BletchleyGeek
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Joined: 11/26/2009
From: Living in the fair city of Melbourne, Australia
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Turn 4 – 10 July 1941
We enter the third week of the war with a somewhat more positive outlook and more confidence on the fighting spirit of the Red Army. Q-Ball has achieved a few important victories, conquering Pskov ,establishing as predicted a foothold on the land bridge and taking care of the chaos I had created in the South. He's also done something I certainly wasn't expecting just north of Odessa.
There were 88 battles during Q-Ball's turn which turned out to be 1 Shatter, 14 Routs, 51 Retreats, 10 Surrenders and 12 Held. This is a significant slow down in the tempo of Axis offensive operations, there have been 20 battles less. The logistic issues I think Q-Ball has in the Ukraine and the lack of targets have both contributed to this decrease.
Operational Situation Report
The Finns start their offensive crushing 7th Army positions east of the Janisjarvi lake
isolating in the process the 168th Rifle Division and really putting between a rock and hard place 19th Rifle Corps' 142nd Rifle Division. That hurts, especially the latter, since it's a pretty good division. It will be tough to cover the Svir river line.
There was no build-up of 4. PzGruppe, the railhead seems that was well beyond the 25MP limit, so German operations around Pskov have been certainly limited
I ArmeeKorps 1st and 11th Divisions assaulted 1st Mech Corps positions in Pskov and its vicinity clearing out the city with little losses. Only one motorized division - 8th PzDiv – has taken part in the attacks, clearing the eastern bank of the Velikaya. The 3rd Tank Division repulsed two attacks from the German forces, having to retreat into the marshes east of Pskov. Northern Air Command recon squadrons detect the bulk of the 18. and 16. Armees approaching the area, as well as a whole Luftflotte worth of hastily setup airfields just west of Pskov.
Being Leningrad the main show for AGN, 16. Armee advances with two ArmeeKorps abreast in the general direction of Velikiye Luki
engaging and defeating without trouble the screening force I had left around the marshes at the fountains of the Sinyaya River.
The battle for the crossing of the Dnepr has just started, with the 3. PzGruppe forcing a bulge into the land bridge
57th and 49th PzKorps, supported by 5th ArmeeKorps infantry – that arrived with MP's enough to launch some hasty attacks – defeat three 20th Army's divisions and achieve a 20 miles deep penetration just south of Vitebsk. To the south, 8th ArmeeKorps 8th Infantry division takes Mogilev off the march, routing the paratroopers I had left behind. Surprisingly, 2. PzGruppe does not push towards Zhlobin. Guys, I'm really seeing HQ build ups pretty much everywhere.
On the plains of the northwestern Ukraine the drama of the Proskurov pocket seems to be drawing to a fairly quick end
The infantry of the 6th Armee nails with nine inch nails the lid of the Proskurov gigantic coffin while the 24. PzKorps, which surely was pretty low on fuel, can only do an anemic push towards Zhitomir, not daring to attack the city nor staying within Soviet ZOC.
Rather than pushing towards Kiev, as I was expecting since that would have surely trapped yet another good slice of Southwestern Front, Q-Ball decides to go southeast, towards Kirovograd
and also somewhat surprisingly, he bypasses Cherkassy. Note the finger just northeast of Zhashkov, looks like Q-Ball tried to make a mini-pocket there but thought twice. Why is Q-Ball pushing in that direction, rather than towards Kiev?
Seems he's after a reenactment of the disastrous Uman pocket so he can get a free ride to Dnepropetrovsk. This was a bold move, and I mean to make Q-Ball regret it. I think it's quite feasible, especially with all of the Southern Front 2nd Cavalry Corps in the area. In Soviet Russia, there isn't such a thing as a free ride.
Industry Evacuation (Part One)
This turn I have to do a lot of troop movement, to anticipate Q-Ball maneuvers, so I spend 42,000 rail points evacuating the 7 Armament factories left in Poltava. I'll come back to this after operations and troop movement is executed.
[image]Operations: General Considerations[/image]
It's pretty clear that Q-Ball is aiming at securing the Donbass quickly in this game. However, I'm not sure that going there along the southern bank of the Dnepr is a better idea than going there along the northern bank, teaming up with 3. and 2. PzGruppe in a massive sweep to reach the Orel – Kursk – Kharkov line really quickly. Very much like in chess, dominating the center of the board is important, though not key.
Q-Ball position in the center allows him a lot of flexibility. He's got quite a few interesting options whatever I do. If I decide to hold fast on the eastern bank of the Dnepr, he might well go for a massive encirclement of Western Front forces deployed, with a long pincer starting out of his Orsha bulge and going southeast, and a shorter pincer going northeast through the Rogachev – Zhlobin sector.
The first possible plan to counter that possibility can be broken down into achieving two things. First, charge into a few selected of his motorized units in the bulge to menace his LOC or force him to do a deliberate attack to make any headway. Second, make sure that if anyone forces a crossing through Zhlobin, he won't go far after that. If this fails, he'll get his encirclement.
