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RE: May Flowers - 10/26/2011 7:33:04 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		I have not gotten a turn back yet and thus I have not suffered from SCLS

But I decided against engaging this turn. The main reason for this is the risk of ended 8 hexes away and getting wacked without being able to launch. Instead I pulled my carriers to the East of Baker Island and will decide then of how to aproach the mass of IJN at Tabetuea.

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 271
RE: May Flowers - 10/26/2011 11:06:46 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		*************************************** 20 MAY 1942 **************************************************

The KB stayed on Patrol over Milli .. I suspect that the KB will support an upcoming invasion in the Gilberts ..\

The night begins with an air raid .. the IJNAF they lose 2 aircraft ..


Night Air attack on Chittagong , at 55,41

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 43 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 16 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 10



Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb Trop x 16
Mohawk IV x 2
Kittyhawk IA x 7


Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
G3M2 Nell: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses



The IJAAF actaully abadoned the raid! We shoot down two more bombers before the run like scared rabbiits!

Morning Air attack on Myitkyina , at 64,42

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 44 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 22



Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 4


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-48-Ib Lily: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses


We hit a tanker no explosiion .. the boom where is the boom!

Sub attack near Emirau Island at 104,121

Japanese Ships
TK Nihon Maru
PB Chiyo Maru #4

Allied Ships
SS Searaven



SS Searaven launches 4 torpedoes at TK Nihon Maru

Ok the IJN and USN are standing off waiting for the other to blink ..This might be an opportunity ..

More later ..

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 272
RE: May Flowers - 10/26/2011 11:18:59 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		This really is a most impressive AAR.

A strategic appreciation was made, a plan conceived, forces marshalled and the limited, strategically relevant objectives defined. Furthermore it fits into an overall strategy which is effective and efficient. I'm not surprised at the high standard of play at all. I'd expect nothing less to be honest based on previous posts elsewhere. I just wanted to post to say I'm an avid reader. I just don't post since you have it all so well in hand.


One slight piece of advice. Kusaie is actually an excellent base from which to negate Truk. Its a dot base but objectively it can be built very quickly with the appropriate engineers and force the main Japanese logistic base back to Saipan/Guam. That'll buy you a couple of additional days of operational freedom if you can force KB to base out of such a retrograde position.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 273
RE: May Flowers - 10/27/2011 3:37:38 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		Thanks for the complement nemo! I am still trying to fathom this game which is the most detailed and complex thing I have yet to put my arms around.

Now for an update. The KB did not move and my submarines are converging to surround the force. The subs will probably get thier butt kicked but it is like Poker .. it is a free card or in this case a possible free shot with a torp ..

The situation below. I am gathering my CV's to the north of Baker Island and continuing this stand off. I think I can push the bowl of jello elsewhere but it is tempting to just go ahead and exchange Queens ..what to do In the meantime submarines!




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Post #: 274
RE: May Flowers - 10/28/2011 12:30:41 AM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		The BB's came to vist Tarawa and killed 300 ... I have 6K there. I am not sure how long the IJ can keep this up. But it is intersting to me

Night Naval bombardment of Tarawa at 136,128

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
BB Hiei
CA Haguro
CA Chokai
CA Chikuma
CA Tone
CL Kitakami
CL Yura


Allied ground losses:
363 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 56 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 10 (2 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Vehicles lost 14 (2 destroyed, 12 disabled)

Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 24
Port hits 2
Port supply hits 2



he sailed right past 3 subamrines no action

A little funny we sent 6 torps into a Jap sub no explosions ..

Sub vs Sub: SS Tambor attacking SS I-28 at 144,118

Japanese Ships
SS I-28, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Tambor



SS Tambor launches 6 torpedoes at 4,000 yards


We previal over the skies of Chittagong ..

Night Air attack on Chittagong , at 55,41

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 87 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 4



Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb Trop x 16
Mohawk IV x 2
Kittyhawk IA x 7


Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses



Ok the bombardment of Tarawa and Tabiteua I susepct will continue . I beleive to let even encourage the IJN to continue this is to my advantage. Time to start staging more forces ..

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Post #: 275
RE: May Flowers - 10/28/2011 2:35:14 AM   
DOCUP


Posts: 3073
Joined: 7/7/2010
Status: offline 		I have to agree with Nemo.

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Post #: 276
RE: May Flowers - 10/28/2011 4:03:16 AM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		*************************************** 22 MAY 1942 ********************************************

The picture below illistrates the situation. I have about 22K supplies to support 19K men of which 6,000 are real troops from the 24th division. The rest are support. I can last 10 months no problem without resupplying. If 10 months from now I cannot resupply I am in deep trouble for other reasons.

The picture also shows that the IJN is heading north to rearm and thus the situation for him is a bombardment every 2 - 3 turns maximum. I can last months at this rate. Invasion is impossible without lots of troops and lot of preperation. This is a great thorn in the side of the LYB's.

