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RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:39:34 PM

heliodorus04

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I felt it pretty important to try to maintain a presence, through to snow turns, on the eastern side of the Volga Canal. That�s a supply risk. And I threw up a fort, because I want to hold this into the blizzard if I get no further.

I�m also taking a supply risk trying to hold a presence north of Moscow � that will likely be subject to attacks by him at some point, whether or not it�s next turn. Both those stacks are strong, 2-hex stacks.

Over the long term of the mud and blizzard, north of the Volga reservoir, I doubt CF will have much supply to attack from east to west except around Vysnhy, and again at the Volkhov. I don�t feel much of a threat at the Volkhov because the Finns can hold so much of it, and Novgorod anchors the SW well even for Germans. I don�t worry about east-west through the Valdai because it�s mountainous, which is good even for Germans in defense. So I�ll try to steer any north-south pincer into the gap where I can cut it off from east and west. But I don�t expect much action here.

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Post #: 331

RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:40:14 PM

heliodorus04

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In the Southern-Moscow area, supply is better.

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RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:40:57 PM

heliodorus04

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Across the river may be some problems next turn, but rail & FBD are both in Tula, and nothing should prevent me from withdrawing west of the river next turn if it�s worse than I am planning for. I�ve moved in enough to compose 2 full stacks north of the Oka at the new bridgehead. I intend to continue attacking from this bridgehead to the NW toward Moscow, first clearing a path west to the railroad crossing nearest Kaluga, then if I�m fortunate enough to have strength, moving along the eastern bank of the Moskva. He will have to factor for losing the units south of Moscow and west of the Moskva. I�m not sure what will be achievable in attacking in mud, but I may just use HQ buildup with my 16 remaining MPs on the panzer group that created the bridgehead last turn (/edit: I did use buildup there). Next turn, I can probably use it for the infantry if necessary (that might be my way of launching attacks in mud, but I don�t know if anything works offensively in mud). At least it�s still an impressive looking threat at the Oka now.

Note that I have not moved units south of Ryazan yet.

Nearer Moscow, poor MPs in the motorized divisions meant attacks had to be well-planned. While most succeeded, one unit performed well enough to cost me, winning 3 Held results. I�m most concerned about counter-attacks around Moscow with the big super-stacks he has. Their offensive CVs are only 6 each, but that�s enough with the odds-shift.

I guess all I can say is �we will see� how things go. I�m concerned about the strength he has east of Tula, but not terribly so. Local forces are sufficient to manage the threat.

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RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:41:28 PM

heliodorus04

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At Kharkov, the partial pocket started last turn worked out more in my favor than it originally looked:

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RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:42:34 PM

heliodorus04

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He left a critical sector of his flank wide open, and it�s an area with little support for rail supply/reinforcement. I�m not really sure why he�s not more staggered along the Torets river, but he�s not, and now I have incentive to be bold going into the first mud turn.

The way I�m looking at it, I have to block basically every hex along the SE side of this pocket along the Torets and Krasnaya river. That�s where he�ll be able to muster forces for attacks. In the north, and along the northeast, screening can be accomplished by regiments and every-other hex.

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RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:42:58 PM

heliodorus04

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This is how I did it, and how it turned out, and I believe it�s rock-solid

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RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:43:56 PM

heliodorus04

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Though my own supply is seriously compromised for Turn 18, I do not believe CF is in a strong enough position to hurt those units who will be out of supply/strained supply (I forget the lesser term). Moreover, two rail lines are in ideal positions to serve the outer limits over the next two turns, and the Ju-52 fleet is basically all in AGS near D-town now. The rail lines ensure the units on the western edge of the pocket will be sufficiently supplied to attack methodically over mud turns. I just have to hold it closed.

If he doesn�t run, I will continue to try to drive toward the Sea of Azov with 6.Army and 1.Panzer Group. Remember that 3.Panzer Corps will have high supply levels due to HQ buildup last turn, unless they get completely isolated. While my attitude lately is cockey, I don�t want my gameplay commentary to be. I try not to judge CF�s play in it because he can�t defend himself.