The second possible plan is to just pull back towards the east. But then, nothing will prevent him from just darting ahead and snatching Smolensk with 3. PzGruppe, as the 2. PzGruppe breaks through the Zhlobin – Smolensk axis, threatening, again, with a massive encirclement. Seems like I'd have the same result, but things would be much easier for him. None of the flanks wouldn't be bolstered by a major river.
In the south things are much clearer. I have to bug out from the stretch of land I hold north and northwest of Zhitomir. It's too easy that the Zhitomir “peninsula” becomes a trap. 2. PzGruppe could push southeast rather than northeast, which is indeed a huge and a tad too untimely gamble. But better safe than sorry.
The other goals there are also clear: encircle and attack when possible his spearheads just east of Kirovograd and north of Odessa. Even if the German infantry makes me pay dear for that, I think it will be a worthy sacrifice. The German Moloch wants his due
Operations: North
The battle up north was lost before it even started, so I pull back some elements from the 7th Army quickly towards the Svir line
On the isthmus I relieve the isolated Rifle Division and get the few forces I can move into blocking positions. I think I'll lose two divisions, perhaps three.
Operations: Northwest & Leningrad
I keep in mind ComradeP observations, but I bet on surprising Q-Ball by leaving Tallinn garrisoned. Besides the flaw that ComradeP so switfly spotted, now I'm also starting to think that those two divisions will be badly needed in Leningrad. Tarhunnas made a good observation regarding the hills, those are nice spots to stand up. However, in two other games I manned the hills, and got surprised by a German lighting strike, losing the forts. I'm playing on the safe side here, perhaps too safe.
I try to put as many ZOCs between 4. PzGruppe and the Luga river, as MP's allowed. I made a mistake moving the airborne brigade and the rifle division in the center, moving other stuff before realizing it, doh!
I think I've overdone the defense south of Pskov. My money would go for the Pskov – Luga axis for his advance, but who knows.
Operations: Smolensk Battle Begins
The battle for Smolensk and the crossing of the upper Dnepr starts with a bang. I order 20th Army to assault the positions of the two most forward German divisions, 19th PzDiv and 20th Motor Div
the battles have been quite fierce. 19th PzDiv was substantially damaged
The success here – besides having the 1:1 → 2:1 rule - was that 19th PzDiv, very agreeably, ended his turn adjacent to the 1st Motorized Divisions. And these little critters pack some punch if you get too near. 20th Motorized got 10% losses but managed to knock out half the tanks I had launched against it
This division was a bit run down, it was showing CV of 5 (which was actually 6). I'm actually liking quite a bit the “surprises” with the newest changes to FOW. It really spices things up.
Operations: Ukraine
Looks like last the two turns developments have allowed me to regain a bit my balance in the important Zhitomir – Kiev axis
I think I can put up some fight for Kiev. Note I said “some” not “much”. Tovarich Robinovitch at the Politburo has been making him self a pain in the rearguard, so we award him a well-deserved comission as zampolit to the Proskurov pocket. He annoys the men there so much that these, sick with hearing the tovarich tirades, try to escape from the encirclement. It was quite a long shot, but a Cavalry division stood ready to capitalize a “lucky” retreat by the GrossDeutschland regiment,
which didn't materialize. I have also devoted some time to make sure the Germans won't do much next turn on the Uman – Cherkassy axis
I'm no fan of bringing unfit troops close to the firing line but I didn't had much option, I felt I needed to have some presence just opposite Cherkassy. Note as well how I'm trying to strangle the German spearhead, but I can't get to hold it with both hands at the same time. The tip of the spear is 53 MP's away from the railhead, and his mates are, according to the UI, 19 MP's away from the railhead.
The opportunity to make life hard to the 3rd PzKorps was just too tempting, and ditched my Odessa plan completely
I hit with both 9th Rifle Corps divisions the Romanian Armored Division, which happened to be covering the PzKorps flank
26th NKVD Regiment, rushes northwest – seems most of the athletism Soviet team at Berlin'36 were in that unit – as well as a Cavalry Division, to cut off the LOC of those two Panzer Divisions who had really startled me.
Factory Evacuation II
After moving a bunch of troops around on rails, I find myself with 84,000 railcap points, which I use to get out 13 out of the 16 armament points from Kharkov, as well as a couple of the Sukhoi-2 factories.
Fortifications
This turn I got 150 AP's because the Reserve Front became active, which are invested into bunkers, mines and dragonteeth. With that I have managed to fortify the part of the Donets basin I want to really to keep until Winter:
and prepare as well part of the defenses for Moscow
I gave priority to the Donbas basically because the terrain up there around Moscow is much more favorable for the defense.
Overall thoughts
Looking back at what I wrote at the beginning of the turn AAR, I think I was overly pessimistic about what I was able to do with the Red Army. It turned out I could quite a few things! One important sidenote is that out of the 4 successful attacks I have done this turn, 3 were due to the 1:1 → 2:1 rule. Even largely outnumbering the defending Germans, their awesome quality makes Nelson sound his “Only numbers annihilate” to be a rant he vented off after drinking too much grog :-)
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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 
Anyways, good luck! 
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