The only concern I have is that I think I took a bad beat. I had no less than 4 Dutch Subs where the KB rolled over and I did not get a single submarine attack. either I did something wrong or I got bad die rolls ..

all I can do is build rings of subamrine patrols and hope that just once .. just once bag a CV .. that would be a game changer ..

Ok .. well this turn we continue our patrols and positoning forces. In the land of Oz I am wating for the 19th bdge and then combine the units at Alice Springs. I just moved 6 B-17's to make 10 total. Soon 20 B-17's will pound the IJ and the road to hell.. I mean Darwin i still need a month of positioning ..






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Post #: 277
RE: May Flowers - 10/28/2011 4:44:53 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

I have to agree with Nemo.


Thanks for the kind words Docup!

I think the IJ have just learned that they no longer have the Invasion bonus as specified in 6.3.3.3.2 AMPHIBIOUS UNLOADING "....Note that there is also an “initial operations” bonus for the Japanese during the first 4 months of the war." 4 xAK's are still trying to unload in the DEI .. I have informed the IJ before they try and attack an atoll ..I would not want to ahve an IJ disaster because they did not understand this change ..and think it was the program gone bad ...

This turn was focused on beans, bullets, and butts mainly positioning forces and filling pilot slots. Also fatigue and training ...

I am biding my time and understanding at least the operational plan the IJ has for the Gilberts before further committment of forces outside of my strategic plan .. I am not sure the latest affair was a strategic response as much as to remind me of the current OOB of the IJN


I suspect conflicts in four theaters at once Late Oct 1942 .. Burma, Oz, Solomons, and Gilberts for which the IJ will be hard pressed to respond. I also suspect that the IJ economy will become a problem around this time and choices have to be made.

More later ..

(in reply to DOCUP)
Post #: 278
RE: May Flowers - 10/28/2011 6:06:29 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		************************************************ 22 MAY 1942 ******************************************

Tarawa: He has shown me that the Nell's can reach Tarawa from where they are currently based:

Night Air attack on Tarawa , at 136,128

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 6 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 6



No Japanese losses

Runway hits 2


This is an interesting devleopment. I need to get 16 more aviation support in tarawa before I can really station fighters.

Chittagong:
Night Air attack on Chittagong , at 55,41

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 3



Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb Trop x 16
Mohawk IV x 2
Kittyhawk IA x 7


Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses

1 more Betty down ..

A little recon using ground attack at Katherine:

Morning Air attack on 21st Ind.Mixed Brigade, at 76,128 (Katherine)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 3


Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
12 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


The Flying Fish lets go of 6 .. and one finds its mark ..

Submarine attack near Tanegashima at 102,63

Japanese Ships
xAK Nasusan Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Flying Fish



The sounds of guggling IJN merchant marines could be heard in the background

This is significant because 1) Its a USN Sub .. one cannot ignore the odds no matter how minute that a USN sub can get one home .. 2) its in the Japanese homelands backyard .. that means PC's have to escort these convoy's ..or continue to let me draw a inside straight for free .. A few thousand resources here and there ending up in the East China sea rather than factories ....adds up over time ...

More later ..


(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 279
RE: May Flowers - 10/28/2011 6:59:55 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		Oz Update:

We have been focusing on the Gilberts and a slow change is occuring in the land of Oz.

The picture below shows the development. First, I started moving supplies & forces to Alice Springs on the first alert of an invasion of Darwin. The base is building slowly there. Now we have 1K AV with another 300 AV on its way. This does not include the USA forces in route. Mostly armor. I want an armor engagement out here. My USA TD's vs IJA armor ...

So the IJA is moving 400 AV down the road and once we have the 20 B-17's assembled we will start moving our forces up the road. The B-17's are msotly for recon using long range ground attack. But nothing like B-17's to break up armor columns ...I think Tennent Creek will be in the history books with tourist visting yearly .... First stop the advance .. then cut off the forces from supplies... then destrcution in detail ...




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Post #: 280
RE: May Flowers - 10/29/2011 3:26:36 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		CENPAC: 23 MAY 1942

Below shows the situaiton. The next wave is CVL's and BB's to bombard Tarawa. I have to agree with Nemo. This is a good thing. This uses supplies and fuel that is not going into Homeland Island factories and is not really accomplisihing anything besides demonstrating the awesome power of the IJN.
Meanwhile more LBA has transferred into the area. We have more fighter CAP and now we are moving in the Marine DB's. This will keep the KB or Mini KB here as any unsupported mission will meet a naval airstrike.

This is a much better area than the Solomon's to have a little war of attrition.




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Post #: 281
RE: May Flowers - 10/29/2011 5:34:00 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		****************************************************** 23 MAY 1942 ***************************

BURMA:

We unleash a little hell on an armored unit ..

Morning Air attack on 1st Tank Regiment, at 63,46 , near Lashio

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes


Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 33
Wellington Ic x 16


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 13 (1 destroyed, 12 disabled)

This is a target that deserves more attention ...