He commented to me in our laconic between-turn banter that he thought he isolated the corps down here, and I wonder if he didn�t convert a hex on his turn that didn�t flip before mine. He also did not plan on me firing HQ buildup and making one last sprint. I don�t think that pocket is falling on his last clear turn, but I have no idea what will become of either of us over mud. I hope I seized a good opportunity.

About 3 divisions routed out, but again, I was surprised how many divisions retreated in decent shape. I count about 24 divisions in there, most of whom were good quality units giving me hell at Kharkov. I�m rather proud I turned the worm. CF doesn�t give me much, and I think I play very well to �making the best� of what he gives me. I struggled through Kharkov and got criticized for having the starting OOB of AGS devoted to AGS�s goals. Is it wrong of me to feel vindicated that that criticism, while it looked valid at the time, turned out not to be as bad as it looked? In retrospect, the two SS units had to sit idle at Kursk for two turns to hold the pocket from all the cav he massed, once as regiments and once as divisions, to help hold the pocket closed, and that�s when 48.Panzer got pinned into Kharkov. Last turn they were free, attached to 3.Panzer, and drank from the mana pool (HQ buildup � I�ve been playing a lot of Skyrim lately).

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Post #: 337

RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:44:22 PM

heliodorus04

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Tula-Ryazan

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RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:44:45 PM

heliodorus04

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You can see my rail line leaves a LOT to be desired out here, and if I�m going to get counter-attacked in mud, it will be here. And the southern rail line is 1 hex west of Kharkov, so it will get a little better for 6.Army, less so for the mighy-might-be Italians (all over 51 morale). The Romanians include the cav corps and the mountain corps, but all are largely speed-bumps with how we can expect supply.

And CF is showing Cav here, in the center, and he has better supply there than I, so I�m prepared to fall the heck back, a long way, if required for an attack. The elements of 4.Army in the north and 6.Army in the south can contain any major breakthrough, and that�s why the supply line went South at Bryansk rather than southeast toward Orel: if I�m falling back in the center, I will need my supply line to fall back to, and not have it at risk too far east.

But I have made a point to hammer his cav whenever I have an opportunity, to keep their morale low so they aren�t as fast. Who knows if it has any effect. Soviet cav is snake-like. We hates it forevah!

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RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:45:08 PM

heliodorus04

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11.Army had a great turn.

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RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 5:45:46 PM

heliodorus04

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I�m leaving the area south of the Dnepr bend undefended, largely. I have a host of Romanian units, previously doing garrison duty (now replaced by Hungary�s SEC units), moving into the area piecemeal, who can make a great ad-hoc defense of the Dnepr even in mud. Your wife�s cat can guard the Dnepr�

I don�t think he can penetrate the pocket anywhere in there � it�s double layered. I don�t think he can threaten my supply without endangering much bigger prizes to his east.

In the Crimea, a snake-like Cav isolated one infantry division, and the other bailed it out, and are falling back on the choke. Two forts now cover the chokes (the last one can wait a bit. CF has 10 divisions or so down there. I can maneuver it using regiments, I think I�m rather good at that, but the supply is strained as it is to the choke, so there�s no point.

And I leap forward into the Rasputitsa�
Later today I will post T18's OOB/loss figures.

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RE: Turn 17 - 11/25/2011 11:36:10 PM

sillyflower

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quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

But I have made a point to hammer his cav whenever I have an opportunity, to keep their morale low so they aren�t as fast. Who knows if it has any effect. Soviet cav is snake-like. We hates it forevah!

+1
I just do it because I hate horses and they do supplement the rations which helps too.

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RE: Turn 15 Axis Moves - 11/26/2011 12:08:47 AM

Peltonx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Helio, if you take Moscow, I am going to laugh my ass off. You've spilled a lot of electrons lecturing us how the game is broken and biased in favor of the Soviets. A lot of nonsense, quite frankly. Games where both Leningrad and Moscow fall will become relatively common in this patch.

Mostly I wish you'd start cultivating a bit more sangfroid when playing these games. It's very difficult to take your criticisms seriously when looking at how you are actually doing.

Games where Leningrad and Moscow fall is because of crappy game play by the Russian player, not the patch.

I hear you bitch its to easy to take Moscow?

