RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 3:51:16 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

I'd be tempted to move the 2 Siberians to kill the German armor in Smolensk, if it weren't for the Bf110c. It would be 17:2 instead of 17:4 (too bad there isn't an I16 in range it'd actually be at an advantage). Russia would retake the city, probably without causilties and a good chance of staying organized.

On a different topic, irregardless of the high strat-bombing rolls, those American Bolos and the big NAV would be better off guarding against the axis subs/navy and not Strat bombing. By the way, where is the Langley, Ranger and the rest of the Atlantic fleet. With the Germany fleet mostly in the repair yard the euro axis fleet should be cowering.

The NAV could have gone out to the North Atlantic to try to flush out the German SUBs, but I didn't want to risk them getting lucky and killing more convoys. It isn't needed anywhere else. The Germans and Italians haven't got anything left to throw at the pipelines this turn.

The Atlantic fleet has no CV at this time. There are only 6 on the map, and they are in the Pacific, with a good chunk heading for India. It's early in the game, and I haven't even put the Langley on the table yet. But don't worry, the Americans got a bump of 25 BP this turn, from 31 to 56.

Thats just it, though. The allies have the long term economic advantage, however they can't afford to just fritter it away on side shows. The Mariner did 1 PP to Germany. If it (or a bolo) had been sitting in the 0 box you would've saved more $ in lost convoy points by burning up 4 surprise points. You could've flown it into the 1 box so that it would be in the 0 box the next turn. Even if Germany is going to take a land, it shouldn't be surprising to see Italy take combine to take another shot at the convoys anyway. Heck I would've flown one plane to 1 box and 1 to the 0 box to cover them for the rest of the turn.

Well, at the time the Germans and Italians attacked, these planes were not within range of the North Atlantic. Even if they were, the results would have been similar. Instead of 11 convoys destroyed, it would have been 8 (assuming the use of 4 Surprise Points to select the combat type . . . the Axis had 10 Surprise Points to spend.

And, if I flew them there now, the Germans could take a chance as the non-phasing side. If I don't fly them there now, the Germans can't do that. Also, the Italians have too much to do on land right now to take a Combined action. Or, at least, they did (and I think they still do). At this point in the turn, I need to try to get it to end.

And, also:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

I ment on the impulse(s) that they (the Bolos and the Mariner) were used to Strat bomb. But what is done is done, I hope the CW was able to supply all her factories.

I'm big enough to admit when I'm wrong, and I was wrong here with the NAV, at least. I still think it would have been dangerous at the time, but I didn't expect to use another Italian Combined Action. I guess you could consider this a "bad Intel report".

So, as feared, the turn didn't end. In fact, since impulse #7, these were the End of Turn Rolls:

7: End of Turn Roll: 4 (10%)
8: End of Turn Roll: 9 (20%)
9: End of Turn Roll: 6 (40%)
10: End of Turn Roll: 10 (40%)
11: End of Turn Roll: 8 (60%)
12: End of Turn Roll: ? (60%)

As the Italians, I looked at what needed to be done, and I decided I needed to shift 3 more SUBs from La Spezia to Gibraltar. Since they all have a range of 2 or 3, they were doing no good sitting in Italy. In Iraq, until (or if) I get the overseas supply route set up next turn, there isn't a lot left to do, and a Combined Action gives the Italians 3 Air Missions instead of the 1 they get from a Land Action. So, I took the Combined. I'm not laying "blame" here, but I probably wouldn't have considered it very much if you hadn't mentioned it, so from the heart of Italy, I thank you. From the heart of the Allies, I thumb my nose at you.

Here's why. The U-boats tried it again in the North Atlantic . . . and the Allies found themselves in the same horrible situation, with the Axis having a little less firepower . . . but again with 11 Surprise Points to spend. This looks bad for the CW economy, indeed.

The top shot shows what is in the North Atlantic, and the bottom shot shows what the Axis chose to fight.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/30/2012 3:55:16 PM >

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Post #: 1861

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 3:53:12 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

I don't like that out-of-supply Red Army stack at the north end of the Ukraine line. One lucky groundstrike on the corps and the Germans move an HQ to put that sector fully in supply and they're across the river in the north, too.

Problem is, I don't see much as can be done about it right now.