CENPAC:

The night begins with the expected attack:

Night Naval bombardment of Tarawa at 136,128

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna
BB Kongo
CA Kako
CA Furutaka
CA Kinugasa
CA Aoba


Allied ground losses:
30 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 7
Port hits 9
Port supply hits 1

Followed up by the air

Morning Air attack on Tarawa , at 136,128

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 9 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 15



Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 2 damaged



Airbase hits 6
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 19

22 Zeros also visted Tarawa ..


We can absorb this for quite awhile .. Because the plan is working ..

Sub attack near Truk at 112,106

Japanese Ships
xAK Yoshida Maru #3, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Seal, hits 1, on fire



xAK Yoshida Maru #3 is sighted by SS Seal
SS Seal attacking xAK Yoshida Maru #3 on the surface

The sub fired 3 salvo's of 6 in the animation .. and then surfaced .. that is aggression!! BTW Agression rating .. 34!
Now he is on fire .. I hope he can make it home ..

Now we are talkin' .. at least we are getting escort reactions .. no torps yet but some action agasint Capitol ships!
ASW attack near Makin at 136,126

Japanese Ships
BB Mutsu
BB Nagato
CL Yubari
CL Tatsuta
CS Chiyoda
DD Asagao
DD Mochizuki
DD Kawakaze

Allied Ships
SS Dolphin


The cuttlefish gets driven away
ASW attack near Ponape at 118,109

Japanese Ships
xAKL Tomozono Maru #3
xAKL Tama Maru #2
xAKL Takunan Maru #10
PB Tama Maru #5

Allied Ships
SS Cuttlefish

So we are in a fight now .. lot's of IJNAF and IJN platforms ..

My thinking The Solomon's and Gilbert's are exactly equal in distance from Truk. The Solomon's have lots more potential IJAAF level 7 bases and level 5+ ports. The Gilbert's and Marshal's require the IJ to build up those bases on atolls ....most level 2 & 3 normal to maximum level 6. There are very few level 4 normal bases in the Marshall's to be built to level 7 [I count 2] , and each base built takes supply and Construction bn's. No level 7 bases and either the IJ limits the number of group's, limits extended range ... and things are very uncoordinated with the bombers/fighters the other possibility to get a lot of air on target is to commit IJNAF resources .. a lot of resources/platforms ... The waters around the ports in the Solomon's are all shallow .. the waters in the Gilbert's & Marshall's are deep ...much better submarine hunting ...Lot's of reasons to have the fight here .. although its pretty bleek for the good guys .. for now .... I sense we are dictating the IJ planning cycle ..

< Message edited by Crackaces -- 10/29/2011 5:38:44 PM >

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 282
RE: May Flowers - 10/29/2011 6:59:50 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline 		Crackaces,

The rationalisations made to date for your operational plans are really only valid because your opponent has demonstrated a noticeable lack of skill. That isn't your fault; you can only play against what is on offer and so far you are easily outplaying your opponent. Against this particular opponent your plans are quite sound and should succeed. But against a quality opponent you would suffer stinging strategic, operational and tactical defeats.

Consider your rationalisations listed in post #282. Fundamentally you are relying on the lack of Japanese level 7 airfields to justify your optimistic assessments. But that is not a relevant consideration. Even though Japan has wasted much time and appears to still require more time to assemble an appropriate riposte, a quality opponent could still destroy the Allied position in the Gilberts (as he could also elsewhere).

1. Level 4 airfields are more than adequate for Japan.

2. With the far superior range of Japanese aircraft, starts off on 7 December 1941 with sufficient developed airfields in the region to obtain air superiority.

3. Any competent Japanese player would have developed Makin airfield to level 2 and that would suffice. When combined with the captured Nauru level 2 airfield, it would be quite easy for Japan to obtain air superiority over Tarawa. This is in addition to the airfields of point (2) above.

4. Because of the time wasted by your opponent, the fight for air superiority will not be as easy as it would have been. Still, if your opponent were to stumble upon the correct operational plan, he can still achieve air superiority.

5. Your estimate of having 10 months supply already on Tarawa may be an accurate assessment against this particular opponent but should he stumble upon the right operational plan, that stockpile could be reduced very, very rapidly and the cost to resupply Tarawa could become quite high.

6. Because you have made the Gilberts the focus of your early Allied dispositions, for Japan the area has actually become a legitimate use of its strategic assets, to wit, the KB. Normally this is an area of no real strategic benefit for Japan, but that is not the case here.

Bottom line is that I expect you to get away with it. Unlike your opponent, at least you have a strategy and your operational/tactical planning in the various theatres is consistent and supportive of your strategy. But your assessment is faulty and would be unravelled by a quality opponent.

