RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/20/2019 2:21:58 PM

Mike Solli
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1 Jan 44

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

The normal B-17 bombing of Japanese held Umnak Island and Sally bombing of US held Dutch Harbor.

4 Fleet

It turned out KB1 (Akagi,Kaga, Soryu, Chitose, Chiyoda) caught the US CVL putting down Cowpens and Princeton along with a couple DDs.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Tarawa at 135,127

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 26
B6N2 Jill x 42
D4Y3 Judy x 17

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 1 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
TBF-1 Avenger: 5 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVL Princeton, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
CVL Belleau Wood, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVL Cowpens, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
DD Selfridge
DD Clark
DD Phelps, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Ammo storage explosion on CVL Princeton
Ammo storage explosion on CVL Princeton
Fuel storage explosion on CVL Belleau Wood
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring a Hermes class CVL

Must have been really heavy smoke.
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVL Princeton

followed by:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Tarawa at 135,127

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y3 Judy x 17

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
CVL Belleau Wood, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Clark, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DD Selfridge

Massive explosion on CVL Belleau Wood
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVL Belleau Wood
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Clark

Immediately after, I heard sinking sounds. I suspect it was the DD Clark because I can still see aircraft on the TF (see screenshot below). The Belleau Wood is doomed though. She's taken a torpedo and 7x 500kg bombs over the past 2 days. Those Independence Class CVLs are pretty tough though. They've taken a LOT of punishment before going down. 6 to go.

Yesterday, I said I was going to withdraw my carriers after today, but I decided to push it a little bit more. As you can see in the screenshot, I'm moving both KB1 and KB2 3 hexes east in the same hex to clear out the opposition. My goal here is two-fold.

1. I want to make sure Belleau Wood goes down, and maybe take out more (or all!) of that TF.
2. Probably most importantly, I want to drive him from the Central Pacific. He'll be back, and in force, but it'll take some time. It's all about screwing up and delaying his timeline.

So, what's the status of KB? The only Jill daitai that doesn't have a full load of torpedoes is Kaga's. I set them to naval search, to keep a better eye on things. Here is the combined total of what is available:

Zero: 281
Judy: 101
Jill: 119 (+18 more on Naval Search) Also note that 10% (~12) are also on naval search. (Can't wait to get them Graces!)

The Allied carrier aircraft capacity is down by 99. Gotta keep chipping away.

SE Fleet

Today, 137 Allied 2/4E sorties hit Truk's port again. It's effectively trashed. But, the airfield is repairing. Current damage at Truk is 100-99-37. Still pulling out the good stuff.

Hollandia was hit by 61x 2E sorties. That's definitely the next target here, but Ted is in no hurry. I dropped off a load of mines, just in case. Also, part of MKB is at Babeldaob. The rest of MKB has completed repairs in the Home Islands and is leaving for Babeldaob today.

SRA

The only excitement is in the skies over Saumlaki. A small sweep of 7 Hellcats met 25 Tojos/Tonies losing 2 Hellcats before being driven off. After that, 6x PB4Y-1s arrived. Four of their number were shot down. The remaining two dropped their bombs in the jungle before fleeing.

Burma

A Tojo sentai swept Kalemyo. That airfield is finally nearing full repairs so I'm planning on hitting it again. Eight various enemy fighters rose and each side lost one. I'm sending in Franks tomorrow to show the Tojos how to do the job.

China

Air and artillery both did their jobs today killing 40 squads (including 28 infantry) and disabling another 205 squads. Here is the current status of the Japanese assault force:

Fatigue: 40.8, -8.6
Disruption: 13.8, -3.1
Disablement: 15.8, -2.1

An independent mixed brigade joined the army today.

Current Raw AV:
Japan: 8190
China: 2089

The last attack, they were 7616 and 2789. Hopefully, this attack does it.

They are going in again tomorrow.

Other Stuff

Reinforcements:
E W-30, ASW
54 Construction Battalion rebuilt

So, what are the current flight deck numbers?