The Germans would have to rail an HQ to the area. They haven't got a face-up HQ anywhere on this front. Nor do they have the ability to Ground Strike that target. They started the impulse OOS, so I just left them there, not wanting to disorganize them and put someone else OOS in their place.

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Post #: 1862

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 4:05:27 PM

Red Prince

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The terrible results . . . the convoy chain is broken. I suppose one benefit of this, if you can call it that, is that the Allies can recall most of their convoys to base at the end of this turn, and then reset the entire chain late in the turn (or mid-turn) during J/A '41.
-----
With the damage done, the Axis decided to abort from the combat, since there are still plenty of Allied ships in the sea area and luck cannot last forever. It just seems that it does.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/30/2012 4:07:46 PM >

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1863

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 4:23:23 PM

Red Prince

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Taking their cue from the Wallies, Germany decided to try its own Strategic Bombing campaign on the Baku oil resources. They obviously were not going to have a chance to be useful in an attack this turn, so it seemed to be time to do something with these LND. Both attacks were at extended range, both rolled a '5' and fell just short of the mark, so Russia lost nothing and it'll cost 0.4 Oil Points to reorganize these planes.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 1864

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 4:55:07 PM

Red Prince

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Well, there is good news for the Russians. I'm looking at potential attacks for the Germans, and it turns out I have fewer units available on the southern front than expected. I'll probably still be able to make the 2 attacks I want to make, but it is going to be a little tricky to set up. If things don't go well, the Soviets might be in a much better position at the start of J/A '41 than we all expected . . . provided the Allies can win the initiative.

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1865

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 5:31:32 PM

Shannon V. OKeets

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Things are always a mess on both sides when a turn ends. But then a new turn begins and hope springs eternal. It's sort of like spring training (for baseball).

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Post #: 1866

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 5:31:53 PM

composer99

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That North Atlantic debacle definitely gets a

or two (

) from me, looking at it from an Allied perspective. (

)

To do all those things the CW needs to do, it needs to build units as the forces it begins play with are entirely inadequate. To do that, it needs production. To do that, it needs those convoy lines running. To do that, it absolutely must have adequate defences against Axis sub attacks.

So yes, please do return the convoys to base that aren't doing anything this turn and re-set the line next turn. But make sure to set up satisfactory defences in every sea area that those wolfpacks can hit. Others upthread have already noted what is optimal so I won't re-iterate it here.

To be fair, from an Axis perspective, two 1-10 splits in the same area are fantastic and worth cracking out some champagne wherever Doenitz' headquarters is set up.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 5:56:47 PM

Centuur

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It's always the same. When long turns seem to come to an end, there comes the time where a combined action is taken by the Italians or the Germans, simply due to the lack of things to do.Well: I think a terrible lesson has been learned here. That is: there should always be a CV or a plane with at least 1 air to sea factor in the zero box of sea area's with a lot of convoy points. Both sides lost a huge amount of production points in the strategic warfare here. The Germans ones got bombed and the CW ones got torpedoed... That's total war...

< Message edited by Centuur -- 1/30/2012 5:58:23 PM >

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 6:20:58 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Things are always a mess on both sides when a turn ends. But then a new turn begins and hope springs eternal. It's sort of like spring training (for baseball).

You sound like you are a Brooklyn Dodgers fan, even though I know you are a Phillies fan. It's the fact that Philadelphia never came up with "wait 'til next year!"

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1869

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 6:27:02 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

It's always the same. When long turns seem to come to an end, there comes the time where a combined action is taken by the Italians or the Germans, simply due to the lack of things to do.Well: I think a terrible lesson has been learned here. That is: there should always be a CV or a plane with at least 1 air to sea factor in the zero box of sea area's with a lot of convoy points. Both sides lost a huge amount of production points in the strategic warfare here. The Germans ones got bombed and the CW ones got torpedoed... That's total war...

When I run the Return to Base series, I'm going to try to see if I can run the pipeline through the Canadian Coast and Denmark Straits. That cuts what the Axis can effectively reach from 4 to 3 sea areas, and those are much easier to defend than the North Atlantic. If I do that, I may have to settle for a turn or two of fewer resources getting to the UK.

