BletchleyGeek
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Joined: 11/26/2009
From: Living in the fair city of Melbourne, Australia
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Turn 6 – 24 July 1941
A new turn, with the usual mix of catastrophe and some slight glimmers of hope. The last two turns have been especially tough on the Red Army, which has suffered over 600,000 casualties, 400,000 of them POWs from the reduced pockets. Operationally I'm being bested time and again by Q-Ball, he's really now “on the ball” with respect to flank security and other stuff I'll be commenting next.
I'm carefully tracking both sides losses and I'm noticing that German AFV strength is already down to two thirds of what it was at the start of Barbarossa, with the permanent loss of about 1,300 AFVs. Almost 400 of these correspond with the bad jokes that are the Panzer I and Panzer II. The other 900 are fairly uniformly spread about the more useful PzIII, Pz38(t) and Pz IV models. Comparing with previous GC's I've played as the Soviet, I see that Q-Ball has lost slightly over 200 AFVs than the average (small sample size and all that, of course). I guess this is due to the counterattacks I've launched, which have exacted a toll on the invaders.
Overall this turn Q-Ball has engaged into 106 combats with a success ratio of 83%. This is Q-Ball lowest so far (highest was last turn with 96%). Veterans from World At War might remind that VP count for scenarios depended as well on comparing both sides success ratios. Indeed, it's a good “hint” about how well one is performing. As the Soviet, the effect of the 1:1 → 2:1 rule, which somewhats precludes rational estimation of final combat odds, and being limited to do a few “rational” attacks each turn, makes the statistic for the Soviet much less significant.
By the way, I'm posting the spreadsheet I use to keep track of several statistics I perceive as informative here:
for those interested. In any case, the more people who look at the data, the more likely someone will spot something odd going on. And if other people keeping AARs do this we might be all contributing to making WitE better by helping the devs to spot weird stuff.
Operational Situation: The Far North and Leningrad
As I expected, the Finns do not miss the opportunity to bag another Rifle Division. In the isthmus things are under control, although it was a close call. The 43rd Rifle Division managed to contain two Finnish infantry divisions bent on isolating the 123rd Rifle Division which was covering the coast just south of Vyborg
The bold offensive led by Vatutin has managed to buy some direly needed time for Leningrad, Q-Ball was forced to move in the infantry in strength, and 4. PzGruppe had to adopt a tighter defensive formation
which gives me some time to setup more solid defenses around Leningrad. However, the cost paid by the brave Northwestern Front units, over 40,000 casualties along their commander, N. Vatutin
the sight of his burly figure poring over operational maps will be missed by fellow Generals and staff officers :(
Operational Situation: The Upper Dnepr
Heavy fighting in the north, and heavy fighting along the Dnepr as well. On the land bridge, 3. PzGruppe has taken it easy, this turn again. 20th Army attacks have put some hurt on the PzGruppe leading PzKorps, but I think Q-Ball is looking forward to exploit my offensive stance on Soviet matters and lure me into a trap
more so, when I look at what he's been doing northeast and southeast of Mogilev. This looks like the first step in a double scissors-like maneuver to destroy the bulk of Western Front forces. I am not going to comply: I think I've won some very valuable time already, and there's no need to fight any harder for my current positions. It's also obvious that the overall situation is beyond repair. Time to pack and fall back towards Smolensk.
Operational Situation: The Ukraine
Here Q-Ball is putting a hell of a show. Getting to the Dnepr allows him to get his center and southern efforts to support each other. And what's east of the Dnepr? A vast plain where I can only play a very nasty game of chicken.
Kiev has fallen to 2. PzGruppe forces in the Ukraine, which have cleared the city and the western bank with very light losses
It's obvious that 2. PzGruppe is aiming at rejoining his kamerads further north, while pushing towards the general direction of Orel and Kursk. Not good. But, of course, it gets worse. Downstream Q-Ball has finally established a strong bridgehead around Cherkassy
well, not really strong, but it's telling that he has the two divisions pointing towards Poltava and Kharkov. I think he's expecting me to retreat eastwards, and keep pursuing. The 18th Army, which was formed up wasn't prepared enough to hinder in any meaningful way German operations. He's also being more prudent: I had left the 16th Army around Poltava to strike at his right flank if he decided to ride rough northwards.