According to my estimates, here is what I think is currently afloat (in my opinion, Belleau Wood is a goner):

CV: 9
CVL: 4
CVE: 17

I'm thinking 90 per CV, 33 per CVL and 30 per CVE. Also, say half the CVEs are replenishment so I'm not counting them. That gives the US some 1200 aircraft. Yikes!

Not counting CVEs, he's got some 943 capacity.

Ok, lets look at what I have available.

Here's the list:

CVs:
Akagi - 81
Kaga - 72
Soryu - 63
Shokaku - 72
Zuikaku - 72
Unryu - 63
Amagi - 63
Kasasagi - 63
*Hiyo - 54

CVLs:
Ryujo - 48
Shoho - 30
*Ryuho - 33
*Mizuho - 30
Nisshin - 30
Chitose - 30
Chiyoda - 30

CVEs:
*Hosho - 18
**Taiyo - 27
*Chuyo - 27
*Shinyo - 33
*Kaiyo - 24

*MKB, due to speed and often made of tin foil.
**TK ASW escort or MKB.

Other notes: Zuikaku is in the fender shop and won't be available until the end of April. Also note that there will be 3 brand spanking new Katsuragis available at the end of April giving me an additional 189 capacity.

Right now, KB has a capacity of 645 and MKB has a capacity of 219 (or 246). By the end of April KB's capacity will increase by 261 to 906.

Grand total of 891 now and 1152 at the end of April.

So, at the end of April, KB will have fewer capacity than the US fleet carriers have now.

Once he forms his Death Star, things will get more interesting. I have to play perfectly and he has to make mistakes.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/20/2019 2:27:30 PM

Lowpe
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Nice job getting the CVLs

...they can be a pain with their decent speed.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/20/2019 3:31:04 PM

GetAssista
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring a Hermes class CVL Must have been really heavy smoke.

Given that Hermes was the one and only ship of the design, this ain't fires. This is your pilots smoking something.

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Post #: 4623

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/20/2019 6:07:06 PM

Mike Solli
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The State of the Empire in January 1944:

Attachment (1)

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/20/2019 8:54:06 PM

rustysi
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Not bad. Ted does seem to be on an historical advance (roughly). The Aleutians seem to be an exception, but...

The big tell should be in the Cen Pac when he hits the Marianas around mid-year.

Edit: That last sentence should read 'when he should hit the...'

< Message edited by rustysi -- 5/20/2019 8:56:09 PM >

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/20/2019 9:01:01 PM

rustysi
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quote:

SRA

Eight PB4Y-1s visited Saumlaki, and 3 were shot down by the defending bombers. Not sure what he’s after here.

From the other day after some thought.

Either probing with consideration of opening another front, or just keeping you 'honest'. Either way it seems too early to tell at this point.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/22/2019 4:00:53 AM

PaxMondo
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Looking good Mike ….

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/24/2019 3:26:06 PM

Mike Solli
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Some monthly and annual economic stats (millions):

1 Jan 43 / 1 Dec 43 / Total 1 Jan 44 (just in Home Islands not including Hokkaido)

Supply: 3.14 / 4.21 / 4.30 (2.41)
Fuel: 3.40 / 3.28 / 3.31 (2.58) +104k enroute on ships
Oil: 2.69 / 2.04 / 2.04 (1.76) +120k enroute on ships
Resources: 15.10 / 21.96 / 22.71 (20.15) +245k enroute on ships

And other stuff:

Armament Points: 98,451 / 169,537 / 183,422
Vehicle Points: 8,365 / 29,699 / 30,261

Allied Planes Lost: 4,622 / 11,236 / 11,870 (7,248 for the year)
Japanese Planes Lost: 4,528 / 9,944 / 10,605 (6,077 for the year)

Allied Troops Lost: 13,120 / 16,926 / 18,040 (4,920 for the year)
Japanese Troops Lost: 1,220 / 2,316 / 2,480 (1,260 for the year - primarily from the Battle for Chungking)