I know I was "late" in starting extra convoy production. Part of that is that I've never actually before seen how devestating an attack or two like this can be, and part of it is that things started moving a little early. Believe it or not, in my notes for Strategic Plans for each nation, both the CW and USA were supposed to start building at least 1 CP per turn from the beginning of the game . . . but other things seemed to be more important. I should have stuck to the notes.

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Post #: 1870

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 6:41:28 PM

Red Prince

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Okay, here's what I've got planned for attacks this impulse, both in the south.

The first, on Dnepropetrovsk (what a mouthful -- I'll be glad when it's conquered!), is actually going to be a Blitz attack. Both CRTs give the Russians a 30& chance to kill off an enemy in the attack, but the Blitz table gives the Kharkov MIL a 30% chance to survive, too. Since (as the Soviets) I'm counting on the turn ending either after this impulse or the next, I don't really care too much if the Germans stay organized or not. Saving 2 BP by saving the MIL seems more important right now.

The 2nd attack is going to be a Blitz (German choice). The paradrop adds a +1, and armor adds another +1, with a +2 coming from disorganized units. Assuming they win the Fractional Odds Roll, either odds column (3:1 +5, 4:1 +4) gives the same chances of survival (50% for at least 1 to survive). As the Russians, I'm going to include the Notional Unit for the 2 extra combat factors. In this case, I'm hopeing the extra 10% chance of a retreat result will be useful, but I don't have high hopes. The risk here is that if Germany wins the Fractional Odds Roll, the chances of survival drop . . . and the Germans stay organized. If the turn doesn't end after this impulse or the next, that could be a problem.
-----
Edit: If you're wondering why the Dnep attack is at -1, it's because it still counts as a multi-factory city even though the 2nd factory has already been railed out.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/30/2012 6:42:33 PM >

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 6:49:19 PM

Centuur

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Any USSR ground support possible by that long range LND? Or is there still a German FTR capable of intercepting it on the Crimean hex? The 109 is now a bomber, so he's out and the Heinkel can't reach the hex...

< Message edited by Centuur -- 1/30/2012 6:55:19 PM >

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:01:58 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Any USSR ground support possible by that long range LND? Or is there still a German FTR capable of intercepting it on the Crimean hex? The 109 is now a bomber, so he's out and the Heinkel can't reach the hex...

After you asked this, I double-checked, and it turns out there was the possibility. It would have added an extra 10% (maybe) to the chances of survival, making the attack 56% of the way between 2:1 +5 and 3:1 +5 . . . or 8% of the way from 3:1 +4 and 4:1 +4. Honestly, I didn't think to try it because of those big + numbers. It wouldn't have done a lot to stop the success of the attack, and the Soviets are in danger of having much of their Oil cut off or unavailable.

I don't know if it would have been worth it . . . I'm halfway through the attacks . . . I'll "know" (with 20/20 hindsight) after I finish up that attack.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:07:57 PM

Orm

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Defencive ground support to Dnepropetrovsk would be nice. If Germany can intercept the support and USSR has no availabe FTR2 for counterinterception I would fly the USSR bombers at night. I would even use a unescorted LND4 flying a night misson to support Dnepropetrovsk.

In the other attack the notional should be declined.

Edit: Do not allocate any air support to the Crimean attack. They have to many pluses on the die roll for it to be worth reducing the odds.

< Message edited by Orm -- 1/30/2012 7:08:59 PM >

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:20:19 PM

Red Prince

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The attacks for Impulse #12:

And the results:

Attack on Dnepropetrovsk: Blitz, Fractional Odds .055 (Yes), Roll = 6-1 = 5 = */1B
Attack on USSR [58, 59]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .572 (No), Roll = 9+5 = 14 = */2B (Breakthrough)

At Dnep, the idea was sound. What I didn't count on was the ridiculously low Fractional Odds roll by the Germans. They had a 16.7% chance to move up to 6:1 odds. I didn't expect it to happen. If it hadn't, that MIL would be coming back for free next turn. That is luck, ladies and gentlemen, on the side of the Germans, screwing with the Soviets once more.

-----
Ran that attack before Orm suggested Ground Support to Dnep. I didn't do it, because an interception at +3/-3 in favor of Germany didn't see worth the risk just to get 3:1 odds (which would have gone to 4:1 with that roll). Even if successful, I probably still would have tried to save the MIL by using the Blitz CRT. The only difference at 4:1 odds is that the attackers would end up disorganized (based on the actual rolls).
-----
As you can see, in the Crimea, the answer is "No, the Ground Support would have made not a bit of difference". Part of me feels like if you go off the chart at the 13+ end, you should be able to kill something else for free.