Alfred

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 283
RE: May Flowers - 10/29/2011 7:29:24 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Alfred,

To be fair though you can only fight the opponent you're given cause it's the only opponent you've got. At least Crackaces developed a strategic plan and is following it through. Sure it might be picked apart by a first or second tier opponent BUT the very fact he's developed a plan and is following it through puts him ahead of most.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 284
RE: May Flowers - 10/29/2011 7:35:17 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		I'm devastated Alfred .. I am going to need therapy

Thanks for the feedback. I got the notion that the higher level bases were needed because of my experiences in Burma. My guys just did not do what I needed with enough force until I had level 7 bases. That is 3 - 4 bomber and 3 -4 fighter groups. But I suspect where you are leading me is that the IJ could build say 5 level 2 bases disburse the fighter assets, and 1 -2 level 4 bases and project enough airpower in the area to squash this foray....

I think I understand that ..I have no clue how he could draw so much supply that I cannot last until 1943. One thing that is different here is the IJNAF and IJAAF bomber losses thus far. I am not sure how many LYBFB lose over 600 bombers before the end of 1942 scenaraio #1. But I suspect what Alfred is telling me that given a commitment of BB's and Airpower that the losses I am now seeing would be miniscule compared to what is possible ..

Ki-48-Ib Lily Level Bomber 191
G3M2 Nell Level Bomber 183
Ki-21-IIa Sally Level Bomber 153
G4M1 Betty Level Bomber 130

657 Bombers down by May 1942 ...mostly A2A and ops ..

Thus I fear that particular force less .. but the KB .. that is something to worry about ...

However, I still think in terms of getting crushed . I have more advantages in terms of submarine warfare. I have not hit anything in the Solomon's and ahve taken the worse of it in the shallow waters .. in the deep waters in 2 weeks we have sunk 4 xAK's without any reprisal ... I am attriting what he is sending out here which was a part of my plan ...what Alfred is telling me is it is not going to be enough ...

OK .. I have to think about pushing the big bowl of jelly somewhere else

I am also operating under the premise of scenario #1 .. I get sooooo much stuff in 1944 that I cannot lose

< Message edited by Crackaces -- 10/29/2011 8:05:05 PM >

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 285
RE: May Flowers - 10/29/2011 8:17:06 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I'm devastated Alfred .. I am going to need therapy

Thanks for the feedback. I got the notion that the higher level bases were needed because of my experiences in Burma. My guys just did not do what I needed with enough force until I had level 7 bases. That is 3 - 4 bomber and 3 -4 fighter groups. But I suspect where you are leading me is that the IJ could build say 5 level 2 bases disburse the fighter assets, and 1 -2 level 4 bases and project enough airpower in the area to squash this foray....

I think I understand that ..I have no clue how he could draw so much supply that I cannot last until 1943. One thing that is different here is the IJNAF and IJAAF bomber losses thus far. I am not sure how many LYBFB lose over 600 bombers before the end of 1942 scenaraio #1. But I suspect what Alfred is telling me that given a commitment of BB's and Airpower that the losses I am now seeing would be miniscule compared to what is possible ..

However, I still think in terms of getting crushed . I have more advantages in terms of submarine warfare. I have not hit anything in the Solomon's and ahve taken the worse of it in the shallow waters .. in the deep waters in 2 weeks we have sunk 4 xAK's without any reprisal ... I am attriting what he is sending out here which was a part of my plan ...what Alfred is telling me is it is not going to be enough ...

OK .. I have to think about pushing the big bowl of jelly somewhere else


Exactly my point.

In an ideal world, yes having level 7 airfields is a noticeable advantage which can not be fully replicated by an equivalent number of smaller airfields. But, and this is important, Japan starts off with a huge qualitative advantage both in pilots and airframes. Even with the time wasted by your opponent, which dithering has almost certainly allowed the gap to be narrowed considerably whereas with good enemy play, the gap could have been extended, the enemy should still retain a qualitative edge.

As to the supply stockpile, enemy air bombardment alone can cause it to be burned off at a very rapid rate. Two main avenues for burning supply;

(1) the cost of airframe and device replacements. The Logistics 101 thread explains the high cost in supply consumption. I won't go into details here as Crackaces is aware of that thread,

(2) directs hits on airbase and port supply depots. The old supply destruction rate no longer applies, instead the amount of supply destroyed is now dependent on the size of ordnance dropped. However I have previously argued that for ease of determining destruction, the old rate can still be used as a rough approximation. So whilst it would clearly be overstating that a single airfield supply hit has destroyed 1% of the supply stockpile, 2-3 supply hits will in all likelihood be pretty close to destroying 1% of the supply stockpile.

This of course overlooks the consumption of supply by Allied offensive operations, both air and sea, by Allied forces based on Tarawa.

Of course the obvious solution is to send in more supply. But that is where we get into the issue of the Gilberts becoming a valid strategic operation for Japan whereas normally at this stage of the war, they provide little real strategic benefit to Japan.

I'm not saying it won't be good enough, I've already indicated my assessment of your opponent. My point, and I was only presenting the Gilberts theatre as the exemplar, was that you need to be more rigorous in your assumptions otherwise their shortcomings would be exposed against a better quality opponent.

Practice perfect leads to perfect execution.