Last turn I had a bad feeling about forming up Southern Front in a hedgehog while retreating it east. I couldn't retreat east as much as I wanted because I would lose cohesion... those few hexes that Q-Ball converted west of Kirovograd have been perhaps the cheapest thing he's done for the most benefit so far
9th and 29th Army have been trapped by combining combat and maneuver. Q-Ball has herded my hedgehog into destruction and has adopted himself a hedgehog to prevent me causing too much trouble. The Southern Front has ceased to be an operative combat force, and the door to the Crimea and the Donbass lies wide open
Factory Evacuation
This turn I get 132,085 railcap points. How to best use this? Looking at the figures I see I've lost already 10% of the Soviet Union Heavy Industry, and 6% of Armaments. This is substantial damage, especially regarding Heavy Industry. Looking at the map, I think I need to evacuate the Heavy Industry out of Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye
I don't think I can accumulate enough CV to push back the PzDiv that has ZOC on Krivoi Rog, so I decide to evacuate 5 HI points from Dnepropetrovsk and 4 ARM for (74,000 railcap points total) and reserve the rest for troop movements (I need to do a lot of them this turn as well). Any leftovers will be used to evacuate HI from Zaporozhye.
Operations: General Discussion
I'm really trying to plan ahead and anticipate where are going to be the major battles, not next turn, but from Turn 15. I've been showing you some screenshots already, where you could see I was concentrating the newly formed divisions and the reinforcements from the Far East around three major hubs: Moscow, Kharkov and Stalino.
So far, I've been very reluctant to push everything to the front as fast as possible. I've never been too satisfied by that approach. One thing is that the Axis advances force you to do so, and another different thing is to charge like a bull into a red cape, paying little attention to the stiletto the Axis player – actually, the many stilettos – has ready to stick into your back. Now it's time to put up a coherent plan together.
Bold red lines show the lines I'm looking forward to defend in force, no matter what the losses that might entail
when possible I will try to make best use of river lines, though east of Orel and Kursk I don't think I'll able to hold to anything solid at all. I also expect that Q-Ball's efforts will be directed either North or South. I won't be building any FR's west of the Moscow – Orel – Kursk – Kharkov – Stalino line, I think that will be a waste of AP's, since there will be very little time to fortify anything west of the line.
I need to retreat not too much, not too little. Timing is of the essence. If Q-Ball overcomes my resistance on the outer perimeter well before turn 10 in all of the points I've marked on the map – and that's very possible – I'll be knee deep into trouble. And of course, counterattack, as much as possible focusing on motorized units.
What about the north? Well, I will devote as many troops – securing the Svir line as wel - and try to fight as long as possible for Leningrad, but well, I think my turn 2 failure has really doomed my possibilities of avoiding a link-up between the Finns and the German Army.
Operations
Several brigades and divisions are rushed to the Svir line
I think I will have plenty of time to defend this line, the Finns have trouble negotiating their way southeast. As soon as I start to get brigades, I will replace the divisions I have had to bring up here. I'm not getting very creative for Leningrad
and I lay, literally, a red carpet for Q-Ball to walk into the city. The 27th Army – the bit of yellow to the northwest – is trying to retreat across Northern Front line. Its destination is the Volkhov river. On the northern shore of Lake Ilmen, 22nd Army deploys in a tight defensive formation protecting Novgorod.
I've spent good AP's to shakedown the shattered command structure of the Northwestern Front. I hope it pays, and the 11th Army deployed on the southern shore of Lake Ilmen, is able to put up some fight if Q-Ball decides to march over Staraya Russa
The swamps to the south are covered by the puny 8th Army.
Western Front armies try to pull themselves out of the deathgrip of Q-Ball panzers. I'm covering Smolensk with three armies
further south I'm not retreating that much, just enough to recover a bit of balance, and acquire a position which might make difficult a pincer movement just in front of Smolensk
The idea is to retreat in an orderly fashion, not to hold the line.
Half the Southwestern Front goes hedgehog, the other half hugs Cherkassy bridgehead
I don't think Q-Ball will be able to do much against the hedgehog here, too little MP's if contest the crossing and has to fight the hedgehog. I'm not ruling out that he hurts the Red Army slightly though. Will analyze Q-Ball moves here with care.
Having evacuated Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, there is little of value in the Dnepr bend
the only thing really valuable here is buying time so Q-Ball doesn't get an opportunity to turn Southwestern Front flank and break out, just yet, into the Donets basin.
I think I haven't yet shown my defenses on the Perekop isthmus
the forts reached level 2, and are quite advanced towards level 3. I think that Q-Ball will oblige and secure AGS right flank.
< Message edited by Bletchley_Geek -- 9/21/2011 12:24:27 AM >
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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 
Please, explain yourself 
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