Allied Ships Sunk: 323 / 715 / 744 (321 for the year)
Japanese Ships Sunk: 188 / 416 / 446 (238 for the year)

Allies Ship Points Lost: 2,703 / 7,284 / 7494 (4,791 for the year)
Japanese Ship Points Lost: 1,629 / 3,577 / 3,787 (2,158 for the year)

Allied Points/Ship: 8.37 / 10.19 / 10.07 (14.93 for ships lost in 1943)
Japanese Points/Ship: 8.66 / 8.60 / 8.49 (9.07 for ships lost in 1943)

Allied Score: 13,252 / 22,859 / 23,978 (+10,726 for the year)
Japanese Score: 28,026 / 45,319 / 47,340 (+19,314 for the year)

Score Ratio (J:A): 2.11 / 1.98 / 1.97 (1.80 for the year)

Note that 1943 started in rough parity. The Japanese are definitely on the defensive, but wields serious power if the Allies are careless.

I'm pretty happy with the economic numbers. Oil's dropping as expected. Fuel is dropping a little, mainly because of my pretty extensive use of the fleet during the year. I'm not concerned at this point. Supply is rising with 2.4 mil in the Home Islands. Not sure what a good number is but as long as it increases each month over the next 6 months or so, I'll be happy.

I'm happy that I've still lost fewer planes than Ted too. I suspect some of that is because of the Japanese ability to ramrod good fighters through the R&D process. Ted is "stuck" with historical timelines.

The score ratio is dropping, a little too fast for my tastes.

Overall, I'm happy. We'll see what 1944 brings.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/24/2019 4:23:59 PM

mind_messing
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quote:

Supply is rising with 2.4 mil in the Home Islands. Not sure what a good number is but as long as it increases each month over the next 6 months or so, I'll be happy.

A good number is higher, much higher. Aim for 5 mil.

Supply consumption in Japan skyrockets in late '44 going in to '45.

Part of it is due to air combat (CAP, airbase supply hits ect), another part is due to your fortification efforts and the rest is feeding the IJA '45 panic reinforcements.

I'd start future-proofing the economy. With China an IJA protectorate, I'd draw supplies from there if at all possible. The local units can scrape by on the leavings and you could use the supply to start getting forts/airbases going in the Home Islands now.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/24/2019 7:23:00 PM

jdsrae
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I’ve been trying to forecast the many and varied demands on Supply and will post my graph of “known” Supply demands later.
I plan to use it to monitor and adjust for the unknowns related to the intensity (or not) of operations.
MM is right that demand for Supply will keep rising for the variety of reasons stated plus others. It’s not an exact science but at least the knowns can be planned for. Eg: at least 1 million of your stockpile will be used equipping new land and air units in 1945 and the sustainment cost of your forces will continue to rise.
From the numbers I’m crunching, I think it’s very hard to build a Supply stockpile above about 3 million without importing from somewhere.
You should try to bring back Supply excess from anywhere you can, like Java and Sumatra, once you think you’ve left enough in various places for delay operations.
China might provide some excess but I’d prepare Manchukuo for Soviet activation first, airfields and fort building, then leave lots for defensive operations.
What the graph has shown me is the need to be very selective with any supply export from Japan and what airfields and forts you choose to build, to try and limit those variables in the supply burn equation. Plus fight hard to keep the B29s out of range...

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 5/24/2019 7:24:44 PM >

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/25/2019 6:36:29 AM

jdsrae
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Just posted some details on my Supply forecast planning in this thread in the War Room.
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4636996&mpage=1&key=�

Your current supply stockpile of 2.4M is bang on what I'm aiming for in Jan 44.
If you can do a global review and see if there is any Supply sitting somewhere that you'd rather it be in Japan you could send it home.
Otherwise, the longer you can keep the allies from interfering with your industry from now on the more you will get ahead of the curve.