Alfred

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 286
RE: May Flowers - 10/29/2011 8:42:11 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		One thing I will say in teh IJ's defense . the die rolls in the first month were astounding ...

I sank no less than 30 xAP's & xAK's with USN Submarines .. the first week saw 20 ... all of them full of stuff ... The odds ratio was much better than the 5 to 1 that should have happend ...That put a real damper on operations.

One other thing and that is I think the IJ player was used to WitP and not AE .. I had no clue ..but the first attacks in stormy weather caused disorganized raids and I chopped to pieces the Nell's ... then I did a couple of raids myself and got some more planes on the ground ...

But from the very begining of this thread I decided on the Gilberts [for all the wrong reasons ] for my opening gamits and have followed through with this plan. The Marshals in late 1943 and eventually Formosa ...We shall see how I execute ..

If its 1% then eventually there is diminishing returns. I did not understand this at alll .. but so far its 1 or 2 supply hits a day .. plus 1500 supply per month to sustain the bodies .. I have 19,750 supply there right now to keep things alive.

But .... I know all the IJ supply is not out here to sustain the operations and has to be moved with the AKE's. That will take ships and time. I will coninue to harrarss this movement as my combat reports have demonstrated. We shall see over the next two months how that plays out. But in my blissfully ignorant world there is a lot more exposure to the IJN here than conducting a standard Solomon's campaign.

But ..certainly I see I have kicked over a hornets nest for sure ...

The Land of Oz shall be the next thorn in the IJ's side ..

< Message edited by Crackaces -- 10/29/2011 8:46:59 PM >

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 287
RE: May Flowers - 10/30/2011 12:19:01 AM   
DOCUP


Posts: 3073
Joined: 7/7/2010
Status: offline 		You have had some lucky die rolls, but you have had a plan and you have stuck to it (as Nemo stated above).  Your Op Order was solid.  I like reading here you put ur plans out and work your way thru it makes it easy to follow and learn.

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Post #: 288
RE: May Flowers - 10/30/2011 3:23:53 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

You have had some lucky die rolls, but you have had a plan and you have stuck to it (as Nemo stated above).  Your Op Order was solid.  I like reading here you put ur plans out and work your way thru it makes it easy to follow and learn.


We shall see over the coming months how solid that plan was

We did a beans bullets and butts turn. More refinement of the convoy routes. As I am sending more stuff out to the outpost I am noticing that Pearl Harbor is getting more hungry for supplies. I have to get more xAK's moving ..

We that was besides putting 100 aircraft on LRCAP over Tarawa (and everything else within 6 hexes) I suspect maybe 10 aircraft engage against his 24 and they get creamed .. but I have to put up resistance as one side effect of flying off CV's is operational losses ... and the only way this happends is if they fly ..The more the KB flies the more likely that one or two bang the rounddown or something ...

More later ..

(in reply to DOCUP)
Post #: 289
RE: May Flowers - 10/30/2011 5:24:27 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		*************************************** 24 MAY 1942 ******************************************

CENPAC:

No bombardment this turn. Rather the Nell's made their run after Fighter sweeps. 100 planes on LRCAP did nothing but get fatigued. This is a problem I had not anticipated. No interception whatsoever from afar ..I was hoping at least a small engagement and maybe 1 Nell shot down. Blunting this is not going to work so we have to get imaginative and start pushing the envelope.

Morning Air attack on Tarawa , at 136,128

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 15



Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 1 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 7

BURMA:

I have the 1st Tank Regiment under daily attack. It seems to be disabling 11 vehicles at a time. These recover more slowly in Burma and use supply. More units are coming into theater and we shall be in place for an offensive in '43.

Morning Air attack on 1st Tank Regiment, at 63,46 , near Lashio

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 39 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes


Allied aircraft
Wellington Ic x 16


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)


More later as we figure out how long the IJN will keep up the pressure given my submarines at Tarawa .. I got a chase off from the KB this turn ..it only takes one time for a submarine to get a shot ..

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 290
RE: May Flowers - 10/30/2011 6:50:55 PM   
DOCUP


Posts: 3073
Joined: 7/7/2010
Status: offline 		How long till Tarawa's airfield is open?  Got to love watching a LYB unit slowly die.  Well for me I'm watching it thru you. 

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 291
RE: May Flowers - 10/30/2011 7:46:01 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

How long till Tarawa's airfield is open?  Got to love watching a LYB unit slowly die.  Well for me I'm watching it thru you. 


Well the LYB did pull off a good operation on Tarawa. They started with a bombardment of 6 BB's and supporting cast which took the field to 36% disabled. The Nell's are just enough to match the repairs at this point. The KB prevents any reinforcement. So I might say "A fine mess you got me in Ollie!" The surprise for me is for some reason in 3 days out of 100 aircraft zero zero! have tried to intercept .. although 6 hexes (240 miles) is a long ways away ... This is not a good development for the good guys. Given the steady rain of terror and no ability to stop it ... I figure 4 months maximum now of supporting this operation without a response. Right now I cannot resupply Tabetuea let alone Tarawa without substaintal risk ..