But the Germans are happy with the Breakthrough result as it stands. They get to block off Sevastapol and will be able to take the port nearby at the next possible opportunity.

So, it is time to move on and rebase some planes . . .

Attachment (1)

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:21:47 PM

composer99

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I would include the notional & send in ground support to the Crimea attack, myself. If you can get the Germans down to the 3:1 column, you have a 20% chance at getting a retreat result and disorganizing the Germans, vs a 10% chance on the 4:1 column and no chance whatsoever on the 5:1 column.

Edit: ... or not, seeing as the attack has gone forward with a stunning German victory.

< Message edited by composer99 -- 1/30/2012 7:22:59 PM >

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:40:12 PM

bean5671

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been trolling WIF forum for awhile now and have to say great job this looks like a hit and a must buy for me

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:43:07 PM

Red Prince

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Italy rebased another LND/ATR to Iraq, along with a FTR, and also got it's 6-factor LND to Copenhagen -- within reach of the enemy stack in Denmark. Germany rebased its last FTR in the Ukraine so that it wouldn't get overrun by the Soviets, too.

Below, this may seem like a strange choice. I decided that I won't need to rail Antonescu to the Soviet front lines (even if I get another impulse), so I decided to "double" his value as an anti-Partisan garrison by reorganizing the MTN unit. Before I did this, I checked my Oil needs this turn. As things stand, I needed 6.5 Oil to reorganize units. If the turn ends now, that means I lose half of an Oil Point unless I decide not to reorganize something. The chances for a Partisan to show up in France were higher than I'd like, mostly due to having to shift units to Denmark, so I decided I'd spend the full Oil Point and lower those chances a bit. This move drops the chances from 20% down to 16% in France. It isn't much, but it's better and it costs nothing in the end.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/30/2012 7:46:52 PM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1878

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:46:15 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bean5671

been trolling WIF forum for awhile now and have to say great job this looks like a hit and a must buy for me

Yay! Another satisfied soon-to-be customer.

Honestly, I'm glad you like what you see. At least a hundred people that I know about, and probably many more than that have worked hard to make MWiF as exciting as the table-top version. Without the enthusiasm of the forum members, I don't know if this game would ever have been possible, so let me thank you all.

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:48:29 PM

Orm

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The decision to pick blitz in the Dnepropetrovsk attack may come to haunt USSR if Germany gets one more impulse this turn.

< Message edited by Orm -- 1/30/2012 7:49:47 PM >

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Post #: 1880

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:51:53 PM

Orm

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bean5671

been trolling WIF forum for awhile now and have to say great job this looks like a hit and a must buy for me

Welcome to the WIF forum.

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Post #: 1881

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:52:33 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

The descision to pick blitz in the Dnepropetrovsk attack may come to haunt USSR if Germany gets one more impulse this turn.

Don't worry about it. I don't know if this is a blessing or a curse for the Russians, and I don't think we will know until the Initiative roll comes around for J/A '41, but the turn is ended.

On the plus side of things, the Allies get to keep their +2 on the Initiative Track, for what that is worth (and it was worth a lot at the start of this turn).

I'll start posting my end of turn stuff soon, but this one may take a while.

Attachment (1)

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1882

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:56:07 PM

Orm

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Italy rebased another LND/ATR to Iraq, along with a FTR, and also got it's 6-factor LND to Copenhagen -- within reach of the enemy stack in Denmark. Germany rebased its last FTR in the Ukraine so that it wouldn't get overrun by the Soviets, too.

Below, this may seem like a strange choice. I decided that I won't need to rail Antonescu to the Soviet front lines (even if I get another impulse), so I decided to "double" his value as an anti-Partisan garrison by reorganizing the MTN unit. Before I did this, I checked my Oil needs this turn. As things stand, I needed 6.5 Oil to reorganize units. If the turn ends now, that means I lose half of an Oil Point unless I decide not to reorganize something. The chances for a Partisan to show up in France were higher than I'd like, mostly due to having to shift units to Denmark, so I decided I'd spend the full Oil Point and lower those chances a bit. This move drops the chances from 20% down to 16% in France. It isn't much, but it's better and it costs nothing in the end.