It's only really hit me from reading Miller's AAR recently that the clock really is ticking on the allies and there comes a point where they need to start taking some risks before it is too late to accumulate enough Victory Points.
I think your opponent is at that point in this game where he needs to start rolling the dice.
Most dangerous course of action from him now would be a concentrated drive from PNG to the Philippines. His recent sniffing around the Celebes could be a sign of more to come.
If he keeps mucking around in CENPAC he could just get stuck wasting precious time out there.

So are you happy with what you've got in place to defend the Philippines, with maybe Celebes and Java to be held as a delay screen?

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 5/25/2019 6:44:14 AM >

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/25/2019 11:47:28 AM

Lowpe
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The Allies are in decent shape, and only 1 invasion away from either Luzon or Hokkaido. They are not constrained for time yet.

I suspect too much of Japan's defensive strength is forward, and not enough is on Hokkaido, Luzon/Mindanao, Iwo, Marianas.

That is a guess on my part.

Japan's Navy is strong, and seems to have countered the Allies very well but the dynamic has changed so much now that it is 1944.

Japan's supply situation is strong but needs to get stronger. Almost all r&d is done, and that is a huge drag on supplies, so Japan's supply situation might actually be excellent.

We are nearing the point where the Allies normally form up massive invasion fleets, and quite frankly that is something that hasn't happened yet in this game. But then again, it might not happen either.

Does Japan have a strong reserve of ground troops able to quickly deploy?

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/27/2019 3:46:18 PM

Mike Solli
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Some notes on the last few posts...

I am shipping supply back to Japan, but usually from the transports hauling troops to the SRA. Right now I have some 52k supply headed back to Japan. Should have mentioned it in the notes. I do plan on increasing that when possible.

Current deployed forces:

Java
2 Div
38 Div
27 IMB
28 IMB
4 Tk Reg
8 Tk Reg
Yokosuka 4 SNLF
1 Ind SNLF Co
7 Ind SNLF Co

Saumlaki
65 Bde

Ambon
16 Div

Kendari
48 Div

Mindanao
33 IMB - will become 105 Div in 165 days
Misc bn & co sized units

Luzon
12 & 18 Grsn units - will become 94 Div in 286 days
30 IMB - will become 100 Div in 165 days
31 IMB - will become 102 Div in 165 days
32 IMB - will become 103 Div in 165 days

Babeldaob
Grsn Unit and 90 Reg - will become 49 Div in 4 days

Saipan
1 Gds Div
26 IMB

Tinian
Kure 5 SNLF

Rota
2 Grsn Unit - will become 51 IMB in 141 days
II/84 Naval Guard

Guam
3 Raiding Reg
Yokosuka 5 SNLF

Hokkaido
7 Div
3 Amph Bde
22 Tank Reg

Reinforcements
54 Naval Guard - 13 days - ?
55 Naval Guard - 13 days - ?
35 IMB - 39 days - Tinian
36 IMB - 39 days - Iwo Jima
37 IMB - 39 days - Mindanao
4 Amph Bde - 59 days - Hokkaido(?)
10 Exp Force (reg sized) - 59 days - ?
Iwo Jima Naval Guard - 73 days - Iwo obviously

China
110 Div (94 exp) - Rota
39 Div (97 exp) - Tinian
62 Div (94 exp) - Guam
6 Div (99 exp) - Saipan
9 Div (93 exp) - Luzon
? Div (90+ exp) - will be bought out probably tomorrow after the attack - Mindanao
I'll be able to buy out a Chinese division a month or a bde/IMB every 8-10 days from China for use in the Pacific.
Edit: These divisions will become available after Chungking falls, which is why I'm anxious to end that.

Also note that there are battalion sized units scattered all over.

< Message edited by Mike Solli -- 5/27/2019 3:48:26 PM >

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/27/2019 3:50:35 PM

Mike Solli
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Does Japan have a strong reserve of ground troops able to quickly deploy?

Nope

Troops are sent out as quickly as I get them. Some of the airmobile IMBs I buy out of China will become that reserve eventually.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/28/2019 12:58:40 PM

Lowpe
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You really, really need a fast mobile reserve. The Allies have generally speaking perfect knowledge of your ground troop placement, and they will simply bypass troop concentrations.