On the other hand ... I am getting chase aways where escorts are reacting to my subs .. the picture of any of my CV escorts intercepting a submarine would send chills down my spine because that means a die roll occured and well "I" menaing IJ got lucky .. that turn but it only takes once to ruin the IJ day ..

Anyway .. we have been preping for Lunga .. I have been avoiding this front because .. well I hate the Solomon's .. but if the KB coninutes to park off Tarawa for more than a month .. I will execute that plan. Put 3 divisions on Lunga and follow up with BF's and fighters .. opening another front for the IJ to react to .. then go back to building our real thrust in the Gilberts ..


(in reply to DOCUP)
Post #: 292
RE: May Flowers - 10/30/2011 11:11:13 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		The diagram below shows the KB moving out of the Gilbert's at cruise speed. At least they are at maximum distance from Tarawa. The Nell's and Zero's are quite enough to keep Tarawa supresed. The port is 40% damaged, the airfield 37%, and the runway 22%. This has been pretty consistent since the visit from the BB's. The good news .. 21,898 Supply ..

I am thinking that the concentration of submarines and the moonlight going to 78% along with chase offs started the IJ thinking about getting an unlucky die roll .

We have started unloading the Pacific Oceans Commander in an undisclosed location .. if events let them they will relocate to Tabateua where the 5 hex influence will be handy ...

In the land of Oz we built 6th & 7th Divisions along with replacing the inept Corps Commander. Alice Springs is very near level 5 airfield and the US are sending more infrastructure as we write this note .. The sooner Alice Springs is level 7 -- the sooner we can amass true hell over the skies of Darwin ...

more later ..




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 293
RE: May Flowers - 10/31/2011 3:23:46 AM   
DOCUP


Posts: 3073
Joined: 7/7/2010
Status: offline 		Do you have any APDs?  This is a fast transport area, tabiteuea should have a good AF.  Might be enough to hold off or atleast hurt the KB if he came calling.

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 294
RE: May Flowers - 10/31/2011 3:09:26 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		Ya .. I have been holding off moving stuff into Tabateua until I know what exactly is theIJ plan here ... show of force .. interdiction .. and exactly what the force projection is ... at PM I lost 4 APD with Nell's and Betty's I do not want to lose full ones

But you are quite correct that it is possible to get in and out of range there at night .. give me two or three more turns for things to mature ...

(in reply to DOCUP)
Post #: 295
RE: May Flowers - 10/31/2011 3:22:54 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		With Tarawa being a Level 2 airfield why don't you just fly in 100 fighters? Use them to cover some naval assets at Tarawa ( multiple PT boat TFs ) and place some submarine-placed mines. Thicken the submarine cordon - I like to have at least 4, ideally 5, concentric layers of submarines between a base I am trying to protect from bombardments and the likely ingress route of a bombardment TF.

Additionally without risking APDs you can use:
1. bombers to fly in supplies. For every 2,000 lbs of payload a bomber can fly in 1 ton of supplies per day. This means that a B-29 ( which I know you don't have but it is the only Allied payload I can remember off the top of my head ) can fly in 10 tons of supplies per day per plane. Commit 100 of them to a mission and you can fly in 1,000 tons of supplies per day.

2. Catalinas and transports to fly in troops. You should be relatively easily able to fly in more engineers to repair the port and runway. Sure they'll leave their heavy equipment behind but you can always FT TF that in later once you have a bit of aircover built up.


Bottom line though you CAN bring more troops and supplies in even in the current situation and you shouldn't be relying on LR CAP, place some fighters there, thicken the waters with mines, PT boats and concentric barriers of submarines and pretty soon you'll find he no longer wants to bombard at all.

One other thing: 50% CAP really wears out your pilots quickly. If you've got good radar you can happily set the CAP to 20% or 30% and still scramble your planes in plenty of time to intercept.


You are fortunate your opponent is very timid. I'd have hit Tabiteaua's port by now and bombarded the airfield with BBs. He seems to be very focussed on contesting your strength with his at the front lines and doing very little at all into your operational depth.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 296
RE: May Flowers - 10/31/2011 3:44:50 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		Ahhhh I pulled out a hundred fighters from Tarawa thinking they would die on teh ground in the bombardment mission ...plus I have only 16 aviation support there .. the unloading of a base force was interupted [quite rudely I might add] by the arrival of 6 BB's and the KB

But we have 2 construction units working fevorishly to try and repair 40% damage ..

I think his raid on Colombo is influencing his decision process .. right now he sees 100+ fighters over Tabeteua for which he is going to lose 10 - 20 zeros plus the flak I have there. Plus his PA range cannot see completely into the battlespace I have the forces to just run up in the middle of a strike and catch him and he cannot see the full 15 hexes past Tabeteua (run 9 full speed and launch from 6 away with added escorts from Tabetieua ) .. and then even if he makes that risk .. I just come back with more stuff when he leaves .. I am thinking that he has lost quite a few KB stuff in the prior raids and does not want to waste it here .. . Instead my thought is a projection of power. Hit Tarawa with BB's and sustain damage with LB's. hhe LB's are just enough right now to keep Tarawa supresed ..