I think the Romanian MTN should be used to hunt partisans in USSR instead where it can double as a winter attack unit along with German MTNs.

Cut from RAC: 8.2.7 Land combat
....
If at least half of your attacking land units are MTN, ski troops (AsA option 65), Swedish, Finnish,
Norwegian, or elite Soviet units, you may lessen the odds reduction in snow or blizzard by 2 (i.e. snow has no effect
and blizzard becomes a -1 odds shift). If you use this power, your first loss must be from one of these units

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 7:58:04 PM

Orm

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quote:

On the plus side of things, the Allies get to keep their +2 on the Initiative Track, for what that is worth (and it was worth a lot at the start of this turn).

Allies must reroll for initiative if they do not win the first roll. And if they win the initiative they must go first.

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Post #: 1884

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 8:03:29 PM

Centuur

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

quote:

On the plus side of things, the Allies get to keep their +2 on the Initiative Track, for what that is worth (and it was worth a lot at the start of this turn).

Allies must reroll for initiative if they do not win the first roll. And if they win the initiative they must go first.

I think so either, however: wait and see what happens when the reinforcements come in, before making a decision about a reroll or not. Building program for the USSR again: empty the GAR and the MIL pool, after that it's time for INF (if there are enough build point available with all those factories railed last turn).

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Peter

(in reply to Orm)

Post #: 1885

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 8:15:57 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

quote:

On the plus side of things, the Allies get to keep their +2 on the Initiative Track, for what that is worth (and it was worth a lot at the start of this turn).

Allies must reroll for initiative if they do not win the first roll. And if they win the initiative they must go first.

I think so either, however: wait and see what happens when the reinforcements come in, before making a decision about a reroll or not. Building program for the USSR again: empty the GAR and the MIL pool, after that it's time for INF (if there are enough build point available with all those factories railed last turn).

I think there are 17 BP available, which means 4 x MIL, 3 x GARR and 1 x INF, based on what seems to be available.

I think the Soviets will need to go first, if only to un-make the mistake I made with the MECH and ARM in the forest hex. In addition to the planned MIL builds, they'll be getting 5 Corps, an ART Division, an HQ-I, and another LND-4/ATR. That's a lot more than the Germans will get.
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Anyway, for those keeping track, here is the weather report for M/J '41 (Turn #11):

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/30/2012 8:17:02 PM >

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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(in reply to Centuur)

Post #: 1886

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 8:31:47 PM

Taxman66

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You should strongly consider using the Soviet bombers at night, late in the turn. They'll fair much better against the fighters, and the ones with odd factors (i.e. the 3 TAC guys) don't loose that much in effectiveness.

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(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 1887

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 8:47:03 PM

Red Prince

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It's complex, trying to work with Convoy Points from 3 major powers and a handful of minors, but I think I can cut another sea area out from the list of vulnerable sea areas. That leaves only 2 that need extreme defenses (in the Atlantic). I'm not sure how much this will cut into CW production over the next few turns, but it probably will by a little bit at least. It may also cut into what can be sent to the Soviets. I just don't have the Convoys available to send them all that many BP and also deliver a full supply of resources to the CW. I did have a good sized backup, but that is going to get used up. Fortunately, a convoy counts as only 1/2 a ship for gearing limits, so I can build a bunch this turn for the USA, though it may cut into some other planned builds. Sure, they won't arrive until the start of 1942, but that's better than not building them at all.

Anyway, this end of turn report is going to be a long time in the making, since I've got to figure out where to return a lot of convoys and ships to base.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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(in reply to Taxman66)

Post #: 1888

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 8:48:36 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

You should strongly consider using the Soviet bombers at night, late in the turn. They'll fair much better against the fighters, and the ones with odd factors (i.e. the 3 TAC guys) don't loose that much in effectiveness.

I started doing this a little bit with Strategic Bombing, since the CW has a night fighter (and is about to get 2 more), but I'm still getting a handle on the concept. I sometimes forget the option is available. Thank you for reminding me.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Taxman66)

Post #: 1889

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/30/2012 8:51:40 PM

Red Prince

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In the meantime, I can show you the units Destroyed in M/J '41 (Turn #11):