angus
Posts: 103
Joined: 9/8/2002 From: Brussels Status: offline
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by CynicAl [B]Back on-topic, I'd say there's definitely a case to be made for a small but real chance of a ship being seriously damaged or destroyed by accident or weather. Something like a .0001% chance (or, probably, lower) of any given ship randomly exploding for no apparent reason; and a similar chance for ships to be damaged or lost in bad weather, modified by ship size and damage and by weather severity. The former might be doable as a modification of the UV Fire Damage routine, the latter as a modification to the Progressive Flooding system. [/B][/QUOTE] Seems good to me, let's just hope the Matrix guys agree ! Accidents add up to quite a lot of sinkings and damage over the several years a campaign would last. I figured out the combat loss:accident ratio for German destroyers and torpedo boats as 5:1. I did the same for all French-built French-flagged destroyers and torpedo boats up to the end of 1942 and for all British-built destroyers under Allied flags for the whole war. I made it 19 French combat losses to 3 accidental and 135 "British" combat losses to 13 accidental. What is really needed is the accident:days at sea ratio, but I haven't a clue how to get that, but I'll try anyway. The RN probably had an average destroyer strength of at least 180 over the whole war and lost 13 ships to accidents. We have about 1750 days, an average of 135 destroyers if we assume 75% of ships are active on any day and 13 accidents in all. So 236250 DD/days is 13 accidents, about .005% chance per day of a particular destroyer being sunk in an accident and X times more of being damaged in one. (*) What X is is anybody's guess, but I'd imagine it's somewhere between 3 and 10. F Anyway the KM was more accident prone, just like I thought. I'd guess the Regia Marina would be around the French/German level, the USN and IJN at or more likely better than the RN level. The Soviets would much worse, along with the Thais and Chinese. Cheers, Angus (*) If you think this is sad, it's not half as bad as knowing that the kinetic energy of a kamikaze B-17 is about the same as a 16in AP.
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