So in short he has touched a hot stove one too many times and desires to remain safe and let me make the mistake ... which is very possible ..


Now we have done two of those things .. PT boats are holding off unitl I can get more fuel at Tabetuea ...But I think the concentric rings of DUTCH submarines have done the trick ..two chase offs was enough .. but I will see this turn ...

I moved another 20 LB's to Canton Island for the next run to Brisbine ... it takes an extra two days because I wait unitl repairs are made and then the next run ...I do not want little breadcrumbs everywhere ..

More later ..

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 297
RE: May Flowers - 10/31/2011 6:50:23 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		************************************************ 25 MAY 1942 *******************************************

CENPAC:

Well it happened .. but every AFB that reads this thread will know what did not happen ..

Sub attack near Kusaie Island at 128,119

Japanese Ships
CV Junyo
BB Mutsu
BB Nagato
CL Yubari
CS Chiyoda
DD Yugumo
DD Asagao
DD Mochizuki
DD Kawakaze

Allied Ships
SS Tambor



SS Tambor launches 6 torpedoes at CV Junyo

But alas 2 hit no kaboom .. where is the kaboom??!!!??

The Nell's come calling to Tarawa ...

Morning Air attack on Tarawa , at 136,128

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 15



Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 2 damaged


Allied ground losses:
4 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 16

I am seeing the same 15 despite flak damage .. no operational losses yet to this group :(

JAPAN:


Submarine attack near Amami Oshima at 98,62

Japanese Ships
xAK Nagato Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS O23



xAK Nagato Maru is sighted by SS O23
SS O23 launches 2 torpedoes at xAK Nagato Maru


---------------------------------------------

Submarine attack near Amami Oshima at 98,62

Japanese Ships
xAK Nagato Maru, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS O23
........................


Ahhh another one bites the dust ..

My opponet has decided to take over the submarines because in the shallow shoals of Chittagong this submarine surfaces ..

Submarine attack near Chittagong at 55,41

Japanese Ships
SS I-25, hits 1

Allied Ships
xAKL Kini, Shell hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage



xAKL Kini is sighted by SS I-25
SS I-25 attacking xAKL Kini on the surface

Then near Madras ..

Submarine attack near Madras at 35,43

Japanese Ships
SS I-32

Allied Ships
xAK Pellicula, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage



xAK Pellicula is sighted by SS I-32
SS I-32 launches 2 torpedoes at xAK Pellicula


---------------------------------------------

Submarine attack near Madras at 35,43

Japanese Ships
SS I-32

Allied Ships
xAK Clan Lamont, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

She is sunk ..

Off the coast of SF a convoy aut-returning finds a submarine in the wrong spot ..

Submarine attack near San Francisco at 215,69

Japanese Ships
SS I-7, hits 1

Allied Ships
xAKL Mauna Ala, Shell hits 45, heavy fires, heavy damage

She is also sunk ..

OZ:


Morning Air attack on 21st Ind.Mixed Brigade, at 76,128 (Katherine)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 5


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
25 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



We need more bombers! and more are a comin'

Now .. CHINA!


Ground combat at Wenchow (89,58)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 23033 troops, 204 guns, 84 vehicles, Assault Value = 987

Defending force 33075 troops, 159 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1398

Japanese adjusted assault: 302

Allied adjusted defense: 3631

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 12 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3655 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 319 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 43 disabled
Guns lost 26 (1 destroyed, 25 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
190 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled


Assaulting units:
17th Division
22nd Division
56th Infantry Brigade

Defending units:
86th Chinese Corps
49th Chinese Corps
70th Chinese Corps
100th Chinese Corps
25th Group Army
Big victory for the Chineese Nationalist over the criminal IJA! A Shock Attack back I think will push them out ..

OK we shall see next turn .. but that close call .. ok !P(.80) ^2 or !P(.64) ... 3:2 against but has to send shivers down the IJN's spine ...It only takes one to make my day

NOTE: Just to clarify each torp has a 20% chance of hitting which means that 80% of the chances will miss or 1 - P(success). The problem I am illistrating that although each attempt is low probability the IJN CV has to dodge every one of the trials. So its P(failure) * P(Failure) *P(failure) ... each time is .80 but calcualting dodging every hit becomes an "AND" equation of independent events. Just two torp hits brought changing this game to 3:2. I am not at all saying like the casino tries to do with roulette that the fact that I have misses ...someday I am going to hit ... To the best of my knowledge each torp is an independent event....

