 23.05.1943 the 11th African Div)

Tank units:

31st Armoured Div.
762nd US Tank Bn
763rd US Tank Bn
754th US Tank Bn
193rd US Tank Bn
766th US Tank Bn
767th US Tank Bn
640th US Tank Destr Bn
632nd US Tank Destr Bn
637th US Tank Destr Bn

Plus a bunch of small Australian Tank companies sized units

HQs and Artillery units are still to be decided. I just know that the engineer forces will be provided by the Brits (that already have a lot of base forces parked at Aden), while the artillery will be american.

Now the challenge is to organize the logistic to bring all this stuff to CT and Panama and then to UK to get ready to move to Aden (is UK-Aden shorter than CT-Aden?????)

The first step is to move all the predicted australian units to Perth and to start immediately to move transports to Perth in order to move ASAP to CT.
Then i need to re-group the american units to PH and move them to Panama...problem is that some of them are already operating in the Solomons so it won't be an easy task.

Then i need to take a deep thinking about which transport to use...move them...pick up those units...regroup...provide enough fuel for all these movements...and at the same time let me enough ship capabilities to keep up the flow of supplies and fuel and the troops movements for the pacific theatre...it wil be a real mess!

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Thor's Hammer

Love the anology and love the plan about dropping the whole fleet out of the wormhole when it opens. You would have to store the whole fleet at Plymouth and Rosyth and surly the Jerry's would spy them and alert their allies!

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

About India:

my fears were well felt... we're losing the "grip" over Karachi.
Now i have less than 150 operative fighters and, even if the odds are still in our favour, our ability to protect Karachi is fading away.