Thats alot of nonsence quite frankly and you know it. Did Jamiam take Moscow vs you? No.

All things being equal Moscow is never taken. I had 3 poeple hold Moscow vs me, 1 won and 2 are on going.
Its not possible to take Moscow vs a Good russian player.
Q-ball raided Moscow because BG made a rookie mistake and did not garrison it. Q-ball did not get withen 5 hexes other then the raid.

You making that claim is an out right joke. Yes and It's very difficult to take your criticisms seriously when looking at how you are actually doing. Did you lose Moscow vs Jamiam, no. When you do lose Moscow then you can make your claim based on fact not fanboyism for the Russian side.

If you had your way, Russian production would be higher, manpower higher, German logistics nerfed, HQ build-up nerfed, the blizzard harder on Germans ect ect.

Moscow is only taken if the Russian player is average to poor and is playing a good German of which there are very few.

Your being an ass giving Helio **** when we all look at how you actually do in your games.

If Moscow is lost its because of crappy game play or uber luck.

Pelton

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RE: Turn 15 Axis Moves - 11/26/2011 1:05:08 AM

heliodorus04

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I appreciate your defense Pelton, but I do think we'd all be enjoying ourselves more if we assumed the other guys were doing the best they can to give input that makes the game better. I'm personally trying to make my tone more likable and to recognize Flavius (among others) as a good counter to my fanaticism that only I see things accurately.

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Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:39:51 PM

heliodorus04

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Numbers

I�m happy with how I�ve managed to control the size of the Red Army, if not the Red Air Force.

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< Message edited by heliodorus04 -- 11/26/2011 6:40:23 PM >

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:41:00 PM

heliodorus04

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Remember last turn when I said it would be �very very bad� for the Finns?

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:41:21 PM

heliodorus04

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About what I expected. And alarming. We know his supply is better, but not for very many hexes. Debating whether I pull the Finns back, but if I move at all, I�m making my defensive position worse, and in one turn, I won�t be getting back into supply. I�m pretty sure my plan up here is: BLUFF.

And I think that will be a plan for a lot of the turn in a lot of places. In a lot of others, it will simply be �rest, don�t move much.� But as you�ll soon see, I�ve got some good and glaring weaknesses based on the doubling down of rail iines.

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:41:47 PM

heliodorus04

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Out by Vyshny Volichek, it�s not as bad as I expected it to be.

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:42:05 PM

heliodorus04

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I can live with those stacks being low supply. His supply grid isn�t that good out here, though I�m going to have to push east a bit this turn. Iv Vyshny itself is in solid supply, then I�m happy.

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:42:28 PM

heliodorus04

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Around Moscow, it�s the same basic thing: I can live with it.

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:42:55 PM

heliodorus04

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This is acceptable to the alternative, which is red-state. We�re over 50MPs, but under 100. We can defend in mud. I�ll do some consolidating in the Ryazan sector, but otherwise I think �Hold� is the order of the turn.

Because I consider this serious, I have brought back the FBD from Torzhok this turn, and it will start building eastward on the line at Rzhev next turn. It will be slow, but by snow supply state should be solid.

The question I seem to have to ask is how much power I think CF can apply this turn, and how much he intends to.

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:43:36 PM

heliodorus04

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On to the Ryazan-Kursk axis.

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:44:34 PM

heliodorus04

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Not bad. Good supply situation and an okay local force differential. Again, a sector I shall Hold in.

The Izyum pocket is the matter of the turn.

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:45:04 PM

heliodorus04

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It�s about where I thought it would be. I don�t have enough experience attacking in mud to know how to optimize my attack strategy. What I must try to do is close this pocket. I don�t know if I should conduct a couple of attacks, and then see what can move, or if I should move, and then see if I should make any attacks.

My game-player strategy tells me that I should avoid attacking as much as possible on my turn 18. If I conduct a bunch of attacks that turn out to be unsuccessful, it will give CF some confidence, and he might attack me in return. If I leave it a big mystery, he has to decide if he�s willing to attack my army while it�s muddy. Meanwhile, close that pocket!