< Message edited by Crackaces -- 11/1/2011 2:35:12 PM >

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 298
RE: May Flowers - 10/31/2011 6:53:57 PM   
DOCUP


Posts: 3073
Joined: 7/7/2010
Status: offline 		lol.  Yea it only takes one.  Id like to see my sub decide to launch a TT at a carrier.

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 299
RE: May Flowers - 11/1/2011 4:58:30 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		**************************************************** 26 MAY 1942 ****************************************

Lots of submarine attacks but no joy ..

Sub attack near Eniwetok at 125,109

Japanese Ships
AO Toho Maru
AO Shinkoku Maru
DD Wakaba

Allied Ships
SS Searaven



SS Searaven launches 4 torpedoes at AO Toho Maru
---------------------------------------------

Sub attack near Eniwetok at 125,109

Japanese Ships
AO Shinkoku Maru
AO Toho Maru
DD Wakaba

Allied Ships
SS Searaven

SS Searaven launches 4 torpedoes at AO Shinkoku Maru

This tells me something .. These oilers are comming into theater so he has yet another raid in mind or at least will support capitol ships...Ilove this really from my perspecitve because given current traffic of 5 leaving and 3 coming that is about 10K - 20K of fuel units that did not go into the economic machine but was wasted out here to punish the 24th Inf Dvision. In my mind every drop spent here is a drop wanted in 1944 ...

Another off of the Home Islands ..

Submarine attack near Shikuka at 126,45

Japanese Ships
xAK Otake Maru

Allied Ships
SS Saury



xAK Otake Maru is sighted by SS Saury
SS Saury launches 2 torpedoes at xAK Otake Maru


---------------------------------------------

Submarine attack near Shikuka at 126,45

Japanese Ships
xAK Shinryu Maru

Allied Ships
SS Saury



xAK Shinryu Maru is sighted by SS Saury
SS Saury launches 2 torpedoes at xAK Shinryu Maru

ASW:

I have discovered two submarines working SF .. and that is why my plan to go northward failed .. I will have to clear out a path ..

ASW attack near San Francisco at 217,72

Japanese Ships
SS I-27

Allied Ships
DD Lamson
DD Dent
DD Schley



SS I-27 is sighted by escort

At Wenchow I was hoping for something like 1K a piece causualites and not 4:1 .. so I will go back to the defense ..

Ground combat at Wenchow (89,58)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 32035 troops, 159 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1378

Defending force 23295 troops, 222 guns, 84 vehicles, Assault Value = 673

Allied adjusted assault: 2831

Japanese adjusted defense: 1531

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
489 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 32 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled


Allied ground losses:
1660 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 219 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 22 (2 destroyed, 20 disabled)



I bombed variious places with little reported results .. at Lashio I saw flaming spots on the periphery which usually means lost veichles but no joy in the combat report ..

Now TARAWA:

Only 12 come to visit today ...

Afternoon Air attack on Tarawa , at 136,128

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 15 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 12



Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 1 damaged



Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 7


Over time we can see how many of these friagile airplanes he can keep in the air ..

Over teh skies of Chittagong the Betty's made thier presence known ..but flew at 9K which is level bombing and not 6K ..

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Chittagong at 55,41

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 18


18 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 9000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb


Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 5 damaged

Allied Ships
xAKL Lee Sang


One of those Betty's I bet wil go to the scrap heap ...

OK this turn will be less exciting .. just more sending forces into postions and letting the IJ do their thing ...

Better players would have made the DEI a much more intersting theater but I had no intention day one of defending this place or investing reosurces. It will haunt me from the fact the IJ will be able to free up platforms to do evil .. but on the other hand I did not waste forces away with my sophomoric understanding of the game at that point in time... It is a very key thing in developing strategy .. whether to conquor the world or as a business strategy .. one has to plan what they can execute and not what somebody else can execute .. it might be imperfect but .. if well planned . it will be feasible ...

One thing that the invasion of Darwin accomplished ... the AUS I Corps will not be using their TOE in the jungles in 1943 .. rather we will be killing LYB's in the open terrain of Daily Waters ..

Finally .. rebuilding "dead units" is kind of non-intutive in my mind. One goes to the Dead units screen in the infromation panel .. all the unit will be undefined .. once you click the unit .. then the PP's will show .. then you right click to pay the piper ..Sometime between 21-36 days the unit will show up ..and start taking on replacements and TO&E ..I paid for the 22nd and 23rd AUS Bdge's to complete the I AUS Corps .. which will form the center of Oz at Alice Springs ...

The other thing I am getting a hold of is pilot training using restricted units. It seems like DUH! But I am training to 50 exp using the restrcited units and then dropping them into the reserve pool to fill my "training" units in theater. There they pick up the skiils they need in "combat".[Like bombing undefended targets] For example, my bombing runs in Oz are from pilots trained in the Idaho units . now their experince is aorund 60 bombing accuracy 50% . soon I will withdraw these bombers, but keep the pilots for the next units into theater. .. a lot of clicking but I have a somewhat trained force in 1942 to project some power into the battlespace ...

Godspeed AFB's!

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 300
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