You have three priorities as I see it: Keep resources flowing till at least June of 1944, and prevent the Allies from getting 22-25 hexes of Honshu while always punching back somewhere, somehow. That doesn't mean counter every Allied offensive, but constantly look to gather VP on a favorable basis every day somewhere.

Look to air transport your General Defense ground troops to islands to help with close in perimeter building.

Seriously look at bringing a lot of your AA back from the extended perimeter to guard your industry.

I don't think your opponent reads the forum, so he might continue his current methods instead of concentrating. That would be good!

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 5/29/2019 11:18:21 AM

PaxMondo
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

Supply is rising with 2.4 mil in the Home Islands. Not sure what a good number is but as long as it increases each month over the next 6 months or so, I'll be happy.

A good number is higher, much higher. Aim for 5 mil.

Supply consumption in Japan skyrockets in late '44 going in to '45.

Part of it is due to air combat (CAP, airbase supply hits ect), another part is due to your fortification efforts and the rest is feeding the IJA '45 panic reinforcements.

+1

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 6/12/2019 2:48:56 AM

Zorch
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Anyone home? Or taking a vacation?

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 6/12/2019 12:06:32 PM

Mike Solli
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I'm impatiently waiting for the turn. The newest delay was Ted motherboard, which crapped out recently. And people complain about Macs...

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 6/13/2019 4:18:26 PM

Bif1961
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Motherboards, mothers-in-laws, all about the same.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 6/13/2019 4:41:12 PM

GetAssista
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bif1961
Motherboards, mothers-in-laws, all about the same.

You know what Board of directors is. Mother Board is almost the same

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 7/5/2019 3:07:49 PM

Mike Solli
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Just an update on what's (not) going on. No word from Ted. I sent Ted an email on 28 June about some non-WitP stuff we've been discussing. Post-retirement things and such. I intentionally did NOT mention WitP hoping he would mention it. There's been no response after a week. That's not normal.

I'm hoping it's his motherboard issue and not something else. I'm going to send an email to his work email hoping he sees that and responds. I'll let you know if I get any word.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 7/8/2019 10:48:26 PM

rustysi
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Hope all is well.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 7/9/2019 1:58:59 AM

Zorch
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They're just trying to set the record for longest running game.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 7/9/2019 5:17:27 PM

rustysi
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Don't they already have it?

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 7/9/2019 8:08:39 PM

Chickenboy
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Doubtful. I started a WiTP:AE PBEM game with my first opponent USSHenrico in 2010. We got into mid-1943 when he dropped off the grid. I think there were some health issues there. He hasn't been here since and I've never received any emails or phone calls since.

But it's still his turn.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 7/9/2019 8:16:45 PM

Zorch
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Doubtful. I started a WiTP:AE PBEM game with my first opponent USSHenrico in 2010. We got into mid-1943 when he dropped off the grid. I think there were some health issues there. He hasn't been here since and I've never received any emails or phone calls since.

But it's still his turn.

Wonder what the island garrisons are up to.

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(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 4646

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 12/22/2019 4:12:16 AM

Hanzberger
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Bumping this thread to honor these guys. Anyone know what ever happened? Where is Mike?

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Post #: 4647

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 12/22/2019 8:25:18 PM

rustysi
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Seems to me he picked up a couple of other games and has no time now.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 12/23/2019 3:52:44 AM

Hanzberger
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Joined: 4/26/2006
From: SE Pennsylvania
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Seems odd not to have Mike post anything since July.

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Planning for #17 Ironman Tier2

Japan AC wire chart here
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2769286&mpage=1&key=?

(in reply to rustysi)

Post #: 4649

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 12/23/2019 3:00:27 PM

Chickenboy
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Seems to me he picked up a couple of other games and has no time now.

That's kind of been his MO for years. On deployment and radio silence and then returns to a fit of activity. Hope he's doing well wherever he is.

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(in reply to rustysi)

Post #: 4650

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