The SS are out of supply holding the eastern edge. If there�s any unit you want out there, it�s the SS. L.A.H. and Wiking, at 90% TOE. And the Luftwaffe is stacked here.

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:45:30 PM

heliodorus04

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From the DANGER WILL ROBINSON FILE
Behold, the crimea�

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:45:57 PM

heliodorus04

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What concerns me, and it concerns me greatly, is that this is where my rail lines have the furthest to go before help can be attained. Now, things are swimming along with auto-repair in the south, but almost all of that work has been north of a line drawn from Cherkassy to Proskurov, and lately around the SW of D-town.

If CF were to take somerisks on the Romanians, and get lucky leadership rolls, with the +1 odds shift he could cross. And then he�s pretty free to run to D-town. I have more units headed down. I have 2 German divisions at the main choke. If he broke out from there, I�d have to divert the closest FBD, and given the weather, and the distance away from supply he would run, I could cover it.

I really believe I have his army on the run, and simply far too weak to contest me now. He needs mud everywhere but the far north, and around Moscow. He needs to recover, I believe, and short of trying to save 200,000 men in the Izyum pocket, the front will be pretty idle.

Basically nothing is moving much, and I don�t see a need to post screenshots except at the Izyum pocket.

During this phase of the securing of the Izyum pocket, I noticed something I had never seen before: as I opened the supply path from the railhead near D-town to the units on the Donets and across it, they went from Red supply status to Yellow. Relief. I�ve gotten one Held result in the pocket, although a few retreats, since I started. I think I�ve got it secured for another turn.

You can attack in mud, but you will usually need a deliberate attack. My held result was a deliberate by 9.panzer div with its 23-tanks (don�t ask me how many are ready) and the Slovakian mobile. I keep stacking it with something for a win, and it keeps losing. Starting to think it�s jinxed.

< Message edited by heliodorus04 -- 11/26/2011 6:46:27 PM >

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:46:56 PM

heliodorus04

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Izyum is held by me firmly now

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:47:50 PM

heliodorus04

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I�m a big fan of Advanced Squad Leader (if you play VASL, let me know), and I always enjoyed how scenarios at the squad level were reduced actions of these larger campaigns, and in my eyes, there�s really been one hell of a battle that raged from Kharkov to Izyum over turns 11 to 18, and here at the desperate end of it, Izyum has changed hands 4 times in two weeks. The helpless population of the Donets cities dig in while there comrades cannot slush through the rasputitsa fast enough. The fighting is grueling, and for some of the dead here, they are grateful at least for the rest.

My goal is efficiency of movement, and improvement of supply.
I�m having a hard time crossing the Donets at Kharkov though� More on that later�

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:48:26 PM

heliodorus04

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And after considering what�s happening between Orel and Tula, my spidey-senses went off, and I realized there was nothing worth holding north of Ryazan. We cross back, leaving a screening force.

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RE: Rasputitsa Arrives - 11/26/2011 6:49:21 PM

heliodorus04

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By the way, I�m going to do some on-map writing in all-caps when I think it�s a matter of visibility in a place where shades might make it harder for someone with, say, eyesight as bad as mine, to see. It�s not meant as �shouts�.

You cans see what I�m worried about. Now, 4.Army is my strongest army in the local area, but I don�t want to test him. I have to leave the Oka swamps simply because of supply and flank security. I still have the launching off point for a Typhoon on the eastern side of the Moskva.
The hex I really NEED is Stupino (circled in blue). And if that Tula line gets pressured, I�ll abandon even that. This Ryazan salient is a horrible place to try to supply, and the rail lines don�t work in your favor, actually even at Stupino. I�m not ready to give up that position at the confluence of the Moskva and the Oka, but I would be willing to if he threatened Tula. Tula is a ccity I need to try to hold over the winter.

It�s a goddamn mess over there in terms of supply. It has bad news written all over it, and I�m relying on a relatively mediocre-leadership crew of 4.Army to buy me time, if nothing else.

I�m considering a winter offensive that moves toward the Don and in a southeasterly direction�

Elements 1.Corps will be arriving in any locally needed area and is thus a good strategic reserve, and I have a shell panzer division on refit on rail in the rear. I�ve got plans for worst case.

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